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It's now 2022 and Russia is on Ukraine. Your talk is very relevant even after 7 years. You foresight is spot on..... Now let's see where the bluff of USA/NATO leads us to
Even if Russia takes most of Ukraine, it still loses. It will take an empty territory which is totally destroyed with zero economic value. On top of that Russia doesn't have the resources to rebuild. 99% of Ukrainians are moving to western Ukraine and the EU.
Well he predicted that Russia is not going to invadde Ukraine...and also the europeans would remain divided. well russia did invade ukraine, and the europeans/americas showed a lot of solidarity. So I'd say the foresight isn't exactly spot on.
53:20 Europe will take itself down a notch by itself. Italian, German, Austrian demographics are terrifying. I have cousins in eastern Austria, I don't think they realize what is coming. The Americans had a millennial generation, most of Europe did not. I am not saying they are Communist China, but they are closely behind, Communist China and demographics. The economy will shrink. Where will people come from to take care of the old people? Where will the tax money come from?. You could only do so much with immigrants. Look at the replacement rates for each country. Anything below two is not good. Just a few more sidenote, where will the money come from for research and development and expansion. The economy itself will contract. Build a model of that, and let it filter.
George Friedman's books and lectures certainly age well! It's mid-2019 and this lecture is even more current (after the refugee crisis and the Brexit vote).
I agree with him about Putin. Does anyone not understand that that the Ukraine is not called “Little Russia” for nothing? The very idea of Russia began in Kiev,.
@@madmanwithmasck Yeah, sure, EU helped all the countries during pandemic, especially Germany, making all the countries to buy their Pfizer Vaccines, right? Do you know how many vaccines did Romania bought when Pfizer vax was available? More then 80milion, for a country with raughly 15 million. That's the kind of EU help.
This is the internet at its best, as a tool for educating and informing...exposing us all to great minds like that of George Friedman.... Truly interesting. Thanks.
Mr. Friedman SEEMS like unable to distinguish between "to unite" and "to conquer" (see e.g. 17:50), but he is not an idiot and hence it could have some un/conscious (or just unsaid) reason/purpose... Does he want to throw out a suggestion that Europe should be conquested? Does he mean that conquest of Europe (by various means), which culminated in the bombimg of Yugoslavia by USA? ...and continues by invasion of non-assimilable immigrants expelled from their home countries by USA? (and is it just coincidence that those immigrants are mostly men in the age fitting for military service?... etc....) BTW, NATO completely failed to defend European NATO member states against this invasion!
No it means if you start ethnic cleansing for two years and Europe does nothing the US not wanting to wait until that country gains enough strength to cause another WW like the appeasement of Germany
"... NATO completely failed to defend European NATO member states against this invasion!..." This is an excellent point. How the top brass stood by and watched Merkel's insanity demonstrates the lack of a well-defined core principle within the NATO alliance. This will (almost certainly) result in the various nations' militaries intervening and taking over fully, until the invaders are booted out. It's not going to be pretty. The leftist UN will try to 'encourage peace'; and this could bring the UN 'Peacekeeping' forces into conflict with the armies. Such a civil war has never occurred before, where several allied armies are each forced to take over their own governments, while trying to round up the invading class and expel millions. Who will actually start? Who will be the most dispassionate? There's no way to do this "nicely"; and it's going to make interesting reading for future history scholars. What's very clear, is the people like Merkel; and those in official positions who so enthusiastically embraced this self-destroying idea, should be prosecuted. What surprised me is the complete lack of IMMEDIATE push-back when Merkel's invitation to the whole Third World went out. Trying to understand this, I noticed that this same 'silence' followed the islamic rape-fest in Cologne and in other European centres; and I realised with horror and anger, the medias' role in this deliberate failure to report public outrage. The media, of course, can claim, with some justification, that the government clamp-down on honest reporting prevented them from telling the world what was going on, but as usual with the media, this is nonsense. The government and police, across Europe HAD certainly issued gag orders , but since when have the media been bound by this? It was at this point that I understood how the complicit media are in fact (just as all leftist governments are) part of this world-wide movement to destroy Western Society. This sounds like a 'Soros-style conspiracy'.... and it is. Time will prove this conjecture right. ...and the counter-movement to overcome this conspiracy, not going to be pretty.
>> 0:30:00 I really "LOVE" how he talks about Russia invading Georgia as if Georgian state did not try to oppress their Ossetian minority group. Yet when it comes to U.S. going to Yugoslavia to prevent ethnic cleansing by Miloshevich, that is "Peacekeeping".
There are ... many things wrong here. First, Europe was not an empire, it was a collection of empires. And it had in fact long periods of peace - Germany for example, nowadays considered the most militaristic and ambitious state, fought no wars from 1871 to 1914. Fourty years of peace in europe. So it is completely wrong to say that all europeans lived in fear of each other. Quite the opposite was the case. Everybody was convinced that war would not come, and secondly, that they would win. And the July Crisis was not really that remarkable. Similar crisis had come before and were solved diplomatically, without any bloodshed. What was different this time was that this balance was threatened on two fronts. First, Germany had risen to become the most powerful empire, at least industrially, and was seeking to do what all the other empires had done before: Act on a global scale. Secondly, Austria was facing a slow but steady decline into meaninglessness. There was a lot of conflict in the air, because there was peace for so long. France felt humiliated and faced a similar decline, Great Britain was losing relative power in the face of a rising Germany and US, Russia was just Russia (some things never change). So, naturally, everybody tried to either better their standing, or not lose their position. That is really important, because Germany, being the youngest of the empires, and the strongest, had no natural allies besides Austria - who only were natural allies because they were also German, but they were weak. Much like the Ottoman Empire, the Sick Man of Europe, the KuK Monarchy was at that point a paper tiger. So Germany found itself surrounded by more or less hostile nations, with only one ally. And that ally was intent on regaining past glory. The Austrians basically gambled: Either they win the next war, which means renewing their empire, or they lose it and go down in flames, but they would also go down if they do nothing. And Germany was stupid enough to stand by their ally. The rest is history. Second, IF the diplomats of 1914 had nuclear weapons at their disposal, there would have been no war. It wasn't better diplomatic skills or sober tempers that kept the Russians and Americans from fighting, it was the utter dread of complete nuclear annihilation. Third, Europeans have been extraordinarily violent. Woohoo, here we go again... I guess he just ignores the American conquests and the native genocide to prove his point. He also ignores literally EVERYTHING ELSE. The only reason that Europeans seem violent to him is because he does not know any other history. You just have to look to China, the middle east, India, or really any other place that has produced civilization, to see that all of them also produce war. Need I remind you all of the Azteks? Who where so violent and hated that neighbouring countries banded together with the european conquistadors and wiped them from the face of the earth? And America is only pacifistic in the way that Europeans were pacifistic up until WW1: They fought all their close wars already, beating everybody surrounding them into submission (plus their civil war), and once they asserted complete dominance over their neighbours, they started to colonize the world and fight their wars on foreign soil.
The emerging crisis in Europe is unraveling exactly as it was planned 50 years ago by the same people who sent this Bozo to try and brainwash us into another crock of shit!
One of the reasons WW1 dragged on as it did, instead of one side running out of money and having to give up, like in most wars before (which raised volunteers expectations for a quick end - obviuosly a victory for them), was central banking. Germany vould not inflate its way into,m military victory (and future economic defeat), like the British and Amricans could, so they had to hyper-inflate to pay off the loans. Also, civilization means, that a nation organizes its military horizontally and vertically, instead of all warriors charging into battle after the chief,
Early Europe may not had being an Empire,,, BUT, the inter marriages among the "autocracy" seems to make them, acting like one ??? All in the families, the ruling classes of Early Europe, then they started to fight each other, for power and greed ???
@@ludwigvanel9192 No, WW1 ended because of the Lord sending the Spanish flu to infect the combatants and populations supporting them, because the chastisement for sins of the flesh was sufficient. However, the BVM came to Fatima in 1917 announcing the imminent cessation of the war, but warning us that unless we bettered ourselves, a worse war would erupt in the pontificate of Pius IX, who had not yet been elected. Man did not better himself and became a licentious monster, WWII broke out and world wide carnage of the illicit issue of fornicating men became cannon fodder. Today, since satan unleashed the unholy Trinity of sex, drugs and rock ‘n roll, mankind, overwhelmed by carnal addictions, have reached the point of internet porn saturation driving men into masturbating nitwits, and a pandemic of prostate cancer rendering the west's ability to procreate null and void, while Islam increases to exponential levels of superior numbers to fulfill Isaiah 10:1-7. All because we have forgotten God and how to pray and fast. Armageddon is on the horizon and its 11:59:57 PM. Pray the Rosary if you know what's good for you. And, trust me, you don't.
Priceless presentation. By the way, the town he mentions at 8:42 where his father met the Jews / weapons smugglers is Bratislava (capital of Slovenia, I think). Congratulations, Google!
Agreed, so nuanced and I like the objectivity over the Ukraine crisis. It isn't often a man uses a personal story, disavows it as personal, and ties it into understanding the whole.
Thank you Mr. Friedman for adding clarity to what is like to be part of the human condition. People, we are all one family, let's take care of each other and let's stop repeating the mistakes of the past.
You weren't listening to Friedman. He WAS being clear about the human condition, at least for Europeans, and that human condition is resort to war to settle differences that aren't settled by other means. His lecture discusses the prospect of war between Russia and EU-United States, and that is happening in pretty much the way he described.
Couple of questions? How does the current changing demographics in Europe; influx of African and Middle East immigrants, effect it in the long term in reference to Mr Friedman's predictions? If he believes that a nation is a generalized collective set of values and cultural norms and vote along those said values, how can he effectively predict what a nation will do if their demographics change? This is especially true a couple generations down the line; many of these immigrants have many more children as compared to ethnic Europeans.
He is probably a race "realist" and believes that your voting patterns come down to genetics, no joke. For example, they believe things like You can't let Hispanics have citizenship because they are brown skin which means they are lazy and dumb, and always vote Left for more welfare. Yes they really believe that, never realizing that Hispanics vote democrat because Conservatives are racists who call them dumb and lazy for being a little darker skinned.
@@tijuanaforeplay8232 why is the majority of welfare used by people with a darker shade of skin? Explain it without resorting to institutional racism. Bc you know indians and Asians do quite well. Why don't Mexicans and blacks?
Excellent question. Who knows what he'll say, all that matters is that we act, we must breed beyond replacement rates, we must incentivize our women to breed more, incentivize our men to be their husbands and rear children, that is our only way out of this shit show. Focus on the old gods, for they knew the way, your choice of course, as it cannot be forced. But nature demands. We must obey, OR WE PERISH. They show natures path, and in order to survive we must adapt. David I hope this reaches you and touches your soul, however you wish to act, is only up to you.
In America, immigrants have traditionally contributed far beyond their due. If Americans continue to destroy those attributes that make this happen and if the Europeans don't evolve to make this possible, the point I think you are alluding to, might come to fruition. This is why the current Democratic party in America is proving to be mentally bankrupt. (Republicans have their own bankruptcy problems.)
All said, he concluded there wouldn't be an actual war in Ukraine. And I'd be of the opinion that nobody was more shocked at the speed that NATO and the EU found its calling than George Friedman. The EU was also there with a big stick for Germany to beat them into line!
"I see no example of any empire that so rapidly destroyed itself, not because there were external forces but because internally it was so unstable and so disorderly." ~ George Friedman As an American who has lived in Europe for over a decade, I see that quote as more closely describing America than Europe, even granting the fact that George Friedman's analysis of the structural problems of the European Union is as impeccable, as his expectation of Russian behavior is flawed. All in all, a brilliant lecture...jt
America has always been loud and brash BUT always open with its faults whereas others try to hide it also never forget USA is always in the spotlight so its EVERY move is observed, analyzed and critiqued. I mean look at Europe always Subsidizing its industry or bailing it out bit now that the US is doing it they are having strokes. Hipocracy at its peak I would say. No matter what you will always notice people saying that they love their country.
Wars are not fought with people you don't know? How about all the wars of conquest of nations around the world? Here we are 4 years later and Europe didn't fall apart...yet. Europe has other problems like confronting efficient Chinese production and unfair trade practices. They are also contending with an unprecedented amount of underproductive people who are on the dole.
they are unproductive because they dont see a future worth fighting for. its really that simple. To energize a population you must give them something to be hopeful about and an enemy to fight and win against.
Europe is a continent and not a people. And what ever the language suggest. There are no "Europeans". We have culturall differences like the US, Cuba, China, India. Therefore the consideration of Europe as a Union is a big mistake. Its fantasy!
yes america are pacifist, hmm a country based on genocide and slavery is pacifist. lets not talk about their wars in corea, vietnam, cambodia, iraq and afganistan. the whole of south america with some overtrowing of democratic elected goverments. i do not understand this guy he thinks europe is an unified country ...
As a European myself, i watched with lot´s of atention Dr Friedman´s points towards Europe´s fate while we do all recognize that all arguments made by him are well established, there´s a point that has escaped from his analysis, and that´s having to do with what new generations feel about European project, nationalism indeed exist in our continent, but the interesting think is that younger Europeans consider themselves primarily Europeans and secondly whatever their nationality might be, that´s because they travel freely ,establish relations, work , study in other countries plus a significant percentage is able to communicate easily in more than four languages,younger Europeans are quite educated sophisticated and see the future of their native land linked entirely into European project, we do know that in a world scene no European country alone can raise a loud enough voice inside a theater composed by actors as USA, China, India, Russia,Japan, Brazil, Indonesia,Mexico and so on....together we are a giant.....alone we are just a bunch of countries, at the end is not the only prediction in which Dr Friedman has failed....so far, as the one made for China some years ago, does not corresponds with today´s reality.Do we Europeans disagree one with other? of course we do,but we do not and especially the younger ones think of raising walls or going to war....... to give you an example : as you know during iiww almost all European families have suffered by some other European army, and while this is true for older generations to us younger such an incident represents a tragic moment in our common history, who in some strange way has contribute to the peace and thrive of Europe....yes we do not always agree with EU decisions, and that´s because we want Europe to mature and to act as a single entity......we are quite overconnected over here.....in every aspect: family,friends,work,studies,travel.....and so on, European project can´t be stopped because is moved by Europeans themselves.....Dr Friedman could not be more inaccurate....
Hi, I really enjoyed reading your post. Its refreshing whenever someone tries to form genuine arguments based on reason. I would like to start by testing some of your reasoned assertions here; simply reasoning that the EU is largely 'unified' and 'all together' is nice (this is the picture you are painting), but this approach discounts the real major problems the block faces and has failed to resolve for over decades now, and, misrepresents massively important divisions as a result within and across Europe ... deep structural economic and political problems that cause 'disunity' and now even part 'disintegration' via the second largest EU net contributor leaving under the banner of Brexit. Sure, we can discuss these issues 'together' ... we can say that "every territory has its problems" ... but this would be dismissive and doesn't alter matters. Maybe I should be more specific and less general. You 'say' or 'reason': "... we want Europe to mature and to act as a single entity ..." Really? Who's "We"??? (Who wants Europe to be a "single entity"? does this include Germany?) How many decades does it take to 'mature'? and why does EU economic growth consistently lag and remain so elusive?????? A "single entity"??? Really? Does this mean you are wishing for 'full alignment'? because Germany won't stand for full alignment on economic grounds - why would it do that? And in much the same way, as the EU increasingly centralized power the UK European skeptics increasingly became fearful of being less in control of policy decision-making versus centrally driven EU reprisals due to 'non-compliance' - this helped drive Britain away! As a result, the EU lost one of its largest most lucrative net contributors and you want to maintain a discourse about 'unity'? You say: "European project can't be stopped because is moved by Europeans themselves ...". With respect, you are conveniently lumping all Europeans together by reason alone. Which European project are you citing specifically? Broad political integration? Economic integration? A single immigration policy for all? - i.e., regardless of differences in democratic feeling (think Poland) or geographic vulnerability. Don't get me wrong, its good that you want to remain being a European. But the way the EU is being run is frankly irresponsible on behalf of nearly half a billion people. Its not "maturing" ... its being RUN!!!! Think about that and how the EU is being maintained (I contend that the EU is being run to benefit some more than others). More specifically, Germany is the biggest beneficiary of "European integration" ... right?, which is not really full integration or "Europeans together" at all (you are wrong). The EU supplies the political and economic certainty on which German prosperity has been built and maintained against consistent low growth. No country has more to lose from a break-up than Germany. Thus it is not simply that "together we are giant ..." but Germany continues to do very nicely from the single currency indeed. Just look at the unemployment figures in Germany (4%?) and compare this with most of Southern Europe (25% youth unemployment?). What the Dang? There has been a spectacular rise in support for far-right parties in Europe over the last two decades, but what has driven this electoral success? Drawing on new research, Vasiliki Georgiadou, Lamprini Rori and Costas Roumanias demonstrate that different types of far-right party have benefitted from different factors: economic insecurity has helped increase support for ‘extremist right’ parties, while cultural factors have been associated with the growth of the ‘populist radical right’. This is just one existential threat that could lead the break-up of the EU. And this is just one of many links you can find on this subject (see below). The problem is, the EU has other massive problems too, each of which partly stem from how the EU is being run. It seems that political 'disunity' is a growing phenomena withing the EU (this is not "Europeans all together"). newrepublic.com/article/153964/will-radical-right-break-eu It was the Americans that created the EU and funded the rebuilding of Europe towards this project after WWII (the EU didn't just happen because "Europeans wanted it"). Friedman observes this. In terms of Friedman's central thesis though, he also makes various valid points 'for discussion' (The Next 100 Years is not a 'fixed prediction', it provides a framework for discussion about the possible future and he's clear about the limitation and role his methodology plays). That's my understanding. He asks: if the EU fails to provide 'prosperity' what comes next? This is one of his big questions, because the EU is 'failing' on the back of this particular promise upon which it is fundamentally founded!!!! And people become more resistant to immigration and power being centralized once prosperity eludes them - our instinct is to regain something 'for ourselves' (think Brexit): I would argue that Brexit is an example of this happening as the EU starts to 'disintegrate'. And it is not going to stop there. Just as another example, what do you think will happen with Poland? Poland is now set to exploit the Polish Bloc's increased sphere of influence to rebuild its economy. The United States has begun to look at the Polish Bloc's growing strength as a potential future threat. To prevent Polish hegemony in Europe, the United States will ally with its former enemies Japan and Turkey, as well as the UK, to prevent Poland from dominating Eurasia, and will prevent Poland from making use of space for military purposes. Poland is already an regional power emerging that is land-locked hence the resistance to mass immigration we have seen. As it becomes even more powerful, it will naturally want to assert itself separately (It will only 'buy' EU 'unity' for a time and we already see cracks emerging). Just a few thoughts, of which there is far much more I could inject to support a counter-argument to your own. But 'disunity' and 'disintegration' are present for us to see already. We can disagree, that's fine. Regards
At what point does support for European centralisation and unity simply become a new nationalism? And when it does will it be any less dangerous than the nationalisms it replaced?
@@rodneyhenchliffe754 thank you. As a North American curious about International Polices, your perspective is how I understand the current situation. Very well done! PS, we, in the US are beginning to see similar fractions within the primary 48 states. It raises concerns for me.
@@rodneyhenchliffe754 The "problem" with EU is that Friedman along with many others seem to think the goal of EU is to become "United States of Europe" while most Europeans simply see the EU for what it is, a structure of cooperation. What is breaking EU apart is rather the fact that the elite is striving for the "USE" while common people look at USA as something deterrent, showing how we don't want our future to look like.
The emerging crisis in Europe is unraveling exactly as it was planned 50 years ago by the same people who sent this Bozo to try and brainwash us into another crock of shit!
@Robert Bonneau The Nazis and Communists were put into power by the American bankers and corporations like Henry Ford.and Rokerfeller Standard Oil The allies were used as pawns for the globalists Britain didn't loose Palestine it was all planned by Theodor Herzl and the Transfer Agreement.Operation Market garden in September 1944 was a deliberate failure with Prince Berhard ss working with the British planners of the operation its why Monty said it was a success because they had the Bilderburg group meeting there ten years later in 1954 these group of globalists and Club of Rome created the EU the industrialists enslaving the European nations with their totalitarian anti democratic regime with the bread and circuses to pacify the sheep remainers making them believe in the EU as if they were Europe. The bankers took over America after the act of 1871 making up laws and new rules to make it difficult to acccess justice and the truth especially when they had the Federal reserve Act.And Thodor Herzl and Zionists who wanted to take over Russia because the Tsar didnt want the League of Nations and as Churchill a great supporter of the Zionsts said Jews were divided into Communists and Zionists Its bascially about the few who wanted to enslave the many through their distorted Satanic banking and law making hijack of the nations snake oil salesmen and their Frankfurt school Mkultra indoctrination of the school education system and the Tavistock institution school of popaganda .and the socialist marxist long march through the institutions and mass consumerism through cultural marxism.
@@EIKLURAM - What a load of crap. Sounds like you got your history from RT news (Russia). Russia is run by oligarchs afraid that "those clever Europeans" would usurp their control over the Russian people with European freedom and prosperity if given a chance.
@@rumchjoe No sorry nice try but you can't pretend there was no English Civil war and dismiss history as being part pf a Russian TV programme I was actually a well researched Bsc undergraduate in Psychology and Social science and .Whats your educational background?
Too many vulgar comments. People need to make their comments with a little less emotion and a lot more intelligence. I think most people would agree it would be embarrassing to them to read after they grow up. I find George very thoughtful and I like the way he precedes his views with the facts as he understands them. I believe in listening to as many viewpoints as possible and drawing my own conclusions, knowing that the future becomes more recognizable the closer it comes.
There are many things right here. Europe needs to start paying for It's own defense and I whole heartedly agree that Europeans calling the US "Cowboys" is laughable considering they themeselves wiped out 100 Million of their own population in the last century alone. There is a reason why there are no competitive technology companies in Europe. I love the place, I love a lot of European people -- Being a Canadian (A very new country) it is so nice to see old culture, however, It is so evident that Europeans have so many conflicting Interests that It seems Impossible to form a coherent government body. I see the value in maintaining Nationalism but I also see value in uniting, but it's so fraught with difficulty that I do not think It's going to happen. All the best and all the luck (You guys are going to need it!). The Canadian :)
It might pain you to know that America actually financed WW2 and provided the means of industrial output to get the bombs dropping. Another thing, you gallant Americans are the ones poking and prodding the planet into hostilities that could otherwise be adverted. You start wars in the Middle East and for some reason, we get the refugees even though America starts the war???? You owe us more than money given you have effectively instigated a passive genocide from the influx of refugees you demanded we take along with the yes men America installed in Europe after the war. Typical Yank, clueless to the world outside of itself.
@@dunner079 possible. this is a serious test however, of your commitment to survival and the ability to adapt. I agree with your assessment though, congress are responsible for a whole heap of shit, that they eventially didnt pay for.
There's not much I can disagree with here. I could only add to it, for example the other day an EU citizen/ debater told me that "the Americans run NATO" and argued that 'Europe' doesn't want the U.S. dictating their level of military spending. Fine, but 1.2% of combined EU GDP doesn't 'cut it', they have to start spending and cannot continue rely on the US/UK military alliance and spending to support them forever. Also, it shouldn't go unmissed that the current secretary general of NATO is the former Norwegian prime minister Jens Stoltenberg, who took office on 1 October 2014. Stoltenberg's mission as secretary general was extended for another four-year term, meaning that he will lead NATO until September 30, 2022. Brexit itself remains testimony to the "return to nations" and the EU 'disintegration' process in action we now see has begun (it doesn't end with Brexit - UK Euroskeptics and the British electorate ultimately couldn't square greater EU centralization with dwindling prosperity under the banner of this 'grand project' - the natural instict is to take something back 'for your country'). Germany continues to prosper while EU growth continues to lag, and there isn't the prospect that Germany would ever advocate true economic integration - why the heck would they do that? I won't continue ... but I see all of the 'disunity' and deep structural cracks that will ultimately bring devastating EU 'disintegration' on the back of how the EU is being RUN more for some than others. And we all know about the 'regional geo-political tensions', the history of Europe and how it likes to start wars on itself when things don't look 'Rosy'. I'm scared for them.
curioso And George Friedman is their prophet - to psychologically prepare the public about what is coming in the near future - ultimately controlling the world from Jerusalem.
He misunderstand the Ukraine geopolitical dilemma. Ukraine has warmwater ports that Russia desperately needs and has been using under Ukraine for a long time peacefully. When the status of Ukraine came under question their hand was forced and they were obligated to invade. Europeans tempted Ukraine, but when push came to shove they had no ability or even thoughts about defending Ukraine
I am a German immigrant to the USA since 1963. Managing a German automation supplier / builder in the USA gave me insight in German and USA problem solving. USA and Germany have provided a good standard of living for most of their citizen but not all of them. The constant struggle to improve the lower income population is a serious challenge. Worrying what this constant struggle does to other countries takes a back seat. I do not see any solution from Mr. Friedman's video.
So, all Friedman knows is that France and Germany failed to conquer Russia. Friedman does not know his European history when he neglects to mentioned that the Polish and Lithuanian Commonwealth for centuries controlled the Ukraine, and even occupied Moscow for a few years in 1609. The Russians even made a movie about that recently with the title '1612'. Even Smolensk remained under Polish rule for over 100 hundred years. It is important to know this history to put things into perspective.Central and Eastern Europe rely on NATO. They fear an increasingly desperate Germany forming yet another 1939 type short term alliance with a Russia wanting to re-emerge as a dominant power. Friedman also forgets to mention that in 1920 the Poles saved Europe, at least a weaken Germany post WW1, from a Bolshevik invasion. The Poles know the Russian threat only too well and resent how Churchill and Roosevelt failed to heed their warnings before the Yalta Agreement. There are really two Europes. One that enjoyed the post war economic boom, and another that suffered economic repression and political oppression under Soviet imposed communist systems. The Eastern half is only too aware of the Russian threat and have now become distrustful of Western Europe, particularly Germany. This divide could become more pronounced if Brexit occurs and Hungary have a referendum against taking refugees. Eastern and Central Europe are treated as second class and often vilified by Western Europeans who don't even bother to read the histories of these nations. The Germans in particular, but also the Brits have this very negative thing about the Poles. Very loud German individuals writing articles and Utube crap claiming that the Poles started WW11 as well as allegedly murdered two million ethnic Germans during 1945 to 1947, and who demand the regained Polish territories of Silesia and Pomerania, ain't helping matters any.Basically, America should leave the military affairs of Western Europe to France and England, and instead continue to bolster the military capability of the former East Block, who resent interference from Brussels. There is a new dawn in Europe and that is the other Central and Eastern Europe. I was at the World Trade fair in Shanghai during 2010 and saw first hand the massive effort these nations are undertaking to also forge major trade deals with that other giant East of the Russian Federation - namely China. Interesting, the high quality Polish WW11 TV series "Days of Honour" about the Polish resistance to both the German invaders and subsequent communist government, which is only shown in Scotland and Italy, is being screened on Chinese Television. Watch this space as another part of Europe takes the lead in preserving Europe and its legacy against a potential Russian invasion.
So, aside from confirming that Poles like their alternative history phantasies, how could you explain why Russia would attack Eastern Europe? Just what's the point of attacking? A hint: Russia is a capitalist country.
Oh, you just confirmed the Russian agenda towards Poland and other East/Central countries by so casually dismissing their histories as fantasies. It demonstrates a disregard for the past that so directs these countries against you and disrespect as a precursor to a potential invasion. I am of Polish extraction and do take interest in history, yours included given that I also have some distant Russian ancestry as well. My take on your very sad history, where the greater majority got the raw deal and only the privileged few benefitted from Russia's imperialist glory, is that Russian people by and large are prone to brainwashing by tyrants The few dissidents are dispatched in short order. Democracy is not in your DNA just is not part of your sense of human dignity, pride, and self-respect as you allowed centuries of despotic rulers cruelly abuse you. Marshall Pilsudski who sent you guys packing in 1920 was right about aq suffocating Russia, whether as repressive Czarists or Bolsheviks. I suppose the revenge of the Georgians was giving you Stalin, the Jews giving you Trotsky, and the Poles giving you the ruthless and psychotic Felix Dzierzynski, who created the murderous police state under Cheka later to be known as the NKVD. You say that Russia is a capitalist country. Well, newsflash, you can be both a capitalist country and an imperialistic and despotic one. Ask the German industrialists who scored big time as Hitler unleashed WW2.
Thank you. You confirmed the racist attitude of Poles towards Russians. I like your condescending manner of preaching, it sounds very funny and helps you a lot. But I digress. Russia is a capitalist country. It means that all expenses are calculated including the military ones. What is the point of occupying Eastern Europe? What resources have you got? Which product will compensate for occupation?
I am currently reading a biography of Pilsudski by Peter Hetherington. The future leader of a liberated Poland experienced his education in Russian schools where Polish history was belittled by Russian teachers, who like their then German allies were hell bent on destroying the Polish language and culture. They failed, obviously.Yes, the decline of the Polish and Lithuanian Commonwealth, which once held territory stretching from Livonia (now Estonia and Latvia) to the Black Sea was in part the responsibility of Polish, Lithuanian and Polonised Ruthenian nobles, as well as some poor decisions of Polish Kings. The consequence was Poland being occupied for 120 years by the Austrians, Germans and Russians. Despite my Polish surname I am not a Pole. My knowledge of Polish history comes from non Polish historians such as Norman Davies and Hetherington, as well as Polish American Zamoyski. You call me a racist. Well, Sunshine your earlier flippant dismissal of Polish history, and describing it as a fantasy indicated that the Russians still have no respect for the Poles or other East and Central European countries, and, I responded in the manner I did. It seems that your fact-impaired notion of Polish history as a mere fantasy is either belittling or racist. While my equally condemning of the Russian history is racist according to you. You can give it but can't take it. And, if Russia is a true democracy can you please explain to me why Russian journalists are murdered, or a protesting girl band is jailed, and why Putin still pulls the strings for nearly two decades with no end in sight. The man is ex KGB and now a billionaire for chrissakes! Now do you understand the vigilance by the former East Block when it comes to Putin's Russia? Show less
Typical: lots of cliches, emotional statements, lies, but no specific information. The question was: Why would Russia attack Poland? What's the use? It's cheaper to buy something than to make war, then occupy a country with hostile population and feed it. Occupation must be deserved.
What? His dad wanted to go to a nation that was both internally and externally stable because his livelihood had been threatened twice by things outside of his control. Now, Friedman is a geopolitical analyst. Is he supposed to say America isn’t all that important of a country? That America’s international clout hasn’t been injected everywhere? That any other nation post-Cold War offsets influence in any way? Get real, dude
Friedman's father faced geopolitical reality and chose the United States. Good choice. Friedman now analyzes geopolitical reality, and proves that his father made the right choice. The only problem with that is that the United States continues to be involved in Europe ---currently confronting Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons. The United States doesn't need Europe, and the smart basis for American foreign policy was identified by George Washing as America's first President "No entangling foreign alliances." The United States should abandon Europe, and the world, to solve it's own problems. The United States is not the policeman of the world, and shouldn't try to be.
"The problem with Europe is that they had never gone through a financial crisis" He's talking about the EU as an institution. Not the entire history of the European continent. He's talking about the actions and policies take be the EU and its subsets of groups.
The key is for Europeans to embrace what our Jewish citizens have added - have contributed - to our European identity. Once we have acknowledged that and then seek to work with our fellow Jewish European Citizens we will go forward ...this is what European Citizens need to realize at this time (2018)
I am Hungarian and I was born 1957. I have studied history and especially thouse times when the I. and II. world war broken out. It was really crazy . The English king Edward the VI and the Willhelm the II were cousins. Yes, I agree that was really tragic what happened in Europa and what is happening now because of Brexit. But I wonder when I am listening G. Friedman how he couldn't realized America is doing the same? After 9/11 they fought 7 war in the Arabian Penninsula, and what about Vietnam, what about Serbia, what about other wars what they fought? Are they really so much different? No, I don't think so.
europe was attacked. the common currency demands repayment of trade deficits. they didnt do this. they tried to loan their way out. so the strangled became the strangler. what a difference 70 years makes.
I lost my grandfather in war, my dad was 4 when he lost his daddy. This trauma never leaves, it stay in your cells even after several generations. My grandfather was brought into a camp, died somewere but my father and grandmother never found his body. His other brothers were also in camps budt they came back. These are heavy traumas. Now Germany is still a. country that I never connect with because of this. I know Germany is not Ok, some say that merkel is the daughter of Hitler, I know that they have always been steong in technology and that the nazi s moved to America after the war to work for NASA like Werner von Braun. It hurts that you speek like we are all evil, but the evil is on the top not with the normal people. Greed and power, that is what they want, we are just numbers, slaves. We have always been that, I know there is going to be a collaps, but this time it will be worldwide. We all have to get through because of all the money printing, the lies, the corruption.....but we all he e to get through it. My grandparents lost everything during war, my parents lost everything during crisis and probably we will lose it too, but better to be aware of whats coming then be unaware, then the shock will be so severe.
What a load of horsecrap. If trauma stays with us then almost everyone in the world has genetic PTSD, your ancestors were in camps, mine were getting starved and shelled. No one had a good time back then, not even the Germans as individuals. You are right about the collapse and whatnot though.
It is true I am a descendant from the Caribbean and I know that the enslavement of Africans over centuries and the serious mistreatment has left a real scar and legacy that we have not been close to dare to contend with, but dare we must. Thank goodness the PM of Barbados is attempting to ask us to address this trauma and giving us confidence to move forward and ahead. I fully understand where you are coming from.
@@BillyBob-qu1fs The difference is only the Germans turned against the good democracy that their voters elected, to support a nasty Austrian with a supreme desire to torture & kill even tiny babies, with his writings published when he came to power. The real shocker is he started with the people of the Bible, but he or his successors would have eventually killed even the Japanese. I think what this woman is sharing is how aftershocks are real. One of my best History professors appeared to find it quite hard to like many people, knowing that his grandmother was raised up from the mud, by a young Russian soldier, in a German concentration camp. He was teaching Aggies, & the point was clear to me---- raise up as you go---don't rape & destroy--- because stories will be told about your actions, for centuries.
Why did Germany succeed after WWII is the same reason Japan is succeeding economically. Soviet and US post war occupation and redevelopment. We blew them up and then rebuilt their country. If you want your country redeveloped host a war there. 🤷🏻♀️ Great talk!
Why is it strange to talk about Europe as a single entity? - 28 nation states surrendered their national sovereignties to a central body (the EU) and when he talks of Europe he is talking about the EU.
its not just islam, its the demographic change, large influx of Africans and Arabians storming into Europe replacing the native populations. That is the real issue, Islam, is just a political entity, we make it out to be this mythical thing that cannot be stopped, well it can look at the mongols, ooh so terrifying, just dudes on horseback, yet we beat them with new tech and a will to fight, something we have to give the proto Russians credit for, but we must first get rid of the traitors at home, the corporate and the elites with their monetary influence, Europe must be made self sufficient to where a small loyal local business can compete and win against the international corporate and their scumbag bought politicians. That takes innovation and a European community mindset, an alternative tribalism, and an end to the worship of celebrities, money, and material culture.
You should read the French novel "Submission." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submission_(novel) It relates a plausible scenario in which the Muslim minority winds up taking control of the French government and imposing Sharia law. The most poignant moment for me is when two French people are discussing the event. One says he's decided to immigrate to Israel. The other says, "I don't have any place to go."
In Greece the state paid jobs had ridiculous high salaries. Like a common bureaucrat got a house (yes, a house) after some 30 years in the job. Had a nice salary too. The train drivers had a so called extra month salary. They had 13, 14, 15, 16., 17. 18 and 19th month salary.
So, Friedman is of Jewish origin, his father was a Social-Democrate, "deeply committed Zionist" and participated in war against Russia, where Hungarian troops were famous for their atrocities in the Region of Voronezh and other regions exceeding even the German ones then when Hungary (as the former ally of Nazi Germany) was occupied by Soviet Army, his father wanted to leave Hungary because he was on some list. Mr. Friedman did not elaborate (or his father didn't tell him) that his father might have been a war criminal. That was why they did not leave for newly established Israel as Hungarians killed also many Russian Jews beside Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians. A version worth considering, isn't it? Not that I am nitpicking, just too many gaps in his story. Hungarian Jews were the luckiest in the Eastern Europe many of them remained alive because they were protected by Horthy and were sent to concentration camps after he was toppled by Szálasi not long before the Soviets freed Hungary.
@EnhancedNightmare: Well, if anyone starts his/her lecture titled with "Daddy this, Daddy that" is not quite to the point, besides he tried to extrapolate his/her family's fate to make it a "standard" European fate. Well, it was not at least because his family belonged to educated part of society very tiny in pre-war Hungary. Second, if Friedman did not use his "brilliant" analytical abilities to understand that his father was just a time-server, if he did not read anything about Hungarian troops in Russia in WWII, what are all his predictions worth? @muskongasbay Good for you. You have some sense of guilt towards Jews as your grandfather did not let some Jewish person into his home. Well, I am sorry to say but he probably had to do it judging by your "liberal" legislation, check it out, Jews, Blacks etc. were not allowed to certain places (including homes) in the USA even in 1960-ies. So you are very sensitive about it but it is not my problem. The problem is that you call "Putin regime paid trollski" a person who just gave his own possible explanation of Friedman's father actions. Just another proof that US Americans are racists who think that only them can have their opinions calling others "trolls". You don't realize how racist you sound, do you? BTW, how much are pro-Israel trolls paid now?
I'll bet that the only thing that kept him from staying in hungary to kill jewish people is that his father was jewish and wound up on that list. Nothing more. Sadly this george freidman is like nearly every typical liberal jew, no moral ground at all. And due to that lack of moral compass the thought of blood shed is only too comforting, doesnt matter who whether it is killing or getting killed. People who lack any moral compass dont know the meaning of survival only blood letting whether its their own or someone else.
Trab Rex, you are a poor wrench, victim of your own illusion, Fukushima radiation is responsible for many abnormal baby tumors and miscarriages in California, your Los Angeles is a breeding place for bubonian plague, and Californians are leaving the state in ever growing numbers as prices explode due to inflation, Yellowstone will blow soon, and many former silicon Valley employees are becoming broke and homeless, this is the dire truth of the black hate dark lord, which you so studiously ignored... I can easily bombshell your effin mind with more inconvenient truths, especially on your US satanic history... Yes you could say, you are the devils own country, and you trust in him, to lead a wonderful sensual live, full of comfort at the expense of the rest of the world, which you despise, until your venerated Saran molech Luzifer calls for repayment of your treaty with him, and you end up at the bottom of hell, where you will hear my terrible laughter, you s. O. B.... Mesukiel Aketeriel Mahakala Bala Bala HeHeHe... If you Don t reform or regret I will curse you before all humanity and all the angels and before all the seven hells until judgment day, I solemnly swear to God with everything, that is holy in me and for me... Don t you mess with the wrong guy.... Mesukiel Aketeriel Mahakala Bala Bala HeHeHe.......
He quite rightly pointed out the great change that happened with the voyages of discovery. He failed, though, to acknowledge that the world today is undergoing just as great a change. The rise of huge corporations that can and do ignore international boundaries, choosing where to pay taxes and where not to, and when some of those corporations have a vested interest in armaments etc., in waging pointless wars in parts of the world in which they have have nothing on the ground to lose, and when they can effectively buy politicians, news media and therefore elections, it is as much of a change in geopolitics as in the age of discovery.
The private central banks are above the mega corporations in the food chain. They print money out of thin air and lend it for principal and interest. Do you not smell corruption and tyranny just from that last statement alone? Please do your research, but please keep the power of the bankers in mind while doing that research!!
The triggered far left and far right hand in hand in this comment section is worth the popcorn. The full weight of history and geopolitics is squarely behind Friedman.
He completely lost me going into detail on Europe. Comparing Germany as an export nation in Europe to the United States hypothetically exporting 50 % of its product to Canada and Mexico is ridiculous considering the population sizes involved. Germany has been a manufacturing center in Europe for a long time, that by itself has got nothing to do with the Maastricht Treaty.
Many good points, but how about the USA stays out of here instead of putting its big nose in our affairs every time. Go home, stay home, and start to mind your own business.
This man is a genius. To answer the question of the power of germany: it's a country of engineers that at the one side takes pride in its bureaucracy and other side is driving by people that are fundamentally afraid and depressive.
They have a very functional efficient government (relatively speaking to most governments). They are very efficient administrators as well as engineers. More than any other country they have been able to handle the displaced workers of globalization by retraining for new jobs. But, being a mercantile power is their weakness. (Fine Living is the French's weakness lol).
I disagree with the speaker on wars; So many wars of conquests, had nothing to do with inter dependence; they had more to do with ambitions to take land and other resources from the weaker countries.
Me, The guy is raising European unity to stand up against their eastern giants neighbor Russia while denouncing Germans vision and economic relations with Russia as to their European neighbours and averting Thierry eyes from what they call transAtlantic relations
I believe he cannot help but chuckle at the daftness of his listeners. It always happens shortly before he tells a particularly sinister and devious lie.
Very interesting to listen to this analysis 5 0r 6 years foward. Europa has survived. The Greeks have rebuild their economy on a better basis. Same for Ireland, Spain and Portugal. Europa has renewed itself and prospered. Until the Covid 19 pandemic. I suggest George you take a prediction about Europa and work backwords to see what went wrong with your analysis. You were very brave trying to see into the future. My respect, as the Germans say. With your analytic mind , I would love to read the history of how Europa together solved the terrible problems we had then Thanking you.
isn't Britain gone? aren't right and left parties growing while the center is dieing? i wouldn't say the EU collapsed, but it's not as stable as it used to be
Two year further on, Europe is engulfed in WAR! Energy shortages are threatening Europe with economic collapse! The EU is falling apart ---Britain has left the EU.
Aren't many Americans largely of European decent? I'm only half way through this and trying to understand why he talks about Europeans as though they were an homogeneous group, when up until quite recently Europe was, and still is to a lesser extent, a collection of countries speaking different languages with differing food, traditions etc. France, Germany, Italy were each made up of smaller countries speaking differing tongues in the 1800's. Naturally they had wars just as the people's in the Bible over thousands of years fought wars with their neighbours, Syria, Egypt, Persia, The Hittites, Israel, Moab, they were all at it!. Just as some of the native Americans fought tribal wars. Truth is is that fighting wars is a human, generally male trait, and not exclusively European by any stretch of the imagination!
04:35, to say that your parents became a threat is a bit underrated... they were marked for extermination, they were lucky not to be murdered together with the other 600000 Hungarian Jews.
Breathtaking to look back at this speech from march 2022
Yes.
We got here because of flawed views as people like him is promoting, due to his bitternes towards the Europeans. He's a good speaker though!!
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Nothing breath taking. Just theft
Indeed! Gotta go see if he's spoken anywhere lately.
It is an eye opener to watch this in Jan 2023
I am glad he mentioned the 100 million because in 2019 many history teachers deny it. all rights reserved
It's now 2022 and Russia is on Ukraine. Your talk is very relevant even after 7 years.
You foresight is spot on.....
Now let's see where the bluff of USA/NATO leads us to
Even if Russia takes most of Ukraine, it still loses. It will take an empty territory which is totally destroyed with zero economic value. On top of that Russia doesn't have the resources to rebuild. 99% of Ukrainians are moving to western Ukraine and the EU.
Well he predicted that Russia is not going to invadde Ukraine...and also the europeans would remain divided.
well russia did invade ukraine, and the europeans/americas showed a lot of solidarity.
So I'd say the foresight isn't exactly spot on.
I like George Friedman, because he is honest, experienced, clear sighted and has vast perspective!
His predictions on which countries would emerge as world powers and the current war in Ukraine are dismal.
His arguments are sound though. Just that God's plans supercede our own as the saying goes.
53:20 Europe will take itself down a notch by itself. Italian, German, Austrian demographics are terrifying. I have cousins in eastern Austria, I don't think they realize what is coming. The Americans had a millennial generation, most of Europe did not. I am not saying they are Communist China, but they are closely behind, Communist China and demographics. The economy will shrink. Where will people come from to take care of the old people? Where will the tax money come from?. You could only do so much with immigrants. Look at the replacement rates for each country. Anything below two is not good. Just a few more sidenote, where will the money come from for research and development and expansion. The economy itself will contract.
Build a model of that, and let it filter.
George Friedman's books and lectures certainly age well! It's mid-2019 and this lecture is even more current (after the refugee crisis and the Brexit vote).
awuma
That's because he belongs to people who actually control the world events. He actually acts as advertiser of the agenda of new world order.
I agree with him about Putin. Does anyone not understand that that the Ukraine is not called “Little Russia” for nothing? The very idea of Russia began in Kiev,.
@@JRobbySh And here we are.
@@jurycould4275 What happend in 2008 will happen again with a bigger rebound. 2008 was only a demo
@@madmanwithmasck Yeah, sure, EU helped all the countries during pandemic, especially Germany, making all the countries to buy their Pfizer Vaccines, right? Do you know how many vaccines did Romania bought when Pfizer vax was available? More then 80milion, for a country with raughly 15 million. That's the kind of EU help.
I love that George always answers questions at the end of every talk.
“Europeans will never change. they will just pretend it never happened.” -What a strong, eye opening sentence when I look around in Europe in 2023.
He should admit he is talking about EAST-europeans.
excellent, extraordinary. thank you for this lecture.
Brilliant lecture
Absolutely fantastic lecture. Gathering the threads and putting them together into a coherent story. I guess I have to buy the book.
How much were you paid for this comment?
@@GlendaBlumenthal That was in 2015.How are things now in 2022 ?
@@GlendaBlumenthal "gay music for gay people" you say? looooooool
@@GlendaBlumenthal Pretty cynical comment. It does reflect on what happens often on the internet. But I actually never did buy the book.
/价😢
Very noble speech or talk. I do really appreciate
This is the internet at its best, as a tool for educating and informing...exposing us all to great minds like that of George Friedman.... Truly interesting. Thanks.
😂
one of the greats
Excellent lecture
Mr. Friedman SEEMS like unable to distinguish between "to unite" and "to conquer" (see e.g. 17:50), but he is not an idiot and hence it could have some un/conscious (or just unsaid) reason/purpose... Does he want to throw out a suggestion that Europe should be conquested? Does he mean that conquest of Europe (by various means), which culminated in the bombimg of Yugoslavia by USA? ...and continues by invasion of non-assimilable immigrants expelled from their home countries by USA? (and is it just coincidence that those immigrants are mostly men in the age fitting for military service?... etc....)
BTW, NATO completely failed to defend European NATO member states against this invasion!
No it means if you start ethnic cleansing for two years and Europe does nothing the US not wanting to wait until that country gains enough strength to cause another WW like the appeasement of Germany
"... NATO completely failed to defend European NATO member states against this invasion!..."
This is an excellent point. How the top brass stood by and watched Merkel's insanity demonstrates the lack of a well-defined core principle within the NATO alliance.
This will (almost certainly) result in the various nations' militaries intervening and taking over fully, until the invaders are booted out. It's not going to be pretty. The leftist UN will try to 'encourage peace'; and this could bring the UN 'Peacekeeping' forces into conflict with the armies.
Such a civil war has never occurred before, where several allied armies are each forced to take over their own governments, while trying to round up the invading class and expel millions. Who will actually start? Who will be the most dispassionate? There's no way to do this "nicely"; and it's going to make interesting reading for future history scholars.
What's very clear, is the people like Merkel; and those in official positions who so enthusiastically embraced this self-destroying idea, should be prosecuted.
What surprised me is the complete lack of IMMEDIATE push-back when Merkel's invitation to the whole Third World went out. Trying to understand this, I noticed that this same 'silence' followed the islamic rape-fest in Cologne and in other European centres; and I realised with horror and anger, the medias' role in this deliberate failure to report public outrage. The media, of course, can claim, with some justification, that the government clamp-down on honest reporting prevented them from telling the world what was going on, but as usual with the media, this is nonsense.
The government and police, across Europe HAD certainly issued gag orders , but since when have the media been bound by this?
It was at this point that I understood how the complicit media are in fact (just as all leftist governments are) part of this world-wide movement to destroy Western Society.
This sounds like a 'Soros-style conspiracy'.... and it is. Time will prove this conjecture right.
...and the counter-movement to overcome this conspiracy, not going to be pretty.
>> 0:30:00
I really "LOVE" how he talks about Russia invading Georgia as if Georgian state did not try to oppress their Ossetian minority group. Yet when it comes to U.S. going to Yugoslavia to prevent ethnic cleansing by Miloshevich, that is "Peacekeeping".
1 mans terrorist is another mans freedom fighter.... 17 76 happy 4th July from the UK.. its all about respect..
There are ... many things wrong here.
First, Europe was not an empire, it was a collection of empires. And it had in fact long periods of peace - Germany for example, nowadays considered the most militaristic and ambitious state, fought no wars from 1871 to 1914. Fourty years of peace in europe. So it is completely wrong to say that all europeans lived in fear of each other. Quite the opposite was the case. Everybody was convinced that war would not come, and secondly, that they would win. And the July Crisis was not really that remarkable. Similar crisis had come before and were solved diplomatically, without any bloodshed. What was different this time was that this balance was threatened on two fronts. First, Germany had risen to become the most powerful empire, at least industrially, and was seeking to do what all the other empires had done before: Act on a global scale. Secondly, Austria was facing a slow but steady decline into meaninglessness. There was a lot of conflict in the air, because there was peace for so long. France felt humiliated and faced a similar decline, Great Britain was losing relative power in the face of a rising Germany and US, Russia was just Russia (some things never change). So, naturally, everybody tried to either better their standing, or not lose their position. That is really important, because Germany, being the youngest of the empires, and the strongest, had no natural allies besides Austria - who only were natural allies because they were also German, but they were weak. Much like the Ottoman Empire, the Sick Man of Europe, the KuK Monarchy was at that point a paper tiger. So Germany found itself surrounded by more or less hostile nations, with only one ally. And that ally was intent on regaining past glory. The Austrians basically gambled: Either they win the next war, which means renewing their empire, or they lose it and go down in flames, but they would also go down if they do nothing. And Germany was stupid enough to stand by their ally. The rest is history.
Second, IF the diplomats of 1914 had nuclear weapons at their disposal, there would have been no war. It wasn't better diplomatic skills or sober tempers that kept the Russians and Americans from fighting, it was the utter dread of complete nuclear annihilation.
Third, Europeans have been extraordinarily violent. Woohoo, here we go again... I guess he just ignores the American conquests and the native genocide to prove his point. He also ignores literally EVERYTHING ELSE. The only reason that Europeans seem violent to him is because he does not know any other history. You just have to look to China, the middle east, India, or really any other place that has produced civilization, to see that all of them also produce war. Need I remind you all of the Azteks? Who where so violent and hated that neighbouring countries banded together with the european conquistadors and wiped them from the face of the earth? And America is only pacifistic in the way that Europeans were pacifistic up until WW1: They fought all their close wars already, beating everybody surrounding them into submission (plus their civil war), and once they asserted complete dominance over their neighbours, they started to colonize the world and fight their wars on foreign soil.
The emerging crisis in Europe is unraveling exactly as it was planned 50 years ago by the same people who sent this Bozo to try and brainwash us into another crock of shit!
One of the reasons WW1 dragged on as it did, instead of one side running out of money and having to give up, like in most wars before (which raised volunteers expectations for a quick end - obviuosly a victory for them), was central banking. Germany vould not inflate its way into,m military victory (and future economic defeat), like the British and Amricans could, so they had to hyper-inflate to pay off the loans.
Also, civilization means, that a nation organizes its military horizontally and vertically, instead of all warriors charging into battle after the chief,
Early Europe may not had being an Empire,,, BUT, the inter marriages among the "autocracy" seems to make them, acting like one ??? All in the families, the ruling classes of Early Europe, then they started to fight each other, for power and greed ???
@@ludwigvanel9192 No, WW1 ended because of the Lord sending the Spanish flu to infect the combatants and populations supporting them, because the chastisement for sins of the flesh was sufficient.
However, the BVM came to Fatima in 1917 announcing the imminent cessation of the war, but warning us that unless we bettered ourselves, a worse war would erupt in the pontificate of Pius IX, who had not yet been elected. Man did not better himself and became a licentious monster, WWII broke out and world wide carnage of the illicit issue of fornicating men became cannon fodder.
Today, since satan unleashed the unholy Trinity of sex, drugs and rock ‘n roll, mankind, overwhelmed by carnal addictions, have reached the point of internet porn saturation driving men into masturbating nitwits, and a pandemic of prostate cancer rendering the west's ability to procreate null and void, while Islam increases to exponential levels of superior numbers to fulfill Isaiah 10:1-7.
All because we have forgotten God and how to pray and fast. Armageddon is on the horizon and its 11:59:57 PM.
Pray the Rosary if you know what's good for you. And, trust me, you don't.
@@roberthalf1094very interesting
I love listening to this guy
Priceless presentation. By the way, the town he mentions at 8:42 where his father met the Jews / weapons smugglers is Bratislava (capital of Slovenia, I think). Congratulations, Google!
Bratislava is capital of Slovakia.
Great conference, no matter you like the man's ideas or not.
So clear! Thank you!
Great talk.
A very wise and interesting man .
I wouldn't call him wise. If he was he'd shut the frack up a long time ago.
A brilliant presentation.
This is a surprisingly good talk. I agree with a lot of what George Friedman says here.
Agreed, so nuanced and I like the objectivity over the Ukraine crisis. It isn't often a man uses a personal story, disavows it as personal, and ties it into understanding the whole.
I think I´m gonna watch more of his talks. It has wide appeal both to academics and the everyday person.
Thank you Mr. Friedman for adding clarity to what is like to be part of the human condition. People, we are all one family, let's take care of each other and let's stop repeating the mistakes of the past.
You weren't listening to Friedman. He WAS being clear about the human condition, at least for Europeans, and that human condition is resort to war to settle differences that aren't settled by other means. His lecture discusses the prospect of war between Russia and EU-United States, and that is happening in pretty much the way he described.
Couple of questions? How does the current changing demographics in Europe; influx of African and Middle East immigrants, effect it in the long term in reference to Mr Friedman's predictions? If he believes that a nation is a generalized collective set of values and cultural norms and vote along those said values, how can he effectively predict what a nation will do if their demographics change? This is especially true a couple generations down the line; many of these immigrants have many more children as compared to ethnic Europeans.
He is probably a race "realist" and believes that your voting patterns come down to genetics, no joke. For example, they believe things like You can't let Hispanics have citizenship because they are brown skin which means they are lazy and dumb, and always vote Left for more welfare. Yes they really believe that, never realizing that Hispanics vote democrat because Conservatives are racists who call them dumb and lazy for being a little darker skinned.
@@tijuanaforeplay8232 why is the majority of welfare used by people with a darker shade of skin? Explain it without resorting to institutional racism. Bc you know indians and Asians do quite well. Why don't Mexicans and blacks?
Excellent question. Who knows what he'll say, all that matters is that we act, we must breed beyond replacement rates, we must incentivize our women to breed more, incentivize our men to be their husbands and rear children, that is our only way out of this shit show. Focus on the old gods, for they knew the way, your choice of course, as it cannot be forced. But nature demands. We must obey, OR WE PERISH. They show natures path, and in order to survive we must adapt. David I hope this reaches you and touches your soul, however you wish to act, is only up to you.
In America, immigrants have traditionally contributed far beyond their due. If Americans continue to destroy those attributes that make this happen and if the Europeans don't evolve to make this possible, the point I think you are alluding to, might come to fruition. This is why the current Democratic party in America is proving to be mentally bankrupt. (Republicans have their own bankruptcy problems.)
@@ericjohnson7234 you breed 🤣😂😎😆👨🔬you're all gay EUROPE....
A moving story and a compelling presentation.
Hard to believe this was from 2015! so timely for 2022
All said, he concluded there wouldn't be an actual war in Ukraine. And I'd be of the opinion that nobody was more shocked at the speed that NATO and the EU found its calling than George Friedman. The EU was also there with a big stick for Germany to beat them into line!
"I see no example of any empire that so rapidly destroyed itself, not because
there were external forces but because internally it was so unstable and so disorderly." ~ George Friedman
As an American who has lived in Europe for over a decade, I see that quote as more closely describing America than Europe, even granting the fact that George Friedman's analysis of the structural problems of the European Union is as impeccable, as his expectation of Russian behavior is flawed.
All in all, a brilliant lecture...jt
America has always been loud and brash BUT always open with its faults whereas others try to hide it also never forget USA is always in the spotlight so its EVERY move is observed, analyzed and critiqued. I mean look at Europe always Subsidizing its industry or bailing it out bit now that the US is doing it they are having strokes. Hipocracy at its peak I would say. No matter what you will always notice people saying that they love their country.
Wars are not fought with people you don't know? How about all the wars of conquest of nations around the world? Here we are 4 years later and Europe didn't fall apart...yet. Europe has other problems like confronting efficient Chinese production and unfair trade practices. They are also contending with an unprecedented amount of underproductive people who are on the dole.
they are unproductive because they dont see a future worth fighting for. its really that simple. To energize a population you must give them something to be hopeful about and an enemy to fight and win against.
>
Ummm. Here we are SEVEN years later and both peace AND prosperity in Europe are gone.
Yes so well said! People in rich countries often tend to lose touch with reality!
Muslim countries have filthy rich people, what is your opinión about that?
The entire talk is fascinating, but it begins to take off with the idea of the European Union, attributed to de Gaulle, around 27:20. 👍👍
Europe is a continent and not a people. And what ever the language suggest. There are no "Europeans". We have culturall differences like the US, Cuba, China, India. Therefore the consideration of Europe as a Union is a big mistake. Its fantasy!
+Martin Kaufmann too much past feuds between european countrys
Michael Corleone
And we are just to different..
yes america are pacifist, hmm a country based on genocide and slavery is pacifist. lets not talk about their wars in corea, vietnam, cambodia, iraq and afganistan. the whole of south america with some overtrowing of democratic elected goverments.
i do not understand this guy he thinks europe is an unified country ...
Thank you
Great program. Thanks.
Damn this aged well. That last point
As a European myself, i watched with lot´s of atention Dr Friedman´s points towards Europe´s fate while we do all recognize that all arguments made by him are well established, there´s a point that has escaped from his analysis, and that´s having to do with what new generations feel about European project, nationalism indeed exist in our continent, but the interesting think is that younger Europeans consider themselves primarily Europeans and secondly whatever their nationality might be, that´s because they travel freely ,establish relations, work , study in other countries plus a significant percentage is able to communicate easily in more than four languages,younger Europeans are quite educated sophisticated and see the future of their native land linked entirely into European project, we do know that in a world scene no European country alone can raise a loud enough voice inside a theater composed by actors as USA, China, India, Russia,Japan, Brazil, Indonesia,Mexico and so on....together we are a giant.....alone we are just a bunch of countries, at the end is not the only prediction in which Dr Friedman has failed....so far, as the one made for China some years ago, does not corresponds with today´s reality.Do we Europeans disagree one with other? of course we do,but we do not and especially the younger ones think of raising walls or going to war....... to give you an example : as you know during iiww almost all European families have suffered by some other European army, and while this is true for older generations to us younger such an incident represents a tragic moment in our common history, who in some strange way has contribute to the peace and thrive of Europe....yes we do not always agree with EU decisions, and that´s because we want Europe to mature and to act as a single entity......we are quite overconnected over here.....in every aspect: family,friends,work,studies,travel.....and so on, European project can´t be stopped because is moved by Europeans themselves.....Dr Friedman could not be more inaccurate....
Hi, I really enjoyed reading your post. Its refreshing whenever someone tries to form genuine arguments based on reason. I would like to start by testing some of your reasoned assertions here; simply reasoning that the EU is largely 'unified' and 'all together' is nice (this is the picture you are painting), but this approach discounts the real major problems the block faces and has failed to resolve for over decades now, and, misrepresents massively important divisions as a result within and across Europe ... deep structural economic and political problems that cause 'disunity' and now even part 'disintegration' via the second largest EU net contributor leaving under the banner of Brexit. Sure, we can discuss these issues 'together' ... we can say that "every territory has its problems" ... but this would be dismissive and doesn't alter matters. Maybe I should be more specific and less general. You 'say' or 'reason': "... we want Europe to mature and to act as a single entity ..." Really? Who's "We"??? (Who wants Europe to be a "single entity"? does this include Germany?) How many decades does it take to 'mature'? and why does EU economic growth consistently lag and remain so elusive?????? A "single entity"??? Really? Does this mean you are wishing for 'full alignment'? because Germany won't stand for full alignment on economic grounds - why would it do that? And in much the same way, as the EU increasingly centralized power the UK European skeptics increasingly became fearful of being less in control of policy decision-making versus centrally driven EU reprisals due to 'non-compliance' - this helped drive Britain away! As a result, the EU lost one of its largest most lucrative net contributors and you want to maintain a discourse about 'unity'? You say: "European project can't be stopped because is moved by Europeans themselves ...". With respect, you are conveniently lumping all Europeans together by reason alone. Which European project are you citing specifically? Broad political integration? Economic integration? A single immigration policy for all? - i.e., regardless of differences in democratic feeling (think Poland) or geographic vulnerability. Don't get me wrong, its good that you want to remain being a European. But the way the EU is being run is frankly irresponsible on behalf of nearly half a billion people. Its not "maturing" ... its being RUN!!!! Think about that and how the EU is being maintained (I contend that the EU is being run to benefit some more than others).
More specifically, Germany is the biggest beneficiary of "European integration" ... right?, which is not really full integration or "Europeans together" at all (you are wrong). The EU supplies the political and economic certainty on which German prosperity has been built and maintained against consistent low growth. No country has more to lose from a break-up than Germany. Thus it is not simply that "together we are giant ..." but Germany continues to do very nicely from the single currency indeed. Just look at the unemployment figures in Germany (4%?) and compare this with most of Southern Europe (25% youth unemployment?). What the Dang? There has been a spectacular rise in support for far-right parties in Europe over the last two decades, but what has driven this electoral success? Drawing on new research, Vasiliki Georgiadou, Lamprini Rori and Costas Roumanias demonstrate that different types of far-right party have benefitted from different factors: economic insecurity has helped increase support for ‘extremist right’ parties, while cultural factors have been associated with the growth of the ‘populist radical right’. This is just one existential threat that could lead the break-up of the EU. And this is just one of many links you can find on this subject (see below). The problem is, the EU has other massive problems too, each of which partly stem from how the EU is being run. It seems that political 'disunity' is a growing phenomena withing the EU (this is not "Europeans all together").
newrepublic.com/article/153964/will-radical-right-break-eu
It was the Americans that created the EU and funded the rebuilding of Europe towards this project after WWII (the EU didn't just happen because "Europeans wanted it"). Friedman observes this.
In terms of Friedman's central thesis though, he also makes various valid points 'for discussion' (The Next 100 Years is not a 'fixed prediction', it provides a framework for discussion about the possible future and he's clear about the limitation and role his methodology plays). That's my understanding.
He asks: if the EU fails to provide 'prosperity' what comes next? This is one of his big questions, because the EU is 'failing' on the back of this particular promise upon which it is fundamentally founded!!!! And people become more resistant to immigration and power being centralized once prosperity eludes them - our instinct is to regain something 'for ourselves' (think Brexit): I would argue that Brexit is an example of this happening as the EU starts to 'disintegrate'. And it is not going to stop there. Just as another example, what do you think will happen with Poland? Poland is now set to exploit the Polish Bloc's increased sphere of influence to rebuild its economy. The United States has begun to look at the Polish Bloc's growing strength as a potential future threat. To prevent Polish hegemony in Europe, the United States will ally with its former enemies Japan and Turkey, as well as the UK, to prevent Poland from dominating Eurasia, and will prevent Poland from making use of space for military purposes. Poland is already an regional power emerging that is land-locked hence the resistance to mass immigration we have seen. As it becomes even more powerful, it will naturally want to assert itself separately (It will only 'buy' EU 'unity' for a time and we already see cracks emerging).
Just a few thoughts, of which there is far much more I could inject to support a counter-argument to your own. But 'disunity' and 'disintegration' are present for us to see already.
We can disagree, that's fine.
Regards
At what point does support for European centralisation and unity simply become a new nationalism? And when it does will it be any less dangerous than the nationalisms it replaced?
@@rodneyhenchliffe754 thank you. As a North American curious about International Polices, your perspective is how I understand the current situation. Very well done!
PS, we, in the US are beginning to see similar fractions within the
primary 48 states. It raises concerns for me.
@@kirstinstrand6292 no worries, Kirsten. Interesting stuff this.
@@rodneyhenchliffe754 The "problem" with EU is that Friedman along with many others seem to think the goal of EU is to become "United States of Europe" while most Europeans simply see the EU for what it is, a structure of cooperation. What is breaking EU apart is rather the fact that the elite is striving for the "USE" while common people look at USA as something deterrent, showing how we don't want our future to look like.
Excellent
I thoroughly enjoyed this lecture which filled in quite a few gaps in my understanding. Thankyou Mr Friedman.
Thanks
" Is life so dear and peace so sweet as to be purchased with chains and slavery?"
"Get your facts first, then you may distort them as you please." (Mark Twain)
The emerging crisis in Europe is unraveling exactly as it was planned 50 years ago by the same people who sent this Bozo to try and brainwash us into another crock of shit!
@Robert Bonneau We don't need help fighting and killing each other ...
@Robert Bonneau The Nazis and Communists were put into power by the American bankers and corporations like Henry Ford.and Rokerfeller Standard Oil The allies were used as pawns for the globalists Britain didn't loose Palestine it was all planned by Theodor Herzl and the Transfer Agreement.Operation Market garden in September 1944 was a deliberate failure with Prince Berhard ss working with the British planners of the operation its why Monty said it was a success because they had the Bilderburg group meeting there ten years later in 1954 these group of globalists and Club of Rome created the EU the industrialists enslaving the European nations with their totalitarian anti democratic regime with the bread and circuses to pacify the sheep remainers making them believe in the EU as if they were Europe. The bankers took over America after the act of 1871 making up laws and new rules to make it difficult to acccess justice and the truth especially when they had the Federal reserve Act.And Thodor Herzl and Zionists who wanted to take over Russia because the Tsar didnt want the League of Nations and as Churchill a great supporter of the Zionsts said Jews were divided into Communists and Zionists Its bascially about the few who wanted to enslave the many through their distorted Satanic banking and law making hijack of the nations snake oil salesmen and their Frankfurt school Mkultra indoctrination of the school education system and the Tavistock institution school of popaganda .and the socialist marxist long march through the institutions and mass consumerism through cultural marxism.
@@EIKLURAM - What a load of crap. Sounds like you got your history from RT news (Russia). Russia is run by oligarchs afraid that "those clever Europeans" would usurp their control over the Russian people with European freedom and prosperity if given a chance.
@@rumchjoe No sorry nice try but you can't pretend there was no English Civil war and dismiss history as being part pf a Russian TV programme I was actually a well researched Bsc undergraduate in Psychology and Social science and .Whats your educational background?
This guy explains Europe so well. Brilliant speech
Interesting Man! I have almoust read his book.
This guy is beyond awesome :-)
Too many vulgar comments. People need to make their comments with a little less emotion and a lot more intelligence. I think most people would agree it would be embarrassing to them to read after they grow up.
I find George very thoughtful and I like the way he precedes his views with the facts as he understands them. I believe in listening to as many viewpoints as possible and drawing my own conclusions, knowing that the future becomes more recognizable the closer it comes.
I am grown up...BUT GUESS WHAT! I DON'T GIVE A SHIT!
There are many things right here. Europe needs to start paying for It's own defense and I whole heartedly agree that Europeans calling the US "Cowboys" is laughable considering they themeselves wiped out 100 Million of their own population in the last century alone. There is a reason why there are no competitive technology companies in Europe. I love the place, I love a lot of European people -- Being a Canadian (A very new country) it is so nice to see old culture, however, It is so evident that Europeans have so many conflicting Interests that It seems Impossible to form a coherent government body.
I see the value in maintaining Nationalism but I also see value in uniting, but it's so fraught with difficulty that I do not think It's going to happen. All the best and all the luck (You guys are going to need it!).
The Canadian :)
It might pain you to know that America actually financed WW2 and provided the means of industrial output to get the bombs dropping. Another thing, you gallant Americans are the ones poking and prodding the planet into hostilities that could otherwise be adverted. You start wars in the Middle East and for some reason, we get the refugees even though America starts the war???? You owe us more than money given you have effectively instigated a passive genocide from the influx of refugees you demanded we take along with the yes men America installed in Europe after the war. Typical Yank, clueless to the world outside of itself.
@@dunner079 possible. this is a serious test however, of your commitment to survival and the ability to adapt.
I agree with your assessment though, congress are responsible for a whole heap of shit, that they eventially didnt pay for.
There's not much I can disagree with here. I could only add to it, for example the other day an EU citizen/ debater told me that "the Americans run NATO" and argued that 'Europe' doesn't want the U.S. dictating their level of military spending. Fine, but 1.2% of combined EU GDP doesn't 'cut it', they have to start spending and cannot continue rely on the US/UK military alliance and spending to support them forever. Also, it shouldn't go unmissed that the current secretary general of NATO is the former Norwegian prime minister Jens Stoltenberg, who took office on 1 October 2014. Stoltenberg's mission as secretary general was extended for another four-year term, meaning that he will lead NATO until September 30, 2022.
Brexit itself remains testimony to the "return to nations" and the EU 'disintegration' process in action we now see has begun (it doesn't end with Brexit - UK Euroskeptics and the British electorate ultimately couldn't square greater EU centralization with dwindling prosperity under the banner of this 'grand project' - the natural instict is to take something back 'for your country'). Germany continues to prosper while EU growth continues to lag, and there isn't the prospect that Germany would ever advocate true economic integration - why the heck would they do that?
I won't continue ... but I see all of the 'disunity' and deep structural cracks that will ultimately bring devastating EU 'disintegration' on the back of how the EU is being RUN more for some than others. And we all know about the 'regional geo-political tensions', the history of Europe and how it likes to start wars on itself when things don't look 'Rosy'. I'm scared for them.
A great summary of recent economic history and where we're heading
Friedman is a joke. Charlatan trying to sell his books.
@@alterego157 Seems like it aged very well
Great talk, once he actually got started. Do yourself a favor and skip ahead to about 27:00. That's where he gets to the substance.
In light of current events isn't hard to see those who are pulling the strings.
curioso
And George Friedman is their prophet - to psychologically prepare the public about what is coming in the near future - ultimately controlling the world from Jerusalem.
Anaesthesia
Not only preparing the public but contributing towards the events( keen warmongering).
He misunderstand the Ukraine geopolitical dilemma. Ukraine has warmwater ports that Russia desperately needs and has been using under Ukraine for a long time peacefully. When the status of Ukraine came under question their hand was forced and they were obligated to invade. Europeans tempted Ukraine, but when push came to shove they had no ability or even thoughts about defending Ukraine
Not misunderstood. He just not tell it.
He understand it. And he will never say it in a direct way. He want to make another picture of the situation.
Ukraine is the birth of Russia.
@@kirschkern8260 well said
I am a German immigrant to the USA since 1963. Managing a German automation supplier / builder in the USA gave me insight in German and USA problem solving. USA and Germany have provided a good standard of living for most of their citizen but not all of them. The constant struggle to improve the lower income population is a serious challenge. Worrying what this constant struggle does to other countries takes a back seat. I do not see any solution from Mr. Friedman's video.
He is a jew so he claims Muslims as a problem and blames Germany then pretends he is not blaming anyone. Doublespeak bull.
"why did you buy it?"....because Standard & Poors gave it a triple-A rating??
Exactly! It’s a convenient omission by him.
And the financial channels still talk about ratings agencies as if they're not engaging in laughable conflicts of interest.
So, all Friedman knows is that France and Germany failed to conquer Russia. Friedman does not know his European history when he neglects to mentioned that the Polish and Lithuanian Commonwealth for centuries controlled the Ukraine, and even occupied Moscow for a few years in 1609. The Russians even made a movie about that recently with the title '1612'. Even Smolensk remained under Polish rule for over 100 hundred years. It is important to know this history to put things into perspective.Central and Eastern Europe rely on NATO. They fear an increasingly desperate Germany forming yet another 1939 type short term alliance with a Russia wanting to re-emerge as a dominant power. Friedman also forgets to mention that in 1920 the Poles saved Europe, at least a weaken Germany post WW1, from a Bolshevik invasion.
The Poles know the Russian threat only too well and resent how Churchill and Roosevelt failed to heed their warnings before the Yalta Agreement. There are really two Europes. One that enjoyed the post war economic boom, and another that suffered economic repression and political oppression under Soviet imposed communist systems. The Eastern half is only too aware of the Russian threat and have now become distrustful of Western Europe, particularly Germany. This divide could become more pronounced if Brexit occurs and Hungary have a referendum against taking refugees. Eastern and Central Europe are treated as second class and often vilified by Western Europeans who don't even bother to read the histories of these nations. The Germans in particular, but also the Brits have this very negative thing about the Poles. Very loud German individuals writing articles and Utube crap claiming that the Poles started WW11 as well as allegedly murdered two million ethnic Germans during 1945 to 1947, and who demand the regained Polish territories of Silesia and Pomerania, ain't helping matters any.Basically, America should leave the military affairs of Western Europe to France and England, and instead continue to bolster the military capability of the former East Block, who resent interference from Brussels.
There is a new dawn in Europe and that is the other Central and Eastern Europe. I was at the World Trade fair in Shanghai during 2010 and saw first hand the massive effort these nations are undertaking to also forge major trade deals with that other giant East of the Russian Federation - namely China. Interesting, the high quality Polish WW11 TV series "Days of Honour" about the Polish resistance to both the German invaders and subsequent communist government, which is only shown in Scotland and Italy, is being screened on Chinese Television. Watch this space as another part of Europe takes the lead in preserving Europe and its legacy against a potential Russian invasion.
So, aside from confirming that Poles like their alternative history phantasies, how could you explain why Russia would attack Eastern Europe? Just what's the point of attacking? A hint: Russia is a capitalist country.
Oh, you just confirmed the Russian agenda towards Poland and other East/Central countries by so casually dismissing their histories as fantasies. It demonstrates a disregard for the past that so directs these countries against you and disrespect as a precursor to a potential invasion. I am of Polish extraction and do take interest in history, yours included given that I also have some distant Russian ancestry as well. My take on your very sad history, where the greater majority got the raw deal and only the privileged few benefitted from Russia's imperialist glory, is that Russian people by and large are prone to brainwashing by tyrants The few dissidents are dispatched in short order. Democracy is not in your DNA just is not part of your sense of human dignity, pride, and self-respect as you allowed centuries of despotic rulers cruelly abuse you.
Marshall Pilsudski who sent you guys packing in 1920 was right about aq suffocating Russia, whether as repressive Czarists or Bolsheviks. I suppose the revenge of the Georgians was giving you Stalin, the Jews giving you Trotsky, and the Poles giving you the ruthless and psychotic Felix Dzierzynski, who created the murderous police state under Cheka later to be known as the NKVD. You say that Russia is a capitalist country. Well, newsflash, you can be both a capitalist country and an imperialistic and despotic one. Ask the German industrialists who scored big time as Hitler unleashed WW2.
Thank you. You confirmed the racist attitude of Poles towards Russians. I like your condescending manner of preaching, it sounds very funny and helps you a lot. But I digress. Russia is a capitalist country. It means that all expenses are calculated including the military ones. What is the point of occupying Eastern Europe? What resources have you got? Which product will compensate for occupation?
I am currently reading a biography of Pilsudski by Peter Hetherington. The future leader of a liberated Poland experienced his education in Russian schools where Polish history was belittled by Russian teachers, who like their then German allies were hell bent on destroying the Polish language and culture. They failed, obviously.Yes, the decline of the Polish and Lithuanian Commonwealth, which once held territory stretching from Livonia (now Estonia and Latvia) to the Black Sea was in part the responsibility of Polish, Lithuanian and Polonised Ruthenian nobles, as well as some poor decisions of Polish Kings. The consequence was Poland being occupied for 120 years by the Austrians, Germans and Russians.
Despite my Polish surname I am not a Pole. My knowledge of Polish history comes from non Polish historians such as Norman Davies and Hetherington, as well as Polish American Zamoyski. You call me a racist. Well, Sunshine your earlier flippant dismissal of Polish history, and describing it as a fantasy indicated that the Russians still have no respect for the Poles or other East and Central European countries, and, I responded in the manner I did. It seems that your fact-impaired notion of Polish history as a mere fantasy is either belittling or racist. While my equally condemning of the Russian history is racist according to you. You can give it but can't take it.
And, if Russia is a true democracy can you please explain to me why Russian journalists are murdered, or a protesting girl band is jailed, and why Putin still pulls the strings for nearly two decades with no end in sight. The man is ex KGB and now a billionaire for chrissakes! Now do you understand the vigilance by the former East Block when it comes to Putin's Russia?
Show less
Typical: lots of cliches, emotional statements, lies, but no specific information. The question was: Why would Russia attack Poland? What's the use? It's cheaper to buy something than to make war, then occupy a country with hostile population and feed it. Occupation must be deserved.
Friedman is todays Machiavelli and that is it what this wolrd need! Good jog George!
He's trying to help Europe by telling it like it is don't need to get offended
Uff... so much wisdom. Unfortunately for many Germans this man is far to honest.
True talk.
yes, I´m German, and all of my family had suffered, because of all of this.
@@corneliameyer8800 How?
Its just George's opinion. He didnt told many other facts and historical occasions.
Because he wants to shape a special picture.
I'm german and I dont really see how this talk should be worryieng to any german. Most of this is common knowledge in germany
The dad wanted to go to a strong country...the son wants to support the strong country.
Yup, evident aint it! And now grandson makes weapons for same army.
What? His dad wanted to go to a nation that was both internally and externally stable because his livelihood had been threatened twice by things outside of his control.
Now, Friedman is a geopolitical analyst. Is he supposed to say America isn’t all that important of a country? That America’s international clout hasn’t been injected everywhere? That any other nation post-Cold War offsets influence in any way? Get real, dude
yep pretty much. George's whole outlook seems to come from this story.
Friedman's father faced geopolitical reality and chose the United States. Good choice.
Friedman now analyzes geopolitical reality, and proves that his father made the right choice.
The only problem with that is that the United States continues to be involved in Europe ---currently confronting Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons.
The United States doesn't need Europe, and the smart basis for American foreign policy was identified by George Washing as America's first President "No entangling foreign alliances."
The United States should abandon Europe, and the world, to solve it's own problems. The United States is not the policeman of the world, and shouldn't try to be.
>> 0:32:40
"The problem with Europe is that the never had gone through financial crisis."
Really?! Never?!
Are you sure?!
"The problem with Europe is that they had never gone through a financial crisis" He's talking about the EU as an institution. Not the entire history of the European continent. He's talking about the actions and policies take be the EU and its subsets of groups.
The key is for Europeans to embrace what our Jewish citizens have added - have contributed - to our European identity.
Once we have acknowledged that and then seek to work with our fellow Jewish European Citizens we will go forward ...this is what European Citizens need to realize at this time (2018)
Very interesting video.
I am Hungarian and I was born 1957. I have studied history and especially thouse times when the I. and II. world war broken out. It was really crazy . The English king Edward the VI and the Willhelm the II were cousins. Yes, I agree that was really tragic what happened in Europa and what is happening now because of Brexit. But I wonder when I am listening G. Friedman how he couldn't realized America is doing the same? After 9/11 they fought 7 war in the Arabian Penninsula, and what about Vietnam, what about Serbia, what about other wars what they fought? Are they really so much different? No, I don't think so.
The US should leave the Ukraine alone.
Ukraine, and Bolivia and Venezuela and Iran, and Afghanistan, and Iraq, and... You get the picture. ;-)
Learned enough about history.
Thanks to George Friedman!
Like his very distant relative, Benjamin H Freeman.
19:04 Is he describing politics or relationships in a marriage? I can't tell.
Not that big a difference sometimes ...
europe was attacked. the common currency demands repayment of trade deficits.
they didnt do this. they tried to loan their way out. so the strangled became the strangler.
what a difference 70 years makes.
It was planned decades ago!!
Same MO
WWG1WGA
I lost my grandfather in war, my dad was 4 when he lost his daddy. This trauma never leaves, it stay in your cells even after several generations. My grandfather was brought into a camp, died somewere but my father and grandmother never found his body. His other brothers were also in camps budt they came back. These are heavy traumas. Now Germany is still a. country that I never connect with because of this. I know Germany is not Ok, some say that merkel is the daughter of Hitler, I know that they have always been steong in technology and that the nazi s moved to America after the war to work for NASA like Werner von Braun. It hurts that you speek like we are all evil, but the evil is on the top not with the normal people. Greed and power, that is what they want, we are just numbers, slaves. We have always been that, I know there is going to be a collaps, but this time it will be worldwide. We all have to get through because of all the money printing, the lies, the corruption.....but we all he e to get through it. My grandparents lost everything during war, my parents lost everything during crisis and probably we will lose it too, but better to be aware of whats coming then be unaware, then the shock will be so severe.
Buy Gold and silver
@@3m5r56 Hello Michael, thanks for your respond, I am protected, thx
What a load of horsecrap. If trauma stays with us then almost everyone in the world has genetic PTSD, your ancestors were in camps, mine were getting starved and shelled. No one had a good time back then, not even the Germans as individuals. You are right about the collapse and whatnot though.
It is true I am a descendant from the Caribbean and I know that the enslavement of Africans over centuries and the serious mistreatment has left a real scar and legacy that we have not been close to dare to contend with, but dare we must. Thank goodness the PM of Barbados is attempting to ask us to address this trauma and giving us confidence to move forward and ahead. I fully understand where you are coming from.
@@BillyBob-qu1fs The difference is only the Germans turned against the good democracy that their voters elected, to support a nasty Austrian with a supreme desire to torture & kill even tiny babies, with his writings published when he came to power. The real shocker is he started with the people of the Bible, but he or his successors would have eventually killed even the Japanese. I think what this woman is sharing is how aftershocks are real. One of my best History professors appeared to find it quite hard to like many people, knowing that his grandmother was raised up from the mud, by a young Russian soldier, in a German concentration camp. He was teaching Aggies, & the point was clear to me---- raise up as you go---don't rape & destroy--- because stories will be told about your actions, for centuries.
a marvellously flawed analysis by someone stuck in the past
My God, I agree.
So when were you born? Yesterday? Grow up.
Better to be stuck in the past than to be dead in the future. Wisdom improves one's chances of survival.
Why did Germany succeed after WWII is the same reason Japan is succeeding economically. Soviet and US post war occupation and redevelopment.
We blew them up and then rebuilt their country. If you want your country redeveloped host a war there. 🤷🏻♀️
Great talk!
It is really a strange view to talk about Europe as one single entity
American hubris
@@sonjak8265 Sure. He's from Hungary.
@@skunkjulio a long time ago..it does not count...his loyalties, if any, are elsewhere
He's a NWO man.
Why is it strange to talk about Europe as a single entity? - 28 nation states surrendered their national sovereignties to a central body (the EU) and when he talks of Europe he is talking about the EU.
I'm not a fan of the EU experiment but we might actually need some unity to battle the global changes humanity can expect in the coming centuries.
I'm curious what he has to say about the Muslim influence in Europe, specifically how it'd being affected by the large amount of immigration.
its not just islam, its the demographic change, large influx of Africans and Arabians storming into Europe replacing the native populations. That is the real issue, Islam, is just a political entity, we make it out to be this mythical thing that cannot be stopped, well it can look at the mongols, ooh so terrifying, just dudes on horseback, yet we beat them with new tech and a will to fight, something we have to give the proto Russians credit for, but we must first get rid of the traitors at home, the corporate and the elites with their monetary influence,
Europe must be made self sufficient to where a small loyal local business can compete and win against the international corporate and their scumbag bought politicians.
That takes innovation and a European community mindset, an alternative tribalism, and an end to the worship of celebrities, money, and material culture.
You should read the French novel "Submission." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submission_(novel)
It relates a plausible scenario in which the Muslim minority winds up taking control of the French government and imposing Sharia law.
The most poignant moment for me is when two French people are discussing the event. One says he's decided to immigrate to Israel. The other says, "I don't have any place to go."
In Greece the state paid jobs had ridiculous high salaries. Like a common bureaucrat got a house (yes, a house) after some 30 years in the job. Had a nice salary too. The train drivers had a so called extra month salary. They had 13, 14, 15, 16., 17. 18 and 19th month salary.
So, Friedman is of Jewish origin, his father was a Social-Democrate, "deeply committed Zionist" and participated in war against Russia, where Hungarian troops were famous for their atrocities in the Region of Voronezh and other regions exceeding even the German ones then when Hungary (as the former ally of Nazi Germany) was occupied by Soviet Army, his father wanted to leave Hungary because he was on some list. Mr. Friedman did not elaborate (or his father didn't tell him) that his father might have been a war criminal. That was why they did not leave for newly established Israel as Hungarians killed also many Russian Jews beside Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians. A version worth considering, isn't it? Not that I am nitpicking, just too many gaps in his story. Hungarian Jews were the luckiest in the Eastern Europe many of them remained alive because they were protected by Horthy and were sent to concentration camps after he was toppled by Szálasi not long before the Soviets freed Hungary.
Who cares what his father did. Get a grip on reality.
@EnhancedNightmare: Well, if anyone starts his/her lecture titled with "Daddy this, Daddy that" is not quite to the point, besides he tried to extrapolate his/her family's fate to make it a "standard" European fate. Well, it was not at least because his family belonged to educated part of society very tiny in pre-war Hungary. Second, if Friedman did not use his "brilliant" analytical abilities to understand that his father was just a time-server, if he did not read anything about Hungarian troops in Russia in WWII, what are all his predictions worth? @muskongasbay
Good for you. You have some sense of guilt towards Jews as your grandfather did not let some Jewish person into his home. Well, I am sorry to say but he probably had to do it judging by your "liberal" legislation, check it out, Jews, Blacks etc. were not allowed to certain places (including homes) in the USA even in 1960-ies. So you are very sensitive about it but it is not my problem. The problem is that you call "Putin regime paid trollski" a person who just gave his own possible explanation of Friedman's father actions. Just another proof that US Americans are racists who think that only them can have their opinions calling others "trolls". You don't realize how racist you sound, do you? BTW, how much are pro-Israel trolls paid now?
Рафаил Курмаев Meh, just story telling device. His daddy might have been a crocodile for what its worth.
TheHomoludens lol
I'll bet that the only thing that kept him from staying in hungary to kill jewish people is that his father was jewish and wound up on that list. Nothing more. Sadly this george freidman is like nearly every typical liberal jew, no moral ground at all. And due to that lack of moral compass the thought of blood shed is only too comforting, doesnt matter who whether it is killing or getting killed. People who lack any moral compass dont know the meaning of survival only blood letting whether its their own or someone else.
I am a Californian cowboy and Providence has blessed me.
Trab Rex, you are a poor wrench, victim of your own illusion, Fukushima radiation is responsible for many abnormal baby tumors and miscarriages in California, your Los Angeles is a breeding place for bubonian plague, and Californians are leaving the state in ever growing numbers as prices explode due to inflation, Yellowstone will blow soon, and many former silicon Valley employees are becoming broke and homeless, this is the dire truth of the black hate dark lord, which you so studiously ignored... I can easily bombshell your effin mind with more inconvenient truths, especially on your US satanic history... Yes you could say, you are the devils own country, and you trust in him, to lead a wonderful sensual live, full of comfort at the expense of the rest of the world, which you despise, until your venerated Saran molech Luzifer calls for repayment of your treaty with him, and you end up at the bottom of hell, where you will hear my terrible laughter, you s. O. B.... Mesukiel Aketeriel Mahakala Bala Bala HeHeHe... If you Don t reform or regret I will curse you before all humanity and all the angels and before all the seven hells until judgment day, I solemnly swear to God with everything, that is holy in me and for me... Don t you mess with the wrong guy.... Mesukiel Aketeriel Mahakala Bala Bala HeHeHe.......
Satan
Still probably true, though you be cursed with a plague of Democrats.
He quite rightly pointed out the great change that happened with the voyages of discovery. He failed, though, to acknowledge that the world today is undergoing just as great a change. The rise of huge corporations that can and do ignore international boundaries, choosing where to pay taxes and where not to, and when some of those corporations have a vested interest in armaments etc., in waging pointless wars in parts of the world in which they have have nothing on the ground to lose, and when they can effectively buy politicians, news media and therefore elections, it is as much of a change in geopolitics as in the age of discovery.
The private central banks are above the mega corporations in the food chain. They print money out of thin air and lend it for principal and interest.
Do you not smell corruption and tyranny just from that last statement alone?
Please do your research, but please keep the power of the bankers in mind while doing that research!!
Mike, and how evident it is all, the reality of the American Exceptionalism! Thank you for your well said comment.
Scary how perpetual warfare has become the new norm. Business as usual takes on a whole new meaning.
I now know who he reminds me of: Ben Gazzara.
David Kennerly He reminds me the least of G.W. Bush ......but he looks a little bit like him.
Dr. Smith from Lost in Space?
You're right. Ben Gazzara.
David Kennerly that is of no importance!
Dead on!
Awsome ,Eloquent Analyser ! Brilliant professor .
The triggered far left and far right hand in hand in this comment section is worth the popcorn. The full weight of history and geopolitics is squarely behind Friedman.
I was wondering why comments seem so unhinged...I'm watching 2 years behind
Matthew Revell
He hasn't touched upon the elephant in the room:
inconvenienthistory.com/5/2/3209
inconvenienthistory.com/6/2/3294
That's the problem with these predictive videos , when viewed from the future ,
they somehow seem to miss the point.
He completely lost me going into detail on Europe. Comparing Germany as an export nation in Europe to the United States hypothetically exporting 50 % of its product to Canada and Mexico is ridiculous considering the population sizes involved.
Germany has been a manufacturing center in Europe for a long time, that by itself has got nothing to do with the Maastricht Treaty.
Many good points, but how about the USA stays out of here instead of putting its big nose in our affairs every time. Go home, stay home, and start to mind your own business.
EU is nothing like he describes. 13 minutes in i'm gone
nah, I think he hits the nail pretty good, especially when you see what happened in the last 2 years
Greetings from Southern Bavaria
That’s because u don’t see their Agenda and the influence of the Pope.
Extreme clever!
This man is a genius. To answer the question of the power of germany: it's a country of engineers that at the one side takes pride in its bureaucracy and other side is driving by people that are fundamentally afraid and depressive.
They have a very functional efficient government (relatively speaking to most governments). They are very efficient administrators as well as engineers. More than any other country they have been able to handle the displaced workers of globalization by retraining for new jobs. But, being a mercantile power is their weakness. (Fine Living is the French's weakness lol).
I disagree with the speaker on wars; So many wars of conquests, had nothing to do with inter dependence; they had more to do with ambitions to take land and other resources from the weaker countries.
George has a habit of laughing to make his audience less scared
Me, The guy is raising European unity to stand up against their eastern giants neighbor Russia while denouncing Germans vision and economic relations with Russia as to their European neighbours and averting Thierry eyes from what they call transAtlantic relations
Laughs like George Bush
I believe he cannot help but chuckle at the daftness of his listeners. It always happens shortly before he tells a particularly sinister and devious lie.
@@velcroable such as?
@@alvarogines6788 I always thought so
Mr. FRIED Ukraine wants a fast tract to the European Union and NATO. This is a contradiction of unraveling.
So many PC reactions here. The man got right.
Very interesting to listen to this analysis 5 0r 6 years foward.
Europa has survived. The Greeks have rebuild their economy on a better basis.
Same for Ireland, Spain and Portugal.
Europa has renewed itself and prospered.
Until the Covid 19 pandemic.
I suggest George you take a prediction about Europa and work backwords to see what went wrong with your analysis.
You were very brave trying to see into the future. My respect, as the Germans say.
With your analytic mind , I would love to read the history of how Europa together solved the terrible problems we had then
Thanking you.
isn't Britain gone? aren't right and left parties growing while the center is dieing?
i wouldn't say the EU collapsed, but it's not as stable as it used to be
Two year further on, Europe is engulfed in WAR! Energy shortages are threatening Europe with economic collapse! The EU is falling apart ---Britain has left the EU.
This guy is batting about 30% in his predictions. He would do better if he said, “it will or it won’t happen.” Then he would be 50% accurate.
I don't think you listened carefully.
Hahaha
Brilliant mind
Mr Friedman has been far too long away from Europe to understand it well enough. His views are very American and faulty.
Surely you would want criticism from an outside perspective
Aren't many Americans largely of European decent? I'm only half way through this and trying to understand why he talks about Europeans as though they were an homogeneous group, when up until quite recently Europe was, and still is to a lesser extent, a collection of countries speaking different languages with differing food, traditions etc. France, Germany, Italy were each made up of smaller countries speaking differing tongues in the 1800's. Naturally they had wars just as the people's in the Bible over thousands of years fought wars with their neighbours, Syria, Egypt, Persia, The Hittites, Israel, Moab, they were all at it!. Just as some of the native Americans fought tribal wars. Truth is is that fighting wars is a human, generally male trait, and not exclusively European by any stretch of the imagination!
This dude wants to sell his book.
Wow. Why on Earth would he want to do that?
@@jonfungg
That doesn't make him incorrect. Coke Cola wants to sell Coke and Coke is awesome.
You mean that he is not honest?
I thought he wanted to sell the Holocaust?
04:35, to say that your parents became a threat is a bit underrated... they were marked for extermination, they were lucky not to be murdered together with the other 600000 Hungarian Jews.