Allan Lichtman: October surprise 'huge myth,' predicts Harris victory | Cuomo
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- Опубликовано: 7 окт 2024
- The "October surprise" is a "huge myth" in American politics, according to the historian who devised the “Keys to the White House” formula. Allan Lichtman, a historian and American University professor, has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984 using a formula of 13 true-or-false questions.
"My system is based upon the fundamental forces that drive elections. ... It's governing, not campaigning, that counts," Lichtman said on NewsNation's "CUOMO." "I've always always made my predictions before then (October) and I never change them." Frank Luntz, a renowned pollster and communications consultant, also weighs in on "CUOMO."
#Harris #Election2024 #Cuomo
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why are we even voting? shouldn't we just take his word for it! My 1 vote counts more than all of their opinions. GO VOTE!! Good Luck!!!
All 3 of these pegs needs to get a room!😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
🤣🤣🤣3 tools!!!!
@@ginaoelkers5670 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
he is arrogant
@@aficios59 you don't say 😲😲😁
You'll have to specify which arrogant one you're referring to 😂
@@Bnathanb1982lol🎯🎯🎯
What's the point of all this if it's the electoral college who chooses who wins?
He is correct! Historian!He is bright too!
Santos won because he was telling people EVERYTHING they wanted to hear.
Which guy has the nicer rug?
Lantz’ rug is very apparent; Lichtman looks like a 77 year old wearing a little boy’s haircut (or Lloyd Christmas for that matter)😂😂😂
the old wig guy and the shoe polish guy. I trust their judgement.
U need to whoever u are. Look at trumpys hairdo. 😂😂😂😂
Good luck both of you
Cuomo & the Toupee Twins
If the Biden/Harris loses the election; they had it coming. This is an election that I do not want either candidate as the US President. They both scare the living day light out of me. VP Harris has yet to visit states outside her comfort and refuses to give direct answers to anything.
Lichtman talks about polling being wrong for both sides. He's coping here, because mid terms and main election years are completely different. And when it comes to Trump, even more so. Trump has historically outperformed the polls by a wide margin, and there's no reason to expect any difference here. He might win the popular vote.
Would that make Lichtman regret his 13 keys to the White House? He already proved how successful his predictions were 9 out 10 times
He won’t win the popular vote when Democrats win by huge margins in California, New York & Illinois.😂😂
Funniest thing I heard yet. 😂
@@MJBfromWilloughby prediction? Like there's twenty candidates to pick from. There's always two. Anyone with half a brain could at least hit 70% of the time, if you know anything about politics. I'm predicting Trump, we'll see n I'll come back to this.
That assumes that pollsters haven't changed their methodology to adjust for their Trump under sampling. If they have adjusted, then this really is an extremely close election
3 stooges
Here we go again with the same Polls that predicted the Red wave 😂
where's ketchup cant beat the tampons project 25
Lichtman is high on his own supply.
And if Harris wins, you the one that's high.
Kamala has had the opportunity to display how she would lead on the world stage since Biden step down in regard to the Immigrant Crisis, The Israel-Palestinian Conflict and Natural Disaster support and she has failed to show leadership and take these issues head on
All these years I never realized Pence has been running the country for Trump during his 1st term. Who could of thought?
Exactly she is the biggest vp failure
Biden is the President so Kamala has yet to have an opportunity which is why she is running. A bit obvious really.
Biden did not step down from being the current president.
2:15 Trump seems unhinged? What?….when?
Don't underestimate the war in the middle east plus the response to the hurricanes with $750 loans
Well listen to Lichtman and you will understand why those issues make ZERO difference just as Trump getting done in the debate had ZERO effect much to the disappointment of Dems. Note this - for all the events plus and minus for both sides since Harris became the runner there have been almost ZERO actual changes in the polls so why think those two will matter.
The only people who are going to believe the lies about FEMA are those who are in the middle of the conspiracy but most Americans know it's a bunch of hogwash
I predict both these pathetic clowns will be wrong again. There is a reason they are scraping the bottom of the barrel on NewsNothing. Neither has any credibility left.
45 47
100%
💯💯💯🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🎯
Be ready for him to be wrong!
About what? Something that Trump gave a note of congratulations to Professor Lichtman for his model
😂😂😂😂😂 losing nig time
Never happen.
You wish buddy
Yep.
Well HW Bush won in 88 despite this “17 points behind.” He did however lose to Clinton in 1992. A misquote I can’t say
On November 6th this guy should have to go on every show and apologize
lol that guy needs to stop smoking
Even CNN is admitting that Trump is winning
He is banking on the cheating he must have some inside information
To big to rig no Obama 4th term
HARRIS!!
Lichtman is putting his thumb on the scale this year. His keys that should go to Trump by previous years' standards are being given to Harris. Id trust betting markets before either of the toupee twins
Tell us which keys you disagree with
@@TimMountjoy-zy2fd he has her as the charismatic change candidate instead of the incumbent, lack of social unrest, ignoring economic indicators. That's just 3 for starters.
Trump president
This time you are wrong, remember in the later days false prophets will arise and you are one of them.
Oh shut up
@@gdesiree29Stay scared. 😂😂😂😂
I Agree...The Devil In Trump Is Deceitful And Good Will Win Again....Good Wins Over Evil.....
Yep stick with the bible and remain simply clueless because you hope and hope and have ZERO analytical grasp of what Lichtman is actually saying.
He is crazy
Lichtman emotional forecast??
The hair piece guy 👀 confused 😂even my mother by the way is Hispanic and voting for trump was laughing 🤣 cracking up 😂 here saying why you were a cat 🐈⬛ in you head 😂😂😂😂😂
LOL. 😂 I hope this guy comes on after the elections.
And wow, he predicted Obama's victory. Amazing. 😂😂😂😂
Total genius. I'm sure everyone was predicting McCain and Palin were gonna win.
Trump 2024!
Harris will win !
When FEMA can't respond to the storm that comes after Helene and Milton, there goes the vote for Kamala.
Trump 2024 Baby!!! Get out and vote like Elon said.🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸❤❤❤ America first!!!!
Love always wins
Trump is in capable
You know it but chose to deny it
I do trust Allan Lichtmans keys! You tell them Allan 😊
I don't know who will win, but I like that Allan sticks to facts. The polls are just surveys.
Both of these clowns are Trump hating pollsters.
Its probably a bit beyond you this so maybe best to leave to people who actually grasp what is being said here.
One of your best Chris. Luntz & Lichtman.
Vote , vote , vote. Don’t listen to him. Vote for Trump!!!!!!!!! 🙏🙏🙏🙏
What a weirdo 😂
Vote blue💙
Love better
More often
Love has never come from trump
Never will
This Professor is a biased person. He does not care inflation and foreign policy failure. He assigns his 2 keys on Kamala's side which is wrong.
Inflation is global, not just in the U.S. and foreign policy has been blow out of proportion. The U.S. isn't involved in any wars where U.S. boots are on the ground.
Inflation is finished and over and people know that and the economy in the USA is actually positive. He has given a negative Key to foreign policy.
Trump 2024 ❤❤❤❤
people vote for different reasons every election cycle. the keys could be outdated 🤷♂
They are definitely this is a different election year with the switch of candidates. This guys nuts.
@@ginaoelkers5670 Please vote everyone. Trump is counting on us!!!! PLEASE VOTE ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Kamala win 🎉 watch this
Lichtman doing gymnastics again lol
Congratulation President Harris... Lictman is NEVER WRONG.........
Lichtman is brilliant. He should have his own political show.
@@posthocprior we're all brilliant in our own minds, brilliance has a good till expiration date by the way...
😂😂😂 well if his prediction comes true, God please help USA . Congratulations for the hew clueless female president 😂😂😂.
He's nailed it again.
Trump 2024 🇺🇸
Hey Al. Guess what you model is broken. For a start, your incumbent denies she is the incumbent. So that key is totally shattered. Why does she deny? Because the economy and every thing is so bad. That is another whole bunch of keys broken. Its so broken you cannot get out, like in Al as in Alkasaz. Ouch
MAGA IN THE COMMENTS UPSET ABOUT LITCHMAN THE 🐐 FACTS 😂🔵
God, the narcissism of AL is so irritating and insufferable. Please stop giving the stage to this person.
I'd rather listen to him than listen to polls - he's 10 notches ahead of polling.
Lichtman's "criteria" points to a Trump vistory but he says Kamala will win?
Based. Vote Trump.
Never
💙Vote Harris✨💙✨
President Kamala Harris🎉🎉🎉
Lichtman will be wrong for second time. He’s due.
Not gonna happen
Get ur kleenex out.
@@danasutton6769she is losing you need to get the kleenex
@@danasutton6769 He was neve4 wrong. Unlike 2020 2000 was truly a stolen election.
Actually he was not that wrong that 1 time either. It was a tie.
For the sake of America, I hope Lichtman is wrong.
You spelled "Russia" wrong
He is. Start with the incumbent. His definition does not even apply or is denied by the incumbent. Defection. You have top dems defecting. Short term econ. That is universally accepted as bad. Scandal. No stop revelations. You go on and on. Al tries to brush it all to on side and turn the bias against GOP upside down. That is not even professionally honest.
@@masterchinese28 Lol nice
Love it 🎉🎉🎉Kamala Harris win 😊
He was wrong in 2016.
Dont worry he will be wrong again.
Trump!!!!
Chris, get this guy as a guest on your show. ruclips.net/video/8pDMc59Fmys/видео.html
You both are a joke. Trump 24.
No they got it !
@danasutton6769 ✨💙✨
Something about Lichtman seems swarmy and jerky.
Yeah it called being a lefty nut bag!
I think it's the 77 year old hair that contains the cheapest red dye since polling began!
Lichtman gonna retire from making predictions if Trump wins again.😂😂
He is not going to b wrong
@danasutton6769 for the sake of his career, he has to be right.
@@danasutton6769women don't like her much either
Who is this other guy? Sorry
fool this guy is on drugs
He might be right but I wouldn’t want to bet the farm on it. That being said he does have a proven track record.
bs blahblahblah
She has this college grad vote 🗳💙💙💙💙
Free Palestine!
😂😂😂😂😂😂 OK 304
I’m a college kid and I’m voting for trump
Trump will loose and cry again
Trump2024
Lichtman tryna hide disgust and disdain behind some "objective" home made metrics...but Oh Boy does the anger show sticking out of the corners of the presentation screen
😂😂😂😂😂
Please vote everyone. Trump is counting on us!!!! PLEASE VOTE ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
😂😂😂😂
Harris victory? Yeah Ok.
Yes indeed.
@@danasutton6769 God help us.
NO TO PROJECT 2025! VOTE BLUE HARRIS-WALZ! 💯🇺🇸
✨💙✨
Harris2024🇺🇸💙
Vote VIBES over policy!!! 💙
Frank Luntz make your bet. 😂
WE FEEL GREAT ABOUT HARRIS/ WALZ 2024 🇺🇸💙🇺🇸💙🇺🇸
free Palestine!!
Horrible Harris and Tampon Tim good luck with that😆😊
I predict Trump Winning. Your system is wrong buddy 😂😂😂
His key questions say that if there is unrest in the country or scandal the incumbent won't win. Look at the state of the country.
@@ginaoelkers5670 Kamala does not identify as incumbent
Kamala 🙏🏻
Harris wins
@david3549tw I think so too except if...
No
She wins popular vote.
The keys say so.
Trump will win the electoral.
Harris all the way 2024
Its gonna be heavy VIBES election
✨💙✨BLUE POWER💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
KAMALA WILL WIN CAUSE NANCY SAID SO!!
💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
Lol trump is a lock…
😂😂😂😂😂
Shes a winner !!!
Give it a up Alan..this is one that is going to bite that 77 year old ass!
Trump 2024!