Israel and Iran Avoid War...For Now || Peter Zeihan
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- Опубликовано: 22 апр 2024
- Tensions between Israel and Iran have been escalating since the Hamas attacks in October, but are we going to see a full blown war between these two adversaries?
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#israel #iran #war
I see that a lot of people out here disagree with and sometimes disparage you, and even I don’t always agree with what you say; but I thought that was a good, concise overview of the present situation. I also appreciate that you do so many short videos that get to the point without too much rambling. Thanks for your viewpoint!
Mr. Zeihan likes to regurgitate other military analysts info and act like he discovered it, then add pro American view to it. To each their own.
Who says Peter only brings us bad news?! That's two days in a row now.
NODOBY I know says Peter brings bad news. Maybe it's just you.
Peter informs, and surprises with his insights. That's how I see him.
Everything you say makes perfect sense to me but it does seem from the comments that you have struck a nerve in Trolldom. Keep up the good work and thank you.
No mention of the Iranian missiles that hit the iron dome protected nevatim airbase...
This is a very neutral comment I'm leaving but why do people support lies? Why do they betray their future selves?
@@beeasy9927 some people just want to watch the world burn
Thank you 🙏
Thanks Peter.
? Only Peter Z is clarifying this? Amazing difference in perspective and Z is very consistent; thankful I discovered him a year ago
That seems to be a good summary
Very succinct analysis, impressive - a lot of value in these videos!
Not the actual consulate.
This is the second time I've seen a comment to this effect, what exactly was the role of the facility that was initially struck by the Israelis owned by Iran? Connecting these countries actions to emotional responses of singular human beings is always a little dangerous when it comes to simplifying things too much, but I think it really works as a model of behavior in this particular case
@@victorquesada7530 Iran claims it as staff quarters and annex, so like extra offices. Most intelligence agencies say it's the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's office itself.
What is clear is that Iran *thought* it was "safe". Also, again, this was over a consulate, not an embassy, which has a different status. In any regards what's done is done.
The building that was destroyed in Damascus was close to the Iranian embassy. It was not the embassy.
Iran's involvement in October 7th massacre in funding and advising Hamas also played its part in Israel attacking senior leaders involved in participation with Hamas on October 7th.
Netanyahu's long term support for Hamas as a useful rival to the Palestinian Authority also enabled Hamas' October 7th massacre.
@@murrayjeffree8245
Exactly... I also thought he meant to say: Netanyahu's right wing cronies more than two decade long funding of Hamas and their complete intentional defenselessness of the attacks of Oct. 7th played a part.
@@murrayjeffree8245 Oh, I thought it was Bill Gates? Or was that WEF? What other parties shoud we add to that list?
A few missiles got through and that showed Israel that their Iron Dome can be overwhelmed and is useless. All it takes is numbers. Listen to Scott Ritter.
@@harbourhaven don’t muddy the waters lol. The current political paradigm in Israel is no secret.
Iran was needling Israel? What exactly do you mean? And when do we look at Gazans to make sure they’re okay?!
It was not the consulate. It was a residential building next to the consulate where IRGC leaders were staying and meeting.
accordong to you or to Israel?
Want to hear you talk about Burma
Info, whether (opinion/research/proselytized)....is WHY I watch Zeihan! Concise, sober, considered, educated guess if not fact! None of the major media news outlets would rarely even come close in such a succinct format! Thanks PZ, good stuff but please continue with the abstention of the dopey hats. For one thing, makes you far more credible to a much wider audience, friend!
The Israelis pointed out that under international law the consulate wasn't being used for diplomatic purposes. It was being used for military purposes. Which clearly it was. Given all the generals and militia leaders who were blown up together.
Thus… under International law… No diplomatic immunity at all.
Seems like this little detail has been lost by everybody.
Though I agree with you completely, IT was not Israel's call to decide IF it was being used for diplomatic purposes under International law or not! Frankly, I don't care in Genghis Khan was there strategizing, it was still a consulate which still allows military attaches, etc., etc.,.....ISRAEL needs to be far more careful with what they do and when. Too much laisez faire "let's pull the trigger and find out who comes running out from under!" Especially, since they always come home to The Yankee Bank of Mom & Dad every time they stick their fingers where they don't belong!
@@marcob.7801 that's not the way international law works. If it's not doing only diplomatic functions, it isn't a diplomatic facility.
Just like hospitals can’t be used for military headquarters.
Do you think all those generals and militia leaders were issuing visas? Helping Iranians in Syria with their pensions? Working on trade relations with Syria?
And I am absolutely not a fan of Netanyahu. And he needs to go away in shame.
Whether we agree with it or not, it's a tenable position that has been kept out of the news.
@@stevenbrady440 ” the Hamas headquarters was under that hospital” Was the disgusting excuse for bombing the first hospital, also their biggest hospital, they’ve bombed over 20 hospital since then, were there headquarters under all of them? Also in the 80s when they were taking land from Lebanon, they bombed the hospital on that border as well, they have a history of bombing hospitals unfortunately. Don’t mistake me for being a pro Hamas supporter, October 7 was a terrorist attack. I just feel many people are quick to buy the mainstream narrative that Israel is “just defending itself” and blind to how to disgustingly perverse Israel and much of its population has become.
@@bradydaniels8489 they literally went and tried to find evidence at al-shifa AFTER attacking and bombing it, and they found almost none. No command center, just a few tunnels with what seemed like radio stations in the complex. I agree with what Marco is saying, Israel pulling the trigger on whatever they want and then going in afterwards to try and find some justification is not okay. And we've seen cases when they find no justifications and they make it go away or dowmplay it all of which makes it seem more like spinning the pr for Israel than any real responsible logic behing the way they conduct a war.
There's always gonna be justification considering how far Israel will stretch things. Could there possibly have been a militant hiding in that building or using that room? Maybe. Was that ambulance actually transporting a militant before it got bombed? Maybe. Did that guy who got shot in the street have a gun in his hands? Maybe. Is that school actually being used as an arms depot? Maybe, but we can't tell from the rubble. When all of Israel's justification is so hard to prove it starts to look like they just do whatever they want and then justify it post hoc.
I agree with you that people are too quick to trust, and the real bias in this conflict is how much benefit of the doubt Israel gets compared to the level of cynicism and distrust that the Palestinian side gets, and not just Hamas.
Plenty of embassies and consulates have military staff openly working out of them. They still have protection. Heck, the US (and presumably other member states) have embassies to NATO itself which is purely a military function.
Maybe Iran shouldn't put 3 generals in the same building.
01:25 Actually a 7 year old Bedouin girl named Amina Hassouna was seriously injured by shrapnel from the Iranian attack.
I think Peter meant damage to military infrastructure.
The "Axis" probably thought America would be to divided to come up with a relief package for BOTH... Ukraine was getting aid before but I think they(Axis) started the somewhat questionable war in I/P in hopes that America would debate giving aid to Israel or not... getting Ukraine aid caught up in the debate, despite it being pretty straight we should help Ukraine unlike Israel.
before anyone gets pissed im not against helping all 3 countries at once, but I do question how much aid the IDF actually needs considering how equipped they are. I get helping with Iron dome munitions though, but im certain this aid is a lot more than that.
yes what the F does israel need 20 billion for? that is probably more than they have spent fighting hamas. and hamas is totally losing badly . they were never any kind of military match against israel .
@@ronblack7870 $20B aid to Israel is complete b.s. done entirely for political reasons. We have played a huge role at considerable expense building up Israeli defense for decades now. The same people whining about spending money in Ukraine are throwing money away at Israel, which is more than capable of defending itself with its own incredible wealth... Total b.s.
So cool that you hike often. Nice
Whatever this overpaid shill lives up in Evergreen, he is walking around his neighborhood
👍
You said bro lmao 😂
Hello.
Coffee?
Good luck.
‘Tis yup.
Peter it is Is-fahan not Ish-fahan. Thanks for all the info.
Thanks for a simple, un sensationalized account of the present conflict in the Middle East . Wish main sream media would get there shit together.
Critical analysis was lost in the broadcast media some time shortly after the birth of MTV.
Peter... you are skipping over the part where Iranian missiles hit the Nevatim airbase, arguably the most secure location in the ME in terms of air def. Etc. Even as a proof of concept, this should have been impossible... I think glossing over that is an error
This is not accurate per usual. Fordow not Isfahan is where the primary nuclear assets are and it’s 90ft underground. Isfahan is already 25 years old and its replacement is under construction 130 fr underground. Their attack didn’t even take out the S300 system.
Understand you say the Israelis could have did so much more but if the Iranians did not Telegraph that attack what type of damage would we have been looking at
No meaningful damage was done? 😂😂 only $1 billion in ammo
For now...
peters going back to his ‘based af’ roots and me likey
It wasn't a consulate, just a building near the embassy. And it wasn't the iron dome.
"A distraction" is that what we're gonna call it Peter?
No mention of Israel’s embassy attack being targeted at the architect of the October 7 attack. Cool.
Kind of agree with everything except the last point. I think Russia would have been reluctant previously to encourage a Great War in the region as a distraction (although there are a number of examples in the past). But right now, they need all the weapon systems they can get and a greater war would probably freeze up weapons going from Iran to Russia.
But your point is exactly the point that PZ "WAS" making. One must think in between the lines.
Israel... Are you okay? 😂
!NOTIFY
That was no consulate that was an IRGC building ! It was fair game !
Even if it wasn’t a consulate, (which basically everyone is saying it is except for Israel ) Israel bombing inside of Syria is not “fair game”
@@bradydaniels8489 They didn't strike inside Iran. Big difference. Iran struck Israel directly. Not to mention Iran is behind Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
@@bradydaniels8489 A consulate or embassy is not just the building in which diplomatic services are offered. The compound might include multiple buildings which are offices, housing, storage, guardshacks, or what have you. It all exists under the diplomatic umbrella.
@@bradydaniels8489 so what? iran planned the massacre of oct 7 and that guy was in that building. Hezbollah is firing missiles into iran
nuclear, not nuculer.
Next, can you talk about what China is doing in the waters near the Philippines.
I should have just skipped this video as I watch the breaking News 🙄 I'm not waiting for someone to climb a hill
Avoid? I’m not quite sure that is what happened.
I think Israel scared the cra-p out of Iran on how easily they could penetrate Iran’s air defenses…
We are such wolves. Why can't we be Meerkats?
Viewing events in the world from a strictly economic point of view seems lacking somehow. SCIF much?
It's "Islamic Revolution Guard Corps", there's no Iran in it as Khamenei is the supreme leader of the Revolution.
It gives a good insight to worldview of the current rulers of Iran.
I don't think that Iran intended for their attack to fail completely. It makes them look bad, like they're incapable of hitting Israel and at a disadvantage in a conflict. Typically, you don't want your show of force to make you look weak. They likely did intend for the attack to hit _something,_ though not do so much damage that it would cause an outright war. The warning would have been meant with more "get out of the way we're gonna blow something up" and not "Hey shoot down every last missile". Israel's air defense was more effective than expected.
They sent a bunch of slow flying drones to saturate the air defense so that the fast missiles behind could punch through - a solid strategy that usually would work against any other target. Every last one was taken down anyways, the iron dome is just kinda really, freakishly good.
yeah, but it also could be warning since they show they can launch so many cheap munition, how much israel iron dome can keep up. Irondome missile cost 100k per shot, its crazy expensive compare to Iran cheap drone and missile.
A little girl was hurt by the Iranian missiles?
They don't want to each end up in in a never ending war like russia and ukraine.
We give Israel 38 billion per decade in assistance.(3.8 billion/yr.) Is this new 26 billion over time ? Did they just get a bumped up to 6.4 billion a year, or is this one big chunk ?
Russsia would NOT like a broader war in Iran for the simple fact that one of the first targets would be drone making facilities of which they are still a major purchaser (even if they are making them on license themselves)
At the same time, Putin's russia doesn't want the situation to de-escalate which would bring the world's attention back to the war crimes they are perpetrating on a totally non-aggressive Ukraine.
It’s impossible to get information here is the separated states of merica
True, except that the Israeli government response was mostly to appease their ultra orthodox, ultra right wing nationalistic coalition partners. Israel announced in advance knowing that the Iranian attack is eminent, that " the scope of it's response will not be determine by the volume but rather by the result. " i.e. the amount of casualties and/ or damage. Based on that, Israel didn't even had to attack cause there was one girl injured and the damage was minimal. However the right wing flank of the coalition demanded a response, so that was the compromise.
Sensitive ? Lol😮. You fire on a country or support those that do you get fired back on !
Israel could be invisible and the Middle East will continually have wars ! For history they have !
The triggered commenters here, that aren't bots, are the pro-russian guys. That last comment really sends them.
Just as you predicted Peter - a bit of saber-rattling on both sides
Thats great but how do the Russians benefit from war between I ran and It’sReal…
The simple explanation is it distracts attention from their invasion of Ukraine. All they eyes focus on Israel/Gaza/Iran, no ones looking directly at Russia and what they are doing inside or Ukrainian territory.
Both sides know that one of them must go. This one is more problematic than Ukraine/Russia conflict because too many players with the conflicted interests.
Irgc is Islamic revolutionary guard corps, not Iranian rgc.
So you're just re-telling what already went out on the BBC last week but in a less articulate, insightful or expository manner. Truly inspired!
He probably has a better background than the BBC had though
Do you think the ‘pro Palestine’ sentiment among American left leaning voters can hurt Biden’s chances in November? Thanks!
Appreciate your work.
👀🇺🇸✌️
So sensitive Israel 😉
Why did Peter fail to mention that the architect of the October 7th attack on Israel was in that embassy building? Israel wasn't just highly sensitive they were trying to take out the person that helped plan the attack and probably so he wouldn't plan more in the future
That’s a lie. Oct 7 was planned right under their noses and the Israelis apparently didn’t see it
PETER your books are crazy $$$$ in Canada to the tune of $39.00 crazy
Ok, what will happen when Iran finally has nuclear weapons? Because then there will a huge power change in the region and Israel no longer will have the ultimate deterrence (even if it will keep have a technological supremacy)?
Zeihan said America is leaving the middle east...looks like that didn't happen. Israel is the senior partner unfortunately
Not quite on the last line. The Russians loved Israel and Gaza fighting as a distraction. They don't want Iran directly fighting because that could impede Iranian arms reaching Russia.
But thanks for the info! I completely missed the bit on the Swiss embassy!
Sends a bunch of rockets
Fails
Its just a prank bro
❤🎉🇦🇺✅
Why don’t you even condemn Israel? Or describe them the same way you do with Russia? Double standard?
im glad the cia got themselves a spokesperson
thanks peter
I see the Russian trolls have shown up to disparage Peter and call him a CIA shill. You guys are so obvious.
A 7 year old girl was critically injured. She matters. Every child killed or injured matters. Don't be so quick to say nothing significant happened
You are not that child or that childs family. She matters.
Oh he unlocked the comment field after a few hours, wonder why he felt like it needed to be locked.
Because y'all can't behave yourselves
Maybe he's getting a lot of organized trolls/bots immediately on vid releases?
Peter, it’s time to get a job at CNN
We see wars going on all over the world. Let’s see what the USA troops can do??? 😂😂😂
It's not Israel's Iron Dome anymore than the car Peter rents from Hertz is his.
Lol what a joke - I guess the opposite is true. Everything you say is often wrong
I thought you were impartial. That's too bad.
1 Corinthians 15:3-4 (KJV) For I delivered unto you first of all that which I also received, how that Christ died for our sins according to the scriptures;
And that he was buried, and that he rose again the third day according to the scriptures:
Your political bias is creeping into the wording of your analysis more and more!
Israel didn't bomb the consulate Peter, if you look at any picture of it, you'll see there is a small building next to it which was targeted since it had IRGC terrorists in it. Don't be fooled by misreports my man.
do you ever talk about banks and the City of London and Rothschild family etc. and who owns the FED ? guess not. More of a Spykman and Mackinder kind of guy perhaps.
Israel tries hard to open pandoras box
What
@@Lotterywinnerify Something about Muhammed(PBUH) writing something, and making a cartoon about it will bring an end to civilization.
Seems like unhelpful oversimplification, jocularity, and inaccuracy. Makes me question Zeihan's analysis in other areas (even moreso).
Under Yimmy Carter, Iran took 82 American Embassy Americans hostage. Carter did nothing about it. Some deal. His Naval Command experience really sucked.
Jimmy Carter was a submarine nuclear engineer, not a naval commander. He had the knowledge and experience to manage the meltdown at Three Mile Island. And that wasn't even the first meltdown he had to deal with. He also repaired a meltdown in Canada, actually walking into the reactor and fixing it by hand. I'd say the Navy trained him well.
@@dukebanerjee4710well the nuclear part was well trained but the naval command was not. Aren’t officers supposed to be trained on both leadership and technical aspects? His handling of Iran was terrible.
@@prst99 officers are trained in leadership to create and operate well trained and well organized units under their command. Foreign policy is more like tactics and strategy in combat, and I doubt that all officers get that kind of training and are even good at that. Carter's experience was in building the nuclear navy, not directing submarine warfare.
The officer corps is mostly like middle management.
@@prst99 There was also the problem of the Bush 1980 campaign sabotaging the Carter administration efforts to free the hostages with the weapons deal that Bush made with the Iranians to delay their release until after Carter was out. Treasonous.
"the hostages were released on January 20, 1981, minutes after the inauguration of the new U.S. president, Ronald Reagan".
Too bad for it would be wonderful to finally be able to say the weather over Teheran today is “cloudy, bright, 6000 degrees”.
He said even with out the help of the United States. God damn liar again
Israel made the wrong choice. They did not avoid war, just postponed it until Iran is in a better position.
Iran will never be in a good position lmao
Iran has literally no water and is bad economic shape
@@millevenon5853 On top of being a stone's throw of having their mullahs run out of office. The Persians are not like the Arab Sunnis.
Or maybe Israel is preparing for a better position.
The Israelis are snsitive ? Where is the evidence ?
Lol! 😂
I think you’re missing his point. Zeihan is just saying that right now, Israel is in a place where they are going to react strongly to any provocation.
Shame, I wanted to see a good scrap and watch Biden dither.
Ooof.
Trash take
Peter Zeihan has good overview but he is very liberal and lives in Colorado, a heavily liberal state. So his bias has always been apparent.
Yet, he supports Israel. It seems like most of the liberals root for Palestine.
What a shill 😊
nothing worse than an angry jew, hell has no fury like jewbacca