This video encompasses many reasons why I don't love commodity companies or companies relying on a particular commodity. You really have to understand that sector to make great money.
We're the same way. Commodities are subject to supply and demand from external forces so its always a roll of the dice as to where things are heading. Even worse are commodities that aren't traded on a visible exchange. Too much risk. Often requires market timing to generate alpha.
What a great presentation! I became aware of the company after watching a veritasium video. I have a small position short put 12.5 2 years out. Mostly because I find the risk reward interesting.
Just finding this video now; I just recently established a position in this at $18. Looks like at the time of this video, it was trading in the $20’s, so down a bit since then. Looks interesting to me- hopefully we’re getting back on track from here. 👍👍👍
We can't believe it either frankly. It all comes down to the lower TCO which is being accelerated by some very cheap cars - cheap on price, not quality. Incoming: ruclips.net/video/D0jJG0Sego4/видео.html
Hey, then you already know! Tesla best selling vehicle in 2023 of any vehicle. That's not a bad start for growth ;) Do check out what BYD is getting up to. Their cheap prices are really spurring adoption in emerging markets (not intuitive, because we always thought EVs were for rich people countries so they can pretend to care about the environment ;) Thank you for the encouraging words!
@terryklender4209 you need some Ford $F stock its at a great price for share accumulation, has a great dividend, and they make the #1 selling truck. Their EV Lightning is an awesome truck and will catch on and they will have a great total return. They will be EV leader. Mark this email for 5 years
Hey guys another knockout! Could you do a video on CFLT? Huge jump after earnings… I am concerned about their TAM though and I dont have the insight to make a judgement based on TAM, but its clear the company can execute.
We don't do updates for when stock prices increase because that's expected behavior. That said, we check in with companies once a year and its actually been a year now. The coming Confluent update will be an article for Premium subscribers instead of a video. But you can get read it anyway because everyone gets some free reads. ;) Joe P.
Great video ! What do you think of SMIC ? There is a risk of high costs in the future to try and beat tsmc , but seen their recent breakthroughs and the way the usa is pushing china in a corner when it comes to semiconductors i , i think this company will benefit from it ! Would love to see a video on that
That's an interesting thought. So a cursory search shows they're a "partially state-owned publicly listed Chinese pure-play semiconductor foundry company." Would need to look at things like where they trade (HK presumably?), the round lot issue for retail investors, the availability of investor materials, etc. A video like this usually takes a day to produce if everything goes well. This would need to be raised in our Discord server for the community to have a say ;) Very glad to hear you enjoyed the video and will keep SMIC in mind. Joe P.
Good point. Note that Japanese companies can be very tough to follow. At my prior job, we needed to hire Japanese-speaking analysts in emerging markets just to read basic financial data. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze Fair enough, but I think any buy/sell/hold presentation that ignores any quantitative analysis of the current stock price or it’s recent trading range is frustratingly insufficient.
@@warduke8192 We were already pushing it with a 17-minute video, but good question. ;) What would you consider a fair price to be and what would that be based on? We could probably do an entire video on that, but do you think the current price range it trades at is a fair tradeoff between risk and reward?
@@Nanalyze Thanks for your interaction on this topic. I don’t have the expertise needed in order to objectively derive a fair entry point for WOLF. However, based on the reviews of certain analysts that cover this company, it seems that last week’s prices were attractive for accumulation.
Great question. After moving stocks to an "avoid" as we did with Wolfspeed, we don't check in with them on a regular cadence. So, unfortunately we haven't looked at Wolfspeed since this piece, but we're still avoiding. If you want to read the article that accompanied this piece, here it is! www.nanalyze.com/2024/02/wolfspeed-stock-best-investment-ev-chips/
Why dont you have global foundries in your list genuinely curious if there are concerns, risk or just not appealing or was just not in your radar? They have 9 fabs with shared patent (cross-license) w tsmc. They have ai accelerators for cloud & edge ai inference, defense contracts and ev like infnion which are currently the trends. + partner w ARM. Great Managemnt just hired cfo john hollister formerly from silicon labs currently board of macrofab. Are located around the globe safe from fears of china reunification w taiwan.
Thank you for the comment! For this exercise, we're specifically looking for companies that produce chips for electric vehicles as majority revenue exposure, not a fraction. The impetus for this search is explained in this video: ruclips.net/video/_xMKr0dTIg8/видео.html
Going back to our exposure comment, an investment in ASML is an investment in an entirely different thesis which we covered here: www.nanalyze.com/2024/01/asml-stock-pick-and-shovel-semiconductor/
Gotcha, thank you for the clarification. ASMI is similar that they sell a broad set of tools to the semiconductor and would have marginal SiC exposure at best. Both pick-and-shovel plays on semis, though we prefer software providers like Synopsys over hardware providers.
You are too tight with your pencil. This is a hard material to work with. It will be just as difficult for competitors. New fab is meeting ramp. They are also adding 10x he wafer production. It hurt eps in the short term, and accelerated growth in the long term. China can't produce the quality. Your China estmates are bullshit.
Saying something is bullshit doesn't make for a compelling argument. You seem hell bent on cheerleading the company. Have at it. Back up the truck. We just presented concerns which you don't seem to share. That's fine.
Asia quality sucks. China"s quality cannot do an auto moffit. SiC is very hard to make of high quality. Tesla is talking about entry autos. Less performance for entry to lower cost.
Asia makes up over 60% of the world's population. In many of those countries you'll find great quality because those geographies are where most goods come from.
You must work for hedge funds. This is expensive to make a 8 inch wafer fab. Good luck China in tooling the factory. There has been modifications by the machine suppliers to make the NY fab work. Good luck competitors. You are pencil pushers. Your analysis is weak and wrong. The high short position will crash and burn after Wed. close. The US government will support the capital needs of this company through the Chip act. US government knows this company quite well supporting the research all these years to reduce the cost of SiC for uses by our military. This is a material you want to be made in the US. This is not solar panels. Apple and orange comparison. You obviously do not follow, go to conferences, or talk to the scientists in this area.
No, we don't "work for hedge funds." You say our analysis is weak and wrong but then you don't dispute anything we stated. Not off to a good start if you want to add value to the conversation. You ought to read our piece on Intel and the CHIPS Act next: ruclips.net/video/AT1Cc_6lLqo/видео.html
Be sure to subscribe here for more insightful videos on disruptive technologies: 👇
ruclips.net/user/nanalyze
This video encompasses many reasons why I don't love commodity companies or companies relying on a particular commodity. You really have to understand that sector to make great money.
We're the same way. Commodities are subject to supply and demand from external forces so its always a roll of the dice as to where things are heading. Even worse are commodities that aren't traded on a visible exchange. Too much risk. Often requires market timing to generate alpha.
What a great presentation! I became aware of the company after watching a veritasium video. I have a small position short put 12.5 2 years out. Mostly because I find the risk reward interesting.
Really glad you enjoyed the presentation!
Just finding this video now; I just recently established a position in this at $18. Looks like at the time of this video, it was trading in the $20’s, so down a bit since then. Looks interesting to me- hopefully we’re getting back on track from here. 👍👍👍
Let's hope so! We'll revisit names usually once per year.
I don’t believe EV’s are growing like mad.
We can't believe it either frankly. It all comes down to the lower TCO which is being accelerated by some very cheap cars - cheap on price, not quality. Incoming: ruclips.net/video/D0jJG0Sego4/видео.html
The only EV stock I own is Tesla but I’ll definitely give that a watch.
Great videos as always!
Hey, then you already know! Tesla best selling vehicle in 2023 of any vehicle. That's not a bad start for growth ;) Do check out what BYD is getting up to. Their cheap prices are really spurring adoption in emerging markets (not intuitive, because we always thought EVs were for rich people countries so they can pretend to care about the environment ;) Thank you for the encouraging words!
@terryklender4209 you need some Ford $F stock its at a great price for share accumulation, has a great dividend, and they make the #1 selling truck. Their EV Lightning is an awesome truck and will catch on and they will have a great total return. They will be EV leader. Mark this email for 5 years
@@Nanalyzelove my Tesla stock!
Hey guys another knockout! Could you do a video on CFLT? Huge jump after earnings… I am concerned about their TAM though and I dont have the insight to make a judgement based on TAM, but its clear the company can execute.
We don't do updates for when stock prices increase because that's expected behavior. That said, we check in with companies once a year and its actually been a year now. The coming Confluent update will be an article for Premium subscribers instead of a video. But you can get read it anyway because everyone gets some free reads. ;) Joe P.
Great video !
What do you think of SMIC ? There is a risk of high costs in the future to try and beat tsmc , but seen their recent breakthroughs and the way the usa is pushing china in a corner when it comes to semiconductors i
, i think this company will benefit from it ! Would love to see a video on that
That's an interesting thought. So a cursory search shows they're a "partially state-owned publicly listed Chinese pure-play semiconductor foundry company." Would need to look at things like where they trade (HK presumably?), the round lot issue for retail investors, the availability of investor materials, etc. A video like this usually takes a day to produce if everything goes well. This would need to be raised in our Discord server for the community to have a say ;) Very glad to hear you enjoyed the video and will keep SMIC in mind. Joe P.
ROHM seems like a safer (and good) bet. Good financial shape, trades close to book value and have been around for way longer.
Good point. Note that Japanese companies can be very tough to follow. At my prior job, we needed to hire Japanese-speaking analysts in emerging markets just to read basic financial data. Joe P.
You've identified several valid challenges and uncertainties ahead for WOLF. What is a fair stock price in light of those concerns?
Everyone needs to decide what that is if they go long a stock. For us, we're just not interested right now given the risks stated in the video.
@@Nanalyze Fair enough, but I think any buy/sell/hold presentation that ignores any quantitative analysis of the current stock price or it’s recent trading range is frustratingly insufficient.
@@warduke8192 We were already pushing it with a 17-minute video, but good question. ;) What would you consider a fair price to be and what would that be based on? We could probably do an entire video on that, but do you think the current price range it trades at is a fair tradeoff between risk and reward?
@@Nanalyze Thanks for your interaction on this topic. I don’t have the expertise needed in order to objectively derive a fair entry point for WOLF. However, based on the reviews of certain analysts that cover this company, it seems that last week’s prices were attractive for accumulation.
@@warduke8192 You're most welcome! This one is a really tough call to be honest.
What are your thoughts after the recent earnings?
Great question. After moving stocks to an "avoid" as we did with Wolfspeed, we don't check in with them on a regular cadence. So, unfortunately we haven't looked at Wolfspeed since this piece, but we're still avoiding. If you want to read the article that accompanied this piece, here it is! www.nanalyze.com/2024/02/wolfspeed-stock-best-investment-ev-chips/
@@Nanalyze thank you for the insight
Why dont you have global foundries in your list genuinely curious if there are concerns, risk or just not appealing or was just not in your radar? They have 9 fabs with shared patent (cross-license) w tsmc. They have ai accelerators for cloud & edge ai inference, defense contracts and ev like infnion which are currently the trends. + partner w ARM. Great Managemnt just hired cfo john hollister formerly from silicon labs currently board of macrofab. Are located around the globe safe from fears of china reunification w taiwan.
Thank you for the comment! For this exercise, we're specifically looking for companies that produce chips for electric vehicles as majority revenue exposure, not a fraction. The impetus for this search is explained in this video: ruclips.net/video/_xMKr0dTIg8/видео.html
When a Nanalyze video is on my feed 😊❤
It's love like this that makes all the hard work worth it ;)
Playing SiC via ASMI which has a near monopoly on ALD tooling while this temporary EV downswing continues.
Going back to our exposure comment, an investment in ASML is an investment in an entirely different thesis which we covered here: www.nanalyze.com/2024/01/asml-stock-pick-and-shovel-semiconductor/
@@Nanalyze ASMI not ASML (though I own that too).
Gotcha, thank you for the clarification. ASMI is similar that they sell a broad set of tools to the semiconductor and would have marginal SiC exposure at best. Both pick-and-shovel plays on semis, though we prefer software providers like Synopsys over hardware providers.
Analysis paralysis is right. Damn you read me like a book
We all run into that regularly :)
Capital spend is dropping. Sales volume is picking up.
The last four quarters of revenues say otherwise
You are too tight with your pencil. This is a hard material to work with. It will be just as difficult for competitors. New fab is meeting ramp.
They are also adding 10x he wafer production. It hurt eps in the short term, and accelerated growth in the long term.
China can't produce the quality.
Your China estmates are bullshit.
Saying something is bullshit doesn't make for a compelling argument. You seem hell bent on cheerleading the company. Have at it. Back up the truck. We just presented concerns which you don't seem to share. That's fine.
Cash coming from NY.
Maybe best to save up the comments into one spiel so that people can follow your thought process better. :)
Asia quality sucks. China"s quality cannot do an auto moffit. SiC is very hard to make of high quality.
Tesla is talking about entry autos. Less performance for entry to lower cost.
Asia makes up over 60% of the world's population. In many of those countries you'll find great quality because those geographies are where most goods come from.
You must work for hedge funds. This is expensive to make a 8 inch wafer fab. Good luck China in tooling the factory. There has been modifications by the machine suppliers to make the NY fab work. Good luck competitors.
You are pencil pushers. Your analysis is weak and wrong. The high short position will crash and burn after Wed. close.
The US government will support the capital needs of this company through the Chip act. US government knows this company quite well supporting the research all these years to reduce the cost of SiC for uses by our military. This is a material you want to be made in the US.
This is not solar panels. Apple and orange comparison. You obviously do not follow, go to conferences, or talk to the scientists in this area.
No, we don't "work for hedge funds." You say our analysis is weak and wrong but then you don't dispute anything we stated. Not off to a good start if you want to add value to the conversation. You ought to read our piece on Intel and the CHIPS Act next: ruclips.net/video/AT1Cc_6lLqo/видео.html