The Bitcoin Halving Explained
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- Опубликовано: 8 апр 2024
- Get the Bitcoin course here:
www.bitcoinuniversity.com
In this video, I discuss the Bitcoin halving, and how the block subsidy gets cut in half every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every 4 years. The halving helps to strengthen the Bitcoin network, by weeding out inefficient miners, while leading us closer to the end of new BTC issuance and the final max supply of 21 million coins.
Unlike fiat currencies which are managed by central bankers, Bitcoin's monetary policy is programmatic and transparent. Everyone knows the rules of the system that they are opting into, and there is no room for insider trading and control.
The halving is also a good reminder of why it's important to keep Bitcoin's block size small. Limited block space helps to create a robust transaction fee market for Bitcoin that can help it to transition from a network mainly funded by new issuance (block subsidy) to a network that is funded fully by transaction fees.
This will become increasingly important as the block subsidy continues to get halved every 4 years. When a block is not completely full, it's still possible for people transacting to bid only 1 sat/vb. When blocks are full, that's when the transaction fee pressure ratchets up, and can help to replace lost revenue from the block subsidy declining.
Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.
What the halving is NOT:
/ 1772643558035534110
Mempool.space:
mempool.space/
My favorite Bitcoin data dashboard:
bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashbo...
Corruption at the Fed:
www.wsj.com/articles/dallas-f...
www.reuters.com/markets/us/fe...
www.reuters.com/markets/us/bo...
www.reuters.com/business/fina...
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF the fastest growing in history:
/ 1777346944852979954
Bitcoin hashrate chart:
www.lookintobitcoin.com/chart...
I am not being paid or otherwise compensated by any company or cryptocurrency project that I mention in my videos. My opinion is not for sale. Please do not contact me with any affiliate or advertising deals.
#Bitcoin
#halving
Disclaimer
Neither Bitcoin University, nor any of its directors, officers, shareholders, personnel, representatives, agents, or independent contractors (collectively, the “Operator Parties”) are licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisors, or registered broker-dealers. None of the Operator Parties are providing investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, and nothing in this video, on this RUclips channel, or at www.Trader.University or www.BitcoinUniversity.com (henceforth, “the Sites”) should be construed as such by you. This video, channel, and the Sites should be used as educational tools only and are not replacements for professional investment advice. Trading or investing in new and volatile assets like Bitcoin can be risky.
I was literally explaining to a coworker this morning about how the difficulty adjustment accounts for miners getting priced out after the halving. Thanks for making me look smart👍🏼
Nice
@@Bitcoin_University Hi Matthew. Have you ever made a video on how Bitcoin ascertains its own value and is decoupled from fiat, and if so, what is it called? Im trying to get my head around this and would love an explanation on it if possible.
@@tovstehit’s called hyperbitcoinization
Pay little attention to the halving.
Continue stacking corn.
HODL.
Good advice
Bitcoin is absolutely fascinating.
What a great comment. It really is, isn’t it?
Bitcoin is so deep that even though i bought my first BTC back in september and i watch BTC content every day, i still learn new things.
when it starts to change every single way you view the world, you're beginning to understand Bitcoin.
When you’ve been through a 4 year cycle you’ll learn even more!
Easy to think you understand it while you are in the black …
@@MissSaussey true but I bought at 25k and sold all my stocks just to get in. Back then nobody talked about it. So I consider myself a bitcoiner already. I don't think I'll ever get to be negative with my cost average
@@josephshatrowskywait until you realise BTC is a Ponzi scheme and BCH and BSV are the real versions of bitcoin. Peer to peer cash for the internet! Read the original white paper by Satoshi, and don’t listen to the scammers of Greg Maxwell etc.
If RUclips allows me to hit the likes button 100x, I would smash the button for this channel!
I appreciate that
He is solid .
420 this year is a palindrome as well. 4.20.2024 which adds to the auspicious nature of the day. 😎
Wow, that's crazy-- I hadn't noticed that before
@@Bitcoin_Universityholy **** wow he’s right. It is a palindrome
@@Bitcoin_University Simulation mode!
419 lol
K
WARNING: There are a number of scammers who are using my image and channel name to try to connect with my viewers on WhatsApp and other platforms to scam them. Just so you know, I will never refer you to "my personal trader" or try to connect with you personally to sell you something. I am trying to ban these scammers as quickly as they pop up. You can always recognize a scammer by clicking on the image and seeing how many videos he has. All of these guys have zero videos, while I have hundreds. I also now have a checkmark next to my name, so that you can distinguish the real Bitcoin University from the imposters. Follow me on Twitter @mattkratter
Pin your comment so that it shows first when we look at comments
One day people will look back on this time and realize that bitcoin was the future. No matter how much you put in,you will wish you put in more
🎯
Great info! Thanks Matt
Thank you Matthew!
I really appreciate and look forward to your videos, Matthew.
Thanks for your support
Great video, thank you.
I love your videos, Matt. I really get so much out of each video. I appreciate this.
I appreciate that!
A heartening video. Thanks.
Thank you, Matt. The "golden" hour of the day comes with each of your videos. I should start calling it the "bitcoiner" time. It is nothing but fair. HODL!
Thanks for your support
*magic (bitcoin) hour*
@@Cheyemos That is!
i am realizing that there are NO bad videos here. this is yet another example of excellent work and great information. Thank you. listening to what you say, even a novice can make good decisions about Bitcoin.
Thanks this is very reassuring!
Sharing with those close to me, thank you 🙏🏽
Thx Matthew
Thanks Matt!
Stock-to-flow is key to understanding BTC and the effect of the mining yield.
Great content
I love how Bitcoin is a map of fractal Truth. Not only does it operate as a self referential language of truth, but in asymptotically approaching a finite supply limit, it mirrors the process of seeking Truth, in that a full knowledge of truth is impossible but the seeker can approach it asymptotically forever. In this way, Bitcoin is a map of the spiritual pursuit of God... and it works for any religion. It's 'truly' mind blowing.
Very God-like, actually.
Hmm..very interesting. I had to look up the meaning of asymptotically. Very glad I did. We live in an expanding and finite universe, according to Jude Currivan. I see combined satoshis having the same quality. It's a thought that requires more thinking..
🤯
Please can you make a video on the current distribution of bitcoin. Thanks
Useful info thanks. But who would buy those unprofitable mining rigs after the halving, wouldn't they just become junk? Or could they be repurposed, or maybe only bought by someone who has access to cheaper or free electricity?
Matt, if miners have an existing power contract to buy x amount of MW, they may still have to run their mining rigs to limit losses. Unplugging and selling rigs may not be an option for some due to contractual commitments.
Matthew, congratulations on the shoutout by Dante Cooke at Swan Bitcoin...
Great vid. BTW, finally started using blank slate but can't work out how to make the background colour black like you have - can you help? thanks.
Great video
The crash in hashrate post China minning ban in 2021 felt like the end of the world. Wild to see where the hash rate is now, I would never have imagined the current hash rate back then!
this is very good info
Cheers again Matt - great explanation for the noobs
Just DCA and put in surplus. BASED!
Would like to see a video explaining what Bitcoin core devs do and maybe explain what's happening between Michael Saylor and them just recently.
Sooner or later a sat will be too valuable to be the smallest denomination. Would a split be done on the base layer or a side chain.
Already liking thus videi
Last cycle: "I think bitcoin will peak around $280k"
This cycle: "I don't really know or have a prediction"
Bitcoin humbles us all
Sometimes we have to realize, the government is not going to tell you anything about investing your money, so we all have to learn this things for ourselves
Did you see the Rodger Ver meltdown reaction to one of your videos?
If everyone likes you your doing something wrong
it was pretty good. He got absolutely #rekt in his own comments on the video
Matthew, thanks for another great video. Could you please give us your opinion on the below statement ? (Not mine, but I caught my attention)
"If the large miners take over the smaller ones and this continues in the future, then ultimately a relatively small club will remain that determines what happens on/with the blockchain. Add to this that the yields are smaller due to the halvings that continue to take place. This may provide an incentive to do something to generate income.
This means that the chance that the miners jointly decide to adjust the code so that the yields increase increases."
How do you feel about PlanBs stock to flow model these days? I believe you used to cover it when I first started watching (Nov 2020) Do you feel the model is unreliable in light of what happened in 2020-2022 or attribute that to a black swan? I enjoy your technical breakdowns and notice you shy away from price predictions more and more but I did enjoy those too. 😄
MY DEAR FRIEND I JUST WANTED TO CLARIFY, IS NOT THE HAVING NOR THE HALVING NOR THE HALVENING, IT IS “THE HALFIN”, THANK YOU, (RUNNING BITCOIN)😊, THE ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT, THE BITCOIN CORPORATION
RIP Hal Finney, legend
Commented on the blockhead video and Roger Ver's comeback video he posted the same day.
I think it's worth discussing some of his comments...
Stay Humble.
Stack Sats.
Question: How do fees adjust in coordination to the halving. Is it better to consolidate BTC now with low fees as fees will go up with future halving?
It's impossible to know for sure, but I would expect transaction fees to move higher after the halving, so now is a great time to do a utxo consolidation
Getting allot of this from everywhere: So instead of setting off a rally, Hayes expects this next Bitcoin halving could instead "add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets."
Also could you comment on this Matt :The proposal to permit the listing and trading of Bitcoin ETF options on the New York Stock Exchange
Thanks for this. Do you suggest we buy and hold Bitcoin.
That's what I'm doing
💯 BTC is my savings account as well. This is the way.
This is the way
Same here; except that I hold a bit of ETF as my checking ("near cash") account.
It's cool that at the end of a period when the block reward is at X%, there's X% left to mine. I don't know if this is a coincidence or by design (I suspect by design). So when this next halving occurs, there will be 6.25% remaining to mine (93.75% already mined).
Anything on Runes ? In the pipe?
Hey Matthew, thanks a lot for all your hard work, these videos are always my go to source of information for Bitcoin related question.
I'd love to see a video about your day to day life, especially on how you personally deal with all the no-coiners that are inevitably all around us.
I feel like since I went full btc maxi, I'm being looked at as if I was a wretched dastard by friends and family that I was convinced would listen if I tried to explain the logic behind Bitcoin.
Alas, they're not interested in the history of money, the disasters of fiat or everything else that is paramount to understand, all they see is "cryptos = scams" and I can't argue when I also deem this statement to be 99.9% true.
How do you cope with basically having the whole world against you? Any advice on how to conduct ourselves while we wait for a slow and painful adoption?
This is a great question and a great comment.
Does the halving mean that the bitcoin security budget is cut in half -- or that bitcoin holders get a 50% discount on their security spending? The 50% discount seems like the network is getting twice as efficient.
Is, was halvening?
We should look at power consumption of the mining network not hashrate because hashrate will increase regardless because of hardware improvements but if an attacker has the same hardware it will boil down to who has more available power the attacker or the network.
Difficultly adjustments doesn't increase the hashrate. The networks total power consumption(hashrate) will adjust to the total value of fees from each block based on the average cost of power.
The halving hasn't destroyed bitcoin because the price has been growing exponentially but this growth is unsustainable and the transaction fees will have to replace the coinbase one day to maintain the security of the network
the growth rate unsustainable? it's a 1 trillion dollar market cap of total addressable market exceeding 450+trillion. Bitcoin hasn't even got started yet.
@@MrRem7600 The US bond market is only 50 trillion and this is said to basically be the current global reserve asset. If bitcoin is to take its place it would have some where around 50 trillion market cap not 450 trillion.
but still regardless if fees dont take the place of the coinbase subsidy then the bitcoin network will lose security from loss of miners.
@@graphite774 who said Bitcoin's addressable market is limited to the US bond market? Bitcoin is a financial black hole that will devour every single market on earth - specially ones where fiat is grossly obfuscating commodities and utilities through rising inflation. You're probably the only person i've seen try and argue that hashrate isn't representative of power consumption in the network. ASIC, transistor and circuit design moves relatively at a snails pace compared to the measured rise in Bitcoin hashrate, which mind you continues to be unprecedented. Trying to claim it isn't representative of power consumption and is somehow indicative of a fake network is a either a misunderstanding of how Bitcoin works, or you're being disingenuous for reasons you're not yet stating.
@@MrRem7600 hashrate is proportional to power consumption but hardware imrpovements are a factor as well. looking at power consumption is just a better way to measure security than hashrate. For example if power consumption remains the same hashrate will still increase giving a false sense of increased security. but yes majority of hashrate increases are from more miners. higher hashrate is usually better
@@graphite774 No, it will not. Hashrate is what provides security to the network, not power consumption. Consumption is indirect to hashrate. What you've effectively just said is an integrated circuit from 20 years ago that uses 10 times more energy is somehow more powerful than equivalent technology built right now with a lower power usage but higher hash output.
I’m looking at getting a wallet to replace my Ledger. Should I go with Coldcard or Jade?
Coldcard if you can afford it
@@Bitcoin_University how’s the quality of the screen. This concern isn’t really a near future thing but 10-15 years in the future would it hold up?
ETF s in HK not price in , 💺 seat Belts on , Cabin Crew take your seats 😅.🌕☄️
Also considering GBTC selling 2500 BTC/day, halving won’t matter much until GBTC’s stash of 320k BTC is significantly reduced which is sometime late Aug
That's my estimate as well. I'm not expecting much action over the coming days - except for the usual bit of "crypto trading" sensationalism and manipulation. However, by late summer the supply shock will start being felt. So, take a chill-pill, and enjoy every moment of your life.
Buy more !!!! HODL !!!!
I wonder when Hollywood will do a movie about Bitcoin
We don’t watch movies , we all day in Charts 📈, X and at the Beach 🏖️ 😊
There's already a few
It is said that A.I. will increase global GDP exponentially over comming decades.
Don't you think that also increases T.A.M for Bitcoin by multifold?
Seems to me bitcoin issued to miners/halving wouldn't mean 'less added to circulation' and affecting 'supply' immediately.... until put INTO circulation. They're in the business of making profit, not having to cash in immediately because they only make what covers expenses. So is there any accurate data showing how much is cashed and how much hodled by miners?
The only metric that is worth measuring is the worst case scenario, that is realized monetary inflation rate and total supply issuance. Any HODL'd or lost Bitcoin s deflationary to circulation supply and velocity.
Interesting...Satoshi was very well ahead of everyone! As BTC is like Ai taking care of global money policy!!
Now comes the fun time LFG!
Can we rather aim for $694,200 at the Halving?
I endorse this suggestion
Video topic?:
Controversy regarding devs ,Michael Saylor and Odell. I'm not smart enough to understand😜😉. Not sure if you know anything about that🧡
Sooooo should I hodL my bitcoin or sell now?????
I'm going to hodl forever-- it's not worth trading in and out
sell for what? Bitcoin is the most superior thing you can own.
Hi Matthew, I have been downloading bitcoin core for over 3 weeks now and the downloading speed is going slower and slower and I am afraid that the number of new blocks on the blockchain by day gets higher that the number of blocks I download by day and so that the download never ends. I'm using a quite old computer with ubuntu that works very well when not downloading btc core. Do you think it's worth to continue the downloading or should I stop because it will never end ?
Older computers seem to have a lot of problems like this-- I just downloaded the blockchain in about 30 hours onto my new Start9 for comparison. 3 weeks seems like there's a problem
@@Bitcoin_University thank you for your answer, I will try to make it quicker and if there is no possibilities I will just use sparrow with a bitcoin public server
This halving will be the most important one valued in USD. The rate of newly mined BTC went down but the BTC-USD price went up by more in proportion. Every month 2 billion USD worth of new BTC are mined and this will be cut in half so a halving of about 1 billion USD value per month.
What decides wether a new block comes in 9:00 , 9:20,... up to 11 minutes?
Congestion or lack there of (of the network)
Actually, it is just random luck. The probability (given overall hash rate and difficulty) is 10 minutes, but it varies. The further away from 10 minutes, though, the less likely (for example, a 60 minute delay between two blocks is very infrequent, and 90 minutes much more so)
In your opinion what will be the bitcoin price at the bottom of the next bear market?
I have no idea
We don't know what the bottom will be but we know it'll be higher than the previous bottom. Higher highs and higher lows every cycle.
@@Hboogie182 that make sense, so it is unlikely that it will be $12K or $15k then
@@Hboogie182 To be fair, we don't even know that. Bitcoin can take many different paths on its way to millions
@@Bitcoin_University if it falls below the previous low then it loses it's purpose as a store of value. You have to maintain higher highs and higher lows or else Bitcoin is not the apex asset.
Is Bitcoin turing complete?
No-- by design, so that it has a smaller attack surface
How many BTC are lost 4 ever? In your opinion or research
It’s estimated anywhere from 3 to 5,000,000 coins are lost forever
I guess you got to start somewhere when it comes to learning btc,surely this is an easy one for beginners, must feel like a singer thats sang a song to many times, fair play to you for the patience of making this one
👍💯
BTC is the best ever investment..Do DCA
Hey Matt, are there any places to buy bitcoin at no fees in 2024?
No. There's always a fee or spread charged. My favorite places are River Financial, Swan Bitcoin, Strike, and Unchained
@@Bitcoin_University thanks Matt! And appreciate you giving us this free info. I’ve learnt a whole lot over the years from you
Just one or two cents of my information to add to this is I use the standard coinbase (not the pro version) and I set a limit order…
It’s a little wonky.
Say the price is $67,000, I can set a limit to buy at a price I *think* it might dip to. As long as it is 1% or lower than the current price it is right now…
So, there is still a fee but less spread or no spread.
If the price is currently $67,000, they add on that purchase fee AND a spread fee.
But you might end up waiting days, weeks or potentially never hitting your limit order (on coinbase)
Not that I like coinbase or recommend it… because I don’t. I just happen to have started with it & am all set up, find it easy to buy then move bitcoin off of the exhanges.
Do you think we have a high likelyhood of moving to a BTC circular economy. It seems governments have figure out they can never stop the network. So their last attempt will be to outlaw the use of "NON KYC BTC". To choke you off from buy anything with it if it hasn't been KYCd with full history and explanation of where it came from.
Ha how are they going to pull that off? Better to encourage it and collect capital gains taxes.
I think they can just make it illegal to accept for payment. Try to run a business with a bunch of BTC on your books and no way to explain its origin.
If Moore's Law applies to bitcoin miners, then it may be that their efficiency doubles about every two years. If this is so, then we can expect the hash rate to go up faster than the bitcoin subsidy rate goes down. Of course this still means buying the newer, more efficient miners.
Mining ASICs do provide a far greater incentive than most other uses to find that breakthrough which would move us past the physical size limit of silicon atoms that the latest gen of chip designs are right up against. The timing of this massive new capital incentive is perfect.
@@paullamb1100 There are potential algorithmic improvements as well. Although SHA-256 is very well designed.
Hey, I liked your videos so much. Please consider using your image and changing, from time to time, your voice tone ;-) Great work you do!
Why? That’s Matt, baby. We love it. We don’t want him to change a thing.
That’s Matt, baby, we like him exactly as he is.
😂
@@fowchiiiliedpuppiesdied seeing a face works better for me
Just speed up the video 😂
Matt, something else that happens at the halving... it becomes twice as easy to buy bitcoin. ;}
It does?
*yes*
Hypeloot paves the way for your victories.
The miners are in control of maximizing the network users fees as high as possible with arguably is unnecessary friction
Except it is a free market, and they compete with each other.
@@paullamb1100 yes just like how eBay, Amazon, Etsy compete I understand it’s how can they make the most the customer is able to pay but that will limit its use case to only transactions that are more profitable
But hey what do I know and more important what do most people know 🤤
You say the halving year is always the Presidential election year and a leap year.
True so far, but it doesn't look like that will always be the case. So far the date of the halving is drifting earlier each time it happens, although the drift seems to be slowing down. Stochastic process, but seems to end up as a bit less than 4 years.
A smaller nitpick is that leap years get funny at the century mark. 2100 will not be a leap year.
BTW, the drift tends toward the left because of exponential growth in the network hash rate (which means the difficulty adjustments are more frequently needing to slow down the block rate than increase it) This will likely continue for the foreseeable future, until mining becomes so prolific and the ASICs used are approaching the limits of silicon chips, so that new miners coming online have little impact on the total network hash rate.
While the ~19 million Bitcoin already mined suggests the upcoming halving will not introduce a supply shock, it's also true that miners are the only natural sellers. Lost coins will never move again, and the majority of coins are held by hodlers who'll not sell until they need to buy a house for their family, if at all.
yes - and if they become the main source of supply globally for ETFs and exchanges, then they can effectively offer their BTC for the most expensive price
HODL
Bitcoin halving at the Führergeburtstag! ❤️
I still not understand a thing about it
I actually contacted Clark Moody to confirm the time on the dashboard: it's your local time zone!
Thanks for doing that-- good to know
isnt the crypto future exciting 🤗
5thScape is on a redemption arc, hoping it doesn't end up on crypto Twitter's roast list 😬🔥
Or miners will shift their rigs to other projects...
There are no other projects, and SHA-256 miners can only do one thing. No one is switching to dead forks like BSV or BCH, sorry
@@Bitcoin_University Ja Wohl! Thanks for letting me know. Love your enthusiasm Does this mean we will see Bitcoin go parabolic in the coming weeks?.. me like number go up!!
@@Bitcoin_University Ja Wohl. I love your enthusiasm. Does this mean that Bitcoin will go parabolic in the coming weeks? ..Yay! Me like number go up
I just made a video to discuss this further:
ruclips.net/video/7V7h87YJYPE/видео.html&ab_channel=BitcoinUniversity
Nom nom nom. BTC eat em up.
🥩🥩🥩 comment for the algo
Bostic said he accidentally did improper trading?! Lol
Sad to say I have moved into altcoins but just to try and get enough gains to improve my BTC stash. BTC is King 👑
That's a terrible idea. Here's why:
ruclips.net/video/0jT5BqMPBRE/видео.html&ab_channel=BitcoinUniversity
That is a one way ticket to wrekd city. Speaking from experience. Hard lesson.
Dumbass alert
I used to do this and it's a mistake. Bitcoin maximalist portfolio outperforms portfolios with altcoin allocations.
stop trying to time the market. The only thing that matters with Bitcoin is time IN the market.
anyone that has to google 420 or 69 cant have bitcoin
4:50 Mrs Kratter having a baby?
Lol, no, we're well past that stage now. They're wasting their retargeting ad budget on us
Wut
❤❤❤✝️✝️✝️
We have to stop categorizing Bitcoiners. Everyone will become a Bitcoiner. Perhaps referinf to OGers