Evaluations have gone up over the last 100 years. Zooming out, it feels like the message to young people is "if you want to participate in the market you need to pay more". It feels like another version of borrowing against your children's future to fund your retirement. To be more clear taking actions to prop up inflated stock prices gives me this feeling.
Thanks for this video a interesting subject matter. Especially in 2023 when social media, news and emotions can make things so un rational with stock prices. I think FOMO fear of missing out can ruin your rational decisions. From my experience this is a costly mind frame. Some sectors I believe are expected to grow like staples, food people have to eat this to me is a expected return. of profit along with energy especially in Canada heat etc.
I am going to prepare my retirement plan based one 0% real return, I should have some wiggle room when I reach my FI day based on that real return rate.
@@rickavory true. But what is scary here is that even holding equities for long term like couple of decades does not guarantee positive return. It only increases chances of positive return. Still invest we must.Not much alternative out there for preserving value of a capital in time.
Not relevant to this topic, but has anyone looked into Fully Paid Securities lending? Seems like trading tax implications + loss incurred from your brokerage failing for the ability to earn some interest income. That pitch sounds great but it seems to have never been discussed here which makes me think it's a bit of fool's gold...
Great content, as usual! Thanks from Brazil 🇧🇷
Thanks for the compilation, it‘s always beneficial to review & reflect.
So Much value on this video !! Thank you so much
Fantastic collection. Thanks a lot.
This is really great. Best I've seen.
Evaluations have gone up over the last 100 years. Zooming out, it feels like the message to young people is "if you want to participate in the market you need to pay more". It feels like another version of borrowing against your children's future to fund your retirement. To be more clear taking actions to prop up inflated stock prices gives me this feeling.
No valuations have been fairly steady. Pe around 18-19 before crash of 1929 23 before 1987. Median around 16.3
31 in March of 2000
Valuation as a forecaster sucks 5 years and less but golden looking out 10 years the data shows
I’d argue valuations ever so slightly higher than 100 years ago probably because so easy to own equities with easy to buy broad based index ETF’s
I was here yo!
Thanks for this video a interesting subject matter. Especially in 2023 when social media, news and emotions can make things so un rational with stock prices. I think FOMO fear of missing out can ruin your rational decisions. From my experience this is a costly mind frame. Some sectors I believe are expected to grow like staples, food people have to eat this to me is a expected return. of profit along with energy especially in Canada heat etc.
Whats with that guys photo on the wall lol
I am going to prepare my retirement plan based one 0% real return, I should have some wiggle room when I reach my FI day based on that real return rate.
Overal the message sounds pesimistic: forget about expected returns and prepare for the unknown. Everything is uncartain.
Many indicators say uncertainty is here for a while. Not talked about by many (yet) are changes coming esp thru automation and AI.
Uncertainty is what yields the equity risk premium! If there was absolute certainty, you may see realized returns closer to treasury bills.
@@rickavory true. But what is scary here is that even holding equities for long term like couple of decades does not guarantee positive return. It only increases chances of positive return. Still invest we must.Not much alternative out there for preserving value of a capital in time.
Not relevant to this topic, but has anyone looked into Fully Paid Securities lending?
Seems like trading tax implications + loss incurred from your brokerage failing for the ability to earn some interest income. That pitch sounds great but it seems to have never been discussed here which makes me think it's a bit of fool's gold...