Ever considered financial planning? My ptt growth has significantly increased throughout this down market. By essentially only adhering to my coach's instructions, I was able to scale from $18K to $72K. Knowing when to enter and exit is more important.
@@maryalchester Therefore, prior to investing in the market, financial planning is crucial. To choose the asset that is most appropriate for your time and resources, it is important to seek professional guidance. Analysis is best carried out by a professional or with their direction because there is more to the market than just technicals and up-front fundamentals. Since getting therapy, I've noticed a substantial difference.
@@aliyunko9689 After going through a few, it's better to check out locally, but for now, Juliet Eve Downey has been a huge help too though. A little low on roi and high on rate but better safe.
@@mvanwie Our continual temptation to try to handle things on our own is what makes our finances unstable. It's interesting that you recommended checking up Juliet Eve Downey because she would certainly agree that delegating is inevitable and that time is crucial. Highly priced tho.
HaZZard. Italy has Papa Rome, telling give me donation to fill my church coffer. American has Fort Knox which holds 9000 metric tons of gold, and gold is sold openly in all US banks. What the shit are you talking? "Jokes on you America" Come to US to buy gold coins in kilos if you have US dollars where it is printed "In God we Trust." Why Rome has not printed on their money "In Jesus we trust for your donation? Because its worthless paper.
It's precisely because you nearly have your head above water that the bankers will stop that from going any further. Can't have the plebs or indentured servants build wealth.
The dying economy and shrinking production indicate a recessive economy and precedes the official declaration of a recession. The yield curve is a late to mid range indicator. By the time you see the curve inversion you're already in trouble because it's caused by investors fleeing to a safe haven.
Stock values are ridiculously over valued in misplaced confidence in the tariff President. In the 2008 drop I lost half my investment value. I’m not making that same mistake again. I moved my money into bonds weeks ago before this inverted news came out. I’m glad I did.
Craig Wheeless just be careful. Governments have much higher debt now and so are more likely to go bankrupt. Of course, less likely than a business, but they're not perfect.
@@twat240 Well put. I wrote an essay about electing incompetent presidents. Please tell me what you think. And I quote This might explain why America have a long history of electing incompetent presidents. The US have a 22 trillion in debts and those debts are borrowed times. Nobody gives a fark about the debts because they keep electing an incompetent president to wracked the economy, motivate the other side to elect a smart president who know to fix the problems, such as recovery from a recession, make the economy great. The other side will spread lies to undermine the smart president on his achievements and they would elected an incompetent president who like to reverse change from the previous to make him look like he's doing job, then brag about how great the economy is by giving corporations large tax cuts and dive the economy off a cliff through stupid trade war that benefits no one. It's scary to see history keep repeating itself, generations after generations. In 2018, Amazon paid $0 in taxes on record profit of $11 billion. 2018 was the second year in a row that the e-commerce giant was able to avoid paying taxes. There are 60 big companies who paid $0 in taxes under Trump law. Amazon is joined on the list by other big companies raking in big profits, including Delta Airlines (DAL), Chevron (CVX), Netflix (NFLX), and General Motors (GM). “Instead of paying $16.4 billion in taxes at the 21 percent statutory corporate tax rate,” ITEP noted, “these companies enjoyed a net corporate tax rebate of $4.3 billion.” Seeing those numbers, I get depressed too. I wish this report would cover it. Maybe they should created a distraction to fire up the base? How about targeting undocumented immigrants? Start by separating family from their kids and then lock up their kids in cages? Thats like killing two birds with one stone. First, it look like the trump administration is doing us all a favor. Secondly, it's the best distraction cover up future problems. Wait, does this problems has to do with the trump administration colluding with the Russians? Where is the proof then!? You don't need proof. All you need is a common sense. Do you still remember about the Russians sowing discord in American, for the 2016 election? This might explain why China has specific search engine censored. Sowing discord is very dangerous and damaging. You might be asking, why it's dangerous and damaging? Well, we first need to go back and understand why Trump secretary of the State, Rex Tillerson called the president a moron before he resigned. And then you have the British ambassador, who also called the president a moron before he resigned. Trump top generals resigned one by one, starting with Maddog general Mattias who disagree with the president and then John Kelly resigned, his advice for his replacement: "Get out if you have a chance". So I went and did some research on why and this is what I found. Business Genius Trump Lost More Money Than Anyone in America Between 1985-1994 The “art of the deal” apparently involves losing hundreds of millions of dollars year after year, according to a new report from the New York Times. This might explain why he has to hide his tax returns? Why? Because he doesn't want us to know that he's a bad businessman, who ultimately lead 6 of his business going into bankruptcy? And now the stock market is tumbling and the American farmers are suffering due to the prolong of the trade war. Putin succeeds at sowing discord. He was able to kill two birds with one stone. First, he gave us an incompetent president and secondly, he watches as America economy getting destroy. Yes, this is true as the recession is looming due to the tax cut for corporations and the trade war with China. Source www.axios.com/nbc-tillerson-called-trump-a-moron-almost-resigned-1513305962-a7f5fab2-7c17-44e7-a7e7-05eee5cae723.html Source www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/business/economy/economy-recession.html Source www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/companies-paying-zero-taxes-trump-law-155944124.html Source www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-taxes-lost-money-832667/ Source www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/trump-china-trade-war-bailout-farmers-losses-1455101%3famp=1
condorX2 "spread lies about the opposition" - should talk about how Trump hired Steve bannon for his campaign - the vice president of Cambridge Analytica who literally stole data for billions of people and used it to make personalized propaganda adverts without anyone knowing. And proof of Russian collusion? You do need proof. Hence, Cambridge Analytica. The majority of it's leaders are russian, married to Russians, have businesses in Russia, or are funded by Russia - massively funded and we're going to go to court in the UK over it due to meddling in the Brexit campaign. They shut down so they could legally burn the evidence, but are now working for another company (funded by the same parent company, with the same staff) similarly to AggregateIQ - again with the same parent company. And the trade war benefits Bannon. His on record belief about politics is that you "have to break, destroy the economy before you can remould and fix it". Russia believes in crippling the west, hence their common goal. Furthermore with Putin, he funded Cambridge Analytica and similar for the Leave.EU campaign (who illegally got Russian funding via Aaron Banks, and we KNOW he visited Russia multiple times and his donations are NOT from the UK) in order to disrupt the EU. Which has happened. The UK is heading for recession. So will Ireland from NI,/Irish conflict as the good Friday agreement is terminated, along with Italy and Germany in recession. Also 99% of all cyber attacks come from China or Russia (and maybe North Korea I think, this may have stopped though) So, America (the Yield curve inverted) and the EU (MANY countries have shattered relations and/or a recession coming) are failing as global superpowers. All are heading for recessions with high debt that can't be repaid - letting China (who Russia is good friends with) take over... Especially as they own 30% of US bonds/debt that when America default on, will be in DEEP shit with. Or they can stop buying entirely, hike debt prices up, crippling the economy more. As well as this causing depreciation for the dollar and appreciation of the Yuan and if they suddenly stop QE and printing money (decreasing/increasing supply when they stop buying them) meaning their import heavy industries will be crippled. We're fucked. The statistics have been admitted by the US, UK, Chinese government and likely don't need sources, they can be found anywhere really. Search for "the guardian Cambridge Analytica" if you want a completely trustable source, maybe the Netflix's "the great hack" but it's not the most unbiased, and it's a little shit. For Cambridge Analytica illegal funding, they were going to trial when they shut down and you can find many articles from the UK (don't trust Daily Mail, the dialysis express, the sun, etc. Use BBC, Independent, guardian). Evidence is needed, and we have plenty of it. Oh and also Russian diplomats emailed Julian Assange (he released the Hillary email scandal which helped trump) and even Trump's son about helping him get presidency. Good luck, soz for the late response.
Economic blowups generally occur when there is too much OPTIMISM in the markets. This is such a good predictor of market crashes that it's considered an indicator of trouble ahead. Called "contrary indicators" it indicates the point where everyone who is going to invest has invested, and that there will be a trend for selling over buying. Name the market: stocks, commodities, housing etc are all effected.
Indeed. Like astrology. The more people you can gather to believe this, the more the short sellers become happy. Giving uncertainty about Brexit and Trumps trade war, this feeds the feeling that it will happen.
@@Galileosays As long as the short sellers are in a small MINORITY. Market bottoms are signaled by massive PESSIMISM. Bear market rallies happen when there are too many short sellers that have to cover.
This might explain why America have a long history of electing incompetent presidents. The US have a 22 trillion in debts and those debts are borrowed times. Nobody gives a fark about the debts because they keep electing an incompetent president to wracked the economy, motivate the other side to elect a smart president who know to fix the problems, such as recovery from a recession, make the economy great. The other side will spread lies to undermine the smart president on his achievements and elect an incompetent president, who likes to brag about the economy by giving corporations tax cuts and dive the economy off a cliff through stupid trade war that benefits no one. It's scary to see history keep repeating itself, generations after generations. In 2018, Amazon paid $0 in taxes on record profit of $11 billion. 2018 was the second year in a row that the e-commerce giant was able to avoid paying taxes. There are 60 big companies who paid $0 in taxes under Trump law. Amazon is joined on the list by other big companies raking in big profits, including Delta Airlines (DAL), Chevron (CVX), Netflix (NFLX), and General Motors (GM). “Instead of paying $16.4 billion in taxes at the 21 percent statutory corporate tax rate,” ITEP noted, “these companies enjoyed a net corporate tax rebate of $4.3 billion.” Seeing those numbers, I get depressed too. I wish this report would cover it. Maybe they should created a distraction to fire up the base? How about targeting undocumented immigrants? Start by separating family from their kids and then lock up their kids in cages? Thats like killing two birds with one stone. First, it look like the trump administration is doing us all a favor. Secondly, it's the best distraction cover up future problems. Wait, does this problems has to do with the trump administration colluding with the Russians? Where is the proof then!? You don't need proof. All you need is a common sense. Do you still remember about the Russians sowing discord in American, for the 2016 election? This might explain why China has specific search engine censored. Sowing discord is very dangerous and damaging. You might be asking, why it's dangerous and damaging? Well, we first need to go back and understand why Trump secretary of the State, Rex Tillerson called the president a moron before he resigned. And then you have the British ambassador, who also called the president a moron before he resigned. Trump top generals resigned one by one, starting with Maddog general Mattias who disagree with the president and then John Kelly resigned, his advice for his replacement: "Get out if you have a chance". So I went and did some research on why and this is what I found. Business Genius Trump Lost More Money Than Anyone in America Between 1985-1994 The “art of the deal” apparently involves losing hundreds of millions of dollars year after year, according to a new report from the New York Times. This might explain why he has to hide his tax returns? Why? Because he doesn't want us to know that he's a bad businessman, who ultimately lead 6 of his business going into bankruptcy? And now the stock market is tumbling and the American farmers are suffering due to the prolong of the trade war. Putin succeeds at sowing discord. He was able to kill two birds with one stone. First, he gave us an incompetent president and secondly, he watches as America economy getting destroy. Yes, this is true as the recession is looming due to the tax cut for corporations and the trade war with China. Source www.axios.com/nbc-tillerson-called-trump-a-moron-almost-resigned-1513305962-a7f5fab2-7c17-44e7-a7e7-05eee5cae723.html Source www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/business/economy/economy-recession.html Source www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/companies-paying-zero-taxes-trump-law-155944124.html Source www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-taxes-lost-money-832667/ Source www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/trump-china-trade-war-bailout-farmers-losses-1455101%3famp=1
They didn't fix the structural problems that created the last crash, they just allowed a giant debt forgiveness for overinflated real estate assets then proceeded to reinflate again with more corporate and public/private debt. The current valuations in all asset classes and serviceable debt levels are unsustainable.
Avneesh Singh Tomar ji, how you landed in America from India where the cows are roaming in Delhi and the people believe the poop is holy. Ha ha ha ha ha ha.
@@ebranigan8599 They knew there is a problem on the real estate, junk bond. Also, the bank behind it could be in trouble. However, they didn't predict there will be a recession. If they did, they only need to purchase put on stocks.
good point, I am often confused by statement like this, it sounds like the recessions just come out of nowhere with no significant signs and there will always be a circle, no matter how the parameters have changed
I know most people fear recession but I see it as a great opportunity. There are ways to make money no matter what direction the economic tide is going. The yield curve is only one indicator and it is a reactive indicator at that. There are many others that I wish they would have talked about here. I am confident that this recession is coming and in the summer of 2018 I predicted that it would come in October of 2019. I still feel that is a strong possibility however there are some tailwinds for the US economy in particular. Some of the tailwinds for the US economy is a strong US dollar and a very strong labor market. The labor market is getting even stronger because of demographics, specifically Baby Boomers. Baby Boomers are leaving the job market yet still have a lot of buying power. I think that having a tight labor market can be a double edged sword. On one side unemployment is low and this puts cash in to households bank accounts to spend. On the other, low unemployment could push up wages and inflation which will push up interest rates. There are other things that can also push up inflation like the protectionist policies that are currently being pursued. Then there is Brexit. I think it will be an almost perfect storm of trade policy, labor market tension, and a massively over leveraged consumer that leads to this recession. I think it could be one of the biggest ever.
I completely agree with you @scott. You've put much of what I've been thinking into words, and you did it well. I'm mentally prepared for it, and I think I'm quite resilient, but I've been feeling it building for some time.
@Andrés one major opportunity is when prices drop, to buy assets like my mom used to buy cloths at a Kmart going out of business sale. I mean houses 30%-50% today's prices. Stocks, same deal 30%-50% off! And, and interest rates are almost 0%, so there deals to be made. You just have to have a small lump of cash, good credit, positive cashflow and not have already over extended yourself and you should be able to take advantage as well. It helps if your cashflow comes from recession proof passive income streams, but not necessary.
@@tobbe5933 bankers have nothing to do with this recession? trump gave the billionaires tax cuts and the fed slashed interest rates. too much easy money and now the trouble is in the horizon.
It'd be nice to see a study of Yield Curves - Which ones "matter" - in that they have had predictive power. Also, an overview - Which Yield Curves have become and are becoming less predictive or have no predictive power. What's the trend? Which ones are getting better? Worse? No change? I assume The U.S. Dollar makes the U.S. Yield Curve the strongest predictor because of the U.S. position as the foremost trading currency and role as Guarantor attract capital. However, I would expect to have realized a weakening trend as the World Economy Globalised with other currencies strengthening, especially the Chinese Yuan and Renembi. Thank you Economist. You've been one of my most favorite media over the years.
It's time to start saving so you can jump head first into the stock market when everyone else is panic selling.. Recessions are the most exciting time to be an investor, so long as you don't end up losing your job, then you won't have anything to invest.
Whereas, in a fair world, only sockpuppet ultra-wrong shills would suffer when the false economics of populist authoritarian idiots crash the economy yet again.
The economy is famously difficult to predict, but one thing we know for certain is that there will always be someone predict a recession that's "just around the corner."
Ahmed Ali it is used in manufacturing and electronics is it not? No matter what, in a global recession if it increases in price avoid it like a plague. I've seen a lot wanting to invest into it as it has never disappointed them. A gold speculative bubble will probably be more damaging than the housing crash in '07.
Thomas Headley why was the housing bubble so dangerous? It's because of how severely banks invested into it. Without realising it was a bubble. Banks are going to invest into gold for the same reason as you, as it's the safest option, but now there's a huge influx of people investing as they expect the price to rise. They're investing based solely on its monetary value and not for the value of the good to them. That's a bubble, and if banks invest, it'll be more dangerous than a housing crash. It's a universally transported good, it won't just be a US gold crash, it'll be global.
Thomas Headley no fucking shit. And if they're heavily in demand, especially if there's no more being produced, the price inflates heavily. And if banks have heavily invested - exactly like they did with houses - the effects would be the same. I fail to see your reasoning on how the quantity affects the outcome in this situation, all that matters is who owns it and the price fall.
Generally correlation is not equal to causation. However, there is so much herd mentality and with everyone saying that a recession is coming, investors will start selling stocks and eventually lead to a recession.
The current American administration is definitely inclined towards a completely free-market economy which dictates that all the regulation necessary to control bad Investments should be removed. Besides, capitalism itself has an inherent flaw of leading the economy towards recession from time to time. So it's no wonder that the next recession is long overdue.
Capitalism is a moving contradiction, there was Bartering, then came Feudalism, now Capitalism.. What's next? I'm not a commie or anything, but all economic systems will come to an end at one point, and soon the people will be tired of this "Economic Cycle"
@@TheChickenRiceBowl Well the economy is doing "great" ! Only if you're rich, sure we recovered most of the jobs, but what about wages compared to the inflation... :/
Kris Carlson specifically because of automation and innovation meaning the benefits of capitalism (people who work with a profit incentive are more productive, and make more wages for themselves, and meaning we don't necessarily need competition to be very competitive) are much lower and the costs of socialism are also lower (lack of profit incentive, AI helping innovation without a profit incentive, etc.). Socialism is by no means perfect yet, but we're moving to a mixed economy - look at how many industries in the EU are nationalised and more productive than privatised counterparts. Predatory capitalism is just somehow more rampant, so America really needs to move towards more government control. Healthcare and high food standards are necessities, it's a disgrace you don't have them yet anyway. I personally think UBI is needed, but that's radical and should be done slowly to align with how it's done in Alaska. Socialism, in its true definition (the American use of the word, especially by every politician, is wrong), is the next stage. But not yet. It's a slow transition of nationalisation.
1:21 - 1:30 I still don't quite get the correlation between more investors buying long-term bonds and the long-term rates going down because of that. Could anyone explain that?
Bonds have a primary market (where the bonds are first sold) and a secondary market (where they can be resold at a greater or lesser price). In the primary market, the issuer of the bond determines the yield (which never changes) and the market buys as much or as little of the bond as it wants. In the secondary market, the effective yield depends on the resale price. The yield curve here relates to the secondary market. If investors would rather be tied into long term bonds than the price of those will go up, causing the effective yield to come down, and vice versa.
Fiat money...high government debt, high corporate debt. ••.lagging indicator consumer strength..when job market begins trend downward watch out the bulls will run for the exit.
Exactly. I have just written a comment above: "I suppose, recession should be very surprising to all. Everyone can't earn on it just watched some videos and read some headlines. Have you heard that market is growing on pessimism and falling on optimism? Since May, especially in September we had huge pessimism about recession... And recently stock market boomed again and appl, msft, etc made its new highs. And now some people start thinking optimistically again... Now some people think that recession will come after us president election. And now they are safe. But it is not so easy, everyone can't earn on recession.Stock market falls unpredictable and very abrupt. Another words, would it fall if all people converting stocks to cash? Hugely and wisely control their money managment? But what if market movers make illusion of optimism and then people start putting their cash in stocks and then market movers selling their stocks on high? I think that is the panic. Caused by optimism but not by pessimism. What do you think? And do you remember that many people claim that 2018 should be the time for crisis? But stock market boomed on pessimism?"
neglecting education, healthcare & infrastructure in favor of an inflated military budged & warmongering leads to a recession?! who would have guessed that ?!
Investors exhaust much resources to trying to predict the future state of the economy. In doing so, they need to anticipate what other investors are thinking about the economy. To have an inverted yield curve it suggests that, across the entire market, investors suspect the US economy to contract. Contractions can be caused by many complex factors, such as markets trying to reevaluate the true value of goods or shortages in important resources. Some have claimed this event was caused by the upcoming trade tariffs with China. Regardless, it isn’t so much that investors know something the rest of us do not - it’s more that, being financially INVESTED in the market, investors are more sensitive to changes in policy and the economy which in turn influences their investment decisions. News of tarrifs may not alarm you and I, but investors trying to make returns on a competitive margin will be highly sensitive to that kind of a thing. That results in a complex feedback loop that can cause recessions. Hopefully that clears things up.
You can't look at one chart and say: look a recession is coming. 1. Nobody can predict economic growth or decline. 2. There are many many many more indicators (such as debt cycles, productivity per capita etc.). 3. Economies are driven by emotion (including trust in the markets).
This might explain why America have a long history of electing incompetent presidents. The US have a 22 trillion in debts and those debts are borrowed times. Nobody gives a fark about the debts because they keep electing an incompetent president to wracked the economy, motivate the other side to elect a smart president who know to fix the problems, such as recovery from a recession, make the economy great. The other side will spread lies to undermine the smart president on his achievements and elect an incompetent president, who likes to brag about the economy by giving corporations tax cuts and dive the economy off a cliff through stupid trade war that benefits no one. It's scary to see history keep repeating itself, generations after generations. In 2018, Amazon paid $0 in taxes on record profit of $11 billion. 2018 was the second year in a row that the e-commerce giant was able to avoid paying taxes. There are 60 big companies who paid $0 in taxes under Trump law. Amazon is joined on the list by other big companies raking in big profits, including Delta Airlines (DAL), Chevron (CVX), Netflix (NFLX), and General Motors (GM). “Instead of paying $16.4 billion in taxes at the 21 percent statutory corporate tax rate,” ITEP noted, “these companies enjoyed a net corporate tax rebate of $4.3 billion.” Seeing those numbers, I get depressed too. I wish this report would cover it. Maybe they should created a distraction to fire up the base? How about targeting undocumented immigrants? Start by separating family from their kids and then lock up their kids in cages? Thats like killing two birds with one stone. First, it look like the trump administration is doing us all a favor. Secondly, it's the best distraction cover up future problems. Wait, does this problems has to do with the trump administration colluding with the Russians? Where is the proof then!? You don't need proof. All you need is a common sense. Do you still remember about the Russians sowing discord in American, for the 2016 election? This might explain why China has specific search engine censored. Sowing discord is very dangerous and damaging. You might be asking, why it's dangerous and damaging? Well, we first need to go back and understand why Trump secretary of the State, Rex Tillerson called the president a moron before he resigned. And then you have the British ambassador, who also called the president a moron before he resigned. Trump top generals resigned one by one, starting with Maddog general Mattias who disagree with the president and then John Kelly resigned, his advice for his replacement: "Get out if you have a chance". So I went and did some research on why and this is what I found. Business Genius Trump Lost More Money Than Anyone in America Between 1985-1994 The “art of the deal” apparently involves losing hundreds of millions of dollars year after year, according to a new report from the New York Times. This might explain why he has to hide his tax returns? Why? Because he doesn't want us to know that he's a bad businessman, who ultimately lead 6 of his business going into bankruptcy? And now the stock market is tumbling and the American farmers are suffering due to the prolong of the trade war. Putin succeeds at sowing discord. He was able to kill two birds with one stone. First, he gave us an incompetent president and secondly, he watches as America economy getting destroy. Yes, this is true as the recession is looming due to the tax cut for corporations and the trade war with China. Source www.axios.com/nbc-tillerson-called-trump-a-moron-almost-resigned-1513305962-a7f5fab2-7c17-44e7-a7e7-05eee5cae723.html Source www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/business/economy/economy-recession.html Source www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/companies-paying-zero-taxes-trump-law-155944124.html Source www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-taxes-lost-money-832667/ Source www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/trump-china-trade-war-bailout-farmers-losses-1455101%3famp=1
There was a temporary market jolt because of an “inversion” (short term Treasuries paying more than long-term Treasuries). Inversions supposedly predict recessions; they came before six out of the last. But inversions, in of themselves, are just predictions being made by bond buyers. People who make predictions based on inversions simply are saying, “Bond buyers predict a recession, so I will, too.”
@@LiliumPetal That's why I don't live in the US. I just take advantage of their market :/ in my country we have nearly no homelessness no matter if it's a recession or not. I like the free market, but i'm also fine with paying 40-50% tax for free healthcare, schooling and basically everything. Homelessness is terrible, but i focus on earning as much money as i can so that i can help as many people as i can :/ I can't really stop the recession so why not take advantage of it to later help others?
If there were no tax considerations it would be a lot easier to prepare for recession by shifting the portfolio. Now I have just gathered some dry powder for the moment I move it to stock market.
so let's say they had found a giant vein of gold in a mine...and all the money they have printed was backed by it. The effect would be the same. Gold is an arbitrary unit of account the same as all other money.
Everyone is talking about recessions right now. The key is 1, be ready for the recession. 2, make sure you have the money to buy assets, stocks, houses, metals, crypto, in the recession. 😉
The inverted yeild curve of 2019 is in anticipation of steadying or deflationary prices. The major cause being the Fed's unwinding of its massive 4 trillion USD balance sheet and the retirement of that liquidity. The minor cause is the uprising of cryptocurrencies and the steady or set supply of currencies in the cryptocurrency framework which vastly differs from the fractional reserve system we've had for the last century.
When the private sector becomes austere, it is the government which should be crazy enough to spend. Most liquidity injected into the economy via monetary policy will only end up being saved, hence not doing much for growth.
The US government should cut spending by $2 trillion and abolish the Federal Reserve. There would be a sharp downturn and downward multiplier, but at least the misallocation of resources (caused by expansionary monetary policy) would be corrected and the private sector would have far more room for growth given greater factor availability.
Look how scared shitless we are about losing our money.. slightest hint of trouble, and everyone is worried. imagine we cared this about protecting the environment in which we live.
what you predict usually not come, and when u r not ready,usually it comes. Im sure the inverted yield this time mean no recession because when it shows,gov become ready to anticipate it so the worst not come.
I feel the yield curve perhaps this time might not be as reliable as before, simply because the global banks outside USA has negative interests rates. If people are getting negative interest rates, it makes sense fir investors to seek the USA treasury bonds. We are living in unique times and no one knows all I know ISA is the best neighbor in a bad neighborhood.
OK, during the decades spanning these eight recessions, the yield curve has inverted and then reverted back to normal TWICE without a recession occurring in between (once at the end of 1989 and once again at the end of 2007). That means this indicator predicted 10 of the 8 past recessions! Further, for the eight truly predictive yield curve inversion events, the following recession arrived anywhere from one year to two years AFTER the inversion first occurred. So... consider the implications of using this indicator today to guide your future economic plans: It predicts 25% more recessions than actually do occur, and when correct, it predicts that the next recession will happen somewhere between 2021 and 2022. Hmmmm.... how useful is this recession indicator again?
This line, together with the unemployment rate right now, make it 100% certain that the US is going to have a recession in less than 4 years. The only question is when.
most businesses are no longer profitable, then massive bankrupcy, then surging unemployment ratio, work class depends on employment will suffer the most.
Higher unemployment, an increase in divorces, an increase in homelessness, social unrest, bankruptcies, increase in domestic violence and drug use, and blaming the poor and immigrants for the situation. It's what Republicans create and run on.
well just putting out the news that long term interest isn't gunna pay out as much as short term will probably change the yield curve. anyways the whole yield curve evidence doesn't have a big enough sample size.
Good, but it could have gone deeper into the problems with the Fed's monetization of US Debt, which is what it does when it starts buying Treasury Bonds on credit.
Great now they just prolong the inevitable via quantitative easing...where is the common folks "quantitative easing" ? Can I quantitative ease my taxes..!?
You do also realise that speculation and fear of a recession not only worsens it but also brings it a lot earlier. Please, if you don’t want recessions so frequently stop spreading fear of one!
Nah, it's good that they do this as it keeps the bull market going. Having constant minor corrections over the years has kept this thing strong. It clears out the weak hands and lets the party keep rolling.
Wow you're basically saying "stop informing people about basic economic concepts" PS the person who introduced the predictive abilities said that people should compare the 6 month bond to the 10y bond and that curve hasn't inverted
This line ? No, it is a Kondratiev wave. Or any other hypothesis that is used to find a mathematical correlation. The point is, there is no causal correlation.
They’re still blaming Obama. Believe me. Obama Derangement Syndrome is real AF. People were breathing into brown paper bags as soon as they heard his name. Fox News turned the propaganda machine up to 12 and kept it there for 8 long years and brainwashed the living shit out of everyone. Pisses me off that Americans are so stupid and still watch Faux News.
fisherman gt it's a fixed payment amount. A bond is a promise to pay a fixed amount every year for xxx years. For example, a US bond sells a bond paying 500 every year for a year. Let's say a lot of people are willing to buy it, it goes to the highest 'bidder', and the highest anyone's willing to pay for it is 25k. It's an interest rate of 2%. When the stock market is gloomy, there's no safe investments, or even saving is a bad idea, then bonds become more attractive. This is because it's backed by the fucking government, it's the least likely, to ever go bankrupt. So, demand rises. A rise in demand means people are willing to pay more and so the price goes to 50k. This means that (as the yearly payment is still only 500), the interest rate is now only 1%. It can even be negative if there's incredible lack of confidence or depreciation, if the US anticipates this of course and sets the initial rate. Higher demand = higher price = lower interest rate. No one sets it.
@@twat240 Well, no one expects the government to go bust, but it still might. The debt is 22 trillion dollars and counting (106 percent of GDP), the deficit is more than 300 billions this year, more than double last years deficit.
The issuer sets the interest rate. Interest rates might fluctuate because the issuer may need more or less money, the length of the bond might change, speculation that the issuer is financially unstable might arise, and other factors that influence the status quo. In most bonds there is a clause that allows lenders to sell their bond to others, giving rise to a secondary market.
We shouldn't have a recession. We didn't have a bubble burst like the tech bubble or housing bubble, we didn't have a traumatic event like 9/11 slow spending, and we aren't at war with any new countries so we don't have anything to trigger a recession imo.
Alas, it's so easy for the government the reverse the so-called inverted yield curve, JUST issue more long term bonds, forcing down the price of long term bonds resulting in higher yields for long term bonds.... BIG JOKE!
Marcio Barbosa please FO to Brazil where the police shoots you first. No question asked. What shit are you talking "create a group?" Does Brazil has 9000 Metric tons gold? Brazil is the biggest corrupt county in the world. Exporting sand for sugar in the 90's
Cash isn't king. It's good to have cash when opportunities arise...but just holding cash for the sake of it is equivalent to owning a legal pad... only useful when you use it.
I think if a lot of people lived below their means this wouldn’t affect them as much as a matter a fact help you if you have good savings. This is a good time to go shopping everything is on sale! 🤑
@@Someone-cr8cj bruh...have you been to England hahaha. It's a move to leave our.... *Cough*.."evil conspiring dictators'". Democracy is overrated. We end up fucking shooting ourselves, we don't fucking deserve it. Let's bring the monarchy back.
Since when does capitalist ceo and Republican care about common man wage and benefit? Let the poor suffer. If anything job will move back from China if people are willing to work for competetjvie wage with the Chinese less than $1 an hr
What are you even talking about? Do you even know how tax code works? Even with tax breaks the “one percent” has to pay SOOO much more than everyone else. In fact they STILL pay for basically the whole government to run. Their “cushion” is all the money they have haha.
@@tommytmt I know that the top wealthiest 500+ American's don't pay nearly what the wealthy did 50 years ago. And a lot of administrations were Republican with very high tax rates double plus today's standards. That's how our countries infrastructure was built and how city college's were so cheap and so many other great things. You are correct they do fund America. But If we are honest about the abuse of government funds and policy creation they favor the wealthy a bit too much. So much so that some major companies don't pay any taxes. Some hide it overseas to avoid paying at all. While a constant reduction for anything for the people. Whatever it is. You're OK with that and that's perfectly fine. I am not.
@@tommytmt I'm not disagreeing with that. My point is that the wealthy paid far more in taxes historically then they do now. In the range of 80% during Republican administration(S) no less. Because of that extra investment, there was a significant bump in people getting college degrees for instance. Because the States were getting grants from the federal government. I think the largest in history*. (I would need to check that.*) Now policy is being dictated and created by the very industries our government is charged with overseeing? Not OK.
Given recent price movements, inflation, and the status of the economy, I contend that choosing the ideal asset would be challenging.
Ever considered financial planning? My ptt growth has significantly increased throughout this down market. By essentially only adhering to my coach's instructions, I was able to scale from $18K to $72K. Knowing when to enter and exit is more important.
@@maryalchester Therefore, prior to investing in the market, financial planning is crucial. To choose the asset that is most appropriate for your time and resources, it is important to seek professional guidance. Analysis is best carried out by a professional or with their direction because there is more to the market than just technicals and up-front fundamentals. Since getting therapy, I've noticed a substantial difference.
@@maryalchester wow…and nice breakdown on debt on your channel. Who is your coach?
@@aliyunko9689 After going through a few, it's better to check out locally, but for now, Juliet Eve Downey has been a huge help too though. A little low on roi and high on rate but better safe.
@@mvanwie Our continual temptation to try to handle things on our own is what makes our finances unstable. It's interesting that you recommended checking up Juliet Eve Downey because she would certainly agree that delegating is inevitable and that time is crucial. Highly priced tho.
Joke's on you America, In Italy we are still in recession 👌
Join BRI👍
The same in Brazil.
HaZZard. Italy has Papa Rome, telling give me donation to fill my church coffer. American has Fort Knox which holds 9000 metric tons of gold, and gold is sold openly in all US banks. What the shit are you talking? "Jokes on you America" Come to US to buy gold coins in kilos if you have US dollars where it is printed "In God we Trust." Why Rome has not printed on their money "In Jesus we trust for your donation? Because its worthless paper.
Francis Godinho what a fucking idiot. Clearly don't understand self deprecating humour. How old are you?
😂😂😂
Of course. Why not? I mean, I'm this close to finally having my head above shit. So it would be only natural for this to happen.
That made me laugh!
yo dead ass.
U deserve this
remember: only losers get rekt during a recession. Use the opportunity to create some substantial wealth for yourself
It's precisely because you nearly have your head above water that the bankers will stop that from going any further. Can't have the plebs or indentured servants build wealth.
The dying economy and shrinking production indicate a recessive economy and precedes the official declaration of a recession. The yield curve is a late to mid range indicator. By the time you see the curve inversion you're already in trouble because it's caused by investors fleeing to a safe haven.
most of this video shows late indicators
I lost half my investment value in the 2008 drop. I’m not making that same mistake again. I already moved my money into bonds weeks ago.
@@Mote78 nice
Kim Welch. Where is safe haven? My safe haven is Fort Knox where I keep all my gold. Where is safe haven?
@@Mote78 But hope you're well diversified. You need growth regardless in order to beat inflation.
Isn't it always the same, every time you get ahead in life something like this happens.
That hit me hard
Maryanne Rachel hey don’t worry about it
Just keep pushing you will get there
Exactly. Ying and Yang.
Especially when you're poor. The rich will be ok as usual
What goes up must come down. Whenever economic growth outstrips the growth of tangible asset it's a bubble waiting to be popped.
Yield curve inverts: "Ah Shit here we go again!"
hahahaha
Guess I’m broke again.
Every time I watch these videos I expect the comments to be written by some old people interested in investing but instead I get memes. Love it
"Oh boy, here I go killing again."
I lost half my investment value in the 2008 drop. I’m not making that same mistake again. I moved my money into bonds.
Watch everyone sell stocks in panic, then that causes the recession instead of the actual curve.
Hence why economics is a clown field that should be given no respect, its no better than sociology.
@@mememachine5244 the real problem is that most economists don't understand economics
Stock values are ridiculously over valued in misplaced confidence in the tariff President. In the 2008 drop I lost half my investment value. I’m not making that same mistake again. I moved my money into bonds weeks ago before this inverted news came out. I’m glad I did.
Meme Machine Dude you’re wrong, if it wasn’t for the economist of today we’ll experience the Great Depression every generation since 1929
@@jasonmason6910 where do you think we are now?
Excellent summary of some relevant econometric indicators.
L.O.L.
I lost half my investment value in the 2008 drop. I’m not making that same mistake again. I moved my money into bonds.
Craig Wheeless just be careful. Governments have much higher debt now and so are more likely to go bankrupt. Of course, less likely than a business, but they're not perfect.
@@twat240 Well put.
I wrote an essay about electing incompetent presidents. Please tell me what you think. And I quote
This might explain why America have a long history of electing incompetent presidents.
The US have a 22 trillion in debts and those debts are borrowed times.
Nobody gives a fark about the debts because they keep electing an incompetent president to wracked the economy, motivate the other side to elect a smart president who know to fix the problems, such as recovery from a recession, make the economy great. The other side will spread lies to undermine the smart president on his achievements and they would elected an incompetent president who like to reverse change from the previous to make him look like he's doing job, then brag about how great the economy is by giving corporations large tax cuts and dive the economy off a cliff through stupid trade war that benefits no one. It's scary to see history keep repeating itself, generations after generations.
In 2018, Amazon paid $0 in taxes on record profit of $11 billion. 2018 was the second year in a row that the e-commerce giant was able to avoid paying taxes.
There are 60 big companies who paid $0 in taxes under Trump law.
Amazon is joined on the list by other big companies raking in big profits, including Delta Airlines (DAL), Chevron (CVX), Netflix (NFLX), and General Motors (GM).
“Instead of paying $16.4 billion in taxes at the 21 percent statutory corporate tax rate,” ITEP noted, “these companies enjoyed a net corporate tax rebate of $4.3 billion.”
Seeing those numbers, I get depressed too. I wish this report would cover it.
Maybe they should created a distraction to fire up the base? How about targeting undocumented immigrants? Start by separating family from their kids and then lock up their kids in cages? Thats like killing two birds with one stone. First, it look like the trump administration is doing us all a favor. Secondly, it's the best distraction cover up future problems.
Wait, does this problems has to do with the trump administration colluding with the Russians? Where is the proof then!?
You don't need proof. All you need is a common sense.
Do you still remember about the Russians sowing discord in American, for the 2016 election?
This might explain why China has specific search engine censored. Sowing discord is very dangerous and damaging.
You might be asking, why it's dangerous and damaging? Well, we first need to go back and understand why Trump secretary of the State, Rex Tillerson called the president a moron before he resigned. And then you have the British ambassador, who also called the president a moron before he resigned. Trump top generals resigned one by one, starting with Maddog general Mattias who disagree with the president and then John Kelly resigned, his advice for his replacement: "Get out if you have a chance". So I went and did some research on why and this is what I found.
Business Genius Trump Lost More Money Than Anyone in America Between 1985-1994
The “art of the deal” apparently involves losing hundreds of millions of dollars year after year, according to a new report from the New York Times.
This might explain why he has to hide his tax returns? Why? Because he doesn't want us to know that he's a bad businessman, who ultimately lead 6 of his business going into bankruptcy?
And now the stock market is tumbling and the American farmers are suffering due to the prolong of the trade war.
Putin succeeds at sowing discord. He was able to kill two birds with one stone. First, he gave us an incompetent president and secondly, he watches as America economy getting destroy. Yes, this is true as the recession is looming due to the tax cut for corporations and the trade war with China.
Source
www.axios.com/nbc-tillerson-called-trump-a-moron-almost-resigned-1513305962-a7f5fab2-7c17-44e7-a7e7-05eee5cae723.html
Source
www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/business/economy/economy-recession.html
Source
www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/companies-paying-zero-taxes-trump-law-155944124.html
Source www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-taxes-lost-money-832667/
Source
www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/trump-china-trade-war-bailout-farmers-losses-1455101%3famp=1
condorX2 "spread lies about the opposition" - should talk about how Trump hired Steve bannon for his campaign - the vice president of Cambridge Analytica who literally stole data for billions of people and used it to make personalized propaganda adverts without anyone knowing.
And proof of Russian collusion? You do need proof. Hence, Cambridge Analytica. The majority of it's leaders are russian, married to Russians, have businesses in Russia, or are funded by Russia - massively funded and we're going to go to court in the UK over it due to meddling in the Brexit campaign. They shut down so they could legally burn the evidence, but are now working for another company (funded by the same parent company, with the same staff) similarly to AggregateIQ - again with the same parent company.
And the trade war benefits Bannon. His on record belief about politics is that you "have to break, destroy the economy before you can remould and fix it". Russia believes in crippling the west, hence their common goal.
Furthermore with Putin, he funded Cambridge Analytica and similar for the Leave.EU campaign (who illegally got Russian funding via Aaron Banks, and we KNOW he visited Russia multiple times and his donations are NOT from the UK) in order to disrupt the EU. Which has happened. The UK is heading for recession. So will Ireland from NI,/Irish conflict as the good Friday agreement is terminated, along with Italy and Germany in recession. Also 99% of all cyber attacks come from China or Russia (and maybe North Korea I think, this may have stopped though)
So, America (the Yield curve inverted) and the EU (MANY countries have shattered relations and/or a recession coming) are failing as global superpowers. All are heading for recessions with high debt that can't be repaid - letting China (who Russia is good friends with) take over... Especially as they own 30% of US bonds/debt that when America default on, will be in DEEP shit with. Or they can stop buying entirely, hike debt prices up, crippling the economy more. As well as this causing depreciation for the dollar and appreciation of the Yuan and if they suddenly stop QE and printing money (decreasing/increasing supply when they stop buying them) meaning their import heavy industries will be crippled. We're fucked.
The statistics have been admitted by the US, UK, Chinese government and likely don't need sources, they can be found anywhere really. Search for "the guardian Cambridge Analytica" if you want a completely trustable source, maybe the Netflix's "the great hack" but it's not the most unbiased, and it's a little shit. For Cambridge Analytica illegal funding, they were going to trial when they shut down and you can find many articles from the UK (don't trust Daily Mail, the dialysis express, the sun, etc. Use BBC, Independent, guardian).
Evidence is needed, and we have plenty of it. Oh and also Russian diplomats emailed Julian Assange (he released the Hillary email scandal which helped trump) and even Trump's son about helping him get presidency.
Good luck, soz for the late response.
Economics has significant physiological part. This might be a self-fulfilling prophecy..
justin han, of course, this information will definitely make it happen faster though, it’s just a matter of when...
Economic blowups generally occur when there is too much OPTIMISM in the markets. This is such a good predictor of market crashes that it's considered an indicator of trouble ahead. Called "contrary indicators" it indicates the point where everyone who is going to invest has invested, and that there will be a trend for selling over buying. Name the market: stocks, commodities, housing etc are all effected.
Indeed. Like astrology. The more people you can gather to believe this, the more the short sellers become happy. Giving uncertainty about Brexit and Trumps trade war, this feeds the feeling that it will happen.
@@Galileosays As long as the short sellers are in a small MINORITY. Market bottoms are signaled by massive PESSIMISM. Bear market rallies happen when there are too many short sellers that have to cover.
This might explain why America have a long history of electing incompetent presidents.
The US have a 22 trillion in debts and those debts are borrowed times.
Nobody gives a fark about the debts because they keep electing an incompetent president to wracked the economy, motivate the other side to elect a smart president who know to fix the problems, such as recovery from a recession, make the economy great. The other side will spread lies to undermine the smart president on his achievements and elect an incompetent president, who likes to brag about the economy by giving corporations tax cuts and dive the economy off a cliff through stupid trade war that benefits no one.
It's scary to see history keep repeating itself, generations after generations.
In 2018, Amazon paid $0 in taxes on record profit of $11 billion. 2018 was the second year in a row that the e-commerce giant was able to avoid paying taxes.
There are 60 big companies who paid $0 in taxes under Trump law.
Amazon is joined on the list by other big companies raking in big profits, including Delta Airlines (DAL), Chevron (CVX), Netflix (NFLX), and General Motors (GM).
“Instead of paying $16.4 billion in taxes at the 21 percent statutory corporate tax rate,” ITEP noted, “these companies enjoyed a net corporate tax rebate of $4.3 billion.”
Seeing those numbers, I get depressed too. I wish this report would cover it.
Maybe they should created a distraction to fire up the base? How about targeting undocumented immigrants? Start by separating family from their kids and then lock up their kids in cages? Thats like killing two birds with one stone. First, it look like the trump administration is doing us all a favor. Secondly, it's the best distraction cover up future problems.
Wait, does this problems has to do with the trump administration colluding with the Russians? Where is the proof then!?
You don't need proof. All you need is a common sense.
Do you still remember about the Russians sowing discord in American, for the 2016 election?
This might explain why China has specific search engine censored. Sowing discord is very dangerous and damaging.
You might be asking, why it's dangerous and damaging? Well, we first need to go back and understand why Trump secretary of the State, Rex Tillerson called the president a moron before he resigned. And then you have the British ambassador, who also called the president a moron before he resigned. Trump top generals resigned one by one, starting with Maddog general Mattias who disagree with the president and then John Kelly resigned, his advice for his replacement: "Get out if you have a chance". So I went and did some research on why and this is what I found.
Business Genius Trump Lost More Money Than Anyone in America Between 1985-1994
The “art of the deal” apparently involves losing hundreds of millions of dollars year after year, according to a new report from the New York Times.
This might explain why he has to hide his tax returns? Why? Because he doesn't want us to know that he's a bad businessman, who ultimately lead 6 of his business going into bankruptcy?
And now the stock market is tumbling and the American farmers are suffering due to the prolong of the trade war.
Putin succeeds at sowing discord. He was able to kill two birds with one stone. First, he gave us an incompetent president and secondly, he watches as America economy getting destroy. Yes, this is true as the recession is looming due to the tax cut for corporations and the trade war with China.
Source
www.axios.com/nbc-tillerson-called-trump-a-moron-almost-resigned-1513305962-a7f5fab2-7c17-44e7-a7e7-05eee5cae723.html
Source
www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/business/economy/economy-recession.html
Source
www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/companies-paying-zero-taxes-trump-law-155944124.html
Source www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-taxes-lost-money-832667/
Source
www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/trump-china-trade-war-bailout-farmers-losses-1455101%3famp=1
Ofcourse it has to happen the year I became an adult
I’m sorry that we are in the same shitbarn...
Hey, if you want someone to talk with, I am open to talking together!
I need the optamism...
Vienna The Grill by the time you grow old foggy, America will have over 12000 Metric tons of Gold in stock at Fort Knox.
Recession offers the same opportunities as an economic boom. Just be smart and don't invest in fruitless ventures.
During a recession realestate becomes much more accessible, buy smart and rent out and you win
Hey were all in this together bro...
:’(
They didn't fix the structural problems that created the last crash, they just allowed a giant debt forgiveness for overinflated real estate assets then proceeded to reinflate again with more corporate and public/private debt. The current valuations in all asset classes and serviceable debt levels are unsustainable.
When someone says "this time it's different" - sell everything and run.
You can run
You can hide
But you can't escape my
Craaaaaaashhhh 😂😂
Avneesh Singh Tomar ji, how you landed in America from India where the cows are roaming in Delhi and the people believe the poop is holy. Ha ha ha ha ha ha.
I did not knowingly experience a recession before. Did everyone in 2007/2008 expect a recession?
There were a few people such as Peter Schiff who warned that it would happen, but most people did not expect it.
Watch the movie 'The Big Short' on the few who knew..
@@ebranigan8599 They knew there is a problem on the real estate, junk bond. Also, the bank behind it could be in trouble. However, they didn't predict there will be a recession. If they did, they only need to purchase put on stocks.
07/08 was an Armageddon, not a recession.
good point, I am often confused by statement like this, it sounds like the recessions just come out of nowhere with no significant signs and there will always be a circle, no matter how the parameters have changed
I know most people fear recession but I see it as a great opportunity. There are ways to make money no matter what direction the economic tide is going. The yield curve is only one indicator and it is a reactive indicator at that. There are many others that I wish they would have talked about here. I am confident that this recession is coming and in the summer of 2018 I predicted that it would come in October of 2019. I still feel that is a strong possibility however there are some tailwinds for the US economy in particular. Some of the tailwinds for the US economy is a strong US dollar and a very strong labor market. The labor market is getting even stronger because of demographics, specifically Baby Boomers. Baby Boomers are leaving the job market yet still have a lot of buying power. I think that having a tight labor market can be a double edged sword. On one side unemployment is low and this puts cash in to households bank accounts to spend. On the other, low unemployment could push up wages and inflation which will push up interest rates. There are other things that can also push up inflation like the protectionist policies that are currently being pursued. Then there is Brexit. I think it will be an almost perfect storm of trade policy, labor market tension, and a massively over leveraged consumer that leads to this recession. I think it could be one of the biggest ever.
I completely agree with you @scott. You've put much of what I've been thinking into words, and you did it well. I'm mentally prepared for it, and I think I'm quite resilient, but I've been feeling it building for some time.
if you hoarding money for this yeah, but if not...your savings go bye bye
But what are the opportunities?
@Andrés one major opportunity is when prices drop, to buy assets like my mom used to buy cloths at a Kmart going out of business sale. I mean houses 30%-50% today's prices. Stocks, same deal 30%-50% off! And, and interest rates are almost 0%, so there deals to be made. You just have to have a small lump of cash, good credit, positive cashflow and not have already over extended yourself and you should be able to take advantage as well. It helps if your cashflow comes from recession proof passive income streams, but not necessary.
@@Scott-by9ks Ok got it. Thanks
I feel we’re heading for a ‘Peter Schiff Was Right’ feature film!
"Peter Schiff Was Finally Right" should be the more correct title
@@alfredhitchcock45 how about 'your mum was finally tight' :P
Around my industrial street so many warehouses just suddenly became vacant and available in the last 3 months. And this is in southern california.
In Pennsylvania, they have been empty since 2006. This is not a new Recession, this is a continuation of the last one.
Maybe we should focus on taking on Wall Street so we can avoid this from happening. Bernie has explained this very well actually.
Melon LOL you’re funny
Abraham Rodrgiuez huh
once you gullotine all the bankers recession will vanish into thin air. utopia always one mass grave away.
ali ismail Splitting the largest banks into smaller banks would mean that power was spread out an if one bank fails there won’t be a large recession.
@@tobbe5933 bankers have nothing to do with this recession? trump gave the billionaires tax cuts and the fed slashed interest rates. too much easy money and now the trouble is in the horizon.
It'd be nice to see a study of Yield Curves - Which ones "matter" - in that they have had predictive power.
Also, an overview - Which Yield Curves have become and are becoming less predictive or have no predictive power.
What's the trend? Which ones are getting better? Worse? No change?
I assume The U.S. Dollar makes the U.S. Yield Curve the strongest predictor because of the U.S. position as the foremost trading currency and role as Guarantor attract capital.
However, I would expect to have realized a weakening trend as the World Economy Globalised with other currencies strengthening, especially the Chinese Yuan and Renembi.
Thank you Economist. You've been one of my most favorite media over the years.
Nothing to see here! Spend spend spend!
It's time to start saving so you can jump head first into the stock market when everyone else is panic selling.. Recessions are the most exciting time to be an investor, so long as you don't end up losing your job, then you won't have anything to invest.
Speaking of self-fulfilling prophecies .............
Whereas, in a fair world, only sockpuppet ultra-wrong shills would suffer when the false economics of populist authoritarian idiots crash the economy yet again.
@@tammcd yeah but you're first random people walking in the country tho?
Poorly-constructed, illogical irrelevances seem to be par for the shill / troll / sockpuppet course
The economy is famously difficult to predict, but one thing we know for certain is that there will always be someone predict a recession that's "just around the corner."
Gold has never disappointed me
The only thing that I don't like about gold is it doesn't produce any value however It is the last resort for wealth which I don't have 😂😭
Ahmed Ali it is used in manufacturing and electronics is it not? No matter what, in a global recession if it increases in price avoid it like a plague. I've seen a lot wanting to invest into it as it has never disappointed them.
A gold speculative bubble will probably be more damaging than the housing crash in '07.
Thomas Headley why was the housing bubble so dangerous? It's because of how severely banks invested into it. Without realising it was a bubble.
Banks are going to invest into gold for the same reason as you, as it's the safest option, but now there's a huge influx of people investing as they expect the price to rise. They're investing based solely on its monetary value and not for the value of the good to them. That's a bubble, and if banks invest, it'll be more dangerous than a housing crash. It's a universally transported good, it won't just be a US gold crash, it'll be global.
Thomas Headley no fucking shit. And if they're heavily in demand, especially if there's no more being produced, the price inflates heavily. And if banks have heavily invested - exactly like they did with houses - the effects would be the same. I fail to see your reasoning on how the quantity affects the outcome in this situation, all that matters is who owns it and the price fall.
Brilliant study
Generally correlation is not equal to causation. However, there is so much herd mentality and with everyone saying that a recession is coming, investors will start selling stocks and eventually lead to a recession.
Y'all called it
The current American administration is definitely inclined towards a completely free-market economy which dictates that all the regulation necessary to control bad Investments should be removed. Besides, capitalism itself has an inherent flaw of leading the economy towards recession from time to time. So it's no wonder that the next recession is long overdue.
Capitalism is a moving contradiction, there was Bartering, then came Feudalism, now Capitalism.. What's next? I'm not a commie or anything, but all economic systems will come to an end at one point, and soon the people will be tired of this "Economic Cycle"
I didn't know we ever got out of the last one.
@@TheChickenRiceBowl Well the economy is doing "great" ! Only if you're rich, sure we recovered most of the jobs, but what about wages compared to the inflation... :/
Kris Carlson specifically because of automation and innovation meaning the benefits of capitalism (people who work with a profit incentive are more productive, and make more wages for themselves, and meaning we don't necessarily need competition to be very competitive) are much lower and the costs of socialism are also lower (lack of profit incentive, AI helping innovation without a profit incentive, etc.). Socialism is by no means perfect yet, but we're moving to a mixed economy - look at how many industries in the EU are nationalised and more productive than privatised counterparts.
Predatory capitalism is just somehow more rampant, so America really needs to move towards more government control. Healthcare and high food standards are necessities, it's a disgrace you don't have them yet anyway. I personally think UBI is needed, but that's radical and should be done slowly to align with how it's done in Alaska.
Socialism, in its true definition (the American use of the word, especially by every politician, is wrong), is the next stage. But not yet. It's a slow transition of nationalisation.
@@twat240 UBI you say? Did you say Andrew Yang? 😏
1:21 - 1:30 I still don't quite get the correlation between more investors buying long-term bonds and the long-term rates going down because of that. Could anyone explain that?
Bonds have a primary market (where the bonds are first sold) and a secondary market (where they can be resold at a greater or lesser price). In the primary market, the issuer of the bond determines the yield (which never changes) and the market buys as much or as little of the bond as it wants. In the secondary market, the effective yield depends on the resale price.
The yield curve here relates to the secondary market. If investors would rather be tied into long term bonds than the price of those will go up, causing the effective yield to come down, and vice versa.
@@footube3 thank you!
Fiat money...high government debt, high corporate debt.
••.lagging indicator consumer strength..when job market begins trend downward watch out the bulls will run for the exit.
When everyone is pessimistic, recession probably won't happen. When everyone is optimistic, recession probably will happen.
Exactly. I have just written a comment above: "I suppose, recession should be very surprising to all. Everyone can't earn on it just watched some videos and read some headlines. Have you heard that market is growing on pessimism and falling on optimism? Since May, especially in September we had huge pessimism about recession... And recently stock market boomed again and appl, msft, etc made its new highs. And now some people start thinking optimistically again... Now some people think that recession will come after us president election. And now they are safe. But it is not so easy, everyone can't earn on recession.Stock market falls unpredictable and very abrupt. Another words, would it fall if all people converting stocks to cash? Hugely and wisely control their money managment? But what if market movers make illusion of optimism and then people start putting their cash in stocks and then market movers selling their stocks on high? I think that is the panic. Caused by optimism but not by pessimism. What do you think? And do you remember that many people claim that 2018 should be the time for crisis? But stock market boomed on pessimism?"
Great explainer. Thank you for creating this content!
Great job clearly communicating this concept!
neglecting education, healthcare & infrastructure in favor of an inflated military budged & warmongering leads to a recession?! who would have guessed that ?!
jcllings He was a used car salesman just like his predecessors and the joker who came after him.
Yield is based on subjective perceptions, do investors know something others do not? If so, how does that happen and what is it?
Investors exhaust much resources to trying to predict the future state of the economy. In doing so, they need to anticipate what other investors are thinking about the economy. To have an inverted yield curve it suggests that, across the entire market, investors suspect the US economy to contract. Contractions can be caused by many complex factors, such as markets trying to reevaluate the true value of goods or shortages in important resources. Some have claimed this event was caused by the upcoming trade tariffs with China. Regardless, it isn’t so much that investors know something the rest of us do not - it’s more that, being financially INVESTED in the market, investors are more sensitive to changes in policy and the economy which in turn influences their investment decisions. News of tarrifs may not alarm you and I, but investors trying to make returns on a competitive margin will be highly sensitive to that kind of a thing. That results in a complex feedback loop that can cause recessions. Hopefully that clears things up.
@@Masterbutler123 bless ur soul
@@Masterbutler123 thank you for the explanation
Excellent reportage.
You can't look at one chart and say: look a recession is coming.
1. Nobody can predict economic growth or decline.
2. There are many many many more indicators (such as debt cycles, productivity per capita etc.).
3. Economies are driven by emotion (including trust in the markets).
This might explain why America have a long history of electing incompetent presidents.
The US have a 22 trillion in debts and those debts are borrowed times.
Nobody gives a fark about the debts because they keep electing an incompetent president to wracked the economy, motivate the other side to elect a smart president who know to fix the problems, such as recovery from a recession, make the economy great. The other side will spread lies to undermine the smart president on his achievements and elect an incompetent president, who likes to brag about the economy by giving corporations tax cuts and dive the economy off a cliff through stupid trade war that benefits no one.
It's scary to see history keep repeating itself, generations after generations.
In 2018, Amazon paid $0 in taxes on record profit of $11 billion. 2018 was the second year in a row that the e-commerce giant was able to avoid paying taxes.
There are 60 big companies who paid $0 in taxes under Trump law.
Amazon is joined on the list by other big companies raking in big profits, including Delta Airlines (DAL), Chevron (CVX), Netflix (NFLX), and General Motors (GM).
“Instead of paying $16.4 billion in taxes at the 21 percent statutory corporate tax rate,” ITEP noted, “these companies enjoyed a net corporate tax rebate of $4.3 billion.”
Seeing those numbers, I get depressed too. I wish this report would cover it.
Maybe they should created a distraction to fire up the base? How about targeting undocumented immigrants? Start by separating family from their kids and then lock up their kids in cages? Thats like killing two birds with one stone. First, it look like the trump administration is doing us all a favor. Secondly, it's the best distraction cover up future problems.
Wait, does this problems has to do with the trump administration colluding with the Russians? Where is the proof then!?
You don't need proof. All you need is a common sense.
Do you still remember about the Russians sowing discord in American, for the 2016 election?
This might explain why China has specific search engine censored. Sowing discord is very dangerous and damaging.
You might be asking, why it's dangerous and damaging? Well, we first need to go back and understand why Trump secretary of the State, Rex Tillerson called the president a moron before he resigned. And then you have the British ambassador, who also called the president a moron before he resigned. Trump top generals resigned one by one, starting with Maddog general Mattias who disagree with the president and then John Kelly resigned, his advice for his replacement: "Get out if you have a chance". So I went and did some research on why and this is what I found.
Business Genius Trump Lost More Money Than Anyone in America Between 1985-1994
The “art of the deal” apparently involves losing hundreds of millions of dollars year after year, according to a new report from the New York Times.
This might explain why he has to hide his tax returns? Why? Because he doesn't want us to know that he's a bad businessman, who ultimately lead 6 of his business going into bankruptcy?
And now the stock market is tumbling and the American farmers are suffering due to the prolong of the trade war.
Putin succeeds at sowing discord. He was able to kill two birds with one stone. First, he gave us an incompetent president and secondly, he watches as America economy getting destroy. Yes, this is true as the recession is looming due to the tax cut for corporations and the trade war with China.
Source
www.axios.com/nbc-tillerson-called-trump-a-moron-almost-resigned-1513305962-a7f5fab2-7c17-44e7-a7e7-05eee5cae723.html
Source
www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/business/economy/economy-recession.html
Source
www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/companies-paying-zero-taxes-trump-law-155944124.html
Source www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-taxes-lost-money-832667/
Source
www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/trump-china-trade-war-bailout-farmers-losses-1455101%3famp=1
There was a temporary market jolt because of an “inversion” (short term Treasuries paying more than long-term Treasuries). Inversions supposedly predict recessions; they came before six out of the last.
But inversions, in of themselves, are just predictions being made by bond buyers. People who make predictions based on inversions simply are saying, “Bond buyers predict a recession, so I will, too.”
AT-192 (Yershova) I like it. Very useful video about the economy of America and a possible recession in the future. I advise everyone to see.
Who’s ready for black friday for investors?
Who's ready for an influx of homelessness, poverty, and death tolls for the average citizen?
Me!
@@LiliumPetal That's why I don't live in the US. I just take advantage of their market :/ in my country we have nearly no homelessness no matter if it's a recession or not. I like the free market, but i'm also fine with paying 40-50% tax for free healthcare, schooling and basically everything. Homelessness is terrible, but i focus on earning as much money as i can so that i can help as many people as i can :/ I can't really stop the recession so why not take advantage of it to later help others?
@@investingtv3262 Where do you live?
If there were no tax considerations it would be a lot easier to prepare for recession by shifting the portfolio. Now I have just gathered some dry powder for the moment I move it to stock market.
Quantitative easing was used to shore up companies by printing money out of thin air with no gold backing. In US and in EU
It's not out of thin air. It's debt.
so let's say they had found a giant vein of gold in a mine...and all the money they have printed was backed by it. The effect would be the same. Gold is an arbitrary unit of account the same as all other money.
Everyone is talking about recessions right now.
The key is 1, be ready for the recession.
2, make sure you have the money to buy assets, stocks, houses, metals, crypto, in the recession. 😉
You have a good portion of America that is barely back on their feet from the last collapse you think most middle class have a million in the bank rn
It took a major financial magazine this long to see a major recession is eminent ?
The inverted yeild curve of 2019 is in anticipation of steadying or deflationary prices. The major cause being the Fed's unwinding of its massive 4 trillion USD balance sheet and the retirement of that liquidity. The minor cause is the uprising of cryptocurrencies and the steady or set supply of currencies in the cryptocurrency framework which vastly differs from the fractional reserve system we've had for the last century.
3:17 "the treasury bought companies' debt to decrease long term interest". Why does that cause this?
Thanks
More money in circulation lowers the interest rate.
Can’t lose money if you don’t have any in the first place
When a large enough group of investors think the economy is going under it tends to be a self fulfiling prophecy.
2:05 Why does your chart only go to 2010?
When the private sector becomes austere, it is the government which should be crazy enough to spend. Most liquidity injected into the economy via monetary policy will only end up being saved, hence not doing much for growth.
The US government should cut spending by $2 trillion and abolish the Federal Reserve. There would be a sharp downturn and downward multiplier, but at least the misallocation of resources (caused by expansionary monetary policy) would be corrected and the private sector would have far more room for growth given greater factor availability.
Look how scared shitless we are about losing our money.. slightest hint of trouble, and everyone is worried. imagine we cared this about protecting the environment in which we live.
seriously! everybody is freaking out over this curve, meanwhile the CO2 ppm atmosphere curve is off the charts! and nobody gives a shit lmao
what you predict usually not come, and when u r not ready,usually it comes.
Im sure the inverted yield this time mean no recession because when it shows,gov become ready to anticipate it so the worst not come.
We're finally being made great again!
I feel the yield curve perhaps this time might not be as reliable as before, simply because the global banks outside USA has negative interests rates. If people are getting negative interest rates, it makes sense fir investors to seek the USA treasury bonds. We are living in unique times and no one knows all I know ISA is the best neighbor in a bad neighborhood.
OK, during the decades spanning these eight recessions, the yield curve has inverted and then reverted back to normal TWICE without a recession occurring in between (once at the end of 1989 and once again at the end of 2007). That means this indicator predicted 10 of the 8 past recessions! Further, for the eight truly predictive yield curve inversion events, the following recession arrived anywhere from one year to two years AFTER the inversion first occurred. So... consider the implications of using this indicator today to guide your future economic plans: It predicts 25% more recessions than actually do occur, and when correct, it predicts that the next recession will happen somewhere between 2021 and 2022. Hmmmm.... how useful is this recession indicator again?
How do you feel today sir? Is the indicator still uselss?
@@MelonSun The pandemic caused the recession.
This line, together with the unemployment rate right now, make it 100% certain that the US is going to have a recession in less than 4 years. The only question is when.
This looks like "if people start acting like a recession is coming, one is"
A recession is all about the behavior of people anyway.
@@ThatOneScienceGuy I can see that, I think Southpark's treatment was apt
the sooner the better , the longer the time it takes the greater the loss ...
Aaaaaand here you go!
Bring it on. I’ll just buy more! Great opportunity to invest.
2020 and here we are
I would like to know more about the recession consequences.
Mohsen M. Amrei To read the history in 1930s
The rich buy up everything especially farms and homes
James Murphy Cheaply.
most businesses are no longer profitable,
then massive bankrupcy,
then surging unemployment ratio,
work class depends on employment will suffer the most.
Higher unemployment, an increase in divorces, an increase in homelessness, social unrest, bankruptcies, increase in domestic violence and drug use, and blaming the poor and immigrants for the situation. It's what Republicans create and run on.
well just putting out the news that long term interest isn't gunna pay out as much as short term will probably change the yield curve. anyways the whole yield curve evidence doesn't have a big enough sample size.
Good, but it could have gone deeper into the problems with the Fed's monetization of US Debt, which is what it does when it starts buying Treasury Bonds on credit.
Great now they just prolong the inevitable via quantitative easing...where is the common folks "quantitative easing" ? Can I quantitative ease my taxes..!?
God bless America
Nah! F^&* them!
You do also realise that speculation and fear of a recession not only worsens it but also brings it a lot earlier. Please, if you don’t want recessions so frequently stop spreading fear of one!
Nah, it's good that they do this as it keeps the bull market going. Having constant minor corrections over the years has kept this thing strong. It clears out the weak hands and lets the party keep rolling.
Wow you're basically saying "stop informing people about basic economic concepts"
PS the person who introduced the predictive abilities said that people should compare the 6 month bond to the 10y bond and that curve hasn't inverted
So should i not buy stock in amazon right now
It just inverted again this week or was it last week?
Nobody is mentioning the bond bubble that has dragged yields to negative territory in Europe and Japan. That has never happened before.
This line ? No, it is a Kondratiev wave. Or any other hypothesis that is used to find a mathematical correlation. The point is, there is no causal correlation.
Agriculture is the answer , leave lavish lifestyle start cultivation...
Chandrashekar Patil, agriculture is so unstable to make a profit out of, especially with the increasing temperature...
@@Andyatl2002 What?
Anyone here in 2020
remember when everyone blamed Obama for every little mistake?
Why isn't anyone blaming Trump for this??
Duke Temz people blamed Bush cmon now and almost everyone is blaming trump they blame everyone nun new
How can it possibly be blamed on him? Reccessions happen all the time
the Tramps an infant , it's not nice to ridicule kids 😁
They’re still blaming Obama. Believe me. Obama Derangement Syndrome is real AF. People were breathing into brown paper bags as soon as they heard his name. Fox News turned the propaganda machine up to 12 and kept it there for 8 long years and brainwashed the living shit out of everyone. Pisses me off that Americans are so stupid and still watch Faux News.
Thomas Headley Judas whatever. lol. But you’re on point.
Questions are answered! Thank You Economist
The Simpsons predicted this 🙈🙈
How would the recession had looked if we didn't have covid?
Who sets the interest on bonds?
fisherman gt it's a fixed payment amount. A bond is a promise to pay a fixed amount every year for xxx years. For example, a US bond sells a bond paying 500 every year for a year. Let's say a lot of people are willing to buy it, it goes to the highest 'bidder', and the highest anyone's willing to pay for it is 25k. It's an interest rate of 2%.
When the stock market is gloomy, there's no safe investments, or even saving is a bad idea, then bonds become more attractive. This is because it's backed by the fucking government, it's the least likely, to ever go bankrupt. So, demand rises. A rise in demand means people are willing to pay more and so the price goes to 50k. This means that (as the yearly payment is still only 500), the interest rate is now only 1%. It can even be negative if there's incredible lack of confidence or depreciation, if the US anticipates this of course and sets the initial rate.
Higher demand = higher price = lower interest rate. No one sets it.
@@twat240 Thanks for clarifying that for me, much appreciated
fisherman gt no worries. It's complicated ik haha.
@@twat240 Well, no one expects the government to go bust, but it still might. The debt is 22 trillion dollars and counting (106 percent of GDP), the deficit is more than 300 billions this year, more than double last years deficit.
The issuer sets the interest rate. Interest rates might fluctuate because the issuer may need more or less money, the length of the bond might change, speculation that the issuer is financially unstable might arise, and other factors that influence the status quo. In most bonds there is a clause that allows lenders to sell their bond to others, giving rise to a secondary market.
ThAnKs ObaMa!
Well your right
4:15 min of nothing.
We shouldn't have a recession. We didn't have a bubble burst like the tech bubble or housing bubble, we didn't have a traumatic event like 9/11 slow spending, and we aren't at war with any new countries so we don't have anything to trigger a recession imo.
Well, the American trade conflict with China, tariffs slowing trade. And also stocks on the aggregate may just be overvalued.
Corrupt Cop God... Cut the epithet. So uncalled-for!
@@davidarnold2456 Don't forget Brexit.
Does it mean it's better off to sell US dollars that we have before the recession?
Better be. Since rate to exchange dollar into renminbi is very high now. You better be.
You think anyone at The Economist might want Trump out of office...other than everyone.
Fox News be like: FAKE NEWS ITS THE MEDIA LEFTISTS
Literally Everyone Else: well crap.
Bill Maher be like: Recession, yes please! Oust the orange man.
Literally Everyone Else: well crap.
Alas, it's so easy for the government the reverse the so-called inverted yield curve, JUST issue more long term bonds, forcing down the price of long term bonds resulting in higher yields for long term bonds.... BIG JOKE!
Well.... economics is a cycle/cyclical
I think u mean that recessions are cyclical.
jacqueline schael And expansions
YAWWWWWWWWN. You have headlines like this every week for the last 11 years & still no recession
this is true.
Will recessions ever be a thing of the past?
No
Let's welcome USA and create a group with countries in recession. Brazil here.
Marcio Barbosa please FO to Brazil where the police shoots you first. No question asked. What shit are you talking "create a group?" Does Brazil has 9000 Metric tons gold? Brazil is the biggest corrupt county in the world. Exporting sand for sugar in the 90's
The old school way is to be cash-rich, as I am now. A small percentage of my wealth is in the market and I am not changing it, not worth the risk.
Cash isn't king. It's good to have cash when opportunities arise...but just holding cash for the sake of it is equivalent to owning a legal pad... only useful when you use it.
I think if a lot of people lived below their means this wouldn’t affect them as much as a matter a fact help you if you have good savings. This is a good time to go shopping everything is on sale! 🤑
The trade wars are one thing. But what about brexit and the movement to disintegrate the European Union.
Since when was there a movement to disintegrate the EU?
Someone far right populism In many countries. This is a euro-sceptic movement.
@@Someone-cr8cj bruh...have you been to England hahaha. It's a move to leave our.... *Cough*.."evil conspiring dictators'".
Democracy is overrated. We end up fucking shooting ourselves, we don't fucking deserve it. Let's bring the monarchy back.
EVERYONE PANIC!!!
@jcllings Not shot nearly as much as the joker pantomime con artist who lied twelve thousand times publicly since 2017.
Panic is exactly what they want.
@Joy Stinson Trump is already buying the real estate in California nextdoor to the ones they already got running. Going to be HUGE.
In Sri Lanka we don't feel the recession..! It's always the same..
Francis Godinho No they killed Catholics because they were radicalised pieces of shit
Mises explained this years ago.
Von Mises is horrid. Listen to Richard Wolff.
Make America Great Again Again and Again
You have to start the minimum wage to $25 dollars an hour to counterpart this downturn of the economy
Since when does capitalist ceo and Republican care about common man wage and benefit? Let the poor suffer. If anything job will move back from China if people are willing to work for competetjvie wage with the Chinese less than $1 an hr
The one percent know this is coning. That's why they got their tax break to have a bit of cushion when it happens.
What are you even talking about? Do you even know how tax code works? Even with tax breaks the “one percent” has to pay SOOO much more than everyone else. In fact they STILL pay for basically the whole government to run. Their “cushion” is all the money they have haha.
@@tommytmt
I know that the top wealthiest 500+ American's don't pay nearly what the wealthy did 50 years ago.
And a lot of administrations were Republican with very high tax rates double plus today's standards. That's how our countries infrastructure was built and how city college's were so cheap and so many other great things. You are correct they do fund America. But If we are honest about the abuse of government funds and policy creation they favor the wealthy a bit too much.
So much so that some major companies don't pay any taxes. Some hide it overseas to avoid paying at all. While a constant reduction for anything for the people. Whatever it is.
You're OK with that and that's perfectly fine. I am not.
This is one reason our countries infrastructure is falling apart. Going to need a lot of taxes for that. Something else Trump has failed on.
M J - There is not a set tax rate for everyone in every income bracket. The rich pay in a far higher tax bracket.
@@tommytmt I'm not disagreeing with that.
My point is that the wealthy paid far more in taxes historically then they do now. In the range of 80% during Republican administration(S) no less.
Because of that extra investment, there was a significant bump in people getting college degrees for instance. Because the States were getting grants from the federal government. I think the largest in history*. (I would need to check that.*)
Now policy is being dictated and created by the very industries our government is charged with overseeing?
Not OK.
I trust this lady...Her eyes....I feel like she can see it the future - tell what you see?
haha, this is hilarious! :)
We’ve been in a recession. Unemployment rate is a lie. Minimum wage is lower now than 1960’s (adjust for inflation) no one can afford shit.