I wore my Foolish Baseball hat running errands and a cashier at CVS said “is that a foolish baseball hat? I made fun of him on Twitter and he blocked me” so I just laughed and said “that’s hilarious”
The military shouldve developed and implemented a WAR type stat long ago. I yearn to know how much value Ted Williams added over a replacement level soldier.
Growing up he was my brother's favorite pitcher. So I was aware of him and thought he was better than he was (he had some phenomenal seasons). I thought Sabermetrics was his way of teaching baseball or something for at least a year.
After a major injury, like TJ, ACL, MCL, some of the should stuff, if the player will spend the entire time using it they should be allowed to take HGH. That's my hot take
Well, i saw a guy commenting on Ohtani vid "it's not fair to compare Vlad with Ohtani by total WAR, since WAR pitching is easier to get than batting." Blown my mind. So I asked, "Damn. I wonder why other batters didnt figure this out and also pitch like Ohtani does???" Didnt get the reply though, what a shame.
“The single can score the runner from second which the walk can’t do” lowkey that’s a great argument for batting avg being more important than we let in nowadays
Not really cuz its super conditional. A home run is a run every-time. A single needs multiple things to happen before it or after it to hold any real weight in a game. Look at arraez and schwarber. Identical OPS. Both hit leadoff. Ones a contact hitter and ones a power hitter. Schwarber produces wayyyy more runs and his WPA is far higher. Power will always be king
@@ruloez5587 his point is that singles are better than walks which is why batting average is important. Nobody reasonably questions if a single is better than a home run.
I know the value is likely negligible but I hope that Hawkeye allows the opportunity to create a "Stretch metric" for 1st basemen. The idea that baseball is truly a game of inches could be determined by how many outs a 1B saves by simply stretching better than others. I also think this might be where 1B finally accrue their ultimate defensive value.
I’ve played first and it is super important on stretching and also trust. If you can stretch far forward or to the side. Especially side to side where you can’t/or won’t be able to scoop. Especially when you have a worse infield.
That one lamenting the aesthetic consequences of sabermetrics while still acknowledging it's superiority is 100% right, I just think I would've worded it as "The Sabermetrics revolution and it's consequences have been a disaster for the human race."
I'm not one for overemotional hot takes, so I really appreciate the nuance you bring in discussing and considering each one. I'd love to see another if you're in the mood!
True. Luck is an under appreciated element in all sports, honestly. But baseball is tailor made for luck, whether it good or bad. Just look at the MLB playoffs each year. It’s truly the only professional sport where all you need to do is make the dance, and whoever gets the hottest wins a world championship.
The Ohtani WAR argument is strange because if he keeps his pace for the last quarter of the season he’ll finish with 10.8 RWar which would be the 20th best season ever. Now is not the best season ever in terms of WAR, but it’s in the conversation
Yeah I feel people are paying more attention to the hitting overall but his pitching really caught up. He's been doing very well the last two months. It's unreal.
Your pujols steroid era argument was great. I could never quite make sense of his steep decline until you just helped me figure it out. Go cards! We miss ya big Al
As an Australian who has always enjoyed cricket I honestly found myself adoring baseball and found sabermetrics really interesting. Honestly I wish cricket applied these principles particularly to the T20 format which I feel is the most comparable to baseball.
They sort of do. Lots of interest placed on strikes rates against boundaries these days. Someone who has 18 off 12 balls with three 4s and a 6 has wasted eight balls for example.
@@ahogg5960 I was also thinking about fielding and what makes for good "defensive" fielding. Also stuff with hitting and pitching in baseball could kind be applied to cricket as well.
I’ve always felt that when it comes to sabermetrics; they’re so awesome because they give love to some guys who previously didn’t, but also it makes me sad because I look back on guys like Ichiro, my favorite player ever, and it makes me want to add an asterisk to his success. But then I remember the great Jon Bois who said “who cares?”
There’s no asterisk to Ichiro. WAR was friendly to him thanks to his defense and baserunning. He had a whopping 9.2 in 2004. 60 total WAR despite starting at age 27. Could have easily had 80-90 WAR if he started between 19 to 21 years old. He was an incredible player.
@@LorianandLothric WAR is friendly thanks to the defense and baserunning but his hitting isn’t valued that highly because of how often his batted balls stayed in the infield, and his low Slugging % for a corner outfielder. But I simply don’t care about his “inefficient hitting” because he’s cool and infield hits are fun.
@@jarrodschulz9611 That still doesn’t mean there’s an asterisk. There’s more to a player than slugging. He also rarely grounded into double plays, which helped his WAR.
you really don't need to dive into sabermetrics to appreciate Ichiro, and doing so is overanalyzing. 200+ hits for 10 straight years including his age 36 season is historically great, even if he didn't walk much and had no power outside of BP.
@@niceguy909 That’s exactly what I’m saying. I love using sabermetrics to find out cool stuff about niche players but I try to never use them to nitpick players that are really good because that’s never any fun.
My hot take: obp(and all the sabermetrics based on it) is inherantly biased against contact hitters because of an old statistic: errors. Reaching on error should absolutely count positively towards your obs rather than negatively impacting average and obp. If the error is a mistake that the batter supposedly contributed nothing to, then you could extend that same logic to walks or hpb, but that's obviously not the case. Making contact and having speed absolutely contributes to reaching on more errors.
id agree but i dont think it would be enough to make a severe impact in a players obp. its not happening to them like 20 times a year so the difference would be really slim.
I’m not sure that there are enough batters reaching on an error enough times per season to see any serious increase in OBP if they were counted toward it. Like, I was trying to think of guys who would benefit the most from something like this. I came up with Luis Arraez, he’s got a contact hitter sort of thing going on. I counted 5 times he reached on an error in 2022. I don’t think that’s moving the needle on his OBP much.
Hot take: peak production/WAR should be valued more highly than bulk WAR/stat accumulation when considering HOF cases. Also I love this video format and would like to see more hot take vids like this, especially if they can be produced on a bi-weekly basis in between other videos
Hot take 1: peak production is overvalued when considering HOF cases these days. Hot take 2: if peak production advocates believed what they were selling, Ralph Kiner would be their patron saint and not considered a borderline HOFer.
This isn’t really a hot take, as JAWS already balances peak vs bulk WAR. So yeah, not a terrible thought you had there! :] en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaffe_Wins_Above_Replacement_Score
@@JosephGualtieri Ralph Kiner ranks 9th on the left field JAWS leaderboard... which is pretty good. The only reason he's a borderline HOFer is because he fell off so fast. If he could've put up the kind of production he did over his last 2-3 years for another 3-4, he ends up hitting a lot of the counting milestones - 2K hits, 500 homers, etc, which would make him seem like a much more solid case I also can't think of any contemporary players who had such a great but short peak as Kiner and then stopped playing entirely. The closest would be someone like Grady Sizemore, but he wasn't as good as Kiner. Also noteworthy that basically every player in this category didn't retire under normal circumstances, they were pretty much all forced out due to injuries.
@@dkroll92 Kiner played 10 years, which is the minimum required for induction. He won a HR title in 7 of those years. If you believe peak production is more important than compiling totals, you have to consider him one of the best players ever. How many other players won HR titles in 70% of their seasons?
The pursuit of efficiency has taken away the speed tool from players, so really it's just a 4 tool player with some peripheral athleticism yo want nowadays, rather than dynamic, disruptive players. I feel like baserunning as a whole is being devalued, which is such a shame because the footraces are what make baseball exciting
The fact that saber metrics has revealed strategies that make baseball less exciting to watch...is the best proof there is that baseball needs to be changed. Subtly! Nothing crazy! But I feel like it's the impetus to change the ball to make it less energetic, or to raise the seams so it slows down more (and moves more) in flight. Maybe push the mound back as well. Possibly change up the balk rules so it's easier for runners to get a good jump (put down the pitchforks! It will make sense if you just think it through!) I reject the notion of restricting strategies though (ie., getting ride of the shift). Give the players *more* options and make the task *more* difficult so it's hard to stop the offense. Don't make the game *easier* and then *restrict* choices. That only leads to anger, and anger leads to hate, and hate leads to..... I dunno, Ichiro will be sad folks. Don't let it happen!
I love everything that you said. I would like to add that keeping the shift in the game encourages hitters to learn to put the ball in different places. The shift never could keep down players like Tony Gwynn and Joey Voto who know how to hit the ball in opposite field when they have to. Allowing defenses to keep the shift encourages players to learn to contact hit. We should also consider shortening the base paths to give a higher average to players who put the ball in play and sprint to first base
What would you think if we had a baseball Diamond where the paths to first base and home plate were shorter than the paths to second and third base? Sure, the diamond would be a weird shape, but more players would be willing to try to get hits out of ground balls and you might even successfully resurrect a stolen home plate.
@@metalhammerm6903 in my head that looks super goofy, but I do like the logic. I feel the big reason it may work is it would pull the corners up which might leave a little more space for hits to land in short left/right. But here’s the real blasphemy…how about just having 7 on the field? 2 outfield and 3 infield. That should drive BABIP through the roof. Plus, bonus, even just a threat to steal would have an effect. Suddenly the middle infielder would have to decide between being ready to cover the bag on a steal, or play into whatever shift is required for this batter.
@@GhostOfLorelei they have 7s rugby, why not try out 7s baseball? i’d definitely be interested in seeing how a test league for something like this would go
Disagree to a certain extent. I think its the commissioner and MLB's job to make the game aesthetically pleasing to watch, however Manfred is going at it very incorrectly by over correcting on the fly. The NBA changed the defense to open up offense because there were series like the late 90s Knicks-Heat which were overly physical and ended up with 67-58 scores with tons of bricks. The average fan would rather watch high scoring games. This is also why I would ban the shift. I would rather watch a lefty get a base hit than a 2nd baseman become a softball outfielder and throw him out.
4:13 I created a stat called BRPA (bases plus runs per plate appearance: [Total bases via hits + walks + HBP + reaches on error + RBI] / PA) that is a lot like OPS except the common denominator it uses is plate appearances and it factors in RBI. Plus then you get an almost reverse stat for pitchers which I called BRBF (bases plus runs per batter faced)
(Speaking of Mattingly as a great example) Mattingly is the player that exemplifies how stupid WAR is. He added more defensively to the mid-80s Yankees than any player. But WAR makes his defense look like a liability, because it couldn't measure that he turned so many errors and infield hits into outs. Instead, it sees him as a first-baseman and says, "meh."
Batting average isn't just important in terms of on base percentage - it's also important because a hit can score a run where a walk can't. If someone has a terrible batting average but a great OBP, that guy is worse with a man on second or third than a guy with the same OBP but a better batting average. If you get a hit, there's also always the possibility someone screws up in the field and lets you take an extra base, so I'd argue hits are actually far superior to walks. Sluggers with terrible batting averages also are more likely to strike out which makes them even worse with men in scoring position. A guy with a high BA is more likely to put the ball in play so they can at least advance runners or score a guy from third without even getting the hit.
i would agree with u but thats super situational. in a 162 game season. a low average, high obp high slugging guy is gonna produce more runs then a high average high obp low slugging guy. power is a game changer. literally. entire games, series, seasons are changed by extra base hits. singles are good, but it takes so much before them and after them to hold any value. schwarber for example is more likely to impact a game then say luis arraez. the ability to walk replace batting average in a player’s ops. and slugging will always produce more runs. always. especially with hits being so scarce in mlb.
I can see both sides where having a high obp is better long term but having a higher average is better situationally most likely. I am one of those fans that still values traditional stats like average for sure, a player hitting .220 with a .400 obp is way different than a guy hitting .280 with a .400 obp. I also value bat on ball skills and contact way more than pure slugging which is the opposite of what the metrics want. I'll take a player that can put the ball in play over a guy that is a three true outcomes hitter.
Yeah that "Sabermetrics make my favorite players look worse" part, you showed me who Jeff Mathis was, you showed me who Tim Locastro was and I adore both of those players because of you.
My sabermetric hot take is that sabermetrics says to swing for the gaps, not the fences. Not every athlete has the raw power to put fly balls over the fence, and line drives are good for both OBP and SLG.
I agree with the batting average one. Ever since Moneyball came out, there has been an obsession with OBP as if one point of OBP is the same as one point of BA, which is not true. BA is not an extension of OBP, and if anything it is the other way around. Walks are important, but not nearly as valuable as hits.
Love the break down of using saber to prop up maybe forgotten players vs tearing ppl down! Perfect example of how the eye test can be both rose colored and blind sometimes
I love this format. It’s like smart baseball popcorn. It’s perfect for having on in the background while I do house chores and want to rev up my brain but don’t want to listen to shouting talking heads on the news or a podcast that will like *really* make me think about stuff. Plus, it’s an approachable way for people like me to interact with your content if we want to. Maybe I have a hot take in me for next time! -sincerely, a patreon supporter who has never commented on one of your videos before
This video was good. Glad you decided to do this when you realize baseball bits was coming out later than expected. Also idk if you've heard this or not, or whether you'll care, but releasing videos on wednesday yields the best results. So maybe aiming to drop Bits on Wednesday would benefits. Even if you're here for the long terms fans, improving long term viability of this as a job would benefit us too.
The thing about OPS that bugs me is that it doesn't include SBs, which it should IMO. It's all about seeing how efficient a batter is, and stealing a bag should count towards the bases/ab part (while failing should count against it).
Well its more of a stat based solely on contributions from batting so I dont think baserunning should be calculated unless it can also include guys who score from second on a signle into that as well
this is what oWAR is for. It includes batting, baserunning, double play avoidance and I believe also the positional adjustment, but not fielding like regular bWAR.
Great video, love that you give players a positive spin with sabremetrics rather than tearing them down. Having said that, the mustache is at about -5 UZR right now
‘Making your favourite player look worse’ - sabremetrics could make a Jeter, Ichiro or Gwynn look a bit eh. Even Griffey Jr to a certain extent (though I don’t believe that)
I don't really know what to say but I just want to tell you that I appreciate your content, your sense of humor, and your videos are really enjoyable and interesting
Love this content. Would like to see more like it! Also I would love to see a baseball bits on Andruw Jones, similar to the most recent one you did about Yadier Molina. I would love to hear you breakdown your reasons why you think he should, or should not be in the hall of fame. Either way it’s a controversial subject that I think is deserving of your analysis. I would love to see that, and I think many others would as well
Analytics are very agnostic to how you win in the end. If by changing a little the game you make it more likely to win when you play an aesthetically pleasing game, then analytics will tell you to do just that. I think changes, either to the rules or the ball or whatever, that would incentivize balls in play would be better from a spectator's point of view. Home runs are nice and all but they would be even more cool if they'd be rarer. Also, since OBP is (rightly) so valued by ball clubs, having a lot of guys on base and fewer home runs would mean potentially more 2,3 or 4 runs homeruns that are really cool and hype from a spectator's point of view. Also, I think that if the ball was deadened they'd be less of an incentive to swing (since when HRs are less likely, trying for a walk is better) and guys would strike out less and leave less players on base. With more people on base, swinging for contact and putting the ball in play becomes then better than walking (you can score from second on a single as you said) which makes AVG a better stat. So yeah. I think it makes sense to incentivize balls in play.
Here's the thing about stats, they attempt to use a proxy of something measurable in place of how good a player is. Over time, as they are adopted by those who dole out contracts, people who perform better on those measures than their actual skill will become overrepresented and the stats will become less useful over time. For example, the best players tend to have higher batting averages. So they hire players who have higher averages, even if they aren't getting walks. Then, they realized that OBP accounts for those players too, so more and more players who walk and hit less started coming in. Then, OPS became more popular because walks were not as productive as hits and OPS accounts for productivity. So more and more 3 true outcome players came in. And if you have too many of those, they can't string together hits and win close games or beat top pitchers. As the saying goes, all models are wrong. Some, however, are useful.
Love the versatility question. I think about this often with Tony Phillips (as one does). Every time he filled in in the outfield, his positional adjustment would take a hit. But it also means his team didn't have to employ a shitty extra outfielder.
Especially cuz they replaced him with a stones-for-hands Corey Seager. But hey Mike Young also had stones-for-hands but he was a serviceable shortstop. Just don't think he and his 35m was a large enough upgrade to IKF.
Video idea. I know it's probably asked a lot and people have probably done it, but maybe do a video series about a stat/saber metric stat and says ways it's used well or not well
Playing OOTP I kinda' hate two way players. I mean I currently have one AWESOME right fielder that starts so I have one less pitcher I need to put on my roster! On the low side when he starts he has to be replaced in the lineup about half the games of the season (even with a 6-man roster- one being a 'bullpen game'- he needs the day before and day after game day off!) so... there goes your roster flexibility when I HAVE to keep an extra capable RFer around anyway. Also it makes putting rosters together complicated esp if I had more starting caliber two way players :/.
@@wzac1234 not quite but yeah I have a deal like that where my top prospect- also a RFer thankfully- comes in when he pitches so the production is supplemented for the most part luckily- but that's not always gonna be the case.
Let's do it again! I got so sucked up in trying to formulate a meaningful hot take that I missed the assignment window. I'm chomping at the bit here, looking to argue with other baseball nerds about why my hot take is the best one
“Mike Trout is built for WAR.” A sentence that would take on a very different meaning in a different type of draft.
Being that he is built like a house that statement is most likely true as wel
He already looks like a jarhead lol
Uncle Sam wants FISH (Trout)!
Mike Trout is built for whatever WAR that supports your argument
Trouts 6’3, 230 pounds and has a huge chest and tree trunk legs. The guy looks like Steve after he got the super soldier serum.
I wore my Foolish Baseball hat running errands and a cashier at CVS said “is that a foolish baseball hat? I made fun of him on Twitter and he blocked me” so I just laughed and said “that’s hilarious”
incredible. can i share this comment on Twitter? the cashier won't see it.
@@FoolishBailey 💀💀💀
Oh he is a blocker? Dissapointing.
@@readilium3432 ?????
I've only blocked like 30 people on Twitter. Only if they're unbelievably rude or annoying, or they snitch tag.
Imagine Ted Williams WAR if he didn’t fight in them too.
The military shouldve developed and implemented a WAR type stat long ago. I yearn to know how much value Ted Williams added over a replacement level soldier.
Apparently he was a good pilot, so i imagine his WAR would be huge in both senses
You should do a video explaining every single sabermetric stat imaginable
it would be 2 hours long and i would watch every second of it
no 100%
They're a few years old but his OOTP tutorials cover a lot of them
Yes please
Yes please
Sabermetrics should only be unique/obscure stats about Bret Saberhagen.
Growing up he was my brother's favorite pitcher. So I was aware of him and thought he was better than he was (he had some phenomenal seasons). I thought Sabermetrics was his way of teaching baseball or something for at least a year.
Dude is a cheat code in the show
Hall of Stats finds him to be a deserving Hall of Famer who hasn’t been inducted
SaberBretrics
Framing stats need to be Angel Hernandez adjusted, just like Coors Field is for other stats.
That first guy's take was horrible
Eww i bet he has a series about the history of professional baseball in Tampa Bay Florida- I would never watch him 😑
Mike Trout should try eating a healthy and balanced breakfast. Maybe then he’d be the GOAT
After a major injury, like TJ, ACL, MCL, some of the should stuff, if the player will spend the entire time using it they should be allowed to take HGH.
That's my hot take
He needs some milk
thank god i needed something to watch while eating food
Well, i saw a guy commenting on Ohtani vid "it's not fair to compare Vlad with Ohtani by total WAR, since WAR pitching is easier to get than batting."
Blown my mind.
So I asked, "Damn. I wonder why other batters didnt figure this out and also pitch like Ohtani does???"
Didnt get the reply though, what a shame.
Hahaha what about Coors lol. I would rather hit there than pitch...
“The single can score the runner from second which the walk can’t do” lowkey that’s a great argument for batting avg being more important than we let in nowadays
Not really cuz its super conditional. A home run is a run every-time. A single needs multiple things to happen before it or after it to hold any real weight in a game. Look at arraez and schwarber. Identical OPS. Both hit leadoff. Ones a contact hitter and ones a power hitter. Schwarber produces wayyyy more runs and his WPA is far higher. Power will always be king
@@ruloez5587 his point is that singles are better than walks which is why batting average is important. Nobody reasonably questions if a single is better than a home run.
Mike Trout's traditional stats are actually pretty good, too.
Ah yes, the floor here is made out of floor
I know the value is likely negligible but I hope that Hawkeye allows the opportunity to create a "Stretch metric" for 1st basemen. The idea that baseball is truly a game of inches could be determined by how many outs a 1B saves by simply stretching better than others. I also think this might be where 1B finally accrue their ultimate defensive value.
I hope this comes to be. The only thing I dislike about WAR is how much it buries the average 1B/DH type compared to other positions
Ji Man Choi would dominate this stat 😂
I’ve played first and it is super important on stretching and also trust. If you can stretch far forward or to the side. Especially side to side where you can’t/or won’t be able to scoop. Especially when you have a worse infield.
You could probably do that by measuring the "catch probability" of infielder throws somehow.
the only flaw with that stat is that first basemen who have accurate infielders who dont make bad throws wont have to stretch much
That one lamenting the aesthetic consequences of sabermetrics while still acknowledging it's superiority is 100% right, I just think I would've worded it as "The Sabermetrics revolution and it's consequences have been a disaster for the human race."
"Industrialized Baseball and Its Future"
this format was dope, like a baseball nerd's version of Fantano's "Let's Argue"
Got that vibe right from the beginning
I'm still pissed at Bailey for giving Rod Barajas a "NOT GOOD"
I was literally binging those all day yesterday. A welcome video in my sub box
i was literally just thinking this
@aaa damn you're soooo mad 😂😂😂😂
I'm not one for overemotional hot takes, so I really appreciate the nuance you bring in discussing and considering each one. I'd love to see another if you're in the mood!
ready for the fantano-esque weekly LETS ARGUE from foolish bailey
Hot take: Luck is an under appreciated element in baseball.
that’s why barrel % is such a huge stat. Yankees used it to reason their trades for Tauchman and Voit and Urshela back in the day.
True. Luck is an under appreciated element in all sports, honestly. But baseball is tailor made for luck, whether it good or bad. Just look at the MLB playoffs each year. It’s truly the only professional sport where all you need to do is make the dance, and whoever gets the hottest wins a world championship.
@@conbitches obviously not a hockey fan eh? Seeding is almost irrelevant in the NHL playoffs
Luck is the main reason I don't like expanded playoffs.
@@davidrafferty2491 Hockey is another good example, yes. Hence my note about luck being prevalent in almost all sports.
The Ohtani WAR argument is strange because if he keeps his pace for the last quarter of the season he’ll finish with 10.8 RWar which would be the 20th best season ever. Now is not the best season ever in terms of WAR, but it’s in the conversation
Yeah I feel people are paying more attention to the hitting overall but his pitching really caught up. He's been doing very well the last two months. It's unreal.
I like the format, and think you should totally do it again!
Grow the mustache Bailey. Ya gotta do it
He needs a Nestor 'Stache
Your pujols steroid era argument was great. I could never quite make sense of his steep decline until you just helped me figure it out. Go cards! We miss ya big Al
He may be older than he claims too
As an Australian who has always enjoyed cricket I honestly found myself adoring baseball and found sabermetrics really interesting. Honestly I wish cricket applied these principles particularly to the T20 format which I feel is the most comparable to baseball.
They sort of do. Lots of interest placed on strikes rates against boundaries these days.
Someone who has 18 off 12 balls with three 4s and a 6 has wasted eight balls for example.
@@ahogg5960 I was also thinking about fielding and what makes for good "defensive" fielding. Also stuff with hitting and pitching in baseball could kind be applied to cricket as well.
I’ve always felt that when it comes to sabermetrics; they’re so awesome because they give love to some guys who previously didn’t, but also it makes me sad because I look back on guys like Ichiro, my favorite player ever, and it makes me want to add an asterisk to his success. But then I remember the great Jon Bois who said “who cares?”
There’s no asterisk to Ichiro. WAR was friendly to him thanks to his defense and baserunning. He had a whopping 9.2 in 2004. 60 total WAR despite starting at age 27. Could have easily had 80-90 WAR if he started between 19 to 21 years old. He was an incredible player.
@@LorianandLothric WAR is friendly thanks to the defense and baserunning but his hitting isn’t valued that highly because of how often his batted balls stayed in the infield, and his low Slugging % for a corner outfielder. But I simply don’t care about his “inefficient hitting” because he’s cool and infield hits are fun.
@@jarrodschulz9611 That still doesn’t mean there’s an asterisk. There’s more to a player than slugging. He also rarely grounded into double plays, which helped his WAR.
you really don't need to dive into sabermetrics to appreciate Ichiro, and doing so is overanalyzing. 200+ hits for 10 straight years including his age 36 season is historically great, even if he didn't walk much and had no power outside of BP.
@@niceguy909 That’s exactly what I’m saying. I love using sabermetrics to find out cool stuff about niche players but I try to never use them to nitpick players that are really good because that’s never any fun.
My hot take: obp(and all the sabermetrics based on it) is inherantly biased against contact hitters because of an old statistic: errors. Reaching on error should absolutely count positively towards your obs rather than negatively impacting average and obp. If the error is a mistake that the batter supposedly contributed nothing to, then you could extend that same logic to walks or hpb, but that's obviously not the case. Making contact and having speed absolutely contributes to reaching on more errors.
I'd be interested in seeing which batters generate the most errors by the defense, for sure.
@@katabat3837 my guess is the speedy guys that got a lot of infield hits.
id agree but i dont think it would be enough to make a severe impact in a players obp. its not happening to them like 20 times a year so the difference would be really slim.
I’m not sure that there are enough batters reaching on an error enough times per season to see any serious increase in OBP if they were counted toward it.
Like, I was trying to think of guys who would benefit the most from something like this. I came up with Luis Arraez, he’s got a contact hitter sort of thing going on. I counted 5 times he reached on an error in 2022. I don’t think that’s moving the needle on his OBP much.
How does reaching on an error negatively impact your average and obp? It doesn’t effect it at all, neither positively or negatively.
Hot take: peak production/WAR should be valued more highly than bulk WAR/stat accumulation when considering HOF cases.
Also I love this video format and would like to see more hot take vids like this, especially if they can be produced on a bi-weekly basis in between other videos
Hot take 1: peak production is overvalued when considering HOF cases these days.
Hot take 2: if peak production advocates believed what they were selling, Ralph Kiner would be their patron saint and not considered a borderline HOFer.
This isn’t really a hot take, as JAWS already balances peak vs bulk WAR. So yeah, not a terrible thought you had there! :]
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaffe_Wins_Above_Replacement_Score
@@aaronsaron Not everyone uses JAWS, and it’s an argument that extends outside of baseball, too. See: arguments about Frank Gore in the NFL:
@@JosephGualtieri Ralph Kiner ranks 9th on the left field JAWS leaderboard... which is pretty good. The only reason he's a borderline HOFer is because he fell off so fast. If he could've put up the kind of production he did over his last 2-3 years for another 3-4, he ends up hitting a lot of the counting milestones - 2K hits, 500 homers, etc, which would make him seem like a much more solid case
I also can't think of any contemporary players who had such a great but short peak as Kiner and then stopped playing entirely. The closest would be someone like Grady Sizemore, but he wasn't as good as Kiner. Also noteworthy that basically every player in this category didn't retire under normal circumstances, they were pretty much all forced out due to injuries.
@@dkroll92 Kiner played 10 years, which is the minimum required for induction. He won a HR title in 7 of those years. If you believe peak production is more important than compiling totals, you have to consider him one of the best players ever. How many other players won HR titles in 70% of their seasons?
Peripherals: for nerds & front office
Results: for awards & fan attraction
As a Tiger’s fan it was really nice to here Candelario in there. Such a dynamic player.
I was seriously mad that this video ended, wanted it to be twice as long. I love hot takes in general.
The pursuit of efficiency has taken away the speed tool from players, so really it's just a 4 tool player with some peripheral athleticism yo want nowadays, rather than dynamic, disruptive players. I feel like baserunning as a whole is being devalued, which is such a shame because the footraces are what make baseball exciting
Didn't realize exactly how dominant he was until I looked at his baseball reference page. The amount of bolds is insane.
Are u talking abt pujols?
His last two seasons are sad though, because of how many games he missed. Injuries are hurting his GOAT chances
They’re going to run out of pixels
If you really want to have fun, look at Barry bonds baseball reference page and just stare at it for 10 minutes. Life changing experience
@@default0467 or compare him to Babe Ruth
The fact that saber metrics has revealed strategies that make baseball less exciting to watch...is the best proof there is that baseball needs to be changed.
Subtly! Nothing crazy!
But I feel like it's the impetus to change the ball to make it less energetic, or to raise the seams so it slows down more (and moves more) in flight. Maybe push the mound back as well. Possibly change up the balk rules so it's easier for runners to get a good jump (put down the pitchforks! It will make sense if you just think it through!)
I reject the notion of restricting strategies though (ie., getting ride of the shift). Give the players *more* options and make the task *more* difficult so it's hard to stop the offense. Don't make the game *easier* and then *restrict* choices. That only leads to anger, and anger leads to hate, and hate leads to..... I dunno, Ichiro will be sad folks. Don't let it happen!
I love everything that you said.
I would like to add that keeping the shift in the game encourages hitters to learn to put the ball in different places. The shift never could keep down players like Tony Gwynn and Joey Voto who know how to hit the ball in opposite field when they have to. Allowing defenses to keep the shift encourages players to learn to contact hit. We should also consider shortening the base paths to give a higher average to players who put the ball in play and sprint to first base
What would you think if we had a baseball Diamond where the paths to first base and home plate were shorter than the paths to second and third base? Sure, the diamond would be a weird shape, but more players would be willing to try to get hits out of ground balls and you might even successfully resurrect a stolen home plate.
@@metalhammerm6903 in my head that looks super goofy, but I do like the logic. I feel the big reason it may work is it would pull the corners up which might leave a little more space for hits to land in short left/right.
But here’s the real blasphemy…how about just having 7 on the field? 2 outfield and 3 infield. That should drive BABIP through the roof. Plus, bonus, even just a threat to steal would have an effect. Suddenly the middle infielder would have to decide between being ready to cover the bag on a steal, or play into whatever shift is required for this batter.
@@GhostOfLorelei they have 7s rugby, why not try out 7s baseball? i’d definitely be interested in seeing how a test league for something like this would go
Disagree to a certain extent. I think its the commissioner and MLB's job to make the game aesthetically pleasing to watch, however Manfred is going at it very incorrectly by over correcting on the fly. The NBA changed the defense to open up offense because there were series like the late 90s Knicks-Heat which were overly physical and ended up with 67-58 scores with tons of bricks. The average fan would rather watch high scoring games. This is also why I would ban the shift. I would rather watch a lefty get a base hit than a 2nd baseman become a softball outfielder and throw him out.
This is Anthony Fantano's "Let's Argue" but for baseball, and I love it.
I know nothing about baseball but I still love watching
4:13 I created a stat called BRPA (bases plus runs per plate appearance: [Total bases via hits + walks + HBP + reaches on error + RBI] / PA) that is a lot like OPS except the common denominator it uses is plate appearances and it factors in RBI. Plus then you get an almost reverse stat for pitchers which I called BRBF (bases plus runs per batter faced)
Miggy just went deep!! My favorite player hit his 500th HR on my birthday. One of the best birthday presents
So glad he hit No. 500 this season.
"Mike Trout is built for WAR"
*US Military enters chat*
You should do a video explaining wrc+. When I learned about how it’s compute that’s when I really got a better grasp at sybermetrics.
Love the format. This could be a successful series for you a la Fantano's Let's Argue series.
I....agree!
I would like more of these. You kind of breaking down some arguments from both sides is pretty insightful to me.
Please do more of these videos! This is was great!
(Speaking of Mattingly as a great example) Mattingly is the player that exemplifies how stupid WAR is. He added more defensively to the mid-80s Yankees than any player. But WAR makes his defense look like a liability, because it couldn't measure that he turned so many errors and infield hits into outs. Instead, it sees him as a first-baseman and says, "meh."
Batting average isn't just important in terms of on base percentage - it's also important because a hit can score a run where a walk can't. If someone has a terrible batting average but a great OBP, that guy is worse with a man on second or third than a guy with the same OBP but a better batting average. If you get a hit, there's also always the possibility someone screws up in the field and lets you take an extra base, so I'd argue hits are actually far superior to walks.
Sluggers with terrible batting averages also are more likely to strike out which makes them even worse with men in scoring position. A guy with a high BA is more likely to put the ball in play so they can at least advance runners or score a guy from third without even getting the hit.
i would agree with u but thats super situational. in a 162 game season. a low average, high obp high slugging guy is gonna produce more runs then a high average high obp low slugging guy. power is a game changer. literally. entire games, series, seasons are changed by extra base hits. singles are good, but it takes so much before them and after them to hold any value. schwarber for example is more likely to impact a game then say luis arraez. the ability to walk replace batting average in a player’s ops. and slugging will always produce more runs. always. especially with hits being so scarce in mlb.
The only time a walk can score a run is during a bases loaded situation.
I can see both sides where having a high obp is better long term but having a higher average is better situationally most likely. I am one of those fans that still values traditional stats like average for sure, a player hitting .220 with a .400 obp is way different than a guy hitting .280 with a .400 obp. I also value bat on ball skills and contact way more than pure slugging which is the opposite of what the metrics want. I'll take a player that can put the ball in play over a guy that is a three true outcomes hitter.
Yeah that "Sabermetrics make my favorite players look worse" part, you showed me who Jeff Mathis was, you showed me who Tim Locastro was and I adore both of those players because of you.
My sabermetric hot take is that sabermetrics says to swing for the gaps, not the fences. Not every athlete has the raw power to put fly balls over the fence, and line drives are good for both OBP and SLG.
I agree with the batting average one. Ever since Moneyball came out, there has been an obsession with OBP as if one point of OBP is the same as one point of BA, which is not true. BA is not an extension of OBP, and if anything it is the other way around. Walks are important, but not nearly as valuable as hits.
I get annoyed when people overuse SABR stats, but even using old school metrics Trout is one of the best
Love the break down of using saber to prop up maybe forgotten players vs tearing ppl down! Perfect example of how the eye test can be both rose colored and blind sometimes
Trout's only weakness is durability, and it's gonna stop him from catching Mays and such longterm in WAR.
Would Picasso have made all those great paintings if paint didn't spread on canvas like it does? The medium was built for him
I love this format. It’s like smart baseball popcorn. It’s perfect for having on in the background while I do house chores and want to rev up my brain but don’t want to listen to shouting talking heads on the news or a podcast that will like *really* make me think about stuff.
Plus, it’s an approachable way for people like me to interact with your content if we want to. Maybe I have a hot take in me for next time!
-sincerely, a patreon supporter who has never commented on one of your videos before
thanks!
I swear watching people argue about Baseball statistics is often more interesting then actually watching a Baseball game
this is really cool. I'm a budding baseball nerd and I need more sabermetrics content
I love this format, I really appreciate getting to hear a more informal version of Bailey speak in a more face-to-face type way.
I could listen to that silky smooth voice for days. More videos like this please
this should definitely be a regular series
Aye, my take made the video. Loving it. Keep up the great videos
Look at Bailey, what a beautiful young boi
He’s 25.
@@metalhammerm6903 ok
@@metalhammerm6903 uh, exactly...?
Next Top 5 when Bailey? It’s the content we need
The format was great. "I want to throw up in my mouth after reading [your comment]" is legendary.
Albert Pujols aged naturally
*need the real birth certificate
not what I meant
That was a fun format, wouldn't mind another one
This video was good. Glad you decided to do this when you realize baseball bits was coming out later than expected. Also idk if you've heard this or not, or whether you'll care, but releasing videos on wednesday yields the best results. So maybe aiming to drop Bits on Wednesday would benefits. Even if you're here for the long terms fans, improving long term viability of this as a job would benefit us too.
Bailey + talking about sabermetrics
A match made in heaven
The thing about OPS that bugs me is that it doesn't include SBs, which it should IMO. It's all about seeing how efficient a batter is, and stealing a bag should count towards the bases/ab part (while failing should count against it).
Well its more of a stat based solely on contributions from batting so I dont think baserunning should be calculated unless it can also include guys who score from second on a signle into that as well
this is what oWAR is for. It includes batting, baserunning, double play avoidance and I believe also the positional adjustment, but not fielding like regular bWAR.
@@dkroll92 WAR has its own issues, and could use with some updating as well
Great video, love that you give players a positive spin with sabremetrics rather than tearing them down. Having said that, the mustache is at about -5 UZR right now
I think -5 is generous
My favorite foolish bailey content is any foolish baseball content. Loved the video would like to see another one :)
‘Making your favourite player look worse’ - sabremetrics could make a Jeter, Ichiro or Gwynn look a bit eh. Even Griffey Jr to a certain extent (though I don’t believe that)
Great format. Love the dovetail between bird app and RUclips. Fun.
really liked this style of video bailey, would love to see more in the future
I don't really know what to say but I just want to tell you that I appreciate your content, your sense of humor, and your videos are really enjoyable and interesting
I like this format. Let’s totally do it again!
Love this content. Would like to see more like it! Also I would love to see a baseball bits on Andruw Jones, similar to the most recent one you did about Yadier Molina. I would love to hear you breakdown your reasons why you think he should, or should not be in the hall of fame. Either way it’s a controversial subject that I think is deserving of your analysis. I would love to see that, and I think many others would as well
More content like this!!! Love it
Analytics are very agnostic to how you win in the end. If by changing a little the game you make it more likely to win when you play an aesthetically pleasing game, then analytics will tell you to do just that.
I think changes, either to the rules or the ball or whatever, that would incentivize balls in play would be better from a spectator's point of view.
Home runs are nice and all but they would be even more cool if they'd be rarer. Also, since OBP is (rightly) so valued by ball clubs, having a lot of guys on base and fewer home runs would mean potentially more 2,3 or 4 runs homeruns that are really cool and hype from a spectator's point of view.
Also, I think that if the ball was deadened they'd be less of an incentive to swing (since when HRs are less likely, trying for a walk is better) and guys would strike out less and leave less players on base. With more people on base, swinging for contact and putting the ball in play becomes then better than walking (you can score from second on a single as you said) which makes AVG a better stat. So yeah. I think it makes sense to incentivize balls in play.
Here's the thing about stats, they attempt to use a proxy of something measurable in place of how good a player is. Over time, as they are adopted by those who dole out contracts, people who perform better on those measures than their actual skill will become overrepresented and the stats will become less useful over time.
For example, the best players tend to have higher batting averages. So they hire players who have higher averages, even if they aren't getting walks. Then, they realized that OBP accounts for those players too, so more and more players who walk and hit less started coming in. Then, OPS became more popular because walks were not as productive as hits and OPS accounts for productivity. So more and more 3 true outcome players came in. And if you have too many of those, they can't string together hits and win close games or beat top pitchers.
As the saying goes, all models are wrong. Some, however, are useful.
"Before Trout was, WAR waited for him."
I love Stan Smiths can spot a great worn in pair from a mile. I’m on my 5th pair myself and I can’t wait to wear them for the rest of my life.
This was fun! You do a great job with commentary from suggestions
Love the versatility question. I think about this often with Tony Phillips (as one does). Every time he filled in in the outfield, his positional adjustment would take a hit. But it also means his team didn't have to employ a shitty extra outfielder.
"Mike Trout was made for WAR!"
Excuse me, good sir... I have it on good authority that Mike Trout was made for LOVE!
IKF is undervalued and his defensive versatility is incredible
Especially cuz they replaced him with a stones-for-hands Corey Seager. But hey Mike Young also had stones-for-hands but he was a serviceable shortstop. Just don't think he and his 35m was a large enough upgrade to IKF.
WE NEED MORE OF THIS PLEASE
Was watching baseball bits. Thumbnail and mind told me, click on this video
Really liked this idea! Keep it up Bailey, great job!!
Albert Pujols aged this season like fine wine
Hot takes are as integral to baseball as babe ruth or dollar hot dog night. Would definitely love to see more.
Lets go boys sabermetrics today Mike zunino tomorrow
Video idea. I know it's probably asked a lot and people have probably done it, but maybe do a video series about a stat/saber metric stat and says ways it's used well or not well
Playing OOTP I kinda' hate two way players. I mean I currently have one AWESOME right fielder that starts so I have one less pitcher I need to put on my roster! On the low side when he starts he has to be replaced in the lineup about half the games of the season (even with a 6-man roster- one being a 'bullpen game'- he needs the day before and day after game day off!) so... there goes your roster flexibility when I HAVE to keep an extra capable RFer around anyway. Also it makes putting rosters together complicated esp if I had more starting caliber two way players :/.
Why don’t you DH him so you don’t lose that defense in the field when he’s pitchibg
@@wzac1234 He might be playing as an NL team.
@@wzac1234 not quite but yeah I have a deal like that where my top prospect- also a RFer thankfully- comes in when he pitches so the production is supplemented for the most part luckily- but that's not always gonna be the case.
I do love the format and I think you should do it again
loved this one, Bailey. Would love another
More reactions to baseball hot takes please. Loved this.
Glad to see Plouffe throwing his hat in the ring
Hot take: Bailey is the sexiest human alive
That’s not even a hot take
Still waiting on my custom candlesticks you promised me 2 years ago
great video. I think a series like this sorta in the style of anthony fantano's let's argue series would be a great add to this channel
Love the format, let's do it again
13:24 sums up everything I like about public baseball / sports analytics, made me "aaaawwwww" inside
Let's do it again! I got so sucked up in trying to formulate a meaningful hot take that I missed the assignment window. I'm chomping at the bit here, looking to argue with other baseball nerds about why my hot take is the best one