ATTN: slight error in the CAHSR Palmdale-Burbank cost discussion at 2:43 I misread the new EIS slightly. The video covers alterative SR14 Refined, which used to be the preferred alternative. They changed that to SR14A, which is very similar to SR14 Refined, except at it has more tunnelling in the Acton area. Cost on that is a mystery because I have different amounts from two different charts released by the CAHSRA in April 2024, but it should be somewhere between equal ($22.4B in 2018$) to $3 billion more ($25.3B in 2018$). BTW, that's roughly $30-35 billion with inflation in any sort of year they could dream to actually build it.
The speed at which a lot of these amtrak projects on the NEC are happening is pretty encouraging. Now that amtrak has seemingly taken over the texas central high speed rail project I hope that they're able to start building out infrastructure at a faster-than-expected rate over there as well.
The time ranges are pretty big on most of those, but it does seem so far that they're motoring along. It's not as glamorous as CAHSR and BLW, but Acela mid 2030s is going to be significantly more competent than present if most things go to plan.
Are you fukkn high? HSR progress is "encouraging"?? It the wildly increasing cost estimates also "encouraging"?? And the estimated completion century? Ouch!
I don't think anyone disputes that construction on CaHSR is going to have to pick up, even to meet the 2030-33 goal for operation of Merced to Bakersfield. But a lot of the problems go back to the three gigantic design-build contracts that were signed a decade ago, in order be able to take advantage of a previous federal grant. The Authority seems to be dead-set against doing it that way again, so hopefully we'll see construction go at faster pace when they break ground on the extensions.
That 2030-33 timeline depends on receiving the additional federal IIJA funding they anticipate needing, totaling up to $4.7 billion, with the remaining funding gap to come from state cap & trade funds that last through 2030 unless extended beyond that. The sooner they get that funding, the more likely 2030-31 happens for the start of revenue service, and the longer it takes the more likely the start date gets pushed back to 2033, and possibly beyond. You’re also right about CHSRA avoiding what it did for those first contracts going forward. The $2.5 billion in ARRA grants they got in 2009 came with a statutory deadline to be fully expended by October 2017, forcing CHSRA to start awarding those construction contracts before having all the land to build on, and were also design-build meaning the contractor got to design what it wanted to build then charge CHSRA for the price of that, including change orders to that design. Going forward, CHSRA is going to design the guideway and structures first and then award contracts to build those, which should make things go faster as well as be less expensive. CHSRA admits that’s how it should have been from the start, and how it will be going forward, starting with the Merced and Bakersfield extensions.
@@onetwothreeabc well no, cause they needed those funds to help move things along. What would have been better is if those funds didn’t come with that strict deadline.
For the Arlington connection to DFW airport it seems like it went something like this: - Fort Worth wanted in on the Dallas to Houston action - Since an HSR line between Dallas and Fort Worth would go through Arlington, they wanted a stop too - Everyone else said Arlington doesn’t deserve a stop because they don’t participate in any public transportation - A recent compromise is Arlington gets a stop, but only if they participate in public transportation, starting with a people mover (or something similar) between Arlington and DFW airport
I feel that as high speed rail, true 200 mph high speed rail, becomes more and more tangible here, there’ll be greater motivation to fund it more. It’ll start with the first trains that people can ride, likely Brightline West but don’t count out CAHSR’s initial Central Valley service, which’ll have higher average speeds. That motivation will help push CAHSR over the mountains to at least San Jose and Palmdale, as well as begin funding other US high speed rail corridors. Just as other technologies here started out slow before taking off, so too will HSR, with every new line open pushing that momentum further and faster.
If Marxist party currently in charge gets voted out, don't count on ANY of the 400B-700B you're gonna need from the rest of America. You're fukkn on your own.
@@wno1043 nah, it’s the right, namely the far right, who seems to feel and not think. They’re emotionally driven while those on the left are more logical. That’s why they get so riled up by things like their ‘culture wars’ promoted on places like Fox News.
@@wno1043 Please don't insult people or personally attack them in my comments. You should be able to have a civil conversation when you disagree with someone. If you persist, I'll block you.
Especially for Chargers-Raiders games. My understanding is the party car will be a private rentable space, and it’s one that Siemens is promoting for their train, not something BLW is adding. I’m guessing onboard service will be very similar to their current Florida service.
Thanks for giving a glimpse into the future with the last clip! Coming from Germany with all of our current high speed rail routes I know it took us a long time to get there. I see the dual use of the highways as a good first step to establish more rail routes as alternatives for traffic jams and lost times while driving yourself.
10:44 traffic was so bad in the town I-95 traffic had to divert into, that they had to cancel school. But the big difference from this and Philly was this didn't damage the highway itself, just the overpass.
Stewgebra is scary for Spaniards, I know I always say this but those costs are prohibitive here! $120 Billion is twice the cost of our entire High Speed network (4000 Km or 2486 miles)😅 Love your videos👌😅
re: California spending rate; could spending being behind even the rate of inflation be attributed to early phase infrastructure being the most cost inefficient part of the process? High cost for the longest, slowest elements of infrastructure development?
Yes, you can look at it that way. They delayed the project and essentially tripled the cost of Central Valley with bad decisions, which will cause everything else to inflate far beyond planned funding. They already had an issue before they messed things up, though. The projected cost went pretty quickly from $33 billion to $67 billion when it was looked at with less granularity. Most cost past $67 billion is inflation, but they never provisioned for $67 billion in funding anyway.(as evidenced by total identified funding being at $29B)
@@LucidStew There is a lot at the link to read. There were lawsuits and an injunction on selling the HSR bonds. Only in 2013 did the Chsra award contracts. On December 2, 2010, the Authority Board of Directors voted to begin construction on the first section of the system from Madera to Fresno, known as the Initial Construction Segment (ICS) CP1. On August 20, 2013, the joint venture of Tutor Perini/Zachry/Parsons executed a design-build contract for the initial Madera to Fresno segment, about 29 miles (47 km) long. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Construction_of_California_High-Speed_Rail#Initial_construction_approvals
Double tracking everything on Brightline West makes it cost more and increases time it would take to complete it. I think if they're shooting for 2028, they should go with current plan and double track more later when funding would be easy to support.
Brightline normally installs the right of way so it can be upgraded to double track without significant change, such as wide bridge piers to accommodate new parallel structures.
7:00 though not having much new completed mileage over several months is not necessarily a problem. When HSL's are built over here, you can have 6 months or a year with barely any kilometers of newly completed guideway, then a bunch of kilometers are completed quasi simultaneously. If they're building several sections in parallel, that's normal. If they're building sequentially, that's worrying. Often, the berm is erected or trench excavated, sublayers are done, and then only the last layer remains to be laid, which can be done pretty quickly in rapid succession. As for the rolling stock : I still think CAHSR will go with Alstom, as I thought Brightline West would go with Siemens, even though for such frequent acceleration and deceleration purposes and reduced energy consumption, a Jacobs bogies solution would have been a bit better. Anyway, both manufacturers produce trains that run on the same infrastructure specs. Given the speed goal of CAHSR, a Jacobs bogies train would also cause less wear and tear on the rails. Each train has half the number of bogies plus one, which means a lot less friction per train passage than with a conventional bogies one, especially at max speed and passing over track switches. The "stiffness" of an articulated train is also a strong asset in a seismic area. Shinkansen trains aren't articulated per se, but they are substantially stiffened to avoid or at least reduce jack-knifing in case of derailment during a quake (plus there are kinds of additional railguards to maintain the train on the track in certain locations). Plus, Jacobs bogies lower the train's center of gravity compared to a conventional one. A lower center of gravity combined with increased stiffness substantially decrease the chances of a train derailing during an earthquake. Cool video, Stew !
@onetwothreeabc The latest ones don't have bogies at all under the passenger cars, they have single wheels, not even an axle, and they can't be EMU's, they only work with power cars. Plus, frankly, the ride quality is pretty bad, it is very shaky. Some reviews of the Talgo AVRIL have popped up on here, and you can clearly see how much it vibrates. Beverages in cups reminded me of the famous scene in Jurassic Park... The main selling point of the AVRIL is that it has shorter cars, allowing the loading gauge of the train to be larger (3 2m or 10ft wide), and thus have 5 seats across in coach in a 3 + 2 seating arrangement. Maybe they'll find a way to reduce vibrations later, but right now, that's pretty bad. I'm not sure about the stiffness of the consist, but a 200-meter AVRIL will have 2 motor cars and 12 or 13 passenger cars if I recall correctly. So, 13 or 14 wheels per side between the 4 bogies of the power cars (2 each), which gives 21 or 22 wheels per side for the entire train. A 200m 10-car AGV, for example, will have 11 bogies or 22 wheels per side, a substantial number of them, or all, being powered. The "free wheels" of the AVRIL may be the source of the vibrations, and if it's the case, this would not be good for wear and tear o the rails at higher speeds. The "ring" in a Jacobs bogies train that is located between the cars stabilizes the train, I don't know the details yet about the AVRIL, but it seems a bit too light in comparison.
The thing though is that they've been working at this slow pace for nearly a decade now. From a pure throughput standpoint they're simply not doing enough to get anything accomplished in a reasonable time frame. I didn't vote for this thinking it would be done in 2080. The thing was supposed to be done in 2029. Clearly that's not happen now, but I'd rather it were done sooner than later.
Brightline West is a great project but I really hope that entire route will be double tracked one day. There will likely be demand that is unmet due to not being able to run many trains on the corridor
Great to hear another update! As per usual, Brightline West is doing amazing while CAHSR is getting more depressing by the day. I honestly feel the best way to complete CAHSR at this point is to give it to either Amtrak (like Texas Central) or to Brightline (the latter of which will have private capital to help with several costs)
A federal takeover ala Texas Central does seem like an option, but the amounts here are getting hefty even for the federal government. It would help if it could go anywhere other than California. At least then you'd have the excuse of interstate commerce. Maybe after BLW is complete.
CAHSR doesn't just have a funding deficit (construction costs are uncontrolled). It also has a fare deficit. Even if near-infinite amounts of money are given to CAHSR to complete SF to LA, there is no commitment (or demonstrated ability) to operate/maintain the system at competitive fares.
Underpopulated Salesforce TC ... you might want to ask why Amtrak no longer goes into the terminal with its buses. Instead, they trudge through traffic to a random bus stop on Mission St. near the west end of Salesforce. Convenient to the (one-way, to the top-of-terminal park; find some escalators to get back down) cable car, but not much else. Though, arguably, a block closer to the Muni/BART Embarcadero station in Market St.
JFC that CSR economic breakdown is depressing... Time for P3's or contracting out sections or maybe even deal-making with the railways for free ROW in exchange for cargo rights along the route... Anything to salvage this dumpsterfire of a project would be great... Maybe a future Lucid Stew video? "How to save the California HSR"...I wonder if any sections could also be put down interstate ROW's or is it too locked in now? Another great video nonetheless!
Maybe. I'll think I'll need to take suggestions from people who know trains a little better than I do. Real estate, too. The gist so far is that they're going to finance what they can when they can, but that's essentially off the table until they connect S.F. As far as interstate row goes, the route is almost locked in. The places that aren't, freeway alignments were already rejected. Any other project could adjust, but the Prop 1A requirements loom. It MUST be designed to certain standards, S.F.-L.A. in 2h40m and Sacramento-L.A. in 2h20m in particular being lethal to further compromise.
@@onetwothreeabc the initial HSR service, to be operated by SJJPA, will effectively be an extension of the San Joaquins, one twice as fast with up to thrice the frequency. The current Amtrak service along with ACE Rail will terminate at a new Merced intermodal station, with a cross platform connection between northbound HSR and Amtrak trains. I do recall something about early on when building the HSR alignment, it had to be built so in case the project closed down the guideway and structures built could be used by Amtrak, though with more funding since then that idea was scrapped and the focus is on making HSR happen, and it’s very tangibly close to happening for Merced-Bakersfield service, and increasingly to SF and LA as those segments become construction ready and awaiting funding.
@@ChrisJones-gx7fc Yeah, I heard about that plan for cross platform connection. Though I still think it could be better if they can find some way to allow direct train service with SJ or ACE extended to Bakersfield, either by electrify Emeryville/Sacramento to Merced section or use some sort of dual mode train set.
@@onetwothreeabc anything other than true high speed rail would go against the will of the voters, and to buy dual mode trains as a temporary solution would be spending more money for a project that‘s never had enough to begin with. They’re already well underway on the procurement effort for high speed trains, narrowing it down to two manufacturers, one of whom was recently awarded manufacturing the trains for Brightline West. Merced-Bakersfield is just the initial segment of the much larger system, the one where construction was required to start, that they have enough funding for, and be the best place to run the trains at their true top speeds of 220 mph and over. Extending HSR to San Jose and SF is an absolute must, as is Palmdale and LA/Anaheim, and getting across Pacheco Pass is the next priority for CHSRA once the Central Valley segment is operational. Things are moving forward preparing that segment for construction so it can start once funding is secured. As CAHSR becomes more tangible with tracks and trains, that support for funding the next segment will likely get stronger, as will getting HSR to SoCal.
I was 12 when they initially launched this initiative and they projected it to be finished by 2020 but surpassed the budget by approximately 95-100 Billion. now I’m 24 and still in it’s initial phase:(
To be fair, they believed they'd be able to build it extremely quickly, so a lot of that delay is due to required organizational and environmental work. However, only 9 years into construction they are about 5 years behind schedule. The original planned 'initial operating segment' was supposed to open this year.
Absolutely right, there are also accounts that they allocated the majority of the funds to compensate homeowners for constructing on or above their property as the project would have traversed agricultural areas.
@@gregory596 Possibly. I was assuming inflation would continue quieting down a little. Although yesterday I caught the financial news for a few minutes and it looks like treasury bond yields are inching up again...
Local union better negitionate for 75.00 hourly and 2000.00 weekly for operators to travel to work this construction grade for brightline , driving ,, daily , food , gas and places to stay while this is in faze one and going forward . Being in vegas , people will gouge construction people . 8.00 gallon gas
The chapters only JUST showed up for me 8 minutes into it and 9 hours after you posted. Ha! For some reason that's funny to me. ANYWAY good thing CHSR will never actually happen, I mean, clearly none of us would want to ride on trains, that's so "unamerican"! 😂
Hi Lucid, Finance, Real Estate and Law was my academic field, eventual degree, and the first 3-4 years of my career before I moved into data science. Doing complex financial/project cost estimates was my bread and butter, although I’m a bit out of practice. I do not think your conclusions especially w/regard to the effect of inflation on CAHSR are correct. I could sit down and do the analysis myself after work. I think there’s an algebraic/series computation error, or an incorrect assumption about future cash flows that’s causing you to find an infinity where there shouldn’t be. I’m sorry I don’t have a specific thing in mind as I’m rusty, but I would be happy to respond in more detail if you would like someone to double check your numbers.
Keep in mind, the absolute amount of spending is NOT growing. Like, not even keeping up with inflation. They have spent $13B so far. They estimate Merced-Bakersfield @ $30-33B. It should be done in 8-10 years. That's a range between $1.7B and 2.5B/year PLANNED for the next 8-10 years. Granted, I simplified things a lot, but another thing to keep in mind is that its fairly probable they also will not make a significant dent in the funding deficit between now and 2030 because they almost surely will not be doing construction anywhere but between Merced and Bakersfield until it is completed. State revenues through 2030, unless policy changes, are already all accounted for. Some of the things like deficit*X years inflation/X years of course is greatly simplified for purposes of illustration. And of course, dividing the deficit by current spending without accounting for inflation is nearly nonsensical, but again, its mainly to illustrate a point rather than to be mathematically accurate.
I'm usually assuming that top operational speed will be 320km/h, since that's a pretty typical in-service ceiling in Europe. BLW themselves hasn't ever indicated anything more than 200mph.
Just to clarify, is $120 billion the estimated cost for the whole HSR line from San Francisco to San Diego? And do I understand correctly that they have enough money for the initial section from Bakersfield to Merced? I have to admit that your videos have been a reality check for me. I had wanted to assume that the situation wasn't quite as bad as the negative media coverage has portrayed, but the project does seem to be in pretty rough shape, even with the recent grants from the federal government. One of the things that's really frustrating that you allude to is the massive construction costs in the US, which are far higher than other countries. Tunneling, for example, is about 3x more expensive here than in France, where the environmental laws are just as stringent, and where the workforce is more highly unionized. Researchers at NYU did a study on why infrastructure costs so much more here, and they found many factors, but one of them is the tendency to reinvent the wheel, and a refusal to learn from other countries. Costs end up ballooning, and it plays right into the hands of Republican naysayers who portray projects like HSR as wasteful, pie-in-the-sky porkbarrel projects. (Even though the costs of new freeway projects also tend to spiral out of control in the US. See the big dig in Boston, for example, which cost over $14 billion.) It's all very frustrating. I really pray that the federal government is able to pass the HSRA, but that is likely a heavy lift, and projects like this are likely to remain very precarious. And if California can't even pull off HSR, it doesn't give much hope for the rest of the country.
$120B would be for Phase 1 San Francisco to Anaheim, but as I said, that's not accounting for inflation beyond 2034, and Phase 1 will not be done even remotely close to 2034. They do NOT have the full funding for Merced-Bakersfield. They are currently about $5 billion short.
So the Feds giving CHSR $3.6B will cover the interest. What will CHSR do when they get to the Tehachapi mountains ? Even California doesn’t have that kind of money. I knew California govt couldn’t be trusted with this big of a project in 2008 ! It will never be finished
Yeah, roughly 15 months of inflation at the current rate. Tehachapi is pretty far off. By current means its unlikely they would connect San Francisco too much earlier than 2050. It would probably be Anaheim-Burbank after that, then tackle Bakersfield-Burbank.
I've gotta ask, why finish with that big beautiful freeway? I can't tell if it's sarcasm, or trying to point out how large freeways are. Regardless, it doesn't seem on brand. Why not have something pro your channel?
And now I sound like I'm nitpicking, but have you given any thought on a channel rebrand? Lucid Stew might have been a fun name, but it gives no indication or implication that this channel is about trains.
@@MichaelClausing That outro tagline, or a variation of it, is in every high speed rail video I've done. That and "Hey, it's your old pal Lucid Stew, again!" are an indelible part of my brand. Your question amounts to "have you considered completely undoing all of your branding efforts to date and abandoning all the people that have supported you thus far?" The answer to that is: no, I have not considered that.
You should do a comparison of history of HSR in US and history of HSR in China,because China also have a very short history of HSR which only started from 2008
China don't have massive land acquisition issues like Cal has. Also, China often build HSR stations out of the town centers to reduce cost. Not even mentioning the labor cost difference...
@@onetwothreeabc The biggest difference is not land acquisition issues or labor cost,it is the government,it looks that US government really dont care much about people stuck in traffic congestion and people die in traffic accidents
@@chinaiscoming1017 You said as if people in China don't die from traffic accidents... China built HSR partly because the passenger train capacity does not meet the demand. Japan developed the Tokaido Shinkansen for the same reason. This is not true in the US in most of the routes. SF-LA does have direct rail service, and it's not over capacity at all.
@@davidjackson7281 If the inflation is 3% and your spending is also increasing 3% every year, you will not lose the race. It's like you are always spending the same amount in 2024 dollar, and the project cost is also in 2024 dollar.
@@Nderak Lucid Stew seems to imply that the spending has to be more than the inflation x the total cost. The cost is about $9 bn, and assuming a 3% inflation, it's $2.7 bn. Current spending is $1.8 bn per year. He thinks this is bad.
The cost for a one way ticket from Rancho Cucamonga to Las Vegas is estimated to be $200 and that is insane. Brightline does not like to talk about that, I have seen numerous videos with brightline execs and whenever someone asks about ticket price the execs side step the question. I would never spend $400 for a round trip by rail. I can go to ontario and catch a flight for less money. A b737 probably uses less energy per person compared to the brightline rail.
What was wrong with the New York Post's reporting in this regard and it what way do you think my interpretation of the article was unduly influenced by the source?
Honestly Stew, but I honestly hate all the negativity lauded onto CA HSR. I realize that you're just pointing out that CA HSR isn't building as fast as say the NEC, but then the NEC Has three times the workforce. Hey President Biden maybe get off your ass and send some crews to California? Also, you seem to be another of the many who claim that CA HSR has nothing to show for all the work expended? Maybe if you'd leave Los Angeles and actually viewed the entire construction work in the three construction zones, maybe then you'd be able to post a more accurate look at the projects currently underway in the Central Valley? My major complaint to the Biden Administration, where's all this Build Back Better funding; seems to me that most of the money's being taken up with Brightline West? Would that seem a fair assessment? CA HSR only received one granting of 3.4 Billion; not the 5 Billion necessary to help pay for construction of the tunneling required to tie the Central Valley to the CalTrain corridor.
Brightline West has the advantage of benefitting two states rather than one, and it's an easier project to do. CAHSR could also stop giving us 2018 numbers for costs and ridership estimates, and show transparency by giving those numbers in more current form. Hopefully they pick up the pace of construction soon.
"Also, you seem to be another of the many who claim that CA HSR has nothing to show for all the work expended?" I spent significant time in the video showing EXACTLY what they have to show for the expense. I've been to the Central Valley and seen the project. The footage of the Fresno River Viaduct in Madera is by me. What is inaccurate? Be specific. I'd love to hear it since my source is the CAHSR Authority. What's yours? It would not be a fair assessment to say that most of the IIJA money has gone to BLW. The total pot for intercity passenger rail is $36 billion. $24 billion goes to NEC, $12 billion to the rest of the country. BLW has gotten 1/4 of the FSP-National money because they are one of only 2 true high speed rail projects in the country outside of the NEC, CAHSR being the other(which has gotten $7 billion from the federal government now).
A lot of the money to the NEC has been for a tunnel they only need because they forgot to close the water tight doors when the hurricane arrived. Imagine if they could have spent the tunnel fund on important things like, well, track?
You thought all that money was actually going to be used for infrastructure? From an administration that funded 7 billion for a million charging stations for EVs and built, like, seven of them? Sorry, better luck next election.
CAHSR is a joke! for comparison. the Tren Maya began construction. in 2018 and is now in operation as of Dec 2023. We cannot even build trains in America anymore.
As a German, I'm curious how long it will take you Americans to realize that your whole concept of infrastructure financing (public-private partnership) doesn't work. Hint: Infrastructure is a national necessity and therefore _must_ be nationalized. To be clear, by infrastructure I mean the rails, the power grid, the highways. Let private companies (dissolve Amtrak!!!) run their own rolling stock and compete for attractive prices and services - just as any company can run its trucks on the highways as it sees fit. But for heaven's sake, nationalize the rails! That's how we do it in Europe, although we come from the other side, from fully nationalized and monopolized railroads. The middle way (nationalized tracks with privately owned and operated trains) is the only sensible way to deal with it.
That's a lot easier said than done. The freight companies have a lot of money, they're very well connected, and they own nearly all of the rail right of way. Also, the country would be obligated to redress them if the assets were seized and that could be intensely expensive.
@@LucidStew Think like a railroad tycoon! Is a rail network really an asset? Or is it more of a liability? It's only an asset if it's used as a monopoly, right? No other company is allowed to transport goods on that network. And that in 'Murica, the land of capitalism, the free market and competition! Tststs. But even then, I'm not sure the monopoly advantage outweighs the maintenance costs of a huge network ... I'd give away a track network like that for free if the state took the maintenance costs off my hands and I could invest my money in rolling stock - or pay my shareholders even more dividends (which is more likely). And as far as the right of way is concerned, it's actually worthless if the line can't be shut down and the land can't be sold. So I'd just make a law (or better: a constitutional amendment!) that rail lines cannot be closed anymore. Which is a reasonable thing to do anyways. The right of way becomes worthless and the railroad companies will hand over the infrastructure happily, especially when they are threatened that safety measures against derailments might be tightened … (think of Palestine, Ohio!)
@@hape3862 You can be completely assured that freight rail companies are not going to give away any right of way that they consider valuable. Also, if seizure is attempted, you can be guaranteed of a lengthy legal battle, and the U.S. federal government having to pay top dollar for it as a result. You're not going to have a constitutional amendment as you propose. It's very difficult to amend the Constitution, requires a lot of political momentum, and that's not coming from an issue very few people care about like not being able to close rail lines.
@@hape3862 The people have access to the system, but that generally happens though Congress as a regular course of business rather than changing the foundational law of the land. However, even then, because people here have rights and corporations are considered people, you can't just seize property, and rightfully so. I don't want a corporation's assets seized without redress anymore than I want the same to happen to me.
Bro, CHSR could use taxpayers to fund the, I mean why can’t the government just give them the money if they are giving around 80% of the 120 billion budget to Israel? if that makes sense, like come on
More wealthy, powerful people are worrying about Israel than HSR. California can do this by itself. I don't see why we need to wait for the federal government to come around.
@@LucidStew Good Point, but I’m just saying think of how fast this would go if the government stepped in and had taxpayers money go to this project, I think a lot more people would be Feeling positive that their money was going to this
@@RailMan102_Productions Yes, it's nice to dream, but I really don't see the political winds shifting that strongly nationally, at least not in the next 15-20 years.
Look at how cheaply China does high speed rail. Money is being wasted and funneled away. Have China come in and do the us high speed rail for a fraction of the cost
The very expensive part, being land acquisition for the ROW, would still be the same. But perhaps having the Chinese dig the 55 miles of tunnels could make sense.
@@kim.jong.skillz I saw the video and he explained the cost keeps ballooning upwards of $100 billion with no secured funding for the whole project in sight. I am all for high speed rail in the United States but this is ridiculously poorly planned and I’m losing hope that it will ever be completed given what was shared in this video.
In short, it is proven, effective, and cheaper. Even so, California is struggling to pay for it in Texas is struggling to get any support. Any attempt at maglev trains will have virtually no chance of success in the United States at this time.
If California wants to find the 2.73 billion dollars it needs to have a modern railway system maybe it ought to think about taking it out of the 378 billion dollars it pays in taxes to the Federal budget every year.... tax dollars largely used to prop up money eating welfare dumps like Alabama or South Carolina. Currently California contributes one in every eight dollars of the Federal budget. It might think about asking for a tax rebate!
I think we need solutions that can actually happen. Although, California, as one of most left-leaning states in the union, complaining about redistributionist policies is a bit rich.
@@LucidStew Funny how these "left leaning" states always seem to earn more than the right wing ones. The USA ought to think about redistributing some of its inflated military budget. A single B2 bomber costs around 2 billion today plus an eye watering 135,000 dollars an hour to fly the damn things. Explain to me how a country doesn't blink at paying 916 billion dollars a year on its armed forces but can't find the wherewithal to build a couple of hundred miles of railway track.
@@michaelafrancis1361 Because the phrase "provide for the common defence" is in the Constitution and "build a high speed rail line for California" isn't. I would submit to you, however, that if some of the defense budget were peeled off, the other 49 states would probably prefer it go to them for whatever intrastate project they've cooked up.
This issue of states paying more to Washington than the federal government will spend in and on them has been an issue ever since we became a country; and definitely since we established an income tax!
@@LucidStew The speeds are terrible and who wants to spend that much time with public scum. The bathrooms on those trains will have trash cans full of poop covered toilet paper because the dumb portion of the population sems to think you can't flush toilet paper and the bathrooms will be full of graffiti scribed into every surface. I go to Vegas twice a month on average and I drive the cajon pass probably 4 days a week. I live off grid on 400 acres in the Mojave Desert area. I drive because I like to be in control of when I come and go and I like to be able to move around any time I want. I usually fly to vegas but sometimes I drive and from my property I reach Henderson Executive airport in 45 minutes. Not one person I know has said thet will ride the train, they all said they have no desire to ever take a train to a destination that is only 300 miles away. I guarantee I can make it to vegas faster by car than that train.
@@LucidStew The average speed will be much lower especially with all the stops. I bet the train will run at around 50mph on the grades of the cajon pass. The government and companies always over prime and under deliver. All of the slow sections of track will bring the average speed down quite a bit. If they actually manage to build the train I will post a video beating the train. What concerns me is that the rail construction will create massive traffic to Vegas for the next decade. I am sure I will be taking my Merlin to Vegas most of the time. I can also smoke in my plane and my cars the entire trip.
@@LucidStewmaybe no one in his little corner of the world will use this train, but a growing majority of Americans, namely younger generations who want alternatives to driving for intercity travel that aren’t flying, want to see HSR happen here. He also appears to fail to understand the difference between local transit (i.e. news stories about LA Metro and BART) and intercity transit like Amtrak or Brightline. If he’s out in the desert already well on the way to Vegas, then it probably is faster to drive by the time you backtrack to the Victor Valley station, wait to get on a train then find a means to reach whatever your destination is in or around Las Vegas. It’d be a bit like outracing CAHSR to SF or LA if the start line were some remote spot along 99 or I-5. There are certain scenarios where driving beats HSR, but that’s due to local and regional transit that connects to HSR, not HSR itself. Driving RC to LV and vice versa will be slower than BLW, even on days with no traffic, and every person on the train means less traffic for those who’ll keep driving, which should be a win for everyone. Same will be the case for every US HSR system that opens, especially with improved regional and local transit that connects with it.
ATTN: slight error in the CAHSR Palmdale-Burbank cost discussion at 2:43 I misread the new EIS slightly. The video covers alterative SR14 Refined, which used to be the preferred alternative. They changed that to SR14A, which is very similar to SR14 Refined, except at it has more tunnelling in the Acton area. Cost on that is a mystery because I have different amounts from two different charts released by the CAHSRA in April 2024, but it should be somewhere between equal ($22.4B in 2018$) to $3 billion more ($25.3B in 2018$). BTW, that's roughly $30-35 billion with inflation in any sort of year they could dream to actually build it.
The speed at which a lot of these amtrak projects on the NEC are happening is pretty encouraging. Now that amtrak has seemingly taken over the texas central high speed rail project I hope that they're able to start building out infrastructure at a faster-than-expected rate over there as well.
The time ranges are pretty big on most of those, but it does seem so far that they're motoring along. It's not as glamorous as CAHSR and BLW, but Acela mid 2030s is going to be significantly more competent than present if most things go to plan.
Are you fukkn high? HSR progress is "encouraging"?? It the wildly increasing cost estimates also "encouraging"?? And the estimated completion century? Ouch!
Rare that I think "hmm what has my fave american train youtuber been up to", click the channel, and find a video uploaded just 15 seconds ago
me 2
I think they call that serenitydipity.
Thank all 3 of you for making this happen!
@@LucidStew Serendipity?
@@marcelmoulin3335 That's just when two things fortuitously coincidence. We're talking about serenitydipity here.
I don't think anyone disputes that construction on CaHSR is going to have to pick up, even to meet the 2030-33 goal for operation of Merced to Bakersfield. But a lot of the problems go back to the three gigantic design-build contracts that were signed a decade ago, in order be able to take advantage of a previous federal grant. The Authority seems to be dead-set against doing it that way again, so hopefully we'll see construction go at faster pace when they break ground on the extensions.
That 2030-33 timeline depends on receiving the additional federal IIJA funding they anticipate needing, totaling up to $4.7 billion, with the remaining funding gap to come from state cap & trade funds that last through 2030 unless extended beyond that. The sooner they get that funding, the more likely 2030-31 happens for the start of revenue service, and the longer it takes the more likely the start date gets pushed back to 2033, and possibly beyond.
You’re also right about CHSRA avoiding what it did for those first contracts going forward. The $2.5 billion in ARRA grants they got in 2009 came with a statutory deadline to be fully expended by October 2017, forcing CHSRA to start awarding those construction contracts before having all the land to build on, and were also design-build meaning the contractor got to design what it wanted to build then charge CHSRA for the price of that, including change orders to that design. Going forward, CHSRA is going to design the guideway and structures first and then award contracts to build those, which should make things go faster as well as be less expensive. CHSRA admits that’s how it should have been from the start, and how it will be going forward, starting with the Merced and Bakersfield extensions.
@@ChrisJones-gx7fc So, in other words, if Cal HSR didn't use Fed funds from the beginning, they'd be in a much better position now.
@@onetwothreeabc well no, cause they needed those funds to help move things along. What would have been better is if those funds didn’t come with that strict deadline.
@@onetwothreeabc The CA HSR Bonds needed the Federal money or the Bonds could not be used.
@@ChrisJones-gx7fc So today's situation is just inevitable. There is no plan B at all.
For the Arlington connection to DFW airport it seems like it went something like this:
- Fort Worth wanted in on the Dallas to Houston action
- Since an HSR line between Dallas and Fort Worth would go through Arlington, they wanted a stop too
- Everyone else said Arlington doesn’t deserve a stop because they don’t participate in any public transportation
- A recent compromise is Arlington gets a stop, but only if they participate in public transportation, starting with a people mover (or something similar) between Arlington and DFW airport
Great work! I hope the High Speed Rail act gets passed in the USA. It will give us in the USA about $200 billion for HSR.
So far still in committee after nearly 3 months.
$200 billion is far from enough.
The country needs to secure the borders before wasting money on useless rail projects.
@@ChrisHarding-lk3jjSettle down nazi
@onetwothreeabc it really is, but it's a step in the right direction
Excellent analysis on the CAHSR "perpetual funding gap." You da man! Big congratulations on 10,000+ subscribers! Well deserved.
I feel that as high speed rail, true 200 mph high speed rail, becomes more and more tangible here, there’ll be greater motivation to fund it more. It’ll start with the first trains that people can ride, likely Brightline West but don’t count out CAHSR’s initial Central Valley service, which’ll have higher average speeds. That motivation will help push CAHSR over the mountains to at least San Jose and Palmdale, as well as begin funding other US high speed rail corridors. Just as other technologies here started out slow before taking off, so too will HSR, with every new line open pushing that momentum further and faster.
Perhaps. Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.
If Marxist party currently in charge gets voted out, don't count on ANY of the 400B-700B you're gonna need from the rest of America. You're fukkn on your own.
@@wno1043 nah, it’s the right, namely the far right, who seems to feel and not think. They’re emotionally driven while those on the left are more logical. That’s why they get so riled up by things like their ‘culture wars’ promoted on places like Fox News.
@@wno1043 Please don't insult people or personally attack them in my comments. You should be able to have a civil conversation when you disagree with someone. If you persist, I'll block you.
@@wno1043 "you don't think" is an insult whether you think its the "truth" or not. You're welcome to continue to comment otherwise.
Dear Lord, that party car will be nuts with Raider "fans" from L.A.
Especially for Chargers-Raiders games. My understanding is the party car will be a private rentable space, and it’s one that Siemens is promoting for their train, not something BLW is adding. I’m guessing onboard service will be very similar to their current Florida service.
☠
been pushing a lot of people to your channel with that awesome Brightline West render, keep at it Stew.
Thank you! I appreciate that.
Jacobs and Herzog seem really well poised to get involved in a lot of this centuries HSR construction
Thanks for giving a glimpse into the future with the last clip! Coming from Germany with all of our current high speed rail routes I know it took us a long time to get there. I see the dual use of the highways as a good first step to establish more rail routes as alternatives for traffic jams and lost times while driving yourself.
Glad the FRA wasn't swayed by Alstom, Wabtec, and NY politicians trying to block the waiver. Let the best product be put forth.
Seems like the dissenters had an argument at a coarse level that fell apart with a finer view.
@@LucidStewnow here’s wondering if/when CAHSR will be granted that same waiver, if they haven’t already.
some unenlightened driving from the charger in final clip
edit: nvm
The Charger was awesome. The person on my right passed me illegally in a lane that didn't exist.
@@LucidStew oooh
Thanks for the news, Stew!
You bet. Thanks for watching!
10:44 traffic was so bad in the town I-95 traffic had to divert into, that they had to cancel school. But the big difference from this and Philly was this didn't damage the highway itself, just the overpass.
Stewgebra is scary for Spaniards, I know I always say this but those costs are prohibitive here!
$120 Billion is twice the cost of our entire High Speed network (4000 Km or 2486 miles)😅
Love your videos👌😅
The U.S. sincerely needs to collaborate with Spain to figure out how to bring costs down.
re: California spending rate; could spending being behind even the rate of inflation be attributed to early phase infrastructure being the most cost inefficient part of the process? High cost for the longest, slowest elements of infrastructure development?
Yes, you can look at it that way. They delayed the project and essentially tripled the cost of Central Valley with bad decisions, which will cause everything else to inflate far beyond planned funding. They already had an issue before they messed things up, though. The projected cost went pretty quickly from $33 billion to $67 billion when it was looked at with less granularity. Most cost past $67 billion is inflation, but they never provisioned for $67 billion in funding anyway.(as evidenced by total identified funding being at $29B)
@@LucidStew There is a lot at the link to read.
There were lawsuits and an injunction on selling the HSR bonds. Only in 2013 did the Chsra award contracts.
On December 2, 2010, the Authority Board of Directors voted to begin construction on the first section of the system from Madera to Fresno, known as the Initial Construction Segment (ICS)
CP1. On August 20, 2013, the joint venture of Tutor Perini/Zachry/Parsons executed a design-build contract for the initial Madera to Fresno segment, about 29 miles (47 km) long.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Construction_of_California_High-Speed_Rail#Initial_construction_approvals
@@LucidStew I'd hope they put that rail yard north of the Tulare lake basin, like in Fresno.
Good info. Brightline West should give the inside scoops!
I might be able to get more info from them in the future. Just depends if I think to ask and they're willing to make it public.
Need to be double track all the way.
Double tracking everything on Brightline West makes it cost more and increases time it would take to complete it. I think if they're shooting for 2028, they should go with current plan and double track more later when funding would be easy to support.
There's no money to do that
Single track like BLW, or nothing running for years like Cal HSR.
Brightline normally installs the right of way so it can be upgraded to double track without significant change, such as wide bridge piers to accommodate new parallel structures.
I would feel very nervous riding 200 MPH on a single track.
7:00 though not having much new completed mileage over several months is not necessarily a problem.
When HSL's are built over here, you can have 6 months or a year with barely any kilometers of newly completed guideway, then a bunch of kilometers are completed quasi simultaneously.
If they're building several sections in parallel, that's normal.
If they're building sequentially, that's worrying.
Often, the berm is erected or trench excavated, sublayers are done, and then only the last layer remains to be laid, which can be done pretty quickly in rapid succession.
As for the rolling stock : I still think CAHSR will go with Alstom, as I thought Brightline West would go with Siemens, even though for such frequent acceleration and deceleration purposes and reduced energy consumption, a Jacobs bogies solution would have been a bit better.
Anyway, both manufacturers produce trains that run on the same infrastructure specs.
Given the speed goal of CAHSR, a Jacobs bogies train would also cause less wear and tear on the rails. Each train has half the number of bogies plus one, which means a lot less friction per train passage than with a conventional bogies one, especially at max speed and passing over track switches.
The "stiffness" of an articulated train is also a strong asset in a seismic area. Shinkansen trains aren't articulated per se, but they are substantially stiffened to avoid or at least reduce jack-knifing in case of derailment during a quake (plus there are kinds of additional railguards to maintain the train on the track in certain locations).
Plus, Jacobs bogies lower the train's center of gravity compared to a conventional one.
A lower center of gravity combined with increased stiffness substantially decrease the chances of a train derailing during an earthquake.
Cool video, Stew !
How about Talgo? They have even less bogies...
@onetwothreeabc The latest ones don't have bogies at all under the passenger cars, they have single wheels, not even an axle, and they can't be EMU's, they only work with power cars.
Plus, frankly, the ride quality is pretty bad, it is very shaky.
Some reviews of the Talgo AVRIL have popped up on here, and you can clearly see how much it vibrates. Beverages in cups reminded me of the famous scene in Jurassic Park...
The main selling point of the AVRIL is that it has shorter cars, allowing the loading gauge of the train to be larger (3 2m or 10ft wide), and thus have 5 seats across in coach in a 3 + 2 seating arrangement.
Maybe they'll find a way to reduce vibrations later, but right now, that's pretty bad.
I'm not sure about the stiffness of the consist, but a 200-meter AVRIL will have 2 motor cars and 12 or 13 passenger cars if I recall correctly.
So, 13 or 14 wheels per side between the 4 bogies of the power cars (2 each), which gives 21 or 22 wheels per side for the entire train.
A 200m 10-car AGV, for example, will have 11 bogies or 22 wheels per side, a substantial number of them, or all, being powered.
The "free wheels" of the AVRIL may be the source of the vibrations, and if it's the case, this would not be good for wear and tear o the rails at higher speeds.
The "ring" in a Jacobs bogies train that is located between the cars stabilizes the train, I don't know the details yet about the AVRIL, but it seems a bit too light in comparison.
The thing though is that they've been working at this slow pace for nearly a decade now. From a pure throughput standpoint they're simply not doing enough to get anything accomplished in a reasonable time frame. I didn't vote for this thinking it would be done in 2080. The thing was supposed to be done in 2029. Clearly that's not happen now, but I'd rather it were done sooner than later.
Brightline West is a great project but I really hope that entire route will be double tracked one day. There will likely be demand that is unmet due to not being able to run many trains on the corridor
"one day" is a very long time, but even in BLW's longer-term plans, double-tracking only reaches about 80%
Do the Brightline West double track sections seem 30 minutes apart as would be expected for 60 minute headways?
We worked it out roughly to 25 minutes, so yes, with a bit of elbow room.
Great to hear another update! As per usual, Brightline West is doing amazing while CAHSR is getting more depressing by the day. I honestly feel the best way to complete CAHSR at this point is to give it to either Amtrak (like Texas Central) or to Brightline (the latter of which will have private capital to help with several costs)
A federal takeover ala Texas Central does seem like an option, but the amounts here are getting hefty even for the federal government. It would help if it could go anywhere other than California. At least then you'd have the excuse of interstate commerce. Maybe after BLW is complete.
Brightline: Never offer to help an enemy making a mistake.
CAHSR doesn't just have a funding deficit (construction costs are uncontrolled). It also has a fare deficit. Even if near-infinite amounts of money are given to CAHSR to complete SF to LA, there is no commitment (or demonstrated ability) to operate/maintain the system at competitive fares.
Arlington wants transit?? I thought this was illegal!
I look forward to Lucid Stew's videos, thanks!
I look forward to you watching. You're welcome!
Underpopulated Salesforce TC ... you might want to ask why Amtrak no longer goes into the terminal with its buses. Instead, they trudge through traffic to a random bus stop on Mission St. near the west end of Salesforce. Convenient to the (one-way, to the top-of-terminal park; find some escalators to get back down) cable car, but not much else. Though, arguably, a block closer to the Muni/BART Embarcadero station in Market St.
Arlington, Dallas and Fort Worth need a LOT more than just HSR 😂
JFC that CSR economic breakdown is depressing... Time for P3's or contracting out sections or maybe even deal-making with the railways for free ROW in exchange for cargo rights along the route... Anything to salvage this dumpsterfire of a project would be great... Maybe a future Lucid Stew video? "How to save the California HSR"...I wonder if any sections could also be put down interstate ROW's or is it too locked in now? Another great video nonetheless!
Maybe. I'll think I'll need to take suggestions from people who know trains a little better than I do. Real estate, too. The gist so far is that they're going to finance what they can when they can, but that's essentially off the table until they connect S.F. As far as interstate row goes, the route is almost locked in. The places that aren't, freeway alignments were already rejected. Any other project could adjust, but the Prop 1A requirements loom. It MUST be designed to certain standards, S.F.-L.A. in 2h40m and Sacramento-L.A. in 2h20m in particular being lethal to further compromise.
Well, if the Merced-Bakersfield section is finished, it can serve as an express service for San Joaquin...
@@onetwothreeabc the initial HSR service, to be operated by SJJPA, will effectively be an extension of the San Joaquins, one twice as fast with up to thrice the frequency. The current Amtrak service along with ACE Rail will terminate at a new Merced intermodal station, with a cross platform connection between northbound HSR and Amtrak trains.
I do recall something about early on when building the HSR alignment, it had to be built so in case the project closed down the guideway and structures built could be used by Amtrak, though with more funding since then that idea was scrapped and the focus is on making HSR happen, and it’s very tangibly close to happening for Merced-Bakersfield service, and increasingly to SF and LA as those segments become construction ready and awaiting funding.
@@ChrisJones-gx7fc Yeah, I heard about that plan for cross platform connection. Though I still think it could be better if they can find some way to allow direct train service with SJ or ACE extended to Bakersfield, either by electrify Emeryville/Sacramento to Merced section or use some sort of dual mode train set.
@@onetwothreeabc anything other than true high speed rail would go against the will of the voters, and to buy dual mode trains as a temporary solution would be spending more money for a project that‘s never had enough to begin with. They’re already well underway on the procurement effort for high speed trains, narrowing it down to two manufacturers, one of whom was recently awarded manufacturing the trains for Brightline West.
Merced-Bakersfield is just the initial segment of the much larger system, the one where construction was required to start, that they have enough funding for, and be the best place to run the trains at their true top speeds of 220 mph and over. Extending HSR to San Jose and SF is an absolute must, as is Palmdale and LA/Anaheim, and getting across Pacheco Pass is the next priority for CHSRA once the Central Valley segment is operational. Things are moving forward preparing that segment for construction so it can start once funding is secured. As CAHSR becomes more tangible with tracks and trains, that support for funding the next segment will likely get stronger, as will getting HSR to SoCal.
I was 12 when they initially launched this initiative and they projected it to be finished by 2020 but surpassed the budget by approximately 95-100 Billion.
now I’m 24 and still in it’s initial phase:(
To be fair, they believed they'd be able to build it extremely quickly, so a lot of that delay is due to required organizational and environmental work. However, only 9 years into construction they are about 5 years behind schedule. The original planned 'initial operating segment' was supposed to open this year.
Absolutely right, there are also accounts that they allocated the majority of the funds to compensate homeowners for constructing on or above their property as the project would have traversed agricultural areas.
Isnt arlington the place with a law against public transit?
Busy month in news!
How fast are trains able to go once the phase 2 of the keystone corridor is complete?
3:27
Three percent inflation???
Did I miss a news cycle?
too little?
@@LucidStew yeah, 3.5% or more ... maybe much more.
@@gregory596 Possibly. I was assuming inflation would continue quieting down a little. Although yesterday I caught the financial news for a few minutes and it looks like treasury bond yields are inching up again...
Local union better negitionate for 75.00 hourly and 2000.00 weekly for operators to travel to work this construction grade for brightline , driving ,, daily , food , gas and places to stay while this is in faze one and going forward . Being in vegas , people will gouge construction people . 8.00 gallon gas
Thought about dropping background music?
nope
It's ducked plenty, it's fine
The chapters only JUST showed up for me 8 minutes into it and 9 hours after you posted. Ha! For some reason that's funny to me. ANYWAY good thing CHSR will never actually happen, I mean, clearly none of us would want to ride on trains, that's so "unamerican"! 😂
Hi Lucid, Finance, Real Estate and Law was my academic field, eventual degree, and the first 3-4 years of my career before I moved into data science. Doing complex financial/project cost estimates was my bread and butter, although I’m a bit out of practice.
I do not think your conclusions especially w/regard to the effect of inflation on CAHSR are correct. I could sit down and do the analysis myself after work. I think there’s an algebraic/series computation error, or an incorrect assumption about future cash flows that’s causing you to find an infinity where there shouldn’t be. I’m sorry I don’t have a specific thing in mind as I’m rusty, but I would be happy to respond in more detail if you would like someone to double check your numbers.
Go ahead smarty pants genius.
Keep in mind, the absolute amount of spending is NOT growing. Like, not even keeping up with inflation. They have spent $13B so far. They estimate Merced-Bakersfield @ $30-33B. It should be done in 8-10 years. That's a range between $1.7B and 2.5B/year PLANNED for the next 8-10 years. Granted, I simplified things a lot, but another thing to keep in mind is that its fairly probable they also will not make a significant dent in the funding deficit between now and 2030 because they almost surely will not be doing construction anywhere but between Merced and Bakersfield until it is completed. State revenues through 2030, unless policy changes, are already all accounted for. Some of the things like deficit*X years inflation/X years of course is greatly simplified for purposes of illustration. And of course, dividing the deficit by current spending without accounting for inflation is nearly nonsensical, but again, its mainly to illustrate a point rather than to be mathematically accurate.
They should double track the whole line.
Of course they will when monthly ridership reaches around one million. With passing tracks it's not needed initially.
Just think if they built it down the middle of SR99 and I-5 they could of saved money and time.
At 0:37 220 mph? Didn't you estimate it wouldn't ever reach that speed?
I'm usually assuming that top operational speed will be 320km/h, since that's a pretty typical in-service ceiling in Europe. BLW themselves hasn't ever indicated anything more than 200mph.
My favorite part of the month😋
always look forward to these monthly videos
I always looking forward to you watching these monthly videos.
Just to clarify, is $120 billion the estimated cost for the whole HSR line from San Francisco to San Diego? And do I understand correctly that they have enough money for the initial section from Bakersfield to Merced? I have to admit that your videos have been a reality check for me. I had wanted to assume that the situation wasn't quite as bad as the negative media coverage has portrayed, but the project does seem to be in pretty rough shape, even with the recent grants from the federal government. One of the things that's really frustrating that you allude to is the massive construction costs in the US, which are far higher than other countries. Tunneling, for example, is about 3x more expensive here than in France, where the environmental laws are just as stringent, and where the workforce is more highly unionized. Researchers at NYU did a study on why infrastructure costs so much more here, and they found many factors, but one of them is the tendency to reinvent the wheel, and a refusal to learn from other countries. Costs end up ballooning, and it plays right into the hands of Republican naysayers who portray projects like HSR as wasteful, pie-in-the-sky porkbarrel projects. (Even though the costs of new freeway projects also tend to spiral out of control in the US. See the big dig in Boston, for example, which cost over $14 billion.) It's all very frustrating. I really pray that the federal government is able to pass the HSRA, but that is likely a heavy lift, and projects like this are likely to remain very precarious. And if California can't even pull off HSR, it doesn't give much hope for the rest of the country.
$120B would be for Phase 1 San Francisco to Anaheim, but as I said, that's not accounting for inflation beyond 2034, and Phase 1 will not be done even remotely close to 2034. They do NOT have the full funding for Merced-Bakersfield. They are currently about $5 billion short.
Cal HSR's budget was also used on a lot of local road/transit improvement projects, so "pork barrel project" is a quite accurate description for it.
War never changes
With Union workers on the job, should be completed by 2050 costing $500B!!!
So the Feds giving CHSR $3.6B will cover the interest. What will CHSR do when they get to the Tehachapi mountains ? Even California doesn’t have that kind of money. I knew California govt couldn’t be trusted with this big of a project in 2008 ! It will never be finished
Yeah, roughly 15 months of inflation at the current rate. Tehachapi is pretty far off. By current means its unlikely they would connect San Francisco too much earlier than 2050. It would probably be Anaheim-Burbank after that, then tackle Bakersfield-Burbank.
@@LucidStew Bakersfield to Burbank should have always been the first segment. Who in their right mind would take a 2.5 hour connecting bus ride?
what is a push up bar
pull up bar?
sort of, but for push-ups instead of pull-ups.
@@LucidStew just googled it
wooooo!
whats the name of the song used during most of the video?
'Eveningland' by Nimbus
highspeed with single track?!
indeed
Brightline i was on that only 5 times when i was in Florida, that train is detailed & kind of unique.
How did you like it?
@LucidStew It was alright & interesting thnx.
I've gotta ask, why finish with that big beautiful freeway? I can't tell if it's sarcasm, or trying to point out how large freeways are. Regardless, it doesn't seem on brand. Why not have something pro your channel?
And now I sound like I'm nitpicking, but have you given any thought on a channel rebrand? Lucid Stew might have been a fun name, but it gives no indication or implication that this channel is about trains.
@@MichaelClausing That outro tagline, or a variation of it, is in every high speed rail video I've done. That and "Hey, it's your old pal Lucid Stew, again!" are an indelible part of my brand. Your question amounts to "have you considered completely undoing all of your branding efforts to date and abandoning all the people that have supported you thus far?" The answer to that is: no, I have not considered that.
Where can I find a link to the discord?
Its in the description
You should do a comparison of history of HSR in US and history of HSR in China,because China also have a very short history of HSR which only started from 2008
Yeah, if compare CAHSR to China since 2008 that's a little embarrassing.
@@LucidStew Competion is a good thing,ONLY competion will make US goverment to build HSR quicker
China don't have massive land acquisition issues like Cal has. Also, China often build HSR stations out of the town centers to reduce cost.
Not even mentioning the labor cost difference...
@@onetwothreeabc The biggest difference is not land acquisition issues or labor cost,it is the government,it looks that US government really dont care much about people stuck in traffic congestion and people die in traffic accidents
@@chinaiscoming1017 You said as if people in China don't die from traffic accidents...
China built HSR partly because the passenger train capacity does not meet the demand. Japan developed the Tokaido Shinkansen for the same reason. This is not true in the US in most of the routes. SF-LA does have direct rail service, and it's not over capacity at all.
Soooo Brightline west cost 12 billion dollars, and that little viaduct cost 11 billion. lol 😂😂😂
I explained where the $11 billion went. The Fresno River Viaduct is one of dozens of structures that have been built.
When you realize no one who voted in Prop 1A will be alive by 2075 🤣
That's only 85 years after birth in 1990.
I think the spending does not have to keep up with inflation, as long as it's also growing at the same pace...
How does that make sense?
@@davidjackson7281 If the inflation is 3% and your spending is also increasing 3% every year, you will not lose the race.
It's like you are always spending the same amount in 2024 dollar, and the project cost is also in 2024 dollar.
@@onetwothreeabc Thats…keeping up with inflation
@@Nderak Lucid Stew seems to imply that the spending has to be more than the inflation x the total cost. The cost is about $9 bn, and assuming a 3% inflation, it's $2.7 bn. Current spending is $1.8 bn per year. He thinks this is bad.
It's only bad if it remains so. What I'm saying is that they need to spend more and they need more funding. A LOT more.
Will CAHSR ever be finished
Testing of trains and tracks starts in 2028. Substantial completion of Bakersfield to Merced in 2030. Initial fare operations in 2032-3.
Depends on your definition of finished. Initial operating segment, yes. Phase 1, probably never.
No. I say this with confidence because I do not believe I will live long enough to be proven wrong.
Yes.
Maybe. Only if politicians implement smarter policy that changes how infrastructure projects are funded.
The cost for a one way ticket from Rancho Cucamonga to Las Vegas is estimated to be $200 and that is insane. Brightline does not like to talk about that, I have seen numerous videos with brightline execs and whenever someone asks about ticket price the execs side step the question. I would never spend $400 for a round trip by rail. I can go to ontario and catch a flight for less money. A b737 probably uses less energy per person compared to the brightline rail.
Who estimated that? These trains can carry 2-4X more people than a 737, btw.
@@LucidStew Wes Edens told the LA Times that BLW tickets will eventually be around $400 round-trip.
@@shsd4130 When is "eventually" and what service level is that for?
@@LucidStew good question! He left it super vague, so your guess is as good as mine…
Man you really gotta get your “”news”” from places other than the NYP, what a trash tabloid.
What was wrong with the New York Post's reporting in this regard and it what way do you think my interpretation of the article was unduly influenced by the source?
Yogi bear?
Here there, Boo boo?
Honestly Stew, but I honestly hate all the negativity lauded onto CA HSR. I realize that you're just pointing out that CA HSR isn't building as fast as say the NEC, but then the NEC Has three times the workforce. Hey President Biden maybe get off your ass and send some crews to California?
Also, you seem to be another of the many who claim that CA HSR has nothing to show for all the work expended? Maybe if you'd leave Los Angeles and actually viewed the entire construction work in the three construction zones, maybe then you'd be able to post a more accurate look at the projects currently underway in the Central Valley?
My major complaint to the Biden Administration, where's all this Build Back Better funding; seems to me that most of the money's being taken up with Brightline West? Would that seem a fair assessment?
CA HSR only received one granting of 3.4 Billion; not the 5 Billion necessary to help pay for construction of the tunneling required to tie the Central Valley to the CalTrain corridor.
Brightline West has the advantage of benefitting two states rather than one, and it's an easier project to do. CAHSR could also stop giving us 2018 numbers for costs and ridership estimates, and show transparency by giving those numbers in more current form. Hopefully they pick up the pace of construction soon.
"Also, you seem to be another of the many who claim that CA HSR has nothing to show for all the work expended?"
I spent significant time in the video showing EXACTLY what they have to show for the expense.
I've been to the Central Valley and seen the project. The footage of the Fresno River Viaduct in Madera is by me. What is inaccurate? Be specific. I'd love to hear it since my source is the CAHSR Authority. What's yours?
It would not be a fair assessment to say that most of the IIJA money has gone to BLW. The total pot for intercity passenger rail is $36 billion. $24 billion goes to NEC, $12 billion to the rest of the country. BLW has gotten 1/4 of the FSP-National money because they are one of only 2 true high speed rail projects in the country outside of the NEC, CAHSR being the other(which has gotten $7 billion from the federal government now).
A lot of the money to the NEC has been for a tunnel they only need because they forgot to close the water tight doors when the hurricane arrived. Imagine if they could have spent the tunnel fund on important things like, well, track?
You thought all that money was actually going to be used for infrastructure? From an administration that funded 7 billion for a million charging stations for EVs and built, like, seven of them? Sorry, better luck next election.
Automated transportation system. ;op
CAHSR is a joke! for comparison. the Tren Maya began construction. in 2018 and is now in operation as of Dec 2023. We cannot even build trains in America anymore.
Algorithm
As a German, I'm curious how long it will take you Americans to realize that your whole concept of infrastructure financing (public-private partnership) doesn't work. Hint: Infrastructure is a national necessity and therefore _must_ be nationalized. To be clear, by infrastructure I mean the rails, the power grid, the highways. Let private companies (dissolve Amtrak!!!) run their own rolling stock and compete for attractive prices and services - just as any company can run its trucks on the highways as it sees fit. But for heaven's sake, nationalize the rails! That's how we do it in Europe, although we come from the other side, from fully nationalized and monopolized railroads. The middle way (nationalized tracks with privately owned and operated trains) is the only sensible way to deal with it.
That's a lot easier said than done. The freight companies have a lot of money, they're very well connected, and they own nearly all of the rail right of way. Also, the country would be obligated to redress them if the assets were seized and that could be intensely expensive.
@@LucidStew Think like a railroad tycoon! Is a rail network really an asset? Or is it more of a liability? It's only an asset if it's used as a monopoly, right? No other company is allowed to transport goods on that network. And that in 'Murica, the land of capitalism, the free market and competition! Tststs.
But even then, I'm not sure the monopoly advantage outweighs the maintenance costs of a huge network ... I'd give away a track network like that for free if the state took the maintenance costs off my hands and I could invest my money in rolling stock - or pay my shareholders even more dividends (which is more likely). And as far as the right of way is concerned, it's actually worthless if the line can't be shut down and the land can't be sold. So I'd just make a law (or better: a constitutional amendment!) that rail lines cannot be closed anymore. Which is a reasonable thing to do anyways. The right of way becomes worthless and the railroad companies will hand over the infrastructure happily, especially when they are threatened that safety measures against derailments might be tightened … (think of Palestine, Ohio!)
@@hape3862 You can be completely assured that freight rail companies are not going to give away any right of way that they consider valuable. Also, if seizure is attempted, you can be guaranteed of a lengthy legal battle, and the U.S. federal government having to pay top dollar for it as a result. You're not going to have a constitutional amendment as you propose. It's very difficult to amend the Constitution, requires a lot of political momentum, and that's not coming from an issue very few people care about like not being able to close rail lines.
@@LucidStew Hm, so you're stuck between a rock and a hard place, it seems. So much for "We, the people" …
@@hape3862 The people have access to the system, but that generally happens though Congress as a regular course of business rather than changing the foundational law of the land. However, even then, because people here have rights and corporations are considered people, you can't just seize property, and rightfully so. I don't want a corporation's assets seized without redress anymore than I want the same to happen to me.
Bro, CHSR could use taxpayers to fund the, I mean why can’t the government just give them the money if they are giving around 80% of the 120 billion budget to Israel? if that makes sense, like come on
Because if they don't you will get an invitation to join the army.
@@tonyburzio4107 and I’ll be like no lol
More wealthy, powerful people are worrying about Israel than HSR. California can do this by itself. I don't see why we need to wait for the federal government to come around.
@@LucidStew Good Point, but I’m just saying think of how fast this would go if the government stepped in and had taxpayers money go to this project, I think a lot more people would be Feeling positive that their money was going to this
@@RailMan102_Productions Yes, it's nice to dream, but I really don't see the political winds shifting that strongly nationally, at least not in the next 15-20 years.
Look at how cheaply China does high speed rail. Money is being wasted and funneled away. Have China come in and do the us high speed rail for a fraction of the cost
The very expensive part, being land acquisition for the ROW, would still be the same. But perhaps having the Chinese dig the 55 miles of tunnels could make sense.
so the CAHSR isnt happening pretty much..
Well, Merced-Bakersfield, probably happening. The rest...?
Just to point out, very few people live in the Merced to Bakersfield section any more. Bakersfield is having problems with cannibalism. (!)
@@tonyburzio4107 what?! 😅
So you didn't watch the update huh? The $13b has built something like 35 structures with another 35 or so projects open.
@@kim.jong.skillz I saw the video and he explained the cost keeps ballooning upwards of $100 billion with no secured funding for the whole project in sight. I am all for high speed rail in the United States but this is ridiculously poorly planned and I’m losing hope that it will ever be completed given what was shared in this video.
Why are we still building wheeled trains?
Do you want them to fly?
In short, it is proven, effective, and cheaper. Even so, California is struggling to pay for it in Texas is struggling to get any support. Any attempt at maglev trains will have virtually no chance of success in the United States at this time.
Because the technical term for a human sitting on a large unshielded magnetic field is "dialysis".
If California wants to find the 2.73 billion dollars it needs to have a modern railway system maybe it ought to think about taking it out of the 378 billion dollars it pays in taxes to the Federal budget every year.... tax dollars largely used to prop up money eating welfare dumps like Alabama or South Carolina. Currently California contributes one in every eight dollars of the Federal budget. It might think about asking for a tax rebate!
I think we need solutions that can actually happen. Although, California, as one of most left-leaning states in the union, complaining about redistributionist policies is a bit rich.
@@LucidStew Funny how these "left leaning" states always seem to earn more than the right wing ones. The USA ought to think about redistributing some of its inflated military budget. A single B2 bomber costs around 2 billion today plus an eye watering 135,000 dollars an hour to fly the damn things. Explain to me how a country doesn't blink at paying 916 billion dollars a year on its armed forces but can't find the wherewithal to build a couple of hundred miles of railway track.
@@michaelafrancis1361 Lockheed-martin is in California. Part of the richness of California comes from those military budgets.
@@michaelafrancis1361 Because the phrase "provide for the common defence" is in the Constitution and "build a high speed rail line for California" isn't. I would submit to you, however, that if some of the defense budget were peeled off, the other 49 states would probably prefer it go to them for whatever intrastate project they've cooked up.
This issue of states paying more to Washington than the federal government will spend in and on them has been an issue ever since we became a country; and definitely since we established an income tax!
Americans do not want high speed rail, Americans like to drive themselves. I will never ride these trains if they are ever completed.
Ok. I will and I'm an American.
@@LucidStew The speeds are terrible and who wants to spend that much time with public scum. The bathrooms on those trains will have trash cans full of poop covered toilet paper because the dumb portion of the population sems to think you can't flush toilet paper and the bathrooms will be full of graffiti scribed into every surface. I go to Vegas twice a month on average and I drive the cajon pass probably 4 days a week. I live off grid on 400 acres in the Mojave Desert area. I drive because I like to be in control of when I come and go and I like to be able to move around any time I want. I usually fly to vegas but sometimes I drive and from my property I reach Henderson Executive airport in 45 minutes. Not one person I know has said thet will ride the train, they all said they have no desire to ever take a train to a destination that is only 300 miles away. I guarantee I can make it to vegas faster by car than that train.
@@ChrisHarding-lk3jj You have some imagination. If you genuinely think you can outrun a 200mph train, okie dokie.
@@LucidStew The average speed will be much lower especially with all the stops. I bet the train will run at around 50mph on the grades of the cajon pass. The government and companies always over prime and under deliver. All of the slow sections of track will bring the average speed down quite a bit. If they actually manage to build the train I will post a video beating the train. What concerns me is that the rail construction will create massive traffic to Vegas for the next decade. I am sure I will be taking my Merlin to Vegas most of the time. I can also smoke in my plane and my cars the entire trip.
@@LucidStewmaybe no one in his little corner of the world will use this train, but a growing majority of Americans, namely younger generations who want alternatives to driving for intercity travel that aren’t flying, want to see HSR happen here. He also appears to fail to understand the difference between local transit (i.e. news stories about LA Metro and BART) and intercity transit like Amtrak or Brightline.
If he’s out in the desert already well on the way to Vegas, then it probably is faster to drive by the time you backtrack to the Victor Valley station, wait to get on a train then find a means to reach whatever your destination is in or around Las Vegas. It’d be a bit like outracing CAHSR to SF or LA if the start line were some remote spot along 99 or I-5. There are certain scenarios where driving beats HSR, but that’s due to local and regional transit that connects to HSR, not HSR itself. Driving RC to LV and vice versa will be slower than BLW, even on days with no traffic, and every person on the train means less traffic for those who’ll keep driving, which should be a win for everyone. Same will be the case for every US HSR system that opens, especially with improved regional and local transit that connects with it.