Why We're Avoiding AST SpaceMobile $ASTS

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  • Опубликовано: 18 янв 2025

Комментарии • 96

  • @dandyintheunderworld9972
    @dandyintheunderworld9972 10 месяцев назад +6

    Have you changed your mind about ASTS, given the investments from AT&T, Vodaphone, Google, etc?

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  10 месяцев назад +8

      No revenues past four quarters. No thanks.

    • @davidbest8912
      @davidbest8912 7 месяцев назад +2

      Commercial revenue now expected by year end..

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 месяцев назад +5

      ​@@davidbest8912 How long have we been waiting for revenues now? We'll believe it when we see it. Ping us when they start to see meaningful revenues then it will be time to do an update.

    • @dandyintheunderworld9972
      @dandyintheunderworld9972 5 месяцев назад +1

      ​@@Nanalyze Once they start making revenues, you'll be too late you clown, and you make videos on stocks!

    • @Tay04723
      @Tay04723 5 месяцев назад

      @@dandyintheunderworld9972space isn’t real 😂

  • @karelidarivera6464
    @karelidarivera6464 3 года назад +11

    Thank you for your research on ASTS. I am very excited about the company, and I value videos like yours because I try to have my eyes and ears wide open to really evaluate the pros and cons of my investments. Thanks.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  3 года назад +6

      You are most welcome and we really appreciate that comment Karelida. It's always important to look at pros and cons. We should never fall in love with a stock and should always want to hear both sides of the story. And the most exciting stories should be given the most scrutiny!

  • @lawLess-fs1qx
    @lawLess-fs1qx 5 месяцев назад +5

    I bought 100 of the spac at $10.bought 50 at $2, another 50 @3$. total 200 shares@6.25. Invested $1,250. Profit of $4,950 so far. Letting my $6,200 investment ride until the first Launch. It'll either go up in smoke or another 50%. either way it's a lot of fun for a grand invested.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  5 месяцев назад

      Sounds like you're having lots of fun speculating. We're investors, so we don't invest in companies that don't have a business. That is, revenues that generate positive gross margins. If we wanted to bet on something that goes up 50% or goes to zero, we'll hit the casino and have a whole lot more fun. ;)

    • @bineats123
      @bineats123 5 месяцев назад +1

      @@Nanalyze So you stand by this video still? (i am an investor as well and understand currently there is a lot of hype) just wondering if anything changed your thesis?

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  5 месяцев назад +1

      @@bineats123 Not sure what your questions means, "do we stand by this video?" If a company has no revenues, we have zero interest. Simple. That single rule has helped us avoid more shite than any other. Wouldn't touch this stock with a ten-foot pole until they have meaningful revenues AND a positive gross margin. That goes for any company.

  • @mayhemindustrial7144
    @mayhemindustrial7144 2 года назад +4

    You guys are great. It’s good to be talked out of all the hype. No BS just BSD 👍🏻

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  2 года назад +1

      Hah! That's a great slogan we could adopt. "No BS, just BSD." Thank you so much for the supportive words and for appreciating our sense of humor!

  • @BH-lp1vk
    @BH-lp1vk 2 года назад +4

    I’ve recently gotten swept up in the ASTS hype. It’s hard not to when the concept of this company is so amazing! But as you said, until revenue starts coming in, it’s really only that-a concept. I think if investors are truly interested in doing their due diligence, it’s valuable to consider all of the pros and cons of a stock. Thank you for this analysis!

    • @joepiv
      @joepiv 2 года назад +2

      Quality comment here. Yes, it's very easy to get caught up in hype. When there's a story that sounds amazing, it's still just that - a story - until revenues demonstrate traction. Honestly, one of the best rules we ever established was never investing until there's meaningful revenues. Yep, investors always need to consider pros and cons and make their own decisions. You're quite welcome and thanks for popping by to say hello!

    • @davidbest8912
      @davidbest8912 2 года назад +2

      The Starlink satellites are to far out in space to connect with the unmodified phone in your pocket. Blue walker three was launched earlier this morning in low orbit.. Time will tell if they can scale the product. Looking to build small position in coming weeks..

    • @joepiv
      @joepiv 2 года назад

      @@davidbest8912 So SpaceX is just talking out their ass? Got it.

    • @lionheart93
      @lionheart93 5 месяцев назад

      the concept is making people money but no rvenue hybe job

  • @andrewsullivan1523
    @andrewsullivan1523 2 года назад

    Still avoidng after the launch?

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  2 года назад

      We're still waiting for the company to prove the technology. In the meantime, it appears SpaceX is now moving into their space. Doesn't look good for ASTS.

    • @fantasyape
      @fantasyape 2 года назад

      @@Nanalyze please elaborate how space x is moving into their space

    • @joepiv
      @joepiv 2 года назад

      @@fantasyape Read the news

  • @compactreview
    @compactreview 2 года назад +1

    Can you analyze how ASTS will compare to SpaceX antennas? One of the most important things would be bandwidth at relatively clear sky

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  2 года назад

      We don't do research on demand unless you're paying us money. Either discuss the points of contention raised in this video or take the false equivalence somewhere else.

    • @agoogleuser6937
      @agoogleuser6937 4 месяца назад

      ASTS wants to offer coverage, not speed, they do not compete with StarLink

  • @TheSpaceInvestor
    @TheSpaceInvestor 2 года назад +2

    Thanks for the insight

  • @Muonium1
    @Muonium1 3 года назад +4

    "get's"? ...really now?
    Anyway, just ignore the ridiculous revenue projections and broadband to every cell phone claims. Obviously that's hype. But a company like this doesn't NEED to do broadband to everyone from LEO in order to be highly profitable. They don't even really need to do voice. Even with text capability only the potential market is huge. Remote backcountry IoT scientific devices, emergency help for hikers, remote oil/gas industry asset monitoring. You only need a few kB per day for most of this stuff and if all you have to do is sell sim cards to let customers access the sat network, then after the thing's in orbit you're basically looking at pure profit. I'm convinced the signal doppler shift issues can be managed based on the demo last year, what I'm yet to be convinced of is if a smallsat can have enough computational (and thus solar) power to do it for thousands of connections simultaneously.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  3 года назад

      Obviously that's hype? So you're saying the company is lying about what they claim to be able to do? So file them in the circular filing cabinet then. We don't invest in companies that peddle dreams, and we don't try and construct fantasies about what they might do with their technology, we look at what they say they are doing and judge them accordingly.
      If you're interested in text communications, then this piece may interest you: www.nanalyze.com/2021/08/spacex-internet-of-things/

    • @Muonium1
      @Muonium1 3 года назад +2

      @@Nanalyze "forward looking statements" aka exaggeration. ya, it's a thing companies do. I'm aware of Swarm, they require $500 proprietary hardware.

  • @MrUpgradable
    @MrUpgradable 5 месяцев назад +1

    Great video (for it's time, almost 2 years ago) to question all assumptions, great that we have you inviting thought & discussion.
    However... a lot has changed and perhaps it's time to look at the newer evidence to avoid "loss aversion" as this could be an interesting company.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  5 месяцев назад +2

      From our perspective nothing has changed. They have no revenues. No revenues, no interest, no exceptions.

    • @MrUpgradable
      @MrUpgradable 5 месяцев назад

      @@Nanalyze Noted ;)

  • @Tay04723
    @Tay04723 5 месяцев назад

    Most people don’t realize we get all our internet from the wired connections in the oceans not from sattelites

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  5 месяцев назад +1

      What's interesting about Starlink is how much cheaper they claim satellite internet connectivity will eventually be when compared to current methods. (Covered here: www.nanalyze.com/2019/12/impact-cheap-satellites-launches/) Starlink has 6,206 working satellites while ASTS plans to launch five. Key word there "plans." Getting revenues from those satellites is what investors need to pay attention to. While product market fit usually happens well before a company goes public, in this case we see a company that went public way too early and that's now being pumped by cheerleaders. The outcome is always predictable.

  • @joepiv
    @joepiv 3 года назад +2

    COMMENTS POLICY: People are expected to behave in a manner that enriches the conversation. Criticisms are strongly encouraged as long as they are presented in a civil manner. Any rude obnoxious attack-the-messenger rubbish will be given one warning. After that, comments will be removed and the individual who made them will be blocked.
    UPDATE 02/07/2022: Someone pointed out that some of the MOUs AST SpaceMobile has are in fact legally binding contracts. We're not sure why a company would call a contract an MOU when the generally accepted definition of an MOU is a legal handshake, but it doesn't change our thesis in any way shape or form. Revenues are what we care about. MOUs and/or contracts are not revenues.

    • @BH-lp1vk
      @BH-lp1vk 2 года назад

      I’ve been wondering if an MOU is actually a legally binding contract. It’s not a document that is filed with a court or other governing body, right?

    • @joepiv
      @joepiv 2 года назад +1

      @@BH-lp1vk No, typically it's the legal equivalent of a handshake.

    • @Dementia.Pugilistica
      @Dementia.Pugilistica 2 года назад

      @@joepiv what’s different between this and a LOI? They’re both non-legally binding aren’t they?

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  2 года назад +1

      @@Dementia.Pugilistica Investopedia: "A memorandum of understanding is an agreement between two or more parties outlined in a formal document. It is not legally binding but signals the willingness of the parties to move forward with a contract." Wikipedia: "A letter of intent is a document outlining the understanding between two or more parties which they intend to formalize in a legally binding agreement." So no.

  • @agoogleuser6937
    @agoogleuser6937 4 месяца назад

    10:11 Solid argument here!👏🏼

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  4 месяца назад +1

      Exactly. It's 2024 and the billion dollars in revenues is nowhere to be seen. How can management be trusted when the revenues are always around the corner?

    • @KeyOn_M6
      @KeyOn_M6 4 месяца назад +1

      These guys seem to trust management...
      1. Vodafone
      2. Rakuten
      3. American Tower
      4. Samsung
      5. AT&T

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  4 месяца назад

      @@KeyOn_M6 MOUs can get signed ad infinitum. We care about one thing only. Revenues. Let us know when those are here and we'll take another look. And management has been a complete and utter shite show so far. That's a fact.

  • @joshmiller2725
    @joshmiller2725 6 месяцев назад +1

    Here we are 2 years later and these comments are very interesting. Yes things are looking better for asts, promising developments. But I think about Peter lynch, one of the greatest investors to ever live, who said he’s invested in many companies pre revenue where the potential upside is massive if everything works out, and not one of those investments was successful.
    Burning $300m per year, still no revenue, launch in a month hopefully but we’ll see. And on top of that how much data will people actually get from this? If you can’t stream Netflix, and it’s just for talk and text, how much will people spend to be able to talk and text in remote areas. How big is that market really?

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  6 месяцев назад +1

      You are spot on. We never - and I mean never - invest in pre revenue firms and that has saved us from more land mines than any other rule we have. ASTS loves to issue press releases about MOUs, and agreements, and partnerships, and collaborations, and the fintwat lot always has a good group wank over these things. We continue to say the same thing over and over. No revenues, no interest, no exceptions. Joe P.

  • @davidbest8912
    @davidbest8912 7 месяцев назад +1

    Time for update. Stock up 297% in last month..

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 месяцев назад +1

      We invest in companies, not stocks. No meaningful revenues, no interest, no exceptions. Ping us when they start to see meaningful revenues then it will be time to do an update.

  • @runningman5871
    @runningman5871 Год назад

    ASTS need to launch 168 satellites for it's constellation. Looking at the balance sheet, they need to raise a lot of money to even launch 5 for the test network.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  Год назад +1

      A day late and a dollar short? We'll see.

  • @agoogleuser6937
    @agoogleuser6937 4 месяца назад

    PLease UpDate

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  4 месяца назад

      Here you go: ruclips.net/video/GD80lTsG950/видео.html

  • @amcadam26
    @amcadam26 2 года назад

    Virgin Galactic is a good example of a space spac that's massively over hyped with little actual technology to back themselves up. Now if they go orbital within the next five years.... Then they'd be worth a look. But I see no real future in sub orbital five minute tourist fairground rides.

    • @joepiv
      @joepiv 2 года назад

      Would have to agree. Here's a piece we did on them: ruclips.net/video/JCDCr3yBDYo/видео.html

  • @kingzparadise474
    @kingzparadise474 7 месяцев назад

    Do you still feel the same way about this company because they did just become more successful

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  7 месяцев назад +3

      By "become more successful" do you actually mean "issued more press releases?" Little has actually changed. No revenues, no interest, no exceptions.

    • @kingzparadise474
      @kingzparadise474 7 месяцев назад +2

      @@Nanalyze I see where you’re coming from . I did make a nice trade but I can see where you’re coming from on the long term perspective

  • @MrCharliebbarkin
    @MrCharliebbarkin 2 года назад +1

    I must say, I believe the value proposition for what ASTS hopes to achieve is enormous, and it is worth the risk of investing pre-revenue. Today they released a photo of Bluewalker 3 with it's array fully deployed, and it looks very impressive. So it is more than vaporware, and I do believe they are on track to launch in the coming months. If it works, and there's a high likelihood it will, it paves the way for the equatorial constellation. American Tower Corp is a 100+ billion dollar company. What do you think connecting the whole world will be worth? There's a potential for a very high return here, and I personally have around 10% of my net worth in this stock.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  2 года назад +5

      No, it's not. We've seen countless cases where it was wise to avoid investing in a tech company until they show meaningful revenues. None of this "get in early" FOMO garbage.
      We're not here to discuss the bull case, we're here to examine the red flags that keep risk-averse investors on the sidelines. These are people who value preservation of wealth as much as growing wealth. Having 10% of your net worth in any single stock is not prudent and exhibits the sort of mentality that will never accumulate wealth in the long run.
      You saw a picture of a satellite? Awesome. Let us know when they have meaningful revenues.

  • @MrMentalpuppy
    @MrMentalpuppy 5 месяцев назад +1

    Haha, came back to see what the "newest" tab contains. How does this new breed of investors still have funds lol I mean come on, even a simple analysis would lead you to the conclusion that this is a pie in the sky company. Sure, anything can happen, but... dilution, minimal contributions from parters, starlink as competition, low cash on hand, and this is just with a cursory 5 min search. Then they come here to rant against nanalyze's points lolll There is still nothing to this stock yet 😅

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  5 месяцев назад +1

      @MrMentalpuppy is a regular so sorry about the intern chewing you out. ;) We never invest before meaningful revenues and positive gross margins. That simple rule has saved us from more garbage than any other. Cheerleaders gonna cheerlead. Joe P.

    • @agoogleuser6937
      @agoogleuser6937 4 месяца назад

      Starlink a competitor in what?

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  4 месяца назад +1

      @@agoogleuser6937 If that's not obvious to you then we can't be of any help. Now stop asking dumb questions please or refrain from commenting.

  • @leon_noel1687
    @leon_noel1687 3 года назад

    So I've got some money for the first time in my life and started to inform myself about stocks two days ago. Since I'm studying physics disruptive technologys is everything that interests me in terms of stocks, what do you think about Virgin Galactic Stocks, I would assume that it has the potential to go skyhigh?

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  3 года назад +5

      Hey Leon. Thanks for sharing! You're studying physics which means you're a smart bloke. Don't so something dumb like trying to cherry-pick your way to a new zip code. Virgin Galactic was a mess and continues to be a mess. Stay away from that SPAC junk. Stop thinking about stocks that go sky high and start thinking about safe places to park your money first. Use dollar-cost-averaging. Here's a primer to get you started: www.nanalyze.com/complete-guide-buying-stocks-beginners/
      Most important thing! Don't try and gamble with student loans or a small amount of one-time money. Get a job when you graduate and live way below your means. Sock money away every month into solid investments. Take 20 to 30% and try and create a tech stock portfolio. You're younger (sounds like) so you can afford more risk than usual.

    • @leon_noel1687
      @leon_noel1687 3 года назад

      @@Nanalyze Thx for your advices. In germany I don´t have to pay for university and I´ve got a good paying job, so I will only invest money on speculative stocks that I can afford losing.
      When you say the stock was a mess from the begining, this is not true for the people who selled at the piecs what I´m planing to do.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  3 года назад +1

      Good for you man! Well done. We're assuming you're young which means this is precisely when you shouldn't be speculating. You should be investing. It's about time in the market, not timing the market. Make sure you have some safe investments alongside your speculative ones!

  • @SavvyMoneyShow
    @SavvyMoneyShow 2 года назад

    I am riding free asts I miss out on some of the run up to protect my investment

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  2 года назад +2

      Playing with the house's money is always nice, just be wary of the "house money effect."

    • @SavvyMoneyShow
      @SavvyMoneyShow 2 года назад +1

      @@Nanalyze what I do is when a stock runs up I pull my initial investment to protect my investment if I believe lt in that company I split my profit in free shares and profit 📈 if it carries on running I have more shares if it drops I reevaluate and if my original thesis is still sound at first tranche I put profit in then when it comes back down to original investing price I will put my original investment back in but there have been times I was playing with house money thesis or fundamentals have changed so I cut it loose and diverted funds elsewhere it is still my money at the end of the day

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  2 года назад +1

      The fact that you have a method and stick to it is admirable. Then you can just refine it over time.

    • @SavvyMoneyShow
      @SavvyMoneyShow 2 года назад +2

      @@Nanalyze that's what I am hoping my portfolio is growing

    • @RallyTrack
      @RallyTrack 5 месяцев назад +1

      @@SavvyMoneyShow That's quite similar to my old gambling tactics...they were overall successful, but I don't gamble anymore. Real estate and long-term stock investing has done me very well for the past quarter century.

  • @dewdropin2010
    @dewdropin2010 2 года назад

    I heard a representative from this company talk about the launch status of their satellites. He said they’re being launched by SpaceX in the summer or fall of 2022 there is no record of this happening maybe it will be in 2023. SpaceX has a company star link that is launching its newest version of satellites. I suspect star link will be providing the backbone for cellular communication it is already doing this in Japan and Indonesia. You cannot look at sat phones as any reference. The technology of the phone is inadequate and they are communicating to satellites in deep space. This company is launching their satellites In low earth orbit. Their satellites are large so they will have to use certain launch providers. I believe Star link is going to crush this company even before it gets off the ground.

    • @Nanalyze
      @Nanalyze  2 года назад

      SpaceX is well aware of what competing technologies are out there. It's why they purchased Swarm (www.nanalyze.com/2021/08/spacex-internet-of-things/). We have not seen any proof of concept that demonstrates that the technology AST claims to have works as they claim it does. Highly skeptical of this firm.

    • @joepiv
      @joepiv 2 года назад

      @@ThePalisky One what? One satellite? From who? ASTS? So their perpetually moving launch date is finally here? Meanwhile Starlink has 2,900 satellites and they're already beginning to offer service? Bad news for ASTS.

  • @goldbrick2563
    @goldbrick2563 3 года назад +1

    Why dont they just use existing satellite networks like StarLink...have u read about the planned Tesla phone using satellite? Do u think this tech is 10 years out or closer than that...like 5?

    • @joepiv
      @joepiv 3 года назад +3

      Thank you for the comment. The planned Tesla phone rumor was said to be baseless and false. At least that's what a cursory look into the matter shows :) As for when such a tech might exist, our point of contention lies in the claim that all phones as they exist today will suddenly be able to use satellites instead of cell phone towers. That's what we find quite incredible to believe and would like to see a proof of concept. Also check out the IoT comms firm SpaceX bought: www.nanalyze.com/2021/08/spacex-internet-of-things/

    • @joepiv
      @joepiv 2 года назад +1

      @@toodiablo Starlink is also capable of going out and getting operators to sign MOUs. AST SpaceMobile needs to show that their technology works, then they need to show meaningful revenues from said technology. When they do that, they'll be definitely worth another look.