Russia's Remaining Self Propelled Artillery in Storage, and what it means
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- Опубликовано: 11 сен 2024
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Can I just say that the music you use - the unsettling violin/cello thing - it makes it uncomfortable to watch. I used to subscribe, I don't anymore.
Random insertion comment here, I actually just did some quick maths and I found information you might like to hear. I compared the numbers from your Febuary video to this video out of curiosity and something looked 'off' about these numbers. So I compared the rate of loss over time for the first video and the rate of loss over time for this video. Granted this is kindof over looking a bunch of smaller factors when looking at raw numbers so take this information with a grain of salt.
But I found this, the rate of decline in terms of withdrawing vehicles in not staying consistent... it's speeding up. Not by much, its barely noticable, but it is speeding up. They were withdrawing self-propelled artillery at a faster rate over the last 6 months then the previous 2 years. Thoughts?
If you look at the before and after images, you can see that the vehicles are not being pulled from storage uniformly. Rather than being pulled line by line, they're pulled from all over the depot. It's a good clue that a lot of the equipment is not in good condition, so they're combing through and pulling the ones out that are in the 'best' condition.
indeed, and not bothering to hide that fact by moving scrap around with tow vehicles. When they should know NATO has better resolution and on ground intelligence
@@marhanen Why will they need to hide it? Is common sense that you pull the ones that need less work and keep the worst to the last. What they need to hide is the capability of how many they repair or produce at the moment, and for the info that is out there, nobody knows that with certainty
@@marhanen Pvt Conscriptovich doesn't give a shit lol the rot has long since set in
@@teblack2 they know the storage yards are being watched and that effects the observer governments calculations for how much this war might cost to support and many intelligence agencies already have some range of accurate data if not the current data on what is being produced however it is already to late to hide the numbers
@@teblack2 It may well be that nobody outside of Russia knows exactly how fast Russia can restore the old units, but that doesn't mean there's no information available. For example, the times when the volume of Russia's artillery fire fell, it meant they had been firing more than they could support, either due to ammunition availability, or the4 availability of guns that were in good enough shape to fire that ammunition.
It's also a good point that picking out the good ones means that the quality of available units is widely variable. If they'd all been maintained fairly well, or at least protected from the elements acceptably well, they could just pull them in order because they'd all be in fairly similar shape. As it stands, after the war's gone on this long, any unit still remaining in storage is probably in pretty bad shape.
This is a self propelled comment
This is a Surface to Air reply
As you can see here; the stockpile of witty replies are diminishing.
This could quickly become a joint standoff.
Are you telling us you are blowing your own horn?
Say Hi to Mars for me.
Also note artillery barrels typically ware out faster due to continuous fire so a lot of those left may have had theirs removed to replace another unit
Russia produces thousands of artillery barrels every year. Producing barrels is much less time and resource consuming than overhauling vehicles.
@@azeke8 russia does not produce thousands of atillery barrels a year, that belongs to the same nonsense of russia producing 1000 new tanks a year, they refurbishing old soviet junk
Making barrel replacement is the easiest thing to manufacture . You have a single cylindrical piece with a hole i it
@@JL-tm3rca barrel is much, much more complex than that to manufacture. It is made of several « tubes »(a core and a jacket ) of special pressed steel that are mated together with cold and heat, bored out, treated.
We don’t know how many Russia can build, but it cannot be made through any basic workshop.
Not true at all. Barrels take a lot oh high strength steel and forges.
Man those soviet stockpiles were insane
Emphasis on "were"
Yeah, but modern Russian Federation makes very little, the 'soviet' weapons were made in 'soviet Bloc' countries that are not part of RF, like Czech Republic, Ukraine, Hungary, Lithuania etc etc... RF suffers from what economists call 'Dutch Disease', where manufacturing was replaced by selling natural resources like oil, gas, coal, fertiliser and metal ores etc.
@@chrissmith2114 my great uncle once said "the sovjet union ran on engineers and farmers, but the russian federation runs on farmers and miners"
So you can see why the Western war planners of the 1970s & 1980s deployed tactical nuclear weapons like Pershing II in Europe. The Soviet Union had so many tanks they coud have rolled over West Germany in days.
@@chrissmith2114 if you fact check that, Russia is ranked 8th in industrial output internationally. So no, Russia is absolutely still manufacturing things.
just FYI, @Covert Cabal, idk if you know it, but I now regularly see your work being cited by mainstream media in Europe.
Nice! 💪👍
Well duh, they don't pay him to sit around
I did not see a single citation of this clown channel anywhere ever.
Radio free europe the organisation he is working with is run by the CIA and was established by CIA
Yes I've seen that
@@fal2218 He's not paid to do this LMAO. At best media companies will cite him or request permission to use his material.
You're one of those actually important channels that everyone should follow
primary hopium provider for the doggy sniffing brigade 🤣
sssh little russian bot,it will be all over soon.
@@issadraco532 If russians had any self awareness, you and your comrades would be really embarrassed by how stupid you continually sound. Oh, and getting invaded by Ukraine LOL
Russians running out of tanks and then this?
Can’t imagine how much time and money this and the tank video took, thanks for putting in the effort
They are getting paid by Radio "FreeEurope"(a CIA front) so no need to worry about that.
he is working with Radio free europe. Organisation established and run by the CIA. Think about what you donating to.
2:46 Love the "Angry Raccoons" tag on the bore evacuator (:
Spreadsheets and satellite images. Lets Go!
Please start a series on North Korea. Tunnel entrances, airfields, tank depots…you could do so many interesting videos. China also.
I've already spent maybe 20 hours looking at North Korea recently... searching through Google Maps and declassified CIA documents for any hints on where North Korea hides their tanks/artillery/etc. So far, it's all been in vain, no luck. The mountainous terrain seems to have given them the ability to tunnel in and hide them, as you mentioned.
Same with Iran to an extent. I've found a few sites, but it's a tough country to observe from satellite imagery.
I've got an idea in my head to discuss ex-Soviet armored storage sites. I found a CIA document stating the 12 sites the Soviets had. 2 in Belarus (one is now just condos/apartments), 1 in Kazakhstan, 1 in Ukraine (in Bakhmut), and the rest in Russia. But I want to look and see what previous Soviet states might be able to provide Russia if it came to that.
The 2 sites are:
Belarus - 52°55`57 N, 27°54`49 E
Kazakhstan - 43°33`33 N, 75°11`45 E
If you're interested, there's some good imagery on Google of them
@@CovertCabalnorth Korea had the experience of being bombed to rubble in the 1950s Korean war, since then their doctrine is emphasizing concealment and tunneling to make their artillery survivable to an extent they also expected this technique to Iran and it's proxies
Hezbollah has posted a video in Telegram showing the extensive tunnel networks in what they call "Imaad 4 " trucks with missiles drive through those. The concept is to have the equipment safe and concealed even after firing from a position
@@jordandavis84 First I thought you encourage him to tunnel entrances into North Korea to find out😁 (jus kidding)
@@CovertCabalI think Kazakhstan doesn't like Russia enough to Supply Russia
Belarus would be interesting
@@CovertCabal Nuclear launch sites, airfields, the giant map of all of the known tunnel entrances would all be super interesting. Think 38 North and all the research they do but in video form.
China would be great also.
One thing I thought of watching this is most of these systems are Soviet era weapons. And were used during the cold war for training and wars. So when they were sent off to these storage yards I have to wonder what condition they arrived. Barrel wear and mechanical wear being the biggest issues. And if Russia even bothered refurbishing these systems in storage. Or could afford to given that after the fall of the USSR Russia wasn't exactly flush with cash at that time or for decades after. Given the condition we have all seen of weapon systems that were stored in Russia from the USSR days. I can imagine today's Russia is finding these systems either needing complete rebuilds or are so badly deteriorated by the weather and such that they are basically parts donators. And then there is the corruption that has been going on at all of these storage bases where people were stealing parts and even stealing wiring for the copper or other materials that could be sold. I have to think the reason more of these systems haven't been sent to the Ukraine front is basically these systems are just scrap or require the greatest amount of work to get them usable. Russia has to be scraping the barrel for easier to refurbish and deploy units by now right? And I would bet allot of what's left has been used for spare parts to keep what's on the front moving. It's cascading effect in this situation. If they can't make the new parts anymore for these older systems. And they don't have good parts stockpiled or have depleted those stocks. Then what's left in storage becomes their only option right? Along with buying back parts from countries they sold these systems to a long time ago of course. But who knows how much those countries still have. Or even if they are still using those systems and can afford to hand over those parts and such. Just because you see dots on satellite images representing a system. That in no way means that piece or pieces of equipment will ever be used or can be used. It's all just a best guess right now. Maybe in a decade or two a documentary will pop up fully explaining what is happening right now lol.
Russian weapons factories are mostly state owned so the machines are still there . Unlike the west which is mostly private owned who sold their machineries as scrap metal to earn a profit. Look at how russia was able to increase artillery production to 3.5 million shells annually and the whole of nato barely produces a million shells a year.
@@JL-tm3rcsince the fall of the USSR, Russian factories struggled to survive, because of a lack of money.
And a large part of it was in Ukraine.
Manufacturing shells is relatively straightforward, but manufacturing gun barrels requires special tooling that may have been scrapped or sold during those times.
@@chefchaudard3580 the weapons factories are still there in storage. Remember as part of the independence of ukraine the most of the weapons factories and all nuclear weapons were moved to russia. Unlike the west who sold most of theirs as scrap metal. Two years into this confluct and they have difficulty increasing production as the machineries and factories have to be built from scratch.
@@chefchaudard3580 russia did not sell or scrap any weapons manufacturing as those are state owned. There are thousands of military equipment that would have to be sold first before touching those factories and machineries. Seeing the thousaands of vehicles parked in the open the russians did not scrap any of their weapons factories. Hahaha
@@JL-tm3rc there are only two factories capable of manufacturing barrels. We don’t know how many barrels there are manufacturing. They need 500 for every 1 million shells, assuming a lifetime of a barrel is 2000 rounds.
On the western side, several companies in Europe, USA, South Korea can manufacture barrels. Nexter has already ramped up production. And Ukraine does not need as much artillery pieces than Russia.
In Feb '24 RUSI, citing Ru MoD reports, reported a prioritization of MLRS production to compensate for shortages of replacement barrels (thru 2025).
This comment was pulled from AU deep storage for this CC video. 🇦🇺
Glad to see you coming out of your shell. You're normally more reserved.
A great compliment to your series on stored equipment - would be one on Storage in the US. Nothing Fancy, but rough numbers of Tanks, APC, IFV and Arty in the US, would show just how much more the US could do. Most people dont know the immense numbers of vehicles we have sitting around. Our National Guard, has more equipment than most Nations in Europe, so this stored equipment really is redundant to an insane degree. We can afford to refurb and ship a thousand or more units to Ukraine with little trouble.
Last time I heard, the US had around 1K Abrams and 2K Bradleys surplus. Since then, 31 Abrams were sent and luckily a larger number of Bradleys, but looking at how much Ukraine managed to do with these numbers, imagine what they could have done with these in September 2022, or what they could do today if the US just saved money on storage, guarding, maintenance and disposal of all these units...
All this storage and you still lost to the Taliban lol
@@deinvater2200 yep I see an idiot
If you look at 30% remaining that are in bad shape or used for parts that’s essentially only about 1500 remain that could possibly be used
1500? so about 1400 more than we've been able to provide the ukrainians in almost three years and probably about a decade worth of western production.
and a few years more than the few months that ukraine has left in them before they're forced to come to the negotiating table now that the entire donbass front is collapsing and now that they're about to head into the winter with a completely destroyed electrical grid that now basically consists of just three nuclear plants providing the 30% that remains of their electrical capacity leaving them with nationwide rolling blackouts that are lasting 22 hours per day during the summer when demand is only half as high, which is going to lead to a massive refugee crisis and cause them to lose probably like half of their 20 something million remaining population over the next few months as people are simply unable to survive while freezing to death in their commie blocks with no heating and no electricity and no running water and no working sewage system and no jobs and no economy.
all of this stuff about "ohhh, russia is running out of blah blah blah, only blah blah years left" is becoming almost comical. we've heard the whole "silly incompetent russians are running out of tanks and missiles and shovels, watch out, russian collapse imminent" nonsense a million times already from the clueless times radio mainstream media television talking head generals like ben hodges and the john boltons and nikki haleys and lindsey grahams and boris johnsons and jake sullivans and blinkens and kirbys and angel of death victoria nulands of the world. and they have been wrong time and time again. the worst people on this planet with the absolute worst track record ever. the people who got us into this mess and terrible position that we find ourselves in with russia growing stronger and being pushed into the arms of china and the rise of the multipolar world order right in front of our eyes.
but don't worry guys, just 1500 more tanks to get through.. just a little bit more time, just a few more small blank checks of 60 billion dollaroos for zelensky.. check your pockets for loose change! this time it's gonna work out, this time russia will collapse for real!
cmon.. people aren't stupid.
@@issadraco532except they have been running out of things, are we forgetting the fact that we are seeing in real time the fact russia cannot produce nearly enough to sustain its losses. And for the vehicles left they won’t just take a week to fix, they need to be fully restored most likely which is months of work and not mentioning the fact of all the modifications that would need to be made. We said Russia was running out of cruise missiles and hey look they are using them less and less, we said Russia was running out of ammo and hey look their buying ammo from Iran, China and North Korea, we said Russia was running out of tanks and hey look at those T-62s, T-55s and T-54s, we said they are running out of everything and hey look at those Russian soldiers with AKMs that are covered in rust, the soldiers with SSH-68 helmets and fake body armor. We said they were running out of APCs and hey look at those MTLBs on the frontlines. All of that is showing that Russia is in fact running out of things because they are not the Soviet Union and don’t have the industry near what the Soviets had as well as not having the competence the Soviets had (which is something I never thought I’d say) you say we’re coping and to use our brains but I just showed that indeed Russia is running out of things. Slava Ukraine
Yes, when those will dry up, it's all over....the nukes wont stop. Carefull what you wish for Yankeee boy
A lot are deployed with larger army and a lot could be moved to be modernized. Also 1500 is more than the whole of EU.
@@tomk3732 EU spa is better than russian spa
I've been shilling for this channel for way too long to have just realized I wasn't subscribed 😂
I just checked that I was. Good reminder.
Ditto, just to used to it showing up in the feed. I have now subscribed and hit the bell icon.
That's hilarious 🤣
Qu'est ce qui est hilarant ??@@chaost4544
Me too 😂
I would like to point out, in the video of the artillery count you did a while back, you called about 2961 SPG's in storage, so, in 6 months, Russia has lost about 396 SPG's in six months.
That is still pretty high to be honest.
If we assume that every vehicle is used, then Russia, at this rate, would run out in about 36 months. 3 years.
This is assuming this rate doesn't accelerate, I suspect it will due to lack of tanks and other vehicles will start creeping in.
Been waiting for this video great job.
6:01 note that Gvozdika/2S1 is the only one that is less than ~40-100% depleted, and the only one with major storage bases (80th and 120th) still at pre-war level. This is probably due to the fact that any T-series tank using its native indirect-fire mode can provide much the same firepower, albeit at a shorter range (but with better armor and mobility).
6:18 and on - 2S4, 2S7 and particularly 2S5 might have mostly scrapyard-quality remaining, seeing how removal from bases slowed down since 1 year ago. It is particularly striking for the 2S5, which is not enclosed and liable to detariorate more quickly in storage.
The 2S7 is also an unenclosed piece, basically the 2S5's larger brother. Here too the quality of the remaining stock is dubious, but the leveling-out since last year is not as conspicuous as in the 2S5.
OTOH the 2S4 is basically a "block-buster" siege mortar with a very constrained firing arc and little utility against trenches and other small targets, so it might actually have a lot of intact vehicles kept in reserve for the "Siege of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk" or the "Assault on Odesa" or whatever foul samogon the Putinists are getting drunk on these days.
Note the 2S19 for the opposite pattern - they are the most modern SPG in Putin's arsenal and were held back at first... but since 2023 the draw-off has shot up.
good intel. thank you for your analysis and the expenses that you make to give us a greater perspective.
Mr Cabal, welcome back.
We have missed you.
I'd rather be Agent Smith lol
This kind of videos are so important! Also get cited by others quite a lot.
Really good primary source
What a sweet Sunday, Perun, Jake, and now Covert Cabal! Have a good one everybody!
The whole shoot and scoot doctrine made sense when counter battery radar was the main way to get the location of artillery. Now it’s mainly visual, via drone surveillance. So shooting from cover is often preferable without going out on the roads afterwards.
It's still superior to towed pieces. The Russians have so much towed artillery. The mobility of SP guns make them useful for attacks. They may be accumulating a reserve. Don't be surprised if they go to Kursk while more towed pieces remain on more static fronts.
Hard to maintain cover if they're shooting... I don't know what you say may make sense but... From everything I've heard the idea is to get out of the range of the drones or stay on the move so counter arty can't Target
Hauling ass away from where you just did the most obvious thing your machine is capable of doing short of putting your location on tiktok still seems like a good way to reduce the risk of getting hit by return fire.
@@lexslate2476 Not when the return fire consists of lancets.
They can't get out of the range of drones. And the lancet drone, which is the main counterbattery weapon of Russia, can hit targets on the move.
As always, thank you for all of your hard work in putting out these amazing videos
I very much enjoyed your video and I gave it a Thumbs Up
Mate I love you and your work. You’re a champ.
The bottlenecks in repairs probably has something to do with it. Labor shortages and part shortages make it tough to get stuff rolling
Appreciate your work!
The amount of research done in this video is very impressive 👏👏👏
I seriously appreciate the time and dedication this took. Excellent methodology and reflection on the margin of error and what variables remain unknown.
Remember, even fielded pieces become unusable due to tube erosion. The Russians use a lot of artillery, and a SP with high tube erosion is good for friendly fire incidents, tow vehicle, or ammo waster.
Towed artillery isn't just about costs. SPA is basically useless in jungle warfare, while towed artillery can be airlifted into positions that vehicles can't access.
Good thing Ukraine isn't a jungle
Wouldn’t there be logistics issues delivering ammo then? Unless you are airlifting shells, which is gonna be expensive.
@@timothymtorres They airlift everything. You can fit a towed howitzer inside a Chinook or two underneath. It's a small price to pay for a strategic advantage.
Something that is worth noting is that barrel life is very important to howitzers. How many of the remaining still have their barrels? Could be crucial.
Artillery Barrels are complex.
They have to withstand huge pressure and heat. They tend to become very inaccurate and fail after a few 1000 rounds.
You start with a specific grade of steel. It's heated to about 2000° and then processed in a rotary forge. It goes through multiple heating processes to strengthen the steel.
Afterwards it's machined in multiple processes. It can take 175 days just to machine a single barrel. The U.S. has modernized since 2019. They've reduced this process to about 80 days.
This is all done with a limited number of huge machines.
The U.S. can produce upwards of 800 to.900 barrels a year if need be.
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ruZZia uses western technology to produce artillery barrels since the 1920's. They replaced this out dated equipment in the mid 70's with newer western technology that they still use today.(Obviously not the latest U.S. proprietary technology)
It's the same process posted above. About 175 days of machining with limited machines.
Leaving ruZZia capable of producing about 100 artillery barrels a year.
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ruZZian metallurgical abilities are inferior to the U.S.. Their barrels don't last as long. Also due to sanctions, they've little access to spare parts.
ruZZia has replaced about 5000 barrels in self propelled artillery from the towed artillery in reserve.
This isn't an infinite supply. They've likely used those in the best condition to date and what remains is of lesser quality. This can lead to an increase in catastrophic failures.
Note that ruZZia stores their military equipment in the 2nd worst place in the world. The extreme cold in Siberia.
Extreme cold artificially ages steel. Can shrink it by several 1000ths of an inch.(already at tight tolerance) and causes it to become brittle. Then you trigger a massive explosion in that barrel with the power to hurl a 100 pound projectile 15 to 26 kilometers at 3000 plus feet per second.
What could possibly go wrong.
Aww shit early to some covert cabal
Now imagine how many of those remaining are just empty cannibalised husks.
The latest in SPH is RCH155 fully automated and crewed by 2 it is the only SPH which can fire on the move (up to 30km/h or 20mph). When used for shoot-and-scoot it can deploy, fire 8 shells and move on in under 90 seconds.
what about the towed artillery? Last video combined both - SPG and towed!
CC, very nice. One point about Algo, if your video is "clicked away from" before the video stops, the algo punishes you by reducing exposure. Even if you showed everything you wanted to show. Channels get past this penalty by scrolling credits on the side or bottom of the screen while still giving information, and cutting abruptly. Also, I request that you or your team make an assessment of individual events of reported S-400 destructions since February 2022, as the total number of S-400 launchers in 2020 was estimated something like 464 launchers, in 58 groups (8 launchers each grouping). Russia obviously isn't out, but imo, they are clearly with blind spots.
Just came across the channel. Thank you! Finally, something real, not a usual tea-leaf reading.
Ships are just spaa but cooler
But if a ship is powered by sail, is it self propelled anymore?
@@Doomrider47 if the crew blows hard enough
@@BenHere-qs6wjIt's the navy, of course they can, lots of practice
The numbers are pretty mindboggling though compared to Western SPG production runs that are typically in their dozens per year.
Missing vehicles doesn't necessarily mean more loses. Perhaps they just send more to the front
Given that they dont have enough ammo anymore would make this nunsense
While SPA is very useful in this current conflict, towed artillery has some unique advantages. First, it can be air lifted into position (not super useful in this conflict), and secondly, it's not part of the vehicle. You just need something to tow it. If the engine or tracks need maintenance on an SPA, you also lose that artillery piece as well.
I wonder how the towed artillery numbers currently look. Thank you for these excellent videos!
The lion share of the remaining SPGs are very out dated, yes a 122 or a d30 152 still make some boom but they are very inaccurate and outranged by most drone operaters and every single 155 gun
I feel like between tanks and armored vehicles and these, plus economic issues, this war will end within 2 years. It will have to.
Your data and presentation is 2nd to none! Well done!
7:31 Those sticks tied together really highlight how these things absorb recoil.
Just to clear up, remaining equipment isnt just how much they got to replace losses. Last month Ukraine reported that there is twice the amount of tanks being used by the russians currently within Ukraine then what they initially invaded with and there's almost 4x as much troops . The Russians are speeding up their restoration programs, if u join any russian telegram you'll see a video like every week or 2 of them showing a video of modernized T-72s , IFVs being sent to the frontlines, the first year of the war u would only see 1 of these videos every month or 2
It is though a good gauge for how long before Russia starts facing shortages
You’re right, but the supply is finite. At some point they’ll run out of tank, artillery, manpower, and money. It’s just a matter of what order and predicting when.
@@truechaosmulala3831 Its not like they're only refurbishing old stuff in storage and not making new equipment. uralvagonzavod for example, they claim to make 2-3 batch of new T-90Ms per month but from footages of supply trains carrying these to the front lines we usually see between 15-20 tanks . Thats still a lot, Russia on average losses 6-8 T-90M per month on Oryx from what im seeing, so their production is still outdoing their lost .
With how bad the situation is in Ukraine, its not a matter of waiting for Russia to run out of equipment, its how much longer Ukraine can withstand because their military aid packages are literally what russia is getting every month or 2
BS
@@drewski5730 as perun said they will not run out of stuff , they will have shortage of them they cant utilize enough of them if they keep losing equipments at the same rate
Sleep can wait…Covert Cabal has uploaded!
CC: Toad Artillery
Frogs have artillery?
Ribbit 🐸
Could you create a similar video counting Russia's military aircraft storage and reactivation? Russia retired lots of flyable Su-24s, Su-25s, Su-27s, Mig-29s, and various helicopters in the past 2 decades, and Ukraine demonstrated that old Su-24s and Mig-29s could still be reactivated to good use.
I think aircraft outlines are a lot easier to distinguish from satellite photos than ground equipment :p
According to this report, Russia actually has MORE 2S3, 2S4, than 6 months ago, when you made the last artillerie video.
Also some pre war numbers in this video varies quite different compared to your last artillerie video, for example the numbers of 2S1, 2S5, and 2S9! Really strange
In Ukraine actually self propelled does not have advantage over towed artillery. With drones easily being able to spot movement hide and protect reportedly works better than shoot and scoot.
I'm going to need some evidence for that.
@@tamlandipper29 I saw some Ukrainian artillery men mention that in articles, but I can't find a source unfortunately.
But it is logical as drones can more easily spot moving targets, towed artillery is more easily concealed and protected with anti drone nets, and are more survivable as they don't immediately explode if they get hit.
@@nietkees6906I saw the same claims being made by, I think, Rob Lee on the Russia Contingency podcast. I don’t think they came to the same conclusion that non self propelled systems were superior to SPGs, simply that the tactic of shoot and scoot isn’t as effective when you have a UAV observing both the shoot and the scoot, and that concealing and protecting the system was proving more effective in comparison.
@@Warspite1 And I would go a step further by saying that it is easier to conceal and protect a towed artillery piece, making towed artillery superior to self propelled artillery, in the context of the Ukraine war. In other wars, with more maneuver warfare, SPGs would likely still be superior.
It's a haunting sight to see dozens of trees with the bark ripped off and at the center of the mini atomic wasteland a turret ring and a crank shaft just sitting on a road... If I ever saw one of these in real life I wouldn't get within a hundred yards...
I heard Russia started receiving new artillery systems recently, such as the 2s43 malva it is a 8 x 8 truck mounted howitzer like other European systems do you have any information on the deliveries of new artillery systems?
Russian general Steinerovich is just a mere Putins command away from crushing Ukrainian Armed Forces with the thousands of newly built 2s43 Malvas. They also possess new generation stealth technology, which is why nobody has actually seen them in numbers in transport.
With all due respect, cause I really like the content you deliver per se, 1/2 the video is intro xD
soo true - I just rewind to the actual data :)
Obviously they dont move fast enough to dodge big bullet
Cool.
Would another year to 1.5 years be how much longer Russia could go on at the current rate?
I’m sure we will hear Swan lake play on Russian TV before that long.
40% of pre war numbers left. What number can be made at all serviceable? Could half of what is left become useable in twice the time of the better stuff? Their economic ability to do the work slows as time progresses too. Their war front could collapse with perfectly useable equipment that they just didn’t have the resources to resurrect.
@blazunlimited 😂
Presumably, when these vehicles are destroyed, their crews don't survive!
Whilst Russia can reinstate Soviet era stockpiled vehicles, finding experienced crews will be very difficult.
As with other Russian armoured combat vehicles, the stockpiles are fast running out and there are no new vehicles being produced.
Russia can expect to see their front line troops left without armoured combat vehicles to ride in on to attacks on Ukrainian Defenders positions.
They will also not be available to provide support to their troops during advances.
The question is not if but when lmfao.
The Western news outlets said Russia will run out of everything every single year but still they have not ran out.
Drone warfare is raviging these slow machines this days.
2:50 😂 love this crew, wonder if one of their call signs of rocket!
Thank you for the update!
One location with almost half of all the artilleri, if just Ukraine had better long range strike capability.
You say they are "gone".. kind of misleading. A lot are either in use, in transport, being repaired or moved to a different storage.
Apparently western tanks are being used mainly as artillery by Ukraine.
Perhaps more "tank like" SP artillery is the future.
more important than the tanks
For Russia, I have heard that artillery is important. There are a lot left in storage, and they can be repaired more easily than decent tanks. Even so, they are vulnerable in the battlefield.
One of the all time best channels
Great video as always! Are you planning on doing a video about towed artillery soon? If Ukraine's numbers are to be believed the have been destroying a lot over the last few months. It would be interesting to see if this is reflected in the amount pulled from storage.
I heard A commentator quote several Ukrainians saying 60 to 90 seconds after shooting is all artillery has before drones or counter arty is on top of it. I guess Tanks with great inclination have to race the drones to get to shelter (electronic or physical) or get out of arty range. Makes sense like if the party is shooting with in 1 km of a drone's maximum range they might shoot and scoot before the drone gets to them. Field arty is like, dead
most likely he lied. from the beginning of the war, it was around 35-45 seconds before first shell start landing around you. Was a video from ICTV when first delivered HIMARS and M777 got caught.
CC: How many artillery both self propelled and towed did Russia have in storage pre-war? I think you did this tally at one point. I seem to recall over 20k.
UAGS is now claiming clise to 17k losses.
never belive any data coeming from UA
@@sguploads9601 Because it doesn't suit you? I'll take my own counsel.
Do the they have enough Nork Ordnance feed these old Soviet relics?
Nork. I like that. Short for North Korean and it sounds like orc, just starting with N. Fitting.
It seems as though it might be easier to fight those in the parking lots than in the field. Even if you miss one, you'll surely hit another and maybe all. You might destroy junk, but likely also to hit many that would otherwise have time to reach the repair stations and active duty.
Almost 500k subs, LET'S GOOOOOO
So, I notice that, based on the report in February, there's barely a decline in SPGs. From 2900-ish to 2500-ish. Of course, this video does not include the towed artillery, which sat at 6.800-ish in February, and which would be the most likely to see a decline, as these would be more likely to be cannibalised for barrels, and we've seen a lot more of them being blown up on the battlefield (e.g. D-30). I hope a next video will show the towed artillery's decline, as I think we should see a significant drop here. Looking at Ukraine's reports, they claim to have destroyed 7.828 artillery systems between February and now. Even if only half of that were true, that'd still be 3.900-ish artillery systems destroyed. So I wouldn't be surprised to see that stockpiled towed artillery has been cut in half.
Can you replace a self propelled howitzers barrel using one from a towed one? Are those even compatible?
@@yves2932 to my knowledge, yes, because they use the same ammo too.
They could always add a couple tubes to the split tailed batteries who are slower moving and vulnerable.
Okay now this is a great video, it shows Russia still have quite a lot of self propelled artillery systems. Now a towed artillery as well number of GBADS would be good. great work thank you.
It actually shows that Russia has very little. They also have less resources to do the necessary refurbishment.
will you ever do a video on how much equipment that ukraine has left of it's prewar inventory
I’m guessing they will start stripping barrels whenever possible when they can. Russia seems to be firing their artillery in a massive way which causes barrel break down and then replacement a priority.
I would like to see armoured vehicles / artillery storage numbers for Ukraine as well.
Ukraine has no problems with its vehicles. When they run out of vehicles, Europe and the USA simply send new ones 🙂
They don’t have huge storage yards like this. If they did, the Russians would have flatten them by now.
Or, at least you’d think they would have….
Neither Russia nor Ukraine will ever run out of artillery simply because as their stock goes down they will change how they use them and start being more careful with their exposure.
At some point that "change how they use them" is "agree to a ceasefire"
but the mainstream media has been telling me that russia is running out of missiles and tanks and shovels and washing machines and that supreme general ben hodges and the ghost of kiev are about to launch the siege of crimea soon... what is going on?!? i thought russia was gonna collapse soon!
Aside from the fact Ukraine can be gifted MANY more units by allies
@@lorenrb80 Aside by the fact Russia can be gifted MANY more units by allies. he-he.
@@sergeyboychuck8872what allies? Iran has NATO 155mm artillery, North Korea has ancient kit and China wouldn’t dare.
It's telling that the Ruzis didn't simply collect rows of equipment, but had to pick from the field.
So what remained standing is probably garbage, or at least would take more effort to make deployable.
Thanks for the nice video sir!
I just realized... The guys on both sides just have to crap in the woods.
your doing great work guys!
I have been watching reported Russian artillery daily loss rates closely and they have recently skyrocketed. Clearly, Ukraine has been focused on targeting it. Also, admittedly, those numbers don't differentiate between self-propelled, towed, or even mortars but do show trends. The other thing that I wonder about is Russia's capability to produce new gun tubes. Presumably many of the refurbished SPG will require new barrels and those will compete for those barrels with replacement barrels for already deployed guns and for tanks. All the attention has been on the attrition rate of main battle tanks, but I think artillery will end up being a more important determining factor in Ukraine. I have already seen reports of Russia deploying WW II era artillery to the front lines. As much as their deployment of T-55 and T-62 tanks, that tells me that the Russians may be getting to the bottom of the barrel. Also, little mentioned is the poor storage practices used in Russian stockpiles. As mentioned here, nothing is known about the condition of the equipment that remains. My suspicion is that is pretty poor and less and less is salvageable without a major overhaul that may significantly slow the rate of refurbishment. The same is true of their old tanks. I have seen a slowing of tank losses, and I think that is likely due to fewer available to accompany Russian infantry meat wave attacks. Reports from Russian infantry also complain about the lack of artillery preparation and assault support. Also not mentioned here is the outcome of older, less accurate Russian artillery counter-battery duals with newer, western suppled artillery. Russians have always put more emphasis on artillery massed fires over accuracy. It is the equivalent of comparing using a shotgun to a sniper rifle. Both will work, but one requires a heck of a lot more ammo, which we have seen playing out in Donbas. Eventually the N. Koreans will stop supplying their crappy quality ammo. Although a large resupply from N. Korea, that may have been a one and done thing.
You didn't address replacements. What information do you have regarding the production of new units?
Probably nothing. They could count the number of pieces at the factory, but that doesn't really tell you anything about the rate of those pieces moving through the factory.
With the imagery that civilians can obtain, the best that can be determined is that Russia is drawing down its storage, which implies that whatever production is, it is insufficient to fully meet the demand at the front line.
@@zirconiumdiamond1416 There are still methods available that can be used to get a good estimate of production rates. Since any production job involves a fixed amount of human and machine labor, you can use pre-war production and employment figures at tank or SPG plants, both of which are well known with high levels of certainty since SPGs and AFVs are heavily exported, and then look at how many new jobs have been created at the plant to estimate how much the total production has increased since the beginning of the war.
Then there are a bunch of other methods used, like seeing how much loss rates have changed, which systems are being lost when, and then civilian intel + RUMINT + official statements. If you lurk around OSINT spaces you can see these analyses for yourself, but I've never yet seen a single estimate of production that is even close to even the most conservative loss estimates, which correlates with the data in videos like these that show such massive withdrawals from Russia's stockpiles.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 nope, it would be just pure speculation.
Example - tank production in N.Tagil. Cold war era real production (verified) was 3k+ per year. in 2010s factory reported full capacity productions is 1,5k per year. which number TODAY is right?
also, two tank factories activated - old Omsk (T-80) and new in Rybinsk.
How to know how many tanks are produced?!
@@sergeyboychuck8872how many of those are reactivations? What happens when there’s nothing left to reactivate? No way they are making that many new tanks yet riding into battle on golf carts and motorbikes
@@Minerals333 reactivated tanks count separately. 250 per month was a goal, already reached and breached.
What happens when there’s nothing left to reactivate - Russia has run out of (you version) since March 2022. Surprise for you - Russia is industrial power. no problem to replace the stocks (example BMP-3 - total production is reached 700+ per year (two divisions)).
riding into battle on golf carts and motorbikes - and UKR riding (a lot of videos since Kherson) in city buses. where the almighty western equipment?
just do not eat shit (brain washing) and try to look WHY RU do it.
I saw a report that they are having to use more towed artillery from stock because the self propelled type have a lot more electrical wires and components which the rodents have been stripping out so that is interesting
Calling the mobilized rodents is rather rude.
1:33 Das Boot is on my Netflix and I live in the USA... not sure why you lied but okay
Amazing work!
Good question would be what is the state of barrels and how are Russians able to refurbish them?
Factories
Really hate all these misleading VPN ads.
theres more going on with self propelled artillery, i remember reading that some of the earlier designed vehicles break more often when firing and ruzzia is firing a lot of guns some designs are more reliable so the attrition of simply normal successful firing will mean a lot of the hulls we see in storage may be parts donors or scrap with some useful bits on it although that depends on what parts they have stored away but that analyses is much harder to figure out
Thx for counting and the video.
Great video! Will there be an update on towed artillery like the one you did around the beginning of this year?
Can you do your tank analysis on Iran? NK? China?
That's about 20-30 videos right there.