Glad to hear about the employment reports This quota has been beneficial, and the current administration is doing everything it can to combat inflation. Regarding the market, several highly valued stocks have generated profits, and expanding stocks have also done exceptionally well.
There are so many jobs available for the first time in a long time as many don’t feel the need to go back to their jobs, and so many are resigning to get better jobs.
@@cameronwilson4587 true, since the pandemic I kind of switched to drop shipping and currently am promoting my brand. I see no reason to work for others anymore.
@@archiemoore3515 I was laid off back in February, it was rough but am glad I got my dream job working for Microsoft. Also having a good investment in both valued and growth stocks gives me enough financial cover till the economy fully recovers.
If you think FED with 2.5% rate ... has reduced commodity prices by 20% and more ... and got us out of the -30% depression of 2020 as not credible ... can you help me find a better fed? (The fed is behind the curve on inflation but that is NOT unforgivable as you say).
@@titusp9488 got us out 2020 with the money printer, nothing to really applaud. and how can you say them being behind the curve on inflation not unforgivable? its by far the biggest risk to the economy and future
It is AMAZING taht almost no one is paying attention to how the FED is causing us all to focus only on its short term interest rate. However, it's mostly about the FED stop purchasing long term bonds, and letting the free market decide what is the rate. The FED is creating this entire show around interest rates in order to keep everyone focusing on that, instead of focusing on its BRUTAL intervention in the long term bond market. This intervention is the significant part in holding the market from falling, since once the FED stops buying all these long term bonds, their rates will rise DRAMATICALLY. This allows the FED to hike rates without TOTALLY COLLAPSING the long term bond market and the housing market with it immediately. Although it started reducing its purchasing of long term bonds, the FED is doing it EXTREMELY SLOW, while running the "short term interst rate" show like it is the most important thing. Obviously, the media and all of us are totally hypnotized by the FED interest rate show, just like a hypnotized person looking at the pendulum in hypnosis show. And all of this is in order to show that the FED is fighting inflation. SHOW TIME will arrive when the FED really pulls out its sticky fingers from the bond market. Have a nice weekend!!!
Yes this is really weird, and I'm shocked that the financial media is not talking about it much, much more. It's very strange that they are not rapidly decreasing the balance sheet, almost as if they have some ulterior motive for not doing so, because there's no reason for them not to.
your's is an excellent analysis. So the fed is praying that housing falls by atleast 20%. The institutional and foreign investors are holding properties. The home-owner will incur losses of 100-200,000$ on their mortgage. Fed cannot bring the rates down in the next 5 to 10 years. I think Fed is annihilated and has no tools or credibility. Biden should have fired Powell 2 years ago.
@@KP99 you mean other than a worldwide economic collapse? I ain’t sure of much but I can tell you with virtual certainty that $9t debt will be passed on for generations. REAL QT? Sure…………
@@kevinlue4756 they were supposed to start in June, and I think they started a very little, but they are not doing anywhere near as much as they had indicated. I believe they're only doing about 10 billion per month, when they were supposed to be doing about 75 billion. Those numbers may not be exact, but you get my drift.
too bad ...his point always changing the goal post ... last week was FED late to pivot (dovish) and now FEd is behind the curve should have been more hawkish? El-Erian does not have a clue .. if he was head of the fed ... the economy would turn on a dime? NO ... he would have crashed it last year and not caused the fast recovery in 2020.
Common sense tells you that if people continue to purchase and prices are high they are not going to lower prices. You have to intervene to stop purchase so prices can go down.
i like how El Arian included labor force participation in his statement. unemployment and jobs numbers mean absolutely nothing if you dont look at them alongside labor force participation
In what way is this helping you understand the report better? If participation had increased instead of declined, does that make this robust jobs number more inflationary, or less inflationary, etc? Just wondering what additional read you get from it.
@@KP99 he only mentioned it once at the very beginning, so he didn't even really talk about it. but at least he mentioned it. the reason this is important is because labor force participation rate has been steadily declining for years. it peaked at about 67% in 2000. hit a low of 60% due to the pandemic. rebounded to 62.4% in march 2022 and has been declining since then why is this important? because as long as labor force participation rate is low and falling, it doesnt matter if you have 0% unemployment rate. the real metric - how many americans are working vs not working, remains low and declining government and media will intentionally leave out labor force participation rate and just quote unemployment rate in order to justify the lie that the economy is doing well the truth is, economy is doing horribly. again, does it matter if unemployment is at 0% if labor force participation is falling?
@@KP-by4eu rising wages is another gov lie. Wages might be rising, but not as fast as inflation. That means real wages are still falling even as nominal wages are rising.
@@jp92382 ... Firstly, you and KP's conversation is so much better than this video. As far as the unemployment rate and the workforce participation rate (including U-6) is concerned, I think the Fed really is having a tough time figuring things out because so many people have quit or retired from their jobs/careers or sold their businesses while only in their late 40's or mid 50's over the last 10 years or so. Here where i live this has been going on for at least 10 years or longer. On the other end of the spectrum, I've seen many of the younger folks switching jobs for better pay or benefits about every two years - they also want and take lots of time off between jobs too. Wow, for those who really want to work, be it a job or a profession or career, these are the "Salad Days". Peace.
@@KP99 participation rate is 85% in Finland. 85% and they keep developing jobs. The USA rate is probably still under 65. 65%. 20% less. And most of Europe is well over 70%. And they have better healthcare according to statistics. 6 weeks of vacation and real sick leave as well as way cheaper education which may include living subsidies and mass transportation. We here pay less in taxes, and only about 10% less, but we pay way more for all these others. In fact this shows us how Democratic socialism is supposed to work.
So here are some employment categories for the new America: 1. Living off government. 2. Stirring sh_t up on Twitter. 3. Crook 4. Con Artist 4. Drug Seller 5. Parent Milker 6. Professional protester. 6. Day trader 7. Sports junky 8. Professional video gammer If we include these in the employment numbers we will have full employment
Interest rates this far below the rate of inflation mean that fixed income investors are offering up their wealth to be transferred to the leveraged owners of real assets (e.g. real estate, businesses etc). Eventually fixed income investors will grow tired of this arrangement. Why lend money when you can borrow it below the rate of inflation and buy real assets?
@@KP99 Yeah, it makes total sense! People are still borrowing money below the rate of inflation and buying real assets. Thanks to the Fed’s little tiny baby hikes. More is going to have to be done… I don’t know how you fix human behavior. It’s a simple point that’s 100% worth repeating.
you give the fed too little credit .. lets NOT forget we just got out of depression slow in 2020 .... 2021 was a recovery ... yes they are behind the curve on inflation but lets not ignore the fact with 2.5% rate they have cute commodity prices by more than 20% (since march). so ... do more home work ... talk less think more :P Economy need to stabilize and a little inflation is a bad is not permanent.
Honestly f. Cckk those people who are getting jobs. Not like we shame them for taking social benefit or anything. I hate when people are pulling themselves up by their bootstraps and actually work. Not enough lazy people not working and being poor.
Well the issue you can’t bring down this inflation because increasing jobs is inflationary…. It’s obvious the USA is still growing because the millennial population generation is now the main people being taxed
The jobs report is bad news for the Fed, but it is worth reminding ourselves that none of the increases in the Federal Funds rate, except possibly the small one in March, have had enough time to effect economic activity. Given the usual lags, nearly all of the impact of the increases in policy rates is still in the pipeline.
Even if that ends up being the case, it accentuates their biggest mistake, waiting this long to change stance. And still they have talked more than what they have done up to this point. Powell needs to stop playing psychologist at every interview and let policy speak for him.
@@BrandonClark-StocksPassports the monetary repercussions are only part of it. Creating a mob of lazy zombies clamoring for stimulus checks and zero percent interest rates is the largest issue. It's like a spolied kid that never learns the results of bad decision-making. In the end they end up in ruin, and most of the times taking their parents along with them.
Higher prices are causing additional members of households to go out and find jobs. This larger pool of job seekers will have a dampening effect on wages and inflation in general. JMHO.
I am wondering the strong employment could due to the drop in the productivities (employers have to hire extra personnel to maintain the productivities)? I am hoping I am wrong!
If supply increases faster than jobs and wages, it could mean lower inflation regardless! Biden administration has been improving infrastructure for easing supply chain constraints(ex: longer hours at port) which may work in this regard.
Let's at least credit the Fed for one thing: enough incompetence to reignite the decades-old debate over discretionary vs. rule (Taylor/Friedman) policy that ALL grad econ/finance students had to become familiar with. 😄
cause the fed wanted to give institutions and fund managers time to unload bags on retail when its been having the biggest interest in the stock market for the past 3 years to take all that stimulus away and give bonuses to themselves.
The Philosophy of Right for the Fed is you have to have a minimal unemployment to curtail inflation; this part of no part is the price for the capital to reproduce/innovate itself; unemployment is the Rose in the cross of the present
How many millennials does it take to fill the shoes of a boomer? Job growth is not because of economic expansion. It is an economy in search of the most experienced and highly skilled workers that are missing. In other words the great job numbers now and over the past 10 years have little to do with the economy and everything to do with labor momentum. The boomers have been retiring and as they have, businesses have been forced to pass the baton through additional hiring for training and to fill the very big shoes of the leaving boomers.
Bad news for FED credibility? Hmm... If there were a number for that one, it would be in the same situation as interest rates not long ago, to go any lower, it would need to get into the negatives. They have either completely missed the mark by undershooting monetary policy for the past year and a half, or they have different goals/plans than what they communicate. First they poured gasoline on the inflation fire by overstimulating the economy through MBS and treasury purchases (this while fiscal policy was on overdrive with stimulus/moratoriums). Now they're tickling 9%+ inflation with 2.25% FED funds rate, and calling it "neutral". It's almost as if they have different goals than the ones they articulate. Yet Powell has the audacity to go on live TV and state that first time home buyer's need a reset. That's like handing a band aid to someone with a gunshot wound. It's very galant of you to worry about breaking the economy Mr. FED chair, but sorry to be the bearer of bad news when I tell you: you broke the economy already when you left interest rates at 0% for a year and a half.
The FED does not care about inflation, the more they flood the market with QE and low interest rates the stronger the FED becomes. It is all about power.
Full time employment drop again, labor participation rate drop. This is bad for stocks, fed has the raise, people are still getting poorer so spending power is still not returning
There is a definition problem here. The “neutral rate” refers to a level of FFR that would sustain maximum employment and CPI at 2% IF the economy were at equilibrium having those desired employment and inflation levels. So, Powell is telling us that the current FFR is the level he expects to have AFTER he has adjusted rates as needed to obtain the employment and inflation levels he seeks.
| CAME HERE TO LEARN HOW TO INVEST AFTER LISTENING TO A GUY ON RADIO TALK ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF INVESTING AND HOW HE MADE $460,000 IN 4 MONTHS FROM $160k, SOMEHOW THIS VIDEO HAS HELPED SHED LIGHT ON SOME THINGS, BUT I'M STILL CONFUSED, I'M A NEWBIE AND I'M OPEN TO IDEAS....
It is possible to produce superior performance provided you do something different from the majority. However most of us tend to pay more attention to the shiniest position in the market to the cost of proper diversification.
This is obviously good times. The worker has the say now because there aren’t as many of them with the boomers retiring . We have less available workers. It’s happening around the world but less so here because we had kids . China did not.
El Erian creates panic and wants to just sound different...if it goes well than no one cares and if it goes down south then hes the genius that called it out
He called the covid crash at 3300, before it dropped to 2200, when very few others were doing so. He saved me a lot of money, and also made me some on the downside.
Well it's nice to see new jobs added for the sake of having all the same jobs available that before the pandemic but regardless of what state the economy's and we need to get that labor force participation rate up a lot of people have not returned there have been just able to wing it with maybe just one income earner in the household rather than two or even more of course some of it is due to being the house spouse or for childcare or homeschooling but even with all that said the labor force participation rate could stand to be increased from what I picked up some people are in fear of having to revisit all the dramas they had to listen to when they had to leave the workforce who would ever want to revisit all those workplace dramas if they can get by without it we need to make the workplace more attractive not just for the money
The best thing that could happen to the US economy is for the jobs reports to continue to rocket like this one. It's exactly this economic strength lead by additional productivity that will naturally bring down inflation expectations. Mohamad El-Erian is just pissing in the wind because he's been wrong about stocks and now he's way behind the curve. What you are seeing here is the power of the free market and capitalism taking all that excess liquidity from the previous QEs and reallocating it into the proper places to maximize returns. This in turn will bring down pricing pressures for goods and services and at the same time advance a higher average standard of living in the US, which will drive both new investment and at the same time support the US Dollar.
So much of that excess money was pumped into housing which caused skyrocketing prices that many people cannot afford. Also caused rents to skyrocket which is leading to more homelessness. So, no, what you're saying is not what's happening.
@@KP99 Tell that to the unemployed people who just got those jobs. Now they can afford better rentals and some can now buy homes. The real estate market will correct when supply increases, when will happen when there are more people working in that industry to build more apartments and all the things that go into that construction. We have a labor shortage now. Without a greater work force, who's going to build out the additional housing supply to help bring down rents and home prices?
@@AnthonyGiallourakis Supply was perfectly fine in 2019, and the unemployment rate was also very low. The population size has not changed so much since then to cause a 50% increases in home prices. Those increases are completely due to the excess QE money that you mentioned being pumped into housing. And all the people who are being hired are not being hired at wages to keep up with 9% inflation, so their real wages are making them fall behind, not helping them get ahead. Nobody will tell you that right now they have an easier time affording housing than they did in 2019.
@@KP99 The COVID lockdowns and the supply constraints placed upon the building industry created a two year supply reduction. What did you expect to happen? Prices and demand got out of balance with supply. That's working itself through now and in a year or two, everything will come back into balance. Don't blame the FED and their money printing. That saved us all from a complete economic crash. Blame the bureaucrats who overreacted to the pandemic. Their overreaching into the economy was to blame for the higher rents and housing shortage we are seeing now. Now that we're getting back to work, and supply is starting to relax in raw materials, housing will settle down and prices for home and rents will moderate.
@@AnthonyGiallourakis What additional productivity? GDP's in the toilet. Remember this famous quote "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output." - The great Milton Friedman, 1963. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Created by increasing the money supply (aka money printing). And cured by removing a quantity of money.
Glad to hear about the employment reports This quota has been beneficial, and the current administration is doing everything it can to combat inflation. Regarding the market, several highly valued stocks have generated profits, and expanding stocks have also done exceptionally well.
It’s bad for the labour force unfortunately.
I believe that the open positions are only for low-wage positions because some businesses are still laying off employees.
There are so many jobs available for the first time in a long time as many don’t feel the need to go back to their jobs, and so many are resigning to get better jobs.
@@cameronwilson4587 true, since the pandemic I kind of switched to drop shipping and currently am promoting my brand. I see no reason to work for others anymore.
@@archiemoore3515 I was laid off back in February, it was rough but am glad I got my dream job working for Microsoft. Also having a good investment in both valued and growth stocks gives me enough financial cover till the economy fully recovers.
Wait.. The fed has credibility?
I must be watching a different fed.
If you think FED with 2.5% rate ... has reduced commodity prices by 20% and more ... and got us out of the -30% depression of 2020 as not credible ... can you help me find a better fed? (The fed is behind the curve on inflation but that is NOT unforgivable as you say).
@@titusp9488 Ok Janet 😂
(I'd reply, but your comment is ridiculous.)
@@titusp9488 got us out 2020 with the money printer, nothing to really applaud. and how can you say them being behind the curve on inflation not unforgivable? its by far the biggest risk to the economy and future
It is AMAZING taht almost no one is paying attention to how the FED is causing us all to focus only on its short term interest rate.
However, it's mostly about the FED stop purchasing long term bonds, and letting the free market decide what is the rate.
The FED is creating this entire show around interest rates in order to keep everyone focusing on that, instead of focusing on its BRUTAL intervention in the long term bond market.
This intervention is the significant part in holding the market from falling, since once the FED stops buying all these long term bonds, their rates will rise DRAMATICALLY.
This allows the FED to hike rates without TOTALLY COLLAPSING the long term bond market and the housing market with it immediately.
Although it started reducing its purchasing of long term bonds, the FED is doing it EXTREMELY SLOW, while running the "short term interst rate" show like it is the most important thing.
Obviously, the media and all of us are totally hypnotized by the FED interest rate show, just like a hypnotized person looking at the pendulum in hypnosis show.
And all of this is in order to show that the FED is fighting inflation.
SHOW TIME will arrive when the FED really pulls out its sticky fingers from the bond market.
Have a nice weekend!!!
Yes this is really weird, and I'm shocked that the financial media is not talking about it much, much more. It's very strange that they are not rapidly decreasing the balance sheet, almost as if they have some ulterior motive for not doing so, because there's no reason for them not to.
your's is an excellent analysis. So the fed is praying that housing falls by atleast 20%. The institutional and foreign investors are holding properties. The home-owner will incur losses of 100-200,000$ on their mortgage.
Fed cannot bring the rates down in the next 5 to 10 years. I think Fed is annihilated and has no tools or credibility.
Biden should have fired Powell 2 years ago.
@@KP99 you mean other than a worldwide economic collapse? I ain’t sure of much but I can tell you with virtual certainty that $9t debt will be passed on for generations. REAL QT? Sure…………
I thought they already stopped buying bonds months ago. Aren't they letting them mature and even selling some back to the market?
@@kevinlue4756 they were supposed to start in June, and I think they started a very little, but they are not doing anywhere near as much as they had indicated. I believe they're only doing about 10 billion per month, when they were supposed to be doing about 75 billion. Those numbers may not be exact, but you get my drift.
People have more jobs than ever! And they are getting paid more than ever!
Love his analysis always on point he breaks it down so clean. Sorry for not using punctuation.
ʟᴇᴛ'ꜱ ᴛᴀʟᴋ ɴᴏᴡ ✍️📝
too bad ...his point always changing the goal post ... last week was FED late to pivot (dovish) and now FEd is behind the curve should have been more hawkish? El-Erian does not have a clue .. if he was head of the fed ... the economy would turn on a dime? NO ... he would have crashed it last year and not caused the fast recovery in 2020.
@@titusp9488 what recovery?
On point? He has a different story every week
Common sense tells you that if people continue to purchase and prices are high they are not going to lower prices. You have to intervene to stop purchase so prices can go down.
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
Yep it’s called inventory build and it’s already happened
i like how El Arian included labor force participation in his statement. unemployment and jobs numbers mean absolutely nothing if you dont look at them alongside labor force participation
In what way is this helping you understand the report better? If participation had increased instead of declined, does that make this robust jobs number more inflationary, or less inflationary, etc? Just wondering what additional read you get from it.
@@KP99 he only mentioned it once at the very beginning, so he didn't even really talk about it. but at least he mentioned it.
the reason this is important is because labor force participation rate has been steadily declining for years. it peaked at about 67% in 2000. hit a low of 60% due to the pandemic. rebounded to 62.4% in march 2022 and has been declining since then
why is this important? because as long as labor force participation rate is low and falling, it doesnt matter if you have 0% unemployment rate. the real metric - how many americans are working vs not working, remains low and declining
government and media will intentionally leave out labor force participation rate and just quote unemployment rate in order to justify the lie that the economy is doing well
the truth is, economy is doing horribly. again, does it matter if unemployment is at 0% if labor force participation is falling?
@@KP-by4eu rising wages is another gov lie. Wages might be rising, but not as fast as inflation. That means real wages are still falling even as nominal wages are rising.
@@jp92382 ... Firstly, you and KP's conversation is so much better than this video. As far as the unemployment rate and the workforce participation rate (including U-6) is concerned, I think the Fed really is having a tough time figuring things out because so many people have quit or retired from their jobs/careers or sold their businesses while only in their late 40's or mid 50's over the last 10 years or so. Here where i live this has been going on for at least 10 years or longer. On the other end of the spectrum, I've seen many of the younger folks switching jobs for better pay or benefits about every two years - they also want and take lots of time off between jobs too. Wow, for those who really want to work, be it a job or a profession or career, these are the "Salad Days". Peace.
@@KP99 participation rate is 85% in Finland. 85% and they keep developing jobs. The USA rate is probably still under 65. 65%. 20% less. And most of Europe is well over 70%. And they have better healthcare according to statistics. 6 weeks of vacation and real sick
leave as well as way cheaper education which may include living subsidies and mass transportation. We here pay less in taxes, and only about 10% less, but we pay way more for all these others. In fact this shows us how Democratic socialism is supposed to work.
just here for how the arm chair quarterbacking from those that think they know better than the Fed here....
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
A dummy knew they should have tightened years ago
In second 39, you can hear the Bloomberg host FART!!!!! Hilarious!
He drank 2 much tang
they have brain fart all the time .. just this time it came out the correct end :)
So here are some employment categories for the new America: 1. Living off government. 2. Stirring sh_t up on Twitter. 3. Crook 4. Con Artist 4. Drug Seller 5. Parent Milker 6. Professional protester. 6. Day trader 7. Sports junky 8. Professional video gammer If we include these in the employment numbers we will have full employment
Interest rates this far below the rate of inflation mean that fixed income investors are offering up their wealth to be transferred to the leveraged owners of real assets (e.g. real estate, businesses etc). Eventually fixed income investors will grow tired of this arrangement. Why lend money when you can borrow it below the rate of inflation and buy real assets?
Sharp point, it's rarely explained this clearly.
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
Why not borrow money below the rate of inflation and buy real assets like real estate?
@@Sonofawildanimal4241 LOL, that's his exact point, he literally wrote exactly that
@@KP99 Yeah, it makes total sense! People are still borrowing money below the rate of inflation and buying real assets. Thanks to the Fed’s little tiny baby hikes. More is going to have to be done… I don’t know how you fix human behavior. It’s a simple point that’s 100% worth repeating.
The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of Doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence. Shame on fed!
There’s no stupid people. God made them different.
@@bac3phi maybe someday we'll be pleasantly surprised with the intended purpose.
you give the fed too little credit .. lets NOT forget we just got out of depression slow in 2020 .... 2021 was a recovery ... yes they are behind the curve on inflation but lets not ignore the fact with 2.5% rate they have cute commodity prices by more than 20% (since march). so ... do more home work ... talk less think more :P Economy need to stabilize and a little inflation is a bad is not permanent.
Good job reports is bearish. Gives the fed more reason to rate hikes and not pivot. The point of these rate hikes was to bring down inflation.
Honestly f. Cckk those people who are getting jobs. Not like we shame them for taking social benefit or anything. I hate when people are pulling themselves up by their bootstraps and actually work. Not enough lazy people not working and being poor.
Well the issue you can’t bring down this inflation because increasing jobs is inflationary…. It’s obvious the USA is still growing because the millennial population
generation is now the main people being taxed
The jobs report is bad news for the Fed, but it is worth reminding ourselves that none of the increases in the Federal Funds rate, except possibly the small one in March, have had enough time to effect economic activity. Given the usual lags, nearly all of the impact of the increases in policy rates is still in the pipeline.
Even if that ends up being the case, it accentuates their biggest mistake, waiting this long to change stance. And still they have talked more than what they have done up to this point. Powell needs to stop playing psychologist at every interview and let policy speak for him.
Its a mild recession and going to be a soft landing
The bears were wrong.
There will be no "catastrophic collapse" of the us economy
@@BrandonClark-StocksPassports the monetary repercussions are only part of it. Creating a mob of lazy zombies clamoring for stimulus checks and zero percent interest rates is the largest issue. It's like a spolied kid that never learns the results of bad decision-making. In the end they end up in ruin, and most of the times taking their parents along with them.
@@sinforoso2000 Yes, Powell’s communications approach is not helpful. It sows confusion.
Only thing comical is this clowns obsession with JPow.
If the CPI begins to cool next week, the fed will absolutely love this jobs report.
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
Come on Powell - where is the emergency rate hike? QT? Selling MBS?….🦗
Higher prices are causing additional members of households to go out and find jobs. This larger pool of job seekers will have a dampening effect on wages and inflation in general. JMHO.
How many jobs 2nd 3rd or part time job
Exactly Correct.
God bless america
I had the volume up and the entire office hears the host rip a FART! at 39 second mark
Mohamed definitely has some terrible smelling farts 🥴
He’s too quick to criticize the Fed. We are in unprecedented times.
Good news is bad news. Bad news is good news. Thanks FED.
I am wondering the strong employment could due to the drop in the productivities (employers have to hire extra personnel to maintain the productivities)? I am hoping I am wrong!
They FED should be more aggressive raising interest rates.
Pretty sure John let one rip right after Mohammed said comical, which is pretty... Comical
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
Oh my God, the world is going to end. Let's pay banks more money. That will solve all of our problems!😵💫
Why fed have to wait for sep .why can't they go now .
If supply increases faster than jobs and wages, it could mean lower inflation regardless! Biden administration has been improving infrastructure for easing supply chain constraints(ex: longer hours at port) which may work in this regard.
How many jobs 2nd 3 rd or part time job
If the Fed is going to 5% then 2.5 is not neutral ?
Let's at least credit the Fed for one thing: enough incompetence to reignite the decades-old debate over discretionary vs. rule (Taylor/Friedman) policy that ALL grad econ/finance students had to become familiar with. 😄
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
Lagging layoffs data. Hundreds of thousands
lol
Naa juli is only a few weeks ago, data is pretty up to date
The FED playing Tetris at this point with the economy. 😂
Why do politicians, bankers and the joke media keep talking? Everyone knows they are lying!
cause the fed wanted to give institutions and fund managers time to unload bags on retail when its been having the biggest interest in the stock market for the past 3 years to take all that stimulus away and give bonuses to themselves.
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
August surprise 75 point raise
The only thing more comical is any gatekeepers of information calling others comical
The Philosophy of Right for the Fed is you have to have a minimal unemployment to curtail inflation; this part of no part is the price for the capital to reproduce/innovate itself; unemployment is the Rose in the cross of the present
How many millennials does it take to fill the shoes of a boomer? Job growth is not because of economic expansion. It is an economy in search of the most experienced and highly skilled workers that are missing. In other words the great job numbers now and over the past 10 years have little to do with the economy and everything to do with labor momentum. The boomers have been retiring and as they have, businesses have been forced to pass the baton through additional hiring for training and to fill the very big shoes of the leaving boomers.
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
Bad for FED's creditability? Does FED still have any creditability or even economy 101 common sense?
Bad news for FED credibility? Hmm... If there were a number for that one, it would be in the same situation as interest rates not long ago, to go any lower, it would need to get into the negatives. They have either completely missed the mark by undershooting monetary policy for the past year and a half, or they have different goals/plans than what they communicate. First they poured gasoline on the inflation fire by overstimulating the economy through MBS and treasury purchases (this while fiscal policy was on overdrive with stimulus/moratoriums). Now they're tickling 9%+ inflation with 2.25% FED funds rate, and calling it "neutral". It's almost as if they have different goals than the ones they articulate. Yet Powell has the audacity to go on live TV and state that first time home buyer's need a reset. That's like handing a band aid to someone with a gunshot wound. It's very galant of you to worry about breaking the economy Mr. FED chair, but sorry to be the bearer of bad news when I tell you: you broke the economy already when you left interest rates at 0% for a year and a half.
I'd say both.
My impression is they are trying to 'talk' inflation away. While taking the most minimal action against it possible.
The FED does not care about inflation, the more they flood the market with QE and low interest rates the stronger the FED becomes. It is all about power.
Full time employment drop again, labor participation rate drop.
This is bad for stocks, fed has the raise, people are still getting poorer so spending power is still not returning
To this clown, literally any news means inflation is going up. Sell stocks buy allianz insurance policies
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
He has been wrong. He will continue to be wronged. He doesn't know what he is talking about. A waste of time. More importantly, misleading the market.
Depends if he’s a macro or macro economist…if macro he would be wrong on the big things, if micro he’s wrong on all the small things
The hedge fund he "consults" is short the market.
Mohamed El-Erian for Fed Chief!
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
F no!
@@DKK You'd be better off than having me. I'd have the interest rates at 15% and the Dox at $15k, right where they should be.
lets see how all these extra jobs affect GDP 😂😂 500k extra jobs and negative GDP . Very productive
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
Baba booey baba booey!!
Bring on the depression
Real estate is going to take another beating.
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
Of course, the Fed is going to wait until the next meeting to move their ass.
Be vewy, vewy afwaid! The fortunes of the rich, sorry I mean the economy demand that we put millions of people out of work and repossess their homes!
Ha will Mohamed finally be right? Even a broken clock is right twice a day
look at Jonathan Ferro's gigachad brain-case. Astounding
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
I expected good numbers... its good for the economy and for stock prices ! 😉
The Fed Clown Car...how bad can it get
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
There is a definition problem here. The “neutral rate” refers to a level of FFR that would sustain maximum employment and CPI at 2% IF the economy were at equilibrium having those desired employment and inflation levels. So, Powell is telling us that the current FFR is the level he expects to have AFTER he has adjusted rates as needed to obtain the employment and inflation levels he seeks.
Did someone fart @ 0:35 ?
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I'M OPEN TO IDEAS....
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@@ethanmartin7904 Exactly, the trick is
to diversify your investment, don't panic
when everyone else is and invest
consistently.
100bp
How does near term data fit his comments? The econ is weakening fast and employment data seemed very odd, lets hope the books aren't cooked....
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
Market is strong with new jobs but negative GDP. Imagine losing jobs now GDP would plummet
This is obviously good times. The worker has the say now because there aren’t as many of them with the boomers retiring . We have less available workers. It’s happening around the world but less so here because we had kids . China did not.
Are you nuts, birth rates are declining rapidly in the west
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
El Erian creates panic and wants to just sound different...if it goes well than no one cares and if it goes down south then hes the genius that called it out
just like michael burry 😂😂
El eiran isn't a bull or bear. He calls it like it is
He called the covid crash at 3300, before it dropped to 2200, when very few others were doing so. He saved me a lot of money, and also made me some on the downside.
@@niceguy8305 he’s a perma bear plan and simple
Muhammad, you are the comic guy. All your predictions have be useless. Get another job!
🐍
I think that the Fed will start easing again before the mid term elections regardless of the inflation rate!
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
End stock buybacks, pay workers more. It’s easier than 1-2-3, just 1-2.
Shut up
El-Erian is dangerous for investors.
Well it's nice to see new jobs added for the sake of having all the same jobs available that before the pandemic but regardless of what state the economy's and we need to get that labor force participation rate up a lot of people have not returned there have been just able to wing it with maybe just one income earner in the household rather than two or even more of course some of it is due to being the house spouse or for childcare or homeschooling but even with all that said the labor force participation rate could stand to be increased from what I picked up some people are in fear of having to revisit all the dramas they had to listen to when they had to leave the workforce who would ever want to revisit all those workplace dramas if they can get by without it we need to make the workplace more attractive not just for the money
ᴴ ᴵ ᵀ ᴹ ᴱ ᴺ ᴼ ᵂ ⬆️ ✍🏽
If you don't learn from past history you will be doomed I think 1970 is replying all over again.
No
Its a mild recession and going to be a soft landing
The bears were wrong.
There will be no "catastrophic collapse" of the us economy
@@BrandonClark-StocksPassports Do you have a crystal ball. The future is not us to see only the rear view mirror.
The best thing that could happen to the US economy is for the jobs reports to continue to rocket like this one. It's exactly this economic strength lead by additional productivity that will naturally bring down inflation expectations. Mohamad El-Erian is just pissing in the wind because he's been wrong about stocks and now he's way behind the curve. What you are seeing here is the power of the free market and capitalism taking all that excess liquidity from the previous QEs and reallocating it into the proper places to maximize returns. This in turn will bring down pricing pressures for goods and services and at the same time advance a higher average standard of living in the US, which will drive both new investment and at the same time support the US Dollar.
So much of that excess money was pumped into housing which caused skyrocketing prices that many people cannot afford. Also caused rents to skyrocket which is leading to more homelessness. So, no, what you're saying is not what's happening.
@@KP99 Tell that to the unemployed people who just got those jobs. Now they can afford better rentals and some can now buy homes. The real estate market will correct when supply increases, when will happen when there are more people working in that industry to build more apartments and all the things that go into that construction. We have a labor shortage now. Without a greater work force, who's going to build out the additional housing supply to help bring down rents and home prices?
@@AnthonyGiallourakis Supply was perfectly fine in 2019, and the unemployment rate was also very low. The population size has not changed so much since then to cause a 50% increases in home prices. Those increases are completely due to the excess QE money that you mentioned being pumped into housing. And all the people who are being hired are not being hired at wages to keep up with 9% inflation, so their real wages are making them fall behind, not helping them get ahead. Nobody will tell you that right now they have an easier time affording housing than they did in 2019.
@@KP99 The COVID lockdowns and the supply constraints placed upon the building industry created a two year supply reduction. What did you expect to happen? Prices and demand got out of balance with supply. That's working itself through now and in a year or two, everything will come back into balance. Don't blame the FED and their money printing. That saved us all from a complete economic crash. Blame the bureaucrats who overreacted to the pandemic. Their overreaching into the economy was to blame for the higher rents and housing shortage we are seeing now. Now that we're getting back to work, and supply is starting to relax in raw materials, housing will settle down and prices for home and rents will moderate.
@@AnthonyGiallourakis What additional productivity? GDP's in the toilet.
Remember this famous quote "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output." - The great Milton Friedman, 1963.
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Created by increasing the money supply (aka money printing). And cured by removing a quantity of money.
😎😎😎😎😎😎😎
Bullish for stocks as this makes the case for a soft landing with the backdrop of crashing commodities prices. This is the ideal outcome thus far.
Its a mild recession and going to be a soft landing
The bears were wrong.
There will be no "catastrophic collapse" of the us economy
One can always count on this guy to be wrong.
He called the covid crash before anyone else was worried about it.
el-erian's face is comical. he has been wrong on every account and is gloating because his broken analysis happened to be correct on one occasionz
ʟᴇᴛ'ꜱ ᴛᴀʟᴋ ɴᴏᴡ ✍️📝
Spot on!