10 months on from this and how spot on was he about gold and goldminers, yet he dared only give it a slight mention. Shows what a quality thinker Russel is!
I’m in the uk i would say the country is on the point of serious civil unrest, people are furious with the puppet politicians…stable is the last word i would have used..
Saw one of my old clients in Lisbon last week and was asked a few ordinary questions 1.Thé concentration of the U.S. equity market component. In France ,Germany and most of the developed countries,the largest stock represents more than 20% of the index In the U.S. ,the largest is 7-8% of the total . 2.The cyclical adjusted PE has reached at the historical high . Back in 2018,one of the European managers expressed the negative views of the U.S. equity on this yardstick .They were sure the U.S. equity was about to go down in a few years . The cyclical PE has reached it historical high in 2014. Then one could have missed the best equity market move in the U.S. for a decade ! Since 2009,the most important is to understand FED’s move . ‘LIQUIDITY’! If one likes it or not ,that is how things are done ✔️. The macro reading is 100X more important than valuation matrix . Most academics were super frustrated and express anger .
There's some validity to that suggestion, but the US is unusal globally in fixing the interest for the life of the loan. Many countries will fix for a couple of years or provide loans with variable rates. Also, the debt is likely not just housing, but all forms of consumer debt, cars and credit cards etc, so not linked to an appreciating asset.
I don't buy what this guy says about NFGD (around minute 23-24 ) and risk. A higher non financial debt to GDP is not necessarily bad; it just means that the economy is more highly exposed to trade. Non-financial debt is debt raised for the purchase of goods and services - trade credit facilities, deferred payments and leasing arrangements.
Brilliant analysis. I totally agree with the overall Financial Repression outlook. However, I am not sure I agree with how that outlook converts into trading positions though: I cannot see why the SP500 would do worse than other markets such as Japan
the only way that the S&P 500's crazy p/e can be justified is if AI profits drive that 6% growth and the AI winners are known and identified correctly by the market and that growth kicks in really soon. Yes that might be true, but it's a big ask. Japan by contrast has been a dead equity market since 1989 since the 1980s bubble there. It took the US market a similar time to correct from 1929. boom. The tide is now about to change in japan.
@@andymartin5755 we dont need a productivity boost for multiples to keep growing. We just need deficit spending in all western countries to continue pumping liquidity and the US capital markets to continue being more dynamic than other DMs. Why not Japan instead? Because it has a HUGE deflationary anchor on its back: horrible demographic, anti-immigration culture, massive debt levels and a much less expansionary credit market. I would bet US over Japan for the next 10 years all day long.
Always interested in what Napier is making an argument for but haven't seen that translate into winning calls. Back testing this 11 months on shows the pieces haven't played out this way. 2025? 2026?
In a humiliating turn of events, I understand my commenting privileges were temporarily revoked in the interests of the safety of the RUclips community.
He's good to listen to but he never actually makes a call on anything. It's basically a history lesson and a bunch of "what ifs" The idea that you invest in something because it's "less risky" totally misses the point. Emerging markets are cheap for a reason, not by accident
@@wilmanleung he doesn't understand China at all. The Chinese will always signal their intentions and not resort to knee jerk actions. That's long term planning, like decades.
I'm new to investing, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
Napier's main mistake here is in thinking that entire nation states act in concert. The Japanese Government, for example, is not in a position to dictate to individual Japanese institutional investor how they capital allocate.
What Napier is saying is that we are rapidly moving into a multipolar world with less freedom of movement of capital, goods, services, people, everything between rival regions. Not no movement but less, for e.g. more capital controls, what he calls financial repression. The US government has been giving grants to certain sectors (Inflation Reduction Act) and imposing tariffs on selected nations (e.g. Mexico). Private money will be shocked how bullied it will be by political institutions in the multipolar world order. You may believe you have a right to free movement of capital - nobody will care about your 'rights'. It's about to kick off big time with Trump but everyone else will respond in kind. Governments will direct institutional investors toward certain asset classes by removing other options using legislation - aka financial repression.
10 months on from this and how spot on was he about gold and goldminers, yet he dared only give it a slight mention. Shows what a quality thinker Russel is!
Yes and the S&P is up 24% 😂😂😂
Great stuff, thanks again!
thanks for sharing. "money you can slip in your pocket" a phrase to remember.
This presentation shook me
Slides say Jan 10th. However, it is a long term theme for multiple years of investing
Bravery to not mimic the Index !
Innovative ways to implement Capital Controls!!!
Australia has had a huge jump in debt servicing cost, Id love to see an updated chart.
What was the date this lecture was presented, thank you?
The presentation is not new. I saw it before. It says New Years Conference 2024.
Ok presentation says Wednesday, 10 January 2024.
I’m in the uk i would say the country is on the point of serious civil unrest, people are furious with the puppet politicians…stable is the last word i would have used..
Brilliant
Is total debt to GDP the right measure for a country's debt problem without taking into account the savings and foreign reserves?
Saw one of my old clients in Lisbon last week and was asked a few ordinary questions
1.Thé concentration of the U.S. equity market component.
In France ,Germany and most of the developed countries,the largest stock represents more than 20% of the index
In the U.S. ,the largest is 7-8% of the total .
2.The cyclical adjusted PE has reached at the historical high .
Back in 2018,one of the European managers expressed the negative views of the U.S. equity on this yardstick .They were sure the U.S. equity was about to go down in a few years .
The cyclical PE has reached it historical high in 2014.
Then one could have missed the best equity market move in the U.S. for a decade !
Since 2009,the most important is to understand FED’s move .
‘LIQUIDITY’!
If one likes it or not ,that is how things are done ✔️.
The macro reading is 100X more important than valuation matrix .
Most academics were super frustrated and express anger .
Busting out DFW, nice!
I find the presentation very interesting, I am unclear regarding the process government uses to motivate purchases of government debt?
Mandate purchases. For example, state/govt pensions are forced, by regulation, to "decrease risk" through increased govt bond allocation.
Get your facts right! Emerging markets have no debt because they're so unreliable nobody will lend to them, individuals or governments.
Why only show the debt side of the balance sheet? In the US I bought a house 5 years ago and the price has doubled. I have a 30yr mortgage at 3%.
There's some validity to that suggestion, but the US is unusal globally in fixing the interest for the life of the loan. Many countries will fix for a couple of years or provide loans with variable rates. Also, the debt is likely not just housing, but all forms of consumer debt, cars and credit cards etc, so not linked to an appreciating asset.
and Norway has its oil fund, worth 200k per capita
I don't buy what this guy says about NFGD (around minute 23-24 ) and risk. A higher non financial debt to GDP is not necessarily bad; it just means that the economy is more highly exposed to trade. Non-financial debt is debt raised for the purchase of goods and services - trade credit facilities, deferred payments and leasing arrangements.
Brilliant analysis. I totally agree with the overall Financial Repression outlook. However, I am not sure I agree with how that outlook converts into trading positions though: I cannot see why the SP500 would do worse than other markets such as Japan
the only way that the S&P 500's crazy p/e can be justified is if AI profits drive that 6% growth and the AI winners are known and identified correctly by the market and that growth kicks in really soon. Yes that might be true, but it's a big ask. Japan by contrast has been a dead equity market since 1989 since the 1980s bubble there. It took the US market a similar time to correct from 1929. boom. The tide is now about to change in japan.
@@andymartin5755 we dont need a productivity boost for multiples to keep growing. We just need deficit spending in all western countries to continue pumping liquidity and the US capital markets to continue being more dynamic than other DMs. Why not Japan instead? Because it has a HUGE deflationary anchor on its back: horrible demographic, anti-immigration culture, massive debt levels and a much less expansionary credit market. I would bet US over Japan for the next 10 years all day long.
in 2024 we do have a new high in snp500 so far
Always interested in what Napier is making an argument for but haven't seen that translate into winning calls. Back testing this 11 months on shows the pieces haven't played out this way. 2025? 2026?
if equities in the US go down, tax receipts down, and USA is toast (luke gromen thesis) - how would that work.
No capital gain taxes
He did not talk about Russia and Bitcoin
Don’t own them 😂 Trade them ! (He didn’t say this)
In a humiliating turn of events, I understand my commenting privileges were temporarily revoked in the interests of the safety of the RUclips community.
ok ,clown
Happened with me dozens of times 😊
The world is going to find out the cost of cheap money
He's good to listen to but he never actually makes a call on anything. It's basically a history lesson and a bunch of "what ifs"
The idea that you invest in something because it's "less risky" totally misses the point. Emerging markets are cheap for a reason, not by accident
You invest at individual company level not some globulous categories. Certain tech companies will far outperform value or old economies equities
It couldn't have been more than a month or two ago that china was uninvestable - now its the new paradigm?
He was totally wrong on Chinese floating the yuan.
yes it's a brave call - not sure what his rationale is. He didn't really explain it.
@@wilmanleung he doesn't understand China at all. The Chinese will always signal their intentions and not resort to knee jerk actions. That's long term planning, like decades.
If they didn't they were going to be in an imposssible situation. They didn't which is leading to collapse..
I'm a simple guy ... I see that beard and click
His conclusions are based on no productivity booms. All I can say is AI and robotics. There could be a billion AI robots in the US in 10 years.
I'm new to investing, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a pro or a very good trader to keep you accountable.
Someone like expert Melanie Ann Karnavas
This is correct, Melanie strategy has normalized winning trades for me also and it’s a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started.
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
It doesn't matter if you are a current hodler or a newbie. You can capitalize on the fluctuation of Bitcoin by trading with good strategy/signals
Gold but not bitcoin? Showing your age Russell.
Napier's main mistake here is in thinking that entire nation states act in concert. The Japanese Government, for example, is not in a position to dictate to individual Japanese institutional investor how they capital allocate.
What Napier is saying is that we are rapidly moving into a multipolar world with less freedom of movement of capital, goods, services, people, everything between rival regions. Not no movement but less, for e.g. more capital controls, what he calls financial repression. The US government has been giving grants to certain sectors (Inflation Reduction Act) and imposing tariffs on selected nations (e.g. Mexico). Private money will be shocked how bullied it will be by political institutions in the multipolar world order. You may believe you have a right to free movement of capital - nobody will care about your 'rights'. It's about to kick off big time with Trump but everyone else will respond in kind. Governments will direct institutional investors toward certain asset classes by removing other options using legislation - aka financial repression.
total nonsense; if you do not understand how deflationary such debt levels are, you do not know anything.
I'm guessing he sees inflation