David Hunter: 40% Market Meltup Over Next 6 Months, Then 80% Crash
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- Опубликовано: 20 апр 2022
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Few experts I interview generate as much controversy as today’s guest.
He is a contrarian by nature, and so is most comfortable when his forecasts differ extremely from the consensus view.
And despite today’s grim macro outlook of spiking inflation, rising cost of debt, a struggling consumer, inverted yield curves predicting recession - he is doubling down on his forecast that the S&P will leap higher by 40-50% over the coming 3-6 months.
And if that’s not a bold enough prediction for you, he is then calling for the markets to fall soon afterwards by up to 80%, as the biggest financial crisis in US history takes place.
Can the prediction of such massive moves be credible? To find out, we ask the man himself, David Hunter, for all the details on these forecasts.
And David doesn’t disappoint. Agree with it or not, there’s a rationale underlying his conviction.
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Time has run out on David Hunter's melt up call. Sentiment means nothing. This market has been driven by money printing, not sentiment. Now the money printing has come to an end. As Michael Pento has pointed out, we went off a fiscal and monetary cliff at the beginning of 2022. The government stimulus has run out, and the Fed has stopped buying bonds. Without new liquidity flooding the market, there is no way for the market to rise significantly from here.
Europe is a dead man walking. That money could flow to US markets, giving it the liquidity you're looking for.
How you know that we have an imminent meltdown is David predicting a melt-up. He's been wrong since 2017 and investing in the inverse Hunter index will prove more profitable than the inverse Cramer index.
"The market is driven by money printing, not sentiment." HA! The sentiment he's referring to are people like you who have swallowed a narrative about money printing. Thanks for proving his point.
actually, history's on Hunter's side. short term and long term notes invert; equities continue to rise 6 months to year post the inversion, then the shit hits the fan and recession. this is easily charted.
@@samueldrzymala9108 people like us are small fish in this pond. Retail investors do not move the markets in today’s world
Pure guesswork with little foundation.
Seems like the melt up just ended to me. Hard for me to believe that another is coming. We shut the world down and the market went straight up. Seems like that was the melt up.
Exactly… the melt up ALREADY happened
Bubbles can persist for quite some time…
I thought this was going to happen much earlier than now, and chances are this guy speaking is right or close to it
Totally thought the same, I felt like all of 2021 was pure crack up boom…
It never feels like it’s coming. He predicted what happened in 2021 in March 2020 too… only time will tell
Please no more of this clown. He's been saying this "6-month-away melt-up then meltdown" since January 2020. We've had a 300% melt up from his original prediction. Prices would have to drop 95% from his original prediction for things to hold.
He can't just keep rolling over his predictions without acknowledging that his previous ones fell short. Anyone who listened to this joker in 2020 and stayed in cash hoping for a melt up has experienced a close to 70% drop in their purchasing power of assets and a 30% drop in purchasing power of consumables.
Adam, there are way more reputable guests to bring on than this fool. What makes it worse is that he is super smug on Twitter and shouts anyone down who tries to hold him accountable then blocks them so they can't even respond.
He's actually been saying this since Jan 2017!
Anyone looking for specific timing is the fool.
old boomers who can't get it up at it again!
@@bobhutchins293 Sorry, my bad, haha... never heard of this guy until 2020. I guess markets would have to crash 99% to meet his Jan 2017 prediction.
@@tktimber418 Bud, nobody's looking for it, he just keeps giving it. He can maybe stop being wrong?
If he keeps at this, hes going to be the next Harry Dent.
Made me laugh. Thanks!
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
🤣🤣🤣. Freaking funny. One more dent
The clock is ticking so Harry Dent is going to be right sometime next year. a PHD I follow said the market has legs, Weiss said the same thing.
@@eurekalogic This market has a pair of broken legs ... No support to move higher only lower ...big drops ahead.
I'm here for the comment section
I have to take David Hunter with a big grain of salt. I spent some time studying his oil call, and it has been very off. In 2020, he repeatedly targeted $55 as a top, to be followed by the crash to cycle lows at 20 or 10. Then a year later, having missed that, he repeatedly claimed $85 as a new top, with the same projection of a crash from there. He used the drop down to the 60s as his proof of being right. But now he simply asserts that "there is a war" in recent weeks to excuse his big miss on the following runup. I challenged him on this, and then he blocked me. He may get lucky on this meltup, but I don't trust a guy who won't admit his inconvenient errors.
When they block you it is obvious the predictor is guessing.
The difference between David and other macro analysts can be stark. Take Raoul Pal's unfolding thesis, it might not have been 100% accurate but the point was that he had detailed charts and analysis with solid reasoning behind it. There was meat on the bone. With David it seems he just says a bunch of words as to why it should occur without the detail or reasoning that other people have.
David blocks everyone on Twitter. It is very annoying.
As for his calls, I generally agree with David. History shows we should have a blow off top, but it may look like a bear market rally instead... We may never hit his targets This market only has a few months left before things start to look very scary.
In 2020 it did get to around 65 then it went -5 on the futures. Marchish
Ya he blocked me too and I'm not even sure why
@ David - I appreciate your acknowledgment of what could cause your thesis to be invalidated (i.e., bond yields keep rising). That acknowledgment shows great humility. Thank you.
Thanks Adam. I found this interview rather confusing. You were right to push David on "where is the sentiment for the 40% melt up?". On the 2nd try he gave a very long answer which seemed to boil down to 1) Powel Pivot + 2) Disinflation. But then he said the melt up is starting now!!! Well 1&2 above are not happening now .. so the whole thing makes no sense to me.
Hunter has been saying the melt up is happening now or going to happen in the next quarter for almost 2 years. Time is running out on his thesis.
@H C If you follow him on twitter like I do you will notice he plays a deceptive game. He alternates between saying the meltup is underway (when stocks are rising) or the meltup will happen this year (when they are falling). If you call him out on this he bans you from his channel. But I think most people are catching on. How could anyone trade or invest based on this type of advice?
Been listening to his interview for years. Respectfully, he's wrong much more than he is right.
Yeah, I saw him predict this four years ago.
yes, i have been listening to him for a couple of years. You are correct. But I think the jig is up for him. He has said the meltup is under a couple of times this year yet the market drops.
Well his timing was a little off but here we are
@@ThetaBurnVictim Broken clocks are right 2x a day.
@@JP5466 he’s making some even bigger predictions now so the proof will be in the pudding these next 12-18mo.. 6/7k on S&P and then an up to 80% after. Predicting all that to happen in that time period
There's significantly reduced fertilizer to increase food output globally. OPEC+ is not increasing oil or nat. gas output, so what are the factors that drive price/inflation declines? Ukraine will miss half it's wheat crop planting and may not have a Port (Odessa) to ship from. Fed monetary policy is a part of the pie, but it's not the entire factor. We are missing critical dates and cannot make up production. Note the stock market broke in Dec. 2018 at 3% interest rates and the 10 Year Treasury is at 3% now.
I love these interviews and the BEST question that was ask was... is there an indicator you are watching that will signal the meltup will not happen? David was VERY up front in saying "If the 10 year Treasury hits 3.25 - 3.5% he is wrong" I like someone that can admit they "might" be wrong. David thinks more in probabilities than in absolute certainty. The 10 year is 2.9% today. Many if not all of the indicators David has previously spoken about have already been hit, so as stated in the video, I think we will certainly know if this plays out as David thinks by July time frame.
He keeps moving the goal posts. He is mostly wrong. Would not trust him to run money and expect to come out ahead. He meets the definition of a classic WS sociopath.
Thanks Adam & David 👍
Remember that poster on the wall of Mulder's office in the X-files with the flying saucer that reads, "I Want to Believe"? Yeah, that.
David has been wrong so many times over the last few years. Literally he says this same thing over and over and it never happens.
He never offered a very compelling thesis, or support for his ideas. Maybe he is just using The Force.
Can't make trades on his calls. His Forecasts don't happen in the time frame predicted.
Exactly, if you have this comment on his twitter, you will surely be blocked by him. He simply can't accept any criticism at all when folks were saying that he keeps moving his target. No one will blame him if he miss his targets but he should be more open as we are all open to what he said as well.
Yup
@@ARKByte you are Right... See Ya... LOL
David could be wrong sometimes as most of us do, but he could be right because of the facts he is portraying right now. Sometimes we were too hasty and give our comments that reflects our personal status right now forgetting to be grateful to a man who was expert on the matter and could give a warning before the big ball comes. David, ... Thanks a lot.
I wake up every morning and check for new videos thanks bro!
I don’t know, maybe some of the stocks but I don’t believe the indexes will go up 40% or 50% unless there is more inflation
Are you factoring in FOMO panic buying, which is only now beginning to build momentum, for, as he (and so many others) indicated "we've haven't witnessed a scenario like this one in decades". Normality is not in the equation.
First I just want to say that you have a great program on youtube. And I look forward to each new episode of your global macroeconomic serial. There are very exciting guests, who in their respective special areas help to fill the difficult picture with all the important factors that come into play in the financial picture.
I have some comments on the assessment of the interest rate picture, interest rate developments with the risk of devastating inflation and what the Fed will possibly do.
The interest rate differential between inflation and the Fed's interest rate is dealt with in some detail by several. So I do not want to get into that. I think the Fed will attack inflation by raising interest rates until inflation is under control. And here are the arguments for that position.
1. The difference between inflation and 2y yield must go down for investors to buy US trysury bonds in the future
2. The Fed has lost confidence in the market and no one can understand why the Fed has not responded until now, at least 6 months too late. Therefore, they must show action now.
3. The Fed will keep the Dollar as the world currency. If they do not show action, the dollar will weaken and alternatives can quickly come in and take over for the dominance of the dollar.
4. The strength of the dollar is not just a decision for the United States. But 50% of the dollar (think that was the number one operates with) is outside the United States.
5. The Fed is smaller than the rest of the global economy. The market will not accept an interest rate that has a difference at the current level. For this reason, we will see that interest rates will rise on 2, 3, 5.7, 10 and 30 year bonds regardless of the Fed's decisions.
6. The Fed will fight inflation to protect the average American from economic problems. Several have pointed to the danger of civil war-like conditions in the United States. Letting inflation go could be the spark that starts riots across the United States.
7. Large parts of world trade are settled in dollars, if there is high dollar inflation, producers and raw material suppliers must increase their price accordingly to make the same profit. Therefore, we can see that inflation will not return to a more normal level if US inflation does not come under control.
Based on this, I believe that the interest rate will be at least between 6 and 7% at the end of the year.
Sincerly
David has assured us twice in the last 2 months that the meltup has begun.
He's also been woefully incorrect.
Actually, he has been saying this for over 1.5 year. I think people are catching on to his scam though. If you have a prediction of the market you also have to have some indicators that will say your prediction is wrong. So what is someone supposed to do, keep their money in the market as it sinks to new lows?
@Mike Collon LOL no such thing as free money. Just look at the record of the hedge fund owners. These 'financial gurus' have the right to predict but I also have the right to call out their record. David Hunter bans people on his twitter channel when they mention some of his failed past predictions. Good Luck investing/trading on his fantastic meltup before the crash, Or is it 80% crash before the meltup. I am not sure but I do hope u get it right.
Where does the liquidity come from? Is there enough on the sidelines to reach those highs
He understands it's a crazy call but still blocks people who question it. What a guy.
Hi..
@@KimiAlias Thanks for reminding me he was wrong as usual.
@@mbanderson83 i guess the market has rally for the past 6 months, aye?
@KimiAlias This Video was from a year ago when he claimed we'd have an immenent rally of 40% followed by an 80% decline in the S&P. That was all supposed to take place within 6 months.
It's not even CLOSE in any way to what he predicted. Literally not even in the ballpark.
Yes Yes, people been saying this for years, in reality we will not know when it will happen.
I kinda agree with you, but even a broken clock gives the right time twice a day.
When I first heard Mr. Hunter talking about market melt-up last year, I believed him, and market did melt up, sort of. This year, market has clearly gone into bear mode. But David is still hanging on to his expired call. Going forward, the best market can achieve is bear-market rallies that will keep on making lower highs. I have no doubt now that he is wrong. I am only curious when he will admit to it himself.
You don't know that. It all depends on what the Federal Reserve does.
Yeah, we're not going to see a melt up
@@fkrr5 I'll remember you Tom S. If the Fed turns Dovish in 2-3 months the market is going to be straight green for months afterwards.
Edit your sentence. I can’t understand your question.
It’s funny how everyone is just proving his point 😂😂
Gotta love broken clocks that double down.
Great interview. I follow David Hunter in Twitter. Adam asked all the right question I can think of. I disagree with the statement "melt-up starts now" from David. It will start when we will cross the all time high. But I am counting on his melt up theory to minimize loss of my portfolio happened last 3 months. He is the hope for bad market days.
I'd only agree that only a small number of stocks have a chance of melting up like aapl, ko a lot of other stocks (esp the high beta ones) have already melted up and topped last year and are now melting down. Problem with profiting from meltups is people get out too soon and get sucked back in only to lose it all on the way down so I rather just fold now and forget about it.
Hunter says we are starting the final leg of a melt up. According to him we're in a pull back before the final melt up leg.
Great interview!! fascinating ..........love David !
Was waiting for an update from David.
Thanks for this Vid.
Thumbs up from me.
I do agree that yields are close to peaking, and less FED hiking could create short term market euphoria.
Problem is the Fed is appearing more and more hawkish for May and June.
Would be helpful to know when the interview was actually conducted. Thanks
His only comment that rings true: “Anything is possible”.
Great conversation !Thanks
It's fantastic to see how much the channel has grown. Congradulations Adam!
Thanks!!
What I got from your interviews hunt&hunter as similar as their names as similar are their expectations of a last wave up before it comes down within the next 12 month - they got slightly different time frames but those differences are as small as the difference in their name .
Thank you so much, love this chanel
Gregory Mannarino has similar views about the market as David has. In March 2020 Gregory Mannarino was the “ Only” market analyst ( and I follow several ) who not only forecasted the crash but told his viewers a week before the crash “ Quote “ today I closed out of all my positions “ He was right over the target 🎯 I have a lot of respect for David. In the end , I think he will be correct in his forecast. The time frame is the biggest unknown. But as GM always says “ Watch the Debt market “ the 10 year!
Excellent video .... Yes I want him back in July
I think so too, summer time stocks will go up based on technicals and liquidity in the market, pre-recession crash. Market is designed to give the most pain..
Wonderful presentation as usual
Why don't we see a date on this? So many things are old on RUclips. It would help to state the date of each program or discussion.
The only one of these FMS average cash level peaks that were comparable to today was July 2000's peak, when ISM PMI had just rolled over a few months before and on its way into a recession. The other FMS peaks were all at the bottoming of the ISM PMI or on its way back up from a trough, thus the negative sentiment coincided with a trough in cyclical economic trends captured in the ISM PMI, which could then be considered bullish as the economy has troughed AND the investors are extremely bearish. But looking at one of these (meaning stock market sentiment vs economic growth trends) in isolation does not count for a good strategy.
David Hunter is so adamant about his call that it should be a warning sign to all. It's almost like he's never been humbled
Really interested in behavioural economic. Please 🙏🏻 get someone on to discuss this.
I'm going to assume it's going to actually be an 80% up before a 40% down simply because it never ends up being what people think.
I do think that the yield on the 30-year bond is about done moving higher, and should be ready to turn lower within a few weeks.
Sensible perspectives mirrors Fed monetary expansion (higher), then withdrawals (lower)AND, MMRI creators belief 🤔🙏🖖
STUNNING!
Shalom and Amén thank you guys for sure
David is great.
Thanks!
Was this recorded before the 245 point sell off in the S&P that started on the 21st?
Or was it recorded and released on the 21st?
I never miss a Wealthion episode
Great cliffhanger 👍
very interesting tidbits Adam, please have him here a few months on and please keep em coming.. you are on a roll indeed 👍🙏👌
Why is there no date on this interview?
The melt-up will happen after the FED pivots away from the QT/rate increase narrative. QE will reach unprecedented levels and rates will decrease again to zero or even negative. We might see a dip in bond and equity markets before they pivot. Timeline is uncertain, but a poor GDP print for Q2 could be the impetus. The only other option is a financial/monetary reset.
We could receive both scenarios. We need a catalyst however for the reset. The PTB in the West realize they don't have any gold and therefore their paper wealth will evaporate. So that is why the reset, which needs to happen, hasn't happened yet. So the more likely scenarrio, until war is brought upon by the Chinese &/or Russians, is the pivot & negative rates scenario. The reason for this is to try and get the asset bubbles high enough to allow the wealthy to then go out and get the assets that will be used to reprice the currency in a future reset scenario. I don't think the Fed put is as effective as we all want to believe though... but negative rates would allow the government to print and hand it out directly.
Who knows what is going to happen. I am more of the belief though that it all erodes away with a demoralized wimper, as opposed to an implosion with emotional vigor.
agree with you! Fed/government blink late Summer just before mid-term elections happen.
but what will cause the pivot and when is what im trying to figure out.
@@blakealtonen9858 I think he is saying the PIVOT will be a poor or even a negative GDP print by 2nd QTR or strong evidence a recession has set in that cannot be jawboned away by the FED any more.
This seems more likely
Thank you, Adam, for such a great interview. You asked the questions I wanted answers to. Fantastic interview.
Fantastic interview, it’s a shame no one at the FR is listening!
Wealthion 👍👍
where can i find the date of this interview ? thanks so much
It was recorded on 4.20.22
and where will the liquidity come from? QT will be in effect, at least for a while.
Dave's melt up can occur when the Fed pivots.
That is the smartest comment so far.....kudos to you
So very soon before year end
Yes! But first they will fake everyone out by appearing too resolved to "fighting inflation" before they tap-out. Another setup ....
@@Ruth-wu3vf thanks 😊
That would do it.
Do you remember, as a child, making up stories with a friend - imaginations running wild. You do? Can you remember what the stories were about years later? No 🤔. Here is your old friend Dave here, but he never stopped imagining and making the story up. Having heard him, yes, you remember the story so clearly as if it were only last month, last year. That's cos it was haha. Gotta love him. First day of the Melt Up = S&P down 2.77% Do you feel lucky? 🍀🍀🍀
True. The dave meltup has been imminent for 2 years. Haha
I always appreciate hearing someone making an intelligent contrarian case.
Nice to hear a bullish perspective for a change haha. I guess I'm a contrarian too as I agree with him that this bull market is not done yet and ultimate highs will be well over 5000. I'm not sure about his timing though. The adage 'sell in May and go away' may prove true this year as I really don't see any impetus for Fed *not* to follow through on their rate raises and QT starting at next FOMC meeting May 4. I agree with Mr Hunter though that May 4 may well prove to be the high in treasury yields, I've been DCA'ing into SHY and TLT in preparation for that. I will have a mental stop loss of about 5% though on TLT I don't want to get run over if I'm wrong. Plus we really seem to have Fed intent on stopping market rallies right now. Each time stocks try to rip higher one of the Fed swamp creatures emerges to say very hawkish things and cause markets to drop again.
But really what is the catalyst for this run higher? It would have to involve the end of Ukraine invasion, but I just don't see that ending anytime soon as Putin won't budge until sanctions disappear (yeah right), and USA/EU/NATO seem quite happy to keep sending billions of weapons to Ukraine to keep Ukraine in the fight. This will be drawn out and messy with losers all around which keeps oil/ng and agriculture commodities elevated I don't see how oil gets to $80s I really don't.
Mr Hunter predicts 2022 Q2 negative GDP print yet also sees stocks skying high meanwhile? My logic thinks this Summer will be not so fun investment wise except for maybe US Treasuries and commodities. It won't be until Fed blinks in late Summer that stocks will pick themselves up and start making that final run to 5000+. Having said that I'm still long stocks but watching carefully S&P 500 level here. The market keeps drawing down to a very key level around 4385 - 4395. Amazingly that level has held at each close, but if it breaks I'm definitely moving more to cash as we likely got another 8-10%+ drop. Meanwhile I've been doing some trading on the side to buy the dip each time S&P drops back towards 4390 and sell the rip at 4440 - 4500
Watch & Learn
Yes it does “seem crazy to say this”. I would share this interview, except I would lose all credibility. If the market melts up, would not that encourage a larger rate hike in May?
The FED have been happy to do do next to nothing with rates and watch the ballooning DOW forever …. Why would a melt up in stocks result in rate hikes ? Even with record inflation around 8% (double that with old CPI), the pathetic FED increase rates by a “Whopping” …. Wait for it …. 0.25 % !!!!! How is there no one in your country calling these people out ?!?!? remember “it’s only transitory” !!! OMG WTF …. Massive debt implosion at some point which will be the end game
@@paulcramer5671 Okay. I agree with you in sentiment. Yet, if the stock market melts up with continuing inflation, then the Federal Reserve should have more reason to assume higher rates can be tolerated. Yes, 0.25 is absurd. There is a long way to go, in my opinion, in rate hikes if this markets “melt up”. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve is horrible and Powell has made a fortune rolling over debt. If Powell has any credibility, he will raise rates as the market rebounds. We will see
Yup, feds always behind the market
I think the fed is trying to knock the stock market down a little to reverse the wealth effect and tame inflation, but I think it would encourage a larger hike, still a larger hike would still be less than inflation
@@ChrisG-qv3on true but they also risk putting the economy into massive recession. Everything is on a knife edge this cycle 🙈
Mr. Adam is the best.
Thank you!
FWIW - the Tom Demark indicators are also predicting a 30% rally. How about getting Tom on for an interview Adam?
Let me clarify at the beginning that I am a big fan of David Hunter and been following him since long. He has been predicting melt up and subsequent bust since 2018. Word to word, only time frame and target keeps changing. I understand what he said about timing but then why give 3 month, 6 month time frame. I hope he gets it right this year because I certainly don't want to listen to this same stuff in 2023.
Didn't the "mania" in the market take place last February?
Time is running out for this call to occur.
Changes in thoughts and endlessly expanding the timelines, will only go to disapproving it
Is this an older interview? When was it?
Good job Adam. Dave don’t know.
Being that the Ten Yr. note has risen over 3% and continuing and that there were new lows set just this week and Oil has now broken out of its Wedge pattern to the upside, then the chances of a melt up are a longshot if not NULL. It seems more like a late spring/early summer meltdown coming. But hey you never know!
Quarterly results are already showing reduced consumer discretionary spend and inflation impacts on margins. I can’t see his prediction playing out now.The next leg has started.
Great interview, enjoyed it a lot.
And I thought I was a contrarian! Well maybe the melt up will be due to so many companies beating earnings "expectations" because of the inflation not being properly factored into those expectations.
Didn’t David have reasons in his last interview for this melt up that have now changed?
I believe one of the reasons last time was that the Fed would not raise rates, or at least nothing like the 2 possible hikes of 50 basis points each that is expected?
I don’t dismiss FOMO, and lots of Cash on the sidelines just waiting to jump into everything Stock related, but his rationale is/was based on actual good news warranting buying stocks - not just “feelings”
One must also remember that there is far, far more information available in the past few years than ever before, and people are a little more hip to hype (I think) and aren’t going to blindly just throw money at Stocks.
Are they? Are you?
So what is going to cause a melt up?
the target has been shifted by 2 years
so many times it was said that melt up is UNDERWAY.
to be fair he hes always said that a trend could be out by years and the cycle does not have to start or end the way he thinks it will.
always interesting though
He said the same thing six months ago, and six months before that...never happened. Wonk Wonk
So the melt up starts when we believe the fed has changed direction back towards QE and lower rates. At the moment the fed is still saying inflation is more important to tackle than stocks at the same time they think they can manage both. I like the outputs from David as he gives more insight both future and past thinking based against peoples cyci. In uk the economy and consumer spending, gdp etc are all falling meaning the conversations around what needs to now change is coming
Is this David's most recent interview? I just don't understand how or where money will come for a melt up?
I would love to see his portfolio
Seriously! Why have this dude on.
Higher interest rates are key to the melt-up. Rates drop and economic contraction and a melt-up?
It’s the dollar that’s toast not the stock market. The nominal price of stocks may NEVER go down. What good is a 50,000 Dow when the national debt is $75 trillion and gold is $30,000/ ounce?
That is on point… inflate the debt away, average salary is 100k, average car price 80k, average house a cool million. And the debt suddenly is not there.
What about uranium ? It is a commodity but also energy ?
It's an energy commodity along with oil and natgas.
Can we get David Hunter back on the show?
I push myself to always keep an open mind & ear to a wide range of views, especially when I feel they challenge my current assumptions & thinking, and I don't doubt David's credentials, though that being said - I can see WHY David's blow off top thesis may play out (ie. Bull/Bear sentiment at lows etc) but I struggle to see HOW it could play out. Such a big move in the US equity Market from here would require a HUGE amount of risk on investment capital flows into the Market. I can't see where that amount of money will come from, or how it would be deployed in such a risk on move by investors. IMHO, for such a blow off top to play out, it would require MASSIVE Central Bank intervention/support + a HUGE mental break by investors on a level of mass psychosis. It's possible I guess - wouldn't be the first time that has happened...
I always thought the euphoria was 2021, it was nonstop for any 🐻…
It's possible because if you look at the past, every time you look at market crashes in the past there was always a rally before because the big money people want to get out unscathed. It's their script. FOMO plays a big role in this scenario. And options trading, and shorting will play a big role. So watch option contract volume if this starts as he says it will.
Question: If there are many bears 🐻 out there now...and narrative is you should go in...should it work both ways, people being bullish (FOMO) since 2009?
David’s contrarian reasons don't validate a 40% meltup rally. What if it is only 10% to all time highs? This is just the most absurd prediction, based on a gut feeling. However, I do agree with biggest crash coming. Also, he predicted DXY to 85-80 before midyear and we are now 2 months away and over 100. Russia probably to be blamed for poor forecasting 😂
well said, fully agree.
Peter Schiff sees the rapid rise in yields as just getting started. Mr. Hunter sees yields as at the top & falling. Both see gold taking off… I am confused. ???
Adam is a great interviewer and I expect will pin Hunter to => precise calls
Anyone looking for specific timing is the fool.
@@tktimber418 Nobody's looking for specific timing, fool. He's the one making predictions nobody's asking for and is continually wrong.
I find it interesting that the predicted 'melt-up' will, according to Hunter, probably last around 3-4 months or so, and likely less than 6 months, at least as far as I understand the interview. If this understanding is correct or congruent with his call, I wonder if it makes sense to invest if the tax man will be demanding a much bigger cut of gains than if equities are held for longer than six months. How likely is the melt-up to last if it has, indeed, begun 'now'? My bet is that many investors, especially non-professional investors, will not pay very close attention to the investments they made this April/early May, and lose a lot of the hoped-for gains when the market tanks this Fall and Winter. Jus' sayin'.
David's call was much more convincing in his previous appearance on Wealthion. Although Adam did ask David twice to expound on his trigger for the pending melt-up, I now find myself, like many others, much less convinced that his prediction is correct given what has happened in the market and economy over the last few months. If bond yields begin to level off over the intervening months, regardless of what the fed does, perhaps David will be proven right. I look forward to his summer appearance in anticipation of either a victory lap or abandonment of his prediction. Until then, I'll keep a weary eye on the bond market as a tell for David's melt-up.
Melt up still hasn't occured!
He was a contrarian on his calls for a long time but now more folks are saying the same.