Is Bitcoin Still In An Accelerated Cycle? - Crucial Update
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- Опубликовано: 3 апр 2024
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We talk about periods of over and underperformance in Bitcoin's current cycles, while comparing to previous cycles. Over the past months, we saw a period of historical over performance but right now, we are actually seeing mean reversion in the form of a re-accumulation range at highs, which is slowing down the cycle. And if this range persists, then the cycle will slow down to the point that it resynchronises with historical norms.
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What if it is not necessarily accelerated but going the same pace with higher prices because there are more buyers with the ETFs so same time frame with way more interest this time?
Good point， but the market needs more retail investors
Wrong we already accelerated. We going close to 2 month faster than the last cycle, we are at speed very close to 2017 years. And we going to live a lot of green candles, with ony 1 or 2 BIG corrections in this bull run. But for now all be greennnnnnnn a lot.
Love your insight and calm demeanor Rekt.
Awesome video! Thanx!
Thank you! really helpful! ❤🌟😊
Yes the timing and extra money entering the markets from the ETFs along with mining hash rate increase has accelerated the cycle. Will most likely end in October 2024 rather than November/December like previous cycles. Could also end as soon as August 13th @RektCapital 😉
100% I concur with your thesis 🤝
I thought the post halving cycle is 12-18 months for peak to hit.
@@RamonAcosta191 i thought as well
@@RamonAcosta191it is he’s tripping lol
@@RamonAcosta191 I usually look at top Alr coins if they have reached their ath or not only coin that has is sol. The others are not that close yet and then don’t forget the actual pumps of them to beyond that!!
hey Rekt I love your videos bro I was wondering if you could do some alt coins for example cardano and solana since they're already two years old into the bull market cycle Please !
There is no accelerated cycle or left translation, this is an ordinary cycle with a larger gov deficit and you simply arent bullish enough
sounds like a pretty good summary to me.
I disagree. Macro market factors have created a massive liquidity spike which is making this a left translated cycle and will crash much faster than people think. $150-200k then a 2x bear compared to other cycles.
@@Canadian_Eh_I When you say a 2x bear compared to other cycles are you referring to the length of the bear market? I also have a strong feeling that this is going to rip very hard and very quick. Especially with how much media coverage BTC has been getting lately, the retail FOMO into anything crypto could be absolutely insane. I'm expecting a lot of people to get totally wrecked this cycle. I've been in since 2018, but this cycle I loaded up 2nd half of 2022 and throughout most of 2023 until the tail end of the year when it started running. I've been buying a little lately with this cooling off phase but nothing that aggressive.
@@oglocbaby520 Yes I think it will rip hard and then crypto will tank with equities and stay down longer than it usually does because everything is getting wrecked. I'll be mostly in Gold, Bonds, and the DXY at that point
@Canadian_Eh_I I don't think it will rip as bad. Depends on retail entrance again. The etfs and sovereigns won't spook out as fast.
What if what matters is the all time high more than the halving date? These often coincide of course because the halving usually drives when the all time high is reached, but this time around the etfs pushed us there before the halving. So we are actually now behaving like a post-halving all time high has been reached from previous cycles.
Is does look like between every pre halving there has been an increase in interest in bitcoin and better performance. This could just be due to adoption and more people being educated on it which could explain an early ATH.
Yes it is and I'm currently long on it on Nexo.
Hey rekt/ commentsection, i got into the game a lil late, but i have 3K coming into my account around juli, is that to late to catch the bullrun or to make like a 2x? If it is ill just wait for it to come down and wait 4 years for the next run, thanks in advance!
Bro please tell best buying and some best coins please bro
Pls
@@happiospls
Rupee is best coin brother :)
Really good analysis yet again! I am so on board with a mean regression and a return to the norm. Personally, i would like to see some pace come off, 8 week period would be perfect. BTC high around Feb would be great, although i am starting to think about a double pump scenario. Purely conjecture, obviously,
I don’t think we’re in an accelerated it’s still hard to call… But if we are and my alt holdings fly past all time highs this year I will sell
That's what you should be doing. The only thing to hold long term in my opinion is BTC, especially now that it's gone "public" with all this ETF stuff. If you are a solid investor, you could have been buying alts are crazy discounts in late 2022 and for most of 2023. Most are still well off from their highs of 2021. If you go and 10x+ you sell that shit lol. Hell, prior to the last bull market of 2021 I bought a bunch of LTC at an average price of $40 and it peaked slightly over $400, this was in 2020 when BTC and ETH had already been running hot. You could sell at a massive return or basically hold it until you are back to where you started lol.
LTC did not break its 2017-2018 high in 2021..?? Why??
@@iVETAnsolini Don't ask me, I still did a roughly 10x with my investment. Most alts do NOT typically set new all time highs from their previous cycles, the only exceptions are Ethereum and Cardano.
imo it's hard to tell right now
but if it goes sideways for a few months then i doubt it's accelerated
@@iVETAnsolinithat's LTC though
Bro which is the best accumulation zone bro and best alt coin ❤
Crow with knife best coin
Is bull market over?
Yup sell all lol
Can you really still compare cycles when the market participants are not the same?
They are the same. The etf guys will sell too and have also weak hands
Has human psychology changed in 4-8 years?
@@RektCapital so there is no difference in psychology in investors? A market with only 25 year old maxies will act different than a market with 45 year old institutional investors. Im not saying thats the case with Bitcoin but to show a point
"Blackrock" isn`t buying. People are buying through Blackrock.
Blackrock is buying. They hold the coins. People buy ETFs, an instrument tied to the bitcoin that is being purchased by Blackrock
I don’t think anything is different especially timing wise. We made a new ATH sure but we also have been messing around the prior ATH this whole time and won’t be surprised if we don’t really move a lot until it gets like a week away bc everyone wants to front run the halving idea. Without btc going nuts ahead of time with momentum it feels pretty on par with any other cycle. Just hopes it’s a 2017 style insane run
Só alta daqui pra frente, rumo aos 80k 👆
So when are the alt coins going to pump once btc is on a downtrend after it’s peak?
When BTC go up and the Dominance start to go down....STRAIGHT DOWN!
I'm still confused about why you use Nov 21 instead of April as the last peak.
The goal is to measure from the absolute Bull Market peak, right? So when did BTC produce the higher price?
@@RektCapital But it's common knowledge that part of the cycle was an anomaly due to price manipulation by FTX and others between April-November. The best measurement we have of a historically typical peak (which is the point of these comparisons) was April.
@@JAShanskylook up the definition of peak
@milton2755 he is saying that the trend should be compared with prehalving period. Crypto you tubers keep comparing charts with peak period that happened 1 year later the halving.
Btc etf is causing the acceleration, its not “retail” money
Bro please tell about spiral 🌀 clock
Don’t put that symbolism in here
@@_outofphase5480Yh bro it’s black magic
I see another wrinkle in the entire BTC cycle this time. In the past BTC has been almost entirely driven by the retail segment of the market. NOW, with the introduction of the ETF's and its acceptance by BIG money institutions, there's going to be a much smaller re-accumulation period, perhaps lasting until the halving or shortly after. I foresee a massive demand being generated by the ease in which pension funds and other investment sectors will be able to get BTC exposure. Hang on boys and girls, 2024 will be exciting. Don't forget to get in on the alt coin action too as the majors (ETH, SOL, DOGE, SHIB, XRP) will rise at a faster pace than BTC.
not only the nicest and most hypnotical voice on youtube... but this special surgeon of the charts works and operate his magic skills xraying analyzing and dissecting the charts on point of a scalpo with masterful touch n approach ....bravo
Thank you for the warm words Alejandro
Bro thanks for the video love from india I have noticed indian youtuber giving ur screen shot now ❤
Nice! What's his channel?
@@RektCapital how I can contact u bro
I feel like this will be a weak cycle. Macro economics really not looking good. 120-140k IMHO, but keep an eye on indicators. When the MVRV Z score gets around 7 and the 310 and 110 EMA cross then it’s prolly time to get out
When Trump wins in November, it could turn either way. He is not a fan of Bitcoin although his advisors may be. . Early November is going to be an interesting time for BTC..🤔
He flipped and has stayed he is pro Bitcoin now.
Traditional Banks vs Bitcoin
Deep pockets vs Bitcoin
@@mik3ymomoI’d say he’s Bitcoin-agnostic at best, for now. Still, much better than the alternative.
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 20k in last month 2024••
I will mention and recommend
Wendy Lee Olson. I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
Sounds interesting. I was planning to invest $70000 in some coins, stack them up and leave them for a few years, but seeing this changed my mindset. Thank you verv much
I'm definitely going for a long-term trade this season
Bro can we see 50k to 60k range before having
100%
Don’t wait for it. It might not go that low again. Just DCA
i think for the next few months, BTC will be stuck and go sideways
Bitcoin to 350k per coin
Doge coin to $10 per coin
Bro we can get to 50 or 45 k soon ?
That is well behind us. We will only get there again in the bottom of next bull market
I see $73K as the floor for the bottom of the next bull cycle and retrace.
no
$50k is absolutely a possibility
@@sevelev its not
You should probably stake your crypto until august 2025 😂
I respect all these guys that pour their time and effort into this.
Bottom line is nobody knows,
And like I said I respect all these guys,
But they make money putting out videos from RUclips,
And I have no problem with that,
Because I don't have their knowledge even begin to do it.
But people have to be honest with themselves and I just personally don't think it's right to put out one two videos a day so they can make money on their RUclips,
Because at the end of the video it doesn't tell me it really anything other than we don't know.
But on the second hand this guy is knowledgeable,
So so,
Unless you bought at the all-time lows or under $40,000,
You're watching every move and you're nervous as hell.
Grant me if I'm wrong anybody.
Because I didn't so I put myself in the nervous as hell range.
But
I don't have a lot of Bitcoin but I do know a Bitcoin cash moves up and down fast,
So to make money I'm monitoring that one along with litecoin,
Because I have been in this games since 2016.
The more I learn about this topic, the more I get convinced it's all a big load of BS: basing decisions on historical data, support levels, cycles etc. It's trying to rationalize uncertainty, only in hindsight we know what would have been the best decision
BULL TRAP
You're not putting enough emphasis on the ETF. If apples were first introduced to a new continent, do you think their sales would flourish? Of course we accelerated. There is zero reason to believe the timing is based on breaking ATH. The cycle needs room to breath. This is literally the kickoff, not the final inning. Higher, Longer.
Reading the comments, X, other content.....all bulls with various 'explenations' tells me exactly where we are.
We are more closed to the speed of 2017 time. So we have 2 scenarios 3-5 corrections in the bull run. Or only 2-3 correction, i think we going to live this one. So we going to live a lot of months greens again and them we take a BIG CORRECTION 25% to continue with the bull run.
I watched a lot of his videos and sometimes I feel like he says a lot but doesn’t say nothing lol am I the only one? Make no mistake. I am a fan. 🎉😊