Energy Systems: Transition & Innovation | Vaclav Smil
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- Опубликовано: 30 сен 2024
- SPEAKER : prof. Vaclav Smil (vaclavsmil.com)
• Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada (Science Academy).
• Interdisciplinary researcher in the fields of energy, environmental and demographic change, food production and nutrition, technical innovation, risk assessment, and public policy.
• Author of 40 books and nearly 500 papers on these topics.
• In 2010 he was named by Foreign Policy as one of the top 100 global thinkers and in 2013 he was appointed as a Member of the Order of Canada.
• He worked as a consultant for many US, EU and international institutions, has been an invited speaker in more than 400 conferences and workshops in the USA, Canada, Europe, Asia and Africa, and has lectured at many universities in North America, Europe and East Asia.
#EnergySystems #EnergyPolicy #EnergyEconomics
Until I read Vaclav Smil I did not realize how I could think about solutions and understand problems at a global scale using the fundamentals of energy and growth and energy use statistics. Scale is important and for understanding how viable change can be.
I love that he called Elon musk the greatest swindler ever. So true
2019: "It's about growth of
bacteria because when bacteria and viruses grow out of proportion well you can get a pandemic and it can kill like half of the humanity"
2020: ...
Real genius.
you took the words out of my mouth. Bill Gates will solve this problem by funding the CDC, Media and the pharmaceutical companies.
What a clever man, wonderful to listen to someone making sense in these stupid times.
"Everything I know, like 99.9% I've read it in the books" Vaclav Smil. A life lesson!
As we watch a lecture 😂
I had to check, if I had playing speed still at 1.75x, as usually. And no! He is just an intellectual sprinter. :)) Great talk.
09:10 To say I believe in global warming is the same as to say I believe in rain. Hahah. Love it!
Yes since the beginning of the world climate has changed.
@@dontjustbeanotherbrickinthewal
Yes and it has been accelerated by humans
@@piewert787 corporations and millionaire private jets maybe a little human beings not so much
The 4 pillars of civilzation = steel ammonia cement plastic have no substiutes and cannot be made with electricity 29:33
If you ignore traditional biomass, fossil fuels are 85% of energy use and in 2000 they were 90% in 1999 8:10
Energizing! So pleasure to listen to Prof Vaclav Smil.
40:50 Elon Musk fans will not appreciate that.
Elon Musk fans are quite confused by what he's talking about. Terraforming Mars isn't on the schedule. That's centuries of work. The only thing Musk mentions about terraforming is his joke about nuking the poles, which is both an amusing idea and a genuine idea for the future, but also not relevant to the current endeavour of SpaceX in the slightest.
This guy the optimist of skepticism
Elon Musk "the greatest huckster under the sun"... finally someone smarter than me sais what I have been thinking all along - confirmation bias kicks in haha... still, electric motors are more effective to combustion engines... but the mars stuff, absolute nonsense !!!
Wow! Listen from 38:19 for just 10 seconds to see how prescient Smil is and how important his work continues to be!
If innovations and research were done with the wellbeing of humanity and the echosystem in mind instead of Greed and profit. As long as the driving force is wealth, profit, the progress will be flawed. It's important to be dedicated and sincere about the wellbeing and peaceful progress of humanity. A new greed free mentality will bring a much more important progress of happiness for humanity.
Great scientist from Czechia!
Ano
Congrats on your country's good gene pool.
@@chrisruss9861 ;-) thank you
On October 14, 2016 I attended a lecture by Vaclav Smil in Vancouver BC. Professor Smil does not live on a faculty salary, I believe he derives a substantial proportion of his income from his publication royalties and thus relies heavily on frequent public appearances to promote his book sales. I was amazed at how bad his English was - for a man who fled Czechoslovakia in 1967 and had ostensibly been living almost 50 years in North America. I was disappointed by his failure to grasp the fundamentals of good public speaking to a general audience: 1. he spoke much too rapidly, 2. whenever he presented a slide he continued to yammer instead of pausing for a few moments of silence to allow our collective visual-cortices to "digest" the contents of the slide, 3. he failed to anticipate and deliver rebuttals to theories that ran contrary to his own. The crux of Smil's thesis, presented that evening, seemed to be that virtually all of modern scientific discovery occurred during just two generations (between 1880 and 1914) and the so-called "progress" during the past 100 years has been merely innovative refinement of those fundamental discoveries. In other words, the discoveries of transistors, radar, television, electron microscopes, superconductivity, atomic fission and fusion, the structure of DNA, the blue l.e.d., etc. are of such minor importance as to be scarcely worth mentioning. After the presentation - during his departure from the hall - I listened to Smil field a few questions from members of the audience; I found his arrogance stifling and the insulting way he dismissed some of the questions to be somewhat distressing.
38:35 growth of virus and pandemic, video uploaded on September 2019 ? Corona started december 2019 lol
He's been talking about pandemics for decades.
Well, in my 300k-population-town in Siberia smells like quite a lot of people transitioned from burning wood twice a day to burning resin and plastic (downgrading and making contributions, I suppose) due to laws banning cutting wood.
I love to hear common sense logic.......especially in this perpetual state of confusion.
There are now 8 billion people living on the earth. That should not be doubled in 50 years. That should be 4 billion people in 50 years. Reason: Fewer people need less steel, amonia, plastics and cement, which cannot be made by electricity. We need amonia to increase the yield of the soil, for food. If there are fewer people, we also need less fossil fuel. The reduction to go from coal to gas combustion is already 40 percent less carbon dioxide, so less people on this earth, from 8 to 4 billion people from 2023 to 2073, that really is the solution. the quality of life also increases.
What a stunning time to be alive
60 books a year??? In my bra!
shit thats like a precocious 12year old. gdamn.
Curious where Smil provides any positive suggestions about how to succeed. No matter where I jump in any of his talks he's describing failure. We know the problem. What's the solution?
The Curious Dimwit jump on to what? Capitulation to disaster?
Solution?
Life is tragic man.
The US quit building nuclear which is only solution he says could be used but we regulated it away just like how German just ran away.
Benwoodruff ok. That’s a reasonable point. Others will point out they have been huge money losers and take too long to build You could be producing energy for a decade with the same investment in other clean energy by the time a nuke is up and running but at least it’s a cogent argument.
That's because there is no simple solution as many environmentalists think. We need to transition to Natural Gas and Nuclear while working to build up renewable capacity. This will be a slow change over generations.
@@coachpearce : Gas is replacing coal but the more we spend on gas, the less we spend on renewables and the longer a transition will take. It is also so that gas extraction is releasing excessive methane so it's barely an improvement. Nuclear may help but it's such a massive money loser it's an unattractive investment. There is currently a huge scandal in Ohio and elsewhere where nuclear companies have been causght bribing politicians to get huge taxpayer bailouts.
Liked this. I like his criticism of Musk and Kurzwell. I wish more people would watch this. Population growth in early '60s was interesting, and now decline. And (fossil fuel) ammonia as fertilizer VS real fertilizer could feed only 2 million people. I liked his criticism of "I believe in global warming." mindsets.
?9vx
Human is nothing but a fact of series events that he'll adapt to it which is called habits! We create habit and get to used to live by the way we taught and developed
*The Secret To Renewable Energy Batteries And Climate*
If the load capacity factor of your solar panel is 10% . your solar doesn’t work 90% of the time . North Euro solar panels work 11% of the time . North shore Euro turbines work 22% of the time . Offshore North Euro turbines work 30% of the time . Offshore Texas turbine work 35% of the time . Batteries and electric vehicles will not affect the climate, earth is heating too fast
Source: “Energy Systems : Transition & Innovation“
- Vaclav Smil 2020 YT 18:14
Vaclav Smil says batteries can’t transition us to renewable energy
Source: “Energy Transitions : Global & National Perspectives“
- Vaclav Smil 2019 YT 27:38 approx
The F-35 fighter jet works 10% of the time
Electricity is 20% of global energy
Renewable electricity is 4% of global energy
Solar & wind electricity is 2% of global energy
with 15% renewable by 2040 - 30% by 2050 if possible
China is bigger than The Godfather Rockefellers & Rothschilds put together
From 1971-2018 oceans took up 89% of the 358 zeta joules of net energy absorbed by earth from the sun, ice took up 4% of it, land took 6% of it and the lower atmosphere took 1% of it
That’s 4 zillion joules, which is 20X more than all the monkey farts ever
The deeper the ocean the faster the heating, the oceans have limits
From 1971-2018 solar forcing averaged 0.47 watts/m²
From 2010-2018 forcing went up to 0.87 watts/m² = rapid acceleration
To force rapid heating down from 0.87 w/m² we have to cut C02
from 410 ppm to 353 ppm. This is not happening, nor will it ever
Source: "Earth Energy Imbalance" - Beckwith YT 2020
15 min
Bill McKibben’s 350 ppm CO2 is not sufficient for getting the Earth’s energy imbalance under control, the required reduction of greenhouse gases is larger and the time that we have to achieve the reduction
Source: Listen up Earth - Clean Technica 2020
Weather = flash floods + flash fires + flash mobs + flash infections
Climate = 30 years of it
With 23 billion nervous chickens on naked earth all it takes is one sneeze
Electricity is 20% of global energy
Renewable electricity is 4% of global energy
Solar & wind electricity is 2% of global energy
with 15% renewable by 2040 - 30% by 2050 if possible
Fossil fuels are 80% of global energy and have been over 25 years - we have to stop burning 50% in 10 years to survive runaway habitat collapse and hothouse extinction.
40% of the Amazon rainforests are ready to flip to grasslands
66% of humans will live in water stressed areas by 2025
Ice is melting 1 million tons per minute per year
Abrupt permafrost emissions are highly likely and not modelled
Europe burns 50% of its renewable electricity burning forests
Europe burns 80% of recycled plastic & paper for electricity
Europe burns 50% of its palm oil shipments in cars & trucks
It takes tree plantations 30 years to recoup 10% of their carbon offset
Wildfire suppression cannot be scaled up for future wildfire scenarios
Trees are growing faster and dying younger
10 years cutting air pollution in China raised global north temps 0.1 °C
Only 4% of total global energy is renewable 2% is solar and wind
15% of total global energy will be renewable by 2040
28% of total global energy will be renewable by 2050
I am not eco-socialist and believe in a private carbon UBI paid monthly
26 Nobel Prize winning economists support James Hansen’s monthly dividends, including: 3,589 U.S. Economists, 4 Former Chairs of the Federal Reserve and ALL 15 Former Chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers
The first collapse dominoes start tipping over near 1.5 °C around 2030
No corporation or government is going to give you a private carbon UBI
A global private carbon UBI is called a supra national fiat currency
Bitcoin is already an international currency based on secrecy
Open carbon dividends are done by agreement above nation state law
There is nothing the gnomes of Zurich hate more
They like loopholes wrapped in closely guarded secrets inside state laws
Private carbon is a new open global currency based on real climate justice
Rich socialists and capitalists hate that fucking shit
They rather we die than be wrong
The war of rich socialists on rich capitalists is 100 years old
It never ends, we got 10 years to deal with reality not ideology
Global social justice takes 40 years, monetary justice takes 40 weeks
If we don't stop wildlife destruction we face runaway hothouse extinction
Vast free use research library at Loki's Revenge blog on wordpress
zzz
Very interesting. Anyway the Prof confuses the capacity factor with the time a renewable energy plant is in production. Even in Bavaria a solar system is producing 30% of the time eventually at limited power. In a foggy day for example a system is probably producing 1-3% of its maximum power. This is valid for all the examples he proposes.
Why is there no mention of nuclear?
He needs to study bitcoin
Teacher or God of science🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Very interesting. Anyway the Prof confuses the capacity factor with the time a renewable energy plant is in production. Even in Bavaria a solar system is producing 30% of the time eventually at limited power. In a foggy day for example a system is probably producing 1-3% of its maximum power. This is valid for all the examples he proposes.
Vaclav on Germany😂😂.... But the less funny thing is that the EU now wants to follow Germany☹️
Yes but while Smil is obviously a very smart guy, he gets a lot wrong on renewables. He woefully underestimated the increases in efficiency and reductions in costs so his predictions such as that Tesla would never be worth much (now $30 billion) were completely wrong.
@@lrvogt1257 He obviously cannot be right about everything. He might still be right about Tesla. Tesla is hopelessly overrated I think.
@@lrvogt1257 VREs could be as cheap as 0, but you'll still need a system that is completely functional without them. Because night comes every day and low wind periods can span for several months.
@@anonjan82 And yet as of 3/7/21 Tesla is worth $700 Billion.
@@ImaskarDono : One or the other is usually producing and they are not the only renewable sources. Regardless, when they produce you need less fossil fuel and with ever improving efficiency and storage it gets better every day.
It's weird to me that Bill Gates is such a fan of this guy. Smil's main message (about 20:00 onwards, and made clear in his books) is very much about letting energy markets operate "organically" rather than brute force gvt intervention/overly-subsidised approach, which to me just sounds like a more politically-viable way of voicing the old-school liberal/free market approach to energy as a market system. On this note, could a European wind engineer/cost analyst tell me honestly: can wind energy thrive without ANY subsidy? I understand they're price-takers but why isn't this ok? The truly benevolent investor will probably accept *some* return over time as long as it's a net profit.
Don't think Gates would agree with that at all. But if anything it's encouraging to see him supporting someone based on sheer intelligence rather than economic ideology.
Also, really interesting hearing Smil talk for the first time. His writing style is so academic and dry (I mean that in a good way) I wasn't expecting him to be so spirited and strongly-opinionated in person!
China has a better idea ... ruclips.net/video/b1Iu9D5RhqQ/видео.html
Both of them are staunch neo-Malthusians.
He never goes to faculty meetings at his university. This allows him to remain human.
38:23
Our only chance of getting out of this dilemma , is if this is all a simulation.
Simulation thinking is identical to religious thinking.
So impressed. I get pleasure watching this 1x normal speed. Most of the time I use 1.5x. I don't like the interviewer.
He keeps saying that he will let the audience in. Then he continues with more questions. The interviewer asks very pedestrian questions. I want to hear from the audience. What an annoying dishonest person. Who is he?
On soil erosion: I don't disagree but surely soil does not take millions of years to develop.
"I don't like to talk about what I am working on"
"Elon Musk is the biggest huckster" .... Maybe he should read a bit more business
"Don't read Ray Kurzweil." Vaclav Smil LOL
2021... Energy more expensive than ever... Shortage of steal... Covid... Im not a reader up untill now but i think im starting... This guy predicted the last 5 years
urgh is anyone convinced by that word soup?
YHS. Video is proof that Shakespeare was right about his statement on ATTORNEYS: We need MORE scientists in charge like the chancellor of Germany and less ATTORNEYS and Corporatist-nurs. But moreover-less attorneys. "The first thing we should do is- - - -" Shakespeare
merkel was a terrible leader, including on energy.
that sigh at 34:22
yup. i feel like almost every environmental scientist these days is suffering a lot. one may call himself 'a rationalist' and therefore separating ones work from feelings/personal ideals. But at the end, everyone engaged with environmental issues is just doing that because they do feel this personal connection or beauty. And it is difficult (not impossible) to be super engaged with something yet accepting its degenerative state. or this is just my personal projection haha xD
If there's no money with it, most will not be interested
@ ~ 16:40 Vaclav is missing the most important point, despite the fact that he literally stepped right over it. It's not "the committees" he rants about that get in the way of innovation. It's the politicians and the politics that WE ALL blindly empower and legitimize who in turn use that power to keep themselves relevant in place of getting the eff out of the way so that we can be all the things Vaclav does appreciate that we are: innovators by nature.
Don't blame "committees." Blame THE VOTER for perpetuating the dysfunctional system in the first place.
IOW's, Vaclav. Teach your "students" to take accountability for making this shit messed up in the first place.
"I have seen the enemy, and he is us." -Pogo
The elite decide who you are allowed to vote for. The best candidates are not allowed on the ballot. There is only one party in places like America and Canada. So, yes, it is the committees and their ilk--the hostile ruling class--that is the problem.
5:25 Let's talk about Energy
Dr. Smil need to read the book, Electrify: An optimists playbook for a clean energy future. He would learn exactly how we can provide clean, efficient electric heating for everyone who needs it. He needs to update his thinking!
Sir, is that book you suggested backed by statistics??? i'm curious to read it
Fortran , your one of the last hardest programmers in the planet
What year was this recorded
Acordaos de nicolai georgescu roegen
Simply the best!
Thank you.
Hadir
Jo
40:40 "demographic future looks extremely bleak" - on the contrary, the quicker the world's population can decrease, the lower the demand on fossil fuel resources and the longer we can stretch them out!
There is no climate emergency, our footprints are ... ruclips.net/video/QOpOnaRMGCY/видео.html&t
High IQ groups are declining, low IQ groups are increasing. This is very bleak indeed.
The only problem with the growth problem is that there is no growth problem to begin with. False premises lead to false conclusions.
What, say nothing and then you don't have to explain it....Hmm, works for you.
Ballz! I slept all day! 😐Ballz and Bat!
so it could be said that in the case of climate change, the change in geographical, geological, biodiversity and atmosphere, will take a huge toll on the world's energy expenditure, required to counter and adapt to the resultant conditions.
therefore, it is better to expend a much smaller amount of global energy now, in order to mitigate the risk, while at the same slow down the rate of change and figure out strategies, methodology and estimation of flexibility in adaptablity, needed to make the transition to future conditions.
?
🧐
moreover, the resultant conditions will more than likely greatly increase, in the absence of efficient technology, our energy consumption, and therefore, a greater reliance on energy sources, present then.
Co2 is plant food and ideal amount of Co2 in the atmosphere for plants is probably 800 - 1800 part per million ( was 280 parts per million and is now about 420 parts per million ).
And what amount is ideal for the species currently inhabiting earth? I would expect the amount under which they evolved would be best, not a different amount but far more importantly than that not an amount changing more rapidly than ever.
Plant biologist fundamentally disagree with you!
This is kinda hilarious. This guy is an immigrant. Elon Musk is an immigrant. This guy writes books. Musk lands THE FIRST reusable rocket in history - autonomously...IN TANDEM. All while the old white guy-professor calls the young white guy a "huckster."
So tell me. WHO puts on "the show" here? WHO is the REAL huckster?
Hint: It ain't the guy who actually builds rockets while "the other guy" writes books...
His reaction and perception of Elon Musk was extremely disappointing and actually made me distrust his philosophical standing on scientific ideas. It was definitely a reptilian display of jealousy and intimidation masked as belittling
He's not wrong about Elon making some fanciful promises.