Only a 7-day free trial is offered with your link, although the 20% off the annual subscription is offered. I’ve never had a previous free trial with them either.
Thanks for the clip and yes I agree with almost everything you say here however, you seem to be enamored with the idea that looser fiscal policies lead to beneficial outcomes for the market. I can see why. In your decades of experience you have observed that this recipe works and it does to a certain degree by distorting market forces. Then this fake artificial prosperity gets increasingly burdened by debt until and what the Neo-Keynesians thought will never happen, happens: Stagflation. Money trees don't produce value, they just print more paper a process that inflates prices and streals purchasing power from the bottom part of the trickle down pyramid towards the top part, the early receivers (full purchasing power) of the freshly printed money. That's wrong on multiple levels and you shouldn't endorse it. Thanks again. P.S. I've been a subscriber of Grant's Interest Rate Observer periodical for too long to let this point pass.
Its easy to see who's really suffering, just watch their advertising change from elitism to desperate. He mentions Hilton! A classic example look at who their target market is now! 😮
No one is buying them that’s why they still have stock from 2023 soon they will be getting stock from 2025. The same truck that was 40k 3 years ago is now 85K but you get a smaller, highly strung engine that will blow up before it reaches 50,000 miles Instead of eight that would easily do 200,000 Miles. But don’t worry, that’s good for the planet
@@ohioplayer-bl9em Particularly disastrous where EVs are concerned, because the batteries on a car that sits unused degrade badly. A lot of the vehicles that have sat for six months will need reworking if they can ever find a customer for them.
This is what happens when you approach market saturation and apathy for tech. I’m not an economist but I’m amazed at the continued expected growth in the tech industry, especially when consumers are feeling the pinch with more important costs… such as food.
Yup. There's only one thing on our planet that has infinite growth, and it is cancer. Every time someone tries to plot an infinite-growth chart for something, unless it's cancer, they're dead wrong.
I just saw a video last night where the chap was trying to tell me something earnestly while holding a mid sized mic And i couldn't listen to anything because all I could do was think of Patrick 😂
Yeah, they seem to have forgotten "cheaper, better, faster", instead they're just sucking up investment money better spent on smaller projects, even in AI. Heck, I've got an ROI AI project, it's small and niche, exactly where AI SHOULD be deployed.
@@IsyEskenazi It's possible, chatGPT is a shotgun of solutions without a problem. Go back a bit and look at "real" solutions they ignored, because they don't raise a billion dollars for speculators.
Recession in economics is 2 consecutive negative quarters of economics growth For the stock market a bear market is anything more than a 20% reduction from highs
@@TheHighborn the one I most laughed at is when analyst predict next year's market to be at an absurdly precise number like 1487.5 points. Shows the arrogance and foolishness of these charlatans. Imagine me predicting that your car's mileage will be at around 132'342 miles next year.
Yeah, *if* AI fails to pay off. It's when. AI is in a huge bubble. While it's going to be a continuing thing, companies basing all their growth on it are in for a very rude awakening.
Customers are steering clear of AI, but that's not a problem for investors. The people who are investing in AI are expecting that AI will be sold business-to-business, not to consumers. (I personally don't think that AI will succeed at that either, but I think that's why the report didn't really make a dent in share prices).
"An inverted yield curve has predicted twenty of the last seven recessions." ...aaaaaand I just spit my coffee all over my phone. Why, why do I keep drinking things when watching Patrick's videos?
Makes me think about all of those Finfluencers ''THE INEVERSE YIELD CURVE ALWAYS CREATE A RECESSION''...yeah the last 3 times, but just ignore the 1970s,1980s and 1990..
@@pencilcheck it’s not that black and white - you can hedge the currency ofcourse but because JPY was in free fall the forward/futures contracts were insanely expensive, to the point where any investment in a US asset would be unprofitable realistically. So they don’t hedge the currency, there is always a risk of currency fluctuations, it happened and this is the result. No one is ‘at fault’ here, this is par for the course and normal
It would be nice if the stock market weren't treated like a pirate casino. We end up setting good businesses on fire and treating trash businesses like gold. It's a perverse system.
I rather get rid of the system entirely, which will never happen. Best case scenario is if we tried to slow the process. My idea is to force entities that buy the stock being unable to offload them quickly. I would say and try to make it 30 days from the point of sale, ideally I think it should be longer. This should at least attract entities actually intending to hold onto it. I would also like to remove the idea of corporate personhood. Hate how companies can get all the benefits and protections a human could have without any downsides.
@@kosmosXcannonI think if a corporation commits a crime, they should be sentenced to the same punishment as an individual. Jailing a corporation just means they must pay salaries and pay contractors but are unable to perform any profitable commercial activity for the same period of sentence.
im in Japan, yesterday picking sushi(yes i mean the vinegar not the finished nigiri) and oh man there were many choices.. the default is to get the one that is a little costlier, but having somewhat of an American tonge, we wanted sweeter and I know the Japanese prefer a lighter flavor on everything.. truly contemplated with the family on the section a few minutes.
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Fantastic Summary of absolutely everything that happened last week. I Watched all the news networks and despite watching for hours they weren’t even talking about 80% of the points you covered - amazing!
I mean there is something wrong when Costco has a P/E of 50 with only 10% growth in revenue. But the biggest factor is that we are at a transitory phase for AAPL. It is no longer a growth stock but a cyclical stock. I don't think it is 100% over for them but I also think that there are a lot of stocks that are stupidly overvalued and need a product growth. Apple can raise prices by 10% to increase its revenue by 10% but it isn't an easy win. I just don't know how they can keep adding 38 billion a year in revenue growth to justify a 30 P/E. It is in 90% of every single ETF and is a significant risk to growth in portfolios and is likely going to be a laggard over the next few years as it tries to figure out what to do with its capital.
Corpos want infinite growth and zero employee expense. And they might be waking up to the idea that we can't afford their shit if they don't give us a pay increase
and yet I see unfortunate people voting for the GOP for the promise of lowering the rich guys taxes. Fantastic. There is a show about 1929 on Curiosity confirming it was caused by Wall Street greed and not applying the tools we actually know of. They really want to go back there
@@jimbojimbo6873 I want infinite growth and zero employee expense. And I might be waking up to the idea that I can't afford my shit if I don't give me a pay raise.
it was the biggest day of hedge fund buying in History when the Q's were down 6% Retail was only allowed back when the Hedgies were slated. By then we only got a 3% price reduction. As Carlin said. It's a big club and deplorable s are not in it.
Theres three full time incomes in this household and were scraping the barrel just keeling rent and bills up, much less food or having any savings. Can we admit infinite growth is a pipe dream yet?
god, even if there was prospherity in the common household infinite growth would still be fcking delusional. Obviously things have a max cap. you cant grow forever. this makes me literally so mad WDYM YOU WANT INFINITE GROWTH. ARE YOU 12???????????? OR AN ADULT?????????????????? oh my godddd
I wager if I manufactured a vehicle that was reliable, fuel efficient and didn’t require sophisticated software to operate I could sell as many as I could manufacture. 100k USD for a truck which weakest link is the computer, and is guaranteed to fail within 7 years and can be repaired only by the manufacturer putting a software fix ? AI toothbrush, AI microwave oven with a big screen? , AI ?, I’m just listening to what young people are saying.
Economics is generally regarded as a social science, although some critics of the field argue that it falls short of the definition of a science for a number of reasons, including a lack of testable hypotheses, lack of consensus, and inherent political overtones.
@Patrick, I generally watch most all of your videos, however, I'm relatively experienced and well read, so I do a lot of skipping in videos like these. So, I would watch more if you indexed chapters in your videos so I could see which chapters I'm more interested in than others and jump to those and watch. Just my two cents. Keep up your great work and I like your recent topics. You had a dry spell for me about a month ago. Thx.
While the VIX index breif reached over 60, the traded VIX futures only reached a high of about 35. The massive divergence is likely related to flaws in how the VIX index is calculated, especially when bid ask spreads widen significantly.
no. the comment is wrong. VIX 30D futures reflect the expected VIX in 30 days. The VIX is the VIX today (in 0 days). so one can expect that the futures are less volatile than the VIX itself.
In Japan somehow the red means increase and green means decrease of stock prices. So the stock prices in the thumbnail are the ones of the day after the crash, recovering.
The pumping action of markets is how wealth is extracted. It is similar to an old-fashioned water pump that you might find on a farm. One has to manipulate the mechanism up and down to extract the water.
On the down-stroke, wages are cut and people are fired and budgets are constrained. On the up-stroke, the profits generated are absorbed by the capitalist class.
That's rookie advice, unless you are using risk management with a back-tested and forward-tested edge lol. Every trader becomes a long-term investor when their play goes bad without a risk plan.
That works until it dips even lower to a point where it may not recover in the 25+ next years. If you are in a bubble you are not making any return buying at a discount. Might as well light cash on fire. I'm not buying until it's clear that the sell off is over and now on the way up. It may take months or even years to get there.
Hey Patrick, since you couldn't answer my question in the stream I'll leave it here. Japan has had very low interest in the last 25 years, maxing out at 0.5% and sometimes going as low as -0.1%. Has there been an increase in borrowing due to this? And if so why has it not had the intended effect of growing the economy?
ive read between 20-40 trillion USD in total carry trade.. and thats before the next round of bubble creation and fractional reserve lending.. A Japanese interest rate increase could totally shift global wealth to the laughed at country to the country which owns everything. I do own Japanese stocks, but its the yen that I want to own for the appreciation at this point. I live in Japan and I gotta tell you, money goes a magnitude further here than in the US.. I mean like 4x
Well let's do the math, if I borrowed a Million dollars from japan, after converting USD to Yen, at 0.5% I'd owe japan like $5k. That's not a great income for them. Sure, there's broker fees etc. But the country doesn't see that microscopic income.
The fundamental problem of the Japanese economy is the existence of a large number of zombie companies (inefficient enterprises). The Japanese government's low-interest-rate policy has allowed these zombie companies to survive for an extended period, which is actually distorting the market economy. The Japanese government has been hesitant to raise interest rates significantly for a long time due to fears of social instability. Some people often mention Japan's aging population as a significant issue, but I don't think that is the main reason. If you look at South Korea and Taiwan, their birth rates are even worse than Japan's, yet their GDP growth curves are better than Japan's.
@@HaoJunLiu-qs7xkJapan simply decided to favour the ordinary citizen as compared to favouring billionaires. By keeping interest rates low the people can afford to live comfortably even if the economy isn't growing as fast as in other countries.
Patrick, could you please do a video on the current risk / reward of shorting the Nikkei, given the correlation between the Nikkei and USDJPY, and the falling population. The carry trade of $21t will take years to unwind, and as soon as the Fed cuts there will be PANIC and the yen will rocket while the Nikkei plunges. Which for foreign investors means a compound return. Meanwhile, those already invested in Japan stocks will see exponential losses. I have never seen such a lopsided, predictable trade. The yen is likely to go to 80 while the Nikkei goes down to 25k
We are not giving this guy enough credit. This video was absolutely amazing, there are few videos I actually appreciate, but this one I truly do, thank you.
It's just desperate trend chasing that investors don't seem to be noticing or caring about. They tried crypto, NFTs, Metaverse. They are no longer making useful products, just inventing new fields to keep the profit share up. Unless they can find a bunch of use cases that in some way mitigate the enormous costs then they'll have to move on again or to hope that the monopolistic behaviours that ensure their positions aren't challenged.
@@aaronmoravekberkshire sold $50bn worth of apple shares… $1bn sold would alarm the market, Buffet absolutely did move the market price for Apple by selling SO much. People will have seen it and immediately started to cut their positions.
Warren Buffet is smart enough to get out of a position without impacting the price. The same thing goes for buying. This is done by the volume of shares bought or sold.
Lots going on in Japan showing govt intervention won't turn around the economy. For ex. the govt pushed big business to raise wages in order to increase consumption & spur the economy. However, only ~30% of workers are employed by large corps... 70% of people work for SME's. Very few SME's raised wages. And over half the SME's in Japan are labeled "zombie companies" - operating at a loss & receiving subsidies to stay afloat. Japan's economy is MUCH worse than it looks.
The Japanese economy is highly integrated with the United States. If anyone remembers. The Japanese were one of the first countries to start selling treasury bonds. Years ago. Since then there hasn’t been much interest in U.S. treasuries. The Dollar hegemony is a monopoly and therefore unfit for purpose intended. It gives the U.S. an unfair advantage to bully other countries
of course not, if a tiny bit of interest rate change causes this much chaos, its a clear sign of how unstable the market is... next time the reaction to something stupid will be just enough over the edge to start liquidating a bunch of players and create a vicious cycle
I'm not sure that's completely true especially if the price returns to "normal" directly afterwards. Anytime a major security has such a massive adjustment, it's going to cause a major move in markets.
@@LiverpoolReject it returned to "normal" delusion because the spikes were not big enough to start wrecking havoc... you really think trillions of assets managed in algorithms care what caused the event? they will liquidate or do smoething stupid making other bots do something stupid and after 30 minutes you have another memorable day in fintech
So many nuggets of wisdom in this vid. Excellent topic, super relevant. I wish you were able to release videos like this every week! Thank you for making this. ❤
I bought more NVDA at $92 at the open Monday 9:30 AM, while most were going 😧. I’ve been doing this business too long, it’s too easy for me. Yes I’m a millionaire.
Good for you man, I am playing for 2 years so I am novice and I concur, that recent drops were investment occasion. Last year I made good money on tech stocks, this is my area of work. I was lucky. All the best.
Bought a few thousand shares of PLTR Monday morning. Sold today. Up about 33%. I will say it's likely both Matt and I have lost a few hundred thousand dollars over the years, but you will make it back and then some if you play it smart!
"Us inflation has cooled and prices are no longer rising." Really? The US has zero inflation? You usually do a very good job presenting your info. Might want to rethink that statement.
Monthly headline inflation, such as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (in the US) is a measure of the **current** behaviour of the price of goods and services. The latest CPI report showed a 0.1% DECREASE in prices over the last month, which means that prices **are** no longer rising - Patrick being absolutely right here.
@dexterjau3 how does a 0.1% decrease proves anything after the trend of inflation has been going disruptive for months and the current geopolitical factors can rush it up easily. Patrick is not wrong but this number its just make up for a pig swimming in mud.
Housing where I live is still up over 100% from 2015, if something doesn't effect that number by helping it go down I don't see how this helps or hurts me.
You are talking like an ignorant person. The CEO salary may be high but is insignificant to the wages of all the workers. Just like you can't lose much weight by cutting off your head, you can lose much more by trimming the fat from the entire body (the labor cost)
We have been in a recession for several quarters. Stop saying that we could get into a recession, that is gaslighting. Chengxing the definition of recession doesn’t change that we are in one
This was an important video B. Had everything. carry trades, VIX, AI, Japan, Buffet, the S&P 7. Nice job. Bring back the red velvet jacket tho. I’m bullish on that jacket.
@@tripplefives1402y'know what, I'll bite. Most people in the kind of straights that the original commenter is in do not have the funds or opportunities necessary to just move to a city with a lower cost of living. That is to say that if you're living in a situation where you can barely afford your current rent, then you generally can't save for the cost of moving and the down payment on a new lease. Even if you can set some money aside, that amount will often get wiped out by surprise bills, medical emergencies and the like (especially medical emergencies; if you cant afford rent you generally cant afford good health insurance that will cover everything you need). Another problem beyond the raw expense of moving is having a job lined up to support you once you move there. Remote work is rare across most sectors of the economy and you wont be able to have the same knowledge of the job market in other cities as you have in your own, so it's far from a guaranteed thing. On the flip side, getting a job in a city with a lower cost of living can be a massive financial boon and may come with support for moving (if you can negotiate that in the terms for your hiring), making it a very attractive option if you can line it up.
Go to Colorado or New York and tell them you're a Venezuelan refugee (I'm still confused what war all of the people at the border are running from) and they'll give you a free hotel and money
One thing i have been wondering from following the quarterly reports from basically all of the major banks is what is driving them to set aside extra money for defaults
With markets tumbling, inflation still high , the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, l'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $400k bond/stock portfolio.
Use PATRICK activation code at nordpass.com/patrick to get a NordPass Business 3-month free trial. No credit card is required.
Only a 7-day free trial is offered with your link, although the 20% off the annual subscription is offered. I’ve never had a previous free trial with them either.
Thank you
Hi, could you please share the references for your video
Thanks for the clip and yes I agree with almost everything you say here however, you seem to be enamored with the idea that looser fiscal policies lead to beneficial outcomes for the market.
I can see why.
In your decades of experience you have observed that this recipe works and it does to a certain degree by distorting market forces. Then this fake artificial prosperity gets increasingly burdened by debt until and what the Neo-Keynesians thought will never happen, happens: Stagflation.
Money trees don't produce value, they just print more paper a process that inflates prices and streals purchasing power from the bottom part of the trickle down pyramid towards the top part, the early receivers (full purchasing power) of the freshly printed money.
That's wrong on multiple levels and you shouldn't endorse it.
Thanks again.
P.S. I've been a subscriber of Grant's Interest Rate Observer periodical for too long to let this point pass.
Its easy to see who's really suffering, just watch their advertising change from elitism to desperate. He mentions Hilton! A classic example look at who their target market is now! 😮
Hard to consume much when you spend most your coin on rent, utility bills and food
I see car lots full of vehicles that cost 50-100k who tf is buying those cars?? I can hardly get new tires and keep my tank full.
@@ohioplayer-bl9emdebt. The answer is almost always debt.
No one is buying them that’s why they still have stock from 2023 soon they will be getting stock from 2025. The same truck that was 40k 3 years ago is now 85K but you get a smaller, highly strung engine that will blow up before it reaches 50,000 miles Instead of eight that would easily do 200,000 Miles. But don’t worry, that’s good for the planet
@@ohioplayer-bl9em Particularly disastrous where EVs are concerned, because the batteries on a car that sits unused degrade badly. A lot of the vehicles that have sat for six months will need reworking if they can ever find a customer for them.
That IS your consumption
This is what happens when you approach market saturation and apathy for tech. I’m not an economist but I’m amazed at the continued expected growth in the tech industry, especially when consumers are feeling the pinch with more important costs… such as food.
Yup. There's only one thing on our planet that has infinite growth, and it is cancer. Every time someone tries to plot an infinite-growth chart for something, unless it's cancer, they're dead wrong.
and rents, and supplies, and maintenance if you own, and the cost of help, and.........everything is going up, and continues to go UP. AND no deals.,
I wasn't as engaged as you didn’t hold the mic
I just saw a video last night where the chap was trying to tell me something earnestly while holding a mid sized mic
And i couldn't listen to anything because all I could do was think of Patrick 😂
I’m glad someone is talking about this. I just can’t relate to someone who doesn’t hold the microphone whilst addressing the camera.
@@RichWithTech you mean staring at me without blinking
not nearly enough rap news
I saw a statistic that says that flaming RUclips thumbnail with dudes with their mouths wide open are on all time highs.
Lmfaooo 😂😂. I won't be surprised if Patrick does this
B... B... BUH... 😆 BWAH HAHAHA
HAHAHA HAHAHA PERRRRRFECT
They're definitely flaming all right
As the CEO of red circles and arrows incorporated, I can confirm.
They look like they are getting it in the arse by the mysterious invisible algorithm
“Its not yet obvious how the big tech firms plan to make back all the money they’re spending on AI”.
Fucking EXACTLY
They're waiting on that ChatGPT version that Sam Altman said would tell them how to make OpenAI profitable. Might be waiting for a while...
Yeah, they seem to have forgotten "cheaper, better, faster", instead they're just sucking up investment money better spent on smaller projects, even in AI. Heck, I've got an ROI AI project, it's small and niche, exactly where AI SHOULD be deployed.
meanwhile nvidia
make a... good product? that actually works?
@@IsyEskenazi It's possible, chatGPT is a shotgun of solutions without a problem. Go back a bit and look at "real" solutions they ignored, because they don't raise a billion dollars for speculators.
i just got a load of junk food and now i can watch patrick boyle talk about recent stuff. life is good. saturday night sorted.
Tacos, baby! :) Maybe a pizza too... :)
Hehe boi
What food did you have?
Totally agree, best way to spend a weekend teatime 👍
Love Patrick sensei and his deadpan humour
What kind of junk food we talking about?
The GS prediction of 25% instead of 15% is taken from the deep abyss of their random number generator.
It's not a recession until we call it a recession, so all we have to do is not call it a recession and there won't be a recession.
Recession in economics is 2 consecutive negative quarters of economics growth
For the stock market a bear market is anything more than a 20% reduction from highs
Pretty sure the 2008 recession didn’t get called a recession untill a year after it already started
When are ever the numbers not made up?
@@TheHighborn the one I most laughed at is when analyst predict next year's market to be at an absurdly precise number like 1487.5 points. Shows the arrogance and foolishness of these charlatans.
Imagine me predicting that your car's mileage will be at around 132'342 miles next year.
Yeah, *if* AI fails to pay off. It's when. AI is in a huge bubble. While it's going to be a continuing thing, companies basing all their growth on it are in for a very rude awakening.
Customers are steering clear of AI, but that's not a problem for investors. The people who are investing in AI are expecting that AI will be sold business-to-business, not to consumers. (I personally don't think that AI will succeed at that either, but I think that's why the report didn't really make a dent in share prices).
Boomer POV
@@McB1uffin I'm a boomer and completely disagree with that fool...
Robot tellers with slightly more human sounding voices…. And we will just wait to get forwarded to a human
My Dr. is ALREADY using A.I. to be more productive, as she "patiently" explained (hey, I made a Patrick pun). You are correct: bus. to bus.
"An inverted yield curve has predicted twenty of the last seven recessions."
...aaaaaand I just spit my coffee all over my phone. Why, why do I keep drinking things when watching Patrick's videos?
We’ve had two recently that lead to nothing
That's good help reset Bitcoin for a stronger bullrun...Later I load up on bearish ETFs
@@jamesmcpherson3924 " twenty of the last seven". That was the joke.
Math yo 🤣
Makes me think about all of those Finfluencers ''THE INEVERSE YIELD CURVE ALWAYS CREATE A RECESSION''...yeah the last 3 times, but just ignore the 1970s,1980s and 1990..
Best rap channel
Which drugs can give me this guys aura?
@@nas8326 kratom + low interest rates
@nas8326 couple shots of whiskey will do the trick
😂
So thats what it called these days 😂
Where is that rap battle lol 😭
2:23 A background in rap *and* bushcraft gives Patrick the unique edge over other financial experts.
"An inverted yield curve has probably predicted about 20 of the last, 7 recessions."
That is the humor that got me hooked on this channel.
Only 20 of the last 7? Rookie numbers!!!!!
But it's not even his joke
The lateral results of AI researched data. What is that?
I don't understand. In other words, people panic over the inverted yield curve when it only coincides with a recession one out of three times?
I'm just watched that part and came to the comments to say exactly what you already said!
The dry humour gets me every time 😂
Japan is not to blame, its investment firms playing around.
And the governments incentivizing investment firms with monetary experiments.
it is always hedge funds, investment firms, and banks.
if it was urudashiis going home small pairs like NZD-JPY get smashed (see also the 1980s), so yeah, ocr arb is a thing but difficult to attribute that
@@pencilcheck it’s not that black and white - you can hedge the currency ofcourse but because JPY was in free fall the forward/futures contracts were insanely expensive, to the point where any investment in a US asset would be unprofitable realistically. So they don’t hedge the currency, there is always a risk of currency fluctuations, it happened and this is the result.
No one is ‘at fault’ here, this is par for the course and normal
Of course it is, what in the world are you smoking? MMT apologists have some smooth, smooth brains
I really look forward to and enjoy your videos. You are a calming neutral voice amongst screaming and chaos.
It would be nice if the stock market weren't treated like a pirate casino. We end up setting good businesses on fire and treating trash businesses like gold. It's a perverse system.
I rather get rid of the system entirely, which will never happen. Best case scenario is if we tried to slow the process. My idea is to force entities that buy the stock being unable to offload them quickly. I would say and try to make it 30 days from the point of sale, ideally I think it should be longer. This should at least attract entities actually intending to hold onto it.
I would also like to remove the idea of corporate personhood. Hate how companies can get all the benefits and protections a human could have without any downsides.
@@kosmosXcannon brilliant input
Traders:
"Yarhar fiddle detee...
Being a pirate is alright to be.
Do what you want cause a pirate is free.
You are a pirate."
But that's what it is! For ordinary people, but the elites have insider info. But im sure deep down you already know that😮
@@kosmosXcannonI think if a corporation commits a crime, they should be sentenced to the same punishment as an individual. Jailing a corporation just means they must pay salaries and pay contractors but are unable to perform any profitable commercial activity for the same period of sentence.
I’m happy you’re back in the book room. I was not a fan of the stock market room.
He lost his job in the stock crash obviously.
The stock market room could use one of those old timey stock tickers.
@@anglaismoyen
And is making a nice living thank you very much. 😊
The trick is finding the proper rice vinegar. Is what gives that special flavour and stickyness to good sushi.
im in Japan, yesterday picking sushi(yes i mean the vinegar not the finished nigiri) and oh man there were many choices.. the default is to get the one that is a little costlier, but having somewhat of an American tonge, we wanted sweeter and I know the Japanese prefer a lighter flavor on everything.. truly contemplated with the family on the section a few minutes.
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Wow. Congratulations, You deserve it.
Fantastic Summary of absolutely everything that happened last week. I Watched all the news networks and despite watching for hours they weren’t even talking about 80% of the points you covered - amazing!
Considering the U.S consumer has surpassed the credit card debt levels of 2008 crash..it's a matter of time until the economy is in recession
Which month did we exit the recession that started in March 2020?
If Apple without AI looks like Coca Cola, why is Coca Cola not investing in AI to become Apple?
They are, don’t you remember AI coke flavour?
The notion that Apple must continue to grow profits is freaking wild. What's wrong with netting $265M/day in profits?
@@Joe-nb3fsit's not enough for people whose retinas have been replaced with dollar signs.
Inflation is the big concern, @@Joe-nb3fs. You'd be pretty happy earning $10,000/year in 1924, but probably wouldn't like it so much today.
@@NocebonoboYou can still buy it where I live
I mean there is something wrong when Costco has a P/E of 50 with only 10% growth in revenue. But the biggest factor is that we are at a transitory phase for AAPL. It is no longer a growth stock but a cyclical stock. I don't think it is 100% over for them but I also think that there are a lot of stocks that are stupidly overvalued and need a product growth. Apple can raise prices by 10% to increase its revenue by 10% but it isn't an easy win. I just don't know how they can keep adding 38 billion a year in revenue growth to justify a 30 P/E. It is in 90% of every single ETF and is a significant risk to growth in portfolios and is likely going to be a laggard over the next few years as it tries to figure out what to do with its capital.
Corpos want infinite growth and zero employee expense. And they might be waking up to the idea that we can't afford their shit if they don't give us a pay increase
Don't worry, they'll race to the bottom waiting for everyone else to collapse first.
Skill issue
Speak for yourself
and yet I see unfortunate people voting for the GOP for the promise of lowering the rich guys taxes. Fantastic. There is a show about 1929 on Curiosity confirming it was caused by Wall Street greed and not applying the tools we actually know of. They really want to go back there
@@jimbojimbo6873 I want infinite growth and zero employee expense. And I might be waking up to the idea that I can't afford my shit if I don't give me a pay raise.
The brokerage outage was keeping me from buying not selling 😂.
it was the biggest day of hedge fund buying in History when the Q's were down 6% Retail was only allowed back when the Hedgies were slated. By then we only got a 3% price reduction. As Carlin said. It's a big club and deplorable s are not in it.
Theres three full time incomes in this household and were scraping the barrel just keeling rent and bills up, much less food or having any savings. Can we admit infinite growth is a pipe dream yet?
What kinda house you live in ? A mega mansion?. 😂. Im not rich but i have 1.5 jobs and im quite alright on foid n transportation
god, even if there was prospherity in the common household infinite growth would still be fcking delusional. Obviously things have a max cap. you cant grow forever. this makes me literally so mad WDYM YOU WANT INFINITE GROWTH. ARE YOU 12???????????? OR AN ADULT?????????????????? oh my godddd
Im assuming youre single? 1.5 for one person means a family of 4 must have the equivalent of almost 5 jobs @o.c.g.m9426
@@o.c.g.m9426probably a big family I guess?
I firmly believe that 50% of the reason I show up for a Patrick Boyle video is his sense of humor.
OH its 95% for me
Indeed..
I hope he has a lot of kids because that is wasted dad energy if not.
20 of the last 7 recessions!
You have to be quick or Irish.
I wager if I manufactured a vehicle that was reliable, fuel efficient and didn’t require sophisticated software to operate I could sell as many as I could manufacture.
100k USD for a truck which weakest link is the computer, and is guaranteed to fail within 7 years and can be repaired only by the manufacturer putting a software fix ?
AI toothbrush, AI microwave oven with a big screen? , AI ?, I’m just listening to what young people are saying.
I'm mostly laughing at chatgpt and trying to explain to my mom how this isn't the future
What, AI? I just got in to NFT's, hold up guys!
I'm cornering the Tulip market, I'll triumph anyday now.
@@Adelina-293see you on the top!
What's an nft?😊
Tulips to the moon!
Perfect breakdown Patrick, thank you
he forgot toyota's engines blowing up
@@luciaconn6788 😂
That is an understatement about how interesting the Japanese markets going, Patrick. We are living in very interesting times. 😁
Economics is generally regarded as a social science, although some critics of the field argue that it falls short of the definition of a science for a number of reasons, including a lack of testable hypotheses, lack of consensus, and inherent political overtones.
economics is humanities disguised as statistics
The idea that social scientists are trying to claim that economics doesn't reach their rigorous definition of a science is hysterical. 🤣
@@dawnfire82 i dont think you read the comment properly
Thanks Patrick for your excellent videos! Please keep on your good work!
The Big Short 2 is just waiting for the AI bubble to collapse completely before they release the movie.
It will be called "The Big Ai"
0:08 You are showing a picture of a rebound... In Japan RED is a good color, GREEN is the bad color.
@Patrick, I generally watch most all of your videos, however, I'm relatively experienced and well read, so I do a lot of skipping in videos like these. So, I would watch more if you indexed chapters in your videos so I could see which chapters I'm more interested in than others and jump to those and watch. Just my two cents. Keep up your great work and I like your recent topics. You had a dry spell for me about a month ago. Thx.
While the VIX index breif reached over 60, the traded VIX futures only reached a high of about 35. The massive divergence is likely related to flaws in how the VIX index is calculated, especially when bid ask spreads widen significantly.
Yup
It hasn’t acted right for a few years now.
It's a pity Patrick does not elaborate a bit more when he ties in charts like the VIX to depict a trend or support his position.
no. the comment is wrong. VIX 30D futures reflect the expected VIX in 30 days. The VIX is the VIX today (in 0 days). so one can expect that the futures are less volatile than the VIX itself.
@@vprwave He was using the VIX as intended: Measuring fear
Please do one on the current carry trade situation in Turkey. Interest rates are close to 50% with a stabilized exchange rate
In Japan somehow the red means increase and green means decrease of stock prices. So the
stock prices in the thumbnail are the ones of the day after the crash, recovering.
Great analysis, thanks. Would be awesome if you could leave the links for the various articles you discuss in your videos.
And what role does over-leveraging play in all this?
We will never know as there is no transparency in the casino for the rich at all...
I would love to attend Patrick's classes in the University setting....
Even assignments would be exciting and challenging..
The pumping action of markets is how wealth is extracted. It is similar to an old-fashioned water pump that you might find on a farm. One has to manipulate the mechanism up and down to extract the water.
On the down-stroke, wages are cut and people are fired and budgets are constrained. On the up-stroke, the profits generated are absorbed by the capitalist class.
Excellent video yet again Mr. Boyle.
Very well written on the effects of the yen carry trade on the US stock market.
Thanks for the magnificent content Mr. Boyle..
20k😂 Whats that currency man
@@blackkodiaq9878v it's $1.25 USD
@@blackkodiaq9878 It is equivalent to $1.2557 dollars 😂😅
Indonesian Rupiah
@@blackkodiaq9878Shut up 😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@blackkodiaq9878 Indian rupees. I think that come out to five dollars... :)
21:10 This is the gold that keeps me coming back
Pretty funny that the stock market erased most of its losses from the sell off already
The wealthy needed a quick sale to grab even more.
Yeah, that's not true.
@@xvx4848yeah it is definitely true
@@xvx4848not even close
Wild
Man I remember when you only had a few hundred subscribers. Congrats
I bought during the sell off
Sell offs are just discount prices if you believe in the stock
Do you pray them, or just believe and that's it?
That's rookie advice, unless you are using risk management with a back-tested and forward-tested edge lol. Every trader becomes a long-term investor when their play goes bad without a risk plan.
That works until it dips even lower to a point where it may not recover in the 25+ next years. If you are in a bubble you are not making any return buying at a discount. Might as well light cash on fire. I'm not buying until it's clear that the sell off is over and now on the way up. It may take months or even years to get there.
@@HyperMario64lol yeah of course just buy when you know the stocks will go up. Great advice.
You people are cowards and will never make real money
There is an update in the Adani Hindenburg situation, would be nice if you could cover.
Hey Patrick, since you couldn't answer my question in the stream I'll leave it here. Japan has had very low interest in the last 25 years, maxing out at 0.5% and sometimes going as low as -0.1%. Has there been an increase in borrowing due to this? And if so why has it not had the intended effect of growing the economy?
ive read between 20-40 trillion USD in total carry trade.. and thats before the next round of bubble creation and fractional reserve lending.. A Japanese interest rate increase could totally shift global wealth to the laughed at country to the country which owns everything. I do own Japanese stocks, but its the yen that I want to own for the appreciation at this point. I live in Japan and I gotta tell you, money goes a magnitude further here than in the US.. I mean like 4x
Well let's do the math, if I borrowed a Million dollars from japan, after converting USD to Yen, at 0.5% I'd owe japan like $5k. That's not a great income for them. Sure, there's broker fees etc. But the country doesn't see that microscopic income.
As it turns out, Keynes was wrong. Very wrong.
The fundamental problem of the Japanese economy is the existence of a large number of zombie companies (inefficient enterprises). The Japanese government's low-interest-rate policy has allowed these zombie companies to survive for an extended period, which is actually distorting the market economy. The Japanese government has been hesitant to raise interest rates significantly for a long time due to fears of social instability.
Some people often mention Japan's aging population as a significant issue, but I don't think that is the main reason. If you look at South Korea and Taiwan, their birth rates are even worse than Japan's, yet their GDP growth curves are better than Japan's.
@@HaoJunLiu-qs7xkJapan simply decided to favour the ordinary citizen as compared to favouring billionaires. By keeping interest rates low the people can afford to live comfortably even if the economy isn't growing as fast as in other countries.
Excellent education here, Patrick. So many points to consider!
Patrick did you ask the Crocodile of Wall Street about all of this?
Patrick, could you please do a video on the current risk / reward of shorting the Nikkei, given the correlation between the Nikkei and USDJPY, and the falling population. The carry trade of $21t will take years to unwind, and as soon as the Fed cuts there will be PANIC and the yen will rocket while the Nikkei plunges. Which for foreign investors means a compound return. Meanwhile, those already invested in Japan stocks will see exponential losses. I have never seen such a lopsided, predictable trade. The yen is likely to go to 80 while the Nikkei goes down to 25k
Anyone else remember when Patrick spoke only about rap?
I'm still curious what BRICS is up to. It's reducing greenback importance
LMAO the next video recommended by RUclips is a video from Gr*ham St*phens predicting economic apocalypse.
We are not giving this guy enough credit. This video was absolutely amazing, there are few videos I actually appreciate, but this one I truly do, thank you.
Pinning hopes on AI is the dumbest thing these companies could do. No one likes AI and the majority don't want it.
It’s also not very profitable for the massive upfront cost.
It's just desperate trend chasing that investors don't seem to be noticing or caring about. They tried crypto, NFTs, Metaverse. They are no longer making useful products, just inventing new fields to keep the profit share up. Unless they can find a bunch of use cases that in some way mitigate the enormous costs then they'll have to move on again or to hope that the monopolistic behaviours that ensure their positions aren't challenged.
I think they fooled themselves with their own advertisements.
Cope it will take unnecessary lobbysm jobs
@@ucantSQ metaverse.... only heard investors friends talking about it.
Tak!
Heard Warren buffet sold stocks worth billions of dollars. Didn't that do anything to the stock market?
It should be effecting apple, but as big as Berkshire is, it doesn't mean that Berkshire itself can take the market
But even for Apple (Buffett's largest holding), they own less than 5% of the market cap. Berkshire is big but the overall stock market is much bigger.
@@aaronmoravekberkshire sold $50bn worth of apple shares… $1bn sold would alarm the market, Buffet absolutely did move the market price for Apple by selling SO much. People will have seen it and immediately started to cut their positions.
Warren Buffet is smart enough to get out of a position without impacting the price. The same thing goes for buying. This is done by the volume of shares bought or sold.
He started to sell in the last few months, it wasn't all of it, all at once, suddenly.
Love your content - very educational!
Question: is your book on statistics for the trading floor a good starter to understand stock statistics better?
Woo! I caught a premiere!!
Lots going on in Japan showing govt intervention won't turn around the economy. For ex. the govt pushed big business to raise wages in order to increase consumption & spur the economy. However, only ~30% of workers are employed by large corps... 70% of people work for SME's. Very few SME's raised wages. And over half the SME's in Japan are labeled "zombie companies" - operating at a loss & receiving subsidies to stay afloat. Japan's economy is MUCH worse than it looks.
Can you get a toothbrush with blockchain included?
That was nicely nuanced.
With all the dry humor, you really gotta listen to everything 😂
First time viewer. Very informative reporting and commentary on financials.
The Japanese economy is highly integrated with the United States. If anyone remembers. The Japanese were one of the first countries to start selling treasury bonds. Years ago. Since then there hasn’t been much interest in U.S. treasuries. The Dollar hegemony is a monopoly and therefore unfit for purpose intended. It gives the U.S. an unfair advantage to bully other countries
I'm at Schwab and was fully cash with half a motion to buy. Couldn't log on... Whatever I figure i'll get another chance at the 200 day
Third largest Economy? Didnt Japan fall below Germany?
Yes
Isnt germany's economy in the drain?
@@erbalumkan369 yes but it is still higher than Japan even when their population is lower.
Thank you very much Patrick. You OG!
of course not, if a tiny bit of interest rate change causes this much chaos, its a clear sign of how unstable the market is...
next time the reaction to something stupid will be just enough over the edge to start liquidating a bunch of players and create a vicious cycle
Nothing to do with interest rates, that's the dangling toy they try to distract with.
I'm not sure that's completely true especially if the price returns to "normal" directly afterwards. Anytime a major security has such a massive adjustment, it's going to cause a major move in markets.
@@noanyobiseniss7462 if you don't think interest rates effect markets, you don't understand markets.
@@LiverpoolReject Keep believing what they tell you, that works until it doesn't.
@@LiverpoolReject it returned to "normal" delusion because the spikes were not big enough to start wrecking havoc... you really think trillions of assets managed in algorithms care what caused the event? they will liquidate or do smoething stupid making other bots do something stupid and after 30 minutes you have another memorable day in fintech
So many nuggets of wisdom in this vid. Excellent topic, super relevant. I wish you were able to release videos like this every week! Thank you for making this. ❤
I bought more NVDA at $92 at the open Monday 9:30 AM, while most were going 😧.
I’ve been doing this business too long, it’s too easy for me. Yes I’m a millionaire.
Good for you man, I am playing for 2 years so I am novice and I concur, that recent drops were investment occasion.
Last year I made good money on tech stocks, this is my area of work. I was lucky. All the best.
Bought a few thousand shares of PLTR Monday morning. Sold today. Up about 33%. I will say it's likely both Matt and I have lost a few hundred thousand dollars over the years, but you will make it back and then some if you play it smart!
I think you are a fraud. You also probably wear a tiny hat
So what would happen in Japan if the government announced their intention to significantly decrease government debt? Wouldn't the currency strengthen?
New Sub. Am I allowed to blink while I watch the videos? 😆
Obviously not.
Don't dare
thanks for bringing the economic news.
listening to this channel is so relaxing.
"Us inflation has cooled and prices are no longer rising." Really? The US has zero inflation? You usually do a very good job presenting your info. Might want to rethink that statement.
On a whole. No one cares about how much milk is at your local krogers.
@@plaidchuck That's literally where the CPI numbers come from.
@@tripplefives1402let em keep that thought process. Will be less people to deal with in the future
Monthly headline inflation, such as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (in the US) is a measure of the **current** behaviour of the price of goods and services. The latest CPI report showed a 0.1% DECREASE in prices over the last month, which means that prices **are** no longer rising - Patrick being absolutely right here.
@dexterjau3 how does a 0.1% decrease proves anything after the trend of inflation has been going disruptive for months and the current geopolitical factors can rush it up easily. Patrick is not wrong but this number its just make up for a pig swimming in mud.
Housing where I live is still up over 100% from 2015, if something doesn't effect that number by helping it go down I don't see how this helps or hurts me.
I feel like his eyes are staring into my soul
He never blinks!
Hopefully nVidia has their revenue increase by 800% in the next report to validate their market cap.
My stonks plummeted then. Now it's back up and better than before.
For now 😉
You are talking like an ignorant person. The CEO salary may be high but is insignificant to the wages of all the workers. Just like you can't lose much weight by cutting off your head, you can lose much more by trimming the fat from the entire body (the labor cost)
Very interesting. Thank you.
My Playlist on Spotify "Patrick Boyle Hip Hop" with the most influental Hip Hop songs of all time. Suggest some banging tunes, to make it the GOAT!
definitely "Bartier Cardi" - Cardi B
Saggy denim
bad and boujee 🫡🫡
I'm good luv, enjoy.
All added, nice
Excellent summary of the current state of affairs.
We have been in a recession for several quarters. Stop saying that we could get into a recession, that is gaslighting. Chengxing the definition of recession doesn’t change that we are in one
This was an important video B. Had everything. carry trades, VIX, AI, Japan, Buffet, the S&P 7. Nice job. Bring back the red velvet jacket tho. I’m bullish on that jacket.
Just waiting for the S&P to drop another 15% and I'm going all in!
Wow, fire colour in the Patrick Boyle's thumbnail!
I can't afford to pay $1200mo for an apartment. I'm almost homeless
Why be homeless in a big city when you can move to a small city and pay $400 in rent and drive to work.
@@tripplefives1402rage bait
@@tripplefives1402y'know what, I'll bite.
Most people in the kind of straights that the original commenter is in do not have the funds or opportunities necessary to just move to a city with a lower cost of living.
That is to say that if you're living in a situation where you can barely afford your current rent, then you generally can't save for the cost of moving and the down payment on a new lease. Even if you can set some money aside, that amount will often get wiped out by surprise bills, medical emergencies and the like (especially medical emergencies; if you cant afford rent you generally cant afford good health insurance that will cover everything you need).
Another problem beyond the raw expense of moving is having a job lined up to support you once you move there. Remote work is rare across most sectors of the economy and you wont be able to have the same knowledge of the job market in other cities as you have in your own, so it's far from a guaranteed thing.
On the flip side, getting a job in a city with a lower cost of living can be a massive financial boon and may come with support for moving (if you can negotiate that in the terms for your hiring), making it a very attractive option if you can line it up.
Go to Colorado or New York and tell them you're a Venezuelan refugee (I'm still confused what war all of the people at the border are running from) and they'll give you a free hotel and money
@@tripplefives1402 Nonsense. There is no worthy apartment near $400 anywhere in any city in America. Name one.
Bravo! Nice performance, Patrick.
Technical correction. No panic.
You can never predict a recession since they don't happen for any reason at all.
One thing i have been wondering from following the quarterly reports from basically all of the major banks is what is driving them to set aside extra money for defaults
Stocks are meaningless and don't serve the common people
lmao
Stocks are how companies raise money to operate, at their core function, so they do matter to ordinary people.
I’ve got stocks, and as an ordinary person, I earn money for nothing.
Stocks have done very well for me and I’m certainly not rich, it’s not even that hard. Read a few books, get informed and go for it.
@@lakedistrict9450 you make money for, hopefully, taking a calculated risk.
That new subscribe sound is really jarring.
Longtime viewer, thoroughly enjoy the videos.
So , hear me out, trickle down economics might not actually work longer than the next closing bell?
It doesn't work at all.
@@EvoraGT430 It quite literally *can't* work, in fact!
With markets tumbling, inflation still high , the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, l'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $400k bond/stock portfolio.