Yup... those intercepted phone calls we've seen across the internet and the incidents on the news seem to support this that the Russian soldiers are getting disgruntled
Trueee smhhhh when they made this video they said the war hasn’t even beeen going on for 10 days yet when as of today we are on day 43 with the war of Russia invasion of Ukraine
I just got to “11 days into this war”, making it March 5th. Since then, a lot of POWs have confirmed they were told they’d be greeted as liberators, others were told they’d get rich (suggesting that looting was encouraged from early on). The POWs were bitter that they were lied to, but we also have indicators that the planners and politicians were buying in to the lie. They were buying their own bullshit. I wonder also how much doubts were suppressed: loyalty is valued over competence at the highest levels-competence is actually punished when it conflicts with loyalty, and leadership is told what it wants to hear. Thus the echo chamber.
@@pensacola2015 Found same picture on line. A company called 'twistedsifter' changes the faces on old portraits of Russian generals. This one is Patrick Stewart. I can't download pictures on here but it is easy to find.
As silly as it may be for some to assume that Russia "has no PGM's because we haven't seen them", it seems equally silly to assume they have them because they've used them in other conflicts. The assumption then being that the expended munitions were replaced by new production or an initial stockpile that has not been depleted.
Armoured vehicles without sufficient protection equals armoured vehicle suicide, especially in an urban environment. Even though it sounds ridiculous they need numerous other support units to protect them otherwise they're sitting ducks for UAV's, drones and well hidden infantry with ATGM's..... as we've seen many times.
We might have seen a lot of urban combat videos (coming out of Mariupol primarily), but a lot of “aftermath” videos seem to be isolated units ambushed on narrow fronts-basically fronts as wide as a roadway. And you have a good point (as was discussed in this video), that tanks and rifle units operating independently are a recipe of disaster. But even when we see spearhead columns with tanks and accompanying APCs, we’re not seeing dismounted soldiers engaging in effective security for the tanks. Instead, we are seeing slow response, slow dismounting, and resulting carnage. We are seeing the tanks just sitting there and not orienting towards the threat. I just re-watched that one video of a column entering a town, being hit by pre-registered artillery and then ATGMs in the ensuing chaos. Most of the column does survive, didimau-ing back the way they came.
In the bigger picture, Putin did not want to get bogged down in this the way the Soviet Union got stuck in Afghanistan or the way the US did as well. He sent in a small force, not sufficient for enough for a brute force invasion but hoping that Ukraine would fold. Once they realized that the large cities would not fold easily, they stuck around long enough to pin down large numbers of Ukrainian troops while they did what they wanted to do in the south and south east. In a conventional war the ratio of attackers to defenders is 3 to 1. Russia had 1 attacker for every 3 Ukrainians defending or more. This proves my point. Anyways now Ukraine is more or less cut off from the ocean and now if both sides don't agree to peace, Russia now has a solid foothold in the Russian majority areas and will likely conduct a pincer maneuver with heavy airpower, artillery, basically a real combined arms offensive in the southeast. Remember the length of the front that Russia was fighting on recently was greater than that of operation Barbarosa. Now however, they're scaling it down and concentrating on specific areas and sending in fresh reinforcements.
@@mistergeopolitics4456 By most reasonable estimations, the Russians have committed roughly 40% of their standing ground military to this effort in Ukraine. That is not a "small force". Moreover, it has been a disproportionately high amount of first tier or "elite" forces committed as well. The VDV, the 331st Guards Paras, the 3rd Guards Tank Division, the Naval Infantry.... these are not "scrub" forces they could afford to lose. What does appear to be happening, however, is that Russia is losing the mobilization race. Putin appears keenly aware of the political impact a national mobilization would have and is trying hard to avoid one. He knows that calling up reservists would be deeply unpopular and stop lossing current conscripts would be even worse. Particularly considering he sold this as a "special military operation". The Ukrainians, in sharp contrast, are rapidly trying to mobilize the one MILLION reservists they have into maneuver units and the rest of the entire male population into Territorial Defense units. As those numbers swell, Russia will not have a good answer for the upcoming force imbalance. One can speculate about the reasons Putin is not mobilizing, but the primary one appears to be his deep distrust of the military in general. Remember, he comes from an internal security background and is deeply suspicious of the military as a political rival. He might front as Stalin, but he is Beria and he is clever enough and educated enough to remember how Zhukov put an end to him before he got going. That part also explains the complete lack of theater level command. The most charitable description of this effort in Ukraine would be that it is a Fury Road style mob effort with competing agendas. Fronts, service branches, or even units within fronts don't appear to be coordinating with one another. And Putin's desperate attempts at recruiting foreign fighters that don't even speak Russia seem to back this idea that he is less interested in military competence than he is concerned about a rising political rival. Under those circumstances, there will be no mobilization. There will be no help coming. This force of 190k that he started with (and is likely down to about 150k at this writing) is all he's getting to complete his military and political objectives against a swelling wave of highly motivated and NATO equipped Ukrainians. The fabled Russian steamroller is not coming.
@@junahn1907 What are you talking about ? The Americans had said that Russia had deployed between 170-190,000 troops at the most. Russia has a standing army of over 1 million and 2 million reservists. It's not even a contest of mobilization between Ukraine and Russia. In the big picture could Russia take Ukraine if they really wanted to. Yes. But would it be worth the price paid in gold, blood and the cost of rebuilding all the destroyed and ruined cities ? No.Also Russia has been outnumbered in every single front in Ukraine. The Kiev front had 40,000 Russian troops deployed. This force was never meant to take Kiev. To take a city you need a ratio of 3 to 1 going on the offensive at the very least. Russia was outnumbered 3 to 1 if not by more so it wouldn't make sense. What they manage to do however was pin down hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops in the north while they took vital land in the south and south east. Ukraine has been cut off from the sea and Russia will now be focusing completely on the Russian majority areas. If peace talks don't work out, you will see the end result.
@@junahn1907 You realize that sheer numbers don't win wars. It's about the quality of troops. Forced conscription with hasty training will rarely produce anything close to a professional force. You also have to clothe, feed and arm all of those people so at some point it becomes more of a liability just having large masses of untrained, hungry men on the field without enough ammunition. That's what you call cannon fodder. Russia actually has a standing army of 1 million men well armed, Ukraine can field 1 million men but they won't be well armed or trained. In the big picture for Putin to commit to Ukraine unconditionally would be like how the US committed to Afghanistan for 20 years. What did the US and their NATO allies get in the end ? Nothing and they were utterly humiliated by a bunch of rag tag villagers infront of the entire world and had to flee in haste. NATO would have loved it if Putin had took the bait in Ukraine. However he did not. At the same time Russia will not abandon the ethnic Russians in Ukraine. They've already managed to liberate most of the Russian majority land so why would they give it back to Ukraine now ? Crimea and Donbas are Russian, Ukraine just has to face the reality. Already a quarter of all Ukrainians are refugees and all their cities are ruined, their industrial capacity destroyed, military cohesion shattered and they have lost access to the sea. They can negotiate in good faith or they will face severe repercussions. Already Russia's currency has recovered 90% of its value back from before the sanctions. The sanctions won't work on Russia in the long run.
And it works . . . for a short time. Wrt to Iraq, we were greeted as liberators when we took Bagdad, but the honeymoon didn’t last. We might have done better in Afghanistan if those forces used in Iraq were used to secure the Afghanistan countryside. Do you remember seeing videos of pallets of cash being sent to Iraq? We smirk now about Russian corruption undermining the military, but we haven’t been immune. One of the big differences between this current conflict and the U.S. experience in Iraq is while Putin’s advisors are telling him what he wants to hear, Bush’s problem was his senior advisors (VP Cheney and SecDef Rumsfeld) were telling Bush what THEY wanted him to hear. They steered Bush into the war. It’s still his responsibility for surrounding himself with these assholes, but (imho) I don’t think he would have attacked Sadam Hussein if he hadn’t been fed faulty intelligence by those with their own agenda. But maybe my attempt to soften Bush is for nothing, because in the end, it was his decision. Another difference is that the U.S. led alliance won the war and lost the peace. As things stand, I don’t think Russia can even win its war against Ukraine.
Well, when they don’t know, they say it. It’s quite interesting that some of the unknowns have developed in unexpected ways, others followed relatively predictable courses, and others are still unknown. For example, it seems pretty clear now that an amphibious assault towards Odessa is off the table, with the Russian Black Sea fleet severely damaged with its flagship destroyed, among other vessels. Even Snake Island is being harassed and Russia can only support it at great risk-at least one and maybe two relief vessels were destroyed. Russia just doesn’t have the assets to make a viable amphibious thrust towards Odessa. Mariupol has only just come under effective Russian control, but even now there are still hold outs. That’s been a surprise. Putin’s meddling hand is still visible as the Russians have shifted their forces east after retreating from the battle of Kyiv. These shifted forces have been committed prematurely before they could be rebuilt to meet Putin’s May 9th timetable. Gains have been slow and costly. (I think this was somewhat predictable, although not on March 5th when this video was shot.) More generals and upper echelon officers have been killed or injured. There have been successful cross border raids. The biggest unknown is when Putin will decide he’s had enough. When will he realize that, even if the Russian military makes some gains, it’s not improving his negotiating position? As things stand, he will be lucky to get symbolic concessions if he ceases hostilities and withdraws Russian forces, but at least he would stop the bleeding.
Do you know of any more recent videos featuring Kofman? By random chance (and the blessings of the Almighty Algorithm) I’ve come across some good sources of long form high level overviews. Justin Bronk has been featured on Ward Carrol’s aviation channel. (I think Bronk works for or is associated with RUSI, in fact). Another is high level analysis by an Australian guy named Perun. His channel was originally game related, but it turns out his real job all along was military analysis. Since the start of hostilities, he’s re-oriented the channel towards the latter.
Complains about US media and their propaganda, but has no problem with Russian and Chinese probaganda media, it is not a more accurate / objective perspective, it's just the other side's perspective. If we talk about how the man was 20 years ago I would agree with you that it would be nice to hear from Scott Ritter. Unfortunately, not many people did that at the time, and I do not know if it is the disappointment of being right but almost no one listens to you, and idiots even makes fun of your good analyzes that have made Scott Ritter fall as far into the depths as he is today. A true waste to the abilities of an intelligent man. He is today as credible as CNN is today, they have also lost all credibility. There was a time when CNN was not a reality show.....
If Scott Ritter had not lost all credibility himself, he could today see one of the greatest idiots Joe Biden ruin his entire legacy, Biden risks being remembered as one of the worst politicians in U.S. history. But okay Scott Ritter can at least say he was once a good man, that's more than Putin and Biden can boast about.
I have now painted my my study in the same blue-grey colour, that Mr Koffman has on his walls. My books and paintings come across very nice with that shade as a background.
At the very least, you would think Russia would want to achieve air superiority, target air bases and air defense systems, their efforts just seem lackluster in that area.
@@litesp Took way too long. And resulted in no or minimal air cover for their forces. Weeks into the war and Ukraine is still flying drones? What a failure of the Russian Air Force.
I've recently found your channel. Thank you for it. I'm not sure if it has been already covered but what are looking at in terms of foreign fighters, quantity and for broader world/Russian politics. I don't think it gets enough coverage.
A month later, it’s not clear that Ukraine’s foreign volunteers have been militarily significant, although they seem to create a sense of international participation and solidarity-in another words, they are serving a propaganda purpose quite effectively. (And I’m not saying that volunteers aren’t seeing action.) On the Russian side, their volunteers don’t seem to be contributing significantly either, unless you count war crimes and terrorizing the population. While Russia hasn’t organized an Einsatzgruppen formally, the Chechnyan volunteers seem to be playing that role on an ad hoc basis. Their propaganda value seems to be negative, although I don’t know how that plays domestically in Russia (and I suspect it doesn’t get played at all).
Good video. On a different note: You look like you're using a phone camera in a restroom stall. The light background and back-lighting make you appear very dark.
I must say as a cold war soldier, after seeing the performance of the russian army units, if the Russians attacked our soldiers in Germany, the United States would have kicked their ass, flat out, it would be so bad it would escalate to nuclear weapons very fast because of russian loses.
I feel regime change supposition makes little sense, any peace agreement necessary to accomplish the stated goals would need to be signed by the recognized leader of Ukraine for it to hold water. That is core so if our hypothesis includes it, our analysis will implicitly be off the mark.
>any peace agreement necessary to accomplish the stated goals would need to be signed by the legitimate leader of Ukraine for it to hold water Poroshenko and Zelensky after him recognized as legitimate leaders, despite the events that lead them to power
@@ВячеславСкопюк Imprecise, I know. Perhaps I should have worded it differently and said "recognized leader" instead of legitimate, that's another complex discussion, I suppose. I will edit it.
@@OctavChelaru Being completely honest I think it is highly unlikely that after invading the entire country of Ukraine with about 5-6 different army groups from multiple directions that Putin gives a damn about international recognition. What do you think the Russians were going to do when they got into Kyiv? I doubt they would have left Zelensky in power when they seem so focused on uprooting neo-Nazis and any firm opposition to Russia.
Astonishing. An Army without NCO’s. Therefore without discipline. Arming young single men far from home with deadly weapons, without bothering with strong discipline is insane. We see the results.
Its not an army, at least many of its constituent pieces don't really behave like an army. At the core, many of their line units are outgrowths of the criminal syndicate that we mistake for a state, and they act exactly like you would expect armed gang members to behave. They have spent more effort on how to send back, fence and courier loot than how to actually fight, because thats their priority.
How do we know what to believe? Many people make statements but few give the sources of information for us to inspect. So we can't tell the veracity or the applicability of their statements. This makes the whole business uncertain.
The tooth to tail is interesting. Was watching Ryan Macbeth talking about how Americans have a 10:1 tooth to tail ratio and in russia its like 4:1. Seems like a bad idea. The conscripts should be the ones in the rear running the supply lines not getting pushed towards entrenched ukrainian positions
Really? I watch for the comedy value of watching him scramble to walk back years of russia-fluffing😂 also, saying the vdv did alright, gimme a break. Hes a narcissistic, condescending idiot.
The big outcome of the war is the effect of NLAW, Javelin drones and surface to air missiles such as the stinger missiles and what happens when there is no effective counter responses.
@@brianbozo2447 also, how to use infantry properly vs very poorly. But honestly, every single idiotic mistake one could possibly make has literally been made by the Z mob.
@@brianbozo2447 those aren't bug outcomes. Those are obvious outcomes of modern conventional weapons being used in a modern conventional war. Doing what they're designed to do, on both sides-all other things being equal. Drones, people in the military and that float around that milieu, knew their effectiveness. Known vefore Nagorno-Karabakh, before fighting ISIS, etc., ATGMs, since 1973 and Israeli armor being dropped by Egyptian ATGM teams, it's known. Hell, the US had to prevent the import of the RPG-29 into Iraq (for the new Iraqi military) because it is so effective and the threat was so severe. And that long rid is unguided and might as well engage at a "danger close" range. SAMs, since Gary powers was shot down by Soviet SA-2s, or North Vietnam, or Egypt in the Sinai in 1973. Highly lethal and birthed dedicated SEAD/DEAD tactics. MANPADS. Again, there's a reason why there are such strict import/export restrictions on them. We don't even supply them to the "moderate rebels" when we wage regime change wars. They're *ALL* effective. Putragiously effective. As usual and as is normal in warfare. They're are counters to all of these But, so what. Airplanes, SAMS, MBTs, ATGMs, infantry and guns that kill them easily *all* are still used. Nothing needs under the sun in terms of this. War is a system of systems. In one symbiotic relationship with one another-both friendly and hostile. It seems people got used to the "terror war" wars, and rebel backed proxy regime change wars were what modern wars are. Far from. Modern warfare and the modern weapons used therein are lethal and very effective when used by highly trained, proficiently lead, properly equipped, highly motivated. And as a result. Casualties will be high, tempos and material losses will be high. It's modern warfare. It's fast, it's lethal, and brutal.
How is it possible the Russian military could underperform so egregiously? I suspect they either failed to do their Intel work....or ignored it...which might be worse because it suggests an ideological or intellectual blind spot. Either way, they went in without a good plan...or a plan at all. If the Russians had planned they would not be caught on roads. They would've maneuvered along but not on roads which would allow them to both avoid ambushes, maneuver in appropriate formations (not in column) and threaten to encircle ambushing forces which clears the road supply routes for the soft logistics targets. Then consolidate at critical road junctions or bridges...with bridging equipment. They seem to have been completely unaware that Ukraine would blow their own bridges and rail lines to interdict Russian incursions. They abandoned the vaunted Russian doctrines of mass, penetration, exploitation. I don't think they forgot. They just underestimated the enemy and failed to plan and execute accordingly. This all starts with Failed Military Intelligence. Russia lost an awful lot of senior field leaders. When your plan fails this badly...that's Justice.
The ground along the roads is too soft to drive on, especially in this part of the year. That explains why you see farmers pull abandoned tanks out of the mud of their own fields.
@@vsiegel Another Intel failure. Compounded by a Reconnaissance failure. Much of this terrain is oft tilled farmland. It's fairly obvious that will get real soft when it thaws. They need to fire their weatherman.
putin told his generals what he wanted and told them to make it happen his generals were evidently a bunch of yes men and afraid to tell him its a bad time to attack weather wise so they went ahead and attacked while they crossed their fingers and hoped for the best.
You guys are so misinformed that it's embarrassing. You know nothing about what's going on except the fake information being fed by the MSM which fits your bias for Ukraine.
*Is it possible that Putin simply intends to take the southern region surrounding the sea of Azov, along with the Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea and the eastern "Donbas" region?*
@@evbuzzi6749 Russia could destroy the whole world if it wants as could America. He lost because he failed to take out the Government, that’s how war works…you take out the government and put your own puppet in charge. So he’s failed miserably and the world can now see the rust bucket Russian army, it’s incompetence. NATO could take out that army in an afternoon.
April 7 this analysis stands up pretty well. Russia is indeed failing "slow and expensive." I'm curious about his conclusion that the military planners were left out of military planning. I'm hoping we'll learn the details of that eventually. It seems like a critical weakness in the Russian state.
I think what really happened was that Putin knew that his cabinet has more leaks than a North Korean fishing vessel, so he left just about everyone out of the planning phase. In his mind, the element of surprise was more valuable than good logistics, and with all the reports that his inner circle gave him on the internal workings of Ukraine and his own troop strength it was going to be a 3 day operation at the longest so no full-scale war logistics were necessary. Even if it did come to that it was an easy fight, they had Ukraine surrounded. The Russians could not possibly lose.....right?
@@martinsvensson6884 Sure, of course, big win by Russians. And Russia doesn't do any propaganda and never never ever lie. All the West united, China must be very happy, looking long term to buy Russia for cheap because destroyed by sanctions and failed war. Russia fired of UN human right council. That's geopolitics. But this is war, and certainly both side must have rogue elements that do bad stuff, But I don't see any Russian city grounded, yet. Maybe later...
I do feel that the speaker is undervaluing the cultural impediments against Russian soldiers with regards to the Russo Ukrainian War. Almost every single soldier, be they conscript or regular army either had family in Ukraine or knew someone from Ukraine. When you're storming a village and you see your grandmother there you don't want to fight. If not your actual grandma then someone who's so reminds you of your grandma back in Russia that you can't attack.
@@jimbodimbo981 You mean dead russian civilians that were killed by ukranians and than placed three days after the russian left? There was a video made by ukranians entering the same street days before where there were not a single body in the streate. UK blocked discusion in UN that was requested by Russia, they know who killed them, simple ukranians.
Is that a portrait of Patrick Stewart off his right shoulder? Something from Star Trek perhaps? I'm being completely serious, I think that's who that is.
Didn’t the Russians have these same issues in the 90s during the first part of of the Chechen war in terms of the columns of military vehicles. Wasn’t Putin the person in charge during the Chenchen war.
All the war hardware in the world isn't going to mean victory when the grunts are freezing from lack of proper supplies. It also doesn't help to irradiate your troops and vehicles.
@@ВячеславСкопюк so he was correct on a 50/50 bet. Big deal. All his assessments regarding Z capabilities over the years have been shown to be staggeringly wrong. Now hes backpedaling ofc, which is just hilarious to watch. Arrogant narcissist.
@@joelhammer3538 >so he was correct on a 50/50 bet. it wasn't bet, it was prediction. Quite correct, unlike many of his colleagues. >All his assessments regarding Z capabilities over the years have been shown to be staggeringly wrong. how's that?
I would like to add, NATO is a paper tiger, the force to be reconned with is the United State Army, navy air force and marines, all NATO countries armies are poorly trained, not prepared their equipment had to be almost towed to the field, there a joke they have some good units on a small scale.
@@maniacmonsoon2831 with the exception of a few countries who do have good units on a small scale I trained with many nato armies first hand I know at least from my experiences and not just once Many times 6 years Army Europe where did you serve what was your experience ?
Dr. Kofman appears to be another genius who thinks that there is a real possibility that Russia might use nuclear weapons outside of Russia proper. I just don't believe that a rational actor would do that.
The West keeps portraying Putin as irrational. but the fact that he accepted that he can't take kiev and retreated to cut his losses is the most rational thing to do. nuclear weapons on Ukraine are out of the question
@@dwwolf4636 It was perfectly rational with the information Putin's cabinet was/is feeding him. Putin is living in his own mental bubble, in which all of this makes perfect sense.
@@robk8463 Are you terrified, Rob? Are you shaking in your boots? You know I have not yet seen a single retired general who believes that Putin is truly prepared to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, even if NATO should intervene there.
Great analysis but NCO's seem not to any decision making capabilities, it's the ncos that keep troops under control and to offer some kind of guidance when they can't get a hold of higher ups.
Good discussion, I'm looking fwd to more of these. Michaels remark that the Russians are indeed not 6 feet, nor 4 feet tall is spot on. Today (Apr 1st 2022) there is word that Russia is even moving (1-2K) troops from Georgia to reinforce what they have deployed in Ukraine, a signal that indeed not everything is going well. Even so, there is still significant capability left they can throw into the AO, additional air power and of course even more artillery. Thanks for sharing.
I think the Russian air power situation has gotten much worse since the first week of the invasion, and if they couldn’t operate then I don’t think they can operate well now. Ukraine has been given some S300’s and lots of manpads including starstreak, so they can’t even fly low and fast anymore and outrun stinger’s and S300’s are difficult to take out without layered SEAD coordination which Russia doesn’t have. I read something that said they would use LORAN instead of Glonass gps in event of war, so my theory is their planes can’t use LORAN in their ABRIS inertial navigation units/INS/INU’s. They basically have to fly spamming the fix INU button every five miles but it would still be miles off after a hundred miles.
@@alexburke1899 >the Russian air power situation has gotten much worse since the first week of the invasion as the matter of fact, it is the other way around >Ukraine has been given some S300’s are you sure about that?
@@ВячеславСкопюк pretty sure because they aren’t uncommon and US military even had lots for testing and exercises. We also just sent Poland patriot system so they can send s300 to Ukraine. Other countries don’t need them right now anyways really we have a bunch of f35 f15ex’s and awacs flying 24/7 so no Russian planes could get through. So might as well send most anti air to defeat the fascist Nazi Russians invading Ukraine. UK also sent starstreak so Russian pilots must be scared because they aren’t flying much and get shot down few times a day. I fly ka-50 in dcs flight sim sometimes and I don’t think Russia actually built anything like what is in the sim. I see the ka-52 pilots in video released by Russia flying like a ww2 plane, doing bombing style runs with cannon and lobbing dumb rockets from 2km away. In the simulator you can use Vikhrs missiles and tv pod with laser to shoot armor or other targets 8km away. Or use the cannon on softer targets with the eyepiece sight to lock onto targets by looking at them and pressing a button. It’s supposed to be a beast of a stealth helicopter but it’s obvious it doesn’t actually exist in Ukraine they built something cheaper. Pretty sure Russia never installed any of that targeting stuff if they fly like ww2 pilot with cannon locked straight ahead. They obviously don’t have the laser guided rockets either or the eyepiece targeting. They build nice prototypes for May Day parade or to put in video games and simulators then mass produce garbage. Most Russian planes don’t even have targeting pods even the ones built in 2015. SU57 probably has only targeting pod in country and there’s probably only 4 of those planes in existence they aren’t in Ukraine lol.
@@alexburke1899 >pretty sure because they aren’t uncommon "they aren't uncommon" is not an answer to the question 'are you sure that Ukraine got S-300's?' >We also just sent Poland patriot system so they can send s300 to Ukraine. Poland never had S-300's > UK also sent starstreak so Russian pilots must be scared because they aren’t flying much about 200 sorties a day
@@ВячеславСкопюк lol if they are losing 3-5 planes a day flying 200 sorties they aren’t very good. US didn’t lose any planes in Iraq wars that I can remember and they flew tens of thousands of sorties. Why do you support the Nazi Russians don’t you realize Putin is a fascist and destroying the country and killing innocent people in Ukrain. 40k Russians dead or injured. It’s like Vietnam or Afghanistan in just a few weeks. If you support fascist Putin that would make you a fascist too. Here you are trying to brag about their crap Air Force bombing kids and dropping phosphorus because they are terrorists and don’t know how to fight.
American and European war crimes in Vietnam. In 1995 Vietnam released its official estimate of the number of people killed during the Vietnam War: as many as 2,000,000 civilians on both sides and some 1,100,000 North Vietnamese and Viet Cong fighters. The U.S. military has estimated that between 200,000 and 250,000 South Vietnamese soldiers died. But offcourse no one complained about this, this is ok.
Are you kidding? The protests nearly tore America apart, and the War destroyed a number of our alliances including SEATO (so you aren't nearly as well informed about history as you think you are). Difference is that civilians were not deliberately targeted in VN, at least not as policy. Either way VN ended 50 years ago, so right on! with your *recent* history amigo. And how does VN excuse what is happening in Ukraine?! Get real.
Many, many, many people hit the streets of American cities to protest the terrible loss of life in the Vietnam War. Many American intellectuals and many American politicians complained bitterly about the war. Unfortunately, they were not in power at the time. But eventually, their complaints helped to end the war, even though the protests and arguments left deep divisions in American society. To say that no one complained about the horrible death counts during the Vietnam war is simply incorrect.
@@nm1978 I will agree that America lost the Vietnam War. But winning or losing the war had nothing to do with my point. You had written that no one complained about the war an no one complained about the loss of life caused by the Vietnam War. Millions of Americans complained. Because of those complaints, the US government knew that the US population would not tolerate more war. So rather than try to double down and put more troops into the fight, the US conceded that they lost and withdrew.
Michael said this: "We're all party's to this crisis and this conflict." Ahhh...wading deep in the philosophical waters. Does that mean, then, that we are all responsible for doing something about it? Of course...by implication...we are also all responsible for deciding what we are responsible for in the first place...so these are merely rhetorical questions. Pertinent...but still rhetorical. For example...I can decide that I have a responsibility to 'off' Putin. How...salutary of me.
If what you are saying is true then why did the Ukrainian fight ? That means someone in Ukraine wanted a war. And why didn't the Russian just not send a negotiating team and start serious negotiations putting the alternative on the table.🙏
It would also require NATO members to fire upon Russian's and in doing so initiates WW3, through NATO article 5, thus, Nuclear War and BILLIONS DIE!!!! Do you now comprehend the situation?!!
@@paulmacleod3559 Firing on Russians means firing on Russians? Wow! Who would have thought that? BTW Article 5 would be invoked if someone attacked NATO, not the other way around.
@@comentedonakeyboard WW3 is what will happen if a No Fly Zone is initiated over Ukraine. NATO members will fire upon Russians and that will be met with more deadly force thus escalation in violence will court Nuclear catastrophe. Any critical thinking persons can see this madness for what it is.
@@tedzehnder961 probably not particularly effective, question would be: do you have enough stealth fighters to enforce a no fly zone (and are some needed elswhere)?
Extreme brutality is self-defeating in most scenarios: 1) you demonstrate to your enemy that they might as well fight to the end, rather than negotiate a surrender 2) you harden the entire population against you, so any civilian you don't kill becomes someone who will fight against you. 3) you risk bringing other countries into the conflict against you as you've lost all claims for moral justification.
@@slikedragon Yes in the case of Ukraine maybe because Putin wanted to integrate them into Russia and not to alienate them. It was only useful in the case of WW2 Germany when you want to annihilate your enemy anyway.
Literally a month or so ago he was touting that russia was gonna stomp all over Ukraine. He seems to be a guy who uses his snarky attitude to seem like he knows what he's talking about, but his actual skill is talking out of his ass and pretending he's not contradicting himself.
I highly doubt that FSB and other intelligence force have feed wrong info or bad assumptions to Russian leadership but that instead have not expected that NATO will be providing intelligence and information's to Ukrainian forces, hence the Russians expected to have the element of surprise when attacking and instead have face well prepared and entrenched forces expecting them. Good example of this was Hostomel airport where Russians expected to face only local security and army garrison but instead encountered fully prepared units of Ukrainian special forces.
Which was dumb, because the Americans revealed many details about the planned war to the public… including the day of the attack. The US was clearly saying: we have infiltrated you, we know everything you are doing… so why don’t you stop doing it?
@@melindacadarette3447 No that was a known fact, what was a misgiving of FSB and military inteligencia was to not expect that NATO will effectively and immediately help Ukraine with SatNav data and intelligence of Russian army force movements and concentrations as well as micromanagement of Ukrainian micro counteroffensives.
Just how comfortable can Michael Kofman be in praising the Ukrainian war effort when he said himself he really has no clue about their losses in men or equipment.
@@CubaLibre69 Really? Would you feel comfortable predicting who would win a hockey game if you only knew what the goals so far in the game had been for one side and not for the other?
55:00 precision-guided weapons also only work as well as your ability to hit an actual target of strategic value. I do agree that they didn't conduct a proper SEAD operation opening hour, however, what they did target appears to have mixed results at best. I guess one example was some were guessing they were trying to hit the broad side of an airport, and the missile landed seventeen miles away in a cancer treatment center or something like that, along with seeing condemning photos of impact craters in farm fields all around a military installation without a scratch on the installation itself. Part of it may be bad or lacking intel, or it could be their electronic warfare GPS jamming was jamming their own munitions guidance systems, or maybe they were looking at ancient WW2 maps for targeting selection and a blindfold dart board selection method. either way, the results of what they hit were, not great for convincing civilians to like them.
@@LuxPerp I have this arguement a lot on RUclips if clown ass was a thing then they wouldn't be photographs of Sue 35 with tremble portable GPS literally staple to the instrument panel all forms of geolocation satellite systems are complex expensive infrastructure and Russia simply hasn't got the financial resources to maintain and continuously replace their glonas system You have heard of glonass I've heard of it and they've made lots of adverts about it but do you know anyone who uses it? because not even the Russian armed forces You would be forced to come up with some other explanations for so-called precision guided munitions missing by several thousand metres almost every time
"Yet if my line should die, It dies with its teeth in the enemy's throat, It dies with its name on the enemy's tongue. For just as mere life is not victory, Mere death is not defeat; And in the next world I shall kill the foe a thousand times, Laughing, Undefeated." - A Klingon ritualistic song
There is a big difference when you bomb a small arab third-world country like Iraq that can't manufacture its own heavy equipment and Fighting a cousin , the size of France and trying not to alienate the population. Obviously you don't know enough about the Russian Post USSR Way Of War. The Russians showed the same sensitivity to the Syrians who had to take their own cities. If you read the Red Army accounts they were very conscious that when they were driving out the Nazis they were bombing their own cities. Something the Military Industrial Complex and " Schock and Awe " (Propagands = arms sales ) driven US campaigns are absolutely insensitive about.. As usual the west mentions the Finnish war . That war was lead by Voroshilov . At the same time a Georgi Zhukov, destroyed a formidable Japanese Manchurian Army at Khalkin Gol in a combined arms operations that thoroughly demoralized the Japanese that they decided to attack the USA instead. Obviously there were conflicts of military doctrine at the STAVKA level that eventually were resolved in time for Barbarossa with Voroshilov being replaced by Timoshenko. The Khalkin Gol battle was also in 1939. I guess you western " experts " have selective ignorance . Military experts huh! I will pass on your " insights " .....Iam moving on.....
lol at "trying not to alienate the population." Rape, looting, and indiscriminate bombing sure are the way to do that. We get it - you abuse yourself to pictures of shirtless Putin riding a horse. Now that the illusion is shattered you're grasping at straws.
Plainly Kofman knows his field. Which does not mean that he is immune to omissions. Examples: 1. PARADE FORMATION describes the 60 km armored column headed to Kyiv. Similar to invading Hungary. Russia expected Spetsnaz to pull off an Entebbe operation, land 1,000 paratroopers, and sieze/execute the Zelenskyy government. Followed by a 60 km parade. 2. MAFIA STATE to address what Putin is after. After 2014 the RU mafia has been driven out of Ukraine steadily. Loss = 20 billion euro a year. They squeeze 60 billion out of Russia. Getting back Ukraine is a critical success factor to maintain current structure. **** In addition the phrase "incredibly deterministic" crashed its way into consciousness. Uuuugly. P.S. A-10 Warthogs ???
I can't believe you wrote that only 3 days ago. Kofman is plainly wrong, as time has revealed. And it was becoming plain he was wrong about 2 and a half weeks ago.
![Megan Thee Stallion - Mamushi (Remix) [feat. TWICE] [Official Audio]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/5c0_u9PsrsQ/mqdefault.jpg)
Love the portrait of Field Marshal Jean-Luc Picard in Kofman's office!
I'm so glad it's not just me seeing that.
just had that exact though!
LOL, nice to know I wasn't the only one to see/think that!
@@williamsmith9579 I kept cleaning my glasses and looking again.
Fitting due to the fact that Kofman seems to be “acting” as though he knew what he was talking about. Scott Ritter makes him look like a clown 😆
"Soldier's get disgruntled pretty fast." As a Veteran I can attest to this.
Yup... those intercepted phone calls we've seen across the internet and the incidents on the news seem to support this that the Russian soldiers are getting disgruntled
I think they forgot to gruntle us in the first place.
Sure, point taken, but you’ve never been part of a “Special Disgruntling Operation”, have you?
@@MarcosElMalo2 You mean like when the lieutenant has a good idea ?
A fragtastic idea...
This interview is weeks old but is still very interesting. I would love to hear this guy’s thoughts now. He was pretty spot on.
Trueee smhhhh when they made this video they said the war hasn’t even beeen going on for 10 days yet when as of today we are on day 43 with the war of Russia invasion of Ukraine
He said "we're 11 days into this war" but he meant "battle" the war's been going on for years already.
I just got to “11 days into this war”, making it March 5th. Since then, a lot of POWs have confirmed they were told they’d be greeted as liberators, others were told they’d get rich (suggesting that looting was encouraged from early on). The POWs were bitter that they were lied to, but we also have indicators that the planners and politicians were buying in to the lie. They were buying their own bullshit. I wonder also how much doubts were suppressed: loyalty is valued over competence at the highest levels-competence is actually punished when it conflicts with loyalty, and leadership is told what it wants to hear. Thus the echo chamber.
This was recorded a month ago for those who are wondering why they're talking about the battle of Kiev so much.
Michael has great taste in art. Best captain ever.
Picard as Napoleon amazing yeah.
Even though this analysis was only 11 days into the campaign, the analysis by Michael Kofman is very on point ( IMO )
Hasn't aged well though has it.
@@User0resU-1 He wasn’t wrong.
Love the picture of Captain Jean-Luc Picard on the wall!
It’s Guerney Hallek actually (DUNE)
It's not Picard
@@pensacola2015 Found same picture on line. A company called 'twistedsifter' changes the faces on old portraits of Russian generals. This one is Patrick Stewart. I can't download pictures on here but it is easy to find.
@@roverboat2503 Will check it out :)
As silly as it may be for some to assume that Russia "has no PGM's because we haven't seen them", it seems equally silly to assume they have them because they've used them in other conflicts. The assumption then being that the expended munitions were replaced by new production or an initial stockpile that has not been depleted.
Armoured vehicles without sufficient protection equals armoured vehicle suicide, especially in an urban environment. Even though it sounds ridiculous they need numerous other support units to protect them otherwise they're sitting ducks for UAV's, drones and well hidden infantry with ATGM's..... as we've seen many times.
True .
Case and point: Turkish leopards
We might have seen a lot of urban combat videos (coming out of Mariupol primarily), but a lot of “aftermath” videos seem to be isolated units ambushed on narrow fronts-basically fronts as wide as a roadway. And you have a good point (as was discussed in this video), that tanks and rifle units operating independently are a recipe of disaster.
But even when we see spearhead columns with tanks and accompanying APCs, we’re not seeing dismounted soldiers engaging in effective security for the tanks. Instead, we are seeing slow response, slow dismounting, and resulting carnage. We are seeing the tanks just sitting there and not orienting towards the threat. I just re-watched that one video of a column entering a town, being hit by pre-registered artillery and then ATGMs in the ensuing chaos. Most of the column does survive, didimau-ing back the way they came.
Interesting commentary but it is based on data at end of day 10!
It would be good to have a more current analysis
In the bigger picture, Putin did not want to get bogged down in this the way the Soviet Union got stuck in Afghanistan or the way the US did as well. He sent in a small force, not sufficient for enough for a brute force invasion but hoping that Ukraine would fold. Once they realized that the large cities would not fold easily, they stuck around long enough to pin down large numbers of Ukrainian troops while they did what they wanted to do in the south and south east. In a conventional war the ratio of attackers to defenders is 3 to 1. Russia had 1 attacker for every 3 Ukrainians defending or more. This proves my point.
Anyways now Ukraine is more or less cut off from the ocean and now if both sides don't agree to peace, Russia now has a solid foothold in the Russian majority areas and will likely conduct a pincer maneuver with heavy airpower, artillery, basically a real combined arms offensive in the southeast. Remember the length of the front that Russia was fighting on recently was greater than that of operation Barbarosa. Now however, they're scaling it down and concentrating on specific areas and sending in fresh reinforcements.
@@mistergeopolitics4456 By most reasonable estimations, the Russians have committed roughly 40% of their standing ground military to this effort in Ukraine. That is not a "small force". Moreover, it has been a disproportionately high amount of first tier or "elite" forces committed as well. The VDV, the 331st Guards Paras, the 3rd Guards Tank Division, the Naval Infantry.... these are not "scrub" forces they could afford to lose.
What does appear to be happening, however, is that Russia is losing the mobilization race. Putin appears keenly aware of the political impact a national mobilization would have and is trying hard to avoid one. He knows that calling up reservists would be deeply unpopular and stop lossing current conscripts would be even worse. Particularly considering he sold this as a "special military operation". The Ukrainians, in sharp contrast, are rapidly trying to mobilize the one MILLION reservists they have into maneuver units and the rest of the entire male population into Territorial Defense units. As those numbers swell, Russia will not have a good answer for the upcoming force imbalance.
One can speculate about the reasons Putin is not mobilizing, but the primary one appears to be his deep distrust of the military in general. Remember, he comes from an internal security background and is deeply suspicious of the military as a political rival. He might front as Stalin, but he is Beria and he is clever enough and educated enough to remember how Zhukov put an end to him before he got going.
That part also explains the complete lack of theater level command. The most charitable description of this effort in Ukraine would be that it is a Fury Road style mob effort with competing agendas. Fronts, service branches, or even units within fronts don't appear to be coordinating with one another. And Putin's desperate attempts at recruiting foreign fighters that don't even speak Russia seem to back this idea that he is less interested in military competence than he is concerned about a rising political rival.
Under those circumstances, there will be no mobilization. There will be no help coming. This force of 190k that he started with (and is likely down to about 150k at this writing) is all he's getting to complete his military and political objectives against a swelling wave of highly motivated and NATO equipped Ukrainians. The fabled Russian steamroller is not coming.
@@junahn1907 What are you talking about ? The Americans had said that Russia had deployed between 170-190,000 troops at the most. Russia has a standing army of over 1 million and 2 million reservists. It's not even a contest of mobilization between Ukraine and Russia. In the big picture could Russia take Ukraine if they really wanted to. Yes. But would it be worth the price paid in gold, blood and the cost of rebuilding all the destroyed and ruined cities ? No.Also Russia has been outnumbered in every single front in Ukraine. The Kiev front had 40,000 Russian troops deployed. This force was never meant to take Kiev. To take a city you need a ratio of 3 to 1 going on the offensive at the very least. Russia was outnumbered 3 to 1 if not by more so it wouldn't make sense. What they manage to do however was pin down hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops in the north while they took vital land in the south and south east. Ukraine has been cut off from the sea and Russia will now be focusing completely on the Russian majority areas. If peace talks don't work out, you will see the end result.
@@junahn1907 You realize that sheer numbers don't win wars. It's about the quality of troops. Forced conscription with hasty training will rarely produce anything close to a professional force. You also have to clothe, feed and arm all of those people so at some point it becomes more of a liability just having large masses of untrained, hungry men on the field without enough ammunition. That's what you call cannon fodder. Russia actually has a standing army of 1 million men well armed, Ukraine can field 1 million men but they won't be well armed or trained. In the big picture for Putin to commit to Ukraine unconditionally would be like how the US committed to Afghanistan for 20 years. What did the US and their NATO allies get in the end ? Nothing and they were utterly humiliated by a bunch of rag tag villagers infront of the entire world and had to flee in haste. NATO would have loved it if Putin had took the bait in Ukraine. However he did not.
At the same time Russia will not abandon the ethnic Russians in Ukraine. They've already managed to liberate most of the Russian majority land so why would they give it back to Ukraine now ? Crimea and Donbas are Russian, Ukraine just has to face the reality. Already a quarter of all Ukrainians are refugees and all their cities are ruined, their industrial capacity destroyed, military cohesion shattered and they have lost access to the sea. They can negotiate in good faith or they will face severe repercussions. Already Russia's currency has recovered 90% of its value back from before the sanctions. The sanctions won't work on Russia in the long run.
@@mistergeopolitics4456 "If peace talks don't work out, you will see the end result." What is the "end result?"
Nice analysis.
The difference is when we do it we HIRE the inhabitants to supply our bases and hand out goodies like it's holloween in the Hamptons.
Yes indeed. One of things left out in these putative type of analysis.
And it works . . . for a short time. Wrt to Iraq, we were greeted as liberators when we took Bagdad, but the honeymoon didn’t last. We might have done better in Afghanistan if those forces used in Iraq were used to secure the Afghanistan countryside.
Do you remember seeing videos of pallets of cash being sent to Iraq?
We smirk now about Russian corruption undermining the military, but we haven’t been immune.
One of the big differences between this current conflict and the U.S. experience in Iraq is while Putin’s advisors are telling him what he wants to hear, Bush’s problem was his senior advisors (VP Cheney and SecDef Rumsfeld) were telling Bush what THEY wanted him to hear. They steered Bush into the war. It’s still his responsibility for surrounding himself with these assholes, but (imho) I don’t think he would have attacked Sadam Hussein if he hadn’t been fed faulty intelligence by those with their own agenda. But maybe my attempt to soften Bush is for nothing, because in the end, it was his decision.
Another difference is that the U.S. led alliance won the war and lost the peace. As things stand, I don’t think Russia can even win its war against Ukraine.
These guys are very careful about predictions - especially about the future. Good job!
Well, when they don’t know, they say it. It’s quite interesting that some of the unknowns have developed in unexpected ways, others followed relatively predictable courses, and others are still unknown.
For example, it seems pretty clear now that an amphibious assault towards Odessa is off the table, with the Russian Black Sea fleet severely damaged with its flagship destroyed, among other vessels. Even Snake Island is being harassed and Russia can only support it at great risk-at least one and maybe two relief vessels were destroyed. Russia just doesn’t have the assets to make a viable amphibious thrust towards Odessa.
Mariupol has only just come under effective Russian control, but even now there are still hold outs. That’s been a surprise.
Putin’s meddling hand is still visible as the Russians have shifted their forces east after retreating from the battle of Kyiv. These shifted forces have been committed prematurely before they could be rebuilt to meet Putin’s May 9th timetable. Gains have been slow and costly. (I think this was somewhat predictable, although not on March 5th when this video was shot.)
More generals and upper echelon officers have been killed or injured. There have been successful cross border raids.
The biggest unknown is when Putin will decide he’s had enough. When will he realize that, even if the Russian military makes some gains, it’s not improving his negotiating position? As things stand, he will be lucky to get symbolic concessions if he ceases hostilities and withdraws Russian forces, but at least he would stop the bleeding.
Love Michael Kofman and thanks for sending this. But please be more timely in posting these on RUclips. Thanks regardless
I thought this too, but then I noticed that RUSI uploaded the same talk a month ago, but this one has 10x the views
Do you know of any more recent videos featuring Kofman? By random chance (and the blessings of the Almighty Algorithm) I’ve come across some good sources of long form high level overviews. Justin Bronk has been featured on Ward Carrol’s aviation channel. (I think Bronk works for or is associated with RUSI, in fact). Another is high level analysis by an Australian guy named Perun. His channel was originally game related, but it turns out his real job all along was military analysis. Since the start of hostilities, he’s re-oriented the channel towards the latter.
Suggest you talk to Scott Ritter for a more accurate / objective perspective.
Complains about US media and their propaganda, but has no problem with Russian and Chinese probaganda media, it is not a more accurate / objective perspective, it's just the other side's perspective.
If we talk about how the man was 20 years ago I would agree with you that it would be nice to hear from Scott Ritter. Unfortunately, not many people did that at the time, and I do not know if it is the disappointment of being right but almost no one listens to you, and
idiots even makes fun of your good analyzes that have made Scott Ritter fall as far into the depths as he is today. A true waste to the abilities of an intelligent man.
He is today as credible as CNN is today, they have also lost all credibility. There was a time when CNN was not a reality show.....
If Scott Ritter had not lost all credibility himself, he could today see one of the greatest idiots Joe Biden ruin his entire legacy, Biden risks being remembered as one of the worst politicians in U.S. history.
But okay Scott Ritter can at least say he was once a good man,
that's more than Putin and Biden can boast about.
I have now painted my my study in the same blue-grey colour, that Mr Koffman has on his walls. My books and paintings come across very nice with that shade as a background.
At the very least, you would think Russia would want to achieve air superiority, target air bases and air defense systems, their efforts just seem lackluster in that area.
Completed. Ukraine has no functioning air force.
@@litesp Took way too long. And resulted in no or minimal air cover for their forces. Weeks into the war and Ukraine is still flying drones? What a failure of the Russian Air Force.
@@Rokaize I think your too used to armies fighting countries with no infrastructure like Afghanistan and Yemen.
@@Rokaize educate yourself on Russian strategy. And don't be so credulous about msm narrative.
@@dracoboomin6511 That still doesn’t excuse the poor planning and use of the Russian Air Force.
Would be great to do this same analysis with Dr. Kofman again soon.
I've recently found your channel. Thank you for it. I'm not sure if it has been already covered but what are looking at in terms of foreign fighters, quantity and for broader world/Russian politics. I don't think it gets enough coverage.
I want a link to that one too thanks cheers
A month later, it’s not clear that Ukraine’s foreign volunteers have been militarily significant, although they seem to create a sense of international participation and solidarity-in another words, they are serving a propaganda purpose quite effectively. (And I’m not saying that volunteers aren’t seeing action.)
On the Russian side, their volunteers don’t seem to be contributing significantly either, unless you count war crimes and terrorizing the population. While Russia hasn’t organized an Einsatzgruppen formally, the Chechnyan volunteers seem to be playing that role on an ad hoc basis. Their propaganda value seems to be negative, although I don’t know how that plays domestically in Russia (and I suspect it doesn’t get played at all).
I love to see these sofa experts and their crystal ball
Good video. On a different note: You look like you're using a phone camera in a restroom stall. The light background and back-lighting make you appear very dark.
I must say as a cold war soldier, after seeing the performance of the russian army units, if the Russians attacked our soldiers in Germany, the United States would have kicked their ass, flat out, it would be so bad it would escalate to nuclear weapons very fast because of russian loses.
What's with the painting of Patrick Stewart on the wall beside Michael?
There is an artist who makes romantic era portraits of actors as Imperial Russian generals, they have proven somewhat popular.
Is it Von Clausewitz, the German strategist?
I feel regime change supposition makes little sense, any peace agreement necessary to accomplish the stated goals would need to be signed by the recognized leader of Ukraine for it to hold water. That is core so if our hypothesis includes it, our analysis will implicitly be off the mark.
>any peace agreement necessary to accomplish the stated goals would need to be signed by the legitimate leader of Ukraine for it to hold water
Poroshenko and Zelensky after him recognized as legitimate leaders, despite the events that lead them to power
@@ВячеславСкопюк Imprecise, I know. Perhaps I should have worded it differently and said "recognized leader" instead of legitimate, that's another complex discussion, I suppose. I will edit it.
Wouldn't regime change in itself be enough? The new leader signs all the paperwork and the Russians leave Ukraine (the carrot).
@@infostudy101 No, it would not make sense, because it would not be nationally and internationally recognised, thus peace would be unstable.
@@OctavChelaru Being completely honest I think it is highly unlikely that after invading the entire country of Ukraine with about 5-6 different army groups from multiple directions that Putin gives a damn about international recognition.
What do you think the Russians were going to do when they got into Kyiv? I doubt they would have left Zelensky in power when they seem so focused on uprooting neo-Nazis and any firm opposition to Russia.
Excellent information and video. Thanks so much for this.
Good examination
Astonishing. An Army without NCO’s. Therefore without discipline. Arming young single men far from home with deadly weapons, without bothering with strong discipline is insane. We see the results.
Its not an army, at least many of its constituent pieces don't really behave like an army.
At the core, many of their line units are outgrowths of the criminal syndicate that we mistake for a state, and they act exactly like you would expect armed gang members to behave.
They have spent more effort on how to send back, fence and courier loot than how to actually fight, because thats their priority.
As a retired US Army NCO you are correct. Without nukes it would take the USA ABOUT 2-3 months at the most to destroy the Russian capability to fight.
How do we know what to believe? Many people make statements but few give the sources of information for us to inspect. So we can't tell the veracity or the applicability of their statements.
This makes the whole business uncertain.
Stop complaining and do your own information gathering.
Nice wall art Mr. Kofman, where can I get one?
Is that a portrait of Patrick Stewart? Lol. Great commentary.
I knew i wasn't crazy, You saw it too! It looks like he pasted a picture of his head over the painting's head 🤣
Is the reason for Russia not attempting a general mobilisation because they do not have the equipment for a general mobilisation?
The tooth to tail is interesting. Was watching Ryan Macbeth talking about how Americans have a 10:1 tooth to tail ratio and in russia its like 4:1. Seems like a bad idea. The conscripts should be the ones in the rear running the supply lines not getting pushed towards entrenched ukrainian positions
is that a portrait of Picard in a field marshals uniform on the wall?
Is that a picture of Jean-Luc Picard on the wall in back of the guest?
Really enjoy listening to MK’s sober analysis of this conflict!
Really? I watch for the comedy value of watching him scramble to walk back years of russia-fluffing😂 also, saying the vdv did alright, gimme a break. Hes a narcissistic, condescending idiot.
The big outcome of the war is the effect of NLAW, Javelin drones and surface to air missiles such as the stinger missiles and what happens when there is no effective counter responses.
@@brianbozo2447 also, how to use infantry properly vs very poorly. But honestly, every single idiotic mistake one could possibly make has literally been made by the Z mob.
@@brianbozo2447 those aren't bug outcomes. Those are obvious outcomes of modern conventional weapons being used in a modern conventional war. Doing what they're designed to do, on both sides-all other things being equal.
Drones, people in the military and that float around that milieu, knew their effectiveness. Known vefore Nagorno-Karabakh, before fighting ISIS, etc.,
ATGMs, since 1973 and Israeli armor being dropped by Egyptian ATGM teams, it's known. Hell, the US had to prevent the import of the RPG-29 into Iraq (for the new Iraqi military) because it is so effective and the threat was so severe. And that long rid is unguided and might as well engage at a "danger close" range.
SAMs, since Gary powers was shot down by Soviet SA-2s, or North Vietnam, or Egypt in the Sinai in 1973. Highly lethal and birthed dedicated SEAD/DEAD tactics.
MANPADS. Again, there's a reason why there are such strict import/export restrictions on them. We don't even supply them to the "moderate rebels" when we wage regime change wars. They're *ALL* effective. Putragiously effective.
As usual and as is normal in warfare. They're are counters to all of these
But, so what. Airplanes, SAMS, MBTs, ATGMs, infantry and guns that kill them easily *all* are still used. Nothing needs under the sun in terms of this.
War is a system of systems. In one symbiotic relationship with one another-both friendly and hostile.
It seems people got used to the "terror war" wars, and rebel backed proxy regime change wars were what modern wars are. Far from.
Modern warfare and the modern weapons used therein are lethal and very effective when used by highly trained, proficiently lead, properly equipped, highly motivated.
And as a result. Casualties will be high, tempos and material losses will be high.
It's modern warfare. It's fast, it's lethal, and brutal.
That points made in this video are on point hitting the nail surely on its head, and many points in the commentary has done the same.
Hello. Why can't Russia b kicked out of the UN or HR councils or committees??? When was the last time their articles were updated????
Great analysis
love the Jean Luc Picard picture
How is it possible the Russian military could underperform so egregiously? I suspect they either failed to do their Intel work....or ignored it...which might be worse because it suggests an ideological or intellectual blind spot. Either way, they went in without a good plan...or a plan at all. If the Russians had planned they would not be caught on roads.
They would've maneuvered along but not on roads which would allow them to both avoid ambushes, maneuver in appropriate formations (not in column) and threaten to encircle ambushing forces which clears the road supply routes for the soft logistics targets. Then consolidate at critical road junctions or bridges...with bridging equipment. They seem to have been completely unaware that Ukraine would blow their own bridges and rail lines to interdict Russian incursions. They abandoned the vaunted Russian doctrines of mass, penetration, exploitation. I don't think they forgot. They just underestimated the enemy and failed to plan and execute accordingly. This all starts with Failed Military Intelligence.
Russia lost an awful lot of senior field leaders. When your plan fails this badly...that's Justice.
The ground along the roads is too soft to drive on, especially in this part of the year.
That explains why you see farmers pull abandoned tanks out of the mud of their own fields.
@@vsiegel Another Intel failure. Compounded by a Reconnaissance failure. Much of this terrain is oft tilled farmland. It's fairly obvious that will get real soft when it thaws. They need to fire their weatherman.
@@chrishooge3442 Much worse: It has happened before! It is not the first war with that problem, and the Russian army was choosing the date on its own.
putin told his generals what he wanted and told them to make it happen his generals were evidently a bunch of yes men and afraid to tell him its a bad time to attack weather wise so they went ahead and attacked while they crossed their fingers and hoped for the best.
You guys are so misinformed that it's embarrassing. You know nothing about what's going on except the fake information being fed by the MSM which fits your bias for Ukraine.
*Is it possible that Putin simply intends to take the southern region surrounding the sea of Azov, along with the Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea and the eastern "Donbas" region?*
We will see in the next week or two what happens. Some commentators say it is going to be tough for Russia to hold this area in the long term.
@@infostudy101 I hope the commentators are correct. It would be best to see Russia gain nothing.
He failed in Kyiv, and now is trying to save face. Ukraine will now redeploy to the East and `south
@@jimbodimbo981 why is he failed in kyiv ? Russia can destroy the whole city if it wants
@@evbuzzi6749 Russia could destroy the whole world if it wants as could America. He lost because he failed to take out the Government, that’s how war works…you take out the government and put your own puppet in charge. So he’s failed miserably and the world can now see the rust bucket Russian army, it’s incompetence. NATO could take out that army in an afternoon.
This is recorded a while ago right? I won’t to know Kidman’s opinion on this seeming counteroffensive in the south
Where did house find the 380p camera smeared with Vaseline?
April 7 this analysis stands up pretty well. Russia is indeed failing "slow and expensive." I'm curious about his conclusion that the military planners were left out of military planning. I'm hoping we'll learn the details of that eventually. It seems like a critical weakness in the Russian state.
I think what really happened was that Putin knew that his cabinet has more leaks than a North Korean fishing vessel, so he left just about everyone out of the planning phase. In his mind, the element of surprise was more valuable than good logistics, and with all the reports that his inner circle gave him on the internal workings of Ukraine and his own troop strength it was going to be a 3 day operation at the longest so no full-scale war logistics were necessary. Even if it did come to that it was an easy fight, they had Ukraine surrounded. The Russians could not possibly lose.....right?
Matt, If you are listening to MSM then this would be the conclusion, however the reality's may be quite different as Mariupol falls.
Corruption is one of their biggest weaknesses
@@zxb995511 Time has proven you were wrong.
Matt, what can I say... lmfao
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Or maybe a failure by too much corruption in the army?
not only but also.
But nothing points at any failures.. Except western propaganda or a complete failure by them to understand otherwise obvious strategies..
@@martinsvensson6884
Sure,
of course,
big win by Russians.
And Russia doesn't do any propaganda and never never ever lie.
All the West united,
China must be very happy, looking long term to buy Russia for cheap because destroyed by sanctions and failed war.
Russia fired of UN human right council.
That's geopolitics.
But this is war,
and certainly both side must have rogue elements that do bad stuff,
But I don't see any Russian city grounded, yet.
Maybe later...
Could you do a sound test before you go live please? It is very tinny and hard to make out on occasion.
Yeah, absolutely
Very good. Either the sound quality or the accents or both were a problem for me .
We need this updated to include the Russian retreat and force concentration in the East.
What's with the Picard portrait?
This guy doesn’t seem to know much about the conflict or the military strategies being deployed tbh.
Precision guided weapons on this many targets with a country with strategic depth? It's a different case use isn't it, it depends how it's used
They are both right.
I do feel that the speaker is undervaluing the cultural impediments against Russian soldiers with regards to the Russo Ukrainian War. Almost every single soldier, be they conscript or regular army either had family in Ukraine or knew someone from Ukraine. When you're storming a village and you see your grandmother there you don't want to fight. If not your actual grandma then someone who's so reminds you of your grandma back in Russia that you can't attack.
Sadly, not true. We are seeing the atrocities in Bucha, and other villages
@@jimbodimbo981 You mean dead russian civilians that were killed by ukranians and than placed three days after the russian left?
There was a video made by ukranians entering the same street days before where there were not a single body in the streate.
UK blocked discusion in UN that was requested by Russia, they know who killed them, simple ukranians.
2:43 Is that picture on the wall captain Jon-luc Picard of Star Trek fame!
interesting content, but the audio was very poor.
Is that captain Picard in the painting?
Excellent analysis! And I agree with the pointed comments. Especially the wall painting. I look forward to a more recent analysis.
You call this analysis? My baby would do better.
I will trust your judgment and stop watching :-)
Yeah its sounding like a waste of time
I would watch your baby doing an analysis. Pointing sticks, maps, counters......
Should do a follow up as this is from 3 weeks ago
Repost from weeks ago. Hoping to see how the analysis now over a month into the invasion.
Is that a portrait of Patrick Stewart off his right shoulder? Something from Star Trek perhaps? I'm being completely serious, I think that's who that is.
That's what I thought too.
Yup. Weird, huh?
Didn’t the Russians have these same issues in the 90s during the first part of of the Chechen war in terms of the columns of military vehicles. Wasn’t Putin the person in charge during the Chenchen war.
Putin came to power just before the second Chenchen war, Yeltson was still calling the shots during the first one.
Kofman makes some killer points as well though for sure
Kofman got it quite wrong at the start, reading his early tweets is a bit amusing. I think he's *still* over estimating the Russian army.
Over estimating? 😀
You should listen to Col McGregor or Scott Ritter...
All the war hardware in the world isn't going to mean victory when the grunts are freezing from lack of proper supplies. It also doesn't help to irradiate your troops and vehicles.
MK say's, "we are into this 11 days" I'd like to hear his take now, into 2nd month.
Ye wtf😂 hes vastly overrated. Done nothing but talk up russian military reform, BTGs, their supposed amazeballs kit, etc. Thoroughly discredited.
@@joelhammer3538 yeah. Man who had predicted invasion in Ukraine as early as September last year. Thoroughly discredited, sure
@@ВячеславСкопюк so he was correct on a 50/50 bet. Big deal. All his assessments regarding Z capabilities over the years have been shown to be staggeringly wrong. Now hes backpedaling ofc, which is just hilarious to watch. Arrogant narcissist.
@@joelhammer3538
>so he was correct on a 50/50 bet.
it wasn't bet, it was prediction. Quite correct, unlike many of his colleagues.
>All his assessments regarding Z capabilities over the years have been shown to be staggeringly wrong.
how's that?
@@ВячеславСкопюк look up how he described the Z military in the past.
I would like to add, NATO is a paper tiger, the force to be reconned with is the United State Army, navy air force and marines, all NATO countries armies are poorly trained, not prepared their equipment had to be almost towed to the field, there a joke they have some good units on a small scale.
"all NATO countries armies are poorly trained"
You can't be this stupid
Canada, US, Uk have been training Ukranians for the past 8 years.
@@maniacmonsoon2831 with the exception of a few countries who do have good units on a small scale I trained with many nato armies first hand I know at least from my experiences and not just once Many times 6 years Army Europe where did you serve what was your experience ?
Dr. Kofman appears to be another genius who thinks that there is a real possibility that Russia might use nuclear weapons outside of Russia proper. I just don't believe that a rational actor would do that.
The West keeps portraying Putin as irrational. but the fact that he accepted that he can't take kiev and retreated to cut his losses is the most rational thing to do. nuclear weapons on Ukraine are out of the question
@@nawnaw4709 Yet the timing of the attack and the manner in which it occurred were not rational.
@@dwwolf4636 It was perfectly rational with the information Putin's cabinet was/is feeding him. Putin is living in his own mental bubble, in which all of this makes perfect sense.
Yeah, I can't believe anyone would take Putin seriously. I mean he only threatened NATO with nuclear war.
@@robk8463 Are you terrified, Rob? Are you shaking in your boots? You know I have not yet seen a single retired general who believes that Putin is truly prepared to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, even if NATO should intervene there.
What kind of vocal accent is that I hear from Michael Kofman? He sounds like Andy Kaufman's Tony Clifton character.
Michael is from Ukraine.
thanks
Great analysis but NCO's seem not to any decision making capabilities, it's the ncos that keep troops under control and to offer some kind of guidance when they can't get a hold of higher ups.
They only have 4 ranks of NCO and only 6 total enlisted ranks the top rank is maybe theoretically equal to a first sergeant.
Nice picture of Captain Picard Russian regalia 😀
Is that a painting of Captain Jean Luc Picard? Can he and the Enterprise get in the fight?
That portrait on the wall looks exactly like Patrick Stewart! XD
This is from when everyone was still making excuses for Russian incompetence
Good discussion, I'm looking fwd to more of these. Michaels remark that the Russians are indeed not 6 feet, nor 4 feet tall is spot on. Today (Apr 1st 2022) there is word that Russia is even moving (1-2K) troops from Georgia to reinforce what they have deployed in Ukraine, a signal that indeed not everything is going well. Even so, there is still significant capability left they can throw into the AO, additional air power and of course even more artillery. Thanks for sharing.
I think the Russian air power situation has gotten much worse since the first week of the invasion, and if they couldn’t operate then I don’t think they can operate well now.
Ukraine has been given some S300’s and lots of manpads including starstreak, so they can’t even fly low and fast anymore and outrun stinger’s and S300’s are difficult to take out without layered SEAD coordination which Russia doesn’t have.
I read something that said they would use LORAN instead of Glonass gps in event of war, so my theory is their planes can’t use LORAN in their ABRIS inertial navigation units/INS/INU’s. They basically have to fly spamming the fix INU button every five miles but it would still be miles off after a hundred miles.
@@alexburke1899
>the Russian air power situation has gotten much worse since the first week of the invasion
as the matter of fact, it is the other way around
>Ukraine has been given some S300’s
are you sure about that?
@@ВячеславСкопюк pretty sure because they aren’t uncommon and US military even had lots for testing and exercises. We also just sent Poland patriot system so they can send s300 to Ukraine.
Other countries don’t need them right now anyways really we have a bunch of f35 f15ex’s and awacs flying 24/7 so no Russian planes could get through. So might as well send most anti air to defeat the fascist Nazi Russians invading Ukraine.
UK also sent starstreak so Russian pilots must be scared because they aren’t flying much and get shot down few times a day.
I fly ka-50 in dcs flight sim sometimes and I don’t think Russia actually built anything like what is in the sim. I see the ka-52 pilots in video released by Russia flying like a ww2 plane, doing bombing style runs with cannon and lobbing dumb rockets from 2km away. In the simulator you can use Vikhrs missiles and tv pod with laser to shoot armor or other targets 8km away. Or use the cannon on softer targets with the eyepiece sight to lock onto targets by looking at them and pressing a button.
It’s supposed to be a beast of a stealth helicopter but it’s obvious it doesn’t actually exist in Ukraine they built something cheaper.
Pretty sure Russia never installed any of that targeting stuff if they fly like ww2 pilot with cannon locked straight ahead. They obviously don’t have the laser guided rockets either or the eyepiece targeting. They build nice prototypes for May Day parade or to put in video games and simulators then mass produce garbage. Most Russian planes don’t even have targeting pods even the ones built in 2015. SU57 probably has only targeting pod in country and there’s probably only 4 of those planes in existence they aren’t in Ukraine lol.
@@alexburke1899
>pretty sure because they aren’t uncommon
"they aren't uncommon" is not an answer to the question 'are you sure that Ukraine got S-300's?'
>We also just sent Poland patriot system so they can send s300 to Ukraine.
Poland never had S-300's
> UK also sent starstreak so Russian pilots must be scared because they aren’t flying much
about 200 sorties a day
@@ВячеславСкопюк lol if they are losing 3-5 planes a day flying 200 sorties they aren’t very good. US didn’t lose any planes in Iraq wars that I can remember and they flew tens of thousands of sorties. Why do you support the Nazi Russians don’t you realize Putin is a fascist and destroying the country and killing innocent people in Ukrain. 40k Russians dead or injured. It’s like Vietnam or Afghanistan in just a few weeks. If you support fascist Putin that would make you a fascist too. Here you are trying to brag about their crap Air Force bombing kids and dropping phosphorus because they are terrorists and don’t know how to fight.
American and European war crimes in Vietnam.
In 1995 Vietnam released its official estimate of the number of people killed during the Vietnam War: as many as 2,000,000 civilians on both sides and some 1,100,000 North Vietnamese and Viet Cong fighters. The U.S. military has estimated that between 200,000 and 250,000 South Vietnamese soldiers died.
But offcourse no one complained about this, this is ok.
Are you kidding? The protests nearly tore America apart, and the War destroyed a number of our alliances including SEATO (so you aren't nearly as well informed about history as you think you are). Difference is that civilians were not deliberately targeted in VN, at least not as policy. Either way VN ended 50 years ago, so right on! with your *recent* history amigo. And how does VN excuse what is happening in Ukraine?! Get real.
Many, many, many people hit the streets of American cities to protest the terrible loss of life in the Vietnam War. Many American intellectuals and many American politicians complained bitterly about the war. Unfortunately, they were not in power at the time. But eventually, their complaints helped to end the war, even though the protests and arguments left deep divisions in American society. To say that no one complained about the horrible death counts during the Vietnam war is simply incorrect.
@@Bernharp1 there you go.
but it wasn't their protests that ended the war it was your loss.
you lost the war.
@@chrisstrawn4108 sure sure
millions died because of America.
you know nothing.
@@nm1978 I will agree that America lost the Vietnam War. But winning or losing the war had nothing to do with my point. You had written that no one complained about the war an no one complained about the loss of life caused by the Vietnam War. Millions of Americans complained. Because of those complaints, the US government knew that the US population would not tolerate more war. So rather than try to double down and put more troops into the fight, the US conceded that they lost and withdrew.
Michael said this: "We're all party's to this crisis and this conflict." Ahhh...wading deep in the philosophical waters. Does that mean, then, that we are all responsible for doing something about it? Of course...by implication...we are also all responsible for deciding what we are responsible for in the first place...so these are merely rhetorical questions. Pertinent...but still rhetorical. For example...I can decide that I have a responsibility to 'off' Putin. How...salutary of me.
If what you are saying is true then why did the Ukrainian fight ? That means someone in Ukraine wanted a war. And why didn't the Russian just not send a negotiating team and start serious negotiations putting the alternative on the table.🙏
Like football - war is a game of 2 halves.... It's not overly til one of the sides resigns
I zoomed in on it.. that's Patrick Stewart on the wall.. I'm sure of it
regarding a no fly zone it should be remembered that this would require the neutralisation of long range SAMs in Russia and Belarus
It would also require NATO members to fire upon Russian's and in doing so initiates WW3, through NATO article 5, thus, Nuclear War and BILLIONS DIE!!!! Do you now comprehend the situation?!!
@@paulmacleod3559 Firing on Russians means firing on Russians? Wow! Who would have thought that?
BTW Article 5 would be invoked if someone attacked NATO, not the other way around.
@@comentedonakeyboard WW3 is what will happen if a No Fly Zone is initiated over Ukraine. NATO members will fire upon Russians and that will be met with more deadly force thus escalation in violence will court Nuclear catastrophe. Any critical thinking persons can see this madness for what it is.
Try a little bit of "stealth" tech to see how effective electronic warfare responds?
@@tedzehnder961 probably not particularly effective, question would be: do you have enough stealth fighters to enforce a no fly zone (and are some needed elswhere)?
I see that Captain Picard has time traveled again.
Sir Patrick Stewart, I see you there
Criticism is a luxury for those on the sidelines.
What many seem to forget is that the is also a lesson for any future invader: attack with full force and extreme brutality from day 1.
Extreme brutality is self-defeating in most scenarios:
1) you demonstrate to your enemy that they might as well fight to the end, rather than negotiate a surrender
2) you harden the entire population against you, so any civilian you don't kill becomes someone who will fight against you.
3) you risk bringing other countries into the conflict against you as you've lost all claims for moral justification.
@@slikedragon Yes in the case of Ukraine maybe because Putin wanted to integrate them into Russia and not to alienate them. It was only useful in the case of WW2 Germany when you want to annihilate your enemy anyway.
Does this dude have a picture of Picard on his wall
The US too thought the Iraqis would welcome them as liberators!
Koffman is all contrarian since he has spent years talking up the russians capabilities😂
ikr, I've been WAITING for him to be on a panel since this clown show started lol
Literally a month or so ago he was touting that russia was gonna stomp all over Ukraine. He seems to be a guy who uses his snarky attitude to seem like he knows what he's talking about, but his actual skill is talking out of his ass and pretending he's not contradicting himself.
I highly doubt that FSB and other intelligence force have feed wrong info or bad assumptions to Russian leadership but that instead have not expected that NATO will be providing intelligence and information's to Ukrainian forces, hence the Russians expected to have the element of surprise when attacking and instead have face well prepared and entrenched forces expecting them. Good example of this was Hostomel airport where Russians expected to face only local security and army garrison but instead encountered fully prepared units of Ukrainian special forces.
So they didn't know that Western forces have been training the Ukrainian army for years now? That's bad intel.
Which was dumb, because the Americans revealed many details about the planned war to the public… including the day of the attack. The US was clearly saying: we have infiltrated you, we know everything you are doing… so why don’t you stop doing it?
@@melindacadarette3447 No that was a known fact, what was a misgiving of FSB and military inteligencia was to not expect that NATO will effectively and immediately help Ukraine with SatNav data and intelligence of Russian army force movements and concentrations as well as micromanagement of Ukrainian micro counteroffensives.
Talks like this don’t age well. This is only four days old and predictions are beyond events.
The first guy could move a few inches back from the camera. He makes me feel crowded.
Just how comfortable can Michael Kofman be in praising the Ukrainian war effort when he said himself he really has no clue about their losses in men or equipment.
They haven't lost yet ...thar's a plus.
Because we know in general terms what Russia’s losses are?
@@CubaLibre69 Really? Would you feel comfortable predicting who would win a hockey game if you only knew what the goals so far in the game had been for one side and not for the other?
55:00 precision-guided weapons also only work as well as your ability to hit an actual target of strategic value. I do agree that they didn't conduct a proper SEAD operation opening hour, however, what they did target appears to have mixed results at best. I guess one example was some were guessing they were trying to hit the broad side of an airport, and the missile landed seventeen miles away in a cancer treatment center or something like that, along with seeing condemning photos of impact craters in farm fields all around a military installation without a scratch on the installation itself. Part of it may be bad or lacking intel, or it could be their electronic warfare GPS jamming was jamming their own munitions guidance systems, or maybe they were looking at ancient WW2 maps for targeting selection and a blindfold dart board selection method. either way, the results of what they hit were, not great for convincing civilians to like them.
GPS is an American system and they have now turned it off the Russian air force now has to use inertial guidance
@@billturner6564 Russians don't use GPS they have their own satnav network called GLONASS.
@@LuxPerp I have this arguement a lot on RUclips if clown ass was a thing then they wouldn't be photographs of Sue 35 with tremble portable GPS literally staple to the instrument panel
all forms of geolocation satellite systems are complex expensive infrastructure and Russia simply hasn't got the financial resources to maintain and continuously replace their glonas system You have heard of glonass I've heard of it and they've made lots of adverts about it but do you know anyone who uses it? because not even the Russian armed forces You would be forced to come up with some other explanations for so-called precision guided munitions missing by several thousand metres almost every time
"Yet if my line should die,
It dies with its teeth in the enemy's throat,
It dies with its name on the enemy's tongue.
For just as mere life is not victory,
Mere death is not defeat;
And in the next world I shall kill the foe a thousand times,
Laughing,
Undefeated."
- A Klingon ritualistic song
There is a big difference when you bomb a small arab third-world country like Iraq that can't manufacture its own heavy equipment and
Fighting a cousin , the size of France and trying not to alienate the population.
Obviously you don't know enough about the Russian Post USSR Way Of War.
The Russians showed the same sensitivity to the Syrians who had to take their own cities.
If you read the Red Army accounts they were very conscious that when they were driving out the Nazis they were bombing their own cities.
Something the Military Industrial Complex and " Schock and Awe " (Propagands = arms sales ) driven US campaigns are absolutely insensitive about..
As usual the west mentions the Finnish war . That war was lead by Voroshilov . At the same time a Georgi Zhukov, destroyed a formidable Japanese Manchurian Army at Khalkin Gol in a combined arms operations that thoroughly demoralized the Japanese that they decided to attack the USA instead.
Obviously there were conflicts of military doctrine at the STAVKA level that eventually were resolved in time for Barbarossa with Voroshilov being replaced by Timoshenko.
The Khalkin Gol battle was also in 1939.
I guess you western " experts " have selective ignorance .
Military experts huh! I will pass on your " insights " .....Iam moving on.....
lol at "trying not to alienate the population." Rape, looting, and indiscriminate bombing sure are the way to do that.
We get it - you abuse yourself to pictures of shirtless Putin riding a horse. Now that the illusion is shattered you're grasping at straws.
Cool 😎 stuff
Usted señor sería un excelente Clown tiene condiciones para eso lo felicito cuánto a que se lleva muy bien con volodymyr🤡
31:00 Now he is a psicology expert and provides us with intel straight from the kremlin.
Plainly Kofman knows his field. Which does not mean that he is immune to omissions. Examples: 1. PARADE FORMATION describes the 60 km armored column headed to Kyiv. Similar to invading Hungary. Russia expected Spetsnaz to pull off an Entebbe operation, land 1,000 paratroopers, and sieze/execute the Zelenskyy government. Followed by a 60 km parade. 2. MAFIA STATE to address what Putin is after. After 2014 the RU mafia has been driven out of Ukraine steadily. Loss = 20 billion euro a year. They squeeze 60 billion out of Russia. Getting back Ukraine is a critical success factor to maintain current structure. **** In addition the phrase "incredibly deterministic" crashed its way into consciousness. Uuuugly. P.S. A-10 Warthogs ???
A10s would be absolutely useless against any conventional army. A10s are good against 3rd world nations with no AA defences.
I can't believe you wrote that only 3 days ago. Kofman is plainly wrong, as time has revealed. And it was becoming plain he was wrong about 2 and a half weeks ago.