I am so impressed with El-Erian's perspectives over the last two years. For those who have followed him, the markets movements come as no real surprise. I would have to say that his prognostications have been the best available.
If you followed him the past 2 years, you would have not participated in the market at all and have been sitting in cash the whole time, even during the 2020 March lows. He is a perma bear. You would have missed the tech rally, the commodity rally, the energy rally, the sp500 index rally; all of which, if you sold now, you would be up between 60-100+%
@@holyscythe Odd. Two years ago he regularly indicated the bull market was likely sustainable due to massive liquidy injections from the FED, but that at some point inflation might become an issue. So, I stayed 100% invested in equities through late last year as his warnings about FED policy and inflation increased. I went to 70% cash by December, avoiding the declines in January, and have been mostly in cash and using short positions (SQQQ's, primarily) since March. So, his opinions have resulted in consistent gains, speaking for myself. The one area I disagree with him is in terms of BTC. He still believes crypto has a limited place in a portfolio, while I am 100% short on crypto using BITO puts. I have found his guidance exceptionally helpful.
@@holyscythe Exactly. He's a macroeconomist, not a trader. He always claimed the bounce from march 2020 is temporary, he briefly admitted he was wrong in the second half of 2020. But before the 'mania' phase in the beginning of 2021 he became extremely bearish again. Missing the biggest moves completely. Dissmissing market rotations, that made tons of money even as the indexes stalled in the second half of 2021. Repeating 'once the liguidity dries out' is his mantra. I don't listen to permabulls (Tom Lee :-)) or permabears (El-Erian, Schiff, Grantham etc..). They have always their agendas to make their stance sound viable. El-Erian makes his money as a 'talking head', not by investing.
@@jlvandat69 I just went back to watch his interviews from 1-2 years ago, and he never tells you to buy equities - he's always been "I would be careful..." - go check for yourself. El-Erian has been overly cautious in the past 1-2 years. Honestly, the fact that you have and are making the trades you are doing currently speaks to you as a trader. You are giving yourself too little credit. You are taking his information and making smart decisions. Do you have any social media where we can follow your trades? at what target do you plan to close the SQQQ position? what other long positions do you have? What is your put on BITO (strike/expiry)?
Amazing how people can't fathom that the markets and high valuations of stocks were propped up by FED QE the past two years and now prices are reverting back to the mean pre-pandemic. Couple the unwinding of the FED balance sheet and high-inflation you have a recipe for disaster. The whole "priced-in" myth perpetrated by talking heads only applies to bond markets as evidenced by the increased yields, not the equity markets as many people conflate the two when discussing "the market." The best thing to do now is a Volker-move that'll reset the economy and markets painfully and quickly instead of the gradual death of .25bps hikes that risks stagflation. The FED's mandate is to contain inflation and constrain unemployment. It is not to artificially prop up GenZ pseudo-investor stock portfolios. Given a choice between recession and hyperinflation, I'd take a recession 10 out of 10 times. Recessions are healthy corrections to market and economic conditions, hyperinflation is not healthy ever. Maybe people should be buying things with cash instead of loans for things they can't afford like overvalued homes and Teslas...
I agree with you 100%. The problem is the US is a country that absolutely hates recessions. Their fed will artificially stimulate the economy if necessary just to avoid a small recession. It’s been since tech bubble their mandate is to avoid recessions at all costs.
That is their entire job. The sole purpose of the present day Federal Reserve is to feed free money from nowhere for doing nothing to its owners on Wall Street via asset price inflation.
@@rons5319 Not sure you are correct their pal. Their job is to maintain health of the economy. Not to transfer wealth from those who work harder and longer to those who don't ever have to work at all
@@jerequan1282 What I wrote in my comment is not the intent of what the Fed is supposed to do. But that is what the greed of Wall Street has morphed it into.
This is very good. The Fed is so late on inflation that the market knows the fed can not fight inflation without causing a down turn that will force the fed to feed inflation to correct the down turn. Impossible in the end. A train wreck waiting to happen.
Why is news so darn short!... would be nice to have an actual conversation with Mohamed... This is NOT enough information worthy of GOOD news CONTENT. Thanks
The Fed would need interest rates at 10% or higher to slow the current runaway inflation. U.S. government debt is now around $30 Trillion. The government would default on the debt if the Fed raised interest rates high enough. So instead, they will allow inflation to take over.
You are assuming that the inflation is only on the demand side, there could be a supply side as well which will become less as output increases. A recession can be deflationary itself. Call me crazy but i would really want to know what the market thinks the interest rate should be.
@@mvs9122 The Federal Reserve knows they overdid it with interest rates at zero for too long and insane amounts of QE. If it was purely supply side inflation, they wouldn't be raising interest rates to combat it. Supply side is definitely putting more pressure on inflation though. And the supply is about to get much smaller. Food shortages, chip shortage, energy shortages, supply is going down almost across the board and won't rebound for years.
Imagine landing spacecraft on a planet with visual picture of the ground that’s taken a month ago. Soft landing can’t be done! They will go too far and then realize they already crashed.
The US FED when from "Transitory Inflation" to "Peak Inflation" to holy shit they stopped snorting coke and realize inflations out of control and they have to increase rates more and more to stop inflation.
Inflation is the lesser evil for main street as well. Having a job is more important than losing purchasing power. Paying less for debt is also more important than getting a return on savings.
@@meh4770 When your paycheck doesn't buy anything, you won't work anymore. Inflation is the number one concern. Stocks and house prices are going down whether you like it or not.
He changed his tune in December of 2023. Interest rate hikes have stopped, now they are talking about possible interest rate CUTS in the spring and/or middle/end of the year of 2024. The Fed so far has threaded the needle, thank god for the American consumer.
Whatever Mohamed been bear for years. With that being said, I do agree we need nice big flush. This is soooo overdue, FED screwed this up since 2008. Been pumping market over a decade. Let it reset and FED never again should intervene. Let the market have bull/bear cycle on its own.
FED is sucking out the value from $12Trillion Dollars outside US and investing it in US economy. This is a profitable business for US, but this business might be lost forever if US continues being greedy.
El mercado bursátil de Acciones/Forex cambia constantemente y cada operador exitoso quiere mejorar, actualizar, mejorar y mejorar. Incluso los expertos con muchos años de experiencia y grandes ganancias en sus cuentas bancarias aún trabajan duro para analizar y mejorar la forma en que operan. Esto se aplica de manera más importante a los nuevos comerciantes y aquellos con experiencia mínima, el Sr. Stuart Michael ofrece una gran ayuda aquí. Una estrategia de análisis y mejora le brinda una forma estructurada de maximizar su potencial al mismo tiempo que capitaliza la parte buena de sus estrategias comerciales y de administración de dinero. Esto lo ayuda a ser más productivo y rentable a largo plazo y crea un cambio de paradigma en las estructuras/condiciones del mercado en constante cambio
The Fed is so screwed. We’ve never been closer to a mega crisis than this. These guys in this video spent 3 minutes explaining what could have been stated in one line. “There’s no way out”
Agree. At this point we're looking at a recession or worse. When things start to overheat the Fed will flip-flop which is actually going to cause the recession. It's amazing how the Fed can manipulate the system.
'... [Fed Chair chasing inflation] we've seen this in DEVELOPING countries, it's not a good dynamic to be in.' ... this is the US economy we're talking about! Wow, we're in BIG trouble.
One thing i'm not sure about rate hike impact , why uk keep raise interest rate consecutively but market is still strong pre-war. Maybe higher rate will be good for market but only some specific stock
No way, El, they're stuck. That balance sheet is massive. They can't afford to flip-flop, because all it would do is undercut companies' growth potential in the long term after a recovery
0:53 "Lesser Evil"... by whose vantage point. Lesser Evil for corporations = extended inflation and more poverty. Lesser Evil for commoners = pull the Band-aid, Paul Volcker like rates, a hard but a short correction.
Inflation reduces purchasing power from the consumer. On the other hand a market correction costs corporations and forces them to compete for the consumers, becoming more efficient. I advocate for a correction in lieu of a slow death of a million cuts (inflation).
He is so right, the minute the market truly going into a tailspin the Fed will come to its rescue and the bottom half of the country can go to hell and suck on their 15% annual inflation (as measured as it was in the 1970s before the government didnt like what it was saying and changed how it was calculated). Jay Powell is a private equity guy and a millionaire. This country is built for the upper crust. Jay will deliver rate cuts and QE probably by October.
Too many people follow seriously. Each time he predicts the Fed will have to pause or 'flip-flop' the greater the pain when the Fed follows through on its tightening.
"flip-flopping" equals congress and the president will get involved with a new law; when that time comes. did Powell make the Federal Reserve late for political purposes (as agreed to in closed door sessions in the Senate to end/reform the Fed?)
The fed is not serious about fighting inflation, let’s get that straight. This obsession of trying to get a soft landing means we will be at inflation for a long time until all the previous fed stimulus money runs out. Recession is inevitable. The longer you wait, the longer it’s going to take to recover from it. Now on top of a war in Ukraine, lockdown in China, global warming, food shortages all adds more to inflation on top of the inflation created by the fed. All these things isn’t going away any time soon which the fed has no control over. Too much liquidity chasing too little goods and still very inexpensive borrowing costs which will create even more liquidity.
No, the Fed isn't going to be flip flopping on rates. What is really doing is winding down the current very long lived bull market, 13 years. It will create a bear market, i.e. falling prices, down trending economy. This will go on for a year or so, and then they will introduce new stimulus with lower interest rates to create a new period of economic expansion. This is what has come to be known as the Business Cycle.
The Fed hasnt been right in years. Now, unlike AOC, I don't have a degree in economics from Boston college, but this is economics 101 stuff, plus I live in the real world.
Won't the Fed's steady and regular selling off of its balance sheet (a huge quantity of various types of bond, and please feel free to better specify what the balance sheet is, since I am mostly ignorant of what it is) relieve pressure to dramatically raise rates?
They're screwed either way. Continue to prop up the market then u have to keep purchasing assets n make inflation worse....or.....taper off asset buying n raise interest rates helping calm inflation but watch the market burn.. there is no soft landing here n this what happens when we declare businesses "to big to fail" n give them blank checks
Totally agree they will flip flop. I'm buying yen and 5 yr CDs at 3% today. I'll just buy more yen and more CDs as rates increase. I try not to be greedy and try to wait for the market to turn. 3% sounds small but adds up to a very nice return over 5 yrs. I may buy some 10 yr at 3% too
@@anonymousAJ The main components of inflation right now are housing, medical, and college costs. If you own a house, are not sick, and already finished college, you can do very well. Besides houses are about to quickly drop in price.
Yen?? The yen is crashing due to the BOJ trying to hold to the 25 basis points yield curve control while central banks are hiking. El-Arien wrote a great piece on this this morning.
The worst-case scenario may be accepting inflation between 3% to 4% and avoiding a recession, and at the same time achieving accelerated/decent growth in the economy. And after clearing off all the uncertainties in the country, then aim for 2% inflation.
Hey sri what planet u living on? That is a Goldilock assumption not worst case. There is no growth in America without all the government spending. They had to raise rates because our debt became toilet paper yielding nothing and since no buyers they printed hence stupid govt inflation. Again not sure where your living this is a mess bro
When the whole world is drunk in debt. Drowning in debt. You have no choice. But to keep the infusion going. Hoping to create a new system. Or hoping a better one exists. In the mean time you keep injecting more debt into the patient (world economy). Because once you withdraw, the patient might...
"Artificial sources of growth" resulted in this stagflation...so the fix is more "artificial sources of growth"....Rich people forced the FED to prop up the stocks/assets through money printing/QE and zero inflation every time economy tried to clear the excesses (aka, RECESSION). Get rid of the favorable cap gains and make the rich pay at the same % as paycheck people, aka known as losers such as police, doctor, nurse, teacher, laborer....Asset holders are sucking the blood out of public, wealth GAP at all time high
I see. So anyone with an asset is evil. QE was designed to get money into everyone's hands, including yours. What you chose to do with that money was your choice. Typical Americans. Blame everyone else for their first world woes. If you wanted to buy assets like stocks or something else you could have done so, instead of blowing it on another hamburger or six
@@darrenprior6339 Yes, asset holders are evil to the extent they don't pay their fair share in taxes. Wealthiest 400 american families paid 8% income tax in last decade while all paycheck people pay the "ordinary tax". You have $30M in stocks which doubled since 2020, so FED's QE gifted you with an incremental $30M in wealth. Poor got their 2K stimulus and "per your advice" invested in stocks, which also doubled. My stimulus gave me $2k in incremental wealth while you made $30M. FED's QE is good for asset holders. That's why republicans rushed to get UNLIMITED QE so that their wealthy buddies reverse the stock market slide, not that they worry about poor
They are already planning ongoing negative post crash - and their potential creation of CBDC - method of payment direct to consumer wallets would have horrific effects on the global economy.
@@kanscopeichel491 correct - that would be the worse case, all of this corruption to protect the wealth of American Oligarchs and their fellow travelers.
@@frederickmiles8815 indeed. But that wealth isn’t just protected, that of the middle class and pensioners is being transferred while savers are bankrupted. Nonetheless, the cbdc path seems well greased for ignorant masses who, once impoverished, will gladly accept
@@kanscopeichel491 The true irony is this action by the central planners will cause actual run away hyper-inflation; as the real economy further drifts from supply, demand, cost, and production - making wealth gaps isnt chasms. The American Oligarchy reminds me of the willie coyote cartoons that run off a cliff and refuse to look down. The only saving grace i have is this is our 2nd gilded age and that one was also killed by pandemic, depression, and world war - therefore we are hopefully on the last leg of this sad journey.
Economic experts agree : “ ordinary citizens globally , need to become their own central banker “ Central banks GLOBALLY , are stockpiling physical gold as we speak ! WHY ? ( look it up ) If you can’t afford to buy physical gold - GET PHYSICAL SILVER ! It is presently over 50% below its two time high of $50.00 an ounce . This is a bargain ; it will not stay this low forever .
Yes, and the Chinese will always continue to buy treasuries with rock-bottom returns even as we dilute the value of the treasuries by issuing new money
When the money printing stops you will find out how rich we aren’t
I am so impressed with El-Erian's perspectives over the last two years. For those who have followed him, the markets movements come as no real surprise. I would have to say that his prognostications have been the best available.
If you followed him the past 2 years, you would have not participated in the market at all and have been sitting in cash the whole time, even during the 2020 March lows. He is a perma bear. You would have missed the tech rally, the commodity rally, the energy rally, the sp500 index rally; all of which, if you sold now, you would be up between 60-100+%
@@holyscythe Odd. Two years ago he regularly indicated the bull market was likely sustainable due to massive liquidy injections from the FED, but that at some point inflation might become an issue. So, I stayed 100% invested in equities through late last year as his warnings about FED policy and inflation increased. I went to 70% cash by December, avoiding the declines in January, and have been mostly in cash and using short positions (SQQQ's, primarily) since March. So, his opinions have resulted in consistent gains, speaking for myself. The one area I disagree with him is in terms of BTC. He still believes crypto has a limited place in a portfolio, while I am 100% short on crypto using BITO puts. I have found his guidance exceptionally helpful.
@@jlvandat69 you're shorting crypto?
@@holyscythe Exactly. He's a macroeconomist, not a trader. He always claimed the bounce from march 2020 is temporary, he briefly admitted he was wrong in the second half of 2020. But before the 'mania' phase in the beginning of 2021 he became extremely bearish again. Missing the biggest moves completely. Dissmissing market rotations, that made tons of money even as the indexes stalled in the second half of 2021. Repeating 'once the liguidity dries out' is his mantra. I don't listen to permabulls (Tom Lee :-)) or permabears (El-Erian, Schiff, Grantham etc..). They have always their agendas to make their stance sound viable. El-Erian makes his money as a 'talking head', not by investing.
@@jlvandat69 I just went back to watch his interviews from 1-2 years ago, and he never tells you to buy equities - he's always been "I would be careful..." - go check for yourself. El-Erian has been overly cautious in the past 1-2 years. Honestly, the fact that you have and are making the trades you are doing currently speaks to you as a trader.
You are giving yourself too little credit. You are taking his information and making smart decisions.
Do you have any social media where we can follow your trades? at what target do you plan to close the SQQQ position? what other long positions do you have? What is your put on BITO (strike/expiry)?
Amazing how people can't fathom that the markets and high valuations of stocks were propped up by FED QE the past two years and now prices are reverting back to the mean pre-pandemic. Couple the unwinding of the FED balance sheet and high-inflation you have a recipe for disaster. The whole "priced-in" myth perpetrated by talking heads only applies to bond markets as evidenced by the increased yields, not the equity markets as many people conflate the two when discussing "the market." The best thing to do now is a Volker-move that'll reset the economy and markets painfully and quickly instead of the gradual death of .25bps hikes that risks stagflation.
The FED's mandate is to contain inflation and constrain unemployment. It is not to artificially prop up GenZ pseudo-investor stock portfolios. Given a choice between recession and hyperinflation, I'd take a recession 10 out of 10 times. Recessions are healthy corrections to market and economic conditions, hyperinflation is not healthy ever. Maybe people should be buying things with cash instead of loans for things they can't afford like overvalued homes and Teslas...
Great comment!
I agree with you 100%. The problem is the US is a country that absolutely hates recessions. Their fed will artificially stimulate the economy if necessary just to avoid a small recession. It’s been since tech bubble their mandate is to avoid recessions at all costs.
It always will be. If the grow cannot catch up and when the QE and low interest ends, you'll see a lot of naked ppl.
"contain inflation and constrain unemployment', yes, but those are two mutually opposed goals, usually.
Spoken like a salty boomer
FED is doing a great job of increasing the inequality/wealth gap
That is their entire job. The sole purpose of the present day Federal Reserve is to feed free money from nowhere for doing nothing to its owners on Wall Street via asset price inflation.
@@rons5319 Not sure you are correct their pal. Their job is to maintain health of the economy. Not to transfer wealth from those who work harder and longer to those who don't ever have to work at all
Capitalism
@@jerequan1282 What I wrote in my comment is not the intent of what the Fed is supposed to do. But that is what the greed of Wall Street has morphed it into.
That is why it was created. So the big guys can win on the boom AND win on the bust.
This is very good. The Fed is so late on inflation that the market knows the fed can not fight inflation without causing a down turn that will force the fed to feed inflation to correct the down turn. Impossible in the end. A train wreck waiting to happen.
Not a train wreck… We will have high inflation for a while
Thankyou dear..
Why is news so darn short!... would be nice to have an actual conversation with Mohamed... This is NOT enough information worthy of GOOD news CONTENT. Thanks
Watch it at 0.50% speed
@@jdingle8885 good one. Or go watch Bloomberg tv lol
The Fed would need interest rates at 10% or higher to slow the current runaway inflation. U.S. government debt is now around $30 Trillion. The government would default on the debt if the Fed raised interest rates high enough. So instead, they will allow inflation to take over.
You are assuming that the inflation is only on the demand side, there could be a supply side as well which will become less as output increases. A recession can be deflationary itself. Call me crazy but i would really want to know what the market thinks the interest rate should be.
It's a crap shoot. But Powell is an idiot. Who appointed him?
@@mvs9122 The Federal Reserve knows they overdid it with interest rates at zero for too long and insane amounts of QE. If it was purely supply side inflation, they wouldn't be raising interest rates to combat it.
Supply side is definitely putting more pressure on inflation though. And the supply is about to get much smaller. Food shortages, chip shortage, energy shortages, supply is going down almost across the board and won't rebound for years.
Imagine landing spacecraft on a planet with visual picture of the ground that’s taken a month ago. Soft landing can’t be done! They will go too far and then realize they already crashed.
The US FED when from "Transitory Inflation" to "Peak Inflation" to holy shit they stopped snorting coke and realize inflations out of control and they have to increase rates more and more to stop inflation.
END THE FED. Let’s get it over with.
How is high inflation a "lesser evil"? For Wall Sl. maybe but for regular people high inflation is by far the greater evil.
Inflation is the lesser evil for main street as well. Having a job is more important than losing purchasing power. Paying less for debt is also more important than getting a return on savings.
@@meh4770 When your paycheck doesn't buy anything, you won't work anymore. Inflation is the number one concern. Stocks and house prices are going down whether you like it or not.
Because you and I being poor and homeless is less evil than some poor billionaire losing half of his paper wealth.
He changed his tune in December of 2023. Interest rate hikes have stopped, now they are talking about possible interest rate CUTS in the spring and/or middle/end of the year of 2024. The Fed so far has threaded the needle, thank god for the American consumer.
End the Fed
Whatever Mohamed been bear for years. With that being said, I do agree we need nice big flush. This is soooo overdue, FED screwed this up since 2008. Been pumping market over a decade. Let it reset and FED never again should intervene. Let the market have bull/bear cycle on its own.
FED is sucking out the value from $12Trillion Dollars outside US and investing it in US economy. This is a profitable business for US, but this business might be lost forever if US continues being greedy.
Cash is King, time to sit on the sidelines, this will get ugly.
El mercado bursátil de Acciones/Forex cambia constantemente y cada operador exitoso quiere mejorar, actualizar, mejorar y mejorar. Incluso los expertos con muchos años de experiencia y grandes ganancias en sus cuentas bancarias aún trabajan duro para analizar y mejorar la forma en que operan. Esto se aplica de manera más importante a los nuevos comerciantes y aquellos con experiencia mínima, el Sr. Stuart Michael ofrece una gran ayuda aquí. Una estrategia de análisis y mejora le brinda una forma estructurada de maximizar su potencial al mismo tiempo que capitaliza la parte buena de sus estrategias comerciales y de administración de dinero. Esto lo ayuda a ser más productivo y rentable a largo plazo y crea un cambio de paradigma en las estructuras/condiciones del mercado en constante cambio
He estado operando con el Sr. Stuart Michael durante meses, ahora no es como otros corredores que miente sobre el fracaso de su operación.
Lo que aprecio del Sr. Stuart Michael es su constancia para obtener grandes beneficios. Estoy en mi noveno comercio con él.
Esto es realmente útil para mi situación.
He visto diferentes recomendaciones sobre el Sr. Stuart Michael, debe ser muy excepcional para que la gente hable tan bien de él.
Mi primera experiencia con él me dio la seguridad que me ha hecho invertir sin miedo a perder
The Fed is so screwed. We’ve never been closer to a mega crisis than this. These guys in this video spent 3 minutes explaining what could have been stated in one line. “There’s no way out”
Agree. At this point we're looking at a recession or worse. When things start to overheat the Fed will flip-flop which is actually going to cause the recession. It's amazing how the Fed can manipulate the system.
FED hawkish my @ss. Its just talk. They've only risen the rate by a quarter point. Powell thinks he can talk down inflation. Good luck with that.
@@deesus1085 Fed should do nothing for the markets, only for the economy. Stop the tail wagging the dog.
I agree, not said enough. Powells literal plan is to talk a lot and do nothing hoping that words will fix the issue.
Just raise the interest rate where it should be. Let the chips fall where they may. get the recession over with this is ridiculous. 🙄
Too many companies are overleveraged... the economy will be in ruins... huge unemployment to follow
El Erian for Fed chair!
Bring back the gold standard
Anytime now the FED will go back to zero interest and start the mega exponential unlimited QE...just so that asset holders never lose
'... [Fed Chair chasing inflation] we've seen this in DEVELOPING countries, it's not a good dynamic to be in.' ... this is the US economy we're talking about! Wow, we're in BIG trouble.
Agree
We are not like Germany. The Netherlands set to deliver hard weapon to Ukraine (c).🇳🇱🇺🇦 Stand with Ukraine, don’t be afraid.
One thing i'm not sure about rate hike impact , why uk keep raise interest rate consecutively but market is still strong pre-war. Maybe higher rate will be good for market but only some specific stock
No way, El, they're stuck. That balance sheet is massive. They can't afford to flip-flop, because all it would do is undercut companies' growth potential in the long term after a recovery
USG can't service Federal debt without inflating
Bingo.
0:53 "Lesser Evil"... by whose vantage point.
Lesser Evil for corporations = extended inflation and more poverty.
Lesser Evil for commoners = pull the Band-aid, Paul Volcker like rates, a hard but a short correction.
Inflation reduces purchasing power from the consumer. On the other hand a market correction costs corporations and forces them to compete for the consumers, becoming more efficient.
I advocate for a correction in lieu of a slow death of a million cuts (inflation).
He is so right, the minute the market truly going into a tailspin the Fed will come to its rescue and the bottom half of the country can go to hell and suck on their 15% annual inflation (as measured as it was in the 1970s before the government didnt like what it was saying and changed how it was calculated). Jay Powell is a private equity guy and a millionaire. This country is built for the upper crust. Jay will deliver rate cuts and QE probably by October.
Yes once the small retailers have panic sold their stocks after a 20% S&P correction the fed will do another round of QE.
Agree
The stock markets go up, and always go down. We have noplace to go but down at this point
As long as the Fed keeps flip-flopping between "hawkish and dovish"...
Double the rates and watch the fun.
Too many people follow seriously. Each time he predicts the Fed will have to pause or 'flip-flop' the greater the pain when the Fed follows through on its tightening.
I've predicted Stagflation for many years, because it's the one result the Fed can achieve. We need to bring back WIN buttons.
India's RBI is better than FED.
They need to heavy front load rate hike 1% next 3 meetings
We need to shrink government and handouts. We literally can't survive as a nation of takers.
"flip-flopping" equals congress and the president will get involved with a new law; when that time comes.
did Powell make the Federal Reserve late for political purposes (as agreed to in closed door sessions in the Senate to end/reform the Fed?)
When you say president, you do mean his handlers correct? That sack of potatoes brains is one missed pill from spoon fed.
We all know FEDs going to take action at the very last minute.
The fed is not serious about fighting inflation, let’s get that straight. This obsession of trying to get a soft landing means we will be at inflation for a long time until all the previous fed stimulus money runs out. Recession is inevitable. The longer you wait, the longer it’s going to take to recover from it. Now on top of a war in Ukraine, lockdown in China, global warming, food shortages all adds more to inflation on top of the inflation created by the fed. All these things isn’t going away any time soon which the fed has no control over. Too much liquidity chasing too little goods and still very inexpensive borrowing costs which will create even more liquidity.
Centralized banking must collapse. There is no possible way this can just keep going......
The market is like high powered jet zigzagging 2000mph. And the fed is a slow motion snail that is napping and yawing along the way. Time to wake up!
Will it? if other countries inflation rates outpace the US…triggering inflows into the US?
Jonathan the money is booring more men to us🐃
No, the Fed isn't going to be flip flopping on rates. What is really doing is winding down the current very long lived bull market, 13 years. It will create a bear market, i.e. falling prices, down trending economy. This will go on for a year or so, and then they will introduce new stimulus with lower interest rates to create a new period of economic expansion. This is what has come to be known as the Business Cycle.
The Fed hasnt been right in years. Now, unlike AOC, I don't have a degree in economics from Boston college, but this is economics 101 stuff, plus I live in the real world.
Won't the Fed's steady and regular selling off of its balance sheet (a huge quantity of various types of bond, and please feel free to better specify what the balance sheet is, since I am mostly ignorant of what it is) relieve pressure to dramatically raise rates?
Yes, until they look at unemployment
If you sell bond then you put upward pressure on rates (remember that bond prices are inverse of the yields)
Fwip fwopping? Be vewy afwaid!
They're screwed either way. Continue to prop up the market then u have to keep purchasing assets n make inflation worse....or.....taper off asset buying n raise interest rates helping calm inflation but watch the market burn.. there is no soft landing here n this what happens when we declare businesses "to big to fail" n give them blank checks
STAGFLATION
I guess Md EE missed out on the change in World Order which will be a major change.
Totally agree they will flip flop. I'm buying yen and 5 yr CDs at 3% today. I'll just buy more yen and more CDs as rates increase. I try not to be greedy and try to wait for the market to turn. 3% sounds small but adds up to a very nice return over 5 yrs. I may buy some 10 yr at 3% too
You're getting a 3% return while prices are rising 17% YoY lol
@@anonymousAJ The main components of inflation right now are housing, medical, and college costs. If you own a house, are not sick, and already finished college, you can do very well. Besides houses are about to quickly drop in price.
@@rons5319 have you been to the grocery store?
Yen?? The yen is crashing due to the BOJ trying to hold to the 25 basis points yield curve control while central banks are hiking. El-Arien wrote a great piece on this this morning.
How does he keep his eyes open with the weight of those eyebrows?
😂
End up flip-flopping? Dear Mohammad, have you not noticed yet that flipfloping passes off as an actual strategy for these clowns?
To flip-flop they have to take action first, their strategy is to squawk a lot.
The worst-case scenario may be accepting inflation between 3% to 4% and avoiding a recession, and at the same time achieving accelerated/decent growth in the economy. And after clearing off all the uncertainties in the country, then aim for 2% inflation.
It would be great to get inflation down to 4%
Current CPI is showing over 8, and the old methodology shows over 17
sounds more like the best case scenario to me
Hey sri what planet u living on? That is a Goldilock assumption not worst case. There is no growth in America without all the government spending. They had to raise rates because our debt became toilet paper yielding nothing and since no buyers they printed hence stupid govt inflation. Again not sure where your living this is a mess bro
When the whole world is drunk in debt. Drowning in debt. You have no choice. But to keep the infusion going. Hoping to create a new system. Or hoping a better one exists. In the mean time you keep injecting more debt into the patient (world economy). Because once you withdraw, the patient might...
"Artificial sources of growth" resulted in this stagflation...so the fix is more "artificial sources of growth"....Rich people forced the FED to prop up the stocks/assets through money printing/QE and zero inflation every time economy tried to clear the excesses (aka, RECESSION). Get rid of the favorable cap gains and make the rich pay at the same % as paycheck people, aka known as losers such as police, doctor, nurse, teacher, laborer....Asset holders are sucking the blood out of public, wealth GAP at all time high
I see. So anyone with an asset is evil. QE was designed to get money into everyone's hands, including yours. What you chose to do with that money was your choice. Typical Americans. Blame everyone else for their first world woes. If you wanted to buy assets like stocks or something else you could have done so, instead of blowing it on another hamburger or six
@@darrenprior6339 Yes, asset holders are evil to the extent they don't pay their fair share in taxes. Wealthiest 400 american families paid 8% income tax in last decade while all paycheck people pay the "ordinary tax". You have $30M in stocks which doubled since 2020, so FED's QE gifted you with an incremental $30M in wealth. Poor got their 2K stimulus and "per your advice" invested in stocks, which also doubled. My stimulus gave me $2k in incremental wealth while you made $30M. FED's QE is good for asset holders. That's why republicans rushed to get UNLIMITED QE so that their wealthy buddies reverse the stock market slide, not that they worry about poor
They are already planning ongoing negative post crash - and their potential creation of CBDC - method of payment direct to consumer wallets would have horrific effects on the global economy.
And an elimination of privacy, along with personal sovereignty. Basically, you’ll be the bank’s B!tch, or slave if you prefer…
@@kanscopeichel491 correct - that would be the worse case, all of this corruption to protect the wealth of American Oligarchs and their fellow travelers.
@@frederickmiles8815 indeed. But that wealth isn’t just protected, that of the middle class and pensioners is being transferred while savers are bankrupted. Nonetheless, the cbdc path seems well greased for ignorant masses who, once impoverished, will gladly accept
@@kanscopeichel491 The true irony is this action by the central planners will cause actual run away hyper-inflation; as the real economy further drifts from supply, demand, cost, and production - making wealth gaps isnt chasms. The American Oligarchy reminds me of the willie coyote cartoons that run off a cliff and refuse to look down. The only saving grace i have is this is our 2nd gilded age and that one was also killed by pandemic, depression, and world war - therefore we are hopefully on the last leg of this sad journey.
Economic experts agree :
“ ordinary citizens globally , need to become their own central banker “
Central banks GLOBALLY , are stockpiling physical gold as we speak !
WHY ? ( look it up )
If you can’t afford to buy physical gold - GET PHYSICAL SILVER ! It is presently over 50% below its two time high of $50.00 an ounce . This is a bargain ; it will not stay this low forever .
I think 8 rate hikes are priced in
😚😚😚😚😚😚☺☺☺😚😚😚
This is no major problem as the FED can print unlimited currency without any consequences.
you are litreally seeing the consequences now
she is been sarcastic .. at least I hope :)
Yes, and the Chinese will always continue to buy treasuries with rock-bottom returns even as we dilute the value of the treasuries by issuing new money
not aging well.
الہڑ پن کی روک لگا کر روکیں گے لیکن ھوگا
انشاء جی دو ایک برس میں 30 ھمارا سن ھوگا
wah expert with flip-flopping saying others..
BUY ONLY ETHERUM AND BITCOIN AND HODL!
Down periscope. Dive! Dive! Dive!