I only have 1 time I accused doom of cheating and it was a n2 win. We had 3 cov and one of them was a pm. He guessed 2 of the cov and the target pm revealed n1 (bodyguard) and while the guy claimed tp it was such a weird guess because he had a guy who out right claimed vet.
I got 2 wins as doom on n2, one of the coven was outted and was getting exed, random guessed the other 2, another game someone claimed rbd immune so I put them down as retri, Marshal revealed D2 and guessed a random coven, they thought I was cheating with the reti and coven guess LMAO
I love the major salt from Coven when someone wins n1 as doomsayer lmaoooo, they treat it as if the doomsayer just won the lottery when the chances of correctly guessing 3 coven is not even that low lmao
I was doing the math and was writing an explanation when I realized a flaw in my calculation. The number of coven alive increases the odds of guessing them. To guess them all with this accounted for would be (4/14)(3/13)(2/12)=24/2184. 1 in 91 or 1.1% chance in a full 4 coven game where no one leaves. Because 4 left and wasn't coven the odds are better still: (4/13)(3/12)(2/11)=24/1716. 1 in 71.5 or 1.4%. The numerator or top (top/bottom) represents the coven available to find, where the denominator or bottom represents the players available to guess.
If the rit ritted doom, it wouldn't have announced to everyone since rit would be correct (although it wont kill doom since doom gains invincible defense since he won. This invincible defense is just there to ensure that Doom leaves in victory since it would be left ambigious if doom dies on the night doom wins)
I hope all the people calling you cheater are watching this and come into the comments to try and continue saying you cheated. Literal 🤡 behavior randomly calling you a duo with someone.
people think that getting a N1 doom is nearly impossible, without realizing that the chance to guess 3 coven correctly is ~0.88%, sure it's low, but in hundreds of games it's bound to happen a few times Edit: as pointed out in replies, the chance is actually ~1.1%, this is what i get for not double checking my math (which is ironic considering i had an exam on statistic not too long ago)
@@eaglegosuperskarmor oh yeah, i kinda forgot that... i had to remove the player from the list of guess targets xD indeed that does bump it up to nearly 1.1%
Lol the rit clearly didnt guess u as doomsayer because it backfired. If they had got it right it wouldnt have backfired but you also would have survived anyway
I feel bad for 13 who is gonna get false reported and doesn't have evidence like you do. hopefully everything works out But yeah, that was one salty/toxic coven. like damn. Amazing luck, and guessing 4 wasn't coven because they DCd makes games like this possible.
By my calculations, and I certainly could be wrong with the math here, the probability of getting three coven in N1 is 1 in 91 or 1.01%. That actually is pretty high all things considered. And that's without taking into consideration getting reads on folks from Day 1 chat. Each person you can identify as unlikely to be coven greatly improves the odds. If you eliminate say two individuals to not be coven, the odds changes to 2%.
It's rare to see a doom guess three coven N1 since there's 14 people to choose from, and it's understandable as to why they thought you cheated. Not to mention that your username and 13's were both under anonymous, so they thought either you multiaccounted or were part of a duo. In the end, it was just really luck at guessing and unlucky for them that you guessed them.
It’s not rare at all, it’s just rare to see the doom win N1. The odds of it being successful is so much higher guessing 3 coven than any other guess combo as there’s four guaranteed coven & it doesn’t matter what the coven is, whereas with every other alignment there’s multiple choices you have to pick between.
@@stevencampbell348 It's still really hard to guess 3/4 coven on first night with a full lobby because you still have 14 people in total, no info to go off of and cl can blast your defense if you're unlucky n1, you can get controlled by witch or revealed by potion master before ritualist/conjurer snipes you. So it's still really rare to see a n1 with doomsayer since there's so many variables to think about.
@@Devilhand21nah its like 1.1% which means it happens half a dosen times a day with how many games there are, which really doesnt fit "rare" uncommon maybe but not rare
@@hannahorse16 1% is not rare? Do you hear yourself? It's a 1% chance of being able to do this on the first night without any known info. And you're assuming that it's done at least half a *dozen* times a day, where the probability constantly changes from day to day. Could happen 1 time in a day, could happen 6 times the next day, ect. However out of probably hundreds of games in a day or even possibly thousands of games that happen in the span of a week or hell in a month, the amount of times that a doomsayer wins on n1 by pure random chance is extremely low. That's why it is rare to see, and not uncommon as you say. This is also why people assume and report doomsayers when they won n1, because it is so rare to see and most people assume that the doomsayer cheated.
@@Devilhand21 "Rare" depends mostly on what kind of probabilities people are exposed to frequently, and to what the negative effect (if any) of that probability is. For example, someone who "shiny hunts" in pokemon may consider 1% chance in any context to be "uncommon", because they are frequently dealing with 0.025% odds. Meanwhile, D&D and XCom players may consider a 5% chance to miss "rare" because they are expecting an attack to hit, and those games can severely punish you when it doesn't - making it stand out more in their memory as "that thing which shouldn't have happened, happened".
4:08 "the odds are 1/10M" How? Even a guess shouldn't be that idiotic. Here's the actual chances of guessing 3 coven. For the first person, you can choose 14 players. Second person, you can choose 13 players, minus the one you chose before. Third person is 12 players, minus the two you chose before. So, doomsayer has 14*13*12 = 2184 possible guess orders. Now, the number of guess orders for 3 coven is 4*3*2 = 24. 24/2184 = 1.1% chance. Unlikely, but far from 1/10M impossible odds. Let me know if my math is wrong, but I'm pretty sure I'm more right than Ramlethal will ever be.
Disconnected player and a vet/tp whisper replying to your tp request, your odds were a lot better than usual too You knew 15 was prob town and if 4 was coven then that sucks but it's most likely a town/neutral with a poor role
Just did the math, its about a %1.1 chance of happening from complete guesses n1(assuming 4 coven and 15 total players including you), rare but not even close to impossible. It was bound to happen at some point.
That was a 1% chance cause the maths are: There are 4 coven 14 people other than you 1st person: 4/14 2nd person: 3/13 3rd person 2/12 4/14 = 0.28571428571 3/13 = 0.23076923076 2/12 = 0.16666666666 = 0.01098901098 Odds are 1.098901098% Also if you get d1 dcs then the odds increase
gotta love it when people call "cheats" when in reality it's luck/skill calling the other guy a cheater just makes you look salty, unless the cheating is obvious (depends on the game)
Yeah Doom only needs to guess faction with coven. If they just guessed random town roles correctly then I’d be sus but it’s a 1.1% chance to happen when guessing coven. It’s bound to happen.
Tbh I don't blame them for saying that you were cheating, I would've said the same thing. People get so heated when they're in a situation like that so I can't blame them🤷♂️
Funny thing is, it's only about a 1 in 300 or so chance that this happens. Edit: Even higher odds than that actually, because there are 4 coven to choose from, not just 3. (Something like 1 in 100, I believe.)
to be fair the chances you guess 3 coven correct night 1 are very low, especially since there can be 2 or 1 coven games, most people would probably accuse you of cheating
To be fair, if they’re unfamiliar with your channel, your death note kind of sounds like you were cheating. It makes it sound like you used some sort of “antics” to find them instead of getting lucky.
It’s not doom’s fault coven is easier to guess without info as it does not have to be a specific role; I would had gone for coven too with no info doom is a neutral role not coven support
People need to learn that the chances of a N1 Doom win are like 1 in 100 (4/14 * 3/13 * 2/12, thanks for the correction @johnathanrandom-games). It's rare, sure, but not impossible.
The odds go down as you hit Coven with your picks, because there are fewer Coven left in the pool of candidates (4/14) * (3/13) * (2/12). It comes out to 1.1%
It's not even cheating; it's just raw statistics, and it ALL works against Coven. I'd say the sheer number of ways Coven can get fucked over in TOS2 is why there are so many D1 Coven DC'ers; something you can reliably gamble on as Doomsayer to DRAMATICALLY improve your odds of a blind triple-tap Doomsayer on N1. Basically, if you're Coven right now, you're hoping for a god-roll of Ritualist + Potion Master to cover your N1 in Ranked Practice, and pray that nothing like this bullshit happens to you.
To be fair if they did ritualist you as doom and you did not win you would have died. However, because you won you gained invincible defense like Pirate, or a horseman like Death, which would make you immune to ritualist attack.
@@cyanideytcuriousseadoggo If rit guessed wrong they would be revealed to everyone, but I saw no message declaring that, so either the coven lied or rit guessed correct, but player was immune. But we on this side could not know if they did or not.
TOS2 players when they win: haha ez gg garbage skill issue TOS2 players when they lose: you cheater, you beat us by sheer skill/luck and we lost, you hack and cheat and i myself cant accept the fact you are better than me
Aww poor cl is salty that doom got lucky n1. Bro if you die n1, just leave the game and join a new one, it’s just a game, not that deep. If I ever see that same guy in a game, I’ll link them to this video so they can see how cringe it is to accuse someone wrongly.
• Watch me live: > www.twitch.tv/tubaantics
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people always think that the doom is cheating whenever they win N1. It's honestly hilarious
I only have 1 time I accused doom of cheating and it was a n2 win. We had 3 cov and one of them was a pm. He guessed 2 of the cov and the target pm revealed n1 (bodyguard) and while the guy claimed tp it was such a weird guess because he had a guy who out right claimed vet.
In modern ToS 2 yes that would be cheating
Man was going to get it wrong too until 4 dc’d
I got 2 wins as doom on n2, one of the coven was outted and was getting exed, random guessed the other 2, another game someone claimed rbd immune so I put them down as retri, Marshal revealed D2 and guessed a random coven, they thought I was cheating with the reti and coven guess LMAO
I love the major salt from Coven when someone wins n1 as doomsayer lmaoooo, they treat it as if the doomsayer just won the lottery when the chances of correctly guessing 3 coven is not even that low lmao
I think I've heard that it's like 2% but I haven't done the math myself
@@pikapowns It's 4/14 * 3/13 * 2/12 or about 1.1%
I was doing the math and was writing an explanation when I realized a flaw in my calculation. The number of coven alive increases the odds of guessing them. To guess them all with this accounted for would be (4/14)(3/13)(2/12)=24/2184. 1 in 91 or 1.1% chance in a full 4 coven game where no one leaves. Because 4 left and wasn't coven the odds are better still: (4/13)(3/12)(2/11)=24/1716. 1 in 71.5 or 1.4%. The numerator or top (top/bottom) represents the coven available to find, where the denominator or bottom represents the players available to guess.
Far easier than guessing individual town roles though
This is why i hate probability. Probability doesn't mean s©®t! Just because the *chances* of someone guessing correctly is 1 in a BILLION doesn't mean they won't guess correctly every single time. At the end of the day it's really just *you either are correct or wrong!!*
This should honestly be titled:
"Coven accuses me of cheating because I got lucky n1"
All of that salt the coven had just because of the N1 guess actually working😂😂😂
*doomsayer: Random luck of draw GO! oh wow I got it right The entire coven team: fuck you cheater!*
3:56 that guy lying about you being ritted as Doom is absolutely golden
If the rit ritted doom, it wouldn't have announced to everyone since rit would be correct (although it wont kill doom since doom gains invincible defense since he won. This invincible defense is just there to ensure that Doom leaves in victory since it would be left ambigious if doom dies on the night doom wins)
If 4 didn't dcd, this history would have been different
What's funny is that I got a N1 doom 5 days ago and posted it in the Tuba server and the man himself said it has yet to happen to him
I hope all the people calling you cheater are watching this and come into the comments to try and continue saying you cheated. Literal 🤡 behavior randomly calling you a duo with someone.
StewieDaKing is on my "Do not play with list" due to toxicity.
If you block people can you make it so you don't end up in a game with them? or are you stuck rejoining lobbies if/when you see them?
Medium IS in TOS 2: Any neutral who leaves town becomes a medium.
Lmao true
My headcannon is medium left town and lost loyalties and Neutrals who leave town visit them when they win in their new place outta town.
Big props for putting the usernames at the end so I know who to dodge out of pure stupidity
people think that getting a N1 doom is nearly impossible, without realizing that the chance to guess 3 coven correctly is ~0.88%, sure it's low, but in hundreds of games it's bound to happen a few times
Edit: as pointed out in replies, the chance is actually ~1.1%, this is what i get for not double checking my math (which is ironic considering i had an exam on statistic not too long ago)
Picking 3 coven in a confirmed 4 coven game is a bit over 1% with 1/91 odds
4C3/14C3
@@eaglegosuperskarmor oh yeah, i kinda forgot that... i had to remove the player from the list of guess targets xD indeed that does bump it up to nearly 1.1%
Winning n1 as doom is has better chances than finding a shiny pokemon, yet people still find shiny pokemon so ofcourse a n1 doom win is possible
Lol the rit clearly didnt guess u as doomsayer because it backfired. If they had got it right it wouldnt have backfired but you also would have survived anyway
They guessed 3 as vet. The coven said it in post game lobby
have you noticed that it's the people who use 2 or more accounts that claim people cheat using multiple accounts.
This is truly a ToS Moment.
Get lucky? CHEATER
The fact people get mad at dying to doom n1 like dude just go next 🗿
This might be fastest round in the game. Jeeeeeeeez
I feel bad for 13 who is gonna get false reported and doesn't have evidence like you do. hopefully everything works out
But yeah, that was one salty/toxic coven. like damn. Amazing luck, and guessing 4 wasn't coven because they DCd makes games like this possible.
He’ll be fine. Blankmedia is usually pretty decent about if reports are BS or not. Of course there’s always a chance but i wouldn’t worry.
I feel like 13 would more likely be reported for guessing as Rit N1 with no info
Doomsayer is the real tpow.
The fact that 13 ritted n1 and was wrong is hilarious.
We should thank the n1 DCing Trapper for this legendary video
The common N1 Doomsayer W
The way the rit got immediately punished LMAO
By my calculations, and I certainly could be wrong with the math here, the probability of getting three coven in N1 is 1 in 91 or 1.01%. That actually is pretty high all things considered. And that's without taking into consideration getting reads on folks from Day 1 chat. Each person you can identify as unlikely to be coven greatly improves the odds. If you eliminate say two individuals to not be coven, the odds changes to 2%.
While it is funny, I think doom needs the vigilante treatment where they cannot guess n1 as it is still too unfairly skewed against coven.
It's rare to see a doom guess three coven N1 since there's 14 people to choose from, and it's understandable as to why they thought you cheated. Not to mention that your username and 13's were both under anonymous, so they thought either you multiaccounted or were part of a duo. In the end, it was just really luck at guessing and unlucky for them that you guessed them.
It’s not rare at all, it’s just rare to see the doom win N1. The odds of it being successful is so much higher guessing 3 coven than any other guess combo as there’s four guaranteed coven & it doesn’t matter what the coven is, whereas with every other alignment there’s multiple choices you have to pick between.
@@stevencampbell348 It's still really hard to guess 3/4 coven on first night with a full lobby because you still have 14 people in total, no info to go off of and cl can blast your defense if you're unlucky n1, you can get controlled by witch or revealed by potion master before ritualist/conjurer snipes you. So it's still really rare to see a n1 with doomsayer since there's so many variables to think about.
@@Devilhand21nah its like 1.1% which means it happens half a dosen times a day with how many games there are, which really doesnt fit "rare" uncommon maybe but not rare
@@hannahorse16 1% is not rare? Do you hear yourself? It's a 1% chance of being able to do this on the first night without any known info. And you're assuming that it's done at least half a *dozen* times a day, where the probability constantly changes from day to day. Could happen 1 time in a day, could happen 6 times the next day, ect. However out of probably hundreds of games in a day or even possibly thousands of games that happen in the span of a week or hell in a month, the amount of times that a doomsayer wins on n1 by pure random chance is extremely low. That's why it is rare to see, and not uncommon as you say. This is also why people assume and report doomsayers when they won n1, because it is so rare to see and most people assume that the doomsayer cheated.
@@Devilhand21 "Rare" depends mostly on what kind of probabilities people are exposed to frequently, and to what the negative effect (if any) of that probability is.
For example, someone who "shiny hunts" in pokemon may consider 1% chance in any context to be "uncommon", because they are frequently dealing with 0.025% odds.
Meanwhile, D&D and XCom players may consider a 5% chance to miss "rare" because they are expecting an attack to hit, and those games can severely punish you when it doesn't - making it stand out more in their memory as "that thing which shouldn't have happened, happened".
ToS2 players whenever someone gets lucky:
4:08 "the odds are 1/10M" How? Even a guess shouldn't be that idiotic. Here's the actual chances of guessing 3 coven. For the first person, you can choose 14 players. Second person, you can choose 13 players, minus the one you chose before. Third person is 12 players, minus the two you chose before. So, doomsayer has 14*13*12 = 2184 possible guess orders. Now, the number of guess orders for 3 coven is 4*3*2 = 24. 24/2184 = 1.1% chance. Unlikely, but far from 1/10M impossible odds. Let me know if my math is wrong, but I'm pretty sure I'm more right than Ramlethal will ever be.
i swear whoever replies this comment with nerd emoji i will kick yo ass all the way to neptune
@@Ace-hu2rfFirst person to reply with nerd emoji is Ramlethal
That’s not luck, that’s pure skill.
if they actually rit'd you as doom then they would have not "guessed wrong" but you would still live since you won.
Correct me if I’m wrong but legitimately every doom does that n1, one of those dooms HAS to hit it.
its a 1.1% chance lol
salty coven :P
Disconnected player and a vet/tp whisper replying to your tp request, your odds were a lot better than usual too
You knew 15 was prob town and if 4 was coven then that sucks but it's most likely a town/neutral with a poor role
ah yes, a doom that wins n1 is definitely cheating (real)
Bro the game ending by d2 is CRAZY
That change from number 4 to 13 must be so lucky because 1st night would've been wrong.
And the best part is - it’s almost never cheating! Sometimes it’s using context clues from d1 chat and sometimes it’s just luck
4:06 actually if the rit guessed doom as the role the game wouldn’t have outted them for guessing wrong
congratz for the win on D2 Achievement. :)
Just did the math, its about a %1.1 chance of happening from complete guesses n1(assuming 4 coven and 15 total players including you), rare but not even close to impossible. It was bound to happen at some point.
title reminds me of those old shadow beatz vids lol
You got it on cams
That was a 1% chance
cause the maths are:
There are 4 coven
14 people other than you
1st person: 4/14
2nd person: 3/13
3rd person 2/12
4/14 = 0.28571428571
3/13 = 0.23076923076
2/12 = 0.16666666666
= 0.01098901098
Odds are 1.098901098%
Also if you get d1 dcs then the odds increase
I got this once in AA and the same thing happened: “cheating with a coven”
These guys are being sore losers. Another reason I don't play on public lobbies 💀
gotta love it when people call "cheats" when in reality it's luck/skill
calling the other guy a cheater just makes you look salty, unless the cheating is obvious (depends on the game)
Yeah Doom only needs to guess faction with coven. If they just guessed random town roles correctly then I’d be sus but it’s a 1.1% chance to happen when guessing coven. It’s bound to happen.
ironically doomsayer can still do this they changed it so you can’t do it night one but you can literally still do this
And the coven is dead!
6 = trolling 11. 11 = salt!
4*3*2/13/12/11 * 100 gets you about a 1.4% chance of ds winning, with that one guy dcing. Gotta wonder what the rit guessed tho
3 was guessed as veteran
sounds like a "mad cause bad" situation to me lol
Tbh I don't blame them for saying that you were cheating, I would've said the same thing. People get so heated when they're in a situation like that so I can't blame them🤷♂️
funny enough doomsayer can still do this it can’t do it night one but it can still easily kill off basically the majority of evils
Doomsayer: guess role all correct night 1 👍
Funny thing is, it's only about a 1 in 300 or so chance that this happens.
Edit: Even higher odds than that actually, because there are 4 coven to choose from, not just 3. (Something like 1 in 100, I believe.)
I also won one time as Doomsayer d2 by guessing the coven and they assume your hacking, its ridicilous
Actually tragic this wasn't a full viewer lobby. The reactions would have been fantastic
This is the sign you should play sweepstakes
to be fair the chances you guess 3 coven correct night 1 are very low, especially since there can be 2 or 1 coven games, most people would probably accuse you of cheating
you know 4/14*3/13*2/12 *100 =~ 1%, its not even that unlikely for doom to get ir right N1
Tuba you filthy cheater!!! (real)
GG
To be fair, if they’re unfamiliar with your channel, your death note kind of sounds like you were cheating. It makes it sound like you used some sort of “antics” to find them instead of getting lucky.
I wanna see their faces after they knew u were the doom
That poor mudkip
they’re so mad u lucky 😂😂
It’s not doom’s fault coven is easier to guess without info as it does not have to be a specific role; I would had gone for coven too with no info doom is a neutral role not coven support
Also that got to be the fastest and extremely rarest match ever. A day 2 Townies win. 💀
THIS IS FUCKING PRICELESS LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
People need to learn that the chances of a N1 Doom win are like 1 in 100 (4/14 * 3/13 * 2/12, thanks for the correction @johnathanrandom-games). It's rare, sure, but not impossible.
The odds go down as you hit Coven with your picks, because there are fewer Coven left in the pool of candidates (4/14) * (3/13) * (2/12). It comes out to 1.1%
@@jonathanrandom-games thanks, I slipped up on that. still, 1 out of 100 doom games is far from impossible.
Doomsayer best TPow.
It's not even cheating; it's just raw statistics, and it ALL works against Coven.
I'd say the sheer number of ways Coven can get fucked over in TOS2 is why there are so many D1 Coven DC'ers; something you can reliably gamble on as Doomsayer to DRAMATICALLY improve your odds of a blind triple-tap Doomsayer on N1.
Basically, if you're Coven right now, you're hoping for a god-roll of Ritualist + Potion Master to cover your N1 in Ranked Practice, and pray that nothing like this bullshit happens to you.
To be fair if they did ritualist you as doom and you did not win you would have died. However, because you won you gained invincible defense like Pirate, or a horseman like Death, which would make you immune to ritualist attack.
If Rit Guessed Them as Doom they would get a message of being immune to the ritualist.
This means Rit straight up guessed wrong
@@cyanideytcuriousseadoggo If rit guessed wrong they would be revealed to everyone, but I saw no message declaring that, so either the coven lied or rit guessed correct, but player was immune. But we on this side could not know if they did or not.
@@hidereowo2576The "spell backfired" message *is* the declaration.
@@ArrQueRayray No, it is the failure of guessing the target's role.
@@hidereowo2576 that message shows who it rit is and everyone sees it
Bout time you got a n1 doom win
Guys I think the town aligned doom is real
Mans lowkey destroyed coven xD lmaoooo
second time i've seen you doom n1 ....... LMFAO
What a fast vidio 😂😂
I mean you have video proof you shoulda just said that because they were salty and wouldn't have listened
doom = green rit
Actually, the chances are pretty close to 1%. So one game in 100.
Thank you tubald for “CHEATING” as the DOOMSAYER role…
?coven
❤
TOS2 players when they win: haha ez gg garbage skill issue
TOS2 players when they lose: you cheater, you beat us by sheer skill/luck and we lost, you hack and cheat and i myself cant accept the fact you are better than me
ah no wonder they nerfed doom to only be usable night 2
I bet they felt stupid after seeing this vid lmao
Wassup tuba
Bro guessed all coven night 1 lolll
They way people said your cheater ain't no eay😂
Well, there are 99% chance that you are cheating and 1% chance you got lucky. Too high to pass up the report button.
“Benefit of the doubt” moment
It's was so funny. I mean hey that is pure luck. They should go at the devs, not others. LMAO.
Lol
Aww poor cl is salty that doom got lucky n1. Bro if you die n1, just leave the game and join a new one, it’s just a game, not that deep. If I ever see that same guy in a game, I’ll link them to this video so they can see how cringe it is to accuse someone wrongly.
That was le-gend, i hope youre not lactose intolerant cause the last word is, dairy.
Hahahahaahahahahah
Oof, you and 13 both being anonymous does not help
Tuna has to cheat and he's still bad at the game. Ggwp
Ritualist (Anonymous) hmmmmmnnnn….
In all seriousness that’s funny and it only happened because 4 dc’d