I’m both happy and sad at knowing it won’t flee as a shiny seeing as I never used my master ball at the risk of losing good pokemon including when I found a hundo groudon 😫
@@curseofsasuke yeah technically speaking the master ball is only limited by the amount of events/researches available and it seem they going toward will probably release two a year I already have 3 and I believe they’re releasing a fourth
Love the deep dive into the exact numbers it is of catching the birds The one question that I have is, as we know, a critical catch is guaranteed if you hit the smallest excellent circle, so could a nanab berry be used and then hit the smallest excellent resulting in a guaranteed catch assuming it’s not shiny? (I know criticals were mentioned but is it possible)
No, unfortunately not. Critical catches don't occur on Galarian birds or other Legendaries due to hitting the smallest sized Excellent circle, only due to random chance. See my video from a few months ago about "Perfect Throws": ruclips.net/video/w_ad7lPBkQw/видео.html
Finding a shiny bird is gonna be rare enough so I think people who are mad that they can't flee need a second or hobby or stop being so elitist. The master balls you stock up could be used on like a hundo bird or raid if you're on the last ball
This is the type of content I live for, excellent stuff!! I've often thought through the math while walking my dog using a daily incense and it's nice seeing all the details and thoughtfulness that have gone into your calcs!
Wow this was very interesting to watch even tho I barely understood any of it 😅 every time I would encounter a galarian bird I was always just say "ok 0.3 chance" but now I know it's actually more! Thank you for that.
Caught 2 Articuno and 2 Moltres over the years in Ultra balls, traded them all away as Master balls started coming out, one for a Zapdos, just to fill the dex. I like the hunt, but holding them seemed pointless with the shiny essentially guaranteed at some point.
If with all bonus’s we say that there is a 5% chance of catching a galarian bird, and then say that the shiny is 1/20 then it should be about equal (I’m gonna be the actual math for things in a comment to this comment if it doesn’t get covered in the video)
Update after watching the video: nicely done you covered nearly everything I was hoping would get covered, the only thing I’m going to add is that there might be data somewhere or another about the global likelyhood of each weather type so we could calculate the odds of them being weather boosted. (Edit: I can’t find the stats anywhere so I’m going to just guesstimate in the next comment)
Like I mentioned I can’t find the actual info anywhere so based off of vibes let’s say that the general breakdown is 30% sunny, 20% rainy, 20% partly cloudy, 15% cloudy, 10% windy, 3% foggy, and 2% snowy. There is a 1/3 chance that the cloudy and foggy will be weather boosted (cloudy boosts fighting so that covers zapdos, and foggy boosts dark so that covers moltres). Windy is guaranteed to be weather boosted (Articuno is psychic and all 3 of them are also flying types). This means there’s a 16% shot of them being weather boosted if my guesstimated weather %s are accurate.
Great comments and correct intuition! I had the same thought about weighting by weather boost but same as you couldn't find data on that, and the video was complicated enough as it was. :p
Taking the assumed 16% weather boosted odds we come up with the equation: (non weather boosted odds * (1-weather boost chance))+(weather boosted odds* weather boost chance) With no throw bonus the equation would come out to: (5.61*0.84)+(4.36*0.16)=5.41% With a perfect excellent throw the equation would be: (9.41*0.84)+(7.22*0.16)=9.0596 So it would mean the combined odds should roughly be: 5.41%-9.06% (Feel free to double check my math it’s been a little while since I’ve done stats lol)
@@TheExcellentPokedexunderstandable, I’m sure it’s hard determining how many details to add to make it interesting but how many to leave out to avoid making it too boring, great work as usual though
Is there any data for autocatchers? Do they still have the 50/50 flee catch rate even for the no run scenarios? This might affect the overall results too
I'm not that familiar with exact autocatcher mechanics, but I suspect you should almost always have it off when using daily incense so you can get the best chances of a catch when you see a Galarian bird.
Ima just use them as practice for Galarian bird excellent throws cuz I mean it works lol not like it’s gonna flee but do you think the Galarian birds would be boosted spawns?
It's Articuno and Moltres that I just can't get right and can't practice because they pretty much run away instantly, dammit😂 At least zapdos is on the ground, so it's easier.
Galarian birds move a lot, like a crazy amount and I am usually moving while catching them, I almost never hit excellent throws, I sometimes dont even get nice throws. Seems like shiny would be more common for me
Okay, Good Will Hunting, I'm just going to trust you on this! Looking forward to at least seeing a shiny eventually! For fun, though, do we know the chances of spawn, and the chance of getting each of the 3 different ones? Can we figure out a probability of seeing and/or catching all three in a certain number of days/months/years, if we use the Daily Adventure Incense every day, without modifying it with anything like the Roar of Time adventure effect? Feel free to tell me to go away, lol! Thanks for the fun video!
In theory, if the shiny is guaranteed i use the master ball for the regular ones at least until i have 1 of each. Or if i see a shiny but cannot really stay and catch due to time i might use a master just in case
This is interesting. Reminds me I wanted to simulate how much faster it would be to go for an excellent throw over the others to see how often on average it results in a catch on first throw and how it varies between different species and levels but no time for a project like that. Mostly I was curious that if you're trying to grind stardust, for some pokemon would it worth the effort for the excellent, ignoring that fact that excellent throws are far better for xp even if you are proficient at it.
Thanks for the comment because I wasn't sure about this, but it turns out it's actually officially confirmed that the medal bonuses average, not stack: pokemongolive.com/en/post/elemental/ The article says: "If a Pokémon has multiple types, your bonus will be the average of your bonuses for each type."
Yes, use of a Master ball would obviously bypass this whole discussion. And since the main thing that Master balls are good for is catching Galarian birds, it is actually quite relevant. I probably should have mentioned it in the video but I didn't think about it. :)
I'd like to share my experience: I got multiple throws more frequently (even three times) with Galarian Zapdos, much more than with the other two. This may be due to the fact that achieving an excellent throw with Zapdos is easier than with the other two. In fact, I never managed to throw an excellent one on Moltres or Articuno. I'm wondering if an excellent throw decreases the flee rate, giving us a higher chance on the next throw? Considering the difficulty of making an excellent throw on Moltres and Articuno, I'm also thinking about the higher possibility of an excellent throw with the "buddy catch assist." During a wild encounter with enough balls, throwing a ball at an attacking legendary only costs one ball but offers a chance for a buddy catch assist, as well as a potential excellent throw. This strategy might overall increase the catch rate of a wild Galarian Moltres or Articuno. It’s said that weather boosts might increase the encounter rate for Galarian birds. If that’s true, weather boosts may affect both the encounter chance and the catch rate, but in opposite ways. I’m not sure if this affects the overall strategy, raising the question: "Do I have a higher chance of encountering+catching a Galarian bird with or without weather-boosted timing?"
I'm not sure that buddy assist actually improves your chances of an excellent throw in a scenario where the pokemon is very likely to flee if hit. They so often get no catch bonus, it may be better to not have the catch assist at all. This way, if the bird hits the ball away you get a new clean shot at an excellent throw, instead of it fleeing. It would be interesting to see the math on this.
moltres is pretty good for great and ultra, 55 in great and 24 in ultra. Its also 17 in master but that's a bit harder to justify since you'll want a near hundo one
You can definitely crit catch, but I don't think the guaranteed crit catch is a thing for them. I could be wrong, as I've seen a lot of conflicting info on it.
@ArtistLunatalia is correct. Random crit catches work on these birds, but "perfect throws" on the smallest possible circle do NOT cause crit catches on Galarian birds and many other hard-to-catch Pokemon like Legendaries.
Encounter a Galarian Zapdos the other day, throw 10 Ultra Ball, Give it a Razz Berry and Excellent throw on the 11th try.... well you guess it, straight Out of the Ball and Fled
The topic of the bonus section reveals incredibly useful information, while the question of the main topic has not even formed in my mind! What a wonderful channel this is! Thank you very much for your insights, as always! 🙇♂️
Nonshiny will still be more common because it has been around longer. Not to mention you vastly underestimate how willing new players are to expend their masterball. We are now at the 4th masterball and for most players, they don't have any use for it other than the galarian birds. There's no need to use masterball on shiny since they don't flee Also, it's against ToS but some people could even make new accounts just to get masterballs and trade them away. So yes I know this isnt the answer youre looking for but in the real world there will be bound to be more nonshiny galarian birds in circulation than shiny.
@@chan4est Once you've gained platinum medals for their typing, and assuming Ultra Balls + Golden Razz, you're really not likely to need your Master Ball for raid legendaries. The like 10-20 chances is enough for the vast majority of them. Galarian Birds are such a pain with their flee rate that I tend to use my Master Balls for them regardless.
That is compensated for by the much lower (probably 1/20) chance of it being shiny. You're likely to catch on one of the 19 non-shiny attempts, assuming use of all possible bonuses, and it works out as shown in the video that you will end up with slightly more non-Shiny in the long run.
@@Coldfeverx3 He give you the benefit of the doubt, that you probably did not watch the video fully before you commented. Unfortunately you are not smart enough to read into it. I won´t assume anything, i know from your second comment, that you are just dumb.
I’m both happy and sad at knowing it won’t flee as a shiny seeing as I never used my master ball at the risk of losing good pokemon including when I found a hundo groudon 😫
Can we only have 1 master ball at a time?
@@curseofsasukeno, you can have multiple, it’s just rare
@@curseofsasuke yeah technically speaking the master ball is only limited by the amount of events/researches available and it seem they going toward will probably release two a year I already have 3 and I believe they’re releasing a fourth
Love the deep dive into the exact numbers it is of catching the birds
The one question that I have is, as we know, a critical catch is guaranteed if you hit the smallest excellent circle, so could a nanab berry be used and then hit the smallest excellent resulting in a guaranteed catch assuming it’s not shiny?
(I know criticals were mentioned but is it possible)
No, unfortunately not. Critical catches don't occur on Galarian birds or other Legendaries due to hitting the smallest sized Excellent circle, only due to random chance.
See my video from a few months ago about "Perfect Throws": ruclips.net/video/w_ad7lPBkQw/видео.html
@@TheExcellentPokedexDang I wish it did but thanks for the clarification though
I believe shiny odds should be 1/64 but boosted during events to make it decently rare
@@RusselHobbins Not saying you're wrong but what makes you think that? Like sources or precedent.
that trick doesn’t work with legendary mons
Finding a shiny bird is gonna be rare enough so I think people who are mad that they can't flee need a second or hobby or stop being so elitist. The master balls you stock up could be used on like a hundo bird or raid if you're on the last ball
it’s just not consistent with what they have done with the past for shiny roaming legendaries
@@ceezymuccheez good and doesn't matter
@@axel8912 also i was wrong lol
Forced Critical catches do not work on galarian birds though not sure if random ones still do
Random ones work.
I caught galarian zapdos with a critical catch😁
They said “very lucky” in the blog, it’s probably higher then 1/20 odds
🤷 I'm invested in it being 1/20 or this video doesn't work, lol.
My main concern will be having enough ultra balls...
Just stockpile them until and during the event. Dont use them
Agreed. Gotta keep like 100+ stockpiled at any given in case you see one of these shinies.
Excellent work
I only got a gal Zapdos on the second throw (it broke out and didn't flee) with a critical catch
This is the type of content I live for, excellent stuff!! I've often thought through the math while walking my dog using a daily incense and it's nice seeing all the details and thoughtfulness that have gone into your calcs!
I'm glad that the same questions I have resonate with others!
Kind of questioned if anyone would care about this video but decided to YOLO it.
Boy I love math
Heck yeah
@@TheExcellentPokedexdo you add 1.4 for both type if dual typing?
No, the two type medal bonuses get averaged. So if you have Platinum for both you still only get 1.4x.@@chromekronic3941
They all suck and no matter what the code says mine will run xD Never got a second ball on any of them.
Wow this was very interesting to watch even tho I barely understood any of it 😅 every time I would encounter a galarian bird I was always just say "ok 0.3 chance" but now I know it's actually more! Thank you for that.
Ive had 3 birds on one incense but only got to encounter one because W lag
I only saw my first bird this week 😂
Caught 2 Articuno and 2 Moltres over the years in Ultra balls, traded them all away as Master balls started coming out, one for a Zapdos, just to fill the dex. I like the hunt, but holding them seemed pointless with the shiny essentially guaranteed at some point.
If with all bonus’s we say that there is a 5% chance of catching a galarian bird, and then say that the shiny is 1/20 then it should be about equal (I’m gonna be the actual math for things in a comment to this comment if it doesn’t get covered in the video)
Update after watching the video: nicely done you covered nearly everything I was hoping would get covered, the only thing I’m going to add is that there might be data somewhere or another about the global likelyhood of each weather type so we could calculate the odds of them being weather boosted.
(Edit: I can’t find the stats anywhere so I’m going to just guesstimate in the next comment)
Like I mentioned I can’t find the actual info anywhere so based off of vibes let’s say that the general breakdown is 30% sunny, 20% rainy, 20% partly cloudy, 15% cloudy, 10% windy, 3% foggy, and 2% snowy. There is a 1/3 chance that the cloudy and foggy will be weather boosted (cloudy boosts fighting so that covers zapdos, and foggy boosts dark so that covers moltres). Windy is guaranteed to be weather boosted (Articuno is psychic and all 3 of them are also flying types). This means there’s a 16% shot of them being weather boosted if my guesstimated weather %s are accurate.
Great comments and correct intuition!
I had the same thought about weighting by weather boost but same as you couldn't find data on that, and the video was complicated enough as it was. :p
Taking the assumed 16% weather boosted odds we come up with the equation: (non weather boosted odds * (1-weather boost chance))+(weather boosted odds* weather boost chance)
With no throw bonus the equation would come out to: (5.61*0.84)+(4.36*0.16)=5.41%
With a perfect excellent throw the equation would be:
(9.41*0.84)+(7.22*0.16)=9.0596
So it would mean the combined odds should roughly be: 5.41%-9.06%
(Feel free to double check my math it’s been a little while since I’ve done stats lol)
@@TheExcellentPokedexunderstandable, I’m sure it’s hard determining how many details to add to make it interesting but how many to leave out to avoid making it too boring, great work as usual though
Is there any data for autocatchers? Do they still have the 50/50 flee catch rate even for the no run scenarios? This might affect the overall results too
A friend of mine had a shiny legendary run from him when the auto catcher failed.
I'm not that familiar with exact autocatcher mechanics, but I suspect you should almost always have it off when using daily incense so you can get the best chances of a catch when you see a Galarian bird.
@@OzoneENwhat shiny legendary 😂
50/50 you either catch or you don’t
Based
I hope they just use the 5% shiny rate and not something absurdly low…
Always have 50 poke all and 30 berries in you backpack minimum.
Holy, he’s cooking 😂 and i love it…after 1000 ultra and holden i’d be piss af
4:40 I guess that would explain how I managed to find and catch 2 Galarian birds back to back WITH MISSING the excellent throws both times
5,4% catchrate...
I have been really unlucky with galarian birds :')
And for some reason they don't spawn :(
Thought I was gonna watch something that didn't involve my stats course lol
Very interesting math. Thanks for compiling this all, it's interesting too see it broken down in such detail
Ima just use them as practice for Galarian bird excellent throws cuz I mean it works lol not like it’s gonna flee but do you think the Galarian birds would be boosted spawns?
Genius! 😂
@@TheExcellentPokedexthanks 🤣
It's Articuno and Moltres that I just can't get right and can't practice because they pretty much run away instantly, dammit😂
At least zapdos is on the ground, so it's easier.
@@joaogabrielamoras696 nah Fr I can’t get Zapdos lol we are complete opposites
Galarian birds move a lot, like a crazy amount and I am usually moving while catching them, I almost never hit excellent throws, I sometimes dont even get nice throws. Seems like shiny would be more common for me
Circle lock trick should help
My pokemon plus + caught galarian articuno with pokeball like 3 weeks ago, it has 49cp, i didnt know it can actually happen 😅
Okay, Good Will Hunting, I'm just going to trust you on this! Looking forward to at least seeing a shiny eventually! For fun, though, do we know the chances of spawn, and the chance of getting each of the 3 different ones? Can we figure out a probability of seeing and/or catching all three in a certain number of days/months/years, if we use the Daily Adventure Incense every day, without modifying it with anything like the Roar of Time adventure effect? Feel free to tell me to go away, lol! Thanks for the fun video!
Ain't nobody got time for math..
Just use a Master Ball !!! 🤣
i didn't understand about 10 minutes of the maths, but I'm glad you did it.
Ngl ima try to catch shiny G-Moltres in a normal pokeball and Shiny G-Articuno in a greatball for color matching
In theory, if the shiny is guaranteed i use the master ball for the regular ones at least until i have 1 of each. Or if i see a shiny but cannot really stay and catch due to time i might use a master just in case
Everyone did xD, thanks for the calcs
I dont trust Niantic im gonna still throw a master ball if I see one of those shines
This is interesting. Reminds me I wanted to simulate how much faster it would be to go for an excellent throw over the others to see how often on average it results in a catch on first throw and how it varies between different species and levels but no time for a project like that. Mostly I was curious that if you're trying to grind stardust, for some pokemon would it worth the effort for the excellent, ignoring that fact that excellent throws are far better for xp even if you are proficient at it.
I honestly have a lucky hundo of a galarian zapdos!
How do we know the shinies will be guaranteed catches?
Thank you for putting in so much work for this video and this community! Tis appreciated.
Great video! Thanks for all the effort you put into it.
I JUST LOST A GALARIAN ZAPDOS WHY IS THIS HERE
Very well done video, thanks!
i thought the medal bonuses stacked, since the g birds are dual type, youd times it by two lots of 1.4x
Thanks for the comment because I wasn't sure about this, but it turns out it's actually officially confirmed that the medal bonuses average, not stack: pokemongolive.com/en/post/elemental/
The article says: "If a Pokémon has multiple types, your bonus will be the average of your bonuses for each type."
What about the possibility of someone just throwing master balls at galarian birds? Does your calculus consider that?
Yes, use of a Master ball would obviously bypass this whole discussion. And since the main thing that Master balls are good for is catching Galarian birds, it is actually quite relevant.
I probably should have mentioned it in the video but I didn't think about it. :)
Great video! Love these breakdowns!
I'd like to share my experience:
I got multiple throws more frequently (even three times) with Galarian Zapdos, much more than with the other two. This may be due to the fact that achieving an excellent throw with Zapdos is easier than with the other two. In fact, I never managed to throw an excellent one on Moltres or Articuno. I'm wondering if an excellent throw decreases the flee rate, giving us a higher chance on the next throw?
Considering the difficulty of making an excellent throw on Moltres and Articuno, I'm also thinking about the higher possibility of an excellent throw with the "buddy catch assist." During a wild encounter with enough balls, throwing a ball at an attacking legendary only costs one ball but offers a chance for a buddy catch assist, as well as a potential excellent throw. This strategy might overall increase the catch rate of a wild Galarian Moltres or Articuno.
It’s said that weather boosts might increase the encounter rate for Galarian birds. If that’s true, weather boosts may affect both the encounter chance and the catch rate, but in opposite ways. I’m not sure if this affects the overall strategy, raising the question: "Do I have a higher chance of encountering+catching a Galarian bird with or without weather-boosted timing?"
I'm not sure that buddy assist actually improves your chances of an excellent throw in a scenario where the pokemon is very likely to flee if hit. They so often get no catch bonus, it may be better to not have the catch assist at all. This way, if the bird hits the ball away you get a new clean shot at an excellent throw, instead of it fleeing. It would be interesting to see the math on this.
Should have enabled them to flee. They are not really meta for anything but would be cool to have a few rares above the regular birds to hunt.
moltres is pretty good for great and ultra, 55 in great and 24 in ultra. Its also 17 in master but that's a bit harder to justify since you'll want a near hundo one
note that crit catches also work on galarian birds, ive done it on my second zapdos
You can definitely crit catch, but I don't think the guaranteed crit catch is a thing for them. I could be wrong, as I've seen a lot of conflicting info on it.
@ArtistLunatalia is correct. Random crit catches work on these birds, but "perfect throws" on the smallest possible circle do NOT cause crit catches on Galarian birds and many other hard-to-catch Pokemon like Legendaries.
Encounter a Galarian Zapdos the other day, throw 10 Ultra Ball, Give it a Razz Berry and Excellent throw on the 11th try.... well you guess it, straight Out of the Ball and Fled
Really interesting video!! Thanks for putting this together!
Briliant video, thanks for the content!
The topic of the bonus section reveals incredibly useful information, while the question of the main topic has not even formed in my mind! What a wonderful channel this is! Thank you very much for your insights, as always! 🙇♂️
I was discussing this the other day! Cool that you had the same question. Thanks for clarifying :)
I don’t have all the garlarían birds so shiny might be good if they don’t run
Super accurate, thanks bro
Thanks for this amazing video!
I've been thinking about this!
Great video, thanks
Nonshiny will still be more common because it has been around longer. Not to mention you vastly underestimate how willing new players are to expend their masterball. We are now at the 4th masterball and for most players, they don't have any use for it other than the galarian birds. There's no need to use masterball on shiny since they don't flee
Also, it's against ToS but some people could even make new accounts just to get masterballs and trade them away. So yes I know this isnt the answer youre looking for but in the real world there will be bound to be more nonshiny galarian birds in circulation than shiny.
I have the ragular!!!!!
Yesn't
Don't people just catch the birds with masterballs?
I forgot about that. Probably true.
Masterball should only be used for 100 IV meta relevant legendaries from raids when you're on the last ball.
@@chan4est Once you've gained platinum medals for their typing, and assuming Ultra Balls + Golden Razz, you're really not likely to need your Master Ball for raid legendaries. The like 10-20 chances is enough for the vast majority of them. Galarian Birds are such a pain with their flee rate that I tend to use my Master Balls for them regardless.
I wouldn't wish a shiny galarian bird on my worst enemy. They are so ugly!!!
The only ugly one is moltres
wdym bro articuno looks majestic
making every shiny regional variant the colors of the original form was an AWFUL idea, very few of them look anywhere close to decent
I actually love their shinies, but you're welcome to their opinion.
*Regular is more rare because they can run unlike the Shiny version.*
That is compensated for by the much lower (probably 1/20) chance of it being shiny. You're likely to catch on one of the 19 non-shiny attempts, assuming use of all possible bonuses, and it works out as shown in the video that you will end up with slightly more non-Shiny in the long run.
bro did not watch the video at all
@@oliverv2848 video was up for along time now to be watched fully. You’re just assuming 😅
@@Coldfeverx3 He give you the benefit of the doubt, that you probably did not watch the video fully before you commented. Unfortunately you are not smart enough to read into it. I won´t assume anything, i know from your second comment, that you are just dumb.