Inside Russia's Final Pre-Aid "Victory Day" Push

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  • Опубликовано: 10 июн 2024
  • Check out my book "How Ukraine Survived": amzn.to/47gnlEf. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)
    While the world's attention was in Washington D.C., Russia was making notable gains along Ukraine's eastern front. Will this be the last call, or will Russia turn this into something more? Today's video examines the current situation, plus a fun digression into how a Russian parade has become a significant talking point.
    0:00 What's Happening in Washington vs. the Donbas
    0:59 Russia's Current Offensive
    3:36 A Russian Breakthrough in Donetsk
    7:32 The War's Next Phase
    9:54 The Relevance of Victory Day to the Offensive
    The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
    Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
    By Kremlin.ru:
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Комментарии • 866

  • @Gametheory101
    @Gametheory101  Месяц назад +385

    Note: In the couple of days since I recorded this, Russia has made a bit further progress along the salient and is now threatening the next town in line. It is not a huge development but still something to keep an eye on.

    • @HShango
      @HShango Месяц назад +9

      Yikes 😬

    • @BlutoandCo
      @BlutoandCo Месяц назад +16

      ​@@HShango😂
      0.07%
      In 4 months
      That's 0.07% advance in 4 months

    • @Christs_Apologet
      @Christs_Apologet Месяц назад

      ​​​@@BlutoandCo in April alone Russia advanced 133 million square meters and furthered that in the first few days of May, keep using percentages to dodge reality and the fact that Russia is not fighting against Ukraine but a 50 country aliance and is winning even before they start the summer offensive and theyr Rapid ramp up of Military production.
      All this ignoring Russia is barely using its total army force even now.
      Im not a nationalist for my own country let alone Russia but western delusion is just too imbecile to look at.

    • @thiefsleef6752
      @thiefsleef6752 Месяц назад +11

      By the way it's also not the final push, the Russians are amassing troops near the border of Kharkiv

    • @marcopalazzo9349
      @marcopalazzo9349 Месяц назад +27

      ​@@thiefsleef6752 Atacms are going to love this build up.

  • @Sk0lzky
    @Sk0lzky Месяц назад +283

    >Name a town "Ravine"
    >it's on a hilltop
    Slavdom works in mysterious ways.

    • @fnorgen
      @fnorgen Месяц назад +17

      I know a similar place near me. The name implies it's a valley, yet it's also the highest point of a major local cycle route. In truth it sits on the flattened ridge between two hills.

    • @derblah9006
      @derblah9006 Месяц назад +34

      The best is a town near the front line literally called “New York”.

    • @vandalsavage1
      @vandalsavage1 Месяц назад +2

      Call it swayze

    • @ctcole77
      @ctcole77 Месяц назад

      @@derblah9006 60 billion up your ass

    • @AzureSkyCiel
      @AzureSkyCiel Месяц назад +1

      I mean, is it overlooking a Ravine?

  • @NAFO_MythicPlague
    @NAFO_MythicPlague Месяц назад +469

    William one correction Avdiivka was fighting from 2014 until 2024 not 1 year but 10 years of current non stop conflict.

    • @NeoDMC
      @NeoDMC Месяц назад +71

      A lot of these RUclipsrs who cover Ukraine like to ignore the War in Donbas. At most they will treat it like a civil war, and at worst they'll treat it like just general civil unrest.

    • @FinePrintKR
      @FinePrintKR Месяц назад +33

      not non-stop. there were fewer engagements after the Battle of Avdiivka during the war in Donbass.

    • @BERENCEV
      @BERENCEV Месяц назад +29

      You cannot compare battle at Avdeevka of 2014 or 2017 with It’s *real test* at 2023-2024!!

    • @JM-ym8mm
      @JM-ym8mm Месяц назад +17

      He's saying "Winter Battles" in terms of strategic warplay. Avdiivka may have been hit by artillery as far back as 2014 but the russians only tried to encircle and take it in '23. Prior to that, they didn't enact the "scorched earth" approach on avdiivka.

    • @Arete1
      @Arete1 Месяц назад +12

      It was not fighting for 10 years lmao. The vast majority of that time was the cease-fire and almost no combat going on.

  • @charlesbeaudry3263
    @charlesbeaudry3263 Месяц назад +543

    "Both cities are held by Russia" . What cities? There is nothing left of either!

    • @milan988
      @milan988 Месяц назад +32

      Paris will be like that if Macaroni goes in, SATAN missile gonna make a selfie with the tower

    • @Horny_Fruit_Flies
      @Horny_Fruit_Flies Месяц назад

      @@milan988 That's enough vodka for today, Sasha. Get back on your hay pile

    • @Nihilitty
      @Nihilitty Месяц назад +126

      ​​@@milan988 France isn't Ukraine

    • @milan988
      @milan988 Месяц назад

      @@Nihilitty Why is it sending weapons to Ukraine and making the threat of NUCLEAR WAR a bigger thing ? It will become Ukraine if it escalates and people should wake up, the threat of Macaroni starting ww3 by going in Ukraine because his ego is hurt is real

    • @kompatybilijny9348
      @kompatybilijny9348 Месяц назад +163

      @@milan988 Is this satan missile in the room with us?

  • @Ji66a
    @Ji66a Месяц назад +437

    I feel like your opinion on May 9th lacks one major thing. THE OBSESSION that RUSSIA has with WW2. It’s more of a religion than a holiday of a significant event.

    • @MrJonezy541
      @MrJonezy541 Месяц назад +121

      They lost close to 20 million people during ww2, that has to have a long lasting effect on a nations collective psyche

    • @luanpham0586
      @luanpham0586 Месяц назад +62

      @@MrJonezy541 without the west, russia could have lost ww2 lol

    • @fridrekr7510
      @fridrekr7510 Месяц назад +144

      @@MrJonezy541 No they didn't. The Russian SSR at most lost around 14 million, while the Ukrainian SSR lost around 7 million (a larger percentage due to a lower population). Russia isn't the USSR and it's disgusting how Russia is trying to appropriate the collective suffering, especially considering what happened to the Baltics, Poland, Ukraine etc. under Soviet leadership. Even if you only consider what the Germans did, the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine suffered far more than Russia.

    • @mitchyoung93
      @mitchyoung93 Месяц назад

      @justinaugust4890 The Russian Federation is a real country, unlike the US of A. So they celebrate their victories.
      Heck even the Ukraine is a real country compared to the US, though one heading in the wrong direction. They are actually tearing down generic Red Army monuments when 90 percent of WWII combatants from what is now 'internationally recognized' Ukraine fought in the Red Army rather than for the Nazi adjacent OUN that now supply the heroes of the country's nationalist narrative.

    • @Zz_Mike-Hawk_zZ
      @Zz_Mike-Hawk_zZ Месяц назад +34

      ​@@fridrekr7510and? It's the Ukrainians who stopped the 9th of May celebrations, not the Russians. It's their fault.

  • @jayhill2193
    @jayhill2193 Месяц назад +106

    Just finished reading "How Ukraine survived" (with your voice in my head of course). Very insightful indeed and a thorough overview of what happened until recently, since I didn't follow the war as closely from the beginning as I should have. You have a ways to explain every important event in detail and how they connect to the greater picture, I appreciate that

    • @Gametheory101
      @Gametheory101  Месяц назад +20

      Glad you liked it! Please leave a review on Amazon if you are so inclined. It really helps out.

    • @DrumToTheBassWoop
      @DrumToTheBassWoop Месяц назад +2

      ​@@Gametheory101do you do audio books William? I might get your book through audible.

    • @elkiebeerepoot5829
      @elkiebeerepoot5829 Месяц назад +1

      Aha, I'm reading the older books first (slowly). I've had to refresh my math. So, I should read this book after that, or should it order now, and read it now? Developments could be volatile, I guess.

    • @giovanni-ed7zq
      @giovanni-ed7zq Месяц назад +3

      @@Gametheory101 if you look at the russian break through at ocheretyne, i think the 6km advance and now stall is probably as far as russia will go. reason being when russia took ocheretyne, russia had a choice to north or west.
      russia had a choice of going west which has easier terrain and more readily available roads which is higher value real estate. but ukraine funneled troops on that western side and left the north less guarded. so the russians took the path of least resistance north of ocheretyne for a little bit but realized it was less valued real estate as didnt have roads and they had to go into a valley and then fight up hill behind arkenhelski.
      and likely with ukrainian rationing of artillery shell eased and also arrival of new artillery shells starting, that 6km long bridge head which is only 2km wide at its entire length, which has a high troop concentration, is probably getting pummeled by artillery and drones, making logistical supply very difficult.
      russia is learning you can funnel 3 brigades of about 6-7k soldiers into a narrow bridgehead but as it lengthens being only 2km wide, its gonna be difficult supplying that many troops. also that small an area with high troop concentration, is probably not having a fun time with increased ukrainian artillery shell fire.

  • @barbaros99
    @barbaros99 Месяц назад +45

    "Rant!" - tone remains absolutely constant.

  • @matts8791
    @matts8791 Месяц назад +42

    "Managed Democracy" looool
    Helldivers reference?

    • @hyperion3145
      @hyperion3145 Месяц назад

      Managed democracy has been a term to describe authoritarian regimes that claim to have democratic elections since 1959...

  • @mrglayden1690
    @mrglayden1690 Месяц назад +54

    Hey, just to say, for us here in Guernsey, May 9th is important as it was our Liberation Day from Nazi Germany, the Channel Islands were the only parts of British soil to be occupied by the Nazi's and Hitler poured huge amounts of effort into defending them from possible attack (apparently 10% of all the concrete in the atlantic wall went into the Channel Islands)

    • @jackthorton10
      @jackthorton10 Месяц назад

      Ahh yes, that occupation, terrible business that was

    • @AntiAzovIndividual
      @AntiAzovIndividual Месяц назад +7

      People can’t seem to comprehend other countries celebrate victory day too. But suddenly if Russia is doing it, it’s a bad thing?

    • @BrorealeK
      @BrorealeK Месяц назад +10

      @@AntiAzovIndividual put down the keyboard and touch some grass.

    • @zephyr32
      @zephyr32 Месяц назад +4

      @@AntiAzovIndividualThe USSR wasn’t just Russia. Ukraine celebrates it too. They don’t larp as Soviet soldiers though

    • @philippeovart3654
      @philippeovart3654 Месяц назад

      @@AntiAzovIndividual You are completely out of the point here,vatnik FREE AZOV

  • @xxmobstrxx8535
    @xxmobstrxx8535 Месяц назад +20

    Wasn’t the media telling us that Russia had a lack of man power and no ammunition and tanks left since the start of the war? Now it’s the other way around? Seems like those shovels and washing machines were the true game changers.

    • @frankthetank5708
      @frankthetank5708 Месяц назад +2

      Which media are you referring to actually?

    • @kysfoo2324
      @kysfoo2324 Месяц назад +1

      @@frankthetank5708any media that was dick riding ukraine😂. I don’t support either but it’s already obvious Russia will win. They have more industrial plants, more man power and Ukraine is simply running out of men to sacrifice into the meat grinder

    • @kristsdabolins2642
      @kristsdabolins2642 29 дней назад +3

      They still lack manpower - profesional soldiers - and modern Equipment. Their war economy has finaly kicked in and is at least allowing them to somewhat fix the amunition shortages. About the tanks yes they no longer have any good ones left, they have completely burned through the pre-war tanks they had comisioned, and had burned tnrough numerous stock piles of older variants now the only things left in the combat are whatever Russia can pull out of its remaining stock piles, refurbish some of that equipment and the incrementaly small amounts they actually can produce.

  • @andyreznick
    @andyreznick Месяц назад +145

    "Yar" means "Cliffside" or "Ravine". Source: "Trivia through the Ages" by the Who Cares Foundation.

    • @therealchayd
      @therealchayd Месяц назад +15

      And there was me thinking it was "Yes" as said by a pirate (more specifically a British West Country accent) 😉

    • @andyreznick
      @andyreznick Месяц назад +4

      @@therealchayd Good one!

    • @furinick
      @furinick Месяц назад +4

      Im gonna steal that source

    • @MrJdsenior
      @MrJdsenior Месяц назад +4

      @@therealchayd I like yours better, even if it is obviously wrong, as it is a lot more entertaining. :-)

    • @roystewart4386
      @roystewart4386 Месяц назад

      The famous Yar in Ukraine is the one at Bar-be Yar. The Nazi’s took Jewish population and shot them all. Women, children en small babies in arms. They were all made to undress before being shot. There is a monument erected there. A hideous incident against humanity.

  • @General12th
    @General12th Месяц назад +13

    Hi Dr. Spaniel!
    I always try to take care after watching these videos.

  • @6Shroomie9
    @6Shroomie9 Месяц назад +7

    Random historical fact, the Channel Islands (the only part of the UK to be occupied by Germany) celebrates Liberation day on May 9th as it took the British forces an extra day to get to the islands to liberate them.

  • @angeloeolio-pd1zb
    @angeloeolio-pd1zb 27 дней назад +1

    The May 9th discussion shows the quality of this channel.
    Others still continue that narrative. Will continue watching even if I drop other sources.

  • @kirbyone
    @kirbyone Месяц назад +11

    I dunno why you put "Victory Day" in quotes. Its not like Russia recently changed the name of the holiday for any contemporary reasons

  • @TheParot161
    @TheParot161 Месяц назад +1

    Just want to say thank you for all the work you put into your videos. I look forward to each one.

  • @zahariel_859
    @zahariel_859 Месяц назад +1

    I really hope you are still teaching! This is great stuff

  • @BWEEOOP
    @BWEEOOP Месяц назад +61

    Funny thing about the T-34 that was in the 2023 parade. It probably wasn't even a World War II T-34. I'm guessing that particular T-34 was manufactured after World War II, probably in the 50s, seeing as the T-55, IS-5, and this particular T-34 strangely share the same headlamp design

    • @Chaldon-hl6yk
      @Chaldon-hl6yk Месяц назад +18

      Russia bought a dozen T34s from Laos for historical parades

    • @uncleruckus69420
      @uncleruckus69420 Месяц назад +4

      Or they just threw some “newer” headlights on🤣

    • @alexdemoya2119
      @alexdemoya2119 Месяц назад +1

      It was a T-34-85M, indeed a post war production. Very few operating early war T-34s are left anymore

    • @sonofjack6286
      @sonofjack6286 Месяц назад +1

      ​@Chaldon-hl6yk Which I'm pretty certain were post-war models from Czechoslovakia.

    • @arnonym5430
      @arnonym5430 Месяц назад +1

      T-34 were produced by PL and CZ from 1949-1958 and even better than the russian-produced ones

  • @aclearlight
    @aclearlight Месяц назад

    Awesome work!

  • @jaca2899
    @jaca2899 Месяц назад +8

    13:11 The Julian Calendar's *PRESENCE* of some leap days, not absence. The Julian Calendar has more leap days than the Gregorian Calendar.

    • @julianprice1587
      @julianprice1587 Месяц назад

      That's what I was thinking, I just assumed I was wrong.

    • @arnonym5430
      @arnonym5430 Месяц назад

      Would be fitting us well, as european winter weather only rly starts in Jan and lasts until shortly after easter

  • @DemolitionManDemolishes
    @DemolitionManDemolishes Месяц назад +20

    William, thanks for an interesting video (as always). One note though, the talks about needing a huge win before 9th of May is not fuelled by any need from putin, but rather by eternal russian/soviet desire to have something "big" happen before/on a significant date. It's basically a superstition of a sort.

  • @Venthrac
    @Venthrac Месяц назад

    Really really love your videos, William. You have been a constant companion for me throughout the entire Ukraine war. Thank you for that.

  • @cursedhickoryactual
    @cursedhickoryactual Месяц назад

    ❤ OmG Becky❤ love your reporting ❤

  • @DarknessDShadow
    @DarknessDShadow Месяц назад

    great book plug!

  • @TheKitsuneOnihane
    @TheKitsuneOnihane Месяц назад +3

    Nice to see a cameo from lines on calendars

  • @fallen_8521
    @fallen_8521 Месяц назад +2

    I think people forget that war isnt a video game it is far more complacated then anything people can understand just because a few cities are destroyed/capture means they're gonna lose they dont understand what it means to actully fight in a war.

  • @mathieuledan
    @mathieuledan Месяц назад +4

    Great work! We have every meaninful information in a nutshell, that's great value for viewers.

  • @seanstansbury5585
    @seanstansbury5585 Месяц назад +11

    Thanks

  • @juanmontoya6622
    @juanmontoya6622 Месяц назад +1

    It's like a condiment contest while the underlying meal is the same thing.

  • @FurrySpatula
    @FurrySpatula Месяц назад +38

    Thanks doctor spaniel, keep up the great work

  • @user-Red528Smoke
    @user-Red528Smoke Месяц назад

    Great video

  • @beesod6412
    @beesod6412 Месяц назад +2

    You always drop bangers, thanks William.

  • @UncleJoeLITE
    @UncleJoeLITE Месяц назад +25

    Good morning, double-plus good news today. Thanks from Australia.
    A last minute LoM thought-piece and my book "What Caused..." arrived!

    • @Gametheory101
      @Gametheory101  Месяц назад +5

      Enjoy!

    • @MrJonezy541
      @MrJonezy541 Месяц назад +5

      Plus double plus good, Comrade!

    • @giovanni-ed7zq
      @giovanni-ed7zq Месяц назад +1

      @@Gametheory101 essentially ocheretyne was a bad situation, but ukraine made the best of a bad situation funnelling the russians north rather than let them go west. so the question with the ukrainian army no longer artillery shell starved are the russians gonna funnel the rest of their 3 detachment reserves into an artillery kill zone that is 6km long and 2km wide as ukraine gets more and more artillery shells as well as mortars, javelins, and cluster munitions.
      the question is looking at the high value real estate to west with plentiful roads, why did the russians not push west even though there would have been more resistance as the reserves were moved to western flank. they had the initiative and the troop numbers in that first week, but opted to move to the less guarded northern path which had no roads and end up going up against ukrainian high ground. its all hills behind arkenhelski where the russians are stopped at now.
      and finding themselves in a 6km long and 2km wide artillery kill zone basically now with 2-3 russian brigades in there now.

  • @aenorist2431
    @aenorist2431 Месяц назад +3

    2:32 Correction: Chasiv Yar is west of Bakmut, not east of it. Maybe worth an annotation.

  • @mrj6
    @mrj6 11 дней назад +1

    “The exact answer remains to be seen” is the message in all your videos 😂😂

  • @stefano8936
    @stefano8936 Месяц назад +3

    When I was engineering student 20 years ago, we were studying swarm of AI drones for optimizing the effectiveness of attacks. Beware, very soon drones will be fully autonomous and that's the end for who doesn't produce graphic cards

  • @Sphere723
    @Sphere723 Месяц назад +8

    Russia has only been on the Julian calender since the time of Peter the Great. It was one of his reforms to align with Western Europe. However in a bit of irony, the Gregorian calender was created and adopted not long after, but Peter decided not to switch the Russian calenders a second time.
    So no, Russia hasn't been on the Julian calender for a long time. At least compared how long other nations used it.

    • @user-ef1ry2fp3c
      @user-ef1ry2fp3c Месяц назад

      Чтоб закончить эту войну нужно устроить апокалипсис миру, я поклоник игры фалаут!

  • @Bizzon666
    @Bizzon666 Месяц назад +8

    Most of the "aid" is for the US military industrial complex 😐

  • @aenorist2431
    @aenorist2431 Месяц назад +10

    There is no reasonable debate about the Salient. Its bad.
    It was a point to anchor the second defensive line, the one units south of it were fighting a delaying action to be able to improve.
    Now not only is the delay line being flanked and having to pull back, the defensive line they fought to build is already broken.
    There is not too much else behind, and Ukraine can't risk maneuver warfare because they do not have the air power and reserves to fight that.

    • @giovanni-ed7zq
      @giovanni-ed7zq Месяц назад +2

      in reality you failed to look at the geography and topography. there is high value real estate that is flat with alot of roads for easy mobility in the west direction, and low value real estate with no roads and rolling hills in northern direction of ocheretyne.
      what ukraine did was they reinforced the western flank and left the northern flank less guarded. the russians took the road of least resistance making the salient at ochertyne longer while still remaining about 2km wide along its entire length.
      russia arrived at arkhenhelski north of ocheretyne and basically slowed because ukraine sitting on the high ground dug in.
      so russia finding itself with around 3 brigades of 6-7k soldiers in a 6km long bridgehead that is 2km wide at its entire length while ukraine eased artillery shell rationing and american artillery shells arriving more and more every day.
      in that russian bridge head they will have alot of steel rain coming down on them and more and more as the weeks go by. and with 3 brigades in a 6km long and 2km wide bridge head, its gonna lead to alot of russian casualties.
      ukraine funneled the russians deliberately north making the best of a bad situation and russians have arrive at high ground they have to fight up from lowland valleys. so the question is gonna be is russian gonna do the insane and keep funneling around 3 brigades of reserve they have behind the salient into a narrow artillery killzone.

  • @tylerw6438
    @tylerw6438 Месяц назад +3

    What's wild to me is how the withdrawal of the 47th backfired so bad. I know these guys are more battle tested than any NATO troops but when ever a unit performs a "RIP" 25% of replacement unit comes in, 25% of existing unit withdraws and slowly repeat over 1-2 weeks. That way the new unit has a few days to get acclimated and the existing unit can be more organized and show the new unit points of interest as they phase out.
    No where does an entire unit withdraw then an entire unit fills the gap.... just odd how there was such a massive oversight, and if an officer ordered it you think some senior NCOs would put a stop to it....
    I'm genuinely confused how that happened. I'm wondering if the 47th left in protest over the replacement unit being sloe- not realizing the outcome would be so catastrophic.
    Edit: changed "most" to "all"

    • @uffa00001
      @uffa00001 Месяц назад +1

      I agree. And I find absurd that, if that is what happened, the blame is shifted to the incoming brigade rather than to the brigade which actually abandoned the lines without waiting for the substitution. I have the feeling that the 47th went "on strike" and they are above criticism because they actually have been very effective, they are well-trained, they have NATO weapons etc. They were, in a sense, the "Wagner" of the Ukrainian Army as far as quality is concerned, and they also might have been the "Wagner" of the Ukrainian Army as far as the "revolt" is concerned.

  • @lucchesi87
    @lucchesi87 Месяц назад +5

    Just a quick reminder. If there's ONE thing Russia has proven in the last century of military engagements by being in both sides of the stick is that a superior economy or a technology is NOT a decisive factor.
    Also, Ukraine will not stop Russia militarily until they get a manpower boost. The lines are spread too thin and experienced soldier are being atrittioned beyond their effectiveness. Unless they assemble some reserves, so they can get veterans to the rear in order to effectively train green troops, Ukraine will continue to burn through their forces just like the japanese back in 44-45.

  • @tyelork
    @tyelork Месяц назад

    I have to admit, you're getting really good at those segues at the end of your videos lol

  • @generalkenobi9782
    @generalkenobi9782 Месяц назад +6

    I ALWAYS have the high ground.

    • @Kodakcompactdisc
      @Kodakcompactdisc Месяц назад

      Never fight uphill me boys, never fight up hill.

  • @whtiequillBj
    @whtiequillBj Месяц назад

    9:54, I was sure you were going to say it is time to pick up your book

  • @Jim-yz7qf
    @Jim-yz7qf Месяц назад

    Great video as always. Really appreciate your formatting!

  • @MsJakobsen
    @MsJakobsen Месяц назад

    Thank you so much for changing your voiceovers. You messages here are so important

  • @petarjuric5828
    @petarjuric5828 Месяц назад +5

    Question when speaking about it why say "Oblast" If everything is is in English? Oblast litteraly translates to Region.

    • @matugan
      @matugan Месяц назад

      Region translates to region in Russian (регион).

  • @NAFO_MythicPlague
    @NAFO_MythicPlague Месяц назад +9

    You always do top notch video's thanks for doing your part. One thing to be asked about this war is why were fortifications not built prior or even upto 1 1/2 years of war. A lot of territory could have been saved.

    • @user-fu8dj3fx4f
      @user-fu8dj3fx4f Месяц назад +1

      we built it for 2 years)))but everything was plundered, and there are no fortifications!therefore, the APU has such a panic with the surrender of Ocheretin.

    • @user-fu8dj3fx4f
      @user-fu8dj3fx4f Месяц назад

      Ukrainians themselves do not understand.billions were allocated!but there are NO fortifications!

    • @MrJdsenior
      @MrJdsenior Месяц назад +5

      Not always, a couple of them a while ago were junk, but other than those two outliers, I fully agree. I always learn things here, and I spend wayyyy to much time looking at this conflict, so I have a lot of sources.
      As to your question, it's not just that, but interviews taken the day before the invasion, when the Ukrainians had first hand knowledge (Western sources showing HUMONGOUS buildups of Russian troops and equipment at multiple locations on Ukraine's border, their answers to the question, "Will Russia invade" were almost exclusively no. Even Starsky, whose mission it was to monitor Russian propaganda, etc. looking for that very thing, admitted (quite honestly and with an amazingly voluntary forthcoming nature) that up until three days prior, he agreed with that sentiment. They were flat out flat on their asses.
      While Zelenskyy has done a marvelous job of procuring help, more than almost anyone in history, Churchill comes to mind as another, if the Ukrainian military had done what he wanted them to, which was moving everything East, to Donbass, Kyiv would have almost certainly fallen. In terms of the head honcho, Zelenskyy being ended, it came within meters, as it was...not the general attack from without, but a targeted infiltration, probably already in place in Kyiv long before the invasion. The reason that did''t happen was Zalushny, plain and simple, who ignored that order.
      The other problem is that there WERE Russian sympathizers in power in places like Kherson, the city especially, where the Russians more just walked in than took it militarily, almost without resistance. The Ukrainians are far from blameless in what happened, not in terms of causing it, but in terms of lack of vigiliance, and filling their own haeds with a rose colored glasses view of the Russians. How that could happen, 30 years after they were under the Russian boot, and for 70 years before that, beginning with 4-7 million Ukrainians being starved to death the last go round, is beyond me. People say the Ukrainians won't forget this in two hundred years. I suspect if they win this, with far fewer losses than 100 years back, they very much will. Hopefully they will be under the NATO umbrella after this conflict ends, though, as that would preclude a repeat.
      The West bears a LOT of blame, too. And one country, Georgia, who we let the Russians overrun, along with a couple of others, and Crimea, without so much as barely a whimper, is now fighting to end a bill that would let it\s govt start the slide back into Russia's pocket, should be now supported/ But are we? I don't know, but I sincerely hope that behind the scenes, we are, because they deserve it. It just moved into a phase of water cannons and rubber bullets, which have injured several, to the degree of taking out an eye in at least one case, it appeared. I imagine those bullets will get harder soon, and peaceful protesters will start dying, unfortunately. There are tens of thousands, it appears, out to protest this bill, and this is in a country of just a few million, a very small nation. They've got guts and a righteous cause....kind of like the Ukrainians in the Maidan Revolution, in fact, it looks very much like that, participation wise, and may become that, a move to remove those in power, to move in a more Westery direction.

    • @fridrekr7510
      @fridrekr7510 Месяц назад

      @@MrJdsenior It wasn't just the Ukrainians, several Western analysts didn't expect the invasion either. If Putin wanted to give a credible threat back in 2022, he needed to prepare everything as if he was going to invade, since he must have known that U.S. intelligence would've been able to tell Ukraine that he was bluffing. Funnily enough, those same analysts claimed he wouldn't invade, since it would cause all sorts of problems for the Russians, and guess what, it did! They just didn't think Putin would be foolish enough to try, or maybe he truly doesn't care about their demographics and economic and just wanted a last charge before he dies of old age or to a coup. The public focus changes all the time, if Ukraine had started digging defences a year ago, it might have be seen as a sign of defeatism or a waste of resources that could've gone towards the counter-offensive, it only seems obvious in hindsight. Likewise, one could ask why every country doesn't have a few kms of fortifications dug along all their borders, but it only seems obvious when you need them fast. I think there's a tendency take extremist views on the Ukrainian position. A bit more than two years ago, almost everyone expected them to fold in a few days or weeks, and was merely preparing to supply an armed insurgency to help the cause. The initial overwhelming Ukrainian success has led people to believe they are invincible, and that everything that isn't a catastrophic success is a Ukrainian defeat. We can argue about every little detail of how they might have optimised their current situation a bit by doing something different in the past, but overall, they survived the onslaught with relatively minor territorial losses. Regarding Georgia, it's very strange how they're leaning towards Russia considering 2008, but even Zelensky was viewed as somewhat pro-Russian within Ukraine prior to 2022, which also just underlines how absolutely idiotic the Russian invasion was since it has galvanised all the previously indifferent people against them.

  • @dessmith7658
    @dessmith7658 Месяц назад +7

    Your junk bonds will not save you

  • @uffa00001
    @uffa00001 Месяц назад +1

    13:10 The Julian calendar has *more* leap years than the Gregorian one, not less.

  • @justinpaul3110
    @justinpaul3110 Месяц назад +2

    Thats the most civilized rant I've heard in a while.

  • @jonathonreed2417
    @jonathonreed2417 Месяц назад +43

    Again seems reductive to not consider that while Ukraine has a manpower shortage that metal cannot solve, Russia may have a metal problem manpower cannot solve. Artillery tubes can take between 1,000 and 1,500 rounds before the need to replace them before they blow up. So in a battle field where your opponent has a counter battery advantage (Ukraine definitely does, just short on ammo at the moment), every round you put down range is a form of attrition and precision is not exactly Russian artillery's forte. Cliff notes version really is that some time in 2025 they can in fact run out of artillery pieces given stockpile drawdown, defense production, battlefield loses, and wear and tear best estimates. That's without considering the idea that you wouldn't draw down your worst equipment first, so the stockpile is getting worse in quality over time. But it also omits whether or not Ukraine can keep up the attrition.
    The biggest question right now really is how good are Ukrainian defensive lines around Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, etc.? Otherwise this war going forward is about air defense capability, artillery, loitering munitions, and manpower/willpower.

    • @jonathonreed2417
      @jonathonreed2417 Месяц назад +15

      @@Princip666 me: makes specific mention of lack of precision, dwindling stockpiles, limited production, counter battery, etc.
      you: Russia bigger number gun
      jokes aside if Russia had a 5:1 artillery advantage why are their movement and maneuvers so limited galaxy brain?

    • @viktorgr1222
      @viktorgr1222 Месяц назад +5

      Brother , Russian equipment is made to endure , not for a quick fight . As Ukrainians themselves say that western equipment in real world fight break down easily . Russia has a huge industrial capability and in fact is able to produce most stuff it needs . Moreover the real number of artillery advantage is 10:1 and the sources confirming this are both coming from Ukraine and from USA . Russia has all the materials it needs to create the equipment it needs .

    • @jonathonreed2417
      @jonathonreed2417 Месяц назад

      @@viktorgr1222 brother, really it's 50:1 don't you know? if Russia has all the materials it needs, alll the equipment it needs, the west has inferior equipment, more manpower, blah blah blah why is it struggling to take over a quarter of Ukraine let alone the whole country? stop smoking copium
      all this doesn't mean the US/EU won't rug pull Ukraine in the end I think they will but what are these dumb ass arguments?

    • @Bob-nd2mr
      @Bob-nd2mr Месяц назад

      @@viktorgr1222 the idea that russia is a limitless resource discounts the advantage technology has over mass. The russians are stalled in eastern ukraine but the line of contact runs from ukraine to norway and the containment of Russian aggression in the Donbas is an exceptable level of violence which the Allies are happy to maintain. Putin has miscalculated ...his "perpetual war"..will not save him .. grasping at straws

    • @jonathonreed2417
      @jonathonreed2417 Месяц назад

      @@Princip666 yeah uh the 5:1 advantage and "lack of precision is conjecture" is fucking stupid if I had a 5:1 advantage in fires and no gap in precision there wouldn't be any fortifications left in at least part of the line after a year plus of entrenched warfare dumbass. It isn't a 5d chess move to reduce losses and if it was the lack of progress would not be a worthwhile strategic decision. Seriously, make up some believable propaganda.

  • @testboga5991
    @testboga5991 Месяц назад

    I think you might want to consider may 9 as a random but existing deadline to put pressure on commanders and soldiers to achieve set goals.

  • @shrekboizswamp4205
    @shrekboizswamp4205 Месяц назад

    Can you cover the up and coming Russian offensive in Kharkiv?

  • @drewwolcott8268
    @drewwolcott8268 Месяц назад

    13:37 lol I’m glad that you are happy

  • @JerronHonda
    @JerronHonda Месяц назад

    Nice channel nice video !

  • @ZMB-on5ub
    @ZMB-on5ub Месяц назад

    I love this channel. Constructive criticism: Can you put a high pass filter on your audio? There is low frequency rumbling that comes in and out. It almost sounds like a grounding hum issue. Do you touch the mic with your mouth at all? Either way you can just put an HPF filter on the audio and save the patch as a setting and apply it to all videos and you never have this issue AND dont have to change your methods/syyle/process. The reverb is great and consistent so I can tell it's all done in the same room. You are close but not knsanely close to the mic.

  • @quandangle9397
    @quandangle9397 Месяц назад +64

    In other news, I am infertile from eating scented candles

    • @iwillbuycocainefromyou
      @iwillbuycocainefromyou Месяц назад

      bees make honey

    • @westbdeon
      @westbdeon Месяц назад +20

      Damn, what brand where you eating?

    • @SymSne
      @SymSne Месяц назад +9

      Darwin award worthy

    • @EinFelsbrocken
      @EinFelsbrocken Месяц назад

      Ive been eating purified wax; and my sperm count is 7 trillion 😎
      My balls hurt

    • @Dralchemy
      @Dralchemy Месяц назад +2

      oh no

  • @JoeSmith-sl9bq
    @JoeSmith-sl9bq Месяц назад +8

    All the billions and endless list of game changing weapons did not stop the shovel men yet

    • @frankthetank5708
      @frankthetank5708 Месяц назад +1

      All the millions have stopped their idols in WW2 only after 6 hard years.

  • @Dr_Grape
    @Dr_Grape Месяц назад +1

    Obi-Wan always has the high ground

  • @4000inbound
    @4000inbound Месяц назад +29

    I see what you did there with your Managed Democracy reference. From one Liber-Tea drinker to another 😉🍻

  • @sleepybokchoy
    @sleepybokchoy Месяц назад +29

    again, I’m a simple man, more lines on maps = more upvotes from me

    • @stationd5
      @stationd5 Месяц назад

      He wont ever put an actual battlefield map up bc that goes against is Western propaganda.

  • @BERENCEV
    @BERENCEV Месяц назад

    Grande stuff! Brilliant analysis and summarising, William!

  • @alive1691
    @alive1691 Месяц назад

    Am I the only one who sees Loki on that sign? 12:43

  • @MrJunk0
    @MrJunk0 Месяц назад

    Then you should have mentioned inauguration date of May 7 for pitun

  • @liberatesweden2404
    @liberatesweden2404 Месяц назад

    Woo new video! 🎉❤

  • @Sewblon
    @Sewblon Месяц назад

    13:59 That shows "PM" But he says "AM."

  • @holthuizenoemoet591
    @holthuizenoemoet591 Месяц назад +1

    shooting a artillery piece without hearing protection O_0

  • @MDCDiGiPiCs
    @MDCDiGiPiCs Месяц назад

    @William, any thought's on the French putting troops in UA?

    • @Gametheory101
      @Gametheory101  Месяц назад +1

      I did a whole video on that about a month ago!

    • @MDCDiGiPiCs
      @MDCDiGiPiCs 29 дней назад

      @@Gametheory101 thanks I'll look it up.

  • @mahpell7173
    @mahpell7173 26 дней назад

    "This is one of the many joys of Managed Democracy."
    I see what you did there.

  • @williamwells1862
    @williamwells1862 Месяц назад +1

    When 50% of the oil refinieries are wasted, the war is over in weeks.

  • @quantumcomata105
    @quantumcomata105 Месяц назад

    William spaniel is very smart

  • @user-sr4pt7tk8c
    @user-sr4pt7tk8c Месяц назад +1

    Play it safe good luck insha'Allah you we'll see lighi

  • @codingfrogguy2697
    @codingfrogguy2697 Месяц назад +18

    Babe come on, lines on maps just dropped

  • @Fenrisson
    @Fenrisson Месяц назад

    Everytime I hear "Chasiv Yar" I think of pirates.

  • @InquisitorXarius
    @InquisitorXarius Месяц назад

    Sounds a lot like the Kaisersclock offensive that failed

  • @user-tc9sk4ei9y
    @user-tc9sk4ei9y Месяц назад +15

    For reasons 61 billion $ package is perceived as something significant. It's not even like 61$ billion of weapons and ammo, it includes the money US will spend on it's own ammo stockpiles, money for Ukraine's Government (yes, basicallu Ukraine's governmen wages are paid with US money), ect.

    • @Bartekkru100
      @Bartekkru100 Месяц назад +6

      Literally most of the aid is going to US MIC, not to Ukraine, but keep making shit up.

    • @user-tc9sk4ei9y
      @user-tc9sk4ei9y Месяц назад +3

      @@Bartekkru100 "about $8bn in non-military assistance, such as helping Ukraine’s government continue basic operations, including the payment of salaries and pensions"(c) the Guardian. So yes, most of the sum isn't going to Ukraine's government directly, only about 13%, but no, I don't make shit up. Maybe the Guardian do, idk

    • @nichl474
      @nichl474 Месяц назад +2

      Well, more money to the Ukrainian civil government still means more money to the military. If Ukraine doesn't have to cover miscellaneous expenses, they get a surplus that they can put back into the military, albeit to a lesser degree than straight up paying for the military

    • @Bartekkru100
      @Bartekkru100 Месяц назад +1

      @@user-tc9sk4ei9y
      The tone of your original comment suggested that the aid is meant as a handout to politicians and a waste of US taxpayers' money which it isn't.

    • @garymacek4904
      @garymacek4904 29 дней назад

      @@Bartekkru100, wow ! Master class cope. 😂

  • @zaynkhan9147
    @zaynkhan9147 Месяц назад +1

    It would be funny if victory day was a few days earlier on may the 4th

  • @hugoballroom5510
    @hugoballroom5510 Месяц назад

    One aspect of re-occupying is the civilians, whether still there or want to reclaim their land, who will help.

  • @matts8791
    @matts8791 Месяц назад

    When describing brigade-size units, use the emblems of the actual brigades themselves instead of a generic national emblem.

  • @dacoolist
    @dacoolist Месяц назад +2

    Love your b-roll jokes William!

  • @MotiejusImpolevicius
    @MotiejusImpolevicius Месяц назад +1

    61b only means 13b most of the allocated funds stays in us. And as of 5th of May nothing from that bill came yet. Atacms are weeks old. US is so untrustworthy these days.

  • @Cornetto616
    @Cornetto616 Месяц назад +5

    Managed democracy, for super earth! 14:53

  • @ghastgateway101
    @ghastgateway101 Месяц назад +3

    Try to explain the Western game changers shown in display by Moscow streets.

  • @N4TH3N96
    @N4TH3N96 Месяц назад

    Very similar to the 1918 spring offensive

  • @v417227
    @v417227 Месяц назад

    Lines on calendars

  • @PeanutsDadForever
    @PeanutsDadForever Месяц назад

    Thanks for your great videos. 🇦🇺👴🏻

  • @darkestcloister
    @darkestcloister Месяц назад

    War must be the least effective way to accomplish anything? Like, how the East India Company transform from a trading company into a ruling India?

  • @casbot71
    @casbot71 Месяц назад +1

    Any estimates on how much the delays in US aid cost Ukraine in terms of manpower/casualties and territory?
    And saved Russia in terms of its casualties?
    Just what were the tangible effects of the Congressional six months deadlock?

  • @jammbamm4024
    @jammbamm4024 Месяц назад +2

    this year victory parade will lead t-26?

    • @inisipisTV
      @inisipisTV Месяц назад +1

      A Leopard 2. 😂

    • @A-A_P
      @A-A_P Месяц назад

      Well, getting that intact is not sure, besides it would perhaps be effective as scrap, but not as a leader as that hints even the military cannot go without western tech, ironically

  • @threepoint14159265
    @threepoint14159265 Месяц назад

    11:03 Dr. Spaniel: Do you like 80 year old T-34 tanks?
    LazerPig: *furious screaming*

  • @saltyinternetguy626
    @saltyinternetguy626 Месяц назад +1

    Anyone else wonder if this America's 'Soviet Union in Afghanistan'. Although the US do not have troops deployed in Ukraine, politically it could be the same result in the end if Russia prevails.

  • @mickelodiansurname9578
    @mickelodiansurname9578 Месяц назад

    your segways to your books are getting better....

  • @redouanecherrak9490
    @redouanecherrak9490 Месяц назад +8

    this situation is like germany finale push in ww1 before american soldiers

    • @EinFelsbrocken
      @EinFelsbrocken Месяц назад +16

      We're still so far away from that sadly.. this war will go on for another year at least before either russia or ukraine break..
      Sadly, if the collective west doesnt kick up some more active support; this aint gonna end well. The 61b package will only help stabilizing the front up until sept/oct.

    • @Mortarion-xt9wp
      @Mortarion-xt9wp Месяц назад +7

      ​@@EinFelsbrockenGrüße!
      Yes, we do need to keep supporting the sovereignty of Ukraine. The governments must know our engagement and support.

    • @Knight_Kin
      @Knight_Kin Месяц назад

      It's nothing like that at all.

    • @arnonym5430
      @arnonym5430 Месяц назад

      Not really like in 1918

  • @chisank
    @chisank Месяц назад +1

    That’s a spaniel right there!!

  • @C0ffeeF1ower
    @C0ffeeF1ower Месяц назад

    14:00, it was 01:01 am in Moscow*

  • @letoatreides5165
    @letoatreides5165 Месяц назад +1

    How much aid has Ukraine received this far, as in cumulative before this aid package? Less than 61b no?

  • @SCH292
    @SCH292 Месяц назад +13

    Guys! I think I have an idea what Poot tin might show off this year at the next parade.
    Last year they showed off a single T34 right? A few days ago all those Russian simp YT channel has been bragging about some of the destroyed equipment we gave to Ukraine so I bet they will drag out these equipment for the upcoming parade. Lol

    • @therealchayd
      @therealchayd Месяц назад +4

      Presumably it'll be guys on motorbikes with shovels (or maybe tractors.)

    • @user-fu8dj3fx4f
      @user-fu8dj3fx4f Месяц назад

      the fact that the Americans ordered their Abrams to be removed from the front line!)))so that the evil Russians don't take them away from the Ukrainians)))

    • @brankosavic632
      @brankosavic632 Месяц назад

      Samo se smijte putin unistava vase oruzje polako a onda dodje zapad na red

    • @fridrekr7510
      @fridrekr7510 Месяц назад

      I thought about destroyed Western equipment too (since they already made some pathetic propaganda following the counter-offensive) but it would look a little strange to drag around destroyed enemy equipment during a parade.

  • @DougWedel-wj2jl
    @DougWedel-wj2jl Месяц назад +1

    The only countries who parade their weapons are ones who want to use it, not for defensive reason, to intimidate both their neighbour countries and their own people.

    • @A-A_P
      @A-A_P Месяц назад

      Well, it depends. Many countries hold military parades that hardly ever have fought or attacked first, on the contrary, the US is not much for parading but has been one of the more active users of military force. Parades are a way to make people think of power but do not tell anything about the actual capability or political will

  • @user-fi3me9ru3u
    @user-fi3me9ru3u Месяц назад

    Please bring back "YODA"!