Очень болезненное поражение... Всё никак не мог заставить себя проанализировать эту игру, но первые ощущения были, что пиндеру доехало в концовке. Глянул вот обзор: он меня всю игру за нос водил... И если бы выиграл я, это было бы не по делу... Хотя могло получше в конце зайти, были бы мы чемпионами)
i think i was most surprised by the move at 17:03. it feels like green should combine the roads there (and place a meeple on it) that he ends up ultimately needing to block in the endgame.
Why didn't green put the tile near the monastery, when there were 45 tiles left? It could be better than putting it at his road: - both moves give +1 point, either for monastery or the road, but - near the monastery he would get additional point(s) by completing (continuing) the city - he would bring the monastery closer to completion, unlike the road (which was made slightly safer, but still it seems not as important to me as the monastery) Yes, near the monastery he would leave 2 points of half-finished road, but he is almost as likely to get quick points from them as the other player - 45% vs 55%, according to my program :)
Good question! The move you're suggesting is definitely a good move, too. There are a couple subtle reasons that I thing Green could have had in mind. 1. It is possible to loop up the road with three more tiles and use the monastery tile already on the board as the road finishing tile. Three tiles is a lot, but 1.1. the game is long, and it's nice to have that extra equity, 1.2. these would be low value road tiles that Green doesn't need elsewhere and 1.3., looping the road around the monastery would threaten to add two points (1 for the road, 1 for the monastery) per road tile. 2. If Black were to try to join the road, he'd be forced to add a point to Green's monastery, and the connection would not be guaranteed, because all 8 crossroads are still in the deck. 3. The 2 points of half-finished road that you mentioned was probably the decisive factor for Green and would have been the decisive factor for me, too. Is it really only 45%-55% indeed, given that *12* road ending tiles are still in the deck? That's certainly counterintuitive! Maybe Green was like me and expected a bigger than 55% probability. Even so, 3.1. giving 55% away is not nothing, and, more importantly, 3.2. In the current state, Green now *controls* the only 2-point road on board, which is a great position to be in. If Black draws a crossroads, green gets 2-1=1 point. If Green gets a crossroads, he gets 2+1=3 points. Leaving a dangling road like this would relinquish this advantage. And a final minor yet non-zero factor that might have deterred Green from starting a city next to his monastery is that 3.3. regardless of who draws the crossroads first, the completion of a 3-point road on the left would create an attacking platform on the newly-started city, especially if Green is the one who completes that 3-point road (because then it'd be Black's turn, with which he could immediately start impeding the growth/completion of the newly-started city).
Sorry about the probability, it was my mistake, i put in 8 road ending tiles instead of 12. When I input 12 tiles, I get the probability *42% vs 58%* in favor of Black. I double-checked it in Excel, so now it should be right. Still not radical disadvantage, but your point about the control is very valid! I also did not think about blocking the city in my proposed move, and about the looping of the road in the actual Green's move... Now I agree with you, huge thanks for such detailed argumentation! It's fascinating that some players can think about these reasons in such short time. Or maybe part of it is already recorded in their intuition?
Great content! I'm new in Carcassonne and not many players playing competitively in my country! so glad I know your channel from MSO 2021, thank you I learned a lot! btw, about the video quality, I think the audio is mono? when I listen using a headphone I only hear from the left side
Hi Alexey, The video is great including the sound quality. I have a question about the move pinder_tron made with the curved road (with 47 tiles remaining ). Should pinder_tron not have used it to try to start creating a block on those two monasteries at the top? Or would it be too costly to try it (too many turns?) and that's why he went and built on the road. It looks strange that he helps build around the opponent's monasteries. I guess pinder_tron did not use it to try to restrict the opponent's city (top left) because he would be potentially blocking two of his own meeples (his road + monastery) for the sake of blocking just one meeple of the opponent.
Thank you for your comment! On one hand, he helps his opponent a bit, but he helps himself more. With the move in the game, green is adding 3 points to himself (1 monastery point + 2 road points) and only 1 point for his opponent. Also, after this move he is controlling two opponent's monastery meeples with his one road meeple. This means that black is likely to add one further point to green's road when completing his monasteries (and this is what happened later in the game). A blocking attempt from above would be too low-probability, because there still 3 crfr (starting) tiles still in the game, so it's not possible to create an unfillable hole. And the curve is too useful in that situation to spend on a blocking attempt. If pinder_tron drew a more suitable tile for blocking, e.g. cccf, then I think he would go for the block.
@@AlexeysCarcassonneChannel Thank you. Do you not think it was a mistake of 71st not to claim the straight road that he put on top of his two monasteries just before the move I mentioned above? You said it would be 'too dangerous', is it really?
@@concord2546 It's a close call. I don't think either way is a big mistake. "Too dangerous" was probably not the best choice of words. I meant "not worth the risk". All 8 road dividers are still in the game, and in total there are 16 tiles with which green can prevent the road connection in one move. I didn't calculate the odds properly but in my estimation, there is about 35% chance of successful connection if you claim the road, definitely well below 50%. However, I wouldn't play the move in the game, if I were black. I would just claim the 6-point road at the bottom right and wait for a better tile to continue my monasteries with.
![ROSÉ(로제) - APT. (Band VER.) (With. 이영지) [더 시즌즈-이영지의 레인보우] | KBS 241129 방송](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/IW8qaemx74g/mqdefault.jpg)
Очень болезненное поражение... Всё никак не мог заставить себя проанализировать эту игру, но первые ощущения были, что пиндеру доехало в концовке. Глянул вот обзор: он меня всю игру за нос водил... И если бы выиграл я, это было бы не по делу... Хотя могло получше в конце зайти, были бы мы чемпионами)
i think i was most surprised by the move at 17:03. it feels like green should combine the roads there (and place a meeple on it) that he ends up ultimately needing to block in the endgame.
Hey, the sound is recorded only on the left speaker/mic. Keep up the good work :)
great channel and content
Thank you!
Why didn't green put the tile near the monastery, when there were 45 tiles left? It could be better than putting it at his road:
- both moves give +1 point, either for monastery or the road, but
- near the monastery he would get additional point(s) by completing (continuing) the city
- he would bring the monastery closer to completion, unlike the road (which was made slightly safer, but still it seems not as important to me as the monastery)
Yes, near the monastery he would leave 2 points of half-finished road, but he is almost as likely to get quick points from them as the other player - 45% vs 55%, according to my program :)
Good question! The move you're suggesting is definitely a good move, too. There are a couple subtle reasons that I thing Green could have had in mind. 1. It is possible to loop up the road with three more tiles and use the monastery tile already on the board as the road finishing tile. Three tiles is a lot, but 1.1. the game is long, and it's nice to have that extra equity, 1.2. these would be low value road tiles that Green doesn't need elsewhere and 1.3., looping the road around the monastery would threaten to add two points (1 for the road, 1 for the monastery) per road tile.
2. If Black were to try to join the road, he'd be forced to add a point to Green's monastery, and the connection would not be guaranteed, because all 8 crossroads are still in the deck.
3. The 2 points of half-finished road that you mentioned was probably the decisive factor for Green and would have been the decisive factor for me, too. Is it really only 45%-55% indeed, given that *12* road ending tiles are still in the deck? That's certainly counterintuitive! Maybe Green was like me and expected a bigger than 55% probability.
Even so, 3.1. giving 55% away is not nothing, and, more importantly, 3.2. In the current state, Green now *controls* the only 2-point road on board, which is a great position to be in. If Black draws a crossroads, green gets 2-1=1 point. If Green gets a crossroads, he gets 2+1=3 points. Leaving a dangling road like this would relinquish this advantage. And a final minor yet non-zero factor that might have deterred Green from starting a city next to his monastery is that 3.3. regardless of who draws the crossroads first, the completion of a 3-point road on the left would create an attacking platform on the newly-started city, especially if Green is the one who completes that 3-point road (because then it'd be Black's turn, with which he could immediately start impeding the growth/completion of the newly-started city).
Sorry about the probability, it was my mistake, i put in 8 road ending tiles instead of 12. When I input 12 tiles, I get the probability *42% vs 58%* in favor of Black. I double-checked it in Excel, so now it should be right. Still not radical disadvantage, but your point about the control is very valid!
I also did not think about blocking the city in my proposed move, and about the looping of the road in the actual Green's move... Now I agree with you, huge thanks for such detailed argumentation! It's fascinating that some players can think about these reasons in such short time. Or maybe part of it is already recorded in their intuition?
Great content! I'm new in Carcassonne and not many players playing competitively in my country! so glad I know your channel from MSO 2021, thank you I learned a lot!
btw, about the video quality, I think the audio is mono? when I listen using a headphone I only hear from the left side
Thank you, I am happy you are learning from my videos! I will check the audio carefully for the next video, thank you for pointing this out.
you recorded your audio in mono and forgot to put it to left and right when editing😅 good video very entertaining and interesting
Hi Alexey,
The video is great including the sound quality. I have a question about the move pinder_tron made with the curved road (with 47 tiles remaining ). Should pinder_tron not have used it to try to start creating a block on those two monasteries at the top? Or would it be too costly to try it (too many turns?) and that's why he went and built on the road. It looks strange that he helps build around the opponent's monasteries. I guess pinder_tron did not use it to try to restrict the opponent's city (top left) because he would be potentially blocking two of his own meeples (his road + monastery) for the sake of blocking just one meeple of the opponent.
Thank you for your comment! On one hand, he helps his opponent a bit, but he helps himself more. With the move in the game, green is adding 3 points to himself (1 monastery point + 2 road points) and only 1 point for his opponent. Also, after this move he is controlling two opponent's monastery meeples with his one road meeple. This means that black is likely to add one further point to green's road when completing his monasteries (and this is what happened later in the game).
A blocking attempt from above would be too low-probability, because there still 3 crfr (starting) tiles still in the game, so it's not possible to create an unfillable hole. And the curve is too useful in that situation to spend on a blocking attempt. If pinder_tron drew a more suitable tile for blocking, e.g. cccf, then I think he would go for the block.
@@AlexeysCarcassonneChannel Thank you. Do you not think it was a mistake of 71st not to claim the straight road that he put on top of his two monasteries just before the move I mentioned above? You said it would be 'too dangerous', is it really?
@@concord2546 It's a close call. I don't think either way is a big mistake. "Too dangerous" was probably not the best choice of words. I meant "not worth the risk". All 8 road dividers are still in the game, and in total there are 16 tiles with which green can prevent the road connection in one move. I didn't calculate the odds properly but in my estimation, there is about 35% chance of successful connection if you claim the road, definitely well below 50%. However, I wouldn't play the move in the game, if I were black. I would just claim the 6-point road at the bottom right and wait for a better tile to continue my monasteries with.
Нет звука в правом ухе
Beutiful chanel bro
Thank you!