Election results: why the exit polls matter | Election 2024 | New Statesman
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- Опубликовано: 3 июл 2024
- “When that exit poll drops at 10pm you can be relatively confident you’re looking at the actual result”.
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Ben Walker joins Hannah Barnes and Rachel Cunliffe on the New Statesman podcast to discuss what to look out for during the general election results coverage overnight - including when we might find out whether Keir Starmer has become the next Prime Minister, and how bad the scale of defeat is for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives.
Read more: The 13 constituencies to watch, by Ben Walker and Finn McRedmond www.newstatesman.com/politics...
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The UK general election is taking place on July 4, 2024 - and the New Statesman is with you every step of the way. Our journalists including Hannah Barnes, Andrew Marr, Rachel Cunliffe, Freddie Hayward and Ben Walker have brought you analysis of the Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Green and Reform election campaigns as well as the best polling analysis and reaction from around the UK.
The 2024 election will be the biggest shake-up of UK politics in years. Subscribe to the New Statesman on RUclips to stay informed.
Watch all the latest episodes of the New Statesman podcast here: • The New Statesman Podcast
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The New Statesman brings you unrivalled analysis of of the latest UK and international politics. On our RUclips channel you’ll find insight on the top news and global current affairs stories, as well as insightful interviews with politicians, advisers and leading political thinkers, to help you understand the political and economic forces shaping the world.
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Keir Starmer hasn't turned anything round, the conservative party have thrown it all away!
The only thing Starmer as changed is his mind and will do if elected
Keir Starmer has LOWER popularity than Corbyn! This swing has nothing to do with him, and everything to do with the complete and utter failure of the Conservatives over the last 14 years.
💯👍
In your view …
@@JP-jz4uq And in mine!
114 seats for the Conservatives? NOT GOOD ENOUGH! ZERO SEATS IS WHAT WE NEED!
And fill with labour and lib Dems? My god...
@@gracchi132 One at a time
@@gracchi132 I understand but the Conservative party aren't the answer.
@@gracchi132WOW, you can count all the way up to _three_ when counting parties! Did you bother looking at your voting slip? There were more than 3 parties on there!
@@gracchi132 Yes, after 14 years of normalising the rightwing ideology, Labour majority with Lib Dem opposition sounds wonderful to me. Restore some decency and progressive values.
Here's the sleep guide, don't nap, get up at 7 and look at the results 😂
I'm not going to bed until I see a Tory 'big beast' lose their seat 😁
It's not fair to put Labour's success down to their efforts. It has significantly more to do with the Conservatives' failures.
Boris's success had a lot to do with Labour's failures too.
Tories trying to take credit for something that's actually good
Its got nothing to do with wanting Starmer to be PM, folk want rid of the tories and hes the only alternative.
there are other parties or did you forget?
@@jendrizzyy I know that, but none of those leaders will have the chance to become PM.
@colinmathie2710 no thanks keep your labour
We’re doomed
REFORM
The Tories fell on their own incompetence and greed. Liz, Boris, Cameron, Sunak, etc...what a crew...for the wealthy only! Let everyone else eat canned spam and noodles
..and Labour will be exactly the same. Favouring their own types, not the working man,
@@yvettedavis2256 but they wont will they. well hopefully not. no government in history has been as corrupt as the tories have been. Theyve done dreadfully on EVERY single issue in 13 years
Labour will do far worse…5 years of a lot of discord
Totally agree , but I love spam
Tories prefer us to eat Own Brand Spam & Noodles
Starmer didn't do well the Tories committed suicide
Sour grapes really suit you.
Thanks to the magic of time zones, the exit poll will come out at 9am on Friday. Luckily, most in my office work from home that day, so I'll still be able to have a cheeky beer as the results come in.
Too many chances given to a party of complete arrogance and greed. Out of touch and out of time.
You've prompted me to remember I've got a whole bottle of Baileys, and Kitkats ! Fun times.
spicy pizza with extra cheese for me
Don't forget to buy Rennie too 😂
Really after truss stepped down there should have been an election Sunak was borrowed time for partygate
The most successful Party in the Western World is the Swiss Radical Party, in power since 1848. Under the Swiss Referendum System, introduced in 1874, they lost a referendum in 1918, which forced the introduction of electoral reform. Their response has been to increase their coalition gradually to more and more parties. The Canadian Federal Liberal Party has dominated Canadian politics since 1867, being in power the vast majority of the time, including for some continuous stretches of over 25 years.
The Tories don´t even come close.
the liberals are most definitely not more successful than the tories
I completely agree. Two parties, one problem: We need diverse representation to truly reflect the nation and foster real compromise and progress. Time for a change!
The system is really unfair. We should have Proportional Representation. They need to give people what they want. First past the post is outdated.
Don't be silly.
We aren't French.
Do you think either the Labs or Cons would agree to a change of electoral system? Would they hell ! Both parties feel entitled to rule forever and see Westminster as their own private members club. Allowing us a General Election is just to fool the gullible public into thinking they have a democratic choice.
@@stephfoxwell4620 It isn’t that, but the first round does allow for first preferences to come first before strategic voting in the second.
@@stephfoxwell4620 You do understand that the 100 years war was basically france-on-france using the aboriginal brits as cannon fodder? And Napolean was just a stuid plonker - something that can seemingly happen to any nation... Don't hate on the French - they can't help it! Or are you still sore about the metric system and decimalisation?
@@ross7926 I was more thinking of the ludicrous volatility and hatred the French have for each other.
The absence of national cohesion.
Similar to what you see in Italy.
Petty regionalism and small minded parochialism.
Graphic in the Polling Report that everybody gets so excited about, shows that 40% of the vote for Labour = 418 seats ,where as 20% for the Tories = 114 seats, 33% of the vote for SNP = 23 seats whilst 11% of the vote for the LD = 63 seats, yet 16% of the vote for Reform = 6 seats !! And somehow Electoral Reform isn't on the agenda of any of either Labour or the Tories. Another MInority government with over ⅔ of the seats in Parliament, but less than 50% of the votes cast. Our "democracy" is totally screwed up.
You're getting confused with a 2 party system.
System with 5+ parties will frequently be under 50% for winner. Basic maths.
To become an MP you need the most votes for the constituency. Not just some low amount of votes that go into a bonus pot for bargaining with later. You need to have the most to get elected as an MP. Simple.
Perhaps Nigel should have more popular policies if he wants more seats.
Also your comment shows you don't understand UK electoral system because it doesn't work on overall percentages. Google is useful for basic research.
Look up how MPs are elected, so people vote for their chosen MP (rightly so), and research the concept of 'seats'. Then you'll start to understand. Percentages have nothing to do with it, rightly so.
@@bardsamok9221So it’s not a representative Democracy, it’s just an English and Belarusian version of it. Such fine company. You don’t understand the term Representative Democracy. The power should reflect the
values of the majority of voters.
Percentages DO matter, it is our system that’s broken.
@@bardsamok9221I understand it all to well. It’s fine of the society of the 1920s, but Britain’s has become far more eclectic since then yet our electoral system sadly still resides back in the early 20th Century.
The UK’s electoral system and system of governance needs to reflect the post Empire modern society that the UK has become.
Why do you guys title your podcast and youtube versions differently? It is confusing for people who use both mediums. I regularly think I am watching a new episode only to realise I've already listened to it.
I agree with that. I just clicked on it, only to realise I just listened to it...
Agreed! Love the channel, this is a simple fix to make a big difference 😊
That’s probably why they do it! 😂
Why vote for a party who want an Australian pension system, a system that means tests the state pension. Reform would mean a very unfair pension system, more private health insurance, more tax cuts for the already wealthy and misery for the sick and unemployed.
BOLLOCKS.
@@norrielivingstone4475 What Norrie said
Exactly. Reform are a cult set up to steal from the poor and make millionaires and billionaires even richer
Who has the power to change first past the post other than whoever won the election? It's never going to change.
Or maybe in the future if we have people in power who are more interested in behaving ethically than in just following their addiction to power regardless of doing the ‘right thing’.
Do you think either the Labs or Cons would agree to a change of electoral system to P.P? Would they hell ! Both parties feel entitled to rule forever and see Westminster as their own private members club. Allowing us a General Election is just to fool the gullible public into thinking we have a democratic choice! So, yes, I do agree. BUT HERE IS AN IDEA .....
If a case was made to the European Court of Human Rights (so beloved of Labour) on behalf of the millions of people who are denied their democratic right to be represented in Parliament, surely they would have to agree to the case. Because every single member of the European Union and members of ECHR MUST practice a democratic system of election and all European countries have Proportional Representation.
We had a referendum in 2011 on an alternative to first past the post. Nick Clegg got the tories to agree to it when they were forming the coalition government. So if we ever get a situation like that again (ie. a minor party has to prop up a major one) we might have a chance. But the fact the country voted to retain first past the post means governments can say that issue was resolved.
@@theinngu5560 human nature precludes that unfortunately.
@@beverleymacca4737 Thank you, Beverley.
There is a common misconception (or a more cynical misrepresentation) that the UK has already held a referendum to implement proportional representation (PR). Advocates of the First Past the Post argue that there is little desire to change the current voting system to proportional representation due to the failed referendum in 2011. However, the 2011 referendum was to change the voting system to the Alternative Vote (AV), not proportional representation. And the number of votes represented only a small percentage of the population.
You had me until Starmer turning around the party to double the vote without acknowledging uncertainty or indeed the conservative collapse as factors - it was just paper thin narrative.
"Starmer has turned around the party..." honestly you are so highly paid, this is just embarrassing.
I don’t know if the party was totally turned around, but Corbyn was definitely heading in a different direction. Under Corbyn it would be unthinkable for me to vote for Labour, but Starmer makes it a somewhat reasonable option. So perhaps not “around” but definitely “turned a corner”
@@MrShikaga yes I didn't support Corbyn but it can be interesting to find what people's reason is for strong opposition to him because very often it is based on headline lies. Why exactly could you not vote for him?
@@ScandalUK quite simple really, he was too soft on Russia. He blamed NATO for the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 and refused to criticise Putin for poisoning people on British soil. Given the Russian meddling in our elections, I was very much not in favour of anyone who was soft on Putin.
Obviously I couldn’t have known this in 2019, but given his subsequent comments, I am so glad he was not Prime Minister during Russias 2022 invasion, as he had been very vocal that we should let Russia invade Ukraine if they want to. Say what you will about BoJo, but he immediately knew that what was happening was wrong, and that Britain should do what she could to support the victim
@MrShikaga Tell me you don't care what's true without telling me you don't care what's true. I didn't particularly like him either but that is ridiculous.
@@wizardaka what do you mean? What isn’t true?
Please let there be a MASSIVE Labour majority and Tories l gone for a generation.
God help us
Probably the main thing I hope Starmer does is finally bring the reform to the voting system that's utterly unfit for purpose and should have been modernized decades ago. FPTP is a system that almost every other European country has long ago abandoned. Labour need to make sure that a destructive, incompetent government like this one can never be in power again. The country is in an utter shambles and a decent, fair voting system would have brought the Tories out of government years ago
May we call the SNP by their party name, rather than by the lazy BBC-speak “Scottish Nationalists” please
Only Brits would engage in spirited conversations about alcoholic beverages on election night. 🍻 Greetings from the Netherlands! 🇳🇱
Sunak can't understand why he's so unpopular and that in itself is the problem
Have really enjoyed the New Statesman coverage of election on RUclips. 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Can anyone explain how in a election that is supposed to be private instead of waiting for the official results every media company not only asks voters their vote but actually tell them who to vote for(i.e.The Sun). Today news media had photos of Steamer and sunak as if both of them had a right to win, yet no phots of all the other parties who were in the polls.No one should have a right to comment on the possible results until all the votes have been counted and the winner result has been declared.That would be a private election.
As a viewer from across the pond I must admit I have lost my comprehension of UK politics since the demise of Mock the Week.
Blame wokery. You can't mock anyone anymore
Count Binface for PM!
It's political correctness gone mad! You can't even put excrement through your neighbour's letter box any more
Already watched the full projection breakdown. Great work.
How many seats depend on postal votes which have not gone out? If the margins are as low as 2000, they will be critical.
Reform are not expecting to get many MPs elected, this is just the start of the movement. Farage has always said that the process of building a party that will seriously challenge the status quo at the next general election 👍
@@andrewstevens7453 You spelt Any with an M.
Just had a 4 hour nap, should cover me for tonight, it's now 20:40 :D
Always very important that people vote. I was brought up in a leftist political family to be fair but in every country that has the vote, someone actually fought for the right of the people to have that vote. PR would be better in the UK but small steps…
Britain needs Reform
It seems at some polling stations in Glasgow the staff have told voters to put numbers like 1-6 on the voting slip in order of their preferences ..
Both candidates represent the elite not the great suffering British people!
Please don't dismiss the problem with postal votes. I live in Spain and I didn't receive my vote until last Thursday. Due to Brexit post between Spain and the UK normally takes 2 weeks. I don't expect my vote to be counted.
Lol... the British love jumping from one frying pan into another frying pan. Good luck UK.
Who else put in a holiday request for the 5th but had it rejected due to short notice?
I wish you’d leave the results on screen longer - give us chance to read it through properly and think about it.
its not rocket science you freeze the screen to read it by hitting the space bar, or clicking on your screen...durr
I like this channel, glad I came across it
You cannot give Starmer credit for any turn around in Labour result, it's down to the collapse of the Tories plus rise of Reform and expected low turn out of voters 😮
Exactly. And it is hardly a turn around, more a return to the Blair motorway after Corbyn grabbed at the wheel and made everyone panic
Oh I dunno Corbyn would still have lost this election
Not so much turned it round, but given to Media nothing to throw at him. Try as they did.
How would the defeat be traumatizing it's been predicted for months now.
Starmer, linked to the cia and wef. He is the last person this country needs.
@apollo more globalists
I always used to vote but then I woke up at about age 50 to all our sellout politicians. It's so pathetic that now I've got to totally waste my vote now because all the parties are so sickening weak & won't do anything at all to make our country any better. I'm actually more interested in the American presidential results now than our yellow politicians in the UK. 🏴🎚️
What about all the independents?!
The next meeting of the 1922 committee will be held on a motorbike and sidecar
Desperdados tequilla beer for me and a shot of Fireball and Ice for when the results roll in. I'm a Labour voter traditionally, but voting Green for the first time and watching this total carnage.
😅😅😅
Are pollsters forgetting that almost half of voters might not have the right ID?
Who doesn’t have either a driver’s license or a passport?
@@db7541actually I did speak to two people today, low income family, want to vote but have no id.
That's quite excessive to say half. The only data we have is from local elections in 2023 which are obviously far lower in turnout, but around 14000 people couldn't vote due to not having ID. I'm strongly against the ID requirement, and it's appalling that those 14000 were disenfranchised, but we're not even remotely talking about half of the electorate here. A provisional drivers licence is sufficient and you can bet that most people who want to be able to drink once they turn 18 have one of those.
@@db7541 Probably more likely to affect Reform and Tory voters...they don't have passports because travelling overseas involves meeting with dirty "forreners" and why would they want to leave their home village by driving a car?
@@db7541I currently do not have either! Due to my passport going out of date and not driving, there’s more of us out there! Including thousands of younger and elderly voter
But I did a postal vote
Its the 4th July, Its BINDEPENDENCE DAY
I absolutely love your data scientist, I could listen to him all day. Smashing elucidation for us laypeople.
I have yet to receive my postal vote, sent to me 10 June. Live in Germany. Asked LA four times.
0:25 Lol
Why are these presenters playing guessing games about poll numbers? I want to see intelligent analysis of the facts about our society and the things that impact us. For example, the unequal distribution of resources, opportunities and wealth.
Just voted and I walk out with the biggest grin on my face. My blue british shorthair would be proud. Not had a drink since 2018 and I might treat myself to half a Guinness tomorrow.
Pointless comment
What because you say so? Pick up what you just dropped... too late now the flies are on it.
It will be interesting to see how the predictions tally up to reality. Was hoping that the Conservatives would be in third or forth place.
1:09 worse even than when the Whigs wouldn't let them in the building?
13 seats for Reform?
Don't be ridiculous.
Re - “PR” every country it is enabled in is in political crisis and has been for 50 years…
Now… I do like the French system
Reform will get more than 6. Stay tuned.
See you back here at eight in the morning?
I don’t think you can attribute the change in seats to Starmers ability to change the Labour parties fortunes but to the Tories ability to destroy themselves!
Reform uk
You got no form, you got no seats lol
Felt good to vote labour knowing they actually have a chance ahah
If it feels good, then you have inhaled something.
Vote Reform
You can shout it from the rooftops but it won't get you many seats 😂
Reform UK Ltd is a limited liability company, not a public limited company (PLC) at 2:07 If I knew that, why didn't you? I rely on people like you to tell me things I don't know but when you get things wrong that I do know how am I supposed to know that I can trust you?
VOTE REFORM
Surely 1831 was the Tories worst ever defeat - and will remain so even after tomorrow’s result. Do some research.
Ah yes - the wonderful 1930s just before we really got warmed up..
In modern times innit bruh lol
You haven’t talked about how much the red tories are dangerousl
Labour may get a massive majority but probably on less than 40% of votes. No overriding in truth mandate for the next 5 years. PR Now! Starmer can expect determined resistance from tomorrow. Reform is a popular movement which will grow and grow. This is only the start. No merging with the Tories. Sonething better and new, encouraging realignment of UK politics.
Never trust a prediction and dude the correct English word is "Something" not "Somethink"
Like for the VK
Reform reform NOT LABOUR reform reform all the way
I doubt it Geoffrey
Let’s make Westminster wobble vote Reform
If you do not believe in any of the parties, please use your democratic right not to vote !!
You should still spoil your paper 😉 none of the above!
Poor Rishi it’s cos he didn’t have sky as a kid…
Vote Labour.
...if you want war and poverty.
JUST A FREAKING GIGGLE EH ?
6uild 6ack 6etter..🤔😱
Starmer will presumably vote for himself, but who the heck else will vote for him? The mind boggles.
Pretty certain Sunak won't vote tory - he's trying his very best to lose. No billionaire wants to be stuck as PM during a war
A significant number of his constituents, Beverly.
@@ScandalUK Yes, he doesn't want to be a war leader
I'm more surprised that anyone would look at the last 14 years and vote Tory.
Starmer hasn't turned around anything, lol. It's a Tory batting collapse.
Got to dispute Hannah Barnes saying this is a really extraordinary achievement for Kier Starmer. It's easy to run up the score in FPTP when the opposition is this fragmented. Starmer is headed for more than Blair seats on solidly five percent less than Blair vote share, even a couple of points behind Corbyn 2017 vote share. If Labour's coordination with the LibDems yields a significant gain in tactical voting, then, yes, that deserves some credit, but the proof in the pudding will be how much they're able to squeeze the combined Tory-Reform vote.
Exactly starmer is winning by default
Rishi will again win
0 hopefully
Independence from Tories
Reform may not get into power this time round but after 5 years of labour the next election will almost certainly see Reform become huge. Brace yourselves for five years of misery, poverty and ridiculous numbers of immigrants under labour. Reform Uk are our only hope of breaking the cycle of destroying Britain ! Reform Uk 2029 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧
Reform getting into power would certainly prove how much damage the Tories have done to education.
Just voted for Reform UK. If you haven’t voted yet please get to your polling station and vote for Reform UK. Nobody wants a Labour government but they do want t to give Nigel Farage as much support as possible. Please get out and vote for Reform UK. Thank you! 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Can't vote for trump supporting reality TV stars 😅
Liebour haven't won the Tories just died .
Clacton is the luckiest town in the country
Stop the Goats!
Is that cuz they don't have a dolphin standing for a seat? That would frighten farridge
Everyone I know and apparently most of the people they know are voting reform so it will be interesting .
I have watched this video and what is the Reform problem? Mentioned , I would of thought Labour is a problem or Green parry or now Conservative why Reform ?
But everyone I know and everyone they know and most of the people they know are not voting reform so it might not be interesting
@@smrriles5668 I take it they don't work for a living as the labour party has done nothing for the working man in the last 50 years and the other parties are all woke.
Reform want a means tested pension system as Australia has, they want more private health insurance, more tax cuts for the already wealthy, more misery for the sick, disabled and unemployed, these miseries can happen to you or one of your family.😢
@jillkemp5521 Labour will make people pay more in taxes so you will pay more for NHS anyway.
I do agree the pension system needs change bit we need to educate the youth at school about finances .
Remember Starmer hates the Unions ( the working man) as he has proved in the past he is just a conservative with a red tie.
So you know how much to cheat and rig it
NCSWIC NOTHING
Houchen?????????
You need to get out of your bubble
Reform 🎉🎉🎉
It is Brexit wot done it.
It doesn't matter who wins.karma is a bit wet.sunak brighter and makes more sense but his colleagues are crappy.idont care which of them loses they won't be helping anyone who needs it...
Reform are hot gas
They are the only party who want the best for our future yet the blind vote for Labour who illegally took us to war and yes, I was in both wars, I will never forgive them for that and won’t ever forgive tories for pulling us out of Afghan so my friends died in vain
Hi Biscuit, my beef is the lack of true democracy. Pls read on.
Do you think either the Labs or Cons would agree to a change of electoral system to P.P? Like every single European country has. Would they hell ! Both parties feel entitled to rule forever and see Westminster as their own private members club. Allowing us a General Election is just to fool the gullible public into thinking we have a democratic choice!
So, e.g. Reform get multi-millions of votes but perhaps only 2 or 3 seats. They have no real representation for millions of people. There may be 2 parties but, in reality, the public have no more democracy than the Russian voters have.
I just passed some hot glasses 💨
Gasses* 😂
reform are not a plc - they are a limited company
No body knows nothing its speckerlations all should keep quiet
Speckerlations???
Can I ask?
Local elections, Reform Reform Reform,
Then in the actual results, next to nowt.
Reform polling still way over inflated?
Reform still time to vote.
Going over after tea to vote Reform.
Tons, millions of voters are voting for Reform .. like the rest of MSM you are not picking this up.
Yeah right 🤣🤣🤣