This is an AI Audio remastering of an older video : ruclips.net/video/-dYJRpGp5ac/видео.html At that time, I used terms like 'Egghead' to describe hypertheoretical opinions. I have since stopped using that term, but old footage that is repurposed will still have it.
Technically, there are nonagenarians alive who remember the Great Depression. That was the last significant bout of deflation in the US. And it kind of proves your point. The Great Depression was horribly miserable.
You make 1 big mistake: Deflation in an inflationary system is worse... Yes. But Deflation in an deflationary system is fine as proven by history and countless societies based on gold. In a deflationary system no-one would have a mortgage or high debts as its not feasible and a house would not be an asset anymore (as many more things). People would buy a house when they have the liquidity (driving down housing prices oyeah and bye banks) and the deflation does not take the money of people who can only afford to save in money instead of assets. Also only productive asset will be assets in a deflationary system increase productivity massively cause bankruptcy would happen quick if not productive, less painfull and less zombie companies. But again in the current inflationary system with high debts this is more difficult
What you describe is entirely theoretical, and societies 'based on gold' do not exist in the modern age. One would have to go back 400 years and create a system without any debt (including sovereign debt like bonds), for the reality of today to be that different. So I wouldn't say that I 'made a mistake'.
@@KartikGadaATOM fair point, well not 400 years ago and theoretical but still. 1971 gold standard could be argued or before the fed reserve but we are definitely past the point of a painless fix as the debt bubble has ballooned.
Although it doesn't change your argument, the unemployment rate is calculated much differently today than it was up until the 1980s. Therefore, calculating the misery index in the 1980s, would lead to a much different (and likely higher) number than would be calculated today, assuming the same rate of inflation.
It may make a difference of about a percent, as there is some grey area under the terms 'part time' and 'stopped looking'. But the ratio of jobs to working-age population is still pretty tightly correlated to what the expected UE rate would be, both before and after the 1980s.
Could you explain to us what the FED rate cut means for the economy please? I struggle to understand and people have conflicting views, some people think that this is bearish, others think that this is bullish
Rate cuts are usually more bullish. But at the same time, some people feel a rate cut is evidence that things are turning worse. This, of course, contradicts the first point. I, of course, think rates should never have been raised in the first place, as inflation is collapsing back down.
@@KartikGadaATOM I see Since you forecast +$50T to +$100T printed between 2020 & 2030 and considering that we're close to 2025 with not even +$10T printed, then I assume that you are very bullish on financial assets for the next 5 years to come correct?
Well when prices can only continue to go up through adding more and more debt government, corporations,and private individuals Then technology starts pushing prices down faster than debt can be added. Catastrophic outcomes.
Depending on what numbers out of China you can believe China is seeing the really bad type of deflation while there is not enough demand abroad for all of its government subsidized goods it produces
@@KartikGadaATOM declining fertility rates are an issue around the planet. Make raising children more expensive get fewer children. I can't afford to have children my wages when I find work are lower than 20 years ago. I have given up because the only ei have to look forward to is living on the street the rest of my life.
@@KartikGadaATOM well china had the one child policy but fertility rates have been dropping in much of the world. The US has a unique set of conditions so it won't be a problem here.
I'm not going to cry for people who borrowed their way into ruin. Deflation was the catalyst for the creation of the middle class by rewarding the prudent and thoughtful. Modern monetary theory is a siphon on the wealth of savers into the pockets of the wealthy at the behest of the avarice. A penny saved is a penny earned cannot occur in a society of rampant inflation.
@@KartikGadaATOM This is where you get it wrong; it's not the impact that matters, but the outcome. Deflationary periods are a part and parcel result of the natural misallocation of inter-dispersed wealth across a broad population. It's macroeconomic oscillation creates lower peaks and lower troughs which lessen it's average impact to the greater society; but given the broadness required for each cycles development, the runs up and down have historically lasted longer in duration. Inflation on the other hand is a beast of the very same human nature, except that it is at the behest of 'better men' wherein wealth concentrates in the hands of a few. It's upticks and downturns are sharp, it's oscillations narrower. It creates whiplash effects throughout societies, destroying cultures, and pins poor against poorer. So yeah, I'm not going engage in your burden of proof fallacy. You made the youtube video, you're the one making the argument. One need only look at the macroeconomic history of america, western society's ascension from the dark ages, the fall of the roman empire, and really any other civilizational collapse to understand what it's body-politick did in its final days. But yeah, don't worry too much about your argument. Deflation will come one way or another; just continue to appeal to those who want short-term relief by printing money, the political stance of 'modern monetary theory' has gotten us all this far. So why not kick the can just a bit further? Maybe we'll all die before it bites. "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered." -Thomas Jefferson
Well, if you can't point to any specific period where deflation in the US created widespread wealth, it is safe to say there is no such period. The video explains why deflation is catastrophic in a debt-heavy society. The only deflationary period of the last 130 years was the indisputably worst period, the Great Depression (1929-39). Now, if one could go back 400 years and not create so many types of debt, then perhaps deflation could fit within a hypothetical system. But as that ship has sailed, deflation will never be productive for wealth creation unless matched with increasing money supply. I never once spoke about MMT favorably, so you might be thinking of a different channel.
You're assuming that wealth creation is a zero sum game. That couldn't be further from the truth. Under capitalism, successful businesses cause an increase in net wealth, even if their competition suffers or goes bankrupt. "Deflation created the middle class" - that's completely ridiculous and nonsensical.
@@KartikGadaATOM This is where your thinking falls apart. It's not about pinpointing specific periods of wealth creation under deflation; it’s about understanding how the system shifts and reallocates wealth. Deflation isn’t some disaster for wealth creation; it's part of a natural cycle that redistributes resources to where true value lies. The idea that deflation can’t coexist with wealth creation unless you "increase the money supply" shows you’re missing the bigger picture. Look at the Long Deflation in U.S. history-it didn’t cause widespread wealth destruction. In fact, industries flourished, real wages rose as prices dropped, and those who understood the shifts came out ahead. The fact that it doesn’t meet your definition of "widespread wealth" doesn’t negate the outcomes. Wealth concentrated where the opportunities were, just like it always does. Debt-heavy societies like ours, sure, feel the pain of deflation harder. But let’s be clear: inflation is no savior. It’s the same beast, just wearing a different facaud. Inflation sharpens the wealth divide faster, making the rich richer and the poor poorer. You can talk all day about how deflation is catastrophic in a debt-ridden world, but inflation does just as much damage, only faster, and with more volatility. So no, I’m not buying your argument about hypothetical systems or some need to pair deflation with endless money supply. The real issue is the oscillation of wealth-whether through deflation or inflation-and who benefits from it. History shows us that these cycles run their course, and those who understand them adapt. It’s not about avoiding deflation or inflation; it’s about navigating them. And as for Modern Monetary Theory, I’m not accusing you of being an MMT proponent-though your reliance on money-printing rhetoric sure sounds like it. The fact is, our current path, driven by short-term fixes and printing more money to chase inflation, has gotten us here. Maybe deflation is what we need to rebalance things, painful as it may be. But sure, keep kicking the can down the road, keep inflating the bubble, and maybe we’ll all avoid the reckoning-until we don’t.
![YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Catch Me [Official Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/KxwEXXFQMTY/mqdefault.jpg)
This is an AI Audio remastering of an older video : ruclips.net/video/-dYJRpGp5ac/видео.html
At that time, I used terms like 'Egghead' to describe hypertheoretical opinions. I have since stopped using that term, but old footage that is repurposed will still have it.
Technically, there are nonagenarians alive who remember the Great Depression. That was the last significant bout of deflation in the US. And it kind of proves your point. The Great Depression was horribly miserable.
You make 1 big mistake: Deflation in an inflationary system is worse... Yes. But Deflation in an deflationary system is fine as proven by history and countless societies based on gold. In a deflationary system no-one would have a mortgage or high debts as its not feasible and a house would not be an asset anymore (as many more things). People would buy a house when they have the liquidity (driving down housing prices oyeah and bye banks) and the deflation does not take the money of people who can only afford to save in money instead of assets. Also only productive asset will be assets in a deflationary system increase productivity massively cause bankruptcy would happen quick if not productive, less painfull and less zombie companies. But again in the current inflationary system with high debts this is more difficult
What you describe is entirely theoretical, and societies 'based on gold' do not exist in the modern age. One would have to go back 400 years and create a system without any debt (including sovereign debt like bonds), for the reality of today to be that different.
So I wouldn't say that I 'made a mistake'.
@@KartikGadaATOM fair point, well not 400 years ago and theoretical but still. 1971 gold standard could be argued or before the fed reserve but we are definitely past the point of a painless fix as the debt bubble has ballooned.
Although it doesn't change your argument, the unemployment rate is calculated much differently today than it was up until the 1980s. Therefore, calculating the misery index in the 1980s, would lead to a much different (and likely higher) number than would be calculated today, assuming the same rate of inflation.
It may make a difference of about a percent, as there is some grey area under the terms 'part time' and 'stopped looking'.
But the ratio of jobs to working-age population is still pretty tightly correlated to what the expected UE rate would be, both before and after the 1980s.
Could you explain to us what the FED rate cut means for the economy please?
I struggle to understand and people have conflicting views, some people think that this is bearish, others think that this is bullish
Rate cuts are usually more bullish. But at the same time, some people feel a rate cut is evidence that things are turning worse. This, of course, contradicts the first point.
I, of course, think rates should never have been raised in the first place, as inflation is collapsing back down.
@@KartikGadaATOM I see
Since you forecast +$50T to +$100T printed between 2020 & 2030 and considering that we're close to 2025 with not even +$10T printed, then I assume that you are very bullish on financial assets for the next 5 years to come correct?
Well when prices can only continue to go up through adding more and more debt government, corporations,and private individuals
Then technology starts pushing prices down faster than debt can be added.
Catastrophic outcomes.
Depending on what numbers out of China you can believe China is seeing the really bad type of deflation while there is not enough demand abroad for all of its government subsidized goods it produces
Maybe. But a total collapse in domestic fertility rate (now down to 1.0) also adds to this. China has a severe shortage of babies.
@@KartikGadaATOM declining fertility rates are an issue around the planet. Make raising children more expensive get fewer children.
I can't afford to have children my wages when I find work are lower than 20 years ago. I have given up because the only ei have to look forward to is living on the street the rest of my life.
China's collapse in fertility is much faster than any other major country and certainly faster than the US.
@@KartikGadaATOM well china had the one child policy but fertility rates have been dropping in much of the world. The US has a unique set of conditions so it won't be a problem here.
Deflation has no incentive to take risk
Inflation has no incentive to be averse. It's a ever growing misallocation of capital toward unproductive means.
I'm not going to cry for people who borrowed their way into ruin. Deflation was the catalyst for the creation of the middle class by rewarding the prudent and thoughtful. Modern monetary theory is a siphon on the wealth of savers into the pockets of the wealthy at the behest of the avarice. A penny saved is a penny earned cannot occur in a society of rampant inflation.
That is incorrect. What historical deflationary period correlated with a major gain in median wealth?
@@KartikGadaATOM This is where you get it wrong; it's not the impact that matters, but the outcome.
Deflationary periods are a part and parcel result of the natural misallocation of inter-dispersed wealth across a broad population. It's macroeconomic oscillation creates lower peaks and lower troughs which lessen it's average impact to the greater society; but given the broadness required for each cycles development, the runs up and down have historically lasted longer in duration.
Inflation on the other hand is a beast of the very same human nature, except that it is at the behest of 'better men' wherein wealth concentrates in the hands of a few. It's upticks and downturns are sharp, it's oscillations narrower. It creates whiplash effects throughout societies, destroying cultures, and pins poor against poorer.
So yeah, I'm not going engage in your burden of proof fallacy. You made the youtube video, you're the one making the argument. One need only look at the macroeconomic history of america, western society's ascension from the dark ages, the fall of the roman empire, and really any other civilizational collapse to understand what it's body-politick did in its final days.
But yeah, don't worry too much about your argument. Deflation will come one way or another; just continue to appeal to those who want short-term relief by printing money, the political stance of 'modern monetary theory' has gotten us all this far. So why not kick the can just a bit further? Maybe we'll all die before it bites.
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered." -Thomas Jefferson
Well, if you can't point to any specific period where deflation in the US created widespread wealth, it is safe to say there is no such period.
The video explains why deflation is catastrophic in a debt-heavy society. The only deflationary period of the last 130 years was the indisputably worst period, the Great Depression (1929-39).
Now, if one could go back 400 years and not create so many types of debt, then perhaps deflation could fit within a hypothetical system. But as that ship has sailed, deflation will never be productive for wealth creation unless matched with increasing money supply.
I never once spoke about MMT favorably, so you might be thinking of a different channel.
You're assuming that wealth creation is a zero sum game. That couldn't be further from the truth. Under capitalism, successful businesses cause an increase in net wealth, even if their competition suffers or goes bankrupt. "Deflation created the middle class" - that's completely ridiculous and nonsensical.
@@KartikGadaATOM This is where your thinking falls apart. It's not about pinpointing specific periods of wealth creation under deflation; it’s about understanding how the system shifts and reallocates wealth. Deflation isn’t some disaster for wealth creation; it's part of a natural cycle that redistributes resources to where true value lies.
The idea that deflation can’t coexist with wealth creation unless you "increase the money supply" shows you’re missing the bigger picture. Look at the Long Deflation in U.S. history-it didn’t cause widespread wealth destruction. In fact, industries flourished, real wages rose as prices dropped, and those who understood the shifts came out ahead. The fact that it doesn’t meet your definition of "widespread wealth" doesn’t negate the outcomes. Wealth concentrated where the opportunities were, just like it always does.
Debt-heavy societies like ours, sure, feel the pain of deflation harder. But let’s be clear: inflation is no savior. It’s the same beast, just wearing a different facaud. Inflation sharpens the wealth divide faster, making the rich richer and the poor poorer. You can talk all day about how deflation is catastrophic in a debt-ridden world, but inflation does just as much damage, only faster, and with more volatility.
So no, I’m not buying your argument about hypothetical systems or some need to pair deflation with endless money supply. The real issue is the oscillation of wealth-whether through deflation or inflation-and who benefits from it. History shows us that these cycles run their course, and those who understand them adapt. It’s not about avoiding deflation or inflation; it’s about navigating them.
And as for Modern Monetary Theory, I’m not accusing you of being an MMT proponent-though your reliance on money-printing rhetoric sure sounds like it. The fact is, our current path, driven by short-term fixes and printing more money to chase inflation, has gotten us here. Maybe deflation is what we need to rebalance things, painful as it may be.
But sure, keep kicking the can down the road, keep inflating the bubble, and maybe we’ll all avoid the reckoning-until we don’t.