So I went through the video and counted all of the bounces from the frog potions and also did the math for the expected probabilities of each amount of bounces vs the actual probabilities, and I'm not sure how the person live commenting in the chat got their number of 8 bounces on average, but that is way off from what the actual average should be, which is just under 3 bounces on average, or just under 4 towers affected per potion. After looking at all the bounces and calculating how many total stats you gained from the potions (1059 each of hp and attack), as well as how many potions you bought (72), I figured out that the average stats per gold that you gained was 3.677, which is actually above average compared to the expected amount of
Appreciate taking your time to actually do the probability. I'm not exactly sure how the math would work but I thought it should be higher. I guess .70 chance to hit infinity is infact harder than expected. It was a fun concept and apparently I had above average luck which kinda makes the frog potion kinda useless... in long runs. The ribbiting was lovely though 😂 Who would have guessed that this was me on lucky day 😅 perspective is wild.
I think the person who said an average of 8 came with the number because they said that the chance to hit another tower that allows the cycle to continue is about 8 out of 10, not taking into into account that after every time the potion goes to another tower, the chance is reduced by almost 0.2.
@@Rockthem Yeah, no problem! Sometimes math/statistics questions intrigue me and I like to spend time figuring them out, and in this case I was mainly curious to see how bad the 1 bounce luck was, but I thought I might as well do all the math for everything to see overall what the luck looked like in that run (also the number 8 seemed way too high for average number of expected bounces to me, and I don't like saying/thinking someone is wrong without having any fact to prove that I'm correct in thinking that way, so I wanted to make sure I wasn't thinking incorrectly and/or making a judgment simply based off of feeling rather than fact).
The chest is 33% of the frog potion enders, so your frog potions are 33% worse with it there Not saying you should have gotten rid of it, but you should measure 20 gold vs 33% less frog jump.
@ as long as the 20+ gold got you 33% or more frog potions than you could've got otherwise, it was better than another hydra. Considering the 20 was most of your gold, 1000% worth it lol.
You were not unlucky. You have 14 towers in total. 11 towers will make the cycle of potion hoping to continue. We will call them Cycle Towers or CT 3 towers will break the cycle of potion hoping. We will call them Breaking Towers or BT That means 11/14 about 0,785714285714, or about 78% for the cycle to continue after you drop the potion an a CT The chance for the potion to hop againg to a CT after that is 11/14 times 11/14 or about 0,785714285714 to the power of 2 (0,785714285714 ^ 2). After every potion hop to a CT the chance is about 0,785714285714 to the power n, n being the number of hops. If you calculate for just a couple of hops you will see that the chances lower dramaticaly after each potion hop. Actually, your chances to get 3 hops is less than 50%. 1 : 0,785714285714 2 : 0,617346938776 3: 0,485058309038 4: 0,381117242815 5: 0,299449262212 6: 0,235281563167 7: 0,184864085345 8: 0,145250352771 9: 0,114125277177 10: 0,0896698606394 11: 0,0704548905024 ... Doing it an almost infinite number of times, it will be not just improbable but for sure 0. Ps: I think your longest crycle was 17 hops. The chances of that happening is about 1,6%
I thought I had 20 as my highest. You sure I'm not unlucky.... well, that's good to know 😅😅😅 it's fun see the math, appreciate it... I guess in 77 or so tries... I was hoping for big numbers.
Im sorry, but I have to point out thats the gamblers fallacy. Because the potion can go to any of your towers, including the tower it just hit, the odds of the cycle continuing stays 11/14 for every bounce. His actual bounce rate was 3, or 4 towers effected per potion and he got extremely unlucky
@@RockthemAlso, your longest was 20. And it was a great video, you earned a subscriber and Im definitely checking the vod for the endless. Also also a note, you can really break a hydra build early by getting the cost of hydras to 0 and save until after the boss. Then you can roll through only legendarys and get a ton of hydras early. Looking forward to more videos
@@matts5k Hahaha Thanks for Sticking up for me I mean I can't argue with math but you are correct that 11/14 is each role but the chances do go down as I think the talk about cumulative chance of going forward.... Eitherway I agree regarding the unlucky part.
@@matts5k I guess The idea is to be safe from the round 10 boss mainly... That first boss is brutal if you don't build a cumilative 100 damage before ur royal tower.
Here's a question/build: If clover tower affects chances of things happening, why not build hidras with dice and clover instead of chest. Get a hidra and 2 dice towers. Leave 1 slot empty. Once you get your clover tower to max, delete one dice and build another max clover. This should get you enough "luck" to get hydra buff on every turn. Delete the other dice and build hidra instead. If you get stairway you can cut the second dice early and only have 1 clover tower. Nvm, if you get stairway you can only lvl hidra
I play rather fast myself to shorten the game duration, I guess I can try double speed but I wonder how much I'm saving in comparison to entertainment value.
There is some lore behind it but it's like adding more of ones personality to the video helps with building a community. Also most vids from livestream and ppl are more comfortable watching live when a face... any face... is there. It's not everyone cup of tea but I can always test with and without to see which one resonates more. Polls as well.
So I went through the video and counted all of the bounces from the frog potions and also did the math for the expected probabilities of each amount of bounces vs the actual probabilities, and I'm not sure how the person live commenting in the chat got their number of 8 bounces on average, but that is way off from what the actual average should be, which is just under 3 bounces on average, or just under 4 towers affected per potion. After looking at all the bounces and calculating how many total stats you gained from the potions (1059 each of hp and attack), as well as how many potions you bought (72), I figured out that the average stats per gold that you gained was 3.677, which is actually above average compared to the expected amount of
Appreciate taking your time to actually do the probability. I'm not exactly sure how the math would work but I thought it should be higher. I guess .70 chance to hit infinity is infact harder than expected.
It was a fun concept and apparently I had above average luck which kinda makes the frog potion kinda useless... in long runs. The ribbiting was lovely though 😂
Who would have guessed that this was me on lucky day 😅 perspective is wild.
I think the person who said an average of 8 came with the number because they said that the chance to hit another tower that allows the cycle to continue is about 8 out of 10, not taking into into account that after every time the potion goes to another tower, the chance is reduced by almost 0.2.
@@prenumenume7498 You can hit the same tower more than once to be fair.
@@Rockthem Yeah, no problem! Sometimes math/statistics questions intrigue me and I like to spend time figuring them out, and in this case I was mainly curious to see how bad the 1 bounce luck was, but I thought I might as well do all the math for everything to see overall what the luck looked like in that run (also the number 8 seemed way too high for average number of expected bounces to me, and I don't like saying/thinking someone is wrong without having any fact to prove that I'm correct in thinking that way, so I wanted to make sure I wasn't thinking incorrectly and/or making a judgment simply based off of feeling rather than fact).
@@prenumenume7498 Ah, yeah, that would make sense as to why they thought that. It's easy to forget how the probability of dependent events works.
35:57 18 hits
That was a nice bounce run 3 g for 54 att and hp
The chest is 33% of the frog potion enders, so your frog potions are 33% worse with it there
Not saying you should have gotten rid of it, but you should measure 20 gold vs 33% less frog jump.
Less gold won't allows us to buy and roll for potions though.... I think it's w necessary evik as frog requires mosquitos to work.
@ as long as the 20+ gold got you 33% or more frog potions than you could've got otherwise, it was better than another hydra. Considering the 20 was most of your gold, 1000% worth it lol.
The limit is the sky only if you have the stairway to heaven 😁
I went full hydra the other day, no chest tower or witch, when the 3 new slots open i made a builder tower lvl 2 , was a very easy run 😂
I think soo far stairway + hydra (anything) is the sureness way to cruise a win
You were not unlucky.
You have 14 towers in total.
11 towers will make the cycle of potion hoping to continue. We will call them Cycle Towers or CT
3 towers will break the cycle of potion hoping. We will call them Breaking Towers or BT
That means 11/14 about 0,785714285714, or about 78% for the cycle to continue after you drop the potion an a CT
The chance for the potion to hop againg to a CT after that is 11/14 times 11/14 or about 0,785714285714 to the power of 2 (0,785714285714 ^ 2).
After every potion hop to a CT the chance is about 0,785714285714 to the power n, n being the number of hops.
If you calculate for just a couple of hops you will see that the chances lower dramaticaly after each potion hop. Actually, your chances to get 3 hops is less than 50%.
1 : 0,785714285714
2 : 0,617346938776
3: 0,485058309038
4: 0,381117242815
5: 0,299449262212
6: 0,235281563167
7: 0,184864085345
8: 0,145250352771
9: 0,114125277177
10: 0,0896698606394
11: 0,0704548905024
...
Doing it an almost infinite number of times, it will be not just improbable but for sure 0.
Ps: I think your longest crycle was 17 hops. The chances of that happening is about 1,6%
I thought I had 20 as my highest. You sure I'm not unlucky.... well, that's good to know 😅😅😅 it's fun see the math, appreciate it... I guess in 77 or so tries... I was hoping for big numbers.
Im sorry, but I have to point out thats the gamblers fallacy. Because the potion can go to any of your towers, including the tower it just hit, the odds of the cycle continuing stays 11/14 for every bounce. His actual bounce rate was 3, or 4 towers effected per potion and he got extremely unlucky
@@RockthemAlso, your longest was 20. And it was a great video, you earned a subscriber and Im definitely checking the vod for the endless. Also also a note, you can really break a hydra build early by getting the cost of hydras to 0 and save until after the boss. Then you can roll through only legendarys and get a ton of hydras early. Looking forward to more videos
@@matts5k Hahaha Thanks for Sticking up for me I mean I can't argue with math but you are correct that 11/14 is each role but the chances do go down as I think the talk about cumulative chance of going forward.... Eitherway I agree regarding the unlucky part.
@@matts5k I guess The idea is to be safe from the round 10 boss mainly... That first boss is brutal if you don't build a cumilative 100 damage before ur royal tower.
Here's a question/build: If clover tower affects chances of things happening, why not build hidras with dice and clover instead of chest. Get a hidra and 2 dice towers. Leave 1 slot empty. Once you get your clover tower to max, delete one dice and build another max clover. This should get you enough "luck" to get hydra buff on every turn. Delete the other dice and build hidra instead. If you get stairway you can cut the second dice early and only have 1 clover tower. Nvm, if you get stairway you can only lvl hidra
Max luck with hydra will be 10% per round once it works 😅 probably can do the base game easy
Why u not make game more speed? :( U can did it at note icon
I play rather fast myself to shorten the game duration, I guess I can try double speed but I wonder how much I'm saving in comparison to entertainment value.
🐲🐲🐲
personally i would like the video more without the talking face in the bottom right corner
There is some lore behind it but it's like adding more of ones personality to the video helps with building a community. Also most vids from livestream and ppl are more comfortable watching live when a face... any face... is there. It's not everyone cup of tea but I can always test with and without to see which one resonates more. Polls as well.
No offense to the creator. But I agree.