That’s interesting. I’d like to see the stats of all the defenses minus the Ohio state game to see if they really make a big difference. All that said, I think Ohio state is the 2nd or 3rd best team in country and will win the big ten.
@@vichchamp If you cant see that Olave and Wilson are both LOCKS as 1st rounders then nothing else you will matters. Add in Njiba-Smith in the slot and there are just too many ELITE options to take away to shut down the passing game. Now of OSU didnt have a dynamic running game youd have a chance but to take away that deep threat you expose yourself to getting gashed by ELITE running backs. You arent shutting them down you have to have an offense that can score on every posession. That aint PSU.
@@cdobson3141 And that was when Stroud was less experienced and the defense was playing worst. Now the defense looks better and Stroud looks way better.
Why is it the rest of the world looking into Buckeye Nation says that Ohio State doesn’t play anyone and their schedule is weak but Clemson can beat up on a conference Full of clowns for years and be a complete and utter powerhouse ??? I’m sooooo happy Clemson is somehow terrible this year. They still shouldn’t be losing games with the talent they have.
No, they have issues that people are giving them a break on. A conference like the BIG TEN might have trouble nationally, but they usually have consistent programs and are not easy to beat.
This is an interesting model, but there are two critical aspects that it doesn't take into consideration. 1) The Penn State 1st stringers have sat for exactly two quarters the entire year (4th Q against Ball State and 4th Q against Villanova). The Ohio State 1st stringers have sat for about 8 quarters (cumulative). Both offensive and defensive stats are adversely affected when the 1st stringers go out. 2) The trend over the course of the year is clear: Ohio State is getting better and Penn State is not.
Penn State is going to be in a weird place hoping TreVeyon Henderson gets 200+ yards for Ohio State, because it means some combination of 1. Henderson is still in the game (he tends to get pulled about 2-3 series before Stroud) 2. Penn State is likely going with the optimum strategy of committing 7-8 defenders to contain the passing attack. If Clifford isn't MUCH closer to 100%, I don't see a Penn State path to victory - Ohio State's plausible floor is still over Penn State's plausible ceiling. 41-13.
Agreed PSU will have to pick their poison. The problem is OSU has a couple of running backs that get chunk yards. So it's not like OSU running the ball really slows things down a lot. When OSU comes out in their first empty set and CJ has 5 targets that can equally get big chunk yards, what does PSU do?
So much for the blowout. This played out just about how I predicted except than Penn state's offense scored a little more than I thought they would, but also scored more points of OSU than I thought they would. Turnovers were the margin of victory, though. And I hope no one will try to deny now that PSU's red zone defense is truly elite after they held OSU to one TD in six trips inside the 20.
No credit should be given for losing fan bases showing up...I’ve been here for years hearing about how terrible Miami is and how anything they do good doesn’t count because the ACC is the worst conference. As bad as the ACC is Miami has still llayed one of the toughest schedules so far in 2021 and outside of the Bama game and the final 8 minutes of the 4th vs Michigan St...Miami has only lost to Virginia by 2 and UNC by 3. We have a totally different team today because of injuries and this new team is better than the old one. Here’s to Miami beating Pitt, then everyone saying Putt was never any good.Everyone should show up because this channel is great and the content is elite.
The problem with saying Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana are all bottom of the B1G in pass defense is that they’ve all now been obliterated by the #1 offense in the country. Now, they may have still been down there somewhere, but it is a safe assumption that every B1G team that OSU plays this year will see their defensive averages take a huge hit after the game.
This x1000. That's why after a team plays the Buckeyes, they usually lose the next game or two. Ohio State beats teams down and exposes their weaknesses. Opponents get on tilt for a few weeks...Then their stats/records take a nosedive.
@@TheTexasorbusted right? Penn State loses to Ohio State in 17,18, and 19? They then lose to MSU twice then overlooked and lost to Minny. Michigan losing to Ohio state? They lose their bowl game
Well yeah. No other team has that great balance of run and pass. UM seems to have a good running game, but their QB has not been tested, whereas Stroud has been tested and why he failed, still put up 500 years s passing.
As a hardcore Buckeye fan, I honestly cannot predict. This is a Penn State game. Usually I would say this could be a nail biter at times. Something like 27-17. But with Clifford hurt and how awful their run defense was against Illinois it could be a blowout. Then again, Day has been conservative with Henderson's play. So either somewhat close or 49-14. All I know is I'll be sipping beers in the horse shoe and loving life. GO BUCKS!
PSU defensive stats look really good because they have not played an offense remotely as potent as the Buckeyes offense. Game is going to be ugly, Illinois ran for more than 300 yards. With OSUs enormous and talented OL and Henderson and Williams toting the rock how many yards will they run for? Which in turn will wear down and loosen up pass defense. 40+ point beatdown on Saturday night by the Buckeyes to really send a message.
54-12, OSU over PSU OSU commits to the run early forcing DB's and Saftey's to have to press up; opens deep ball RPO and the middle will be wide open as a result. Close early on w/ first half OSU 24 PSU 12; The Dam breaks open in the second half of the third quarter.
Clifford threw for 4.9 ypa against an Illinois defense that averaged 8.39 ypa and PSU ran for 2.1 ypa when Illinois defense averaged 4.39 ypa. Ohio State averaged 6.6 ypa passing and 3.22 ypa rushing. This could be another bloodbath. 52-13 with Henderson going for 200+ and 3 TDs
OSU hasn't faced anything remotely like PSU's pass defense or its red zone defense. Overall PSU is considerably better than Oregon on defense and OSU scored 35 in that game. OSU will still win, but this will probably be the lowest scoring game for their offense in the regular season. 31 or maybe 34 points for OSU against 7 to 13 for Penn State.
@@brucetucker4847 Ohio state is gaining 150% of opponents average per play. That would be 7.8 ypa attempt against PSU, if OSU is averaging 8 ypa against this PSU defense that can’t stop the run … it’s going to be lights out. Also while PSU is averaging 30.43% TD in the redzone (third in the country), OSU is averaging 79.32% TD in the redzone (also third in the country). Auburn is the best team PSU has faced and they’re only at 63.64% (55th in the country). This OSU offense is WAY more potent than anything PSU has faced, yes that’s including Auburn.
Interesting figures using a metric they provide: Indiana kept their opponents to 75.5% & 81.3% of their average YPA & YPG, respectively. OSU’s % relative to Indiana’s averages are 161% & 168%, respectively.
Don't forget these intangibles: 1. How much heart will PSU bring to the Scarlet Out knowing that they are completely out of the playoff discussion. 2. Is Franklin in discussions behind closed doors with USC and/or LSU? Could he be seeing the ship sinking at Beaver Stadium?
This is a no-win scenario for Ohio State this week. If they blow PSU out (I predict 52-14) then people will say that PSU must have just been overrated. If they play close and win a tight game, the questions will be raised about how good the offense REALLY is. If they lose, then people say OSU was overrated all along. I just want to get through the game and see where we go from here.
I'm here for this! Love the live show! The analysis of the Buckeyes is sound and insightful. Buckeyes defense is improving...coaching staff is playing young inexperienced players which they're rotating. The offense is a joy to watch! One thing to consider, although the starting WRs( Olave. Wilson, and Njigba) have been getting theirs Stroud is hitting the TEs which will break a defense in the passing game. Night game in the Shoe, alternate uniforms and Day's philosophy to destroy you in the second quarter....48 -17 Buckeyes!
Ohio State's offense is scoring 40+ points on teams in the first half that have legit defenses. Rutgers gave up 20 to Michigan the week before OSU and Ohio State led 45-6 at half. Indiana gave up 20 points the week before to Michigan State -- Ohio State led 44-7 at half. You just don't see anyone else doing that (especially against power 5 opponents). As a result Ohio State has been playing lots of backup players who are getting game experience - a big plus - but a hit against their own stats. Ohio State took 75 players to Indiana and 67 played (even more played against Maryland and Rutgers). Recently Penn State has been Ohio State's toughest conference game each year... Not this year Ohio State 52 - Penn State 17
Ohio State 51 and Penn State 20. I wouldn't be surprised if Penn State has an even lower score than this. Red Zone defense will stop OSU a few times but the difference maker will be the running back room and the ability for OSU to control the line of scrimmage. Trey will get more carries this game and even when he's not in play Miyan Williams will pose a threat as well. The O-Line is going to be a force to be reckoned with, mainly because of their size. With small RBs like Trey behind guys that are 6'-8" the defense won't be able to get a god idea where he is until he's making the jump cuts and completely avoiding tackles. If Penn State has the personnel, their best bet is to blitz and give CJ some hell. He's still not completely confident in himself and making him run and getting to him will make the difference.
We learn a great deal about this Buckeye team this week. Its very clear that PSU was looking ahead this past weekend and given the previous matchups between these two teams I think PSU will get up for this game. 1st half it should be a battle but I believe we separate late in the game due to PSU’s inability to score. Buckeyes have a clear mission & no one in the Big Ten will be able to stop them. Love you guys analysis. Thanks for what you do!
@@easyenetwork2023 they’re flawed, yes. But, they’re called trap games for a reason. Penn State was coming off of a very emotional top 5 matchup with Illinois squeezed between what could’ve been another top 10 matchup. Very easy for players to lose focus with a lesser opponent. PSU got caught up in the moment wasn’t prepared. I still think they’re a good defensive team and will test the buckeyes early.
I'm not convinced PSU can slow down the buckeyes passing offense either, even playing cover 2 deep. I think PSU will get some shots in on offense but like you said, I can't see them putting up 30 points. Henderson will go OFF, and I think we'll see some big plays from slot/TE. There are just too many wildly talented pass catchers to expect the nittany lions to cover. Also, if they turn the ball over more than once the score will be worse than this V OSU - 45 PSU - 19
They haven’t played anyone dies when they sweep and take the B1G title both Michigan teams coming into their games with Ohio State with one loss or less gives all the schedule they need
Keep talking about how pedestrian the pass defense has been for Ohio St but let’s not forget they’ve held 2 of the last 3 opponents to half a yard less per pass less than their avg. the only exception is Indiana, who only threw for 80 yards, of which most was on the first drive.
I would like to add that since Ohio St has switched to a 2 high safety look and are asking the LB’s to play zone the run defense has been much better. Those first two game numbers have inflated the numbers. I think this game is going to get out of hand more than what the model says
Penn St has a better defense than all teams Ohio St has played so far. But the Penn St offense isn't good enough. This model is probably close to right.
Ohio State is averaging almost 50 points a game. If Penn State can only score 10 points against Illinois what makes you think PSU can put together even a few offensive drives? With Clifford a shell of himself and no decent offense, I see Ohio State dominated time of possession, which will wear out the defense. I could see Ohio State hitting its average. 50+ - 14. Depends on how Ryan Day wants to let it go.
Thank you nerds for the sound analysis that is actually backed by data. OSU 49 PSU 17 I think Ruckert goes off as PSU attempts to limit Olave and Wilson.
Love this score. Was thinking 45-17 myself. And I really like Jeremy and Jaxson having good outings in an attempt to LIMIT Chris and Garrett (although I don’t believe PSU can do that for 4 quarters). Look for Jaxson to have a lot of yards but OSU look for Olave in the endzone (as he always plays up on big games and is reaching for the all time TD record)☺️
I don't see it. OSU will probably win but Penn State's red zone defense is very good and they will hold OSU to FGs more than once. 34-13 is more likely.
psu had a chance with healthy qb and healthy line but loss of PJ Mustipher showed on run defense and an injured Clifford will not be able to play OSU THIS WEEKEND>
Buckeyes bringing the beat stick. 45-17. The flip side of the coin of OSU is about to face the "gauntlet" of the best pass defenses in the Big 10, well who have those teams played that have prolific pass offenses??? Answer - no one. OSU has the best WR core in the country and its not even close.
Ohio state 55 penn state 16. Trey Henderson shreds early and opens up the play action for some big hits. Hard to imagine their offense staying on the field, and they won’t keep us out of the end zone. Go Bucks.
Penn State's defense isn't falling apart. They still held IL to 10 points with absolutely no help from the offense, and they very nearly held on against Iowa with the offense in full catastrophe mode. I think something like 34-10 is a lot more likely.
Ohio states offense is NOT designed around the RPO. They do run plays that have a run pass option. But so does every team in football. Ryan day runs a SPREAD WEST COAST offense. Which means possession pass game to set up the run to set up the deep game. This is the formula. 3 years now and you keep referring to them running the RPO offense. They DO NOT RUN the run pass option offense. They have some plays where they read linebackers and players in the secondary with an option to pass or run. Like a handful. They do NOT run the RPO offense.
OSU 52 Penn State 24 Dotson gets loose for one long ball early to keep it close for a quarter. Then Ohio States even offensive attack keeps Penn State unbalanced and Ohio State doesn't take the foot off the gas.
OK listened. We just have too many injuries. There is no way we lose against Illinois with a healthy team. However, it is fair to say we lack depth, and will for many years. As far as the projection..mine is already listed. I don’t know how either Daniel or Josh think Penn State can get above 9 points. We have an offense predicated on Clifford and he is not right. That is all of the analysis needed.
I'ma BAMA fan, and all about the SEC but I'm impressed with the strength of the big 10 top to bottom, it's about to get to the nitty gritty in the big 10, I'm looking forward to these upcoming Big 10 matchups, in my opinion OSU is the King of the Big 10 until someone knocks them off, Michigan or MSU might just do that, I still think the best two teams in the country is BAMA and Georgia, The big 10 and the SEC probably has 4-5 teams that would beat jokelahoma
I feel like OSU is the king even if they get beat by a Michigan team this year. The Michigan teams combined have like 2 national titles since the 1940s after the war. OSU has 8 titles since 1942
as a penn state fan, i’m actually really excited about this game. my expectations for this team couldn’t be lower than they are, so I’m hoping maybe i’ll be pleasantly surprised. That’s doubtful though, so it’ll be nice going into a big game with no crushing expectations lmao
45-14 buckeyes roll. penn state keeps it close for the first quarter, just like indiana. Then the buckeyes overwhelm this tainted penn state team with the explosiveness of the offense to the point where the nittany lions pack up mentally and go home before end of 3rd quarter
If they score over 50 again they'll be the only team to ever have scored consecutively like that in history. Ohio State is chasing history this Saturday. Chris Olave could be the best WR ever to of played at Ohio State, Henderson could be the best freshman, Stroud being the best freshman QB, and there's other records as well. Ohio State is definitely aware of this, but they'll play their game still. Going to be exciting.
@@hollinsd Same! I think they will, because now the depth is playing. I saw Ryan Days face when the 2nd and 3rd string players were out here. They're hungry for success and I think if utilized the right way this Saturday. The score could run up fast.
@@cthompoucat13 Thanks Chris! I've been studying their defense for the past few weeks. Their defense is getting really good. Matt Barnes is going to be a great head coach one day. He's only 35 years old and he was given a opportunity to change up the defense. He's done an absolute great job at that. He's made some serious changes to the defense. Now we're witnessing lanes being closed, wr routes being closed off, and they're coming for the QBs neck on both sides including the middle. Expect the defense to make a statement this weekend. The offense will always be clicking. Players are also coming back this weekend. I'm excited for the match ups. This weekend is going to be a big game changer. 📈🏈
@@CollegeFootballNerds They let Iowa score 34.. is that good? They let Cincy score 38... is that good.. They let Western Kentucky score 31.. is that good .. Penn State scored 24 (which is ok i guess).. Michigan state to 20 is good. 54 to OSU? I see an average defense. They may have played decent teams but most of them are offensively challenged.
PSU Pass Defense - but who have they played that have elite passing offenses or even average offenses. Wisky? No. Indiana? No. Illinois? No. Auburn? Doubtful. I predict after next week's game their pass defense stats are much much worse
It is unfortunate that this did not happen a couple of days later. The line went from -12.5 to -18.5 so, even with all that PSU-hate :-) jk Daniel would be slightly on the take PSU side. Ofc, you could claim the line moved 6 points *because* of this (UGA/UK flex) Does the model explicitly or implicitly have a discontinuity? At some point, do the metrics that help decide whether it is 3 or 7 point margin have the same predictive value with, for example, 22 vs 28 point margin? About when does that happen and is this game close? My hot take was always that PSU was 2021 ISU. A good team the FOTM crowd over-hyped.
This game will not be close in my opinion. Penn State has had a rough 2 weeks coming off back to back heartbreaking losses. Their QB is clearly still not healthy and now they have to go play one of the hottest teams in the country. Recipe for blowout. OSU 42 PSU 17
Penn state fan here. I do not see a path to victory with how the last two games have played out. Cliff is like at 50% and his backups are so bad they let the man play with (probably) broken ribs. Our run offense is near non existent and our pass game is entirely dependent on a healthy Clifford, which we do not have. Osu’s receivers are good, regardless of who they are matching up with. I predict an ugly loss for penn state. OSU will easily cover the spread here
@@CollegeFootballNerds Idk cause as an Ohio State fan, I respect the heck outta Penn States program and what Franklin has done, however, what I don’t get is why can’t they recruit an offensive line? They recruit talented receivers, good ESPN 300 RBs, Very talented QBs though not elite but they got a great one coming from 2022 class, they have the skill players to put a good offense but offensive line always lets down the offense and every single matchup with Ohio State, the highlight play is always the D-Line getting a TFL, or an important sack to seal the game, or the dominance in shutting down the run game in 2020 and 2017. Their defense has talent everywhere as well and I think they are the toughest defense we’ll play unless we get to Indy facing Iowa. Penn State has a good pass defense and respectable run D (well until Illinois on the latter) they can jump short routes for INTs but they been dropping them, if I were Franklin, get the secondary to practice catching INTs cause in Auburn game and Illinois game, they dropped major INTs that could’ve been pick 6s. Then they may have a shot but with hurt Clifford, weak O-Line making run game weak, Penn State don’t have a chance vs Ohio State.
This game is not gonna be close. Ohio State completely changed after that defensive disaster vs Oregon. Their secondary is elite, they go stride for stride and had never allowed a deep ball. Probably gonna have to throw prayers to Dotson coming down with ball but Ohio State is not only good at intercepting passes, but also returning them for touchdowns. Penn State has no O-Line that can hold this Ohio State D-Line ever since Franklin was coaching at Penn State. The Run game will not exist for them, and Sean Clifford last year had the most attempts rushing in first half last year but he’s hurt this year. Penn State’s defense cannot stop Illinois’s rush attack? Oh boy imagine this dominant O-Line with Treveyon Henderson can do. The shoe is gonna make Franklin and this Penn State have a miserable time for the next 3 and a half hours there
I was very disturbed by the d-line play early, but the DEs are better , & man do those DTs look like real beasts. The young guys could be monsters in year 3
Ohio State is a different monster now. Keep in mind the past few games some of their best athletes have been missing games as well. They're scoring over 50+ points a game and we haven't saw that consecutively since 1903. This could perhaps be the best offense we've saw ever. If Penn State wants to match up and compete they'll have to respect the Buckeyes on both sides. If they show up arrogant they'll get embarrassed. Coach Franklin needs to set a tone early or they'll be dead by the 2nd quarter. Ohio State is starting to play ALL 4 quarters now with their impressive depth. I don't care what anyone says about their defense. I've watched and studied their defense for the past few games. 35 year old Matt Barnes is calling the shots and he's going to be a target for head coach positions in the near future. That defense is looking scary Pass Rush and very fast after being embarrassed by Oregon. Ohio State's defense isn't giving QBs time to think. They're playing the sides better than before. They're communicating to each other and setting up zone matchups to throw off WR routes. They kept Indiana to like 100+ yards and that didn't take place till the 4th quarter. They're closing the lanes way faster and it's because of their depth. You can't coach against depth and talent. Penn State once again needs to come in the horseshoe with respect. That's the only way they'll create noise. They don't need to react they need to set a tone. They need to play balanced and conservative. Milk off the clock and execute. Ohio State is like a shark in the water if they see red they will attack and it will be over. Simple as that. Goodluck!
First off let's go Braves. Let's win the World Series! :) Anyway as a Florida fan I am not really hyped about this weekend having to play UGA. That game may be ugly.😟 Back to the game preview, I think Ohio State will win this game. I just feel Ohio State will have a great day throwing the ball on Penn State. I mean like you guys were saying Auburn had sucess something throwing the ball on Penn State. If Penn State can't stop the pass and Sean Clifford isn't 100% still, this could be a long game for Penn State. The Ohio State passing game will open up the exposive running plays later on. I do have some questions though, with C.J. Stround. Is he better because Ohio State haven't had to play teams like Oregon and Minnesota again. You know teams that have a pluse. I mean Tulsa,Akron,Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana aren't what I call teams with a pluse. I give Ohio State credit they did what they were suppose to do and win by a lot. So now my take on how Penn State could win the game and pull the upset. Number 1 on my list for pulling the upset is Sean Clifford needs to play a great game and be 100% healthy. Next would be Penn State needs to look at what Oregon did to Ohio State when they played and try to do a similar game plan to that. I feel this Ohio State denfense hasn't been pushed again like they were against Minnesota (rushing total: 203 on Ohio State) and Oregon (rushing total :269 on Ohio State). Penn State may have a good amount of success running the ball on Ohio State. They will need their denfense to come up with stops and some turnovers. Plus this denfense needs to make C.J Stround feel pressure when in the pocket and throw new looks at him,he has never seen. I think Penn State may be a little more battle tested as they have played Wisconsin,Auburn, and Iowa....but not by much. Overall I think Ohio State wins. Their has to be a lot of things to go right for Penn State to win this game. Best of luck to both of these teams. 😄 Ohio State: 35 Penn State: 24
Stroud passed for nearly 500 yards with an 82.7 QBR against Oregon (for reference, that 82.7 would be the 7th highest rated QB this season), and he has since moved to #1 at a whopping 91.7. He wasn't the reason we lost that game. If you haven't actually watched this team play, I would encourage it. The offense is something beautiful to behold. An interesting stat, OSU had 19 straight TDs going into the second half of the Indiana game when Stroud was leading the offense. 19 STRAIGHT TDS. Indiana is a a decent defense, even potentially a decent team (if they still had Penix) that ran into a buzzsaw of a schedule. Four of their five losses are to teams currently ranked in the top 9. Their fifth loss was to PSU, who was a legit top 10 team before Clifford got injured. As for the defense, anyone can see things have changed since week 2. I don't care about the competition, just look at the quality of play, the gap soundness, the movement to the ball, the QB pressures. This is not the same defense from week 2. A ton of people getting major time, or even starting, are true freshmen, or RS freshmen. It was always going to take time to grow, develop, and gain experience. Now you are seeing the talent start to round into shape. Some of these teams have scholarship guys, too. Rakim Jarrett is a 5* receiver playing for Maryland. He had 1 catch on us. Fryfogle was the B1G WR of the year in 2020. He had one catch against us.
@@danielmcneese3908 Ok that first paragraph can be true. But C.J is still learning on the go. Even though C.J did do that, it still wasn't enough to win the game. Now yes it wasn't all his fault I understand bad denfenive play...(trust me as a Florida fan I understand.) But I don't take Indiana has a good denfenive team. Plus Indiana wasn't going to push Ohio State like a Oregon and a Minnesota did when it came to offense. But if you think that then Ohio State just tried out Indiana's denfense. I still think Ohio State is going to win. I think Ryan Day is a great play caller, I am just worried about what Penn State can do denfensively to make C.J not feel at ease in the pocket. Now the denfense, that is where I have to disagree. Those teams you have played aren't good enough and won't push Ohio State when it comes to seeing if there denfense has gotten better. I think saying you don't care about the competion is not putting things in line here. Now if I am wrong about the denfense I will come back and say you were right.
You're the best college analysis show out there. Love the analytics you've created, and they are on point! Big Buckeye fan and you are also very fair to the Big Ten and the Buckeyes in particular.
I know you guys are cautious on OSU because of the way you look at stats but the eye test doesn't lie. Even if their schedule is subpar this is currently the 2nd best team in the country and CJ Stroud should be the Heisman front runner. His QB rating in October is 229...for comparison, that's better than Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield.
Penn State will be playing angry. And they have nothing to lose now, which will allow them to play with nasty abandon. This makes PSU dangerous in this one. But I expect the Buckeyes to handle business. OSU 42 PSU 20
An average defense for OSU is enough to beat anyone not named bama and Georgia with their offense, it might be enough to beat them too, but it remains to be seen
OSU defense is going to continue to get better as the players from the 2020 and 2021 classes get more reps and further entrenched into the rotations. Tyeke Williams is looking like those wrecking balls Bama usually has playing nose tackle. You aren't blocking him once JTT and Sawyer start to really come on. The upside on the OSU defensive front 7 is HIGH. They'll be limited at safety with Proctor's injury, but the emergence of Hickman the past month has made a huge impact.
Ohio State 40-13. Only way to keep Ohio State from scoring is to keep their offense off the field. Minnesota was doing that until Ibrahim went down with the season ending injury.
That won’t end any time soon. But, I’ve seen numerous times other teams play very close games and that game is called great (Oklahoma vs Texas, Michigan vs Nebraska). Ohio State blows out a team and it’s “well………………let’s wait until this and that.”
You mentioned OSU offense versus the defense they've played but how is Penn State defense benefitted from the QBs they've played. I mean just Iowa & Illinois alone probably skew they're passing defensive stats right?
Ohio State 38 Penn St 14. Buckeyes have too much firepower. Idk how you stop Henderson and this run game when you gave up almost 400 yards on the ground to Illinois.
Looking at the passing offenses Penn State has faced....look pretty weak to me. Maybe OSU hasn't faced tough pass defenses the past few weeks...but PSU DEFINITELY hasn't seen an offense like this. NFL players at all positions...many first rounders.
People always overlook them . Stupid . Reason My team (UM) having good year. But think JJ needs to start for mich to beat osu. Rn we can’t win high score game vs osu .
With a healthy Clifford, PSU could have competed for a little bit. In their current state, Ohio State runs roughshod over PSU. I'm predicting a blowout of epic proportions. 55-10 OSU.
@@andrewmueller9986 I agree, they are good. PSU has a legit defense. However, this offense is on another level. Combine that with PSU most likely being unable to sustain drives in their current offensive state ,and giving the ball back to OSU, and this is a recipe for disaster. This OSU offense may be the best offense I’ve ever seen. They don’t have a weakness, every position is a strength fortified by an early round draft pick player.
I'll admit that I've struggled with some of your analyses of Penn State earlier this year, but this is a fantastic video. Fair and honest assessment of a match-up that suddenly has lost much of its pre-season intrigue. As a Penn State fan still processing the disgusting performance/coaching of this past weekend's game, I agree that a 20+ point OSU victory feels fairly certain barring some big-time PSU defensive plays. My hope is they show some actual fight and keep the margin respectable, and get into a final stretch of the schedule where winning 3 of the last 4 isn't out of the question (if we get back to our level of play in the 1st half of the season).
I feel bad for how bad your team 💩 itself against Illinois. They just 💩 the 🛏 and lost a game that they should not have lost. Though OSU could still stumble in the next few weeks as most of the games they play are against the best teams in the conference.
It’ll be closer than people are saying.
Like what, under 2 TDs? I see no way we lose though.
Agree PSU plays OSU very well. This is their rivalry game
There's a reason that the Big Ten teams that Ohio St hasn't played have better statistical defenses; Ohio St hasn't played them yet.
That’s interesting. I’d like to see the stats of all the defenses minus the Ohio state game to see if they really make a big difference.
All that said, I think Ohio state is the 2nd or 3rd best team in country and will win the big ten.
Good point
Did the math, if u take osu stats out, Rutgers is 6th, Maryland is 9th, Minnesota is 10th, and Indiana is 11th in pass defense
@@vichchamp If you cant see that Olave and Wilson are both LOCKS as 1st rounders then nothing else you will matters. Add in Njiba-Smith in the slot and there are just too many ELITE options to take away to shut down the passing game. Now of OSU didnt have a dynamic running game youd have a chance but to take away that deep threat you expose yourself to getting gashed by ELITE running backs. You arent shutting them down you have to have an offense that can score on every posession. That aint PSU.
@@cdobson3141 And that was when Stroud was less experienced and the defense was playing worst. Now the defense looks better and Stroud looks way better.
Good show fellas , God bless !
OSU 57 Penn State 3
Love the video as always, good analysis guys.
Why is it the rest of the world looking into Buckeye Nation says that Ohio State doesn’t play anyone and their schedule is weak but Clemson can beat up on a conference Full of clowns for years and be a complete and utter powerhouse ??? I’m sooooo happy Clemson is somehow terrible this year. They still shouldn’t be losing games with the talent they have.
No, they have issues that people are giving them a break on. A conference like the BIG TEN might have trouble nationally, but they usually have consistent programs and are not easy to beat.
This is an interesting model, but there are two critical aspects that it doesn't take into consideration. 1) The Penn State 1st stringers have sat for exactly two quarters the entire year (4th Q against Ball State and 4th Q against Villanova). The Ohio State 1st stringers have sat for about 8 quarters (cumulative). Both offensive and defensive stats are adversely affected when the 1st stringers go out. 2) The trend over the course of the year is clear: Ohio State is getting better and Penn State is not.
Penn State is going to be in a weird place hoping TreVeyon Henderson gets 200+ yards for Ohio State, because it means some combination of
1. Henderson is still in the game (he tends to get pulled about 2-3 series before Stroud)
2. Penn State is likely going with the optimum strategy of committing 7-8 defenders to contain the passing attack.
If Clifford isn't MUCH closer to 100%, I don't see a Penn State path to victory - Ohio State's plausible floor is still over Penn State's plausible ceiling. 41-13.
Agreed PSU will have to pick their poison. The problem is OSU has a couple of running backs that get chunk yards. So it's not like OSU running the ball really slows things down a lot. When OSU comes out in their first empty set and CJ has 5 targets that can equally get big chunk yards, what does PSU do?
So much for the blowout. This played out just about how I predicted except than Penn state's offense scored a little more than I thought they would, but also scored more points of OSU than I thought they would. Turnovers were the margin of victory, though. And I hope no one will try to deny now that PSU's red zone defense is truly elite after they held OSU to one TD in six trips inside the 20.
No credit should be given for losing fan bases showing up...I’ve been here for years hearing about how terrible Miami is and how anything they do good doesn’t count because the ACC is the worst conference. As bad as the ACC is Miami has still llayed one of the toughest schedules so far in 2021 and outside of the Bama game and the final 8 minutes of the 4th vs Michigan St...Miami has only lost to Virginia by 2 and UNC by 3. We have a totally different team today because of injuries and this new team is better than the old one. Here’s to Miami beating Pitt, then everyone saying Putt was never any good.Everyone should show up because this channel is great and the content is elite.
The problem with saying Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana are all bottom of the B1G in pass defense is that they’ve all now been obliterated by the #1 offense in the country. Now, they may have still been down there somewhere, but it is a safe assumption that every B1G team that OSU plays this year will see their defensive averages take a huge hit after the game.
This x1000. That's why after a team plays the Buckeyes, they usually lose the next game or two. Ohio State beats teams down and exposes their weaknesses. Opponents get on tilt for a few weeks...Then their stats/records take a nosedive.
@@TheTexasorbusted right? Penn State loses to Ohio State in 17,18, and 19? They then lose to MSU twice then overlooked and lost to Minny.
Michigan losing to Ohio state? They lose their bowl game
@@robertolebron2296 Pretty much. BTW, I've never seen a stat like we are talking about, "The exposed stat". How teams perform after playing team X...
Well yeah. No other team has that great balance of run and pass. UM seems to have a good running game, but their QB has not been tested, whereas Stroud has been tested and why he failed, still put up 500 years s passing.
As a hardcore Buckeye fan, I honestly cannot predict. This is a Penn State game. Usually I would say this could be a nail biter at times. Something like 27-17. But with Clifford hurt and how awful their run defense was against Illinois it could be a blowout. Then again, Day has been conservative with Henderson's play. So either somewhat close or 49-14.
All I know is I'll be sipping beers in the horse shoe and loving life. GO BUCKS!
PSU defensive stats look really good because they have not played an offense remotely as potent as the Buckeyes offense. Game is going to be ugly, Illinois ran for more than 300 yards. With OSUs enormous and talented OL and Henderson and Williams toting the rock how many yards will they run for? Which in turn will wear down and loosen up pass defense. 40+ point beatdown on Saturday night by the Buckeyes to really send a message.
The difference is, OSU can run and throw now.
Great content and analysis as always guys!
54-12, OSU over PSU OSU commits to the run early forcing DB's and Saftey's to have to press up; opens deep ball RPO and the middle will be wide open as a result. Close early on w/ first half OSU 24 PSU 12; The Dam breaks open in the second half of the third quarter.
Clifford threw for 4.9 ypa against an Illinois defense that averaged 8.39 ypa and PSU ran for 2.1 ypa when Illinois defense averaged 4.39 ypa.
Ohio State averaged 6.6 ypa passing and 3.22 ypa rushing. This could be another bloodbath.
52-13 with Henderson going for 200+ and 3 TDs
As a team rushing, OSU is 6.2 ypa, passing is at 10.8 ypc.
@@easyenetwork2023 my stats are defensive, not offensive
OSU hasn't faced anything remotely like PSU's pass defense or its red zone defense. Overall PSU is considerably better than Oregon on defense and OSU scored 35 in that game. OSU will still win, but this will probably be the lowest scoring game for their offense in the regular season. 31 or maybe 34 points for OSU against 7 to 13 for Penn State.
@@brucetucker4847 Ohio state is gaining 150% of opponents average per play. That would be 7.8 ypa attempt against PSU, if OSU is averaging 8 ypa against this PSU defense that can’t stop the run … it’s going to be lights out.
Also while PSU is averaging 30.43% TD in the redzone (third in the country), OSU is averaging 79.32% TD in the redzone (also third in the country). Auburn is the best team PSU has faced and they’re only at 63.64% (55th in the country).
This OSU offense is WAY more potent than anything PSU has faced, yes that’s including Auburn.
@@buckguy720 Which is why they'll score 50% more than Auburn did, around 30-34 points. Not 50+.
Interesting figures using a metric they provide: Indiana kept their opponents to 75.5% & 81.3% of their average YPA & YPG, respectively. OSU’s % relative to Indiana’s averages are 161% & 168%, respectively.
So, they were good against average offenses and bad against an elite offense, not that shocking.
Don't forget these intangibles: 1. How much heart will PSU bring to the Scarlet Out knowing that they are completely out of the playoff discussion. 2. Is Franklin in discussions behind closed doors with USC and/or LSU? Could he be seeing the ship sinking at Beaver Stadium?
Also Ryan Day will want to put PSU in their place. Don't underestimate that!
@@jmg5366 Yeah, the motivation knowing they have made OSU the whiteout game recently, means Day will be determined to humiliate Franklin.
Oregon will motivate Day the rest of the year.
This is a no-win scenario for Ohio State this week. If they blow PSU out (I predict 52-14) then people will say that PSU must have just been overrated. If they play close and win a tight game, the questions will be raised about how good the offense REALLY is. If they lose, then people say OSU was overrated all along. I just want to get through the game and see where we go from here.
before watching: I think OSU probably blows the doors off PSU sparking major james franklin to USC talk
I'm here for this! Love the live show!
The analysis of the Buckeyes is sound and insightful. Buckeyes defense is improving...coaching staff is playing young inexperienced players which they're rotating. The offense is a joy to watch! One thing to consider, although the starting WRs( Olave. Wilson, and Njigba) have been getting theirs Stroud is hitting the TEs which will break a defense in the passing game. Night game in the Shoe, alternate uniforms and Day's philosophy to destroy you in the second quarter....48 -17 Buckeyes!
There is no conceivable circumstance under which Penn State can score 17 points.
@@stephenlight647 If they pump the big red dog with drugs and he pops off is the only way PSU has a chance
Yeah, not enough people are giving the defense a little break for being young in the LB Corp and secondary.
@@easyenetwork2023 agreed. I can't imagine a scenario that they don't improve a lot come end of season/CFP
51 to 14 OSU
Ohio State's offense is scoring 40+ points on teams in the first half that have legit defenses. Rutgers gave up 20 to Michigan the week before OSU and Ohio State led 45-6 at half. Indiana gave up 20 points the week before to Michigan State -- Ohio State led 44-7 at half. You just don't see anyone else doing that (especially against power 5 opponents). As a result Ohio State has been playing lots of backup players who are getting game experience - a big plus - but a hit against their own stats. Ohio State took 75 players to Indiana and 67 played (even more played against Maryland and Rutgers). Recently Penn State has been Ohio State's toughest conference game each year... Not this year Ohio State 52 - Penn State 17
Ohio State 51 and Penn State 20. I wouldn't be surprised if Penn State has an even lower score than this. Red Zone defense will stop OSU a few times but the difference maker will be the running back room and the ability for OSU to control the line of scrimmage. Trey will get more carries this game and even when he's not in play Miyan Williams will pose a threat as well. The O-Line is going to be a force to be reckoned with, mainly because of their size. With small RBs like Trey behind guys that are 6'-8" the defense won't be able to get a god idea where he is until he's making the jump cuts and completely avoiding tackles. If Penn State has the personnel, their best bet is to blitz and give CJ some hell. He's still not completely confident in himself and making him run and getting to him will make the difference.
We learn a great deal about this Buckeye team this week. Its very clear that PSU was looking ahead this past weekend and given the previous matchups between these two teams I think PSU will get up for this game. 1st half it should be a battle but I believe we separate late in the game due to PSU’s inability to score. Buckeyes have a clear mission & no one in the Big Ten will be able to stop them. Love you guys analysis. Thanks for what you do!
Even if they were looking ahead, losing to Illinois was not because they took them for granted. Illinois is not great, but PSU has a lot of flaws.
@@easyenetwork2023 they’re flawed, yes. But, they’re called trap games for a reason. Penn State was coming off of a very emotional top 5 matchup with Illinois squeezed between what could’ve been another top 10 matchup. Very easy for players to lose focus with a lesser opponent. PSU got caught up in the moment wasn’t prepared. I still think they’re a good defensive team and will test the buckeyes early.
Penn State couldn't get 2 yards 400 times in a row. It's going to be sad.
Hey will you guys do a Michigan State vs Michigan preview?
Already did, dropping tomorrow
@@CollegeFootballNerds That's great! I just came across your channel today and love the videos
I think that the 9ot vs Illinois wore down Sean Clifford
good analysis guys, really good. 44-24 buckeyes
I'm not convinced PSU can slow down the buckeyes passing offense either, even playing cover 2 deep. I think PSU will get some shots in on offense but like you said, I can't see them putting up 30 points. Henderson will go OFF, and I think we'll see some big plays from slot/TE. There are just too many wildly talented pass catchers to expect the nittany lions to cover. Also, if they turn the ball over more than once the score will be worse than this V
OSU - 45
PSU - 19
One blocked FG 5 years ago and PSU gets viewed as a real rival to OSU.
😂😂
42-17 OSU. I don't see the "they haven't played anyone" claims dying out anytime soon though...
Means more rest for Stroud’s shoulder and Henderson staying healthy. So that’s a good thing
Yep. This is just a fact when you are so much better than the teams on your schedule---except for the Oregon game.
They haven’t played anyone dies when they sweep and take the B1G title both Michigan teams coming into their games with Ohio State with one loss or less gives all the schedule they need
@@iamtheoysterking I'd like to think so, but I'm not confident that everyone will share our viewpoint :)
Keep talking about how pedestrian the pass defense has been for Ohio St but let’s not forget they’ve held 2 of the last 3 opponents to half a yard less per pass less than their avg. the only exception is Indiana, who only threw for 80 yards, of which most was on the first drive.
Ohio State has completely revamped its defense, plus they were very young. Raw freshmen have basically turned into sophomores.
49 Buckeyes 10 Nittany Lions ! Warning to All the Rest ! Bucks are REAL !
Please tell me you guys are doing Michigan - Michigan State too. As an Ohio State fan, I would be very much interested.
We recorded a short preview - it'll likely be up tomorrow.
I would like to add that since Ohio St has switched to a 2 high safety look and are asking the LB’s to play zone the run defense has been much better. Those first two game numbers have inflated the numbers. I think this game is going to get out of hand more than what the model says
Not the same scheme or personell
Penn St has a better defense than all teams Ohio St has played so far. But the Penn St offense isn't good enough. This model is probably close to right.
Penn State is 26th in total defense. Minnesota is like 17th. Where did you get your assumption from?
My score is Ohio State 52 Penn State 17 🏈📈
Ohio State is averaging almost 50 points a game. If Penn State can only score 10 points against Illinois what makes you think PSU can put together even a few offensive drives? With Clifford a shell of himself and no decent offense, I see Ohio State dominated time of possession, which will wear out the defense. I could see Ohio State hitting its average. 50+ - 14. Depends on how Ryan Day wants to let it go.
More scoring probably means you give up more points, which is why it could be 42-24, but not that close.
Ohio State wins 51-20 (with one of Penn States TDs in garbage time. ) Stroud 5 TDs and Day puts in McCord/Miller with 5 minutes left in 3rd Qtr.
Thank you nerds for the sound analysis that is actually backed by data. OSU 49 PSU 17 I think Ruckert goes off as PSU attempts to limit Olave and Wilson.
I think that's why OSU showcased Ruckert against Indiana. It gives something else for PSU to worry about.
Love this score. Was thinking 45-17 myself. And I really like Jeremy and Jaxson having good outings in an attempt to LIMIT Chris and Garrett (although I don’t believe PSU can do that for 4 quarters). Look for Jaxson to have a lot of yards but OSU look for Olave in the endzone (as he always plays up on big games and is reaching for the all time TD record)☺️
Dont forget Smith-Njigba and Ebuka as well
@@Ghost_of_a_Flea I said Jaxson
35-14 it’s a one score at half time but OSU pulls way ahead in the second half.
I don't see it. OSU will probably win but Penn State's red zone defense is very good and they will hold OSU to FGs more than once. 34-13 is more likely.
boy this thing lost some luster huh, watching penn st try and get 3 yards in ot was tuff real tuff to watch
They should have punted.
Give me 56-17 Buckeyes 🌰 Go Bucks
Hey guys thanks for the content. I need to point out that Chris Olave wears the number 2 now. Please fix when you get the time. Oh
psu had a chance with healthy qb and healthy line but loss of PJ Mustipher showed on run defense and an injured Clifford will not be able to play OSU THIS WEEKEND>
If they cannot stop Illinois RBs, they will hate defending an elite backfield.
Buckeyes bringing the beat stick. 45-17. The flip side of the coin of OSU is about to face the "gauntlet" of the best pass defenses in the Big 10, well who have those teams played that have prolific pass offenses??? Answer - no one. OSU has the best WR core in the country and its not even close.
Ohio state 55 penn state 16. Trey Henderson shreds early and opens up the play action for some big hits. Hard to imagine their offense staying on the field, and they won’t keep us out of the end zone. Go Bucks.
Ohio State 34, Penn State 26 is what my model spat out, but with Clifford hurt and Penn State falling apart I'd go with Ohio State 41, Penn State 21.
Penn State's defense isn't falling apart. They still held IL to 10 points with absolutely no help from the offense, and they very nearly held on against Iowa with the offense in full catastrophe mode. I think something like 34-10 is a lot more likely.
If PSU can contain Henderson, then I think this game is really close. If not, then don’t be surprised if they hang 50 on em.
They could knock him out on the first play and OSU would win by 15.
Ohio states offense is NOT designed around the RPO. They do run plays that have a run pass option. But so does every team in football. Ryan day runs a SPREAD WEST COAST offense. Which means possession pass game to set up the run to set up the deep game. This is the formula. 3 years now and you keep referring to them running the RPO offense. They DO NOT RUN the run pass option offense. They have some plays where they read linebackers and players in the secondary with an option to pass or run. Like a handful. They do NOT run the RPO offense.
OSU 52 Penn State 24 Dotson gets loose for one long ball early to keep it close for a quarter. Then Ohio States even offensive attack keeps Penn State unbalanced and Ohio State doesn't take the foot off the gas.
OK listened. We just have too many injuries. There is no way we lose against Illinois with a healthy team. However, it is fair to say we lack depth, and will for many years. As far as the projection..mine is already listed. I don’t know how either Daniel or Josh think Penn State can get above 9 points. We have an offense predicated on Clifford and he is not right. That is all of the analysis needed.
I'ma BAMA fan, and all about the SEC but I'm impressed with the strength of the big 10 top to bottom, it's about to get to the nitty gritty in the big 10, I'm looking forward to these upcoming Big 10 matchups, in my opinion OSU is the King of the Big 10 until someone knocks them off, Michigan or MSU might just do that, I still think the best two teams in the country is BAMA and Georgia, The big 10 and the SEC probably has 4-5 teams that would beat jokelahoma
Y’all barely skated by Tennessee
I feel like OSU is the king even if they get beat by a Michigan team this year. The Michigan teams combined have like 2 national titles since the 1940s after the war. OSU has 8 titles since 1942
as a penn state fan, i’m actually really excited about this game. my expectations for this team couldn’t be lower than they are, so I’m hoping maybe i’ll be pleasantly surprised.
That’s doubtful though, so it’ll be nice going into a big game with no crushing expectations lmao
45-14 buckeyes roll. penn state keeps it close for the first quarter, just like indiana. Then the buckeyes overwhelm this tainted penn state team with the explosiveness of the offense to the point where the nittany lions pack up mentally and go home before end of 3rd quarter
If they score over 50 again they'll be the only team to ever have scored consecutively like that in history. Ohio State is chasing history this Saturday. Chris Olave could be the best WR ever to of played at Ohio State, Henderson could be the best freshman, Stroud being the best freshman QB, and there's other records as well. Ohio State is definitely aware of this, but they'll play their game still. Going to be exciting.
@@preezybeatz777 Agreed. I would love to see 50+ again to get that record.
@@preezybeatz777 agreed! love the breakdown 👌🏼
@@hollinsd Same! I think they will, because now the depth is playing. I saw Ryan Days face when the 2nd and 3rd string players were out here. They're hungry for success and I think if utilized the right way this Saturday. The score could run up fast.
@@cthompoucat13 Thanks Chris! I've been studying their defense for the past few weeks. Their defense is getting really good. Matt Barnes is going to be a great head coach one day. He's only 35 years old and he was given a opportunity to change up the defense. He's done an absolute great job at that. He's made some serious changes to the defense. Now we're witnessing lanes being closed, wr routes being closed off, and they're coming for the QBs neck on both sides including the middle. Expect the defense to make a statement this weekend. The offense will always be clicking. Players are also coming back this weekend. I'm excited for the match ups. This weekend is going to be a big game changer. 📈🏈
I disagree with your assertion that Indiana is a quality defense. They give up 5.44 per play or roughly 57th in the country.
Look at their schedule though. They've played Iowa, PSU, Mich St, Ohio State, and Cincy.
@@CollegeFootballNerds They let Iowa score 34.. is that good? They let Cincy score 38... is that good.. They let Western Kentucky score 31.. is that good .. Penn State scored 24 (which is ok i guess).. Michigan state to 20 is good. 54 to OSU? I see an average defense. They may have played decent teams but most of them are offensively challenged.
They were top 20 before playing OSU
@@ProPlayer-gg5uu they were mid thirties. Not top 20.
PSU Pass Defense - but who have they played that have elite passing offenses or even average offenses. Wisky? No. Indiana? No. Illinois? No. Auburn? Doubtful. I predict after next week's game their pass defense stats are much much worse
Ohio State doesn’t play Wisconsin in the regular season, it’s Nebraska
It is unfortunate that this did not happen a couple of days later. The line went from -12.5 to -18.5 so, even with all that PSU-hate :-) jk Daniel would be slightly on the take PSU side. Ofc, you could claim the line moved 6 points *because* of this (UGA/UK flex)
Does the model explicitly or implicitly have a discontinuity? At some point, do the metrics that help decide whether it is 3 or 7 point margin have the same predictive value with, for example, 22 vs 28 point margin? About when does that happen and is this game close?
My hot take was always that PSU was 2021 ISU. A good team the FOTM crowd over-hyped.
When’s the um msu model getting posted?
This game will not be close in my opinion. Penn State has had a rough 2 weeks coming off back to back heartbreaking losses. Their QB is clearly still not healthy and now they have to go play one of the hottest teams in the country. Recipe for blowout.
OSU 42
PSU 17
Penn state fan here. I do not see a path to victory with how the last two games have played out.
Cliff is like at 50% and his backups are so bad they let the man play with (probably) broken ribs.
Our run offense is near non existent and our pass game is entirely dependent on a healthy Clifford, which we do not have.
Osu’s receivers are good, regardless of who they are matching up with. I predict an ugly loss for penn state. OSU will easily cover the spread here
It's really weird that they're not running it with Cain back there and Clifford being really athletic. I think they've got scheme issues on offense.
@@CollegeFootballNerds Idk cause as an Ohio State fan, I respect the heck outta Penn States program and what Franklin has done, however, what I don’t get is why can’t they recruit an offensive line?
They recruit talented receivers, good ESPN 300 RBs, Very talented QBs though not elite but they got a great one coming from 2022 class, they have the skill players to put a good offense but offensive line always lets down the offense and every single matchup with Ohio State, the highlight play is always the D-Line getting a TFL, or an important sack to seal the game, or the dominance in shutting down the run game in 2020 and 2017.
Their defense has talent everywhere as well and I think they are the toughest defense we’ll play unless we get to Indy facing Iowa. Penn State has a good pass defense and respectable run D (well until Illinois on the latter) they can jump short routes for INTs but they been dropping them, if I were Franklin, get the secondary to practice catching INTs cause in Auburn game and Illinois game, they dropped major INTs that could’ve been pick 6s. Then they may have a shot but with hurt Clifford, weak O-Line making run game weak, Penn State don’t have a chance vs Ohio State.
Keep up the great content guys!! I'm going to say OSU 52 Penn St 17. Treveon Henderson for 200+ and 3 TDs
Same score I was thinking 52-17
They only put up 54 in Indiana, so I will say 42-24.
If Penn State scores 17 points, it's because of garbage time at the end of the game.
@@easyenetwork2023 They could have put 200 on Indiana if they wanted to did you watch the game?
Penn St. Is capable of scrumming. They always do. OSU 24 Penn St. 13
OSU just has too many weapons
This game is not gonna be close. Ohio State completely changed after that defensive disaster vs Oregon.
Their secondary is elite, they go stride for stride and had never allowed a deep ball. Probably gonna have to throw prayers to Dotson coming down with ball but Ohio State is not only good at intercepting passes, but also returning them for touchdowns.
Penn State has no O-Line that can hold this Ohio State D-Line ever since Franklin was coaching at Penn State. The Run game will not exist for them, and Sean Clifford last year had the most attempts rushing in first half last year but he’s hurt this year.
Penn State’s defense cannot stop Illinois’s rush attack? Oh boy imagine this dominant O-Line with Treveyon Henderson can do.
The shoe is gonna make Franklin and this Penn State have a miserable time for the next 3 and a half hours there
I was very disturbed by the d-line play early, but the DEs are better , & man do those DTs look like real beasts. The young guys could be monsters in year 3
That D-Line has been unreal lately. Dominant.
The line has moved to 18
Ohio State is a different monster now. Keep in mind the past few games some of their best athletes have been missing games as well. They're scoring over 50+ points a game and we haven't saw that consecutively since 1903. This could perhaps be the best offense we've saw ever.
If Penn State wants to match up and compete they'll have to respect the Buckeyes on both sides. If they show up arrogant they'll get embarrassed. Coach Franklin needs to set a tone early or they'll be dead by the 2nd quarter. Ohio State is starting to play ALL 4 quarters now with their impressive depth.
I don't care what anyone says about their defense. I've watched and studied their defense for the past few games. 35 year old Matt Barnes is calling the shots and he's going to be a target for head coach positions in the near future. That defense is looking scary Pass Rush and very fast after being embarrassed by Oregon. Ohio State's defense isn't giving QBs time to think. They're playing the sides better than before. They're communicating to each other and setting up zone matchups to throw off WR routes. They kept Indiana to like 100+ yards and that didn't take place till the 4th quarter. They're closing the lanes way faster and it's because of their depth. You can't coach against depth and talent.
Penn State once again needs to come in the horseshoe with respect. That's the only way they'll create noise. They don't need to react they need to set a tone. They need to play balanced and conservative. Milk off the clock and execute. Ohio State is like a shark in the water if they see red they will attack and it will be over. Simple as that. Goodluck!
This is one of the best looking OSU offenses ever, but Alabama was a level above last year.
@@easyenetwork2023 Agree. Buckeyes are on their way to that level. They just got to keep it rolling. 💯
Buckeyes will continue to roll. My prediction is Ohio State 45 - Penn State 17.
First off let's go Braves. Let's win the World Series! :) Anyway as a Florida fan I am not really hyped about this weekend having to play UGA. That game may be ugly.😟
Back to the game preview, I think Ohio State will win this game. I just feel Ohio State will have a great day throwing the ball on Penn State. I mean like you guys were saying Auburn had sucess something throwing the ball on Penn State. If Penn State can't stop the pass and Sean Clifford isn't 100% still, this could be a long game for Penn State. The Ohio State passing game will open up the exposive running plays later on. I do have some questions though, with C.J. Stround. Is he better because Ohio State haven't had to play teams like Oregon and Minnesota again. You know teams that have a pluse. I mean Tulsa,Akron,Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana aren't what I call teams with a pluse. I give Ohio State credit they did what they were suppose to do and win by a lot.
So now my take on how Penn State could win the game and pull the upset. Number 1 on my list for pulling the upset is Sean Clifford needs to play a great game and be 100% healthy. Next would be Penn State needs to look at what Oregon did to Ohio State when they played and try to do a similar game plan to that. I feel this Ohio State denfense hasn't been pushed again like they were against Minnesota (rushing total: 203 on Ohio State) and Oregon (rushing total :269 on Ohio State). Penn State may have a good amount of success running the ball on Ohio State. They will need their denfense to come up with stops and some turnovers. Plus this denfense needs to make C.J Stround feel pressure when in the pocket and throw new looks at him,he has never seen. I think Penn State may be a little more battle tested as they have played Wisconsin,Auburn, and Iowa....but not by much.
Overall I think Ohio State wins. Their has to be a lot of things to go right for Penn State to win this game. Best of luck to both of these teams. 😄
Ohio State: 35
Penn State: 24
I actually think you'll enjoy our forthcoming preview.
Stroud passed for nearly 500 yards with an 82.7 QBR against Oregon (for reference, that 82.7 would be the 7th highest rated QB this season), and he has since moved to #1 at a whopping 91.7. He wasn't the reason we lost that game. If you haven't actually watched this team play, I would encourage it. The offense is something beautiful to behold. An interesting stat, OSU had 19 straight TDs going into the second half of the Indiana game when Stroud was leading the offense. 19 STRAIGHT TDS. Indiana is a a decent defense, even potentially a decent team (if they still had Penix) that ran into a buzzsaw of a schedule. Four of their five losses are to teams currently ranked in the top 9. Their fifth loss was to PSU, who was a legit top 10 team before Clifford got injured.
As for the defense, anyone can see things have changed since week 2. I don't care about the competition, just look at the quality of play, the gap soundness, the movement to the ball, the QB pressures. This is not the same defense from week 2. A ton of people getting major time, or even starting, are true freshmen, or RS freshmen. It was always going to take time to grow, develop, and gain experience. Now you are seeing the talent start to round into shape. Some of these teams have scholarship guys, too. Rakim Jarrett is a 5* receiver playing for Maryland. He had 1 catch on us. Fryfogle was the B1G WR of the year in 2020. He had one catch against us.
@@danielmcneese3908 Ok that first paragraph can be true. But C.J is still learning on the go. Even though C.J did do that, it still wasn't enough to win the game. Now yes it wasn't all his fault I understand bad denfenive play...(trust me as a Florida fan I understand.) But I don't take Indiana has a good denfenive team. Plus Indiana wasn't going to push Ohio State like a Oregon and a Minnesota did when it came to offense. But if you think that then Ohio State just tried out Indiana's denfense. I still think Ohio State is going to win. I think Ryan Day is a great play caller, I am just worried about what Penn State can do denfensively to make C.J not feel at ease in the pocket.
Now the denfense, that is where I have to disagree. Those teams you have played aren't good enough and won't push Ohio State when it comes to seeing if there denfense has gotten better. I think saying you don't care about the competion is not putting things in line here. Now if I am wrong about the denfense I will come back and say you were right.
Shocked by how many have the OSU/OSU game being 11 points. I have it at least a 2 TD margin or more.
@@easyenetwork2023 It could be.🤷♂️
The thumbnail says October 23 the game is October 30 just for anybody who gets confused
Fixed. Thanks!
You're the best college analysis show out there. Love the analytics you've created, and they are on point! Big Buckeye fan and you are also very fair to the Big Ten and the Buckeyes in particular.
Thanks for the kind comment!
@@CollegeFootballNerds Where's Michigan vs Michigan State? That will be a much closer game than this one.
If Clifford isn’t a threat to run I have confidence in OSUs defense. I don’t see OSU being held under 35
OSU has beaten Clifford when he could run and had maybe a better team.
Everyone is hating on us lol. Can’t blame them bc Illinois was humiliating. :( Hope I don’t have to turn this one off early.
I know you guys are cautious on OSU because of the way you look at stats but the eye test doesn't lie.
Even if their schedule is subpar this is currently the 2nd best team in the country and CJ Stroud should be the Heisman front runner.
His QB rating in October is 229...for comparison, that's better than Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield.
Ohio state doesn’t play Wisconsin we play Nebraska
Nebraska fans are so nice.
lets also think about how much more inflated Ohio States numbers would be if their first team had played a full second half in the last four games.
Exactly
Penn State will be playing angry. And they have nothing to lose now, which will allow them to play with nasty abandon. This makes PSU dangerous in this one. But I expect the Buckeyes to handle business.
OSU 42
PSU 20
An average defense for OSU is enough to beat anyone not named bama and Georgia with their offense, it might be enough to beat them too, but it remains to be seen
OSU defense is going to continue to get better as the players from the 2020 and 2021 classes get more reps and further entrenched into the rotations. Tyeke Williams is looking like those wrecking balls Bama usually has playing nose tackle. You aren't blocking him once JTT and Sawyer start to really come on. The upside on the OSU defensive front 7 is HIGH. They'll be limited at safety with Proctor's injury, but the emergence of Hickman the past month has made a huge impact.
Ohio State 40-13. Only way to keep Ohio State from scoring is to keep their offense off the field. Minnesota was doing that until Ibrahim went down with the season ending injury.
Ohio State beats Penn State 45-13 - "I dunno I kinda want to wait and see Ohio State versus an even BETTER team"
That won’t end any time soon. But, I’ve seen numerous times other teams play very close games and that game is called great (Oklahoma vs Texas, Michigan vs Nebraska). Ohio State blows out a team and it’s “well………………let’s wait until this and that.”
You mentioned OSU offense versus the defense they've played but how is Penn State defense benefitted from the QBs they've played. I mean just Iowa & Illinois alone probably skew they're passing defensive stats right?
Buckeyes 45 - Nittany Lions 14
Go Braves!
Ohio State 38 Penn St 14. Buckeyes have too much firepower. Idk how you stop Henderson and this run game when you gave up almost 400 yards on the ground to Illinois.
OSU 48 PSU 17. Throw out the first two OSU games, they've fixed things. Penn State will hang in for the 1st quarter.
Score prediction, before watching: 45-3 Ohio State
Interested to see how close I am with your model
45 to 24. Ohio State has some miscues on defense, Penn State gets a couple of good stops but gets worn out by the weapons Ohio State has.
Looking at the passing offenses Penn State has faced....look pretty weak to me. Maybe OSU hasn't faced tough pass defenses the past few weeks...but PSU DEFINITELY hasn't seen an offense like this. NFL players at all positions...many first rounders.
They haven’t seen RBs like that, WRs, or even lineman probably, except for last year.
What watch are you wearing brother?
THEY AIN'T SEEN AN OFFENSE LIKE THEIR GOING TO SEE SATURDAY!!!!! OSU 49--- PENN ST 10 MAYBE 10???
Clifford is creative. But he can only pull so many rabbits out of the hat. 10 wouldn't be a shock.
OSU offensive of line is on another level. Keep sleeping on them if u want😂
People always overlook them . Stupid . Reason My team (UM) having good year. But think JJ needs to start for mich to beat osu. Rn we can’t win high score game vs osu .
41-26 the buckeyes
With a healthy Clifford, PSU could have competed for a little bit. In their current state, Ohio State runs roughshod over PSU. I'm predicting a blowout of epic proportions. 55-10 OSU.
PSU defensive backfield is good.
@@andrewmueller9986 I agree, they are good. PSU has a legit defense. However, this offense is on another level. Combine that with PSU most likely being unable to sustain drives in their current offensive state ,and giving the ball back to OSU, and this is a recipe for disaster.
This OSU offense may be the best offense I’ve ever seen. They don’t have a weakness, every position is a strength fortified by an early round draft pick player.
PSU 10 - 60 Ohio State... Hopefully Ohio State is skipping Red Zone now and just doing Passing TDs from 50 yards out...
I think this is a 51-13 absolute skull dragging by Ohio State. Ohio State is soaring and Penn State feels like it’s sputtering lately.
I'll admit that I've struggled with some of your analyses of Penn State earlier this year, but this is a fantastic video. Fair and honest assessment of a match-up that suddenly has lost much of its pre-season intrigue. As a Penn State fan still processing the disgusting performance/coaching of this past weekend's game, I agree that a 20+ point OSU victory feels fairly certain barring some big-time PSU defensive plays. My hope is they show some actual fight and keep the margin respectable, and get into a final stretch of the schedule where winning 3 of the last 4 isn't out of the question (if we get back to our level of play in the 1st half of the season).
Thanks. Self assessment as a fan is really tough. Nobody is immune from its challenges!
I feel bad for how bad your team 💩 itself against Illinois. They just 💩 the 🛏 and lost a game that they should not have lost. Though OSU could still stumble in the next few weeks as most of the games they play are against the best teams in the conference.
Clifford might die he was wobbly in the Illinois game and Ohio state hits harder than Illinois
They are faster and stronger too, and just better.
@@easyenetwork2023 And they have bad breath.
Love the channel and the hard work you guys put in for us fans. Thanx much! Go Bucks!
Thank you Mr Raisins.
There’s is NO defense in the bigten holding OSU offense under 40 at least not the way it’s clicking rn. 42-17
CFN: Elite offenses can put up 35 points on anyone. (Does this mean Ohio State is not an elite defense?)