Secular Trend Says Stocks Could Rise Until 2035
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- Опубликовано: 15 июн 2023
- The incremental improvement in the stock market since the S&P 500's October 2022 low aligns with the secular trend thesis. What can we learn from long-term S&P 500 trends (1933-2023) in terms of the magnitude and duration of possible upside in the stock market?
Wall Street pitched so-called quality stocks with high profitability and low debt, as a kind of insurance against whatever the economy might throw at you. Quality stocks have underperformed the S&P500 this year, My $400k portfolio is down by approximately 20 %, any recommendations to scale up my ROI before retirement will be highly appreciated.
It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
@@kaylawood9053 The uncertainties accompanying this present market is more reasons I have my daily investment decisions guided by a portfolio-coach seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time, both employing profit-oriented strategy and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downtrends, coupled with the exclusive analysis, it's quite impossible not to outperform. Netted over $550k in return on investment, since using a coach for about 2years.
@@legacymedia8468 I could really use the expertise of this advisors , my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you?
@@cloudyblaze7916 The advisor I use is Heather Lee Larioni, she's verifiable , so you could just search her.
@@legacymedia8468 I just looked up Heather Lee Larioni online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals and scheduled a call
Inflation hits people a lot harder than a crashing stock or housing market as it directly affects people's cost of living that people immediately feel the impact of. It's not surprising negative market sentiment is so high now. We really need help to survive in this Economy. The ETF/Equity market keeps swinging.
The market's direction can swiftly change, with indexes frequently transitioning from a bear market to a bull market precisely when the news is most negative and investor sentiment reaches its lowest point.
@@trazzpalmer3199 I agree, and for that reason I prefer to have a financial consultant make my day-to-day investment decisions. Given that their entire skill set is based on going long and short at the same time as well as employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's nearly impossible to not out-perform. I've been using a financial consultant for over two years and I've already seen positive.
@@graceocean8323 I've been looking at comparable opportunities in the current market because I know a lot of people who made fortunes from the Dotcom crash and the 2008 crash. Could this consultant who helps you be of any assistance?
SALVATORE FORTUNATO SOFIA is the name of my financial consultant. I learned about her from a Kiyosaki Radio interview, from which I later got in touch with her. She has since offered me entry and exit points for the stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) I'm interested in. You are welcome to perform a quick online search using her name. I essentially follow her market judgments without feeling guilty about it.
The erosion of my financial reserves due to inflation adds to my concerns. At this point, I require precise market trajectory information, but I find myself unsure about the appropriate course of action.
An obvious way to lnvest for a recession is to buy shares in businesses that are likely to experience steady demand even in a downturn. Typically, those are consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare companies, but off course such decisions cannot be made by an average Joe, a financial advisr is important in making this decisions
@@LeonardoScott Such considerations can certainly have a role when I think about whether I ought to buy into a share. But I never purchase purely on that basis, i always have to seek the adv!ce of my financial-planner who has helped me gain $985k in a well-diversified portfoIio that has experienced exponential growth
@@KangMinsu122 Viviana Marisa Coelho a registered Investment advisr. Quite renowned, search her name to get in touch
Very useful long take and historical charting. Really enjoyed the Chance Trend Meter look. Essential weekly lessons. Thanks Chris and Kathy
Chris, this is one of my favorite videos to date! Thank you my friend for all the effort to put these videos together! Let's all make some money!
Out of the tunnel, heading into an open road. With the stock market, as in life, perspective is everything. Thank you Chris and Kathy for this secular update! Best Regards.
Thanks Chris, great presentation of facts as always, have a good weekend.
much appreciated as always great information for contemplation.
Thankyou for the presentation. Great information as always
Thank you for another great analysis
Awesome Analyses. You are the BEST!
Excellent, and yes I remember your extrapolation in 2019 looking at the next peak to be around 2035. Realistic! 👍
Prof trader here - +10K transactions/year over couple of decades now. Never looked at a chart like ... ever to place a trade, I did not know it was a thing in retail circles until recently. I find this channel engaging and useful, part of my weekly trading routine for couple of years now, perspective on what market participants are looking at and how they trade. Best wishes trading and investing!
Thank you so much for your valuable knowledge 🙏😊
I’ve been talking about this secular trend a lot lately. We’re headed so much higher in 10-12 years. Especially Nasdaq
I love your long historical views of the markets. Gives me confidence in my investments. Currently 100% in TSLA 😁
5400 shares of Tesla myself! Elon will make us all very rich!
9600 shares of PLTR as well!
Great analysis as always thanks
Great analysis. I would love to see this analysis on the NASDAQ stock exchange.
3:40 I use CTM, thanks for including it!
You are the most credible analyst on the web, gl with the new ventures!
Absolutely love watching your long term analysis
Agreed
best stuff i herd all week that was fantastic
I am telling you folks this is one of the most hated bull market rallies in Wall Street history. Where are all the false prophets who keep prophesying about the doomsday crash?. Let's keep crushing those bears! As always, thanks for all your great work Chris! :)
Mega doomers? Surely you meant the top 5:
- Maverick of Wall Street
- Ron "Wrong" Walker
- Money Time Machine
- Jim Cramer
- Ciovacco Capital
@Abe "...who keep prophesying [prophesizing] about..."
@@user-xq2fz5tz9t Cramer & Ciovacco are not "doomers." Walker is the worst with his 13-count & 9-count reversal signal BS.
PE = 26
10:00 Isn't it actually, rather than "the severity of the problems", but the psychology of the reaction to the severity of the problems?
The mindset of those with the ability to influence the markets, and at what pace compared to 50 years ago. 75 or 100 years ago.
One thing i heard at the mini-bank-crisis a couple months ago was how quickly with device access, how immediately the reaction was compared to when people had to call their brokers. Something that took days and weeks to happen did happen in an hour earlier this year.
That has given me something to also overlay onto any historical references to current trends, current analysis.
I don't quite know what it means, but maybe you could speak to that.
I enjoy these thoughtful intelligent offerings. Appreciate you giving them.
The FED have noted that speed.
Thank you!
thank u so so much
Best stock market analysis I've ever seen.
😂
Agreed
My estimation based on incoming and current demographics in confluence with the fourth industrial revolution is year 2039 minimum up to 2045.
Recession already occured on 1/1/22 thru Halloween 2022.
SPX and NDX are in a present technical breakout ....... SPX 4600 by August, NDX 14600.
2023 highs SPX 4800
NDX 15750
Excellent analysis
One very large consideration your chart - which begins in 1933 - does not reflect is the 90% drop in the stock market in 1929. Is there no risk our very near future might experience a similar outcome?
Tom lee also said 2035 for the end of secular bull market in a video. The reason was tied to spending power of 30s end then.. something like that.
looking at the charts you presented! I am 100% certain it’s a traders market! to continue a bearish down trend we need to break and hold below 2900!! It’s a traders reality! the market is making higher highs and higher lows! lol
I don't understand how everyone is so bullish when the yield curve is still super inverted.
You state consumption appears strong but how can you say corporate earnings haven't been hit when we have had two consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth for the S&P, which is a technical earnings recession.
Great Facts!
Technical analysis not withstanding, I don't think we can compare *relatively* "hard money" environments, with good strong fundamental growth in economies, from 1930s to the 1970s, with an easy money, fiat currency, endless money printing environment that started in the 1970s when Nixon went off the gold standard, and has gotten especially egregious since 2008. Imo the bear market periods will only start to increase. I'm referring to the chart at 18:42.
SNP 500 in corrective mode now As long as Short Term Support at 4260, is not violated with a Daily Close, next upward test of minimum 4500 in the cards before the next correction takes place.
You are saying the same thing my Elliot Wave guy is saying.
What do you mean by secular trends
Just imagine what the inflation will be if s&p double or triple 😄
That’s the direction we’re headed, prepare for it.
Inverted yield curve says big recession soon
My advice to anyone feeling the heat in this current market. Just trade long term more than ever. If you can then get a professional to trade for you, think that way your assets are more secure
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How does this trading stuff work? I'm really interested but I just don't know how it go about it. I heard people really make it huge trading
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deep into the red box, deep into the red box, deep into the red box, deep into the red box, deep into the red box, deep into the red box, deep into the red box,
You can't see past the next 6 months.. Come on really
Bonds yield 4%. Stocks yield 1%. So... why bonds down and stocks up?
Stupid people.
Interesting. But of course the 27 year trend is entirely random. It just looks like a pattern. There is no internal reason that any secular bull market should last 27 years, rather than 13 years, merely half that prior trend. We have had our 13 years. Of much more interest to me is the fact that we are in our 18th month of this correction. That is very, very long, for any secular bull to pause. So unless it suddenly breaks the years old high, I see it as topping.
The PE of the S&P is way too high with treasuries paying 5%. It’s completely illogical.
The title implies he is predicting nothing but good things for the next dozen years. Do I still need to watch the video?
What are the forces behind a secular trend? It seems very irrational to me to put an arbitrary time on a bull market and ignore macro factors - high rates in a highly indebted economy. I do agree that markets will continue to ignore risks and maybe they are right. The Fed always seems to save the day and the asset holders come out way richer. Unless this time is different lol
I'm a know-nothing retail guy, but my interpretation is that "the institutions" stepped in every time the S&P hit the 50th month MA and saved the trend. Is that a direct result of Fed policy? I have no idea. That might be true over the last 40 years. But I'm not sure it's true for the entire analysis here.
@@duezeri1968 good point on the current latest trend - it was institutions and not the fed. I more meant market participants are ignoring the dangers ahead but I guess thats the same thing. i.e. if there is a financial crisis, the fed will back stop the markets with more than enough liquidity to keep the secular trend going. so buy any dip as the fed has the markets back. such as the discount window for smaller banks etc. or preventing an upcoming credit crunch
we can always go back to history for data and comparison with the current situation, but back then there was no Russia/Ukraine war, inflation, rate hikes, China Vs USA cold war, anything can happen within a day or two and all these CMT data go bust, all I can sat risk what you can lose and sleep well.
@Jack "...all I can sat [say is] risk what you can lose..." Even in the past, there were wars, inflation, rate hikes, & the Cold War.
Have to say that I do agree with this long term view of yours but this is quite scary especially if someone wants to invest in high beta stocks..
Why is it scary? Don’t you mean exciting?
Who wants to invest in high beta stocks?
@@sebfox2194 I don't know man, maybe everyone that isn't you..?
@R N I'm just trying to figure out who you're talking about when you say "...this is quite scary especially if someone wants to invest in high beta stocks."
Comparing to a WORLD PANDEMIC and 0 interest rates for 10 years?????????
Good information but I do remember in early 2020 you were also saying the charts looked okay. So I take everything with a grain of salt.
Incredible catch at 38:38
are you at all concerned with the fed saying they will increase rates?
It doesnt matter. Thats obvious information. The market knows it, and if it was a concern the markets wouldve accounted for that. You need to have respect for the market or you’ll get your cheeks clapper. Its ALL about sentiment and positioning. Being contrarian with big balls in this market pays off.
Maybe. Maybe not
Plugs the investment after he lost it all during 2022 now trying to buy the 8 bar on the weekly chart and mega caps have 9 count on the monthly chart. Oof
Hi Ron
@@Swipe650 Ron Walker lolll?
@@Swipe650🤣🤣🤣
Are stocks "rising" or currency "falling"? Dow index was 18 ounces of gold in 1929 and 18 ounces of gold in 2022. Zero gain unless measured in Ponzi pixels and Ponzi paper. The real price never changes, only the fake price changes. Don't get fooled by Ponzi paper. Measure in honest gold and silver 3D money. Gasoline is the same price in 2023 as it was in 1960's measured in honest weights and measures, silver coins.
🚀🚀🚀
Looking at the NYSE is kind of redundant
and stock's could sink till 2035 this bull is worthless.
2026
This means around 2035 the S&P will be over 9000!!!
And Social Security will be insolvent.
'PromoSM'