@@garrettosborne4364 someone said that she said she won’t release the crosstabs because she doesn’t want her work checked. The person who said that was just some random person online so I don’t know if it’s true
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
I heard her on an npr show the other day. This was before the the poll was released. She was already talking about an upcoming poll. Then she started to talk about January 6th and I turned it off. She obviously has some serious bias issues
I live in very blue Reston, Virginia. Today I saw a huge American flag with a huge Trump flag being driven around by a black guy in a pickup truck. Man, I don't know what to believe.
Love that man! That’s true support. Kamala couldn’t get a genuine supporter if she tried outside of her despicable pandering and her vile love for abortion.
@@Mr_Zzzeee You must live in a different world than reality. The only most notable shift was far, far away from Trump after his Nazi rally at MSG last week.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
@@joshuaclay1594 totally agree. Watching that again he politely and without any vitriol at all, got what he needed and spit her out so that we all saw it was a total fraud. She knew it, he knew it, and Halperin knew it. That was masterclass Newt!
Too polite, if you ask me. Past electoral results from 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 DO MATTER. She is being obtuse or disingenuous to dogmatically assert she refuses to map her current data onto the historical range from the past four cycles. Voters rarely shift dramatically in one cycle....and certainly not for phony Kamala Harris. FDR, yes. Reagan, yes. Obama, yes. Harris, hard NO.
he tucked his tail when she explained the other polls were weighing incorrectly. This is the republican machine trying to discredit a pollster with an amazing track record.
The Emerson poll only measured Trump and Harris. The Register poll measured Trump, Harris, Kennedy, and the Libertarian candidate. Neither poll showed Harris with a majority.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Sure, according to this poll, only 8% of Iowans think the economy and inflation are the most important issue... So we're supposed to believe that Iowa is completely different from the rest of the country--and that the big Republican registration gains in Iowa also mean nothing. It is unbelievable that anyone would take this poll seriously. Whether some people want to accept it or not, Trump will win Iowa (as well as Ohio and Florida) by double digits. Scoff if you want, but do remember it once the results come in and realize you were warned.
Who would take a poll result seriously that says only 8% of the voters think the economy is a key issue? This entire episode was Mark Halperin trying to make up to his Democratic critics for being fair all this time, it’s his little last kick of hopium for them so he doesn’t have to hear them say he was favoring the Trump voters, despite the reality that Trump is winning. And then Newt Gingrich asks her how come it’s such an outlier and how could it be, and she proceeded to tell him that somebody took the data in the statistics, and then topped their own opinion all over it. Isn’t that what I just heard? 😂
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
meanwhile MSNBC is talking about how Trump might win NH. I think she has an obligation to redo this poll when you get an outliner like this. Trump will win Iowa by 12 points or so
She hasn't been wrong since...2004. And in 2016, she was the only one who saw that Trump was going to potently beat Hillary. Can her poll be wrong this time? Sure...but it's much more likely it isn't wrong.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
@@mananimal3644 I live in Minnesota. Which is to the left of Iowa and it Trump signs out number Harris 4 to 1.. I drive all over the state all the time. That being said I think Harris will win MN . My point is signs don't mean much
My training is in biology, so I don't know how well it tranfers over. But when we get a result that contradicts in a dramatic way all the prior experiments, we do that experiment over with a fresh sample. The working assumption is that something went haywire.
Scientists use statistics all the time. Her greatest variable is who gets contacted for the poll. And there is no computer model yet devised that can model a population of voters.
I think there is going to be a huge women’s vote this year AND Trump will win. It will confuse the pollsters and media but the little secret is women care about the economy and security too. It’s not all about abortion. Shh. Don’t tell anyone though or all the smart people might step outside their bubbles for a minute and take a look around.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
@@mikehamilton4880 Because unlike the things you make up about Biden, there's real smoke around Trump. I know MAGA is crazy, but there's a difference between lies and truth.
Even if she is, that doesn’t mean she’s fluffing her numbers. Man you guys are dumb. Her polls in 2016 were much more in favor of trump than others. It’s possible she just got a bad sample in This one.
@@tripp8833 She sure was suspect of a fishy poll that had Trump +18 back in early summer and she didn't release it because it was suspect. Out of line with any other poll. Just like this one that she had no quams about releasing. She's being a hack with this one and she knows it. She's too smart not to know it.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Why have Gingrich talking to this woman when he doesn't know the details of current polling methodology? Why not have Rich Baris or someone from Trafalgar come on and explain exactly why her poll is garbage?
They were being overly nice to her considring her 2020 Iowa poll over sampled Dems dramatically and this year she won't share the cross tabs or even mention the sample party ID mix. And her not knowing what the D and R meant earlier in this interview was embarrassing. Credible pollsters show the cross tabs and factor in latest party registration data, not just depend on "whoever answers the phone is my sample!" That's not scientific at all. You two gentleman were being way to nice.
How did Plouffe get the poll information BEFORE it was released? Why didn't Mark have someone like Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen to check out the Methodology of Ann's poll. The people that were there had little expertise in checking the weak points of her poll. Finally this was dropped with little time to check the poll for flaws. This stinks so my question to Ann is: Who on the Harris campaign got to her?
There has been some speculation that one reason the numbers are off is that a lot of highly motivated Republicans voted early and did not participate in polling.
@@scottleish So, you...a random anonymous RUclips commenter...knows for a fact that no Republicans talk to pollsters. That's what you are saying? I think it's just something you've made up in your head to cope. I'm a Republican (one who would never vote for a predator, though) and I've been polled and responded accordingly. You've also failed to account for the fact that EVERY POLL EVER accounts for disproportionate responses. If you have less Rep responses than Dem responses, you adjust the weights accordingly. Again, EVERY POLL EVER ACCCOUNTS FOR WHAT YOU ARE CLAMING.
@ you’re not a random anonymous RUclips commenter? You’re special? Hahaha you can’t even read. AT THIS STAGE, Republicans are NO LONGER talking to pollsters. This is common knowledge. I’m not a Republican, nor am I a Trump voter. I’m just not an idiot, as you appear to be.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
But it got her in the news, and brought her publicity and interviews. Well know if she's competent on this poll in 48-72 hours and if she's not close she just damaged her career, if she right she just boosted it
Trump won Iowa by nearly 9 points in 2020, when he was far less popular than he is now. I think a Trump win of 12 + points is more like it for this Tuesday.
I've modeled using randomly collected data. Some data is more random than others. It's my belief that democrats, (as opposed to Trump supporters), are more likely to respond to a poll because they have no fear of being canceled or judged. Too many unknowns exist about this outlier poll for it to be taken seriously.
I kind of think Mark did this to set her up to show us all this poll was a total fraud and nothing burger: if so, thank you, Mr. Halperin. We needed to see this. Instantly after she explained her methodology we all knew it was a total fraud. Was absolutely ridiculous and as soon as she revealed that, my anxiety instantly left me :)!
That lady just spoke out of both sides of her mouth. In morning meeting she stresses that they have their trends that don’t deviate drastically and then claims that 65+ rural completely flipped from their Sept poll. Huh?
@@bytownbylaw that was meant to get Biden off the ticket. Once again she was doing it for the Democratic Party. That was released when the dems were trying to get Biden off the ticket aAFTER THE DEBATE
Mark is right that we can learn something new about the other side here. I just learned how robust methodological justifications can convince a pollster - and their clients - that an implausible poll is really discovering something hidden by other polls.
So a pollster with years of experience acts like a deer in the headlights when presented with facts of how badly she oversampled D friendly demographics compared to the actual makeup of the Iowa 2020 electorate and even needs to be taught what the D and R might be referring to so Mark has to walk her through it like a grade school teacher?!! Wtf
She forgets one thing. With such a deviation, she needs to ask the voting history of this group. If they voted for DT before but now are voting for KH, then it is not an outlier. If it isn't the case, then it is.
in all her videos since the poll, she comes across incredibly condescending and defensive. she's calling in favours to appear on shows where her peers will constantly make note of her "highly respected" status to run cover for her reputation after she published, probably in a drunken fit of passion, an absolute meme of a prediction. coulda just retired in peace but she couldn't resist the urge to act like a goofy on her way out. now she's regretting it 😂
How much do you want to bet that the location splits for this poll were 50 percent from Polk County, 30 percent from Johnson County and 20 percent from Linn County (aka, three of the most liberal counties in Iowa)? How on earth do you come up with an Iowa poll with Harris +3 in a state which voted for President Trump by close to double digits in 2020?
The Iowa legislature and governor signed into law this year a very strict abortion ban. This went into effect in July, and received a ton of local media. I think it is quite possible there could be backlash from women on this issue in Iowa. I still think Trump will win Iowa, but it could be tighter than 2020. I do not think this issue is a national issue or even a swing state issue. If the national polls are any indication, at best the popular vote is tied, or either Trump or Harris ahead by less than a point. There is no way abortion could be a big issue, if the popular vote is truly that close. The other theory I have is that Ann missed 9% of the MAGA vote when she polled the Iowa Republican caucus in January. Both Trump and DeSantis outperformed that poll. I still think there are a lot of strong Trump supporters who are like me. We view the pollsters as a part of the Deep State machine, often financed by the Main Stream Media. We don't trust them, so we either do not take part in the polls or we outright lie. I've never been polled, but if I were, I would lie and be like, "Oh yes, honey, I am voting Kamala all the way." LOL I would do that because it would be a chance to embarrass the pollsters, if enough people like me did that.
After triple checking, she noticed Trump was down by half a point in Oklahoma-these people with the propaganda just never stop. We will remember this tomorrow and she will likely never have to work again. Just a hunch
In other words, EVERYONE knows this poll is trash😅
Tell her to get back to us when she figures out what the D and R means
@@jeansullivan3869lol knowing that is kind of important will doing polls
I just want to check the poll out. I can't seem to find the crosstabs so if anyone knows let me know.
@@garrettosborne4364 someone said that she said she won’t release the crosstabs because she doesn’t want her work checked. The person who said that was just some random person online so I don’t know if it’s true
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
She doubled checked, she triple checked, and then she cashed Kamala's check....
Exactly!!! She’s like, hey - F my reputation, I don’t need a reputation when I take my $5 million and enjoy my last 20 years on the beach in Turks 😂
😂😂😂
hehe
just like Hinchcliff
Bingo
They treat her with too much respect. She bristles when Newt asks if she doublechecks her numbers. I feel her MAGA contempt coming through the air.
Every woman should bristle when Newt speaks. The guy is a serial adulterer and has no respect for women. Like all MAGA.
Iowa Blue
I heard her on an npr show the other day. This was before the the poll was released. She was already talking about an upcoming poll. Then she started to talk about January 6th and I turned it off. She obviously has some serious bias issues
her record is unmatched. She has more credibility than Newt on this.
@@convinceme6676 lol
I live in very blue Reston, Virginia. Today I saw a huge American flag with a huge Trump flag being driven around by a black guy in a pickup truck. Man, I don't know what to believe.
Yeah you can feel the vibe shift for Trump this election cycle. BUT if Dems get a ton of women, they can still win the EC
Love that man! That’s true support. Kamala couldn’t get a genuine supporter if she tried outside of her despicable pandering and her vile love for abortion.
@@Mr_Zzzeee You must live in a different world than reality. The only most notable shift was far, far away from Trump after his Nazi rally at MSG last week.
I work in Reston at the hospital 😂😂😂😂
cool story bro
She looks and sounds liberal.
Yea I don’t trust her it’s a bs poll
Bigger glasses make you smarter.
Big time. Harris winning Iowa is comedy gold
💯
@cornstar1253 🤣🤣🤣
Newt stating the obvious. Thank you, sir.
That it is rigged? He is right.
@@mananimal3644this poll is to depress the vote
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Newt was on fire there. What you saw here was a very polite but thorough dismissal of this garbage poll.
The consummate professional
@@joshuaclay1594 totally agree. Watching that again he politely and without any vitriol at all, got what he needed and spit her out so that we all saw it was a total fraud. She knew it, he knew it, and Halperin knew it. That was masterclass Newt!
Newt cheated on his wife while she was suffering from cancer. Nice hero you have there.
Too polite, if you ask me. Past electoral results from 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 DO MATTER. She is being obtuse or disingenuous to dogmatically assert she refuses to map her current data onto the historical range from the past four cycles. Voters rarely shift dramatically in one cycle....and certainly not for phony Kamala Harris. FDR, yes. Reagan, yes. Obama, yes. Harris, hard NO.
he tucked his tail when she explained the other polls were weighing incorrectly. This is the republican machine trying to discredit a pollster with an amazing track record.
Sorry to say but her poll is BS. It matches nobody else and it way off on the historical model
It was based on this issues of Abortion and "Democracy" which are WAAAY down the list behind the Economy and the Border.
@JamesClark-lw6sw well said. Economy and people's safety are always number 1and 2
@@elrond3737 I don't know. Number 1 for me was not voting for a predator and a felon.
A day later Emerson showed a over 10% Trump lead, she created this poll as propaganda.
The Emerson poll only measured Trump and Harris. The Register poll measured Trump, Harris, Kennedy, and the Libertarian candidate. Neither poll showed Harris with a majority.
Gingrich is very knowledgeable about political history
But, he has never called a election correctly.😒
@@mananimal3644 Actually he has, he called both Obama wins correctly and Trump 1.
@@trith72 and Bush twice. And probably Bush senior And Reagan.
And adultery.
@@mananimal3644 😂😂😂😂 Exactly
This poll will not age well methinks
I think Seltzer was offered a LOT of money by Dems for her recent biased poll favoring Harris. They ard that desperate.
Cope
They never do.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
@@nickatnite85some polls in fact do age well.
Sure, according to this poll, only 8% of Iowans think the economy and inflation are the most important issue... So we're supposed to believe that Iowa is completely different from the rest of the country--and that the big Republican registration gains in Iowa also mean nothing.
It is unbelievable that anyone would take this poll seriously. Whether some people want to accept it or not, Trump will win Iowa (as well as Ohio and Florida) by double digits. Scoff if you want, but do remember it once the results come in and realize you were warned.
Who would take a poll result seriously that says only 8% of the voters think the economy is a key issue? This entire episode was Mark Halperin trying to make up to his Democratic critics for being fair all this time, it’s his little last kick of hopium for them so he doesn’t have to hear them say he was favoring the Trump voters, despite the reality that Trump is winning. And then Newt Gingrich asks her how come it’s such an outlier and how could it be, and she proceeded to tell him that somebody took the data in the statistics, and then topped their own opinion all over it. Isn’t that what I just heard? 😂
They don't care. It's all magical thinking now.
The rest of the country thinks not having a felon/predator as President is a good thing.
Someone needs to tell her that to have an accurate poll you cannot only ask DemocRAT voters.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
meanwhile MSNBC is talking about how Trump might win NH. I think she has an obligation to redo this poll when you get an outliner like this. Trump will win Iowa by 12 points or so
Tell yourself that? 😊
Not enough time for a redo.
@@Faithique polling companies routinely get outliers. Publishing one 2 days before an election is ridiculous
Iowa poll is BS. This lady acts like her poll is the gospel.
She hasn't been wrong since...2004. And in 2016, she was the only one who saw that Trump was going to potently beat Hillary. Can her poll be wrong this time? Sure...but it's much more likely it isn't wrong.
She's the most accurate pollster in Iowa history, so....
@@AlderPeak Yeah can't argue with that!
@@AlderPeakyeah, she’s way to defensive. I might believe it if she wasn’t going so hard
@@AlderPeakher career in polling is now circling the drain
I'M SORRY I JUST DON'T BELIEVE SUCH A SHIFT IS POSSIBLE
Because it’s not. It’s about as likely as me dropping 50 in an NBA game this weekend.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
She over sampled older white women
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Cat 🐈 ladies?😮😅
she seems disingenuous
maybe not Reagan-Carter, but definitely something more decisive than 2016 and 2020.
Only One thing to say about this....
Her check is in the mail....
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
I find it hard to believe that rural IA will go blue. 🤔
Believe it. Harris signs are everywhere.
@@mananimal3644 Lie much? First rule of telling a lie....make it believable...
it won't. Zero possible chance unless dems have figured out how to access and flip 80% of the votes on the machines with no one catching them.
@@mananimal3644signs don’t vote, and I’m skeptical you drove everywhere in rural Iowa to assess the signage
@@mananimal3644 I live in Minnesota. Which is to the left of Iowa and it Trump signs out number Harris 4 to 1.. I drive all over the state all the time. That being said I think Harris will win MN . My point is signs don't mean much
My training is in biology, so I don't know how well it tranfers over. But when we get a result that contradicts in a dramatic way all the prior experiments, we do that experiment over with a fresh sample. The working assumption is that something went haywire.
Biology has nothing to do with statistics. She's the expert, not you.
@@AlderPeak come on man, go and take a nap, you're all over the place.
Stick to biology then. That’s not how polling and statistics works. You are sampling a few thousand people out of millions.
@@AlderPeakpolitics has nothing to do with biology. We are living in a different world than in 2020.
Scientists use statistics all the time. Her greatest variable is who gets contacted for the poll. And there is no computer model yet devised that can model a population of voters.
I think there is going to be a huge women’s vote this year AND Trump will win. It will confuse the pollsters and media but the little secret is women care about the economy and security too. It’s not all about abortion. Shh. Don’t tell anyone though or all the smart people might step outside their bubbles for a minute and take a look around.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
She obviously doesn't plan to be or care to be around for the next poll. This is retirement money.
Grandpa, you are so pessimistic!! I am not as sharp as you. I didn’t even think of that, but now I’m watching for the announcement
Looking at the cross tabs, the economy wasn't important to those polled and abortion was the top issue. lol. This lady is a quack.
@@DeRothschild the economy is Always, always, always the top issue. Always
@@elrond3737 Not having a child predator as President is my top issue.
@@AlderPeakbiden dropped out, these are no more child predators in the race
@@AlderPeakWhy did you vote for Biden then?
@@mikehamilton4880 Because unlike the things you make up about Biden, there's real smoke around Trump. I know MAGA is crazy, but there's a difference between lies and truth.
I love it! He asked as to whether or not they double-checked their math! That was so choice! That cracked my sh*t up! 🤣
I think she is seeing what she wants to see. In other words I'm betting she's TDS'd.
Even if she is, that doesn’t mean she’s fluffing her numbers. Man you guys are dumb. Her polls in 2016 were much more in favor of trump than others. It’s possible she just got a bad sample in This one.
@@tripp8833 She sure was suspect of a fishy poll that had Trump +18 back in early summer and she didn't release it because it was suspect. Out of line with any other poll. Just like this one that she had no quams about releasing.
She's being a hack with this one and she knows it. She's too smart not to know it.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
As a pollster she doesn’t know what D and R stand for? Ask her to bet $$$ on her polls.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Her contempt is audible
What is extremely troubling to me is that Trump knew Epstein very well.
0.00% chance Harris wins Iowa.
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Have a Happy Retirement !
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Haha. She just kiboshed her career.
Strange how the key issues "found" in the poll, align perfectly with the Democrat talking points. Hmmm?
She put her career on the line with this poll.
I have heard she is retiring. Perfect for TDS timing
She failed miserably in 2020 too but here we are.
@@TedlinksChannel She was the most accurate Iowa pollster in 2020 and 2016. You are as delusional as Trump.
So a couple million is a nice retirement gift.
They are never held accountable. The same thing happened in last Iowa election polls and trump won by a large margin.
From Newt's mouth to the ears of the Divine. May it be so.
She aint listening
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Why have Gingrich talking to this woman when he doesn't know the details of current polling methodology? Why not have Rich Baris or someone from Trafalgar come on and explain exactly why her poll is garbage?
Mark Mitchell broke it down on Rasmussen sight. It is a bullshit poll.
The Des Moines Register has been out of step with most Iowans for several years now. The Register likes to preach- not report
Just like the Seattle Times.
it makes no sense if she wins iowa by 3 then she's winning texas and florida no way in heck that happens.
They were being overly nice to her considring her 2020 Iowa poll over sampled Dems dramatically and this year she won't share the cross tabs or even mention the sample party ID mix. And her not knowing what the D and R meant earlier in this interview was embarrassing.
Credible pollsters show the cross tabs and factor in latest party registration data, not just depend on "whoever answers the phone is my sample!" That's not scientific at all. You two gentleman were being way to nice.
Yet she's considered the gold standard in polling in her industry. I trust the experts rather than your opinion.
@ not true. Her methodology is questioned by experts. And not sharing the cross tabs is not the industry standard. Think.
@@TedlinksChannel No real experts have questioned her methodology...only MAGA shills. Nate Silver calls her the best pollster in America.
@@TedlinksChannel You have a custom playlist for Climate Hoax. Why in the world would anyone take you seriously???? LOLOLOL
Mark Mitchell said that there were a lot of Trump haters in that poll based on some of the realized data. Like she only polled DescMoines
How did Plouffe get the poll information BEFORE it was released? Why didn't Mark have someone like Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen to check out the Methodology of Ann's poll. The people that were there had little expertise in checking the weak points of her poll. Finally this was dropped with little time to check the poll for flaws. This stinks so my question to Ann is: Who on the Harris campaign got to her?
I hope that fake news poll people are held accountable after the elections.
My bet is with Newt on Iowa and I agree with him Dem machine is powerful and his warnings of their election shenanigans.... Vote.... good day
Why vote. Just like newt said. It’s rigged. This was over before it started.
I didn’t vote. Why bother. Newt is right.
@@mananimal3644 that is stupid. You watch a super wonky political show and don't vote... I call that BS
@@elrond3737you took that obvious bait….
There has been some speculation that one reason the numbers are off is that a lot of highly motivated Republicans voted early and did not participate in polling.
Speculation from idiots. That's not how polling works.
@@AlderPeak no it’s exactly how it works. Republicans are not talking to pollsters anymore.
@@scottleish So, you...a random anonymous RUclips commenter...knows for a fact that no Republicans talk to pollsters. That's what you are saying?
I think it's just something you've made up in your head to cope. I'm a Republican (one who would never vote for a predator, though) and I've been polled and responded accordingly.
You've also failed to account for the fact that EVERY POLL EVER accounts for disproportionate responses. If you have less Rep responses than Dem responses, you adjust the weights accordingly. Again, EVERY POLL EVER ACCCOUNTS FOR WHAT YOU ARE CLAMING.
@ you’re not a random anonymous RUclips commenter? You’re special? Hahaha you can’t even read. AT THIS STAGE, Republicans are NO LONGER talking to pollsters. This is common knowledge. I’m not a Republican, nor am I a Trump voter. I’m just not an idiot, as you appear to be.
@@scottleishagreed even BYT Nate Cohn said that it is likely there is a democrat bias in the polling again this year
Newt is delusional! Michael Moore is calling it for Kamala and has been spot on in his political predictions for years. LMFAO
"I polled all the fake news tv boomers and have harris plus 7"
Lmfao this womans a dinosaur
Newt and Magas will never accept the Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer poll that Harris Leads Trump by 3. Her poll 2016 showed Trump leading and people doubted her then and Trump won. But now when it is on the other food Newt and Magas doubt the poll. You can't have it both ways Newty boy. The good new s is we well know if the poll was right after the election and I am certian Harris will win IOWA
Hope her 30 pieces of silver go far
But it got her in the news, and brought her publicity and interviews. Well know if she's competent on this poll in 48-72 hours and if she's not close she just damaged her career, if she right she just boosted it
For all the good she may have done in her life she’ll be remembered for this horrible poll.
I will definitely be watching on Tuesday to see how Iowa does
Trump won Iowa by nearly 9 points in 2020, when he was far less popular than he is now. I think a Trump win of 12 + points is more like it for this Tuesday.
I've modeled using randomly collected data. Some data is more random than others. It's my belief that democrats, (as opposed to Trump supporters), are more likely to respond to a poll because they have no fear of being canceled or judged. Too many unknowns exist about this outlier poll for it to be taken seriously.
This lady had Trump beating Biden in Iowa by 18… she never published that poll haha
It's called selective sampling
After all of Harris’s stellar interviews she is exactly what Iowa voters are looking for. 😂
She is a consulate professional and her poll is garbage.
Why people (pollsters) can’t just be honest?
I kind of think Mark did this to set her up to show us all this poll was a total fraud and nothing burger: if so, thank you, Mr. Halperin. We needed to see this. Instantly after she explained her methodology we all knew it was a total fraud. Was absolutely ridiculous and as soon as she revealed that, my anxiety instantly left me :)!
Smart
lol I didn’t realize that was the woman who conducted the poll.
Her poll has already been picked apart by other pollsters.
That lady just spoke out of both sides of her mouth. In morning meeting she stresses that they have their trends that don’t deviate drastically and then claims that 65+ rural completely flipped from their Sept poll. Huh?
This pollster in Iowa:
2024 post-debate (Biden-Trump): +18 Trump
Now, Kamala +3
A 21-point swing. As ridiculous a poll as I can remember.
@@bytownbylaw that was meant to get Biden off the ticket. Once again she was doing it for the Democratic Party. That was released when the dems were trying to get Biden off the ticket aAFTER THE DEBATE
The look on Newt’s face 🥴on the thumbnail says it all !
Mark is right that we can learn something new about the other side here.
I just learned how robust methodological justifications can convince a pollster - and their clients - that an implausible poll is really discovering something hidden by other polls.
It’s very unfortunate that she threw this ridiculous poll out at the last minute, it’s going to really harm her professional reputation moving forward
Lady, your crappy poll is NOT going to age well. That's my prediction. 😂😂
She looks like the Librarian that tells you to be quiet.
Lol the electorate in iowa is like R+10
So a pollster with years of experience acts like a deer in the headlights when presented with facts of how badly she oversampled D friendly demographics compared to the actual makeup of the Iowa 2020 electorate and even needs to be taught what the D and R might be referring to so Mark has to walk her through it like a grade school teacher?!! Wtf
Newt not letting her get away with this BS
She's either a genius or a grifter. We'll see on election day.
In statistics, it is referred to as an outlier. Outliers happen.
So we disregard the emerson college poll that has trump up 10 that came out the same day in iowa.
People getting mad about polls as if it makes any difference at this point.
Didnt Newt predict a red wave in 22. This man is usually as wrong as two left shoes.
He's wrong about the final margin.
As for winner, it's TBD.
She didn’t come across as very humble that there could be a possibility that her poll was wrong. We shall know tomorrow 😏
She forgets one thing. With such a deviation, she needs to ask the voting history of this group. If they voted for DT before but now are voting for KH, then it is not an outlier. If it isn't the case, then it is.
Collection is on Tuesday. We'll find out real soon. What the situation is. Lol!!
Time will tell...but who will remember if she is wrong?
Correct. I mean, 8 years later who has remembered Trump is an idiot?
in all her videos since the poll, she comes across incredibly condescending and defensive. she's calling in favours to appear on shows where her peers will constantly make note of her "highly respected" status to run cover for her reputation after she published, probably in a drunken fit of passion, an absolute meme of a prediction. coulda just retired in peace but she couldn't resist the urge to act like a goofy on her way out. now she's regretting it 😂
Hope Newt`s predictions are correct but two years ago he predicted a HUGE red wave that never happened.
How much do you want to bet that the location splits for this poll were 50 percent from Polk County, 30 percent from Johnson County and 20 percent from Linn County (aka, three of the most liberal counties in Iowa)? How on earth do you come up with an Iowa poll with Harris +3 in a state which voted for President Trump by close to double digits in 2020?
Damn she got salty about Newts question.
We double chevk, we triple check and i got my Democrat cheque n I'll be checking out when Trump wins😂😂😂😂😂
She basically said the other poll is in denial of a new electorate 😂 okay lady
The Iowa legislature and governor signed into law this year a very strict abortion ban. This went into effect in July, and received a ton of local media. I think it is quite possible there could be backlash from women on this issue in Iowa. I still think Trump will win Iowa, but it could be tighter than 2020. I do not think this issue is a national issue or even a swing state issue. If the national polls are any indication, at best the popular vote is tied, or either Trump or Harris ahead by less than a point. There is no way abortion could be a big issue, if the popular vote is truly that close.
The other theory I have is that Ann missed 9% of the MAGA vote when she polled the Iowa Republican caucus in January. Both Trump and DeSantis outperformed that poll. I still think there are a lot of strong Trump supporters who are like me. We view the pollsters as a part of the Deep State machine, often financed by the Main Stream Media. We don't trust them, so we either do not take part in the polls or we outright lie. I've never been polled, but if I were, I would lie and be like, "Oh yes, honey, I am voting Kamala all the way." LOL I would do that because it would be a chance to embarrass the pollsters, if enough people like me did that.
Anne is a professional and deserves respect from the plebs.
Imagine how many EV's Reagan would have gotten without Anderson in the mix. More than 489.
Love Gingrich!!
Bs poll , it would not swing 11 points
She didn’t say who has jumped to Harris. Very odd.
She just got her retirement chq!!
She will either look like a genius or a partisan fool.
She said herself she doesn't do any weighting so it's pretty obvious the poll is heavy Democrat.
She should be arrested as soon as this Wednesday!
After triple checking, she noticed Trump was down by half a point in Oklahoma-these people with the propaganda just never stop. We will remember this tomorrow and she will likely never have to work again. Just a hunch
Her cross tabs with ridiculous.
Her poll is garbage
Just say it Newt
The people down here tempting fate, jesus christ.
Double check-question was a low key jab at her 😂