Housing Market Crash 2024: Why Hasn't It Happened Yet? (The Only 3 Things Holding It Up)
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 16 апр 2024
- The Housing Market has been held up by 3 very strong Supply Constraints even though demand has weakened substantially. In this video, we'll talk about what those 3 Supply Constraints are, how to monitor them, and what it means for the Housing Market in 2024 and beyond.
Thank you to Moomoo US for partnering with us today: 5.1% APY+3% APY booster + Up to 15 Free Stocks: j.moomoo.com/00GbBd
Please subscribe, turn on the notification bell 🔔, and share this video with your network.
--------Key Resources---------
1.) My Wealth Building Community (through Active Investing/Trading) on Substack (Over 22,000+ Public Readers): larrycheung.substack.com/
2.) My Favorite Trading Brokerage (on Interactive Brokers where I trade Equity Options and Futures): www.interactivebrokers.com/mk...
3.) Twitter ( @LarryCheungCFA) / larrycheungcfa
4.) My Instagram: / larrycheungcfa
My Substack Newsletter Instagram: / letters_from_larry
5.) Seeking Alpha (Public Company Overviews): seekingalpha.com/author/larry...
📚Educational Guides:
Educational Guide for Scalping: larrycheung.substack.com/p/ed...
Educational Guide on Intermediate-Term Investing: larrycheung.substack.com/p/ed...
📚Mag7 DCF Model Analysis
1.) Apple: larrycheung.substack.com/p/22...
2.) Amazon: larrycheung.substack.com/p/22...
3.) Microsoft: larrycheung.substack.com/p/22...
4.) Nvidia: larrycheung.substack.com/p/sp...
5.) Google: larrycheung.substack.com/p/35...
6.) Meta: larrycheung.substack.com/p/34...
7.) Tesla: larrycheung.substack.com/p/22...
DCF Library: larrycheung.substack.com/t/dc...
------------------------------------------
Personal Growth Video that I think you will enjoy: • 4 Things I wish I knew...
Linkedin (Come follow me): / larrycheung
Patreon (Exact same as Substack Investment Community - Please join on Substack if New member): / larrycheung
-------
Thank you to my data partner YCharts: get.ycharts.com/resources/blo...
--------
*Social Media Reminder: Do not fall for scammers & impersonators who pretend to be me.
Educational Guides for my Community:
📚Scalping: larrycheung.substack.com/p/educational-guide-intraday-scalping
📚Intermediate-term Investing: larrycheung.substack.com/p/educational-guide-how-to-leverage
I only have one question, Larry. Which will lose more value in the next five to ten years? The USD (upon the next printing spree) or the house? I'm guessing it's the $. Both could lose 50% or more, but the house has a much greater chance of regaining value. The USD might gain purchasing power for a while, but it'll be a dead cat bounce. So yeah. Hard assets. Metals. Real Estate. Land.
Keep in mind that during the 80’s people were encouraged to save due to the interest rates. Right now there’s very little incentive to save because those who are saving are watching those who are reckless taking it in. I’ve been trying to save for a home and it’s been discouraging to watch prices continue to not budge because there’s people willing to get into a mortgage where they’re paying 40% of their income. It’s insane.
The housing market in 2024 poses difficulties due to uncertainties about the Federal Reserve's ability to curb inflation and reduce borrowing costs without adversely affecting demand for assets like homes and automobiles.
Consider shifting from real estate to stocks during severe recessions. While market volatility presents short-term trading opportunities, it's crucial to approach with caution. This isn't financial advice, but investing during such times may be a strategic move, consider adopting the services of a financial expert.
The best market strategy is to work with a credible investing coach. Since a while ago, I've been in touch with a coach, mostly because I lack the depth of understanding and mental toughness to deal with the ongoing market conditions. You lack the information necessary to succeed in a competitive market, not because you're doing anything wrong, but rather because of your lack of experience.
@@emmaarmandoCan you suggest the financial expert you've been using? It appears you've had success with their guidance.
@@emmaarmandoMind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .
Precise asset allocation is crucial, with some employing hedging strategies or allocating to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for success. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, yielding almost $1 million in investment returns.
in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of loss.
“Tenley Megan Amerson” is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
Is it worth using a 7 yr forgivable assistance loan ?that way I can stop renting and still have 4 months of expenses in savings at closing.
Larry is right, the other ancillary expenses of owning a home; real estate taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA fees are becoming staggering. Even if a retiree is fortunate enough to own their home outright, these runaway expenses will chew up a fixed income budget quickly.
Any mass financial problem will result in bailouts for homeowners. printed money, they can tax.
What is a real estate tax?… you mean property tax?
Excellent analysis and that's exactly what's happening -- developers are building apartment complexes. I see it everywhere here in the Northeast. I also see ridiculously high asking prices for existing homes and they are simply not selling.
Money is not meant to control people, rather it is meant to be put to work producing more money for you. You cannot build wealth without putting money in its rightful place.
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian.
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
Nice video, again
During the Great Wealth Transfer the bequeathed estates will be sold for very high valuations but due to the increase in renters, the risk assets will continue to be debased.
There isn’t really a supply issue. It’s the hogging of supply from investors. Which will continue to push to be a problem as it creates disparity between the rich and poor. Big polarization between families who can and can’t raise families to the American dream standard is a threat to the government which will be forced to change this. Either through policy or interest rate hikes. Sooner or later the bubbles gotta pop and rents have to match incomes
raise taxes on non-owner occupied houses, force the corporate landlords to sell.
what about supply constraint since existing homeowners cannot afford new loans at high rates when they are enjoying low rates from past 15 years before the interest rate hike? what is the statistics on this factor
Most apartment developers are "merchant builders." They build, stabilize (lease-up), and sell. They don't stay in the investment to collect long term rental income. They typically get bought out by REITs, pensions funds, etc. With that said, it is very hard to make new apartment projects pencil in the current environment, with a 50-year peak in supply holding down rents. The projects delivering today were started years ago in the ZIRP (zero interest rate period) when project economics where vastly different.
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Contemplate shifting your investments from real estate to other dependable options such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, or precious metals. Severe recessions present potential buying opportunities in the market, but it's essential to approach them cautiously due to the volatility that can provide short-term trading possibilities. While not offering financial advice, it could be prudent to consider investing, given that holding onto cash may not be ideal during this period.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Melissa.
Your chart @ 4:23 is investor sales being at 26%, NOT ownership. So they are buying ~26% in Q1 2024, but they are still a small percentage of owners, overall.. it almost felt like you are saying investors own 26% of low-priced homes, which i believe is close to just 2%, overall OWNED by investors.. thoughts?
Also, you cite climate change for increasing insurance costs. Inflation means it takes more to replace or rebuild a damaged house or car, and that means insurance costs correlate..
We have a lot of small rent only home builders.
But when interest rates drop, many home owners who didn't sell because of their low interest rate mortgages will be more inclined to sell so that will increase market supply and therefore reduce home prices as demands will continue to be low despite lower interest rates given the continued increase in debts held by Americans
But those people who sell would most likely also need to buy which means supply increases, but demand also increases essentially cancels out. Unless the majority of the sellers are looking to rent, move in with relatives, or own multiple homes.
Those who would care about the interest rate means they would be selling and buying another home, so per the first reply, supply and demand don't shift much. Those who don't care about the interest rate, aka not looking to buy after selling, would just sell now.
I agree with the two responses above and would add that it’s likely that home prices will hold up and possibly increase.
Homeownership rate has already dropped 20 bps from its recent high. Which is equivalent to around 500k households. Expected to continue falling.
As far as home builders pivoting towards multi family. Not true. Most SFH developers don’t operate in multi. Multifamily has exploded in popularity because of the fundamentals and availability of cheap debt which isn’t available to SFH developers.
Honestly all the former bears like Larry flipping bullish on the housing market makes me think things might take a turn.
I'm favoured, $22K every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless America,,
I may ask how you manage to earn so much..., what are your strategies??
Since meeting Expert Maria, I now agree that
an expert managing your portfolio, the
rate of profit is high, with less risk.
AS!! I know it's possible, I'd appreciate it if you showed me how to do it.
So you guys know her too?...
she made my husband and l have our own house and car.
She is good! 👌
I keep hearing a lot about Ms. Maria Martinez, must be really good
The law of supply and demand still applies. We have a shortage of housing between 2M-6M units. Until that resolves, housing prices overall, are not going anywhere. Oh, and since rent hasn't kept up with home prices, expect rent to go up.
With 15.1M empty houses and historically weak population growth (immigration included) in the past few decades, there is no shortage of housing. Note that it's called supply and *demand*. Supply may be low, but demand is at multi decades lows as well. It won't take a big jump in supply to get the ball rolling down.
A record number of rental units are coming online in the near future. In many markets, rents are already lower than mortgage payments are.
Great😮
"what happens when one stops producing?"
The building of apartments benefits only from volume. To build a house costs $275-$350 per square foot. The low is $250 and you would be hard pressed to fine it that low. Module homes is where it’s at.
Sorry, but taxes/insurance aren’t going to be what causes housing to go down. The only thing that threatens housing prices is unemployment. We don’t have the same interest rate schemes we did 20 years ago on homes. Everything is fixed, and most owners are below 4% interest rates. If we have a recession that pushes unemployment above 8-10%, that could open up a correction. But until that happens, expect housing to stay high.
And even that might not be enough. I still watch these dipshits in my local MSA bid $80k over on a bucket of shit house, just because they’re afraid of missing out. Paying $650k for a house that hasn’t received any major upkeep and maintenance since the Nixon administration. So long as that sort of insanity exists, homes will stay extremely valuable.
if there is a crash, you will see it in places with the highest appreciation first
Unemployment is the main threat. But note that taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs are not fixed. In addition, a record amount of properties are owned by investors and speculators. Those represent another domino.
Im in insurance, people on fixed incomes can afford their taxes and insurance anymore.
Id argue that if the recession hits, even a mild one, it might actually save housing. Right now the Fed is holding rates higher for longer. This means that all those rental properties, both single family and apartments, will need to have the debt rolled over at higher levels. Once that happens people will not be able to afford rents that allow the debt holders to service those loans. If a recession hits, the Fed may cut rates preventing those loans being rolled over at rates that cant be serviced.
That means massive foreclosures and banks tightening lending even more. Both of those push down on single family home prices long term. Do I think it will be a 2008 crash, no. Maybe a 15% down turn over a few years. But on the other side will be higher rates and if immigration is addressed, and aging and shrinking population.
Right now we are Japan 1990. Look what real estate did between 1980 and 2015 in Japan. That's what will happen here as well.
Multistory luxury apartment buildings are popping up all over here in Orange county California
When you say the housing market affordability will get crazier once the fed pivots, what do you mean??
Lower interest means higher prices.
@@uploadtime1780 but there will be more supply? I don’t understand.
@S0ulsinner More supply? Supply is creeping up now.. however we have an estimated 20 million "new arrivals", in the country with some states assisting on rent for them, we have inflation so building new is more cost prohibitive and that is causing existing houses to creep up in price, and if the fed pivots and lowers interest..... people will jump and go put house shopping again, fearful it may be their last chance at a lower rate.
@@uploadtime1780 there will be more sellers too..
@@S0ulsinner the people that are waiting for lower interest rates to sell are doing so because they want to buy their next home. One house is sold and another is purchased.
What's your take on how U.S. $34 trillion debt and the Soc Security deficit affects future investing strategy?
No housing crash coming.
Haha reading the ad. Nice.
My flood insurance tripled in one year. It’s ridiculous. Still wouldn’t sell though as I couldn’t buy another anyways at these prices.
They need to only allow corporations to be able to buy so many homes per county. They are monopolizing the market
Not really
People who own 2nd homes have more effect
American dream is over.
Thank the spending by congress
@@idiocracyishere4531 yup, but unfortunately some people think collecting more taxes will fix the problem. When the problem is government spending irresponsibly.
Yes, because Americans have woken up to global market shifts and its impact to local. Stop all the wars!
If it does happen it will take years for there to be a correction anyways. Worst time to buy a house.
I would also add the state and fed govts will not allow home price and property tax deflation. Free $, ubi, loan mods, eviction and foreclosure moratoria, mortgage forbearance, student debt forgiveness, 40 yr loans, $0 down fha loans,…this all means “home prices higher for longer”🤡
They said the same in 08 lol
Thanks to record government subsidies and spending, the cost of living will continue to rise faster than incomes will. People will increasingly have to choose between buying basic necessities and keeping up with housing costs. There is no free government cheese.
Two thousand eight happened because of loans made to unqualified people and lots of teaser resets. I agree the government's all took a big hit so they will make sure that supply is crushed so the prices do not fall.@@nonexistent5030
So many apartments been built around me😅
Folks have no idea what comes next. Next we get a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. Inflation is just the cherry on top. When ... when the yield curve reinverts. That is when.
Container homes , 3D printed homes , Tiny Homes is allllll coming onto market - we are shifting into a new paradigm
Nope, disruption to revenue stream to the rich will not allow any changes to benefit the general population unless it benefits the wealth. EG, solar and PGE.
3D printed homes are just as expensive and non-3D printed homes. The only one that saves is the builder. There were several 3-D printed homes that were made in California and they the builder saved a lot of money but the homes went up for sale for half a million dollars+ each.
Container homes and tiny homes are a joke. 3D printed homes will cost the same as non-3D printed homes.
RV living.
@@s.k.6616 im 33, I bought a piece of land for 3500, with electric and water easy to hook up nearby. I can buy a very nice toy hauler or 5th wheel or two for under 10k. My property tax is under 10$ a month and its zoned for RV living. my lot is 18,000 square feet, and I'm about to buy the land next to me and potentially the lot next to it for an addition 36,000 square feet. for a total of 54,000 square feet. I am never going to pay a half a million dollars for a house and get screwed over by maintenance fees. the housing market is just a bunch of debt servitude. Its a scam. ill wait 30 years if I have to for a 50% crash or more before I ever consider buying a house.
The crash is coming just have to be patient, it’s gona get bad this year
You wish 😊
You said the same thing in 2022 and 2023, im sure
I just don't understand why building your own home is incomprehensible to so many people
It all hinges on the unemployment rate…
$250-500 range is getting stung.
If government ever wants corporations to divest from rental properties, all they need to do is introduce a surtax on every property a person / corporation owns past the first X number of residential homes (1-4 units).
You present a false dichotomy between building SFHs or rental apartment buildings (which are typically not managed by the builder). Developers can and fo also build for-rent detached houses as well as for-sale condo buildings.
Aint no housing market crash coming. Foundation is solid.
Hedge funds who members are billionaires, corporations and politicians current and retired. These organizations are purchasing first time homes, with CASH. My neighbor sold her home to a family obtained a loan, not to a hedge fund who offered her $30,000.00 more.
I'm seeing price declines since we got inflation data. One was reduced by 22%. I'm waiting to see if someone jumps in and buys these homes or if they will reduce even further.
What area
@@Donkiko-bz1lv Alabama
@@Donkiko-bz1lv I live in Georgia. Things here are a lot more expensive with taxes being a lot higher. It would be nice to build a rental portfolio in Alabama and maybe retire there.
Thats the problem, people just need to chill for now dont jump in just yet.
Bro we are in May
And you are a bit out of scape
If you put these 3 conditions a year ago I will continue to follow you
It's mid April.
@@redfellow1 bro if you are taking today as reference for invesment god helps you all
Not enough supply!!!
Since 2000 housing units have grown by 25% but population growth has grown by 25% so therefore.... oh crap...
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there were 15.1 million vacant homes nationwide in 2022. Too many units being concentrated in too few hands thanks to speculators and investors. In addition, the U.S. population growth rate has fallen to its lowest rate in decades. Fewer births leads to fewer household formations and therefore lower demand for units.
@@toinengwyn3935 Births aren't the main source of population growth when you have an open border.
@@HisCoconutGun 1. Only immigration is keeping population growth barely positive ---but not high enough to soak up excess units. 2. How many immigrants can afford current R.E. prices?
@toinengwyn3935 Plenty of immigrants from India and China can afford real estate prices. And the ones that can't get government subsidized housing or pile 5 families into a single family home. Immigration isn't the only reason for the crazy market but it's certainly a factor.
@@HisCoconutGun Again, immigration is not going to soak up the excess units. Inn addition, foreign purchases of U.S. properties is prohibitively expensive when the dollar is strong against foreign currencies.
More families crowding into few units will not soak up excess units.
Yes, but that doesn’t mean collapse
This video has major error.
New single home building is UP while multi family housing starts are are DOWN.
This video says the opposite which is false.
Have a reference for that? Thank you. I lean more with Larry at this point.
(I am not relared with the channel or producer of this video)
You have really overthought this. Regarding the US market, you need millions of distressed sellers for there to be a crash. There are about 140 million housing units in the US. 42% have no mortgage. Of the 58% that have mortgages, 25% have a mortgage under 3%. 65% of all mortgages are under 4%. These people are not in a hurry to sell. What would they buy instead. going from 3.5% on your current mortgage to 7% on a new purchase effectively doubles your monthly payment. Most people are not going to do this. I have 26 or so properties and I don't see me selling anything in the foreseeable future. What I really take exception to is your first article. There are plenty of affordable homes accross the US. The headline should have been that 40% of renters don't think they will ever own a home "that they want to own." There are plenty of homes that they could own. Don't over think this. If the 30 year mortgage drops into the 5's% you will see a huge upswing in home prices in desirable locations adding to this cycle.
agreed, and saying 40% of renters don't think they will ever own a home doesn't mean there is no demand.
Financial security trumps fixed low rates. Layoffs continue to rise aggressively, and incomes continue to fall behind the cost of living. And, as the video pointed out, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs are not fixed. Having no mortgage still means that housing expenses are still rising.
Demand is so low today that it won't take a massive amount of distressed sellers to get the ball rolling. Back in 20087-2008, the failure rate of loans only had to tick up a few percentage points higher to send the market reeling.
If rates drop, it will be because the economy is in dire straits. Credit may be cheap, but few will be willing to borrow or lend.
@@toinengwyn3935 You need to do a whole lot of more data gathering on the real estate market. Most of what you said is incorrect. Although I would tend to agree that the cost of house (taxes, etc) will increase, it is a logical fallacy to say they will. Property taxes decreased after 2008. Demand is not low. It is quite high compared to available units for sale. The reason demand is lower than it naturally would be is because of the golden handcuffs of a 30 year low interest mortgage and the fact that you cannot sell your current house and even if you downsize, your monthly payment will be much more than you are currently paying. You can make an argument that incomes are falling, but that is geographical in nature. The government is showing that real wages are actually increasing, albeit slower than inflation. The current market is almost entirely caused by low interest fixed rate mortgages.
@@markpoultonsrules "You need to do a whole lot of more data gathering on the real estate market. Most of what you said is incorrect. "
What is incorrect? Golden handcuffs are only good as long as you can keep up with your current expenses -- generally through a steady stream of income that outpaces costs. Since 1973, average real wages have increased .7%. That is at best stagnant.
Per Fannie Mae, only 6% of current mortgage holders cited low interest rates as the reason for staying put.
Per the Fed and various studies, the vast majority of RE failures in the wake of the GFC occurred because of job losses and/or being upside down. In other words, you can't pay a fixed low rate with no income.
Housing and other living costs may fall in the future. But this would most likely require a major recession accompanied by severe job losses and deflation in asset prices, including RE.
Low demand is today is largely attributable to historically high prices while credit is no longer cheap or easy. Current sales are lower today than they were in 1999 despite the currently higher population. Interest rates were about the same or higher back then. But prices were a fraction of what they are now.
Hasn’t happened because the issue is supply, not rate
"Climate change"
I live in SoCal and can confirm my climate hasn't changed.
Move to Italy or country that has housing. The US doesn’t have enough homes and the quality is poor. Prices in US need to drop 30%. Other countries have plenty of housing and would be glad to have you.
But the crash is not happening ... Can you explain the 'fix rate mortgage with 30 years amortisation ...'. Is that true?
It's like the auto maker saw what student loans were doing and felt left out of the bankrupt American's trade. Buy a Tesla or a Toyota.
This is due to people overspending on houses that are excessively over inflated. It also has to do with government interference with “band aide policies” that throw things out of balance. Covid BAD policy also exacerbated this mess.
I like tall apartment buildings. Houses are money pits, and everyone knows it. I like to live in apartments and I would like to own one someday.
Go back to Korea if you want to live in a cyberpunk dystopia
Why Hasn't It Happened Yet? AKA why I was horribly wrong.
Unlike most, he has the strength to review himself and reposition his initial view. Learn something instead of criticizing. RTK and Dalio have been predicting huges crashes a few years ago, crushes that never occurred (yet).
A RE downturn is a process, not an event. Instant gratification is what gets people into trouble.
I'm a real estate agent. Housing market in Atlanta is still very HOT. 670k house in a top school district went on the market and over a weekend it received 60 offers. I would say house prices in Atlanta is still very cheap compared to other big cities. And I believe prices will continue to go up due to the very main reason, limited supply.
Yeah because all the rich own those homes now.
New home prices not falling. Builders build smaller homes with inferior finishes resulting in lower prices
Exactly.. Lennar is leading the way
I believe that nothing will happen until the CDBC's comes in. It may happen in the latter part of the year.
I'm debt free, been saving hard and collecting interest on that money, it's safe not in the market. I paid off my 8.5 ac land not a few months ago after I sold my crypto.
My 3 reasons home prices will crash:
1. AI and Robotics will slash new home prices dramatically.
2. Investors will be forced to sell by politicians, who will make their ownership illegal.
3. Boomer's estates will be looted by nursing homes leaving nothing for their heirs.
Of these, tech will be the biggest blindside as it always has been in the past.
Investors have destroyed the housing market
It's more complicated than he thinks
Property insurance in red states like Florida is no better than California.
And taxes...property taxes in FL are becoming outrageous
This no need to downsize three bed rooms.
Illegal migration exacerbates the shortage and also suppresses wages.
oof gonna be tough for this guys followers when they see he don’t got it like he thinks he got
decreasing population… over time will increase supply. this is a measured in decades tho, sadly
US population is not decreasing. Especially with all the illegal migrant immigration recently.
Good point, so in the long term, prices will go down, adjusted for inflation of course.
Can we talk about the damn flippers. Grrr
Clueless. Have they taken away the printing press? No chance for housing crash as long as USD can be printed.
Real estate thrives under demand-pull inflation (good economic times). We are experiencing cost-push inflation where the cost of everything is rising faster than incomes are. This does not help the RE market historically.
@@toinengwyn3935 So you mean like the 1970's? How did RE perform in the 1970's? You are clueless.
@@w3s77 I'd be indeed as clueless and blissfully ignorant as you are if I ignored that the fact that the economy, and the RE market, are very different from what they were 50 years ago.
Home buyers and the market are far more indebted today and therefore very susceptible to economic shocks (e.g. inflation and recession). See 2008 for a more recent example.
1. In the 70's, the real estate price to median household income ratio was never higher than 4.41. The price to income ratio is currently 7.61.
2. In the 70's, the savings rate was never below 9%. Today, it is below 4%.
3. In 1979, the average down payment was 25%. Today, the average down payment is closer to 10-15%. FHA loans represent a new form of subprime mortgages with down payments as low as 3%.
4. In the 1970's, banks kept mortgages on their books. Since the 2000's, lenders have heavily packaged and sold mortgages as tradable securities. Thus, RE has become highly speculative.
5. Today, owners treat their houses as investments rather than as shelter. Thus, a vast amount of debt has been taken out to establish AirBnb's, HELOC's, and hedge fund real estate portfolios.
@@w3s77 I would be indeed as blissfully ignorant as you are if I disregarded the fact that the economy, and the RE market, are very different from what they were 50 years ago. Home buyers and the market are far more indebted today and therefore very susceptible to economic shocks (e.g. inflation and recession). See 2008 for a more recent and applicable history lesson.
For example, the real estate price to median household income ratio was never higher than 4.41 in the 70's. The price to income ratio is currently 7.61. In 1979, the average down payment was 25%. Today, the average down payment is closer to 10-15%. FHA loans represent a normalized form of subprime mortgages with down payments as low as 3%. In the 70's, the savings rate was never below 9%. Today, it is below 4%.
@@toinengwyn3935 Labor prices, up, raw materials up, permit costs up, home prices up. It's almost impossible to have inflation without home price inflation, it's the largest portion of the CPI calculation. No chance inflation rips and home prices decline, it's mathematically impossible. Please read how CPI and Inflation are estimated and understand the portion RE represents.
The collapse already started where it ALWAYS does. Volume. Inventory is rising quickly now. Goodnight.
Yes, in Florida
Prices went up 8%. Bidding wars still common
@@timothygibney159 lol lowest sales since 1995 with highest inventory since covid
@@idiocracyishere4531 Phoenix Austin
raise taxes on non-owner occupied houses and airbnbs. force them to sell.
Im in St Augustine Florida, St. John County (right next to Jacksonville, oldest city in country) population has grown by 50% in the last 10 years. They are building new houses and apartment complexes at a staggering rate. Almost everything everyone says about other places do not apply here. Everyone is moving here. Its almost all wealthy northerners moving here too. Its a very expensive place to live. We don't have affordable places for the labor/teachers/cops etc. to live so we are building a bunch of affordable housing (1,000 sq ft or less homes) that emt/teacher/cop/county will get priority sales on. They need to quit building 350k+ houses and build WAY more 2 bed 1 bath neighborhoods like they just started building. Seems like we figured out we need it and have started building smaller but more affordable houses though. Long as all the dems moving here don't take their dumb ass policies with them that destroyed the places they were before, we will remain the shining house on the hill. Since DeSantis took over we went from purple to red and everyone is moving to Florida now. All the cops form NY quit the force there and are moving here for the $5,000 bonuses for cops and $45k starting salary with low crime rates. TGIF thank god I live in Florida. Our economy never even slumped from covid, we shut down for 2 weeks, within 2 months everyone said f it haha.
From your best guess, when would the crash actually happen? Early 2025 ?
2045
2031
@@jj-eo7bj😂
CFA must mean
Completely
Fooling
Around
Actually it’s the most difficult financial certification/designation to achieve. It’s more difficult than the bar exam and the CPA exam.
You’re all instructed to simply accept the schemes of a few thousand insiders. Or you could do a different kind of math…..
Mate you ve been doomsday too early too long
BABY BOOMER TYRANNY!
I'm favoured $130k every 4weeks! I now have a good house and can now afford anything and also support my family
Thanks to my co-worker (Alex) who suggested Claudia rea Lovell.
She's a licensed broker in the states 🇱🇷🇱🇷
After I raised up to 325k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states 🇺🇸🇺🇸 also paid for my son's surgery (Oscar). Glory to God.shalom .
Can't imagine earning $85,000 biweekly, God bless Claudia rea Lovell, God bless America 🇺🇸♥️
Yes she works with people all over the world, she's the best you can ever come across.
There is her line 👇👇👇
Being asian though, I think American housing is incredibly cheap by international standard. US housing is only 7x income when it's higher in Europe and even more ridiculous 30x in Asia. If Americans are complaining about this, then the rest of the world is in hell.
I think it's mainly the poor personal finance skills of ordinary Americans are to blame. Americans are far less frugal and spend far more irresponsibly compared to the rest of the world.
Asian countries with 100 year generational loans....European housing with insurance in the hundred per year vs US insurance in the 10's of thousands per year. etc. Your comparison is apples to automobiles. You're not even in the same food class of comparisons. Not that you're wrong about Americans being useless with money. But comparing US to other countries real estate is disingenuous. They are nothing alike.
Rental is sky high out of control, too. Blame on current administration of Bidenomic. The 4 years of democrat control caused economic spiral down fall.
We are starting to look like china, except that manufacturing jobs are mostly gone in the U.S. I pray for Trump to turn this situation around quickly.
Cool, looks like this time is different then. Congrats to all the housing bulls, you guys won. Time to go spend more on the economy with your sweet equity
Housing for captures or external workers was to be a push topic for Canada told to me at the time.
They said people would be making a push for this to be a sustainable option.
This becomes hard to sustain when one worker needs to sustain a family vs just taking in 1 person for the job.
Resources like food and other things don't get weighed in properly and advice from countries like Germany who have tried it.
"It dements force" it creates imbalance when looking at each person and the issue of fairness complicates things
Give values are declining in every state. These declines will continue for years.