Markets Weekly May 11, 2024
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- Опубликовано: 31 май 2024
- #federalreserve #marketsanalysis
Per-Capita GDP Recession
Global Rate Cut Cycle Continues
IMF finds global decoupling beneath the surface
00:00 - Intro
1:30 - Per-Capita GDP Recession
7:53 - Global Rate Cut Cycle Continues
11:33 - IMF finds global decoupling beneath the surface
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Хобби
Joseph I have to hand it to you. You are the ONLY PERSON ONLINE who is taking in consideration the massive migration that is happening on their approach to macro. All these other people I think are just scared to say anything. Hats off to you. Thank you for talking about what actually going on in the world lol. 👏 love your channel! Enjoying my Saturday lunch 🥪🎩
Yes. When politics influences macro, you cannot ignore it. And especially going forward politics and the gov't is increasingly influencing the economy.
Been waiting for this notification all day!! Thanks Joseph!!
Well said. The example of GDP per person between Canada and Japan is a great example. Canada’s immigration policy has been a disaster to the standard of living as the Government grossly underestimated the costs of housing, healthcare and education of the newcomers. Most of the jobs created post Covid have been in Government jobs working from home of course which further hurts the productivity numbers. The court system is in disarray with those charged being dismissed after three years as judges and courts cannot be found. Your charts of housing and GDP per person in Japan tells it all quite clearly. 🇯🇵
How the hell did I not find this channel earlier! I read your book and watched your podcast interviews. Instantly subscribed put the alerts on.
Thanks!
@@Fedguy12
Have you read the Great taken by David Webb?
What is this book about? It is about the taking of collateral (all of it), the end game of the current globally synchronous debt accumulation super cycle. This scheme is being executed by long-planned, intelligent design, the audacity and scope of which is difficult for the mind to encompass. Included are all financial assets and bank deposits, all stocks and bonds; and hence, all underlying property of all public corporations, including all inventories, plant and equipment; land, mineral deposits, inventions and intellectual property. Privately owned personal and real property financed with any amount of debt will likewise be taken, as will the assets of privately owned businesses which have been financed with debt. If even partially successful, this will be the greatest conquest and subjugation in world history
- Canada's immigration rate is wild
- Mass immigration likely lowers average quality of life due to net inflationary pressure
- De-dollarization is slightly more real than I thought
- US/China will remain frenemies for quite some time
Another insightful presentation as always, thanks for taking the time!
Thumbs up for Jospeh. Thanks, sir
Tysm Mr Wang from Brazil, for one more very instructive video!!!
I would be interested to know how much of an impact foreign buying of property has on prices. My guess would be that it is very significant, especially in places like Sydney, Vancouver and London. From a UK perspective, I would suggest migration has far less of an impact on prices than keeping interest rates at zero for 15 years and turning property into an investment vehicle from the mid 90s with changes to the mortgage market. As always, an informative episode.
I tend to agree with Brent Johnson's view that the fed will be the last or near last to cut rates.
Thanks JW
See you in a few weeks
Perfect stuff thanks! Have to disagree on one sided opinion on Japan, people are not happy about the situation with shrinking economy, living standards and weak buying power.
Another weekly tour de force.....so much excellent info in there I watch it twice 🤓. U da man! Thank you very much 🙏
Thank you very much Joseph, I’m learning a lot from you
I look forward to your weekly updates. They are invaluable to me. Keep up the good work. Book is great as well and I have been recommending it to my friends
King Joseph!!! You are the best
Great summary, thanks 10:52
Very informative! Thank you!
Thank you Joseph!!!
VERY good point the gdp per capita, and too seldom mentioned anywhere. This is certainly more important for the individual than national gdp. In German there is a book titled: Lying with numbers (Lügen mit Zahlen). Or the famous quote: Lies damnded lies and statistics.
“Hello my friends~”
Very Informative ❤
Superb as usual.
Great
Thank you Joseph.
absolutely terrific as always!
Thank you Joseph. What are you opinions on Uranium and nuclear energy?
Thank you
Nice 👍
Great🎉
Everyone needs to lever themselves up and take out those home equity loans. Then this house of cards goes down. Why everyone thought the crash would happen before that I have no idea.
The thing I don't get about a strengthening dollar due to higher interest rates is that the reason the other countries are cutting is presumably because inflation has come down. If the US has higher inflation it seems counterintuitive that the dollar would appreciate vs a currency issued by a country with a lower rate of inflation. What am I missing?
Yes, but the market reaction suggests that it cares more about interest rate differential than inflation differentials.
More than a problem of immigration is a problem with over regulations with housing. I think many immigrants would be fine doing simple jobs - like cleaning, basic construction, nurses in retirement home. But those jobs don't pay a living (rent ). So than everyone has to hassle, and corporate world has become over saturated.
Pushing financial bubble really high, basically enslaving bottom of working population
Wen you reference a paper,...like the IMF mentioned today, how about linking tha paper so we can read it for ourselves.
www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/05/07/sp-geopolitics-impact-global-trade-and-dollar-gita-gopinath
they won't lose mobile phones if they trade them via Vietnam, to use your example
Other than satellites, I am not certain we would lose our cellphone capabilities. How would that be a potential threat to America?
We wouldn't care if we didnt get a new cell phone, it actually would be better for us overall.
Otherwise great point Joseph. I would love to have Japanese "lost decades" in Europe. Taiwan and Japan are so safe, and there was always available place to rent. To me standard is higher in Japan & Taiwan. But working culture is brutal.
Even as a young guy without kids was tough. Working 14 hours daily. Very tough. But money went way further than Europe. Is not even close. And living in society without crazy leftists felt really fresh.
Massive immigration is a reason I consider to move ( back) to Taiwan. It doesn't effect me much here, but for sure will my kids. They don't sent "their best".
Ultra bullish update.
Economy is strong! Just incredibly sensitive and vulnerable to exogenous shocks. 🫠
Strong but fragile 😅