I wore my Foolish Baseball hat running errands and a cashier at CVS said “is that a foolish baseball hat? I made fun of him on Twitter and he blocked me” so I just laughed and said “that’s hilarious”
The military shouldve developed and implemented a WAR type stat long ago. I yearn to know how much value Ted Williams added over a replacement level soldier.
Growing up he was my brother's favorite pitcher. So I was aware of him and thought he was better than he was (he had some phenomenal seasons). I thought Sabermetrics was his way of teaching baseball or something for at least a year.
After a major injury, like TJ, ACL, MCL, some of the should stuff, if the player will spend the entire time using it they should be allowed to take HGH. That's my hot take
“The single can score the runner from second which the walk can’t do” lowkey that’s a great argument for batting avg being more important than we let in nowadays
Not really cuz its super conditional. A home run is a run every-time. A single needs multiple things to happen before it or after it to hold any real weight in a game. Look at arraez and schwarber. Identical OPS. Both hit leadoff. Ones a contact hitter and ones a power hitter. Schwarber produces wayyyy more runs and his WPA is far higher. Power will always be king
@@ruloez5587 his point is that singles are better than walks which is why batting average is important. Nobody reasonably questions if a single is better than a home run.
I know the value is likely negligible but I hope that Hawkeye allows the opportunity to create a "Stretch metric" for 1st basemen. The idea that baseball is truly a game of inches could be determined by how many outs a 1B saves by simply stretching better than others. I also think this might be where 1B finally accrue their ultimate defensive value.
I’ve played first and it is super important on stretching and also trust. If you can stretch far forward or to the side. Especially side to side where you can’t/or won’t be able to scoop. Especially when you have a worse infield.
Well, i saw a guy commenting on Ohtani vid "it's not fair to compare Vlad with Ohtani by total WAR, since WAR pitching is easier to get than batting." Blown my mind. So I asked, "Damn. I wonder why other batters didnt figure this out and also pitch like Ohtani does???" Didnt get the reply though, what a shame.
That one lamenting the aesthetic consequences of sabermetrics while still acknowledging it's superiority is 100% right, I just think I would've worded it as "The Sabermetrics revolution and it's consequences have been a disaster for the human race."
My hot take: obp(and all the sabermetrics based on it) is inherantly biased against contact hitters because of an old statistic: errors. Reaching on error should absolutely count positively towards your obs rather than negatively impacting average and obp. If the error is a mistake that the batter supposedly contributed nothing to, then you could extend that same logic to walks or hpb, but that's obviously not the case. Making contact and having speed absolutely contributes to reaching on more errors.
id agree but i dont think it would be enough to make a severe impact in a players obp. its not happening to them like 20 times a year so the difference would be really slim.
I’m not sure that there are enough batters reaching on an error enough times per season to see any serious increase in OBP if they were counted toward it. Like, I was trying to think of guys who would benefit the most from something like this. I came up with Luis Arraez, he’s got a contact hitter sort of thing going on. I counted 5 times he reached on an error in 2022. I don’t think that’s moving the needle on his OBP much.
True. Luck is an under appreciated element in all sports, honestly. But baseball is tailor made for luck, whether it good or bad. Just look at the MLB playoffs each year. It’s truly the only professional sport where all you need to do is make the dance, and whoever gets the hottest wins a world championship.
The Ohtani WAR argument is strange because if he keeps his pace for the last quarter of the season he’ll finish with 10.8 RWar which would be the 20th best season ever. Now is not the best season ever in terms of WAR, but it’s in the conversation
Yeah I feel people are paying more attention to the hitting overall but his pitching really caught up. He's been doing very well the last two months. It's unreal.
I'm not one for overemotional hot takes, so I really appreciate the nuance you bring in discussing and considering each one. I'd love to see another if you're in the mood!
Batting average isn't just important in terms of on base percentage - it's also important because a hit can score a run where a walk can't. If someone has a terrible batting average but a great OBP, that guy is worse with a man on second or third than a guy with the same OBP but a better batting average. If you get a hit, there's also always the possibility someone screws up in the field and lets you take an extra base, so I'd argue hits are actually far superior to walks. Sluggers with terrible batting averages also are more likely to strike out which makes them even worse with men in scoring position. A guy with a high BA is more likely to put the ball in play so they can at least advance runners or score a guy from third without even getting the hit.
i would agree with u but thats super situational. in a 162 game season. a low average, high obp high slugging guy is gonna produce more runs then a high average high obp low slugging guy. power is a game changer. literally. entire games, series, seasons are changed by extra base hits. singles are good, but it takes so much before them and after them to hold any value. schwarber for example is more likely to impact a game then say luis arraez. the ability to walk replace batting average in a player’s ops. and slugging will always produce more runs. always. especially with hits being so scarce in mlb.
I can see both sides where having a high obp is better long term but having a higher average is better situationally most likely. I am one of those fans that still values traditional stats like average for sure, a player hitting .220 with a .400 obp is way different than a guy hitting .280 with a .400 obp. I also value bat on ball skills and contact way more than pure slugging which is the opposite of what the metrics want. I'll take a player that can put the ball in play over a guy that is a three true outcomes hitter.
I agree with the batting average one. Ever since Moneyball came out, there has been an obsession with OBP as if one point of OBP is the same as one point of BA, which is not true. BA is not an extension of OBP, and if anything it is the other way around. Walks are important, but not nearly as valuable as hits.
I’ve always felt that when it comes to sabermetrics; they’re so awesome because they give love to some guys who previously didn’t, but also it makes me sad because I look back on guys like Ichiro, my favorite player ever, and it makes me want to add an asterisk to his success. But then I remember the great Jon Bois who said “who cares?”
There’s no asterisk to Ichiro. WAR was friendly to him thanks to his defense and baserunning. He had a whopping 9.2 in 2004. 60 total WAR despite starting at age 27. Could have easily had 80-90 WAR if he started between 19 to 21 years old. He was an incredible player.
@@LorianandLothric WAR is friendly thanks to the defense and baserunning but his hitting isn’t valued that highly because of how often his batted balls stayed in the infield, and his low Slugging % for a corner outfielder. But I simply don’t care about his “inefficient hitting” because he’s cool and infield hits are fun.
@@jarrodschulz9611 That still doesn’t mean there’s an asterisk. There’s more to a player than slugging. He also rarely grounded into double plays, which helped his WAR.
you really don't need to dive into sabermetrics to appreciate Ichiro, and doing so is overanalyzing. 200+ hits for 10 straight years including his age 36 season is historically great, even if he didn't walk much and had no power outside of BP.
@@niceguy909 That’s exactly what I’m saying. I love using sabermetrics to find out cool stuff about niche players but I try to never use them to nitpick players that are really good because that’s never any fun.
The pursuit of efficiency has taken away the speed tool from players, so really it's just a 4 tool player with some peripheral athleticism yo want nowadays, rather than dynamic, disruptive players. I feel like baserunning as a whole is being devalued, which is such a shame because the footraces are what make baseball exciting
Your pujols steroid era argument was great. I could never quite make sense of his steep decline until you just helped me figure it out. Go cards! We miss ya big Al
As an Australian who has always enjoyed cricket I honestly found myself adoring baseball and found sabermetrics really interesting. Honestly I wish cricket applied these principles particularly to the T20 format which I feel is the most comparable to baseball.
They sort of do. Lots of interest placed on strikes rates against boundaries these days. Someone who has 18 off 12 balls with three 4s and a 6 has wasted eight balls for example.
@@ahogg5960 I was also thinking about fielding and what makes for good "defensive" fielding. Also stuff with hitting and pitching in baseball could kind be applied to cricket as well.
Hot take: peak production/WAR should be valued more highly than bulk WAR/stat accumulation when considering HOF cases. Also I love this video format and would like to see more hot take vids like this, especially if they can be produced on a bi-weekly basis in between other videos
Hot take 1: peak production is overvalued when considering HOF cases these days. Hot take 2: if peak production advocates believed what they were selling, Ralph Kiner would be their patron saint and not considered a borderline HOFer.
This isn’t really a hot take, as JAWS already balances peak vs bulk WAR. So yeah, not a terrible thought you had there! :] en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaffe_Wins_Above_Replacement_Score
@@JosephGualtieri Ralph Kiner ranks 9th on the left field JAWS leaderboard... which is pretty good. The only reason he's a borderline HOFer is because he fell off so fast. If he could've put up the kind of production he did over his last 2-3 years for another 3-4, he ends up hitting a lot of the counting milestones - 2K hits, 500 homers, etc, which would make him seem like a much more solid case I also can't think of any contemporary players who had such a great but short peak as Kiner and then stopped playing entirely. The closest would be someone like Grady Sizemore, but he wasn't as good as Kiner. Also noteworthy that basically every player in this category didn't retire under normal circumstances, they were pretty much all forced out due to injuries.
@@dkroll92 Kiner played 10 years, which is the minimum required for induction. He won a HR title in 7 of those years. If you believe peak production is more important than compiling totals, you have to consider him one of the best players ever. How many other players won HR titles in 70% of their seasons?
The fact that saber metrics has revealed strategies that make baseball less exciting to watch...is the best proof there is that baseball needs to be changed. Subtly! Nothing crazy! But I feel like it's the impetus to change the ball to make it less energetic, or to raise the seams so it slows down more (and moves more) in flight. Maybe push the mound back as well. Possibly change up the balk rules so it's easier for runners to get a good jump (put down the pitchforks! It will make sense if you just think it through!) I reject the notion of restricting strategies though (ie., getting ride of the shift). Give the players *more* options and make the task *more* difficult so it's hard to stop the offense. Don't make the game *easier* and then *restrict* choices. That only leads to anger, and anger leads to hate, and hate leads to..... I dunno, Ichiro will be sad folks. Don't let it happen!
I love everything that you said. I would like to add that keeping the shift in the game encourages hitters to learn to put the ball in different places. The shift never could keep down players like Tony Gwynn and Joey Voto who know how to hit the ball in opposite field when they have to. Allowing defenses to keep the shift encourages players to learn to contact hit. We should also consider shortening the base paths to give a higher average to players who put the ball in play and sprint to first base
What would you think if we had a baseball Diamond where the paths to first base and home plate were shorter than the paths to second and third base? Sure, the diamond would be a weird shape, but more players would be willing to try to get hits out of ground balls and you might even successfully resurrect a stolen home plate.
@@metalhammerm6903 in my head that looks super goofy, but I do like the logic. I feel the big reason it may work is it would pull the corners up which might leave a little more space for hits to land in short left/right. But here’s the real blasphemy…how about just having 7 on the field? 2 outfield and 3 infield. That should drive BABIP through the roof. Plus, bonus, even just a threat to steal would have an effect. Suddenly the middle infielder would have to decide between being ready to cover the bag on a steal, or play into whatever shift is required for this batter.
@@TheActualJae they have 7s rugby, why not try out 7s baseball? i’d definitely be interested in seeing how a test league for something like this would go
Disagree to a certain extent. I think its the commissioner and MLB's job to make the game aesthetically pleasing to watch, however Manfred is going at it very incorrectly by over correcting on the fly. The NBA changed the defense to open up offense because there were series like the late 90s Knicks-Heat which were overly physical and ended up with 67-58 scores with tons of bricks. The average fan would rather watch high scoring games. This is also why I would ban the shift. I would rather watch a lefty get a base hit than a 2nd baseman become a softball outfielder and throw him out.
(Speaking of Mattingly as a great example) Mattingly is the player that exemplifies how stupid WAR is. He added more defensively to the mid-80s Yankees than any player. But WAR makes his defense look like a liability, because it couldn't measure that he turned so many errors and infield hits into outs. Instead, it sees him as a first-baseman and says, "meh."
4:13 I created a stat called BRPA (bases plus runs per plate appearance: [Total bases via hits + walks + HBP + reaches on error + RBI] / PA) that is a lot like OPS except the common denominator it uses is plate appearances and it factors in RBI. Plus then you get an almost reverse stat for pitchers which I called BRBF (bases plus runs per batter faced)
My sabermetric hot take is that sabermetrics says to swing for the gaps, not the fences. Not every athlete has the raw power to put fly balls over the fence, and line drives are good for both OBP and SLG.
I like the video. It creates a fun baseball conversation. My hot take is that relief pitcher ERA is incredibly flawed. Instead, I submit the statistic: "Inherited Earned Runs". In this system, each base is worth .25 of an earned run. So if a reliever comes in with a man on 2nd base, and he allows him to score, the reliever is charged with .5 of an earned run, and so is the pitcher who allowed him to reach 2nd. I've done this stat keeping for quite a few Strat-o-matic games and it really fills out the statistics to more completely tell the "story" of a pitcher's performance.
I would say that batting average is important in a way that a lot of stats are important. A line of .315/.410/.905 is better than a line of .290/.410/.905. I would rather that the player be hitting to get on base than walking, if all things are equal. I would not sacrifice OPS for average, which I think a lot of batting average proponents suggest.
Here's the thing about stats, they attempt to use a proxy of something measurable in place of how good a player is. Over time, as they are adopted by those who dole out contracts, people who perform better on those measures than their actual skill will become overrepresented and the stats will become less useful over time. For example, the best players tend to have higher batting averages. So they hire players who have higher averages, even if they aren't getting walks. Then, they realized that OBP accounts for those players too, so more and more players who walk and hit less started coming in. Then, OPS became more popular because walks were not as productive as hits and OPS accounts for productivity. So more and more 3 true outcome players came in. And if you have too many of those, they can't string together hits and win close games or beat top pitchers. As the saying goes, all models are wrong. Some, however, are useful.
I don’t like slugging percentage because the stat is just total bases over at bats but for some reason doesn’t take stolen bases into account, which is an extra base that the player obtained, and therefore should be added to slugging percentage. The title slugging percentage should be changed anyway because it doesn’t really accurately depict slugging and is simply based on the total number of bases a player obtained. This is also why I don’t always like ops and ops+, especially when using it for speedy guys who steal a lot of bases. If a player gets caught stealing, then they should lose a total base to make it more fair.
Yeah I think it’d be cool if SB was added to slugging to better show value. A triple increases your slugging more than a double, but 9/10 times the double was a better hit ball. Triples are the result of speed and/or a ball hit to a weird place / in a weird way. You didn’t “slug” a ball better on a triple than a double.
Playing OOTP I kinda' hate two way players. I mean I currently have one AWESOME right fielder that starts so I have one less pitcher I need to put on my roster! On the low side when he starts he has to be replaced in the lineup about half the games of the season (even with a 6-man roster- one being a 'bullpen game'- he needs the day before and day after game day off!) so... there goes your roster flexibility when I HAVE to keep an extra capable RFer around anyway. Also it makes putting rosters together complicated esp if I had more starting caliber two way players :/.
@@wzac1234 not quite but yeah I have a deal like that where my top prospect- also a RFer thankfully- comes in when he pitches so the production is supplemented for the most part luckily- but that's not always gonna be the case.
Yeah that "Sabermetrics make my favorite players look worse" part, you showed me who Jeff Mathis was, you showed me who Tim Locastro was and I adore both of those players because of you.
Sabermetrics have completely altered the swings of the hitters, and to a lesser extent the pitching of the pitchers. They’re doing what their agents have told them gets them the biggest contract, rather than what their coaches and managers need them to do.
Im curious as to why you say that Ben Zobrist also "popularized" WAR? I feel like he also could be seen as someone who was a little over looked because of his great versatility being overlooked.
Literally in the sense that he peaked right as WAR was first developed and being talked about, so proponents of WAR were able to point to Zobrist and say "WAR captures his greatness in a way that traditional stats overlook" Another guy who predates WAR but was talked about by Bill James using the same logic was Craig Biggio. Not the best at anything, but not bad at anything either and very good at little things that were frequently overlooked. Had he come about a generation later, he'd be in the same conversation as Zobrist and Trout.
I believe Batting Average IS more important than On-Base Percentage. Yes, OBP correlates better with run production, but the causality flows the WRONG way. When a guy is fantastic at creating runs, pitchers avoid throwing to him. This means his OBP goes up, and his batting average goes down. Absent that effect, however, how could anyone argue that it is more important to get a walk with a runner at 2nd then to get a hit? A guy like Don Mattingly, in his prime, was SO valuable and drove in so many runs, because he could AVOID getting mere walks when there were runners on base. That's right: when he drove in 145 RBI it was because he was getting hits instead of walks. That makes him MORE valuable, the way a closer contribute more value per inning pitch than a starter.
‘Making your favourite player look worse’ - sabremetrics could make a Jeter, Ichiro or Gwynn look a bit eh. Even Griffey Jr to a certain extent (though I don’t believe that)
Hot Take: Percentages and rates of what type of hit (as well as walks and maybe RBI rates) should be given as part of sabermetrics instead of having to do more "research" to find it. Basically, tell me what is the rate of plate appearances that Joey Votto gets a single or double in, or tell me the percentage of base hits that Billy Hamilton gets when he swings the bat over bunting. Something around those lines.
FB, if you had Ohtani on your team who would you choose to be the 'extra' player on the roster? A) A RH DH who mashes lefties to platoon with Ohtani B) Another starting pitcher for a 6 man rotation C) an additional bench player for a 5 man bench rather than 4. ...Or D) another relief pitcher for the bullpen. Thanks!
The thing about OPS that bugs me is that it doesn't include SBs, which it should IMO. It's all about seeing how efficient a batter is, and stealing a bag should count towards the bases/ab part (while failing should count against it).
Well its more of a stat based solely on contributions from batting so I dont think baserunning should be calculated unless it can also include guys who score from second on a signle into that as well
this is what oWAR is for. It includes batting, baserunning, double play avoidance and I believe also the positional adjustment, but not fielding like regular bWAR.
Overall, yes, OBP is more important. But if I'm watching a game and there are two outs with a runner in scoring position, AVG it's probably the most important stat.
Love the break down of using saber to prop up maybe forgotten players vs tearing ppl down! Perfect example of how the eye test can be both rose colored and blind sometimes
Love the versatility question. I think about this often with Tony Phillips (as one does). Every time he filled in in the outfield, his positional adjustment would take a hit. But it also means his team didn't have to employ a shitty extra outfielder.
Analytics are very agnostic to how you win in the end. If by changing a little the game you make it more likely to win when you play an aesthetically pleasing game, then analytics will tell you to do just that. I think changes, either to the rules or the ball or whatever, that would incentivize balls in play would be better from a spectator's point of view. Home runs are nice and all but they would be even more cool if they'd be rarer. Also, since OBP is (rightly) so valued by ball clubs, having a lot of guys on base and fewer home runs would mean potentially more 2,3 or 4 runs homeruns that are really cool and hype from a spectator's point of view. Also, I think that if the ball was deadened they'd be less of an incentive to swing (since when HRs are less likely, trying for a walk is better) and guys would strike out less and leave less players on base. With more people on base, swinging for contact and putting the ball in play becomes then better than walking (you can score from second on a single as you said) which makes AVG a better stat. So yeah. I think it makes sense to incentivize balls in play.
Hey, a walk can score a runner from second. If you got Tim Locastro on second, and ball four just so happens to be a wild pitch when he takes off, boom.
I think OPS is a wonderful shorthand for a players offensive capabilities because it matches a grading scale almost perfectly. .750 is about average. 950, is an A level, .600 is abysmal D-. It doesn’t capture everything, but it’s good quick glance at the quality of offense from a player.
Love this content. Would like to see more like it! Also I would love to see a baseball bits on Andruw Jones, similar to the most recent one you did about Yadier Molina. I would love to hear you breakdown your reasons why you think he should, or should not be in the hall of fame. Either way it’s a controversial subject that I think is deserving of your analysis. I would love to see that, and I think many others would as well
I love this format. It’s like smart baseball popcorn. It’s perfect for having on in the background while I do house chores and want to rev up my brain but don’t want to listen to shouting talking heads on the news or a podcast that will like *really* make me think about stuff. Plus, it’s an approachable way for people like me to interact with your content if we want to. Maybe I have a hot take in me for next time! -sincerely, a patreon supporter who has never commented on one of your videos before
Yeah, but even within the scope of OBP, I think there is more than just a simple argument there. My question to those out there is who would you rather sign given that these two players are the same age and play the same position?... A guy who hit .280 and had a .350 OBP or the guy who hit .220 with a .365 OBP? Does this not have a pretty profound impact on RBI's, which is arguably the most important offensive stat there is towards winning baseball games?
I totally get what you're saying - in general I also feel like BA should be valued way more than walks because of the ability to get RBIs. But as for your question, I just need more information xD For example: 1) How consistent are both of them? (Okay, let's say both of them are gonna produce these stats and I know it) 2) How fast are they? (compared to each other) 3) If the second dude walks more often, he probably *does* get some contact, right? I'm not sure if he can consistently get that many walks if he can't hit pitches in the zone, so he has to have some skill with the bat to foul off pitches in the zone and force balls to walk. 4) How is *my* batting lineup looking? What do I need? What do I have?
@@boosteddrimmsu low average high OBP guys tend not to be contact hitters at all. Real players with numbers like that are your Joey Gallos and Carlos Penas... or Rob Deers for an older example. Where they do succeed is that they tend to hit for power. In this scneario, what you'd really want to look at is how their slugging numbers compare. If you have that, even without an exact breakdown of how they're getting on base, you can figure out their wOBA almost exactly... wOBA being useful, of course, because it uses linear weights which scale outcomes to their run scoring value. In this case, assuming both players had the exact same slugging percentage - let's say .450, which is realistic for a .280 contact hitter as well as a .220 three true outcomes guy. In that case, the low average/OBP high guy is going to produce about 1.025x as many runs over a given period of time as the other guy. Which really isn't all that much, but adds up over the course of a season. (I can explain the math in more detail)
I saw a video showing that Pujols aging is almost exactly in line with someone 2 years older than him. It was not at all unheard of for international players to lie about they're age when he came in.
I watched a mariners game where the entire opposing team was shifted from the bunt line. Mariners were 8th in the lineup with no outs and 1 man on base while 5 down. No bunts to get on base with a near guarantee for success. Two outs later we got to the top of our line up, we loaded bases and lost the game on a pop-up. This is where three true outcomes fail.
A hit and a walk are not equal. A hit is a superior outcome. A walk is inherently passive and subjects the batter to outside forces such as poor ball/strike calls, and the catcher’s framing abilities. Optimizing a hitting approach for reaching base via the hit removes those outcomes. It does expose you to poor fair/foul calls but those outcomes are rare. Therefore if Joey Votto and Tim Anderson have the same OBP I would argue that Tim Anderson is a more valuable hitter due to his on-base event composition. (What skill is more sustainable is a different argument.)
My personal sabermetric hot take is that weighted stats (everything with a +) should ALWAYS take defensive position into account, so the average 1B gets the same as the average C, average RF, etc.
My hot take for baseball in general is that foul outs are stupid and no ball hit foul should be in play for the batter OR the fielder under any circumstances
Like ur jersey can u make a soccer channel. Love to see someone finally be able to bring stats to soccer. Like analyzing how valuable haaland actually was since city really didn’t score all that many more goals
Total bases + stolen bases + walks is the best overall stat to measure hitter prowess Isn't the point of baseball to go around the diamond and score? So whatever measures that is the purest way of saying how good at offense you are Total bases is incomplete, since it ignores stolen bases and walks. I propose we add those to the stat to get true total bases, TTB Top ten all time: 1. Barry Bonds 9048 (should be in HOF) 2. Henry Aaron 8498 3. Rickey henderson 8184 4. Ty Cobb 8000 5. Babe Ruth 7978 6. Willie Mays 7868 7. Stan Musial 7811 8. Carl yastrzemski 7552 9. Pete Rose 7516 (should be in HOF) 10. Alex Rodriquez 7480 Rickey henderson is specially helped by TTB, without it he's like 20th
ERA isn’t a good measure for relievers. If a closer gives up a run while up by 2 in the ninth it doesn’t matter, but if a starter does so in the 4th it actually does.
Especially cuz they replaced him with a stones-for-hands Corey Seager. But hey Mike Young also had stones-for-hands but he was a serviceable shortstop. Just don't think he and his 35m was a large enough upgrade to IKF.
![ARGENTINA vs. CHILE [3-0] | RESUMEN | ELIMINATORIAS SUDAMERICANAS | FECHA 7](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/De3AWmXzhuA/mqdefault.jpg)
“Mike Trout is built for WAR.” A sentence that would take on a very different meaning in a different type of draft.
Being that he is built like a house that statement is most likely true as wel
He already looks like a jarhead lol
Uncle Sam wants FISH (Trout)!
Mike Trout is built for whatever WAR that supports your argument
Trouts 6’3, 230 pounds and has a huge chest and tree trunk legs. The guy looks like Steve after he got the super soldier serum.
I wore my Foolish Baseball hat running errands and a cashier at CVS said “is that a foolish baseball hat? I made fun of him on Twitter and he blocked me” so I just laughed and said “that’s hilarious”
incredible. can i share this comment on Twitter? the cashier won't see it.
@@FoolishBailey 💀💀💀
Oh he is a blocker? Dissapointing.
@@readilium3432 ?????
I've only blocked like 30 people on Twitter. Only if they're unbelievably rude or annoying, or they snitch tag.
Imagine Ted Williams WAR if he didn’t fight in them too.
The military shouldve developed and implemented a WAR type stat long ago. I yearn to know how much value Ted Williams added over a replacement level soldier.
Apparently he was a good pilot, so i imagine his WAR would be huge in both senses
Sabermetrics should only be unique/obscure stats about Bret Saberhagen.
Growing up he was my brother's favorite pitcher. So I was aware of him and thought he was better than he was (he had some phenomenal seasons). I thought Sabermetrics was his way of teaching baseball or something for at least a year.
Dude is a cheat code in the show
Hall of Stats finds him to be a deserving Hall of Famer who hasn’t been inducted
SaberBretrics
Framing stats need to be Angel Hernandez adjusted, just like Coors Field is for other stats.
You should do a video explaining every single sabermetric stat imaginable
it would be 2 hours long and i would watch every second of it
no 100%
They're a few years old but his OOTP tutorials cover a lot of them
Yes please
Yes please
Mike Trout should try eating a healthy and balanced breakfast. Maybe then he’d be the GOAT
After a major injury, like TJ, ACL, MCL, some of the should stuff, if the player will spend the entire time using it they should be allowed to take HGH.
That's my hot take
He needs some milk
“The single can score the runner from second which the walk can’t do” lowkey that’s a great argument for batting avg being more important than we let in nowadays
Not really cuz its super conditional. A home run is a run every-time. A single needs multiple things to happen before it or after it to hold any real weight in a game. Look at arraez and schwarber. Identical OPS. Both hit leadoff. Ones a contact hitter and ones a power hitter. Schwarber produces wayyyy more runs and his WPA is far higher. Power will always be king
@@ruloez5587 his point is that singles are better than walks which is why batting average is important. Nobody reasonably questions if a single is better than a home run.
thank god i needed something to watch while eating food
I know the value is likely negligible but I hope that Hawkeye allows the opportunity to create a "Stretch metric" for 1st basemen. The idea that baseball is truly a game of inches could be determined by how many outs a 1B saves by simply stretching better than others. I also think this might be where 1B finally accrue their ultimate defensive value.
I hope this comes to be. The only thing I dislike about WAR is how much it buries the average 1B/DH type compared to other positions
Ji Man Choi would dominate this stat 😂
I’ve played first and it is super important on stretching and also trust. If you can stretch far forward or to the side. Especially side to side where you can’t/or won’t be able to scoop. Especially when you have a worse infield.
You could probably do that by measuring the "catch probability" of infielder throws somehow.
the only flaw with that stat is that first basemen who have accurate infielders who dont make bad throws wont have to stretch much
Mike Trout's traditional stats are actually pretty good, too.
Ah yes, the floor here is made out of floor
Well, i saw a guy commenting on Ohtani vid "it's not fair to compare Vlad with Ohtani by total WAR, since WAR pitching is easier to get than batting."
Blown my mind.
So I asked, "Damn. I wonder why other batters didnt figure this out and also pitch like Ohtani does???"
Didnt get the reply though, what a shame.
Hahaha what about Coors lol. I would rather hit there than pitch...
That one lamenting the aesthetic consequences of sabermetrics while still acknowledging it's superiority is 100% right, I just think I would've worded it as "The Sabermetrics revolution and it's consequences have been a disaster for the human race."
"Industrialized Baseball and Its Future"
My hot take: obp(and all the sabermetrics based on it) is inherantly biased against contact hitters because of an old statistic: errors. Reaching on error should absolutely count positively towards your obs rather than negatively impacting average and obp. If the error is a mistake that the batter supposedly contributed nothing to, then you could extend that same logic to walks or hpb, but that's obviously not the case. Making contact and having speed absolutely contributes to reaching on more errors.
I'd be interested in seeing which batters generate the most errors by the defense, for sure.
@@katabat3837 my guess is the speedy guys that got a lot of infield hits.
id agree but i dont think it would be enough to make a severe impact in a players obp. its not happening to them like 20 times a year so the difference would be really slim.
I’m not sure that there are enough batters reaching on an error enough times per season to see any serious increase in OBP if they were counted toward it.
Like, I was trying to think of guys who would benefit the most from something like this. I came up with Luis Arraez, he’s got a contact hitter sort of thing going on. I counted 5 times he reached on an error in 2022. I don’t think that’s moving the needle on his OBP much.
How does reaching on an error negatively impact your average and obp? It doesn’t effect it at all, neither positively or negatively.
Hot take: Luck is an under appreciated element in baseball.
that’s why barrel % is such a huge stat. Yankees used it to reason their trades for Tauchman and Voit and Urshela back in the day.
True. Luck is an under appreciated element in all sports, honestly. But baseball is tailor made for luck, whether it good or bad. Just look at the MLB playoffs each year. It’s truly the only professional sport where all you need to do is make the dance, and whoever gets the hottest wins a world championship.
@@conbitches obviously not a hockey fan eh? Seeding is almost irrelevant in the NHL playoffs
Luck is the main reason I don't like expanded playoffs.
@@davidrafferty2491 Hockey is another good example, yes. Hence my note about luck being prevalent in almost all sports.
That first guy's take was horrible
Eww i bet he has a series about the history of professional baseball in Tampa Bay Florida- I would never watch him 😑
this format was dope, like a baseball nerd's version of Fantano's "Let's Argue"
Got that vibe right from the beginning
I'm still pissed at Bailey for giving Rod Barajas a "NOT GOOD"
I was literally binging those all day yesterday. A welcome video in my sub box
i was literally just thinking this
@aaa damn you're soooo mad 😂😂😂😂
The Ohtani WAR argument is strange because if he keeps his pace for the last quarter of the season he’ll finish with 10.8 RWar which would be the 20th best season ever. Now is not the best season ever in terms of WAR, but it’s in the conversation
Yeah I feel people are paying more attention to the hitting overall but his pitching really caught up. He's been doing very well the last two months. It's unreal.
I'm not one for overemotional hot takes, so I really appreciate the nuance you bring in discussing and considering each one. I'd love to see another if you're in the mood!
ready for the fantano-esque weekly LETS ARGUE from foolish bailey
Batting average isn't just important in terms of on base percentage - it's also important because a hit can score a run where a walk can't. If someone has a terrible batting average but a great OBP, that guy is worse with a man on second or third than a guy with the same OBP but a better batting average. If you get a hit, there's also always the possibility someone screws up in the field and lets you take an extra base, so I'd argue hits are actually far superior to walks.
Sluggers with terrible batting averages also are more likely to strike out which makes them even worse with men in scoring position. A guy with a high BA is more likely to put the ball in play so they can at least advance runners or score a guy from third without even getting the hit.
i would agree with u but thats super situational. in a 162 game season. a low average, high obp high slugging guy is gonna produce more runs then a high average high obp low slugging guy. power is a game changer. literally. entire games, series, seasons are changed by extra base hits. singles are good, but it takes so much before them and after them to hold any value. schwarber for example is more likely to impact a game then say luis arraez. the ability to walk replace batting average in a player’s ops. and slugging will always produce more runs. always. especially with hits being so scarce in mlb.
The only time a walk can score a run is during a bases loaded situation.
I can see both sides where having a high obp is better long term but having a higher average is better situationally most likely. I am one of those fans that still values traditional stats like average for sure, a player hitting .220 with a .400 obp is way different than a guy hitting .280 with a .400 obp. I also value bat on ball skills and contact way more than pure slugging which is the opposite of what the metrics want. I'll take a player that can put the ball in play over a guy that is a three true outcomes hitter.
Peripherals: for nerds & front office
Results: for awards & fan attraction
I agree with the batting average one. Ever since Moneyball came out, there has been an obsession with OBP as if one point of OBP is the same as one point of BA, which is not true. BA is not an extension of OBP, and if anything it is the other way around. Walks are important, but not nearly as valuable as hits.
I’ve always felt that when it comes to sabermetrics; they’re so awesome because they give love to some guys who previously didn’t, but also it makes me sad because I look back on guys like Ichiro, my favorite player ever, and it makes me want to add an asterisk to his success. But then I remember the great Jon Bois who said “who cares?”
There’s no asterisk to Ichiro. WAR was friendly to him thanks to his defense and baserunning. He had a whopping 9.2 in 2004. 60 total WAR despite starting at age 27. Could have easily had 80-90 WAR if he started between 19 to 21 years old. He was an incredible player.
@@LorianandLothric WAR is friendly thanks to the defense and baserunning but his hitting isn’t valued that highly because of how often his batted balls stayed in the infield, and his low Slugging % for a corner outfielder. But I simply don’t care about his “inefficient hitting” because he’s cool and infield hits are fun.
@@jarrodschulz9611 That still doesn’t mean there’s an asterisk. There’s more to a player than slugging. He also rarely grounded into double plays, which helped his WAR.
you really don't need to dive into sabermetrics to appreciate Ichiro, and doing so is overanalyzing. 200+ hits for 10 straight years including his age 36 season is historically great, even if he didn't walk much and had no power outside of BP.
@@niceguy909 That’s exactly what I’m saying. I love using sabermetrics to find out cool stuff about niche players but I try to never use them to nitpick players that are really good because that’s never any fun.
The pursuit of efficiency has taken away the speed tool from players, so really it's just a 4 tool player with some peripheral athleticism yo want nowadays, rather than dynamic, disruptive players. I feel like baserunning as a whole is being devalued, which is such a shame because the footraces are what make baseball exciting
Your pujols steroid era argument was great. I could never quite make sense of his steep decline until you just helped me figure it out. Go cards! We miss ya big Al
He may be older than he claims too
I like the format, and think you should totally do it again!
As an Australian who has always enjoyed cricket I honestly found myself adoring baseball and found sabermetrics really interesting. Honestly I wish cricket applied these principles particularly to the T20 format which I feel is the most comparable to baseball.
They sort of do. Lots of interest placed on strikes rates against boundaries these days.
Someone who has 18 off 12 balls with three 4s and a 6 has wasted eight balls for example.
@@ahogg5960 I was also thinking about fielding and what makes for good "defensive" fielding. Also stuff with hitting and pitching in baseball could kind be applied to cricket as well.
Hot take: peak production/WAR should be valued more highly than bulk WAR/stat accumulation when considering HOF cases.
Also I love this video format and would like to see more hot take vids like this, especially if they can be produced on a bi-weekly basis in between other videos
Hot take 1: peak production is overvalued when considering HOF cases these days.
Hot take 2: if peak production advocates believed what they were selling, Ralph Kiner would be their patron saint and not considered a borderline HOFer.
This isn’t really a hot take, as JAWS already balances peak vs bulk WAR. So yeah, not a terrible thought you had there! :]
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaffe_Wins_Above_Replacement_Score
@@aaronsaron Not everyone uses JAWS, and it’s an argument that extends outside of baseball, too. See: arguments about Frank Gore in the NFL:
@@JosephGualtieri Ralph Kiner ranks 9th on the left field JAWS leaderboard... which is pretty good. The only reason he's a borderline HOFer is because he fell off so fast. If he could've put up the kind of production he did over his last 2-3 years for another 3-4, he ends up hitting a lot of the counting milestones - 2K hits, 500 homers, etc, which would make him seem like a much more solid case
I also can't think of any contemporary players who had such a great but short peak as Kiner and then stopped playing entirely. The closest would be someone like Grady Sizemore, but he wasn't as good as Kiner. Also noteworthy that basically every player in this category didn't retire under normal circumstances, they were pretty much all forced out due to injuries.
@@dkroll92 Kiner played 10 years, which is the minimum required for induction. He won a HR title in 7 of those years. If you believe peak production is more important than compiling totals, you have to consider him one of the best players ever. How many other players won HR titles in 70% of their seasons?
Grow the mustache Bailey. Ya gotta do it
He needs a Nestor 'Stache
The fact that saber metrics has revealed strategies that make baseball less exciting to watch...is the best proof there is that baseball needs to be changed.
Subtly! Nothing crazy!
But I feel like it's the impetus to change the ball to make it less energetic, or to raise the seams so it slows down more (and moves more) in flight. Maybe push the mound back as well. Possibly change up the balk rules so it's easier for runners to get a good jump (put down the pitchforks! It will make sense if you just think it through!)
I reject the notion of restricting strategies though (ie., getting ride of the shift). Give the players *more* options and make the task *more* difficult so it's hard to stop the offense. Don't make the game *easier* and then *restrict* choices. That only leads to anger, and anger leads to hate, and hate leads to..... I dunno, Ichiro will be sad folks. Don't let it happen!
I love everything that you said.
I would like to add that keeping the shift in the game encourages hitters to learn to put the ball in different places. The shift never could keep down players like Tony Gwynn and Joey Voto who know how to hit the ball in opposite field when they have to. Allowing defenses to keep the shift encourages players to learn to contact hit. We should also consider shortening the base paths to give a higher average to players who put the ball in play and sprint to first base
What would you think if we had a baseball Diamond where the paths to first base and home plate were shorter than the paths to second and third base? Sure, the diamond would be a weird shape, but more players would be willing to try to get hits out of ground balls and you might even successfully resurrect a stolen home plate.
@@metalhammerm6903 in my head that looks super goofy, but I do like the logic. I feel the big reason it may work is it would pull the corners up which might leave a little more space for hits to land in short left/right.
But here’s the real blasphemy…how about just having 7 on the field? 2 outfield and 3 infield. That should drive BABIP through the roof. Plus, bonus, even just a threat to steal would have an effect. Suddenly the middle infielder would have to decide between being ready to cover the bag on a steal, or play into whatever shift is required for this batter.
@@TheActualJae they have 7s rugby, why not try out 7s baseball? i’d definitely be interested in seeing how a test league for something like this would go
Disagree to a certain extent. I think its the commissioner and MLB's job to make the game aesthetically pleasing to watch, however Manfred is going at it very incorrectly by over correcting on the fly. The NBA changed the defense to open up offense because there were series like the late 90s Knicks-Heat which were overly physical and ended up with 67-58 scores with tons of bricks. The average fan would rather watch high scoring games. This is also why I would ban the shift. I would rather watch a lefty get a base hit than a 2nd baseman become a softball outfielder and throw him out.
As a Tiger’s fan it was really nice to here Candelario in there. Such a dynamic player.
(Speaking of Mattingly as a great example) Mattingly is the player that exemplifies how stupid WAR is. He added more defensively to the mid-80s Yankees than any player. But WAR makes his defense look like a liability, because it couldn't measure that he turned so many errors and infield hits into outs. Instead, it sees him as a first-baseman and says, "meh."
4:13 I created a stat called BRPA (bases plus runs per plate appearance: [Total bases via hits + walks + HBP + reaches on error + RBI] / PA) that is a lot like OPS except the common denominator it uses is plate appearances and it factors in RBI. Plus then you get an almost reverse stat for pitchers which I called BRBF (bases plus runs per batter faced)
Didn't realize exactly how dominant he was until I looked at his baseball reference page. The amount of bolds is insane.
Are u talking abt pujols?
His last two seasons are sad though, because of how many games he missed. Injuries are hurting his GOAT chances
They’re going to run out of pixels
If you really want to have fun, look at Barry bonds baseball reference page and just stare at it for 10 minutes. Life changing experience
@@default0467 or compare him to Babe Ruth
My sabermetric hot take is that sabermetrics says to swing for the gaps, not the fences. Not every athlete has the raw power to put fly balls over the fence, and line drives are good for both OBP and SLG.
Miggy just went deep!! My favorite player hit his 500th HR on my birthday. One of the best birthday presents
So glad he hit No. 500 this season.
This is Anthony Fantano's "Let's Argue" but for baseball, and I love it.
I like the video. It creates a fun baseball conversation.
My hot take is that relief pitcher ERA is incredibly flawed. Instead, I submit the statistic: "Inherited Earned Runs". In this system, each base is worth .25 of an earned run.
So if a reliever comes in with a man on 2nd base, and he allows him to score, the reliever is charged with .5 of an earned run, and so is the pitcher who allowed him to reach 2nd.
I've done this stat keeping for quite a few Strat-o-matic games and it really fills out the statistics to more completely tell the "story" of a pitcher's performance.
You should do a video explaining wrc+. When I learned about how it’s compute that’s when I really got a better grasp at sybermetrics.
I get annoyed when people overuse SABR stats, but even using old school metrics Trout is one of the best
I would say that batting average is important in a way that a lot of stats are important. A line of .315/.410/.905 is better than a line of .290/.410/.905. I would rather that the player be hitting to get on base than walking, if all things are equal. I would not sacrifice OPS for average, which I think a lot of batting average proponents suggest.
I would like more of these. You kind of breaking down some arguments from both sides is pretty insightful to me.
I was seriously mad that this video ended, wanted it to be twice as long. I love hot takes in general.
I know nothing about baseball but I still love watching
Here's the thing about stats, they attempt to use a proxy of something measurable in place of how good a player is. Over time, as they are adopted by those who dole out contracts, people who perform better on those measures than their actual skill will become overrepresented and the stats will become less useful over time.
For example, the best players tend to have higher batting averages. So they hire players who have higher averages, even if they aren't getting walks. Then, they realized that OBP accounts for those players too, so more and more players who walk and hit less started coming in. Then, OPS became more popular because walks were not as productive as hits and OPS accounts for productivity. So more and more 3 true outcome players came in. And if you have too many of those, they can't string together hits and win close games or beat top pitchers.
As the saying goes, all models are wrong. Some, however, are useful.
Please do more of these videos! This is was great!
I don’t like slugging percentage because the stat is just total bases over at bats but for some reason doesn’t take stolen bases into account, which is an extra base that the player obtained, and therefore should be added to slugging percentage. The title slugging percentage should be changed anyway because it doesn’t really accurately depict slugging and is simply based on the total number of bases a player obtained. This is also why I don’t always like ops and ops+, especially when using it for speedy guys who steal a lot of bases. If a player gets caught stealing, then they should lose a total base to make it more fair.
Yeah I think it’d be cool if SB was added to slugging to better show value. A triple increases your slugging more than a double, but 9/10 times the double was a better hit ball. Triples are the result of speed and/or a ball hit to a weird place / in a weird way. You didn’t “slug” a ball better on a triple than a double.
SLG is a batting value.
Love the format. This could be a successful series for you a la Fantano's Let's Argue series.
I....agree!
Playing OOTP I kinda' hate two way players. I mean I currently have one AWESOME right fielder that starts so I have one less pitcher I need to put on my roster! On the low side when he starts he has to be replaced in the lineup about half the games of the season (even with a 6-man roster- one being a 'bullpen game'- he needs the day before and day after game day off!) so... there goes your roster flexibility when I HAVE to keep an extra capable RFer around anyway. Also it makes putting rosters together complicated esp if I had more starting caliber two way players :/.
Why don’t you DH him so you don’t lose that defense in the field when he’s pitchibg
@@wzac1234 He might be playing as an NL team.
@@wzac1234 not quite but yeah I have a deal like that where my top prospect- also a RFer thankfully- comes in when he pitches so the production is supplemented for the most part luckily- but that's not always gonna be the case.
Yeah that "Sabermetrics make my favorite players look worse" part, you showed me who Jeff Mathis was, you showed me who Tim Locastro was and I adore both of those players because of you.
Sabermetrics have completely altered the swings of the hitters, and to a lesser extent the pitching of the pitchers. They’re doing what their agents have told them gets them the biggest contract, rather than what their coaches and managers need them to do.
"Mike Trout is built for WAR"
*US Military enters chat*
Im curious as to why you say that Ben Zobrist also "popularized" WAR?
I feel like he also could be seen as someone who was a little over looked because of his great versatility being overlooked.
Literally in the sense that he peaked right as WAR was first developed and being talked about, so proponents of WAR were able to point to Zobrist and say "WAR captures his greatness in a way that traditional stats overlook"
Another guy who predates WAR but was talked about by Bill James using the same logic was Craig Biggio. Not the best at anything, but not bad at anything either and very good at little things that were frequently overlooked. Had he come about a generation later, he'd be in the same conversation as Zobrist and Trout.
Look at Bailey, what a beautiful young boi
He’s 25.
@@metalhammerm6903 ok
@@metalhammerm6903 uh, exactly...?
I believe Batting Average IS more important than On-Base Percentage. Yes, OBP correlates better with run production, but the causality flows the WRONG way. When a guy is fantastic at creating runs, pitchers avoid throwing to him. This means his OBP goes up, and his batting average goes down. Absent that effect, however, how could anyone argue that it is more important to get a walk with a runner at 2nd then to get a hit? A guy like Don Mattingly, in his prime, was SO valuable and drove in so many runs, because he could AVOID getting mere walks when there were runners on base. That's right: when he drove in 145 RBI it was because he was getting hits instead of walks. That makes him MORE valuable, the way a closer contribute more value per inning pitch than a starter.
‘Making your favourite player look worse’ - sabremetrics could make a Jeter, Ichiro or Gwynn look a bit eh. Even Griffey Jr to a certain extent (though I don’t believe that)
Albert Pujols aged this season like fine wine
Hot Take: Percentages and rates of what type of hit (as well as walks and maybe RBI rates) should be given as part of sabermetrics instead of having to do more "research" to find it. Basically, tell me what is the rate of plate appearances that Joey Votto gets a single or double in, or tell me the percentage of base hits that Billy Hamilton gets when he swings the bat over bunting. Something around those lines.
FB, if you had Ohtani on your team who would you choose to be the 'extra' player on the roster? A) A RH DH who mashes lefties to platoon with Ohtani B) Another starting pitcher for a 6 man rotation C) an additional bench player for a 5 man bench rather than 4. ...Or D) another relief pitcher for the bullpen. Thanks!
The thing about OPS that bugs me is that it doesn't include SBs, which it should IMO. It's all about seeing how efficient a batter is, and stealing a bag should count towards the bases/ab part (while failing should count against it).
Well its more of a stat based solely on contributions from batting so I dont think baserunning should be calculated unless it can also include guys who score from second on a signle into that as well
this is what oWAR is for. It includes batting, baserunning, double play avoidance and I believe also the positional adjustment, but not fielding like regular bWAR.
@@dkroll92 WAR has its own issues, and could use with some updating as well
"Mike Trout was made for WAR!"
Excuse me, good sir... I have it on good authority that Mike Trout was made for LOVE!
Trout's only weakness is durability, and it's gonna stop him from catching Mays and such longterm in WAR.
Would Picasso have made all those great paintings if paint didn't spread on canvas like it does? The medium was built for him
Overall, yes, OBP is more important. But if I'm watching a game and there are two outs with a runner in scoring position, AVG it's probably the most important stat.
I love this format, I really appreciate getting to hear a more informal version of Bailey speak in a more face-to-face type way.
Love the break down of using saber to prop up maybe forgotten players vs tearing ppl down! Perfect example of how the eye test can be both rose colored and blind sometimes
"Before Trout was, WAR waited for him."
Love the versatility question. I think about this often with Tony Phillips (as one does). Every time he filled in in the outfield, his positional adjustment would take a hit. But it also means his team didn't have to employ a shitty extra outfielder.
Analytics are very agnostic to how you win in the end. If by changing a little the game you make it more likely to win when you play an aesthetically pleasing game, then analytics will tell you to do just that.
I think changes, either to the rules or the ball or whatever, that would incentivize balls in play would be better from a spectator's point of view.
Home runs are nice and all but they would be even more cool if they'd be rarer. Also, since OBP is (rightly) so valued by ball clubs, having a lot of guys on base and fewer home runs would mean potentially more 2,3 or 4 runs homeruns that are really cool and hype from a spectator's point of view.
Also, I think that if the ball was deadened they'd be less of an incentive to swing (since when HRs are less likely, trying for a walk is better) and guys would strike out less and leave less players on base. With more people on base, swinging for contact and putting the ball in play becomes then better than walking (you can score from second on a single as you said) which makes AVG a better stat. So yeah. I think it makes sense to incentivize balls in play.
Hey, a walk can score a runner from second. If you got Tim Locastro on second, and ball four just so happens to be a wild pitch when he takes off, boom.
More content like this!!! Love it
I think OPS is a wonderful shorthand for a players offensive capabilities because it matches a grading scale almost perfectly. .750 is about average. 950, is an A level, .600 is abysmal D-. It doesn’t capture everything, but it’s good quick glance at the quality of offense from a player.
My favorite foolish bailey content is any foolish baseball content. Loved the video would like to see another one :)
Love this content. Would like to see more like it! Also I would love to see a baseball bits on Andruw Jones, similar to the most recent one you did about Yadier Molina. I would love to hear you breakdown your reasons why you think he should, or should not be in the hall of fame. Either way it’s a controversial subject that I think is deserving of your analysis. I would love to see that, and I think many others would as well
I swear watching people argue about Baseball statistics is often more interesting then actually watching a Baseball game
I love this format. It’s like smart baseball popcorn. It’s perfect for having on in the background while I do house chores and want to rev up my brain but don’t want to listen to shouting talking heads on the news or a podcast that will like *really* make me think about stuff.
Plus, it’s an approachable way for people like me to interact with your content if we want to. Maybe I have a hot take in me for next time!
-sincerely, a patreon supporter who has never commented on one of your videos before
thanks!
Yeah, but even within the scope of OBP, I think there is more than just a simple argument there. My question to those out there is who would you rather sign given that these two players are the same age and play the same position?...
A guy who hit .280 and had a .350 OBP or the guy who hit .220 with a .365 OBP? Does this not have a pretty profound impact on RBI's, which is arguably the most important offensive stat there is towards winning baseball games?
I totally get what you're saying - in general I also feel like BA should be valued way more than walks because of the ability to get RBIs. But as for your question, I just need more information xD
For example:
1) How consistent are both of them? (Okay, let's say both of them are gonna produce these stats and I know it)
2) How fast are they? (compared to each other)
3) If the second dude walks more often, he probably *does* get some contact, right? I'm not sure if he can consistently get that many walks if he can't hit pitches in the zone, so he has to have some skill with the bat to foul off pitches in the zone and force balls to walk.
4) How is *my* batting lineup looking? What do I need? What do I have?
@@boosteddrimmsu low average high OBP guys tend not to be contact hitters at all. Real players with numbers like that are your Joey Gallos and Carlos Penas... or Rob Deers for an older example. Where they do succeed is that they tend to hit for power. In this scneario, what you'd really want to look at is how their slugging numbers compare. If you have that, even without an exact breakdown of how they're getting on base, you can figure out their wOBA almost exactly... wOBA being useful, of course, because it uses linear weights which scale outcomes to their run scoring value.
In this case, assuming both players had the exact same slugging percentage - let's say .450, which is realistic for a .280 contact hitter as well as a .220 three true outcomes guy. In that case, the low average/OBP high guy is going to produce about 1.025x as many runs over a given period of time as the other guy. Which really isn't all that much, but adds up over the course of a season. (I can explain the math in more detail)
Albert Pujols aged naturally
*need the real birth certificate
not what I meant
Incredible thumbnail king
really liked this style of video bailey, would love to see more in the future
The format was great. "I want to throw up in my mouth after reading [your comment]" is legendary.
13:24 sums up everything I like about public baseball / sports analytics, made me "aaaawwwww" inside
I saw a video showing that Pujols aging is almost exactly in line with someone 2 years older than him. It was not at all unheard of for international players to lie about they're age when he came in.
I could listen to that silky smooth voice for days. More videos like this please
I watched a mariners game where the entire opposing team was shifted from the bunt line.
Mariners were 8th in the lineup with no outs and 1 man on base while 5 down.
No bunts to get on base with a near guarantee for success.
Two outs later we got to the top of our line up, we loaded bases and lost the game on a pop-up.
This is where three true outcomes fail.
I love Stan Smiths can spot a great worn in pair from a mile. I’m on my 5th pair myself and I can’t wait to wear them for the rest of my life.
this should definitely be a regular series
A hit and a walk are not equal. A hit is a superior outcome. A walk is inherently passive and subjects the batter to outside forces such as poor ball/strike calls, and the catcher’s framing abilities. Optimizing a hitting approach for reaching base via the hit removes those outcomes. It does expose you to poor fair/foul calls but those outcomes are rare. Therefore if Joey Votto and Tim Anderson have the same OBP I would argue that Tim Anderson is a more valuable hitter due to his on-base event composition. (What skill is more sustainable is a different argument.)
My personal sabermetric hot take is that weighted stats (everything with a +) should ALWAYS take defensive position into account, so the average 1B gets the same as the average C, average RF, etc.
My hot take for baseball in general is that foul outs are stupid and no ball hit foul should be in play for the batter OR the fielder under any circumstances
@@dfp_01 you're right and more people should say this
That was a fun format, wouldn't mind another one
Great format. Love the dovetail between bird app and RUclips. Fun.
This was fun! You do a great job with commentary from suggestions
Video idea. The 1993 Toronto Blue Jays where Olerud was hitting. 400 in August.
this is really cool. I'm a budding baseball nerd and I need more sabermetrics content
Like ur jersey can u make a soccer channel. Love to see someone finally be able to bring stats to soccer. Like analyzing how valuable haaland actually was since city really didn’t score all that many more goals
Total bases + stolen bases + walks is the best overall stat to measure hitter prowess
Isn't the point of baseball to go around the diamond and score? So whatever measures that is the purest way of saying how good at offense you are
Total bases is incomplete, since it ignores stolen bases and walks. I propose we add those to the stat to get true total bases, TTB
Top ten all time:
1. Barry Bonds 9048 (should be in HOF)
2. Henry Aaron 8498
3. Rickey henderson 8184
4. Ty Cobb 8000
5. Babe Ruth 7978
6. Willie Mays 7868
7. Stan Musial 7811
8. Carl yastrzemski 7552
9. Pete Rose 7516 (should be in HOF)
10. Alex Rodriquez 7480
Rickey henderson is specially helped by TTB, without it he's like 20th
ERA isn’t a good measure for relievers. If a closer gives up a run while up by 2 in the ninth it doesn’t matter, but if a starter does so in the 4th it actually does.
IKF is undervalued and his defensive versatility is incredible
Especially cuz they replaced him with a stones-for-hands Corey Seager. But hey Mike Young also had stones-for-hands but he was a serviceable shortstop. Just don't think he and his 35m was a large enough upgrade to IKF.
Derrek Lee baseball bits. It’s random and i need it.