Putin Removes Sergei Shoigu as Russian Defense Minister || Peter Zeihan
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- Опубликовано: 13 май 2024
- Note: At the time of recording, Sergei Shoigu still held the title of Defense Minister in Russia. Shortly after this video was recorded, Putin confirmed my suspicions and removed Sergei Shoigu from office.
Well, I hate to say it, but Putin might actually be making a solid strategic move by removing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu from office.
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#russia #putin #defenseminister
As someone who lived in Poznań for a few years, it felt surreal to learn that Mr. Zeihan was recording from there. 😅
Yeah, I'm from Poznań and I had to play it back three times because I couldn't believe what I'm hearing lol He's there because of Impact'24.
@@Theadalas same here, funny thing, i dont know where that fountain is but the moment i saw it i knew its somwhere in Poland, even before i heard Poznań
Oh, it’s Poznań. I couldn’t get his pronounciation
@@T0m3kPL Park Mickiewicza is my guess.
He’s getting closer and closer to “the action”😏
The biggest Shock here isn't that Shoigu is getting replaced, that was always going to happen at some point (altough I'll admit, I thought it would happen way sooner). He's also getting replaced by Andrei Belousov, an economist, which makes sense given Russia's financial situation. But to me, the biggest surprise is that Shoigu is replacing the national security council's current head, Nikolai Patrushev. Patrushev has by many been seen as Putin's "nr 2.", and I didn't expect him to get canned. It could mean Putin is becoming concerned with the loyalties of the security council, and if that is the case, then placing Shoigu there as the head of the council makes perfect sense.
Good point. It might not be a play on competence. It might be a play on paranoia.
Patrushev's son got a promotion at the same time, and power under Putin isn't necessarily attached to job titles. Need to wait and see where Nikolai ends up.
Yep. Putin has been circling the wagons for a while, but it has accelerated recently. He is assigning the most loyal (regardless of competence) to positions of power and the less loyal seems to be accident prone near windows.
@@jonlittle5032 Agree. I assume he is shifting to some other role, maybe for some planned change in government structure. This isn't good news I don't believe.
So Shoigu...got promoted??
SHOIGU! GERASIMOV! 😂😂😂😂 man I miss prigozhin he’d be loving this
Where's my fucking shells!!! Lol
It looks like that maniac was right.
He did add a little flair to the whole thing as awful as that sounds
Remember when he went to Rostov & local base there , and gave the GRU officer guys a live streaming dressing down?
Made these two oldtimers look like schoolboys!
Man sure as hell was a character!
Putin even took quite late to the tv speech , to beg the public to remain on his side , while oligarchs were fleeing out of Moscow on their private jets.....
It's a shame he was so stupid to abort the coup , but then again he was a w^^ criminal.....
Peter Zeihan here from Poznań Poland, OMFG 🍻. I hope you have a good time here.
WOW! Shoigu being replaced is bad news. The good news is that the weapons don't change, and morale won't improve overnight.
Morale can improve quickly.
maybe we should've sent Ukraine everything we had BEFORE russians learn.
More good news is that the replacement also has no military experience
Don't worry, now they have an economist, who's only qualification is he's putin's buddy
@@TheChadSmithPodcast - agreed. Bad part is if he’s actually a patriot trying to do a good job.
Couple of details
1. In Russia minister of defense is head of the army, not "the manager". The manager was Timur Ivanov that was arrested last week.
2. Belousov (new MoD) is from academia, he has no military experience.
3. Belousov is fan of plan economy.
Everybody is fan of a planned economy in war time.
@RemusCroft - Thanks for that info!
Sounds like it could be "more of the same" from Belousov.
An academic, no military experience, loves a "planned economy" - sounds like a guy that Ukraine would be happy with as the Russian Defense Minister.
Belousov is directly at the centre of Russia's Africa foreign policy. He is solely responsible for the French being kicked out of Africa. Don't underestimate the guy.
@@gaius_enceladusman, he lied in 2 or 3 sentense.
@@user-jw5gs3cz8gBot?
Best regards from Poznań Poland! As I watch it, I am 1,5km from where you stand in this video. I was quite suprised, when You said Poznań instead of Colorado :]
Thank you.
99% of the people watching this video cannot name the defense minister of their own country.
Thanks!
Very steady hand Mr. Zeihan ... very steady. 😊
What they really need is a good Offense Minister.
😂
😂
Zeihan: "Shoigu is probably the most incompetent public figure in the world."
Kamala Harris: cackles
@@LRRPFco52 Harris cackles: How quickly we forget #45.
No, what they need is to stop occupying Ukraine and offer up their war criminals for justice as the international court
Minister does not need to be a military. That’s a job of generals. He needs to be a good administrator.
And not steal
Of course! Shoigu never served in the military and the Russian army is obviously the best in the world.
@@onetrickpony4179 The Russian army *is* the best in the world in defending territory. It has demonstrated that many times and it is demonstrating it now.
@onetrickpony4179 the best in the world in taking huge losses.
@Shinshocks555 I know dissing on russia is an american pass time and some of it is warranted, but really ? The Red army had nothing do with breaching berlin ?
I am honestly worried about this, since the guy replacing Shoigu might actually be competent.
He is an economist.Not military at all. He is most likely tasked with putting the economy on a war footing. Watch the security service.
Impossible. Socialist societies don't make productive people
America is more socialist than Russia @@visitante-pc5zc
He is somehow more competent but not that much. He has even less military experience - literally zero, not even mandatory army training, he avoided even the mandatory Soviet draft. His job will be squeezing money from Russian businesses to find the war. He is old Soviet economist (he is in Russian politics since Brezhnev) with very little interest in military, even now his first speech was not about how to do war in Ukraine but that was veterans need priority treatment in Russian civil hospitals, and their kids and siblings etc... This is seems not to be about getting someone better to lead defence more like getting rid of shoigu for some reason
@@xlukas93he doesn't need military experience. He is there to get russias finances in order to maintain a long drawn out war. He can delegate military matter to the generals to do their job.
Thank you
Pleasure having You in Poznan cheers.
Nobody got sacked . People got changed in function . Not to mention it can be seen as a promotion as his new function has more influance inside the country
So long as you know what MATTERS IS MATH
Leaders like Putin have a common characteristic; they do not immediately change figures who have a certain faults 'cause this would lead distrust in the eyes of the society both towards him and the figures under him. So they leave these changes for more favourable times, as in the case of Shoigu. The decision to remove Shoigu for example was taken after Prigozhin's Wagner uprising.
Unfortunately for your theory, Shoigu was just promoted to one of the most powerful positions in Russia.
One of Prigozhin's objectives in his sort of rebellion was to replace Shoigu because Shoigu wouldn't let him take charge of overall strategy. Shoigu immediately stopped whatever it was that Prighozin was trying to accomplish with his threatening troop movements, and stripped Prighozin of authority over the Wagner group. Shoigu had it renamed and restructured making it more effective in carrying out Russian policy. The renamed Wagner group is now causing considerable, high profile defeats for France and the U.S. in Africa. It is likely that the Afrika Corps success in Africa doesn't mean anything to you but the billion people living in Africa as certainly taking note.
@@ronarnett4811 this is exactly correct, im just amazed at how horrible Zeihan is at reading situations.
I know that he doesnt want Russia to be good nor do well but he just cant deny whats happening in the world and on the ground in Ukraine which is why noone should take Zeihan the clown seriously but he has just invested so much for Russia to do horrible that hes gonna have egg on his face when this is over...
Thanks Peter.
Thank you for sharing your input spot on Peter Zehian .. 😊
Informative.
We'll see if there is any improvement. I have serious doubts.
I was wondering how you made all those videos with you walking... mostly in Colorado with such clear video and sound. Your glasses provided the perfect clue to the technique. A bit more info on type of phone would be interesting and what, how, who is editing the video on what machine. You have a very steady hand while walking!
Don't underestimate Belousov. He is not military but he knows how to manage Military-industrial complex in order to the army needs. More over Belousov isn't corrupt. Unfortuntly it`s not good news for Ukrdine, he is Minister of Defense.
The whole system is corrupt. Changing the minister changes VERY little.
Russia's MIC is smaller than France's . Europe's MICs are 26 times greater than Russia's war machine . It is David against Goliath in war material manufacturing his selection will trim off the waste from corruption but will add no new lethality to what Russia already produces in the war so you are correct that he is a better choice but I see no increase in overall Lethality .
"Belousov isn't corrupt"...good one! Lol!
Lmao "isn't corrupt", he's Russian. 😂😂😂
That " not corrupt" comment is hard to believe. This is russia, after all.
I doubt it!
Peter any developments/updates in the Caucasus'.
Wroclaw not that far from Poznan, feel invited:) great to host you Peter in Poland. My personal request related to your visit in Poland, please "record" all interesting comments, observation and insights shared by poles you are going to be expose to and translate it into you America perspective. My point is to get your feeling about people here and especially about their mindset according to all circumstances taking place close to Poland borders but also with respect to global conditions. Have fun, all the best!
Though not in Poland, but Romania, still interested in these comments, as some still apply to us as well. Thank you!
❤
„Every Russian war starts as a disaster and ends in a catastrophe, as seen with every major Russian military engagement in the last 180 years.“
not really true
@@TheDa6781 Actually it is.
propaganda
@jonlittle503 ww2 says otherwise
@cmanlovespancakes ww2 was won by american cash and supplies
Poznań! Enjoy the Poland , Peter
Love the green sunnies 🌟
Napoleon once said: ‘Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself.’ Sad to see Shoigu go… 😂
well.. remember he put a cook
/caterer in charge of some group once.. 🤭
And they conducted successful operations around the world. And fielded the bots we keep seeing.
The cook was smart enough leave military decisions to his military leaders. He focused on the politics and interfacing with media like a good cibvilian leader should. Shoigu was more hands on with regards to mlitary matters be cause he had the delusion of being militarily knowledgeable.
Prigozhin made a lot of meat cubes out of his own men
Lets hope not
Peter's sunglasses collection is second to none...just calling it as I see it.
He speaks very highly of YOU, you know,
Regarding competence, I don't see the replacement of Shoigu as being military competent either. The general in charge of the new Kharkiv offensive, the one that bogged down after 3 miles is Lapin - one of the most incompetent generals the Russian have. Very corrupt and nepotist to boot.
The move is apparently connected to health issues of Patrushev. Putin used Patrushev and Shoigu to balance each other but with Patrushev having to go it was too dangerous to leave Shoigu at his post. Shoigu's new post is powerless but he is "kept in reserve" for now.
…and so it begins!!
Wow Poznan??!! I lived there for a bit. It's a charming city
There’s no recovery and turn around this time because there’s no Lend Lease Act, but rather sanctions that will hamper Russian industry, along with the inability to stop Ukraine from disrupting their most vital industries.
What were you up to in Poland? Any interesting conference talks coming out? :)
Yet again you predicted the war really well
We'll see who they put there instead..
Hey Peter! Off topic, would you be interested in doing a video on some start-up (or relatively new) lithium refining companies that you think will take off?
History really does repeat itself. This is eerily similar to another dictator replacing his Minister Of Armaments And War Production with a young architect named Albert Speer in 1942... It also reeks of desperation.
Sure
Maybe it's too late now for them.
Very interesting!! Shoigu was the Ukraine's best weapon!! Great location, I adjusted the volume 10x thinking there was static!! Thanks for that!
... you can't see the fountain behind him?
Pulling a page off the old Soviet playbook, put in a loyal civlian beancounter in charge of the military while trouble brews.
Yep, classic Soviet tactic. Put civilians in charge of the military so it can't challenge the dictator. And then put soldiers in charge of the civilians for the same reason.
As boring and unsexy as they are, you DO need beancounters. A really competent one is worth gold. Wars are mindboggling expensive.
@@peterflohr7827 Perhaps, but in this context beancounters is just a vehicle to find "Corruption" that is then used to purge a bunch of folks and consolidate power. Soviets used to do that sort of thing every couple of years.
Prigozhin grave like 😮
Let's hope that replacing one guy has little effect on Russian corruption, cronyism, and incompetence. It's Ukraine's biggest advantage.
This is scary.....
sup my boi
A Grim Prospect…
We need a Ryan Macbeth and Peyer Zeihan collaboration ... that'd be a great conversation
Hey hey now at least we know they are going to making choices based on cost.
Russian third-graders are pretty smart, on average, relative to ours in USA.
Some comments say that the new minister is bad news for Ukraine because he is competent, but the new function Shoigu has is a promotion, its more important then def minister as far is i understand.
They replaced him with a guy who also doesn't have any military experience.
You know, he got promoted to head of security council!
The willingness to take heavy losses is definitely a 'feature' of the Russian war machine.
Sacked for battlefield failures born in Mongolia which boarders China who have been studying the battlefield on behalf of Putin and working closely alongside Shoigu therefore he’s hardly responsible for battlefield failures it’s merely an excuse for him to duck out and depart
Welcome to Poland, Peter : )
So what’s going to happen to Shoigu now? Will he quietly be allowed to retire? Or will he be flying a in Boeing plane where the door comes off as he drinks his tea?
"Woooo here comes the plane.... wooo"
He actually got a promotion but Zeihan lacking such fundamental understandings of russian politics doesnt understand this...
Welcome to Poland 🇵🇱
The guy they've chosen to replace Shoigu has zero military experience.
If he played at least one hour of any paradox game he is already more qualifoed than Shoigu
If Belousov is anything like western economists, Ukraine will be fine.
He’s just officially transitioned into a war economy. The new guy is some hotshot economist after all. Seems they’re in it for the long run.
We can only hope that his successor is even dumber and less competent, which indeed is a long shot. Then again, Russians have knack for surprising me in this field over and over again. Better yet, Shoigu was practically promoted, not demoted. Let's see how he will fare in his new job.
He is now a part of that group that is deciding how to finish off the US if NATO doesn't back off.
It will be interesting if these officials just accept the cut to their wealth
Upcoming video: Peter is discussing van der Layen's achievements as a defence minister of Germany.
Ironic that this is basically what Prigozhin was attempting to accomplish when he got himself unalived.
Hi from Warszawa, Poland 😊 Hope you're having a great time in PL. 👍🏻🇵🇱
the other one accidentally fell off the roof.
The guy is perheps a new krupp?
The replacement for Shoigu has an economics background. This is a rather strong signal that Russia is worried about running out of money to fight the war. The Ukraine attacks on oil fields must be having an impact.
Or he is just someone who Putin trusts or at the very least doesn't fear.
Or maybe they are very worried about NATO joining the war remember what Lavrov said that russia was getting ready for that scenario.
@@renehernandez3053Nato is heavily involved, already.
@@Chain987 but arent fighting with their men yet.
@@renehernandez3053 what do you think who is working behind complicated ballistic systems from the west? Who is doing constant surveillance above? That's not involvement?
Will he be permitted to keep his spine?
Why are you in Poland ?
He got his orders.
What’s with all the fires in Poland??
“We will take not one Muslim refugee”-
Brilliant
Dude, Peter!!
If I knew before that you were going to be in Poland for an event, I would buy a ticket, please announce events you will attend when you are booked so your fans can come over and see you especially if they are nearby :D
its 8900 or 2400 PLN/ticket... out of my capabilities :/
I would definitely go, just got the online ticket but if I didn’t hear Peter saying he is in Poland, and if I didn’t research why is he in Europe, I would even know
Shoigu couldn’t get the ammo
“Shoigu…. Garisimov ….. where are the bullets”
Poznań, Poland? WHY I DONT KNOW ABOUT IT??? WOULD LOVE TO SEE YOU LIVE!
Quick search and he's speaking tomorrow morning at the impact'24 conference in Poznan in the morning.
@@piotrb4240 2400 PLN cheapest ticket, 9800 regular one. Kinda to expensive for most of us.
Still thanks for info!
@@piotrb4240 Yes. 2400 cheapest, 9600 PLN regular ticket. not for everyone for sure... :/
@@IzaiPokusa Why do you think all these people descended on Poznan? Not because it’s a nice town, they need to eat 😊. So the price is also set accordingly.
But Peter, what do you really feel about Shoigu? I mean... don't hold back.
mission accomplished. 3rd grader appointed. one who can count. an economist.
Why is water spewing out from your head?
If Shoigu got the job initially, Putin doesn't require (or doesn't recognize) competence. That likely hasn't changed.
🇨🇦♥️🇺🇦
Shoigu making so that russian industrial output outproduces the entire west is incompetent? You might want to take a look at our own western politicians before you criticize him.
What have our western leaders accomplished in the last 2 years except making a total fool out of ourselves?
Was not removed really. Putin has started a new term after the election and presented new ministers. Shoigu is now nro. 2 in the security council where also the minister of defense is member. I may consider that a higher position.
I went to germany. Great place!!!
0:17 Worse than MAYORKAS?!
That's terrible!
That’s bad
Shoigu was chief of MCHS (russian emercom) for 20 years before that. Did you know?
Welcome to Poland!
Oh, I dunno; by 1943 they'd gotten to be about as good at the operational level as the Germans.
Russian Defense Minister is not accurate. We should call him Get Vodka For the Troops Minister
😂 funny but disconnected from reality
@0:49 Your Iowa style cynicism/trash talking is a real tribute to our state. Well played, sir!
How likely is it now for France to actually move into Ukraine to help? I see Ukraine falling, and that is troubling for a number of reasons.
Sacked today, off to Siberia tomorrow.
If he's lucky.
What Peter said , the Ukraine is so screwed from this point forward.
Removal implies something negative, the guy was actually promoted.
next question is, is he going to *remove* him though