Can China learn lessons from Japan’s ‘lost 30 years’?
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- Опубликовано: 20 сен 2024
- More on China's economy: sc.mp/6qnt
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China and Japan have ended up on very similar economic trajectories, since both countries emerged from relative obscurity to become major powerhouses through aggressive reforms and investments. In the process, the nations each have accumulated huge amounts of debt and asset bubbles. In the 1990s, the situation became unsustainable in Japan and the nation entered a period known as the “lost 30 years” characterised by economic stagnation, weak consumer demand and lower birth rate. China, after experiencing four decades of rapid economic growth since its reform and opening up, has recently started to show symptoms similar to what was seen in Japan. China’s economic woes, including a high level of debt, an underperforming housing market and a rapidly ageing society, have many economists asking whether China is about to become “another Japan”?
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More on China's economy: sc.mp/6qnt
チヤイナニズだからｗ 無理無理 保証する その心に憎しみしかないのなら
お前らフリーマーケットではないだろう！が！
the West paved the way of China's economic success, not the other way around. The West made China rich through FORCED technology transfer and then buying those goods. 80% of China's customers are from the West. China will never develop its private economy. No one wants to spend money on unessential because of their traumatic experience in 1960 The Great Famine.
Totally disagree.
China is not even considered a rich country. China is gearing towards a planned economy which never works . China,s economy is reliant on the West. 80% of China's customers are from the West.
China's stock market already popped in 2007 , it has dropped in half ever since .
The real estate has also popped, and this will drag everything down .
Between $150-300 monthly wage across China. (2016)
~
Vietnam is better off than China. Deep poverty, defined as the percentage of the population living on less than $1 per day, has declined significantly in Vietnam and the relative poverty rate is now less than that of China, India and the Philippines .
source: Vietnam Business Guide: Getting Started in Tomorrow's Market Today (2011)
Western Pundits & american SLAVEs experts have been
analysing & predicting PRC CHINA Economy downfall since 1990.
And yet, PRC CHN Economy has surpassed the US and PRC GDP is 20%
bigger than the american LOOTING & PONDERING empire GDP.
Ponder this fact above.
Of course, a lesson the global should learn "Dont listen to anythng the US said"
Ofc China can learn lessons from Japan's stagnation. Main lesson is don't be Washington's vassal. Don't sign the Plaza accord. Be independent. That's what China can learn
First lesson from Japan is not to be colony of the US.
All land in China is owned by the state. A real estate bubble is unlikely to happen, like what Evergrane attempted recently, as if China would bail them out of debt.😂
Another one is stand up for yourself. Don't let them bully you. Duplicitious people say one thing, but do another . Hope for the best, be prepared for the worst.
Great to come across a person who knows the truth.
チヤイナニズだからｗ 無理無理 保証する その心に憎しみしかないのなら
お前らフリーマーケットではないだろう！が！
One thing that China learns from Japan is to never sign an agreement similar to the Plaza Accords.
It's not relevant, China will lose market access whatever the monetary policy.
They don't need that, they are able to self destroy by themselves!
@@AdlerMow Is that you, Gordon Chang?
@@AdlerMowChina won't self destroy itself. China is run by the most edcuated government officials on the planet, unlike Japan and the USA
China isn't and will never be America's colony, so never gonna happen.
The biggest lesson China taken from Japan is that: never succumb to trade and technology sanctions from the US. You should be yourself or nothing. This is the lesson from Japan.
Are you talking about the 1985 Plaza Accords?
more like dont trust America in "helping" you.
yeah,Otherwise, Huawei will become the next Toshiba.
The biggest difference from Japan is that China is not militarily occupied by a dominant foreign power.
I believe Japan has no choice back then. The only choice they have is to surrender and try to negotiate the best possible way out of it.
The big difference is unlike Japan, China didn't have to dance to US' tunes.
in the 1980s every American/British pop song had some form of Japanese tech. I don't think the same could be said about the 2000s-2020s
@@gtripmusic2906try to learn Plaza accord 😂
In the 80s the US also accused Japan of espionage, stealing tech, unfair competition. Also remember toshiba and panasonic being restricted due to national security concerns. So China might be able to learn from the mistakes of Japan by looking at what the US did back then
India is learning what USA did to Japan and China too.
Chinese Americans also suffered because of the racism. You know, they all look the same. Read about Vincent Chin.
As a Japanese my self I can confirm that the US suddenly becomes a bully when their loosing at their own game and X country comes close to 80% of US GDP.
I think China saw this from a mile away but still couldn't avoid the decline we see today.
It's hard to control over confidence and Ego in your own people, especially in a one party state like China.
Japan couldn't control it with 120mil of its population. Imagion trying to control 1.3billion.
The United States will do whatever it can to remain leaders.. they will sanction, and destroy other countries in order to remain leaders.
This is why I hope china solves their economic problems and continue challenging the US... If china doesn't, the US will always have monopoly on the whole world...
The US will always control and manipulate the world...
And the US wasn’t wrong…
"Is China the next Japan?" That question is almost as ridiculous as asking, "Is India the next China?"🤭
Bro creating his own happiness
India is the next superpooper
@@svanimation8969 India can never be the next China. because the people of india are rude they do not have any technology. They are very poor and hunger for visas and food and their gov only fools people by telling them that india is next to China.
日本37万平方公里，我们这边三个省也是35万平方公里，我们gdp日本高，日本那个破地方早就落后了，就你们这些外国贫民窟的五毛穷人天天给西方人宣传奇怪的中国
India is a cesspool!
Lesson learned from Japan: never listen to USA.
Lesson if you traded with the US, make it fair to US standards. China traded with the US , will bite that hand and backstab the US, and that is a nono
China isn't a USA colony
That's the biggest step towards Chinese progress
Don’t forget that China is a colony of CCP.
Biggest difference between JP and CN is CN is not US lapdog and CN won't sign Plaza Accord.
i don't know how china will end up, but certain it won't be the same with japan.
simple reason, china can say no to usa, while japan cannot
Very true... Japan is just a little pup_lap dog wagging it's tail and bowing to it's US master, pulling at its leash to obey whatever its master orders...
Can say no to US and still export as much as they want? lol... Japan could have say no all they want, they would just have suffered more economically from losing market access. Try to find other countries who accept to run a long term trade deficit with you.
@@mathieug6136China is building infrastructure for countries around fhe world and is the most advanced in AI. The USA will get destroyed by China , unlike Japan
@@mathieug6136 USA can punish Japan all they want, but they can’t punish China without hurting themselves. USA needs China like China needs USA
@@johnnyissuper6955 why?
History repeats itself all the time, but China is not Japan, which does not have leverage.
China would be worst than japan..The problem of china is the one child policy....only creating generation of spoiled kid with no empathy....because of their own ego ..they hardly making family with marriage ...and these generation also have less suport of family because they are in their own...no other sibling....its harder to bost domestic consumption if this generation still exist ...they only care about themselves
yes👍China is poor 👍japan is rich❤️
Man can't elaborate
@@shuttlespace04 the biggest difference between China and Japan is that China has soverenty while Japan has not, China follows its own will while Japan has to follows American's will. By the way, though China is not as rich as Japan, it is not a poor country any more.
There is one essential difference between China and Japan, one is a sovereign country, the other is not. Hence the results will be radically different.
One thing they have to address though is their population imbalance, they have too many 20-30 yrs old choosing not to have kids.. this will be a problem later on..unless they open up to immigrants or develop robots to fill in the workforce.. or else they will end up like Japan
@@OhTaco77 It is not a problem that will develop later, it is already a problem. Immigration will not be an option just like all other confucian east asian nation who values social harmony and cohesion above all else. Robot and more automation is the answer in the short and medium term. For the long term, there won't even be automation if there are no people. There is one other solution: a cultural revolution that will overthrow the current capitalist model where there is essentially no benefit for having children for the average people. Human need to undergo cultural revolution to end this demographic curse if we want to survive as a species.
@@turtlesoup8134 yea, bring on the Cultural Revolution!! (uh wait, wasn't that tried before?...)
seriously what are you proposing here? More automation? The current capitalist model caused the one-child policy? Let's study Confucianism and Xi thought?
@@OhTaco77 Any advanced, well educated, urbanized country will have population problems except for US, which relies on immigrants. If population is the only determining factor, then all countries (except US) will fail.
@@OhTaco77 Thats true.
China is the country that can best learn from past experiences.
The current so-called property crisis in China is China's way of avoiding a prolonged property / economy bubble crisis like the one that occurred in Japan.
1:38: 📈 Japan's bubble economy in the 1990s and China's current economic growth show similarities.
3:39: 📈 The Plaza Hotel trade summit in 1986 triggered a rise in the value of the Yen and led to a buying frenzy in Japan's economy.
7:11: 📈 China's economic growth and response to crises compared to Japan's post-bubble struggles.
10:03: 📉 China's economy is facing challenges, including a real estate bubble and high debt, raising concerns of a Japan-style recession.
14:26: 🌍 Africa has great development potential in engineering and science, but also needs a strong private sector and institutions to thrive.
Recap by Tammy AI
dump ai😂
The big difference is the culture...
It all depends on if China will repeat the mistake of kowtowing to the US regarding economic relations. Japan had no choice as a country with national security firmly in the hands of the Americans. China will probably instead fight the economic war till the last breath.
@@typicalKAMBlover21
US economic coercion against China failed since the trade war began. It's becoming clear the US has exhausted much of its options to sanction China.
Whereas China is beginning to show its resilience and defiance against US economic and military coercion.
14:01 Western Economic are less optimistic about China’s Growth Potential
Japan has always been an American colony after WWII, that's why how high Japan can get is predetermined. China is totally different from that perspective.
Soooo true. Never depend on the Anglos Saxon countries which never really care about you , but only take you as a tool to achieve their own goals on cost of interest of your country. As Henry Kissinger put it, "To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal"
@@wyz9815Lol, tell me you’re a wumao without telling me you’re wumao, only a wumao would use “Anglo-Saxon” term, literally nobody else ever uses this in their conversation.
@@HoangTran-wu6se "only a wumao would use “Anglo-Saxon” term, literally nobody else ever uses this in their conversation"
...the f**k is this nonsense?
You have no rebuttal to his assertion. The way the US has continually thrown its allies under the bus in order to achieve and preserve its global hegemony is well documented. We are currently witnessing the impoverishment of Europe in order to decouple Russia from Europe.
@@HoangTran-wu6se You look like you need a “Saigon Iron Fist” right on your face. Like it or not ,Anglos don’t see us Asians as their equals.
@@HoangTran-wu6seangloid you mean they already respect your kind enough to refer to you people as humans
Toyota and Honda was dominating the Auto market in USA and Europe. Poor Japan has to sign the Plaza Accord which leads to the economic bubble in 1986.
The bubble was already in place long before the plaza accord. Their development model based on high investment and high export was just not sustainable. The particular event that appears to pop is not important. If it was not the plaza accord, it would have been some other apparent event. In the same fashion, you could later blame Evergrande bankrupty as the cause of the Chinese crisis, but it's not, it's the whole development model.
Too many differences, when it started, Japan already a developed country in term of GDP per capita, China now is still a developing country, so many rooms still available for China.
China also has a different level of talent pool, just look at the semiconductor ban, the last resort of US sanctions, it did not do much to China growth and now that China already been able to overcome a big part of the sanctions, it could contrarily become China new source of growth.
Most importantly, China will never blindly follow US order like Japan did. Agreement like Plaza Accord or any other agreement that may jeopardize China, will never happen.
Chinese leaders have been saying it since the beginning of opening up and reform: they don't want to get old before they get rich. And while they've been getting much richer, they've been getting older faster.
I believe that’s you who are blind.
Different level of talent pool..... the shrinking working population?
@@Andy-PYou realise India is also about to have a shrinking population. Only starving african countries still increasing population
@@Andy-P yet still 10 times more than that of Japan's
One thing that China learns from Japan is to never give up technology patents to the United States. I cannot fathom on why the Japanese sold their technological knowhow to the United States.
And it's equally puzzling why the west sold their technological knowhow to China.
name a technology patents that the US want to get from China😂
Lol, what patent can China give the US, everything involved high end technology, China is at least 5 years behind, especially the chip.😂
@@HoangTran-wu6se You seem clueless. 6G/ AI/ Quantum Computing, the US is way behind now. They're now the ones caught trying to spy on Chinese Universities😂.
@@HoangTran-wu6selmao china already got 5 nano metres waffers produced 4 days ago
“… is the world factory”
“Everything made in…”
“ … experience real estates boom”
“… has the most miraculous economy growth in recent decades”
You can literally put both of them in these sentences.
.....succumbed to US hegemony and coercion....
Can you put China in this sentence?
@@1Query1 yes, yes you can, does the chip ban ring any bell?
@@HoangTran-wu6se Does Huawei Mate 6 Pro ring any bell?
@@HoangTran-wu6se Does rare earth ban ring any bell?
@@1Query1 Oh yeah, the "revolutionary" phone, which Huawei discourage people from disassembling it to prevent people from figuring out whether it's authentic or not.🤣
Their are similarities, but significant differences making China's economy far less vulnerable than Japan's. First China is not a US colony unlike Japan, is a nuclear power and has a very significant military making it difficult to intimidate unlike Japan. Second China has capital controls making it far less vulnerable to sanctions and financial warfare by the US, rather like Russia.
The irony is that the collapse in US manufacturing exports were a entirely self inflected problem, with Japan being used as a scapegoat. This dates to the US abusing the post war Bretton Woods agreement that pegged the dollar at $35 an Oz of gold, with other currencies pegged to the $. This overvalued the $ making US exports less competitive, with US debt growing due to military spending on the cold war and the Vietnam war, other countries no longer belived the US has the gold to redeem $ at 35$ an Oz, forcing Nixon off the gold standard in 71. This caused (with the oil crisis) an inflationary bubble as people sold $ as it lost value. Paul Vlocker under Carter then Reagen chairman of the Fed massively increased interest rates to control inflation, but at the cost of destroying US manufacturing, as investment in US manufacturing became non profitable with high interest rates and collapsing domestic demand. It was this that led to the petrodollar, with a massive US trade deficit being finacied by international borrowing, as described in Michael Hudsons brilliant book 'superimperialism'. The best description of Japan's lost decades is Robert Bremners book, 'From the boom to the bubble' www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/233518/the-boom-and-the-bubble-by-robert-brenner/
Well said!
"Japan is a US colony"
Lol😂
you don't see that the problem comes from within China and not from a foreign country.
As a Japanese I see that China not being under US influence gives China a great advantage over US sanctions BUT it does stir a much bigger problem like that of the property prices collapse we see in China today.
Over confidence and Ego plays a big roll in this, just like how Japan fell for the same trap 30 years ago.
Don't forget.China's economic model is based off the Japanese economic miracle and therefore it contains similar problems that Japan faced for all these years.
That's the story of America. Blaming others for its own mistakes, shortcomings and disasters.
Japan ,@@yolo-yu3vp did not have a huge domestic market.......and Japan worshiped the yanks
The case of China is 99.99 % different from the one of Japan. China has no problem at least next 30 years until GDP per person will reach about $ 80,000.
Humans are happiest when each person earns between $15,000 and $20,000 (2000 AD).
China ain’t Japan;
1. Japan’s policies isn’t independent( Plaza accord)
2. China has a gargantuan local market to self sustain, Japan doesn’t.
3. China has economic of scale advantage to compete globally, again Japan doesn’t.
There’s more factors I can keep on going, but above 3 should illustrate why the 2 countries ain’t the same thing.
@user-kw4dr8gd2t Truth hurt your fake freedom, hypocrite, cry harder, cry a bath tub full!!!
4. All land in China is owned by the government. Not ruled by supply and demand.
Three driving forces of Chinese economy: investment, export, domestic comsumption
corruption is the most important force to drive chinese economy
No. Domestic consumption is way, way below where it should be, and is still falling. If you mean by "investment" building all kinds of mega-projects with no payoff and hundreds of millions of tofu dregs apartments in which no one lives, then yes... "investment"...
I would say foreign investment (which has been shrinking since the trade war and Covid), infrastructure spending (but they've already built everything they need), housing (a bubble that's popping), and exports (but a lot of countries buying their stuff have become protectionist, have a declining population size, or are going into recession).
@@jeffreykalb9752 The diff is offset by real estate investments, their spending habits are different.
All that is under the umbrella of centralized planning, which isn't always the most efficient way to approach the evonomy
Japan is basically occupied by US, had no choice but to sign the Plaza Accord and saw their economy crash. China is not an american colony and has a huge domestic market to sustain company like Huawei. China is not the same as Japan.
Japan is a defeated country firmly controlled by the US. China is an big independent country not controlled by the US. The situations in these two countries are completely different and there is no comparison. What China needs to do is, as Deng Xiaoping said, development is the answer to all problems. At the end of every economic cycle, many people pessimize the Chinese economy, claiming that they have lost the motivation to continue. But in a longer timeline, these are not worth mentioning. Because as long as 1.4 billion people still hope for a better life, then this country will continue to move forward.
Chinas economy is based on industrialization and the USSR was too. That’s an unstable economy policy and China will have its own 1991.
Japan is a free democratic country.
@@Andy-P For example, the biggest war criminal of World War II is still there, the Emperor of Japan? A liberal democracy that cannot even realize the most basic human fairness and justice? This is a real world, kid.
@@juanrossi731 Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, your statement has been repeated by the West every few years. Guess how many times it has been? They collect a lot of evidence for this conclusion but never tell you anything else. Through a narrow gap, you can only see what you see, so you are convinced of the conclusion. But this conclusion has been falsified every time in the past thirty years. Of course, you can pray that this time it's true.
@@GGY-yh6li Your judgement on the ex-Emperor of Japan maybe true - Japan is still a democracy, universal sufferage with regular elections. China has made Japan do something America couldn't - take her own defence seriously
Japan lost their economy due to Plaza Accord.
But what can Japanese do? They cannot say no...
@mujur pretty much the US should not interfere international interest of world economy and also Japan affair of there free trade. Now look what happen today; low birth rate, currency is weak, high suicide rate and no one don't want to get married
The problem of china is the one child policy....only creating generation of spoiled kid with no empathy....because of their own ego ..they hardly making family with marriage ...and these generation also have less suport of family because they are in their own...no other sibling....its harder to bost domestic consumption if this generation still exist ...they only care about themselves
@@uou_knightplaysoldchannel1557 Now China is also going through these issues, include the low birth rate, high suicide rate, and low marriage rate, maybe it is worse than the past Japan.
Japan has 5 trillion economy with 1/30 china land mass,120 million people compare to china 1400 million💩🤮
@@pipiqiqi4010if China is in bad shape .. means US and its allies are tripling in bad shapes
China is not the past Japan and India is not the past China ❤
If you do what the US tells you to do like Japan did decades ago, then you may be in for many lost decades. You have to consider your own interests in the short, medium and long term in the equation. You must try to see the motives behind the US's demands. Certainly the US will not work for your interests.
Wait, so it was the US's fault that RE prices skyrocketed in Japan?
The US is also able to act in its own interest. Japan was able to export competitively because it was using a free-floating US Dollar as a medium of exchange, against a tightly controlled Japanese Yen. The Plaza Accord was the carrot; kicking Japan off the US Dollar was the stick. This was less of America punishing a competitor, and more Japan closing a loophole.
@@HKim0072Yes, the USA forced Japan to sign the plaza accord and the USA was in the trade war with Japan, boycotting everything Japanese and sanctioning Japan. However, this tactic doesn't work with China. China has defeated the USA
The US had nothing to do with policy decisions by the Japanese Central Bank including its lackluster increase in the money supply after the stock and real estate bubbles burst as well as the Japanese culture of saving face which inhibited decisive action regarding the banks which had made so many bad loans.
@@HKim0072 At least partially. RE issue is an action by China in response of US sanction on high trades.
What happen to Japan economy today, Japan can't blame anyone else but it self because Japan was dumb to be used by the west in the past, for example: the Toshiba case, the yen exchange currencies rate.
チヤイナニズだからｗ 無理無理 保証する その心に憎しみしかないのなら
お前らフリーマーケットではないだろう！が！
They had no choice.
All the comments on the signing of the Plaza Accords being one of the, if not THE, downfall of Japan--remember why the Plaza Accords happened: Japan was gaming the system by fixing its exchange rate in the first place. And remember, even if the Plaza Accords didn't happen the US could (and actually did for some sectors) implement sky-high tariffs on various Japanese imports. We've already done that with a few Chinese imports over the years.
所以你们才通货膨胀啊😂
@@yiouming9146deflation is far worse than inflation 😂
In the 80s Amurika was still at her peak.....today the US is on the wane .......a toothless tiger......also China now has a huge domestic market with spending power.....stop all imports except the most essential stuff and China will keep a very sustainable economic growth....the immediate threat is the property woes.... it has to be dealt with decisively.
Switching to a consumption driven economy would demand incredibly difficult political reforms and it is ideologically opposed by the higher ups. Basically, entreprises and governements would need to be starved of money that would be transferred to households. If you stop all imports, beside the obvious problem that China imports a huge chunk of its energy and food needs, exports will also shrinks and it is the core of the economy. Now you have huge overproduction capacity that you got deep into debt to acquire and it will never be profitable, and you add this to the fact that you're already in a debt crisis. No governement would survive this. The property woes is about deciding who will take the losses, it has not be decided yet, most likely the only solution will be to stretch the bad debt over several years, hence the Japan style stagnation.
Both China and Japan have been greatly influenced by Confucius's Teachings for centuries but their political systems of government now are entirely different. Japan adopts Western Capitalism whereas China adopts Socialism with Chinese characteristics. SCMP views China through the UK's eyes
Interesting. Please expand on "socialism" aspects.
Do Chinese citizens get free college? Is there universal healthcare?
@@HKim0072you are misusing the term socialism, it’s not about free services.
Socialism: Socialism is, broadly speaking, a political and economic system in which property and the means of production are owned in common, typically controlled by the state or government. Socialism is based on the idea that common or public ownership of resources and means of production leads to a more equal society.
It’s about “equality”.
Japan's economy bubble collapse happened 4 years after they signed plaza accord The appreciation of ¥ then their electronics and car export collapse,,, bear in mind Japan is an occupied nation
SCMP is part of the MSM driven by Western interests.
@@Jamal-um9xb They gladly pay for this ''occupation'', as many other country. Then even recently added a tip, to make sure the special relationship goes on. Keeping privileged access to the american market will be critical for Japan in the next decades, something few country will enjoy.
The plaza accord also included european countries and they didn't collapse the way Japan did. It's just the fast growth / high investment driven model that always ends up this way. The big problem is that when the debt burden gets heavy and the return on investment gets much lower than the cost of servicing debt, it becomes almost impossible to do the required political reform to move away from this investment growth model to a consumption driven economy, so the country just keeps on going until a major crisis or a long stagnation.
Its the US bullying of Japan in the 1980, china will learn from these historical past. But the Japanese had forgotten.
Western economists most of them have not travelled to China! What do they know???
This is what india,indonesia,vietnam have to learn so we can not be japan bubble disaster
China's biggest problem is not the excessive number of housing units or the poverty of its people. It is actually due to the long period of rapid economic growth that China has experienced, causing its people to become accustomed to this fast pace of growth. Once the growth rate slows down, coupled with the suppression from the United States and its allies, the market easily generates a large amount of pessimism, leading to a reluctance to consume and invest. The halt in consumption and investment will further trigger more pessimism, creating a vicious cycle. This is the fundamental reason behind China's issues with consumption, stock market, and real estate.
Don’t be fooled by service and spending. China should focus on high end manufacturing.
China has the most independent military, political, intelligence, economy, industry, finance, technology, media, and Internet in the world,
China is a Soviet-style centralized polity+Japanese-style exporting economy, it's communism+capitalism=Chinese socialism combination,
China has 5 times more population than Soviet, or 10 times more population than Japan, China even got more industrial output than G7 combined,
even when China was poorer than all African countries before 1980s, more backwards than India in 1960s, it's not easy to win any war against China,
like USA tried to contain China in Korean War and Vietnam War but failed, then Nixon visited Mao for friendship in 1972,
Soviet also tried to encircle China in Soviet-Afghan War and Third Indochina War also failed, Gorbachev visited Deng for friendship in 1989,
so can USA learn from Saigon moment or Kabul moment in upcoming Cold War 2.0?
You are a very evil person.
@user-kw4dr8gd2t Wumao is better you, a hypocrite that championed the fake freedom of the west.
Independent or isolated? China, a country with a culture of 5000 years old has been hijacked by the CCP, and the CCP are nothing more than wealth and power obsessed elites that just don’t want to play nicely with others. The Chinese government has the energy of a very rich and annoying teenager that is frustrated because not everyone is worshiping him.
@user-kw4dr8gd2t It's not independent if you're an export based economy that import most of its energy and food in a world where global shipping is secured by the US navy.
Yes, sovereignty is the fundamental of a country, or you'll be chocked at any time by the rope holder.
now the whole system of world economy is quite different from 1960's.
If Japan had not surrendered to the United States in the chip wars of the 1980s, there would actually have been no lost 30 years.
In the same way, if China cannot bear the chip war this time and surrenders to the United States, China will also enter a lost 30 years.
But it seems that China's resistance is very fierce.
Not necessarily true--in the 80's, the threat wasn't chip technology but rather economics: that Japan was dumping chips onto the US, subsidized by the industry and govt in order to grab market share and squeeze out American companies. This time around with China, its politics pure and simple--with China's history of stealing sensitive tech and its preponderance to copy existing tech who wouldn't want to implement restrictions on China?
The best Japanese economists were trained in the US universities, weren't they?
The major reason for Japan's economic miracle after World War II was due to the support of the United States, the Korean War and the Cold War. The United States cultivated Japan as its bridgehead against the Soviet Union and China in Asia, and transferred many industries to Japan, such as shipbuilding, electronics, automobiles, and semiconductors. , these are all given by the United States, so the United States can take back these industries at any time, while China's industries have slowly developed on their own after receiving assistance from the Soviet Union. This is the essential difference between China and Japan. A country like Japan that lacks sovereignty You cannot keep the wealth you have created. Creating wealth is easy, keeping the wealth you create is difficult
Strangely, during the period, the crime rate in Japan kept dropping.
It may not be that easy for China to keep the society safe and the culture intact.
China will succeed as always because the Chinese ppl are hardworkers, and smart.
With Bricks China and Asean will stay, we Asean must work together and do not lets THEM keep printing without GOLD staking which they break the rules and stay to the top
30years seem like a lifetime ago in economic terms........ 1990👀👀
Thanks for the fantastic analysis into Japan's and China's economic situation!
The thing is china is not printing money as what the us wanted them to do
China has a M2 supply that is twice that of the US, they do print a s@#$load of money. It's baked in their financial system that gives limitless loans to enterprises.
All we know is China needs to modernize strengthen their defence ,otherwise puppets like Philippines and Japan - almost 100 Us military bases can easily disrupt trade routes.@@mathieug6136
China is different in the sense that Japan was controlled by the USD but China isn't.
I am a Japanese who used the translation.
China's current economic situation is similar to what Japan experienced in the 1980s and 1990s. Trade friction with the U.S., U.S. restrictions on semiconductors, bursting of the stock market bubble, bursting of the real estate bubble, high unemployment and difficulty finding jobs for college graduates, long-term deflation, and financial crisis,
It took Japan 12 years to dispose of the 200 trillion yen in non-performing loans from its real estate bubble, during which time more than 100 financial institutions failed.
As for the unemployment rate, it lasted 11 years from 1993 to 2003, during which time more than 3 million young people committed suicide in despair. This is the same number of Japanese who died in World War II.
China must improve its unemployment rate now or it will become the next Japan.
There's not so much they can do, it's really hard to move away from their high investment growth model as it implies huge reforms in how the revenues are split between households, enterprises and governments. Their main focus was already to keep everyone employed, whatever if it was making sense economically. Most likely, they will run that model onto a crisis and stretch the consequences over a long time: a stagnation. It will probably be relatively worst than as Japan could still have easy access to the markets of the western world, something China will have a hard time with.
3 million young people committed suicide? Really?
@@mathieug6136Theoritically agree. Anyway when China never has hard time? but still can survive and time will reveal that.
As a Chinese there is one thing I admire the Japanese, since modern times science and technology are generally Western dominated, but Japan after World War II with just three decades of time, science and technology than the West and even beyond, almost every year after the nineties, a Nobel Prize winner, culture, there is a leading animation output, etc., and even now Japan's per capita income and life expectancy is three times that of China, I think it's too incredible it is worthwhile for the Chinese to learn seriously.
The true elite of Japan knows that the real reason for Japan's failure is the suppression by the United States. The defeated countries in World War II lacked autonomy and had no resistance to pressure from the White House, and the same was true of South Korea.
2 major factors of japan's economic bust: 1. plaza accord, 2. huge bubble within the economy both in real estate and in the stock market
1.china wouldnt be signing the plaza accord with the us or comply to us wishes because china has a military and japan lost ww2 so they dont have a substantial military and have us military bases on their own soils
2. china doesnt currently have a bubble in the stock market. sure real estate is over valued but not near the same level as japan was. for exmaple to buy an apartment at the center of the city in either beijing or shanghai both around 10 million population, you need about 10000000 yuan, which is about $2,000,000 usd. that price point is on par with manhattan so imo is not nearly as bad as japan not even close
Totally disagree.
China is not even considered a rich country. China is gearing towards a planned economy which never works . China,s economy is reliant on the West. 80% of China's customers are from the West.
China's stock market already popped in 2007 , it has dropped in half ever since .
The real estate has also popped, and this will drag everything down .
Between $150-300 monthly wage across China. (2016)
~
Vietnam is better off than China. Deep poverty, defined as the percentage of the population living on less than $1 per day, has declined significantly in Vietnam and the relative poverty rate is now less than that of China, India and the Philippines .
source: Vietnam Business Guide: Getting Started in Tomorrow's Market Today (2011)
Well the average incomes in Manhattan are higher,what’s the house to income ratio 😂
ur talking about average disposable income there. Which by definition includes old people and kids among the denomintor. Its hardly relevant to property buying or mortgage repayment. Also mind you, over 90% of CN households already own a home.
@@maxjing61err no. You underestimate how much is the wealth gap in China is. You literally have people with masters degree working as food delivery riders.
A lot of their wealth rests on the upper class and most of them left china during the pandemic
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It is not accurate to say that the Plaza Accord killed the Japanese economy.
Wages and fixed costs have been revalued.
This weakened the international competitiveness of Japanese companies.
Then, Japan was unfairly restricted in various ways, and as South Korea and China were given preferential treatment, Japan's export industries were reduced one after another.
On the other hand, for domestic demand, investments for disaster prevention and the aging population were covered by government bonds.
As a result, it has become possible to withstand disasters caused by global warming and socially support the deaths of 1.5 million people a year.
Very informative video and a great summary of the events leading to Japan's bubble. The key is the living standards of the people must not fall backwards. If the bursting of the property bubble allows all citizens to purchase affordable housing, then that is a tremendous achievement. Having your own place to live is the first step to happiness.
Exactly. In the west the economy is pumped by an infinite increase in the price of housing. On paper the country is richer because of the increase in asset price, but people's lives haven't improved at all. That's fake growth.
It's better not to grow than to "grow" where only a select few gets all the growth.
China is deflating their bubble, rather than bursting it. Expect China to nationalize assets while forcing Western investors to take the losses, no US-style bailout.
As if china will be dead. China brain is half off Japan......
Haha, you think this is a single regression variable?
- What about 30% of the economy that relies on real estate?
- What about the current owners who would lose -30% to -50% of their wealth due to house value dropping?
Are you that blind to think that wages will go up or stay the same if housing prices drop by -50%?
@@ZweiZwolf The US didn't lose a cent with TARP. Ended up with a $20B profit in the end.
You really think western investors are deeply invested in Chinese real estate? 🤣🤣🤣
You really haven't looked at the books of the Chinese RE developers. 85%+ of the debt is all Chinese owned.
Namaskar,🙏🙏🙏🙏
India is unlivable in nearly every respect. Failed State India ranks 107 on Hunger Index, 132 on HDI, 180 on EPI, 126 on Happiness Index. There are specific temples in India (like Chilkur Balaji) where Indians pray for visa to run away🙏
Don't share these information with palki sharma..once she opens her mouth..you're doomed.
😂Pakistani bot think about ur own country 😂ur doomed
No, India became a modern superpower on 1 January, 2020!
INDIA SUPERPOWER 2020!
but your prime minister bragged that india is growing very fast and everything is fine in india now you need to enjoy the growing growth rate of India.
China😂😂😂
Human development index 79😂
Happiness index 85😂
To my surprise, no one talks about Fukushima waste water anymore.
😂😂😂
It was always a purely fictional problem. Only China and Greenpeace pretended there was a problem.
(And China pours lots of radioactive water into the sea, actually.)
@@peterfireflylund then there's your China that throws tritium in the south china sea. Nice! free to criticize others but cannot be criticized, like in china criticizing the CCP is a crime.
Why?
No joke
1st lesson: Do not sign stup!d Plaza Accord treaty alike. 😂
We Japanese have been trying to catch up with the West for 150 years, but we are still aware that we have not reached the top.
No matter how bad America is, we must learn from it.
When China began to oppose the United States in the South China Sea, many Japanese intellectuals thought, ``Maybe it's still too early.''
I think that was a correct assessment.
As a Chinese there is one thing I admire the Japanese, since modern times science and technology are generally Western dominated, but Japan after World War II with just three decades of time, science and technology than the West and even beyond, almost every year after the nineties, a Nobel Prize winner, culture, there is a leading animation output, etc., and even now Japan's per capita income and life expectancy is three times that of China, I think it's too incredible it is worthwhile for the Chinese to learn seriously.
The atomic bombs have really messed you Japanese up
@@kimchiba4570
Koreans have abandoned Chinese characters, so after the Japanese colonial era disappears, Koreans will have no choice but to decline.
It has become impossible to inherit Korean academics and industrial technology in the native language, and perhaps even today, even among the Koreans, there is no communication involving advanced concepts.
So as always, Japanese people love gambling. The bombing of Pearl Harbor during World War II was a gamble, and now betting on the United States is also a gamble. If China shows signs of victory in the competition between China and the United States, Japan will not be surprised to stab the United States and surrender to China. The Japanese elite knew that the thirty years they lost were caused by the United States, but due to their status as a defeated country in World War II, Japan was unable to break free from American control. So Japan is doing its best to incite a war between China and the United States, once again changing the world order, and then getting rid of its position controlled by the United States by choosing sides and standing in line.
Oppose the US in the South CHINA Sea?
Do you know what you are saying? 😂
Maybe you will mention how Japan opposed China in China in the 30S of last century? 😂
At least we have learnt that it's despicable to defile ocean by discharging radioactive wastewater.😅
Like China does? Yeah.
Japan, on the other hand, pours water in the sea that has practically zero radioactivity.
If you believe otherwise, you have fallen for the propaganda of China and Greenpeace.
Yes, they should stop discharging radioactive water from the Qinshan and Ningde nuclear power plants.
@@userxY1fP3tHY4Ui1Zs thankyou for the compliment
China will succeed in the long run and start the made in china product which is they will be self sufficient and less reliant in US tech.
All countries are countries, but China is a civilization disguised as a country! No matter what ideology the ruler is in power, only the ability to inherit and perpetuate Chinese civilization can demonstrate the legitimacy of his rule. This law has not changed for thousands of years. Even if there is division and foreign invasion and suppression in the short term, as long as the Chinese people are still there , as long as China's dominant ethnic group is still there, Chinese civilization will take root, flourish, and grow, and will eventually return to a unified country. This is why China has never said that it is rising, only that it is rejuvenating! The meaning that China gives to the word "country" is difficult for other countries to understand!
@@Rob-iz6nm The United States is an Anglo-Saxon country founded by massacring Indians and plundering Indian lands! Where does civilization come from? Japan is a country founded on the basis of Confucian culture by people from the Qin Dynasty of China who traveled east to the Japanese island. If this is a civilization, then this civilization can only be said to be an accessory or branch of the Chinese civilization. In modern times, Japan and South Korea were influenced by Europe and the United States. It has been de-Sinicizing, but it has never been able to get rid of the influence of Chinese civilization, thus forming a distorted social culture! Just like the empires of the past: the Persian Empire, the Roman Empire, the Alexander Empire, the Ottoman Turkish Empire, the British Empire and other empires were all built on the basis of war and plunder. Once they weakened, they would fall apart or even cease to exist, and no one would take them back. Unify! These empires are just countries, not to mention the small countries that broke off. They only inherited and maintained their own racial culture. They are not civilizations. Civilizations are based on the accumulation of history and the humanistic spirit recognized and accepted by most people. Civilizations are not Relying on barbaric wars and plunder, ancient Babylon, ancient Egypt, and ancient India all once created civilizations, but because of racial and religious wars, they all eventually disappeared and were not inherited and carried forward! But China is different. No matter which ethnic group is in power in China, no matter which religion is dominant, they all emphasize that they will inherit Chinese civilization to demonstrate their legitimacy! Even though it was devastated after being invaded by European, American powers and Japan, China finally established a unified country. This is why it is said that China is a civilization disguised as a country!
The whole Chinese district belongs to India
Me be drinking tody to much!! 😂😂😂
- Only 60% Chinese moved to the city: plenty of room to grow the real estate sector --> add more to GDP
- With more new Chinese home buyers: more household appliances, electronics, and items consumption --> accelerate PPP
- 100 million new young Chinese graduates: majority are STEM, 10x the USA: more R&D, bigger engineering projects --> increases GNP
- If China retake Taiwan province back or have larger border war with India or medium war with USA: Chinese couples will naturally start giving more birth and men/women imbalance will be narrowed
- China BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) will ensure China >5% annual growth for the next few decades --> world number 1 economy title is a matter of time.
You can't compare the two.
Japan's slow down was by design.
The US forced Japan to do that by forcing them to sign the Plaza accords whic forced Japan to increase the value of its currency massively.
This created massive bumble in Japan until or burst in the late 1980s and led to deflation
Japan's problem could have easily be resolved by devaluing their currency so their goods would become more competitive and affordable overseas
The US would not let them because Japan is an American tributary vassal state with tens of thousands of American troops occupying Japan.
The ruling party LDP is completely under the control of the CIA. They even get funding from the CIA.
I am assuming this is what China could do.
Devalue their currency
I heard Professor Jeffrey Sachs talk about this.
Plus China is much more powerful than Japan.
inaccurate , Japan invaded China during WWII though even its territory size is much smaller than China, Japan is way more powerful than China
@@kenyup7936 you clown, Japan invaded China in the mist of huge Chinese civil war.
China had not been industrialized at the time. 85% of China's population were rural tenant farmers who couldn't even read or write. China was technologically backwards. China was one of the poorest countries in the world at the time.
Ask Japan to invade China right now that China is fully industrialized, technologically advanced rich and unified.
A nation's strength is measured by its economy, industrial capacity, technological prowess and its population size.
China's economy is almost 4 times the size of Japan's.
China industrial capacity is larger than the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea combined.
China has surpassed Japan in technology in almost every key area. Japan has never even put a human being in space.
Japan fell technologically behind China.
Japan spends only a fraction of what China spends in Research and development and graduates way less Scientists, tech, engineers and mathematicians than China.
China's population is more than 11x larger than Japan's.
And yet you think Japan is stronger than China.
@@kenyup7936 Are we still in the 1940s? Or are we living in 2023? Using your logic, Mongolia should be a world's superpower right now.
@@kaika- nope, at least China can't make high-end semiconductors itself, but Japan has that kinda capabilities,Japan dominated the world cameras markets as well as anime,games consoles, JAV market, so what does China dominate now?
@@kenyup7936 JAV market?? Haha, I know non Japanese like you never pay for JAV. But download illegally ^^
Why is China opening up it's market only at (what the world view as) turtle pace? Why is the internalization of Yuan goes the same? Answer these two questions and you'd know how China will not follow suit what it's now call Japanification.
I believe the solution is in between USA and Japanese way of economy, authorities need to react fast on sudden economy change to avoid overheated or recession. Keep raising productivity to support the growth rather than thru unsustainable over engineer paper growth (Land and stock). China growth is sustainable because of capacity, population. Policy need to support growth
How on earth are Japan and China even comparable? 😂 Sorry but this makes absolutely no sense and says something about the ignorance of liberal scmp. At least employ someone with a basic understanding of history and China's socialist politics.
Japan has been chained by US since the defeat on WW2, but China is totally different story.
Russia catches American spies .... Iran catches America spies. Now, America catches Chinese spies. What's the diff?? "Everybody's doing it ...doing it!!"
you cannot compare china with japan. Japan is a colony of the US after WW2 with defeat. Japan has to get OK from the US on whatever Japan does. The US wants Japan to appreciate its currency and Japan has to accede to the US demand. Japan economic policy was turned upside down. Since then Japan has not pulled up its economy. China population is huge and its government is for the people, by the people and control the entire economy whereas Japanese government is for the many rich zaibatsu. The Chinese government thinks long term with 5y,10y,15yr ,20y etc plans to promote the national economy. Japan has no such long term plan.
No it cannot if it followed SCMP news as a policy guidance.
Why did Japan "lost 30 years"? Because they are just an "Akita dog" with a dog leash in the hands of the United States.
Never let the imperialist sip in. Never
Tankie
Just the title of this video alone is ridiculous. For China to learn anything from Japan, to quote a Chinese idiom, the sun will have to rise from the west! Consider all the prerequisites for "to learn"; the right attitude, the right foundational knowledge, the willingness, the ability to take in information and then modify them to fit one's own needs, the right people to organize the effort, the appropriate political environment, etc. None of them exist in the People's Republic of China today. The Chinese Communist Party will drown in the silo that it has created for itself in the past decade.
WhyHong kong is developed country and China is developing ciuntry?😃😃🙄🙄🤣🤣
The Chinese People Daily was so naive: "the Chinese stock market has no historical notion of a bubble!"
This is especially arrogance, given that the fact that there were so many boom-and-bust cycles that had occurred elsewhere prior to that point...
Learn what from Japan? Japan's development was taken down badly by US' Plaza Accord of 1985, and US has already tried everything on China but fails this time unlike the case of Japan.
There's only one country to date who can tell the horrors of atom (nuclear) bombs.
Why no one mentioned America have highest Debt in the world?
Don't bend the knee = not becoming Japan 2.0.
In 2023, Best explanation, ever on youtube , about the economic trend in China versus Japan,
great work from South China Morning post!
The greatness of Tang will rise again.
Answer:
China is a nuclear superpower too & US can't threaten China like how america threatened & destroyed Japan OK
So China to beat US in economy or commerce
If Russia can survive US Economic Intimidation via sanctions, then 100% sure China will not end up like Japan, China's GDP PPP is 6x Russia's GDP PPP and Russia's economy is still doing great despite wars and many sanctions
To be fair, Japan is a high income developed nation. China is facing the same issue when it is still a middle income country. But there is no denying the fact that China is destined to be a great power.
Japan got rich before their economy stagnated. And they still maintained remarkable level of social discipline during the tough time. And they only had to care for 120 million people. And they maintained supreme image during all this among other countries.
China is stagnating before they got to japan's level. Their average income is still middle level. Do they have it in them to maintain order during turbulent time??? They have 1.4 billion people and nowhere the same level of social discipline. China would be lucky if they can have japan's level of problem
Agree
But China's huge size is also China's advantage, and unlike Japan, China is not a colony of the United States.
china can say no to America
@@yuizaift8940what freedom Japan isn’t a free country it’s a vassal state
ভাই আর কতদিন আমরিকার ধন চুষতে থাকবেন। বাঙালির এই ১টা সমস্যা, একটু সাদা চামড়ার মানুষ দেখলেই কামলাগীরি শুরু করে। জাপানে এত নিয়ম কানুন আছে দেখেই ওরা বাচ্চা নিতে চায়না, তারা দেশ ছেড়ে চলে যেতে চায়। US propagandar jonno amra mone kori Japanese ra onek vlo but Japanese ra procure racist r ora procure cheating kore oder partner er upor. R China akhono middle income country bolei export based economy hishebe thakte partese. R oder skilled labor ase. China collapsed korte atleast aro 10 year lagbe jodio amr mone hoyna collapse korbe. R Chinese ra Japanese der theke beshi patriotic,tara obosshoi shob kisu korbe nijer desh k rokkha korte unlike Japanese people jara nijer desh US er kache beche dise. Japaner kono natural resources chilo na but Chinar Xinjiang e onek petroleum ase, metal ,coal mine ase oder. Tai amr mone hoyna China ato shohoje collapse korbe. R Pockete tk na thakle discipline kono kajei ashbe na.
Excellent overview. Ultimately, China's future economic growth needs to rely on China's own citizens, not on exports. When China was poor, exports were a great driver of growth, because the outside world could afford to buy an endless amount of Chinese goods, while Chinese people couldn't afford to buy anything. But now China is rich and the domestic market is significantly bigger than before. China needs to take advantage of that by allowing a bigger share of the economy to go into people's pockets. The outside world is no longer big enough to buy all China's goods.
This, however, would lead to new powerful interest groups that can challenge the CCP and thus increasing pressures for political change
😂😂😂😂China is sill developing poor country🤣🤣
If developed All 3 world countries come to china for live like USA👍
Until the CCP will rule with an iron fist in a Mao style autocracy, without any input allowed from the middle class and private companies, China will stagnate and repression will be even stricter.
@@ghormax Why?
@@ghormax just love to agitate & see the demise of China, don't you ?
Japan needs to learn lessons from China, not the other way around. China is absolutely incapable of making mistakes.
What is important for China today is its market and balance sheet, not its GDP.
Nice synopsis of the ongoing debate.
从失去的10年说到20年30年，很快就40年了，日本还是一直失去，所以有什么好学的？
1.5x speed recommended. Narrator speaks super slowly.
Yes, that's why the chinese people are supporting huawei
Asking these kinds of questions make me think SCMP don't know mainland china that well
Please do Japan Bashing video.
All the moves.
Yeah, not being a US puppet like Japan that every year thanks the US for the 2 nukes.😂
It was the plaza accord which killed Japan's economy not Japanese killed their economy by themselves