Great timing. I live in NW DC. One thing the home price data doesn't include is HOA fees. I have seen HOA fees as high as $2,000 per month in certain luxury condos in DC. The other issue with DC is that when considering home prices and HOA fees, rents seem like a better deal in the nicer areas. Most homes will not cash flow, unless you go into PG county and SE DC.
Thank you for the comment! You make a great point about HOA fees and the buy v. rent decision. The lack of cash flow is a problem in a lot of markets right now.
Even here in Prince George's, cash flow is uncommon to rare, right now. There are a LOT of bad deals on the market which would be immediate alligators (read: feed with cash to keep them satisfied each month) for the inexperienced newbie who hasn't accurately tracked and accounted for the hefty operating costs.
I live in one of the DC metro area and my guess about the persistent permitting % is because developers have built out the easy, large tracts that are within a reasonable driving distance from DC, Tyson’s Corner, Reston, Arlington and other employment centers. So now new home customers have to choose between an expensive home really close in or drive for an hour and a half one way. There is a lot of infilling, rehabbing/flipping and teardown activity in the DC area. But those do not produce thousands of homes quickly. So it is a fairly steady process of creating additions to the housing stock.
I live in Fort Washington (Prince George's) and the sheer volume of higher-priced housing built on the east side of the city (i.e. end goal: gentrification) is pushing lower-priced (read: poor / crime elements) so far out of Southeast and Northeast DC and out of P.G. (mainly inside the Beltway) that the only people able to afford to live there anymore is the professional class. Again: eyes on the ground here, watching it happen. It's insane. Pretty soon, only well-established types are going to be able to afford to live here.
Yes indeed. I bought a 🏠 in 20743 zip code at the bottom in 2011 for $105K sold it for $270K in 2020. Moved back up to Baltimore Co & bought a cheaper 🏠 w/ almost 3Xs the space.
In the past DC has always been recession proof, inside the beltway. I enjoy your videos, the facts and analysis you provide seems very logical and solid. I live in Manassas, 30 miles out from DC.
GREAT VIDEO! Please do more of these. As an 11 year millennial resident in the DMV (Alexandria, VA) since 2010. I can tell you there has been a significant amount of growth and renovation in the District of Columbia particularly in NE, DC and SE DC Navy Yard Anacostia areas. There is an alarming amount of gentrification that pricing long time area residents out of the District proper into the surrounding areas of Maryland, namely PG county (the ones you listed for high growth). Even then there is alot of development centering around the National Harbor and MGM casino in the Oxon Hill / Fort Washington MD area. This is where you are seeing alot of the appreciation/growth, particularly in the 20032 area code. I think its also important to note the demographics of the areas you higlight to give people a more holistic view of the market. The areas on the East side of the city blue affordable /magenta high growth appreciation are areas predominantly populated with Black people. The areas on the West and Northwest side of the city magenta expensive /blue low growth appreciation are areas predominantly populated with White people. I think if you could add the specifics about the demographics to your videos that would be a great enhancement to add. Very helpful video Thanks!
I feel like your analysis is spot on. If you can afford the housing, DC is a great place to purchase if you want to shield yourself from volatility. My other takeaway from your video is that if you want to buy in the DC area and are waiting and thinking there might be a downturn, your best shot is the southeast areas. I'm looking at the Arlington area, which seems to be be a very stable area. Don't see a downturn there.
@@ReventureConsulting Google 'Government Shutdown', which is a type of nuclear option when a party is not getting its way. Sends shock waves through the DC area economy. But eventually, someone blinks and funding for government operations is passed through the Congress. Politicians are not going to permanently shut their playground down.
I bought my house in zip 20736, southeast of DC, cost $225,000, I sold at $268 2018, it is now worth $400,000. So few homes go on the market with so many buyers the homes are bid up a lot. Schools are solid 8/9 .
@@ReventureConsulting my county is surrounded by water, to the east is the Chesapeake Bay, to the west is the Patuxent River. Salt and brackish water. Sailing, skiing, fishing, crabs, oysters, dolphin 🐬 watching, Federal/State/local parks. Lots of sports, wineries, gambling, concerts. Great for families and casual living, not so much for the 19-28 crowd. They usually move for college and jobs and return to start families.
Your assessment is right on. This is one of the best real estate market analysis I have ever seen. It never ceases to amaze me how smart some people are, yeah I am talking about you, you are really smart my friend.
Interesting perspective. DMV is an expensive area to buy. As someone starting the process in the area, it's a SUPER competitive market and since wages aren't as high as the aggregate data points its really hard as a first time homebuyer to enter the market. Additionally the price increases in some areas aren't natural in my opinion, huge jumps in appreciation in 3 years seems like a correction would be in order.
What would you say is the golden spot between undervalued and bubbly? Would 4:1, 5:1, 6:1, or something else be the tipping point. It seems like DC is still slightly on the bubbly side that just never popped all these years.
How do you think Amazon will effect the south side of DC knowing the type of clientele it’ll bring? Do you think it’ll push more appreciation into PG or just pump up existing areas west and downtown?
I live in Loudoun County and my guess is that Amazon will put pressure on prices in all areas south and west all the way from Springfield to Leesburg with the highest inflation being in the closer areas to the new HQ2. It looks like a lot if the jobs will be high paying corporate HQ style jobs.
Awesome video - thank you! Do you think that the position of buyers will improve/change substantially in 6 months in DC? We're looking to buy and I totally take your point that the US housing market is poised for a crash by early next year but not sure if you think that applies to DC as well given that wages are keeping pace with home values and that the federal government tends to make it a more stable market overall.
Hope you're doing well. Thanks for another great video. I appreciate the detail you share on your content. Great perspective on factoring in crime and poverty risk elements when looking at the higher growth ZIPs identified. Really enjoy these deep dives.
Another great video appreciate the work you put into these. Hoping to see you analyze a smaller city sometime just to see your thoughts somewhere with a median home price under $170,000
DC is a really tough market to make sense of. It really has to be at the neighborhood-by-neighborhood, almost street-by-street granularity. The difference in crime between W and E of 16th NW is pretty shocking. Or how Logan/Shaw/Admo/U St/H St gentrified like crazy while other nearby areas like CoHi, Petworth, Parkview, Brightwood Park are limited by their persistent high rates of crime. There is currently a glut of Class A MF in downtown DC that is holding down condo valuations imo. Then you have Amazon going into National Landing and all the Northern Virginia submarkets. It's just a big market with probably a dozen job centers and lots of history in terms of redlining/rascism/disinvestment. This infographic on DC gun violence is quite explanatory: www.reddit.com/r/washingtondc/comments/k6z2f2/visualizing_gunshots_in_dc_in_2020/
Thanks for the detailed post and insight Brad! That infographic is crazy. Makes me even more skeptical of those high-appreciation ZIPs in the southeast.
You're spot on Bradley. I own a rowhouse on Capitol Hill and home values swing 25% street by street based on the factors you point out. Given the high crime and corresponding low-quality housing stock in those areas, I would suspect that the distribution of home values is wider than the average city. I believe the net effect in DC is that a "decent house" in DC proper is probably less affordable than the data suggests. Not sure whether it significantly impacts the conclusion. Maybe using mode would yield a less skewed number? Definitely agree with the class A comment. I believe our Class A pipeline is the 2nd largest in the country behind NYC.
@@legaryd Can't go wrong with a Capitol Hill row house. I hadn't lived in big cities prior to DC and I had to recalibrate my brain to understand it. It's crazy how big of a difference a couple of blocks can make. I'm worried that DC is being flooded with MF apartments. The close-in suburban areas in NoVa and Montgomery County are absolutely on fire, but I think that will calm down.
Great timing. I live in NW DC. One thing the home price data doesn't include is HOA fees. I have seen HOA fees as high as $2,000 per month in certain luxury condos in DC. The other issue with DC is that when considering home prices and HOA fees, rents seem like a better deal in the nicer areas. Most homes will not cash flow, unless you go into PG county and SE DC.
Thank you for the comment!
You make a great point about HOA fees and the buy v. rent decision.
The lack of cash flow is a problem in a lot of markets right now.
Even here in Prince George's, cash flow is uncommon to rare, right now. There are a LOT of bad deals on the market which would be immediate alligators (read: feed with cash to keep them satisfied each month) for the inexperienced newbie who hasn't accurately tracked and accounted for the hefty operating costs.
I live in one of the DC metro area and my guess about the persistent permitting % is because developers have built out the easy, large tracts that are within a reasonable driving distance from DC, Tyson’s Corner, Reston, Arlington and other employment centers. So now new home customers have to choose between an expensive home really close in or drive for an hour and a half one way. There is a lot of infilling, rehabbing/flipping and teardown activity in the DC area. But those do not produce thousands of homes quickly. So it is a fairly steady process of creating additions to the housing stock.
I live in Fort Washington (Prince George's) and the sheer volume of higher-priced housing built on the east side of the city (i.e. end goal: gentrification) is pushing lower-priced (read: poor / crime elements) so far out of Southeast and Northeast DC and out of P.G. (mainly inside the Beltway) that the only people able to afford to live there anymore is the professional class. Again: eyes on the ground here, watching it happen. It's insane.
Pretty soon, only well-established types are going to be able to afford to live here.
100% Accurate. In a few years anyone making less than 100K will be commuting from Baltimore to work in DC.
Yes indeed. I bought a 🏠 in 20743 zip code at the bottom in 2011 for $105K sold it for $270K in 2020. Moved back up to Baltimore Co & bought a cheaper 🏠 w/ almost 3Xs the space.
In the past DC has always been recession proof, inside the beltway. I enjoy your videos, the facts and analysis you provide seems very logical and solid. I live in Manassas, 30 miles out from DC.
GREAT VIDEO! Please do more of these. As an 11 year millennial resident in the DMV (Alexandria, VA) since 2010. I can tell you there has been a significant amount of growth and renovation in the District of Columbia particularly in NE, DC and SE DC Navy Yard Anacostia areas. There is an alarming amount of gentrification that pricing long time area residents out of the District proper into the surrounding areas of Maryland, namely PG county (the ones you listed for high growth). Even then there is alot of development centering around the National Harbor and MGM casino in the Oxon Hill / Fort Washington MD area. This is where you are seeing alot of the appreciation/growth, particularly in the 20032 area code. I think its also important to note the demographics of the areas you higlight to give people a more holistic view of the market. The areas on the East side of the city blue affordable /magenta high growth appreciation are areas predominantly populated with Black people. The areas on the West and Northwest side of the city magenta expensive /blue low growth appreciation are areas predominantly populated with White people. I think if you could add the specifics about the demographics to your videos that would be a great enhancement to add. Very helpful video Thanks!
Thank for the local insight Edric! Much appreciated!
Somehow I don't think that's happening....lol
I feel like your analysis is spot on. If you can afford the housing, DC is a great place to purchase if you want to shield yourself from volatility. My other takeaway from your video is that if you want to buy in the DC area and are waiting and thinking there might be a downturn, your best shot is the southeast areas. I'm looking at the Arlington area, which seems to be be a very stable area. Don't see a downturn there.
Thanks for the comment! DC appears to be a much more stable market this time around.
Great analysis, 1 thing i would say is DC is recession proof thanks to the Federal Government, which provide a stable workforce.
Agreed! While not everyone likes the Federal government, one thing you can't argue with is the job stability.
@@ReventureConsulting Google 'Government Shutdown', which is a type of nuclear option when a party is not getting its way. Sends shock waves through the DC area economy. But eventually, someone blinks and funding for government operations is passed through the Congress. Politicians are not going to permanently shut their playground down.
Well, if you look at home price to income ratio. There are just a lot of super wealthy people in DC. Does that reflect the ordinary people's income?
I bought my house in zip 20736, southeast of DC, cost $225,000, I sold at $268 2018, it is now worth $400,000. So few homes go on the market with so many buyers the homes are bid up a lot. Schools are solid 8/9 .
Thanks for the comment Kenyon! That looks like a great area. Hopefully you're close to the beach!
@@ReventureConsulting my county is surrounded by water, to the east is the Chesapeake Bay, to the west is the Patuxent River. Salt and brackish water. Sailing, skiing, fishing, crabs, oysters, dolphin 🐬 watching, Federal/State/local parks. Lots of sports, wineries, gambling, concerts. Great for families and casual living, not so much for the 19-28 crowd. They usually move for college and jobs and return to start families.
Your assessment is right on. This is one of the best real estate market analysis I have ever seen. It never ceases to amaze me how smart some people are, yeah I am talking about you, you are really smart my friend.
Interesting perspective. DMV is an expensive area to buy. As someone starting the process in the area, it's a SUPER competitive market and since wages aren't as high as the aggregate data points its really hard as a first time homebuyer to enter the market. Additionally the price increases in some areas aren't natural in my opinion, huge jumps in appreciation in 3 years seems like a correction would be in order.
How you making out now?
What would you say is the golden spot between undervalued and bubbly? Would 4:1, 5:1, 6:1, or something else be the tipping point. It seems like DC is still slightly on the bubbly side that just never popped all these years.
Hey thanks man for this info . Your channel will blow up . Keep it UP .
Thanks for the kind words Lee!
How do you think Amazon will effect the south side of DC knowing the type of clientele it’ll bring? Do you think it’ll push more appreciation into PG or just pump up existing areas west and downtown?
I live in Loudoun County and my guess is that Amazon will put pressure on prices in all areas south and west all the way from Springfield to Leesburg with the highest inflation being in the closer areas to the new HQ2. It looks like a lot if the jobs will be high paying corporate HQ style jobs.
Where are you getting the wage data, Nick? My DC metro wage data doesn't seem to match up to yours. I'm getting it here.
I also live in DC area and thinking of selling my house. Great info, thanks!
Thank you! Good luck on the sale!
I live in DC area. Great research. Thanks
Thanks Kevin! What area do you live?
Thank you for this information. I live in DC. Condo market is cooling.
Awesome video - thank you! Do you think that the position of buyers will improve/change substantially in 6 months in DC? We're looking to buy and I totally take your point that the US housing market is poised for a crash by early next year but not sure if you think that applies to DC as well given that wages are keeping pace with home values and that the federal government tends to make it a more stable market overall.
Permits/Jobs are a good index
Hope you're doing well. Thanks for another great video. I appreciate the detail you share on your content. Great perspective on factoring in crime and poverty risk elements when looking at the higher growth ZIPs identified. Really enjoy these deep dives.
Thanks Thomas!
Another great video appreciate the work you put into these. Hoping to see you analyze a smaller city sometime just to see your thoughts somewhere with a median home price under $170,000
How about Balitmore?
Added to the list! Quite a few ahead of it, though.
DC is a really tough market to make sense of. It really has to be at the neighborhood-by-neighborhood, almost street-by-street granularity. The difference in crime between W and E of 16th NW is pretty shocking. Or how Logan/Shaw/Admo/U St/H St gentrified like crazy while other nearby areas like CoHi, Petworth, Parkview, Brightwood Park are limited by their persistent high rates of crime. There is currently a glut of Class A MF in downtown DC that is holding down condo valuations imo. Then you have Amazon going into National Landing and all the Northern Virginia submarkets. It's just a big market with probably a dozen job centers and lots of history in terms of redlining/rascism/disinvestment. This infographic on DC gun violence is quite explanatory: www.reddit.com/r/washingtondc/comments/k6z2f2/visualizing_gunshots_in_dc_in_2020/
Thanks for the detailed post and insight Brad!
That infographic is crazy. Makes me even more skeptical of those high-appreciation ZIPs in the southeast.
You're spot on Bradley. I own a rowhouse on Capitol Hill and home values swing 25% street by street based on the factors you point out. Given the high crime and corresponding low-quality housing stock in those areas, I would suspect that the distribution of home values is wider than the average city. I believe the net effect in DC is that a "decent house" in DC proper is probably less affordable than the data suggests. Not sure whether it significantly impacts the conclusion. Maybe using mode would yield a less skewed number?
Definitely agree with the class A comment. I believe our Class A pipeline is the 2nd largest in the country behind NYC.
@@legaryd Can't go wrong with a Capitol Hill row house. I hadn't lived in big cities prior to DC and I had to recalibrate my brain to understand it. It's crazy how big of a difference a couple of blocks can make. I'm worried that DC is being flooded with MF apartments. The close-in suburban areas in NoVa and Montgomery County are absolutely on fire, but I think that will calm down.
Excellent video. The content exceeded my expectations. Thank you for doing this.
Thank you Ramon!
Great analysis. Learned a lot. Do u do private consulting?
The poverty zip code is like anacostia in dc
Awesome analysis! Keep the videos coming
Thank you! I will!
Review Boise, Idaho #1 market in America.
It's on the list! Stay tuned.
Recently bought in 20019😎
This information was great thanks so much!👍🏽🌹
Great video! thanks!!
I live in the DC area and my wages aren't keeping pace with the rise in home prices lol. I'm a renter.
Good to know! The BLS wage data is an aggregate and obviously doesn't reflect everyone's situation.
Good job
!