The lack of inventory is a lack of liquidity. Interest rates are going to stay high. Once sellers become so distressed they are forced to sell that liquidity and inventory will skyrocket. The prices will have to fall enough to compensate for the cost of high interest rates.
I didn't include that as I didn't see that as a direct impact to housing. I could be wrong, but that's more for rentals, tourism etc. But the idea is one to consider for another video - thank you.
Just to point a few of the many flaws in this video. Demand is up because it is purchase season. Demand always goes up during the spring and summer no matter what, but demand is down if you compare spring and summer 22 to spring and summer 23 which is what you should be doing. How can you compare demand during the winter to the spring? As for supply please tell me what happens when ALL of the new construction set to be completed in the next 12-18 months hits the market? If demand has fallen year over year and supply increase during the busy months, what you think happens when the fall and winter come where there is even less demand and even more supply? Also I’m a mortgage professional who has been a loan officer, processor, and now post closing manager
Thx @kevothagod6144 - good inputs. I wouldn't say "flaws" as each market is different. Summer in South Florida is demand wanes due to the heat. So, not as many tourists/buyers this time of the year. Supply down here is down 22 of the last 24 weeks - by over 40%. So LOW supply. But, even tho demand is off a tad, Florida is still the #1 place where folks are migrating to - so demand is strong - even with 6.7x% rates. So... each market has it's nuances. And ultimately, we "will see" how it all plays out each day, each month etc... It's great to have various perspectives. Thank you!
@@johnmwieland this is why I say flawed. You make no mention of the new construction. How many permits are still pending and haven’t been completed yet down there? Over 18,000 residential permits for single and multi family homes was pulled in the last 12 months for the Miami metro. And you said “demand is off a tad, Florida is still the #1 place where folks are migrating” but again you ignore my point that every year demand goes down considerably in the fall and winter. But when you say demand is off a tad, is a tad when days on market in June 2022 37days, but for June 2023 62days? This for the Miami metro area as well you know since markets are so nuanced. As the whole state is 33 days for 2022 and 56 days in 2023 for days on the market as well.
@@kevothagod6144 Thanks again for your insights - I'm sure folks will gain good value here. Demand in Florida goes up in the fall and winter, and slows in summer. Perhaps we connect for coffee one day... Cheers!
@@johnmwieland lmao you are full of it. Now you know that is a lie. You must be a realtor and are trying to finesse a few sales in before the summer ends 😂😂
Family of four can rent for $900 less then a mortgage payment. And this happened because of combination of high prices and high interest rate. Did you forget what negative equity is? To buy a house the mortgage payment should be close to the rent payment. Also, we are one step to the layoffs, and AI keeps replacing jobs. Its a hard time for buying a house. Of course some people have government jobs, they feel safe, they can buy a house. Of course price can go up, but I can not accept such a high risk of buying now.
Respect your ideas. Like most things, real estate is cyclical. This cycle is long on the tooth so there should be a turn around to the downside. It will happen, but based on supply/demand it's hard to see that happening in the next 12 months. But... we will both find out.
You're welcome, Paul. (Nice last name) No real estate market crash in the windshield, you can see a bit in the rearview mirror if you look hard enough... 👍👊
Like stocks, a bull run will end. Real estate is a supply/demand market. With that, we may see this lasting longer than most think. But anything CAN happen...
These real estate agents are seriously concerned. Real estate market shifts take years not months. The shear number of them trying to now become RUclipsrs is a clear sign 😂. RUclips full of real estate "moon boys". Yes of course real estate has absolutely no intrinsic value. Buy now because it will only keep going up !
Good one! But, after 30 years in this business, I've seen more ups and downs than most folks. The savings & loan debacle of early 90's, The Orange County bankruptcy... goes on and on. You're right about cycles - most businesses and industries go through cycles. Residential real estate will go down... but not just yet. Stay tuned to my channel for more... 👍
Lol look at the back and forth we had under my comment. He just completely ignores facts and without even know I was like this guy has to be a realtor trying to get the last few deals in. And sure enough he’s a realtor 😂😂
The lack of inventory is a lack of liquidity. Interest rates are going to stay high. Once sellers become so distressed they are forced to sell that liquidity and inventory will skyrocket. The prices will have to fall enough to compensate for the cost of high interest rates.
You failed to mention the millions of air bnb houses that are not profitable anymore
I didn't include that as I didn't see that as a direct impact to housing. I could be wrong, but that's more for rentals, tourism etc. But the idea is one to consider for another video - thank you.
With interest rate this high people are FORCED to stay put . When the inverted yield curve pups back up then things will really break!!
It's a real estate "golden handfuff's" moment...
Just to point a few of the many flaws in this video. Demand is up because it is purchase season. Demand always goes up during the spring and summer no matter what, but demand is down if you compare spring and summer 22 to spring and summer 23 which is what you should be doing. How can you compare demand during the winter to the spring? As for supply please tell me what happens when ALL of the new construction set to be completed in the next 12-18 months hits the market? If demand has fallen year over year and supply increase during the busy months, what you think happens when the fall and winter come where there is even less demand and even more supply? Also I’m a mortgage professional who has been a loan officer, processor, and now post closing manager
Thx @kevothagod6144 - good inputs. I wouldn't say "flaws" as each market is different. Summer in South Florida is demand wanes due to the heat. So, not as many tourists/buyers this time of the year. Supply down here is down 22 of the last 24 weeks - by over 40%. So LOW supply. But, even tho demand is off a tad, Florida is still the #1 place where folks are migrating to - so demand is strong - even with 6.7x% rates. So... each market has it's nuances. And ultimately, we "will see" how it all plays out each day, each month etc... It's great to have various perspectives. Thank you!
@@johnmwieland this is why I say flawed. You make no mention of the new construction. How many permits are still pending and haven’t been completed yet down there? Over 18,000 residential permits for single and multi family homes was pulled in the last 12 months for the Miami metro. And you said “demand is off a tad, Florida is still the #1 place where folks are migrating” but again you ignore my point that every year demand goes down considerably in the fall and winter. But when you say demand is off a tad, is a tad when days on market in June 2022 37days, but for June 2023 62days? This for the Miami metro area as well you know since markets are so nuanced. As the whole state is 33 days for 2022 and 56 days in 2023 for days on the market as well.
@@kevothagod6144 Thanks again for your insights - I'm sure folks will gain good value here. Demand in Florida goes up in the fall and winter, and slows in summer. Perhaps we connect for coffee one day... Cheers!
@@johnmwieland lmao you are full of it. Now you know that is a lie. You must be a realtor and are trying to finesse a few sales in before the summer ends 😂😂
bla bla bla bla.
Lets check 6 month and 12 month later. Will see who was right.
Trust the science.
Family of four can rent for $900 less then a mortgage payment. And this happened because of combination of high prices and high interest rate.
Did you forget what negative equity is? To buy a house the mortgage payment should be close to the rent payment. Also, we are one step to the layoffs, and AI keeps replacing jobs. Its a hard time for buying a house.
Of course some people have government jobs, they feel safe, they can buy a house. Of course price can go up, but I can not accept such a high risk of buying now.
Respect your ideas. Like most things, real estate is cyclical. This cycle is long on the tooth so there should be a turn around to the downside. It will happen, but based on supply/demand it's hard to see that happening in the next 12 months. But... we will both find out.
That was loaded! Thanks for your time in doing the research. Paints a proper picture of the market as a whole.
You're welcome, Paul. (Nice last name) No real estate market crash in the windshield, you can see a bit in the rearview mirror if you look hard enough... 👍👊
Interest rates are NOT coming down. That 40 year run is over.
Great argument. When a trend is broken... It was a nice, long trend in the bond markets.
RE Market will absolutely crash, and if you buy anything now, you are we todd did...
Like stocks, a bull run will end. Real estate is a supply/demand market. With that, we may see this lasting longer than most think. But anything CAN happen...
Lol good luck
...to us all! 👊
These real estate agents are seriously concerned. Real estate market shifts take years not months. The shear number of them trying to now become RUclipsrs is a clear sign 😂. RUclips full of real estate "moon boys". Yes of course real estate has absolutely no intrinsic value. Buy now because it will only keep going up !
Good one! But, after 30 years in this business, I've seen more ups and downs than most folks. The savings & loan debacle of early 90's, The Orange County bankruptcy... goes on and on. You're right about cycles - most businesses and industries go through cycles. Residential real estate will go down... but not just yet. Stay tuned to my channel for more... 👍
Lol look at the back and forth we had under my comment. He just completely ignores facts and without even know I was like this guy has to be a realtor trying to get the last few deals in. And sure enough he’s a realtor 😂😂
Thanks for a great and informative video, John! Your information is very helpful!
That's my sole objective: to be objective and helpful. Thanks for your note @genebigs1749... happy I hit the target.
As long as unemployment stays low the economy will be somewhat stable. When the jobs start to get vaporized we will be in high trouble
Good points.👍
Nice, a bunch of crap that not a lotta people can afford.
That's about right in today's market. We need a LOT more inventory...
and who have money to buy. LOL!
ohhhhhh, LOTS of folks. Over 40% of Florida buyers have cash. About 1000 people per day are relocating to Florida. It's crazy... 👍
We will see in a few months