I could be wrong, but for anyone curious on the actual odds of this happening on this turn (1/10) that luigi rolls a 10 (1/4) that luigi picks toadette first (1/3) that waluigi is picked second (since toadette is already picked we cant pick her again thus 1/3 instead of 1/4) (1/6) that swap stars for coins is picked (i think, i tried counting the events in round of miracles not sure) Now we multiply (1/10)*(1/4)*(1/3)*(1/6) = 1/720 chance Or ~0.00139% chance, or roughly the same odds as drawing a straight flush in poker
You're slightly off on two points. For selecting the characters, it doesn't matter what order they're picked in, so the odds there are doubled (Pr(waluigi first then toadette)+Pr(toadette first then waluigi)). Or, to put it another way, 4 choose 2 is 6, and only one of those six possibilities contain both waluigi and toadette. Therefore the odds are (1/10)*(1/6)*(1/6)=1/360. Secondly, 1/720 is actually about 0.139%, not 0.00139%. Which makes sense, since the odds of a straight flush are 1 in 72192. So overall the odds of this happening is about the same as calling eight coin flips in a row. Still rare, but much more likely than a straight flush.
Denny Chen Ah you’re right i recognize that now. I made the second mistake simply because I forgot to move the decimal over for percent. As for the order mattering or not, i read the picture too literally thinking that stars went to the person on the right and coins to the left making order matter. Thanks for pointing the errors out
This is amazing. LMAO. As an avid fan of Mario Party I've been on both sides of this type of thing but never with such outlandish odds. Incredible lol.
Anyone that's ever played Mario Party knows that if you're in first place the absolute last space you want to see anybody land on is the chance space. It can fuck everything up royally
"It's gonna be [Waluigi]." (Everyone laughs) "Lets swap everything! Lets swap everything!" (Everyone laughs their asses off as Toadette and Waluigi swap Stars and Coins)
Waluigi got the sweetest, most exclusive, once-in-a-lifetime discount: *ELEVEN* Stars for the price of *ONE* coin! 20 coins per star x 11 stars = 220 coins. That's a discount worth 99.54%!
Literally just happened to me to tonight. I was in first with 3 stars and like 90 coins, and the computer was in last with 1 star and 30ish coins. He lands on a change space and swaps the stars and coins with me…. Soo deflating…
I was in first with 9 stars and my GF picked the chance space “cause it’s fun” then I lost 9 stars to a starless DK 😂 she isn’t happy but I’m the one who lost the stars!!
In MP5 I had a complete reversal of me being dead in the dust to being miles ahead of everyone. Toad landed on a chance capsule space and swapped Mario, who had 11 stars with me, Wario, with 4 stars.
Toadette and Waluigi’s friendship most likely ended. Luigi and Yoshi didn’t care that they lost. Toadette and Luigi might’ve ended their friendship because Luigi got Chance Time, Luigi and Waluigi became best friends as a result
This literally just almost happened to me. I was paying a game of Snowflake Lake, 3 Players, I was Waluigi, the other people were Luigi and Peach and we had Daisy as the CPU. The whole game, Daisy kept getting bullshit high rolls with the chain chomps, and I was losing alot of duels. By the last turn, (I gave everyone a 5-Star handicap so we started with 10 stars) I had 5 stars, Luigi and Peach had around 10, and Daisy had 15 stars. I went first, and I was at the start space because of a happening space at the top the previous turn. I used my last Mushroom and got an 18, which coincidentally allowed me to land on the left Miracle space. After, I rolled myself, and by this point I was shitting myself and also thinking about this very video, but unfortunately, I only coin swapped with Luigi. Later, Luigi rolled, and he could have also landed on a Miracle space with a 9, but he rolled a 6, and that sealed the victory for Daisy. Although the Mario Party Gods weren't on my side, It was still a fun time and I thought I would share this story here.
This is truly one of the amazing highlight comebacks ever! Toadette must have been upset, and Waluigi is so happy to see that happened! Plus, this is also truly one of the funniest videos ever! 🤣🤣
Basically, in the final turn of the game, the player in first place traded places with the player in fourth place. How that came to pass is the living definition of serendipity. 1. Luigi rolled a ten landing on the precise spot for the switch to happen. 10% chance. 2. Toadette (1st place) was selected. 25% chance. 3. Waluigi (4th place) was selected. 33% chance. 4. The stars-for-coins switch block was selected. 14% chance. 5. I shouldn't fail to mention miracle spaces are the rarest spaces on the board. There's only 2 of those on this map. .02% chance. If we assume order matters in the way this played out (it does as star-for-coins is only one directional), the actual odds of this turn are 2.31e-7%. OR 1/43290004.329. That's one in 43 million. Of course, that's just the facts and the numbers. What makes this whole thing so delicious is Toadette's hubris as he declared there's no chance he could lose immediately before his swift demise AND Luigi, the orchestrator of this whole debacle, gained absolutely nothing from reversing the fortune of his what I now assume is former friend.
Amazing summary Ahmed, thanks. (Although to be fair, factoring in the miracle spaces was a bit of a misleading dramatization, as the players knew at this point where that space was, so the odds of everything happening weren't quite as marginal.)
I won't deny I have a flair for the dramatic, but I stand by my calculation. The players' prior knowledge of the space's location does not effect the probability of landing on a space. It certainly affected their choice of direction they took to land on the miracle space, but that's not relevant to calculate the odds of this kind of turn to happen. Essentially, I calculated the odds of the turn itself i.e. hitting all the correct blocks in order, then calculated the odds of Luigi's position on the board so that he could have hit the correct blocks for the perfect turn. The .02% chance specifically refers to being in that exact space. It would be the same if Luigi was one space closer and rolled a 9. I hope I cleared up my methodology, and I want to thank you for your skepticism and do invite more. Frankly, 1 in 43 million seems a little....odd....to me (and I'm no mathematician). Every question asked of the proposed solution gets us closer to the truth, lest we grow content with ourselves.
As much as I still liked the Mario party series, this is actually true, liked, I will argue that this series does ruined friendships, especially when it comes to chance time and other stuff.
Take into consideration that rolling a 10 is a 10% chance, then rolling Toadette is a 25% chance, then rolling Waluigi is a 33.3% chance, then rolling swapping all stars AND coins is a 16.6% chance. Take all that into consideration and you have a play that had a 0.138% chance of happening. (Assuming I did the math right)
so essintially walugi paid 1 coin for 11 stars wow i didn't know toadette was so gnerous especially after she probably paid over 200 coins for hers XD we should all strive to be so generous
Last turn of a 50-turn game in Mario Party 3 ended up like this. Absolutely legendary!!!
I could be wrong, but for anyone curious on the actual odds of this happening on this turn
(1/10) that luigi rolls a 10
(1/4) that luigi picks toadette first
(1/3) that waluigi is picked second (since toadette is already picked we cant pick her again thus 1/3 instead of 1/4)
(1/6) that swap stars for coins is picked (i think, i tried counting the events in round of miracles not sure)
Now we multiply
(1/10)*(1/4)*(1/3)*(1/6) = 1/720 chance
Or
~0.00139% chance, or roughly the same odds as drawing a straight flush in poker
I love this so much
You're slightly off on two points. For selecting the characters, it doesn't matter what order they're picked in, so the odds there are doubled (Pr(waluigi first then toadette)+Pr(toadette first then waluigi)). Or, to put it another way, 4 choose 2 is 6, and only one of those six possibilities contain both waluigi and toadette.
Therefore the odds are (1/10)*(1/6)*(1/6)=1/360.
Secondly, 1/720 is actually about 0.139%, not 0.00139%. Which makes sense, since the odds of a straight flush are 1 in 72192.
So overall the odds of this happening is about the same as calling eight coin flips in a row. Still rare, but much more likely than a straight flush.
Denny Chen Ah you’re right i recognize that now. I made the second mistake simply because I forgot to move the decimal over for percent. As for the order mattering or not, i read the picture too literally thinking that stars went to the person on the right and coins to the left making order matter. Thanks for pointing the errors out
Ecxept the odds are triple than what you came up with, as it didn't *have* to be Waluigi.
Jony FiftyFour but it’s about going from first to fourth
1:09 the game changing earrape joy/salt moment
The odds of Luigi rolling a 10, then having to pick Toadette and Waluigi who was in last, AND swapping stars and coins. Wow.
This has to be the greatest ending of a Mario Party game in the franchises entire history
This is amazing. LMAO. As an avid fan of Mario Party I've been on both sides of this type of thing but never with such outlandish odds. Incredible lol.
Seriously tho 😂😂 I’ve seen some shit but this was just crazy
Outskilled
Hahahahahahahahaha funniest comment ever
*skill issue
@@ParodyAccount_luck issue*
@@backbutton7888 lol facts
That's one of the "Oops i reseted the game on ACCIDENT" kinda games
man14235 "I don't know what happened. The Wii just flew across the room into the wall."
@@lebbo88 Or...damn! I thought it was fully charged, so I plugged it out. LOL
I can already hear it now. “I didn’t mean to punch him in the face and try to shank him! It was an accident, honest!”
Or even, "Dude, what are you doing with that controller shoved down your throat?"
DISQUALIFIED...
The player that chose toadette must've definitely broke something XD
But hey, at least toadette got 1 more coin than before.
Pog!
@@SaltLazer literally said that in my head before I clicked on "replies"
Best deal you could ever ask for “ill trade you 11 stars for a coin :D”
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The funniest thing is that when they all shout together, it sounds more like screams of the damned...
Friendships where ended that day
Anyone that's ever played Mario Party knows that if you're in first place the absolute last space you want to see anybody land on is the chance space. It can fuck everything up royally
toadette: i dont think i cant lose.
game:oh we will see about that
toadette: loses 11 stars
jeez on the last turn i just noticed
@@ToadMinus1up at least she got one coin out of this
Waluigi: Ha! Ha! It’s the change for me to win!
At least Toadette gets one extra coin.
one coin for the amazing price of 11 stars
And I thought Black Friday had the best sales
Really just a win-win situation all around
What a bargain!
Eleven stars for a coin.
A soul for a soul.
0:48 Let's begin by selecting our "lucky" contestant
Someone get these guys to play the lottery.
This may be the single greatest moment in human history
This is absolutely my favorite Mario Party video on the internet, and I'm so glad I found it again.
In-fucking-credible.
Whoever was playing as Waluigi, really has the best time of his life, seriously he must lost his voice from this!
As someone whom went from 1st to last place by the fate of chance time in Mario Party 3 in the last possible turn, I feel that guy’s pain lol x3
Mario Party.
Watch your friendships crumble to pieces.
And then, later on that day, Waluigi was found dead by UNKNOWN REASONS
"you gotta get 10, you gotta get 10!" ... "TEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN"
"It's gonna be [Waluigi]." (Everyone laughs) "Lets swap everything! Lets swap everything!" (Everyone laughs their asses off as Toadette and Waluigi swap Stars and Coins)
If I was toadette I would break the controller.
"I'll trade you one coin for all of your stars"
-Waluigi
I wouldn’t even be mad, I’d be amazed this even happened to me.
Who needs a miracle capsule when you got Chance Time?
Waluigi got the sweetest, most exclusive, once-in-a-lifetime discount: *ELEVEN* Stars for the price of *ONE* coin! 20 coins per star x 11 stars = 220 coins. That's a discount worth 99.54%!
No wonder waluigi is not in Smash.
This why Mario Party destroys friendships
"That's not all! I activate my magic card!"
This kind of funny moments will can happen again in Superstars, i'm so excited for it!
Literally just happened to me to tonight.
I was in first with 3 stars and like 90 coins, and the computer was in last with 1 star and 30ish coins. He lands on a change space and swaps the stars and coins with me…. Soo deflating…
I was in first with 9 stars and my GF picked the chance space “cause it’s fun” then I lost 9 stars to a starless DK 😂 she isn’t happy but I’m the one who lost the stars!!
Happened to my friend and he hasn't talked to me since...
@@mike_pogo Really? Tell him it's just a game
Now how about jamboree?
Nah It’s either we throwing hands or we switching characters ong🤣
I'm fighting. Hands down. This ending friendships 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Don't worry toadette. You still won in my book
In MP5 I had a complete reversal of me being dead in the dust to being miles ahead of everyone. Toad landed on a chance capsule space and swapped Mario, who had 11 stars with me, Wario, with 4 stars.
this is Toadettes villain origin story
Now this is Mario Party
I guess we all can learn a lesson in all this.
Never count your chickens before they hatch.
And their friendship died in that moment
Toadette and Waluigi’s friendship most likely ended. Luigi and Yoshi didn’t care that they lost. Toadette and Luigi might’ve ended their friendship because Luigi got Chance Time, Luigi and Waluigi became best friends as a result
This is what started super smash bros
Noel Miller anyone?
TyrTV lmfao yup
Yup
Whos noel miller ???
look him up hes funny
TyrTV yee
We gathered here to remember the ears that were lost when watching this video.
If that happened to me, I would throw the controller at their face and destroy everything, especially if it’s the last turn.
This literally just almost happened to me.
I was paying a game of Snowflake Lake, 3 Players, I was Waluigi, the other people were Luigi and Peach and we had Daisy as the CPU. The whole game, Daisy kept getting bullshit high rolls with the chain chomps, and I was losing alot of duels. By the last turn, (I gave everyone a 5-Star handicap so we started with 10 stars) I had 5 stars, Luigi and Peach had around 10, and Daisy had 15 stars. I went first, and I was at the start space because of a happening space at the top the previous turn. I used my last Mushroom and got an 18, which coincidentally allowed me to land on the left Miracle space. After, I rolled myself, and by this point I was shitting myself and also thinking about this very video, but unfortunately, I only coin swapped with Luigi. Later, Luigi rolled, and he could have also landed on a Miracle space with a 9, but he rolled a 6, and that sealed the victory for Daisy. Although the Mario Party Gods weren't on my side, It was still a fun time and I thought I would share this story here.
And that’s how their friendship was ruined.
I swear yesterday the video title was still "Mario Party Odds" before it was changed
Imagine being forced to trade ELEVEN stars for one coin.
This is peak Mario Party
"game of skill" Dan Rykert of Giantbomb
When it comes to Mario Party, Chance Time is like the devil.
Or Jesus. It all depends on wether you’re on the receiving or giving end.
@@falconheavy0533 You do make a good point that it all depends on if it benefits you or just screws you.
This is truly one of the amazing highlight comebacks ever! Toadette must have been upset, and Waluigi is so happy to see that happened! Plus, this is also truly one of the funniest videos ever! 🤣🤣
It is funny to see that happened! 🤣
@@rosacalderon4667 Ok!
Is the full recording somewhere? would love to watch the aftermath
theycallmezeal we have the entire game recorded. This is the final exciting thing. We just played the final minigame after and that was that
If you upload the full recording I will watch it and be grateful
It's not interesting enough to warrant me editing out any personal information from the 2 hours of footage.
just tell Who won and what happened to toadette pls
well he wouldn't really be sure until he goes over the 2 hour of footage...
And thus, this will fade into legend, with no mere mortal to ever accomplish this ever again. The Legendary Chance Time Debacle!
Im confused, but it sounded like something amazing just happened
Basically, in the final turn of the game, the player in first place traded places with the player in fourth place. How that came to pass is the living definition of serendipity.
1. Luigi rolled a ten landing on the precise spot for the switch to happen. 10% chance.
2. Toadette (1st place) was selected. 25% chance.
3. Waluigi (4th place) was selected. 33% chance.
4. The stars-for-coins switch block was selected. 14% chance.
5. I shouldn't fail to mention miracle spaces are the rarest spaces on the board. There's only 2 of those on this map. .02% chance.
If we assume order matters in the way this played out (it does as star-for-coins is only one directional), the actual odds of this turn are 2.31e-7%. OR 1/43290004.329. That's one in 43 million.
Of course, that's just the facts and the numbers. What makes this whole thing so delicious is Toadette's hubris as he declared there's no chance he could lose immediately before his swift demise AND Luigi, the orchestrator of this whole debacle, gained absolutely nothing from reversing the fortune of his what I now assume is former friend.
Which mario party is this?
laxfan727 Mario Party 6
Amazing summary Ahmed, thanks.
(Although to be fair, factoring in the miracle spaces was a bit of a misleading dramatization, as the players knew at this point where that space was, so the odds of everything happening weren't quite as marginal.)
I won't deny I have a flair for the dramatic, but I stand by my calculation. The players' prior knowledge of the space's location does not effect the probability of landing on a space. It certainly affected their choice of direction they took to land on the miracle space, but that's not relevant to calculate the odds of this kind of turn to happen. Essentially, I calculated the odds of the turn itself i.e. hitting all the correct blocks in order, then calculated the odds of Luigi's position on the board so that he could have hit the correct blocks for the perfect turn. The .02% chance specifically refers to being in that exact space. It would be the same if Luigi was one space closer and rolled a 9.
I hope I cleared up my methodology, and I want to thank you for your skepticism and do invite more. Frankly, 1 in 43 million seems a little....odd....to me (and I'm no mathematician). Every question asked of the proposed solution gets us closer to the truth, lest we grow content with ourselves.
I’d quit video games honestly if I was in that Toadette’s shoes
LOUD WARNING
I thought the biggest trade I seen was me and the cpu swaping stars when he had 6
I still say “swap everything” like that to this day because of this video 😅
Toadette ended up with 1 more coin than she began with though! :D
Waluigi is the epetomy of the phrase: " I'd rather be lucky than skilled! "
Friendship lost
Your typical endgame of a Mario Party session.
Ifunny brought me here. And instantly subbed
Some Mario Kart grade BULLSHIT right here!
Y’know what they say: Chance time *ALWAYS* screws you over
I like how the reactions get more hysterical 😂
Your pfp looks like everyone's face when that happened
@@IHateRedShells facts
I'm so happy I found this video again 😂
Somebody pissed off RNGesus. Also somebody gave a quality HJ to RNGesus.
RNGesus was in a good mood that day.
2016 election in a nutshell
Pure bullshit?
She took 11 of my Stars and my one coin.
What device does Mario use when he wants to communicate with the dead?
A Lou-ouija board.
I love this game.
The worst chance time ever!
I miss this from Mario party
Mario party ds
odds of getting cheep cheep chance on 2-star bet:
100%
and its about absolute skill *coughs*
I would be HURT after that it's basically saying fuck you right in the face and laughing at you at the same time
This is the best thing I've ever seen lmfao
They so loud that i dont even know what they're talked about but its still good
I was just playing Mario Party Jamboree, and I had to give 7 stars to Peach during the final turn
I still can't believe it
MARIO PARTY RUINS FRIENDSHIP!!!
The greatest choke of all time lmao
i wouldnt really classify that as a choke as that was out of toadettes control
That's what we call a skill issue
As much as I still liked the Mario party series, this is actually true, liked, I will argue that this series does ruined friendships, especially when it comes to chance time and other stuff.
At least Toadette got one more coin... :)
You gotta throw out the whole friend circle after that.
Take into consideration that rolling a 10 is a 10% chance, then rolling Toadette is a 25% chance, then rolling Waluigi is a 33.3% chance, then rolling swapping all stars AND coins is a 16.6% chance. Take all that into consideration and you have a play that had a 0.138% chance of happening. (Assuming I did the math right)
Tbh if I was toadette here I wouldn’t even be mad that was incredible
0:25
T E N
Everything's coming up Waluigi.
idk what the fuck is going on but i like their laughter
Hands where thrown that night !
Could've/should've just titled the video "Mario Party in a nutshell". It'd still get the point across either way.
Title change. It used to be "Mario Party Odds"
That title was WAY better.
That's so fucked up, n°4 getting all the n°1's coins, stars and dignity in a few seconds.
so essintially walugi paid 1 coin for 11 stars
wow i didn't know toadette was so gnerous
especially after she probably paid over 200 coins for hers XD
we should all strive to be so generous
1:09 R.I.P. Headphone users
And to insert WWTBAM $1Million Win Music
It's called the "Round of Miracles" for a reason
Is there a full let's play of this? I wanna see that
Game of skill.
Im here cause of cody and noel. Im just watching the old podcast and yea
What episode is it