The Global Solvency Crisis | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv
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- Опубликовано: 10 сен 2024
- This week Real Vision use Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at how a solvency crisis will emerge out of the hope phase of this economic shock, in a wide-ranging interview with Real Vision’s CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal. Government accommodation has helped to offset the initial liquidity shock, but balance sheets have been impaired at the household, corporate and government level.
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Rodger, Thank you for this wonderful interview with Raoul Pal. The macro analysis explained quite clearly how the " 4 D's" are correlated. ....Greatly appreciated.......Godspeed....
Beautiful deleveraging = Debt write off
Amazing to watch a finance/econ channel like this where the host isn't an insecure, self-serving huckster. Clear, rational and helpful - this is what such channels should aspire to. Definite follow.
Raoul's bandwidth needs a bailout lol
That's what happens in a country without tax 😂
Go look at Little Cayman on Google Maps, he's on satellite.
lol
He has to wait for Elon to get Starlink online
5G ? LOL
love the clarity in hedging both inflation and deflation. One caveat that I wish they would have hammered home more is time horizon- making sure to have enough liquidity to weather the storm, because both gold and bitcoin can easily go through periods sell off in order to meet liquidity requirements.
Exactly. I'm considering taking a short term cash position for this very reason. Inflation/deflation will not happen as quickly or as dramatically as a potential Bitcoin/Gold selloff, and you can multiply your position in the dip.
I’m scared shitless now, thanks for that Raoul. Great analysis
Love hearing these two talk Macro! Great Macro Dialogue!
Thank you Rodger & Raoul. One of the only channels talking about the actual financial causes here
😁👍
I'm trying to get this data into my mathematical bubble wave cycle model. Click my face to check it out ✌️🐻
Thanks to both of you, love Raoul... Real Vision has helped me so much, I'm gonna subscribe to plus going forward.
This is a great expansion on Brent's 'Dollar Milkshake'.
Think I'm going to be moving into Gold for primary, Silver, Bitcoin, and Dollar Forex for speculations. Have been accumulating hard assets for awhile but I want to get my money working for me again.
Excellent! I love Raoul's ideas! Thank you!
I love Raoul Pal´s macro clarity.
I've learned so much watching your videos. Why isn't this stuff taught in school? Thank you!!
even economy school doesnt teach it, you hv to be in it to know what is really going on.
school is to keep him rich and you poor
I love this particular interview. I watched it a few times. That's why I subscribed to the REAL VISION.
Great interview! Can Raol Pal get a better webcam, please?
Karlis Treijs its crisis, everybody has financial teoubles
Really enjoyed this discussion guys, very informative, detailed yet succinct at the same time...A fantastic summary of where things are at in the financial world, great for experienced or novice traders/investors. Thank you Raoul and Rodger.
💛💚💙🧡 Raoul is a beast. Long Bitcoin, Long Gold! Long live the Free Market 💛💚💙🧡
Outstanding Presentation, Thank you!
Thank you Raoul, I was trying to figure out which currencies will get weakened, since all major banks are printing but the FED is printing the most in absolute terms. You explained beautifully how the FED would need to print so much more than it is currently printing to weaken the dollar against the euro, sterling etc Your videos are the best!!
I've found myself in the smart part of RUclips.
No I’m still here
i thought it didnt exist
If that branding helps you by their services, sure why not?
Gentlemen, an indication of the date each video was recorded would be much appreciated.
You can see that in the notes revealed if you touch the tiny 'pyramid' below the video on the right, when not in the full screen mode (on a pocket size screen). (Turn the pyramid upside down)
Thank you for the update guys. Appreciated
Always enjoy Raoul. Thanks gents.
If I could have a beer with any person in the world, Raoul Pal would probably be one of my first choices: he's not only smart and likable, but incredibly passionate, I mean look at the shine in his eyes while he's explaining monetary policies! Would be amazing to learn a thing or two from him.
It gets a bit lonely in Caiman islands, even with a wife and a billion dollars net worth.
Having an audience is what he craves, hence he started this channel. Plenty of YT-ers out there do the same because that's all they have left to feel "connected" to Humanity.
Either Raul Pal lives in a bar in a Thailand or he urgently needs help with his interior design, Rodger on the other hand has pushed the envelope with his "room divider".
I think it is Ash with the room divider 🙂
I think if the room divider got a run in your vid analysis , I think you may of missed the key takeaway' s.
Best Vid in 2020 guys!
Amazing work guys, so much info packed into this. Glad to see others are seeing Bitcoin as the future. Governments have shown time & time again they are not responsible enough to issue currency. Time for the separation of Money and State
So my takeaway is they are going to have to move to UBI, or the whole house of cards comes crashing down.
UBI is the house of cards having crashed.
Or a biowar that eliminates a billion people?
@@shawnkalin9337 More likely, the virtual entire population will be "infected", and some 150 million will expire from this. The so-called "Old peoples homes", those medically supported places where octogenarians reside...those will be abandoned, devoid of occupants. All the benefits of the medical industry, that enabled our oldest of peoples to live longer...those progresses of the last one-hundred years, overtaken by the virus.
Yes, but actually UBI is the least of it. Theres approximately 250 trillion in debt spread across the planet. The bulk of it is expressed in U.S. dollar denominations. This represents what Raoul is alluding to.
Gayle Williams Exeter’s pyramid. Quadrillion in derivatives. Eurodollar system has no reserves.
Thanks. This is an insightful discussion, but there is an important miss on inflation IMO. The CPI is a total scam number. It's regularly tweaked to make it look like there is no inflation, meanwhile large sectors of the US economy are seeing significant inflation (e.g. healthcare, education, food, housing). Perhaps gold is sniffing out that "they" will soon not be able to deceive enough people about how much inflation is really in the US.
brilliant session...the questions and the answers
Raoul, let's play a game of pool/billiards and discuss the USD negative interest rates end game...I'll bring the beers. Cheers
Once again the best analysis on the internet for what's going on and what will happen next!
Thanks, RV for letting the common person in on this type of macro insight
Very informative discussion. Thank you!
Great conversation!
Raul, I know you love the Caymans, but wish you could get a terabit connection.
gee, I wonder why he would love the caymans
Thanks Raul! Again!
Raoul Pal is a warrior. The dude is not scared to take a trade
Thank you for these videos! great stuff
that comment Raoul made about there being so many dollars in the world so the US is at a big disadvantage when it comes to devaluing. that is important to understand because it is an extremely important macro factor. it is easy to see the FED printing and US budget deficits and think that means weak dollar but the amount of dollars and assets prices in dollars need to be taken into account. the more assets that are priced in dollars the more potential for dollar deflation. this is such a simple idea but does not seem to be talked about enough. the more USD gets inflows of capital, and debt denominated in USD defaults, the stronger the dollar will get. This is a feedback loop that will cause more debt to default in places that are hurt by the stronger relative dollar. big moves are all about feedback loops. this is probably one that is coming.
Kenr Nimmo you nailed it. We’re facing a potential doom vortex. Could be profitable if not terrifying.
How do you bet on bonds going negative?
This was fantastic, Cheers Raoul 🍻
Just one word: great! Wonderful interview 👏
Keep it up boys
Thank you guys - concise and amazingly informative
In 25 words or less: we were sleepwalking toward a cliff; now we're sleepjogging.
and we sold out parachute for better sneakers
THE HAWKEY STICK - - - -NO RECOVERY COMING
THIS IS - - NOT - - A BLACK SWAN, (EASY TO PREDICT & HIGH IMPACT)
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
Steely Dan - everything most go.
@@thomaskauser8978 The four DAY work week, long over due.
2020- the year of hindsight
brutal podcast, terrific!
So, what I got out of this: Watch the Bond rates, Buy Gold and Bitcoin.
Hi Mark,
My name is Pim. Could you tell me some more about the bonds? How exacly should I watch the bond rates? Will they spike and is that the moment to buy? Also which bonds? And where do i find them?
Thanks :)
@@pimmeijer7589 he was saying that if five and ten year bonds go zero then recession will take very long.
Lol, every conversation with Raoul ends up on gold and Bitcoin. Not saying I'm not agreeing, but man this guy is persistent.
Two real assets that can move around the world without being traced. Both are easily converted to local currency. Most other assets are either fixed in place, or can be frozen or traced.
Bill V bitcoin not perfectly anonymous but better than fiat.
I've been asking people for months, what happens when global debt becomes higher then global income. Revolution usually happen when people realize they don't have anything to lose any more. The next revolution happens when people break into banks to destroy servers that control debt.
I'm going to watch this again! Well done
Currently listening to "The Great Depression: A Diary" which is a diary written by a guy who lived through the depression. The scary part is that this guy and everybody around him was scared of inflation. There were these hard money maniacs everywhere and basically everybody was looking in the wrong direction - they were in the midst of a massive deflation yet all they could see was the dangers of "money printing" and "weak dollar" and "leaving the gold standard". Its fasciating to see how blindfolded everybody was back then.
Once again an excellent video. Much appreciated.
sum it up : gold (platinum, silver...), bitcoin and some dollar
20% in each: cash, bitcoin, gold, short-term bonds, short the Russell 2000
@Cardinal Sin What's about to happen (within a week)?
@@antonystringfellow5152 nothing
Just buy some leap puts as they’re relatively cheap right now.
I bought some silver in 1983. Spot is same price today. SIVR and switch to physical later.
33 cash 33 gold 33 bitcoin.....forget the bonds
Rates are always the best indicator.
Raoul...what is your dog's name? Watched this vid more than once...excellent info as always!
Great conversation, thanks for sharing!
excellent Raoul
It still baffles me when people conflate artificial demand with actual demand in the market. Injections of liquidity in the form of loans is not real demand especially in an over-leveraged market.
Thank you gents!!
The European Union is essentially if you took a family of brothers and sisters who all made different amounts of income, have different amounts of debt, and asked them all to pool some of their money together to "look out for each other." There will always, ALWAYS be those who make less and spend like no tomorrow. And then there will ALWAYS be those who save all their money and penny pinch. What do you think will happen to that family? This Union should just break apart, but they can't because the top dog penny pinchers also act like mob bosses that say "You can join, but you cannot leave or there WILL be consequences."
Funny, and oh so true!
Excellent analysis. I love gold long term. The only problem is that gold always falls (short term) when equities crash. We saw this effect in March. So it’s not a true safe haven when the market crashes
Simply amazing. Raoul is a Star.
Wow great perspective. Thanks!
absolutely fab interview. Great to look at the macro econ view. thanks so much
Thanks Raoul, now I'm telling myself that I fear making to much money. We'll see if man's self-destructive nature sets in to make these fears a reality. Love the videos! LoL
His conceptual approach IMHO is spot on. Though why he has not mentioned US Treasury principal zero bonds baffles me. Having been in the UK US Euro zero bond markets since the 1980s its always surprised me how so few retail investors have cottoned on. I remember my first trade buying CATs at 8 and selling at 98 on a YTM of 9% add fx cross rate and the compound growth rate was 15%. The secular trend has been down ever since yes we are approaching the end game but if you have a broker and enough funds it's one area to consider again you heed, to understand how they work and have deep pockets
In australia - there are people saying that the government is looking at given people $100K - regardless of what value you had... what would it do if 13.5M got $100K - what would happen to Australia?
EXCELLENT presentation!! Thank you very much.
What he says is contradictory. If you have the dollar getting stronger vs assets and deflationary pressured then why would gold prices increase?
I don't need to buy many clothes, hardware etc for the next 20 years.
We've bought enough Chinese plastic. I can repair their stuff that's broken and have something better than new.
Convince me that I need to buy new stuff. Convince me that my frugality is wrong; once it was a virtue.
They should record native from each person, allow them to talk via video chat, then piece them together in post. Perfect res even with poor internet
Brilliant!
Isn't access to capitol and access to cash flow the same thing?? Aren't they both a liquidity problem?? If not explain how its different, I don't understand.
Awesome thanks
I have a degree in Finance. You guys know your stuff!
I will tell you how the world will be in the next 10 years. Imagine doing Macro analysis in the economy of Italian-states of the XIV on a day by day basis. Nothing will make sense...nobody will figure this out.
Great interview. Currency is where it is at, I earn dollars and convert it to South African rands based on the exchange rate.
How to watch bonds - what's the ticker?
I understand the asymmetric strength of the US dollar not allowing money printing to catch up. There’s an important factor that differentiates EUR/JPY/GBP from BRL and TRY -> Fed swap lines! Surprised there was no mention of that here whatsoever and the impact that has on controlling the relative strength of those currencies
Interesting takes, thanks!
They also use borrowed money to buy stock. They are not using earnings. In nost cases dont earn nearly enough.
BOND HOLDERS ARE SUCKERS HOLDING ONTO # NEGATIVE # INTEREST RATES
Pension funds have to buy them in the uk. China hold a lot of usa bonds
Absolutely brilliant! The 4 Ds of Doom 😉
Very clear and informative. Scary times ahead.
Markets already pricing in zero interest rates!
Fed is trapped.
john winchester this
Thank you for a clear explanation.
This is a very depressing clip yet educational. Thanks for the upload.
great content - thanks !!! :)
Brilliant gymnastics and monetary economics - but I got totally lost halfway :-) - digesting
Excellent. Thanks for sharing.
In a typical war, the economy is shifted into high gear. In this war, there is only uncertainty, fear, contraction, recession, and an invisible enemy. The enemy is so sly that it's the only war in history where the US has no reason to fight back, or risk world wide backlash, even tho it has all that military might. This was the smarter than any smartbomb or any high tech gadget that the anyone could even think of building.
Speaking of China?
Fast-Forward, to the year 2022. ☠
Thank you. Great conversation. Both the host and guest weaved through macro investment options in a very methodical and understandable way. Even after having an MBA in international finance from Columbia I was not able to understand, until after reading Richebacher letters from several years and reading Doug Noland Credit Bubble Bulletin for over 15 years. As a Muslim we can't invest in interest-bearing instruments, like bonds, options and futures. Instead, I invested on real stuff like Gold, silver, cash, and agricultural land since 2003, expecting that we will go into a dollar crisis in 2008. Now I have a fresh on USD's new lease on life.
You can't invest in bonds because you are a Muslim, well than invest in holy war fought by Taliban in Afghanistan.
RAOUL: Please update us on how you think the following show a fast or slower path to deflation, and a Japan-style 1990's "after too much QE" market crash:
1. US and EU monthly inflation (e.g. released 2 days after this video, USA's 0.33% inflation -- will go negative next month given how much Fed's Balance Sheet grew each week during Feb-April?)
2. CPI and other things like this week's PMI, last and next month's Core Retail Sales, manufacturing/service growth data, etc.
3. Trade War, as it develops (and China's been selling their US bond holdings (approx $10 BLN per week r month as Fed bought in 2019 and probably sill in 2020 (this is NOT China's "nuclear option" just ~1% of what thy hold), and now as COVID RELATED LAWSUITS = CHINA STANDS TO LOSE ALL ASSETS IN THE USA, I'd think they may be selling bit more per month, but this meant FED NEEDED TO BUY UP THE TENS OF BILLIONS CHINA SOLD (AND PROBABLY STILL IS SELLING), so pls let us know if you see any news that China's still selling, and your interpretation of how it affects your "this time we go the way of Japan's DEFLATION -- including STOCKS CRASHED in Japan because it was recognized all assets were DEFLATING, opposite of post-2009-usa stock markets being perceived as MORE valuable as "All assets are gonna INFLATE, so buy stocks! This QE means NASDAQ 10,000 is a proper valuation"?
4. any other monthly/weekly indicators you're watching?
Interesting how the "commodities bubble" already burst few years ago (most notably, crude), as those are raw materials for GLOBAL/spot market consumption and many First Worlders who USED TO BE fairly big parts of the "consumer economy" when adding up all these people who suffered through "decimation of the middle class" in the EU and JAPAN -- and GLOBAL commodities spot-markets may have been reacting to Japan's deflation and loss-o-EU-consumer-class, as some parts of the EU destroyed their "consumer class" faster than USA (whose lower-middle class still had CHEAP stuff from China to import, and other advantages compared to EU's living-costs...), and *_is this a sort of "contagion" from the commodities "bubble" to other sectors of goods & services now being in "bubbles"?? ...as well as a sort of "contagion" stemming from "kick the can down the road" of 2008 housing "bubble""/Southern EU sovereign debt "bubbles" that the Fed/ECB never truly resolved, just created a "new bubble" that infects...well, all sectors of the economy pretty much, now?_*
Great interview thanks chaps
4 D'S IS ALL NEED TO KNOW; IF YOUR SIMPLE AND SHORT ON TIME; GREAT VIDEO' 4 D'S
Deflation? I always say I'll believe in when I see it. "Commodities are going down" -- a lot more believable if commodities were not going *up* at the supermarket. Most people spend most their income on things like cost of government, food, housing, education, health and other insurance, autos, utilities -- how many of these things have gone *down* in price? Any of them? If prices don't fall at the retail level, then you don't have real deflation. Even gasoline seems to be holding fairly steady, in spite of the collapse in oil prices. Someone, somewhere, has to be pocketing the difference, and it's sure not the consumer. This is not how real deflation works.
Lol, give it some time. The effect is delayed. Car prices will take months to collapse for example I've been following that closely.
PENSIONERS ALL OVER THE WORLD HAD STOPPED SPENDING
FROM THE US AND UK AND EU
AS WELL AS IN JAPAN KOREA TAIWAN ASEAN SINGAPORE ! ! ! !
GDPs HAD NOT BEEN EARNED BY CITIZENS ? ? ? ?
Any tips on going long dollar in forex in terms of how to manage leverage?
Buy in with small increments and watch your margin %. Fx can move very quickly so time your entry as best you can, don't be afraid to take profit and for god's sake use your stop losses. That's all I got buddy.
Great conversation and interview
Everyone needs to read the Price of Tomorrow by Jim Booth.
Can you point out some relevance to this fiasco we're in? Thanks.
Just finished it. Prior to my reading UBI seemed like the only answer. I still think UBI is where were heading, but if deflation could be adopted that would be best. Great book. Everything sounds like fluff now. We address the 3rd and 4th order consequences but the root cause is inflation policies in the midst of technology ever driving deflation.
It's not the spending, it's the productive capacity.
Your measure of inflation is wrong. Commodity falling by itself is not deflation. Rent, expenses, college tuition has all skyrocketed. Your measure of inflation is broken budz.
Measure of inflation is best priced in gold imo. The commodities are going down because demand is going down.... that's all.