Reuniting North and South Korea Would Be Almost Impossible
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- Опубликовано: 10 янв 2024
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There is no more deadly area in the world than the DMZ between North and South Korea. Millions of mines, and lots of guns and surveillance prevent anyone from crossing. But if tensions were to somehow stop and North and South Korea reunite into one country, it would still be almost impossible to combine their economies. Why would we not be able to use the lessons learned by the reunification of East and West Germany?
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Why do you wrongly call hydro carbons fossil fuels?
Idk about this bro
In which US state do you live and when did you move from Australia?
Next do what If Taiwan aka roc and mainland China aka PRC reunites
@edwardsnowden8821 that would be so dire it could never happen without direct war. The entire world outside of China, including Russia, Iran, North Korea, and India, would all be at direct risk of invasion. The only thing stopping China from pushing its claims with the 19 surrounding countries is because of the economic harm it would inflict due to not being able to control the seas outside of the first island chain and thus ensure exports and fuel imports.
Eastern Siberia, North Korea and all of Ladak and Arunachal Pradesh will be taken within two decades of China taking Taiwan.
North Korea is not like the GDR. East Germany at least tried to stay competitive instead of just relying on nukes.
Guess who collapsed and who didn't?
GDR did not try a be competitive. The Honeckers were the most ruthless dictators of the soviet block.
#stopsocialism
@@buszen What does someone's ruthlessness have to do with their ambition to be competitive!? The GDR tried very hard to be competitive simple due to the reason that East Germany in general and East-Berlin more specifically were one of the few Soviet places Westerners were able to see, so showing them the ideal socialist state was one of the highest priorities of the SED and Moscow.
@@buszen I would say the Ceaușescus gave Erich a run for his money. When he was overthrown, he and his wife were basically immediately put on trial and executed a few minutes later.
Erich and Margot were allowed to continue living, first under the protection of a protestant priest, later in Chile. And while Erich Honecker died in 1994, it's because he was sick. Margot lived until 2016
@@redpipola guess who still had it’s main funder and who didn’t
Apart from Germany, Ireland and Italy are also interesting comparisons regarding the income per capita gap. The north south divide in Italy is even larger than east west in Germany
Not only that, East Germany had only a ~Quater of the Population of West Germany. That is not the Case with North and South Korea, a Reunion would crush the Economy of South Korea.
Also in the most northern part of Italy (just south of Switzerland), I noticed that there were not Italians living there, but ethnic Germanic speaking people. So it's like north of the north divide too.
@@gOtze1337If done immediately. There were some plans of reunification till corrupt SK president which was fired later thwarted everything pressing on NK delicate spot about abandoning nukes and stopped any help when received an obvious NO.
I think you are referring to South Tyrol (the only German-speaking region of Italy) and in that case, it borders Austria, not Switzerland @@oditeomnes
Italy is due to culture and geography though not economic and political systems and military forces like Germany and Korea.
Convincing the younger generation of South Koreans that North Korea is not 'another' country is an actual problem in South Korea now
How is this a problem? North Korea has no real interest in unification, both sides plan and act as though they are completely different countries.
They even look down on their Northern subjects, so reunification would also have to deal with social integration
@@yuyoshida7359 I know what you're saying, but I have to take the opportunity to point out that they look down on them literally as well. South Koreans are several cm taller than their Northern counterparts.
@@me0101001000 Because of surgery?
@@AwesomeHairono because of nutrition
I worked for a South Korean company when I was in Strasbourg. It was the early 2000's and reunification of neighboring Germany was still a common topic in the media. I asked my Korean boss, who was well-connected to Korean policymakers, whether the Koreas would reunify if the North collapsed. He told me that the South Korean government would parachute supplies to their northern neighbors and wish them good luck. He said that few really were interested in seeing that happen. (What to do with 23 million brainwashed people?)
If he really thinks NK has 23M brainwashed people then clearly he is brainwashed himself!
Funny thing is, that North Koreans see their southern brothers as the ones who were occupied and brainwashed. Somehow western narrative revolves around the precedent on reunion of Germany on western terms. This outcome seems less and less probable these days.
Current south Korean sovereignty and ideology relies heavily on american (and western) support. It may now seem proper from their ideological point of view to claim that Southern Korea is a successful democracy, while northerners are just prisoners of a dictator (the same ideas that all Western nations hold about opponent states). But let some time pass, let american troops leave the continent (or just the Peninsula), let the overall western support decrease, and South Korea will find itself in a difficult position due to its location near North Korea, Russia and China.
Therefore to believe that North Korea will lose its current sovereignty and join the South, simultaneously adopting its ideology, political system and economic structure is but to exercising wishful thinking. Today's West tends to overestimate the attractiveness of its economic model and values to the rest of the world. It is not 1990 anymore, so West shouldn’t expect such generous gifts of fate as the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In long run, North Korea has more better future than South
yeah. I'm not sure why anyone would want to unify with North Korea. North Korea is supposed to have a lot of natural resources for manufacturing, but unifying with it would be pure charity.
@@Mehwhatevrin all fairnes, you don't need educated men to run a mine, nor to run a farm. and you don't need much education to work in a resterant or cafe. its more than likely the 23 million would just become a cheap labour force.
Comparing two Koreas with two Germanies may have worked in the 2000s, but in 2024, it's no longer the case. On worldwide statistics North Korea is not compared with China, Vietnam, or Cuba, but instead compared with Somalia, Eritrea, and CAR. It might as well be wishful thinking to see it as a more difficult version of German Reunification. From here, the hypothetical may be seen as a game changer for South Korea, but not a panacea for all of its current problems.
This is perhaps something not clear in the video. North korea is pretty much in dead last for virtually every single possible measurable statistic besides military size. It's nothing better than a country sized fortress for China. I don't understand why anyone would want to absorb an economic black hole like north korea, which is a country whose mere existence is subsodized by china.
This is something not sufficiently emphasized in the video. North Korea is not merely behind South Korea but almost dead last in pretty much every single measurable statistic. Why anyone would want to unite with such a country is completely insane imo. This of course ignores the broad array of other extremely bad issues that other commenters have pointed out.
2000's? Try 1970's which is where North and South actually have comparable GDP's.
I agree in-principle, and I'll just add that no one really has any actual idea as to the social or economic measures in NK, other than that they all have to be bad. It's a country in total, deliberate isolation and the government only publishes propaganda. I wouldn't trust any numbers from even the most well-intentioned international researchers, because there just isn't much if any data to actually build an analysis from
@@exeggcutertimur6091
Because North Korea has all of the raw material resources historically for the Kingdom of Korea before the split and the South had all the food, reunification would add trillions upon trillions in new resources South Korea can exploit to boost their economy and the North Koreans get food, education, capital investments for economic development and universal suffrage now being under a Democracy.
Actually, North and South Korea use different names to designate themselves. North Korea calls itself "Joseon" after the Joseon dynasty, which ruled the Korean Peninsula before the Japanese invasion (the Japanese then used "Chōson" to refer to the region itself as whole), whereas South Korea names itself "Hanguk" after Samhan, a term that collectively refers to the three ancient kingdoms that shared Korea in the past.
If that's the case, are the two Koreas even the same country anymore?
@@DukeofTxtspeak Yes, they are. The names "Joseon" and "Hanguk" belong both of them to the Korean nation as a whole, to the same people and territory. When talking about "the North" or the "South", they simply add "buk-" or "nam-": North Koreans say "Bukchoson" to refer to the northern part of the peninsula and "Namchoson" to refer to the southern part, while South Koreans say "Bukhan" to refer to the North and "Namhan" to refer to the South. I am not sure why each state chose a different name to refer to the same country, people and territory, but I think it has something to do with the national projects fostered by them: North Korea was founded by socialist revolutionaries who thought of their people as a colonially exploited part inside the Empire of Japan, hence they identified themselves with the name attributed by Japan to them, Choson, as a way to emphasize their condition. South Korea, on the other hand, was at first a nationalist regime with a slightly fascistic undertone, thus their approach was to look back into the country's history and point to a glorious time in the past which they should recover in a palingenetic fashion. It is important to remember, however, that "Daehan" (the more official name of South Korea: Daehan Minguk - The Republic [literally "People's State"] of the Great Han) was already being used by the anti-colonial movement before the division of the states, so it may be not necessarily tied to a semi-fascistic perspective on the nature of the Korean nation.
@@DukeofTxtspeak fun fact: North Korea calls South Korea 'NamJoseon' meaning South Joseon while South Korea call North Korea 'BukHan' meaning North Han. So yes they are still the same people
The current word in Japanese for North Korea is Kita-Chōsen, and for South Korea it is Kankoku. The old word for the Korean peninsula as a whole was Choson (the O is not long, not Chōson).
@@DukeofTxtspeak Yes, we are. Just because North Koreans use 조선 and we use 한국 doesn't make North Koreans any less Korean. We still have the same culture and same history. We are one people.
I'm a Korean. I believe that unification of North and South Korea should be a result, not a goal. It is not easy for countries with different ideologies to merge. I believe that North and South Korea can travel with the goal of peace and common interests, and that exchanges come first. In addition to the national division of the Korean Peninsula, the ceasefire also resulted in the division of the country, preventing people from freely traveling to each other. I think resolving this national division comes first. Then, I think we can achieve national unification in the distant future.
but germany was divided during cold wary for almost 30 year.
@@RonaldRueda910 As the video explains, the difference between a manufacturing powerhouse of the west and the most advanced country in the Warsaw pact, was nowhere near to the difference between the absolute poorest and one of the richest countries
Genuinely curious what you think now that Kim of the North said that they’re no longer pursuing reunification and see the South as their chief enemy.
I believe that unless China collapses, the Korean Peninsula cannot be unified. Or you can look forward to another possibility. In the future, China may become enough powerful that can replace the leadership of the Us. At this time, China may require NK to economic reform and be open, just like the United States interfere in the internal affairs of other countries.
@@DamonHowe7it's because he sees how impossible it is too
I was an exchange student in Dresden in 2019. The East to this dates still feels like a different country with vast gap in infrastructure. As an international student, I was able to connect with people from West way more than East as they were more willing to communicate in English.
That's a quite interesting experience. Because if there is one sector, where I would say eastern Germany could compete with its western parts, than it would be infrastructure. Nowhere else was more money put into. Could you tell me which things in infrastructure you are thinking about? Roads, energy grids, telecommunication are quite equal if not even a bit more modern in the East from my perspective as an former East-German working in the western parts now.
Congrats - you failed to integrate and brought your biases with you. You want a cookie ?
Another English speaker with zero language skills
Hey what happened to Dresden in WW2?
Honestly, i think the underdevelopment of North Korea and its natural resources is being _massively_ understated here, and I say that as a point of optimism for reunification. Should they ever re-unify, then either through private or public means, Korea will have a huge influx of opportunities for building factories, mines, housing, education centers, and any and all associated amenities with it. It would give an extreme shot in the arm to South Korea's population, who are highly over-educated and underemployed, as well as open up a bunch of freedom and working opportunities for NK's population of slaves to a corrupt farce of a government.
*Samsung, Hyundai, Coupang rubbing their hands together*
Other than a few elites like hackers and overseas smugglers (who likely won't cooperate), the NK population is useless for all but the most menial tasks. It would take generations of net fiscal losses to educate the children into productive modern Korean citizens who are also not distracted by the enchantment with the "simplicity" of the old Kim dynasty days. Meanwhile they'd also be competing against rising automation that threatens the employability of an ever-growing share of humanity.
There is no doubt that there may be potential gains from the raw materials and resources, tourism, and land for development, but the problem is the astronomical upfront costs and investments needed to develop them as to be profitable. Add to this the fact that South Korea will effectively have to subsidize living costs for the entire North Korean population; then compound this with the world's fastest shrinking population with an unprecedented fertility rate of
@@abyerock6367 Oh, pish-posh, when an opportunity like this arises somebody _always_ finds the money. South Korea's multi-billion won companies will race each other for land development contracts as fast as they can spend the dosh.
Fertility rates are lowered in no small part by high cost-of-living expenses, low job opportunities, and high housing costs. A land development boom would strike all three issues at once.
Repatriation and re-education of millions of North Koreans is, admittedly, a less attractive proposition, but at the same time, I'm willing to bet they're willing to work for cheaper prices than full automation on assembly lines. It's not great, but it's still a notable QOL improvement from living in the DPRK.
You don't think the North has housing, education centers, mines and factories producing all sorts of goods already?
an underrated aspect of german unification was, that the people of germany ( yes east and west) wanted it. they were also willing to sacrifice... time and money and wealth, because the people realised that it would pay off in the long run. without some similar mindset, korea will face insurmountable difficulties in reuniting.
i know this is a rather simple picture and of course there was opposition, especially in the west, where people were not so eager to sacrifice, but they did. thanks to them "we" are where we are now because of them.
in a unification, sacrificies will have to be made. and south korea will have to sac a lot, because the north koreans are basically saccing since korea got split up.
I think the best way would be to not reunite, but forming a korean-union, consisting of both countries with a single market. That way South and North Korea could explore ways to do business together, but without mass immigration from the north to the south and china would still have it's buffer country. Visa free travel could be allowed, but a visa should be required for north koreans trying to permanently settle in the South, so that there isn't a big brain drain.
This but with the goal of reunification after a set period maybe and bolstered with a binding constitution and military integration otherwise it would be a union in name only
Essentially an EU.. KU in this instance. I like this idea
That's an interesting idea. Some good food for thought
I’d suggest a long-term (50 years or so) plan of gradual unification. Start with a loose confederation to help standardize the two countries, then a federal structure that would allow for economic integration, then finally full political unification.
@@craigbryan6980 yes I based this idea partially on the EU
Sad to think that the cultural and economic gap is such that Korean reunification is a near zero possibility.
I think China is a bigger issue, North Korea is a buffer zone between them and westen allies they would invade North Korea to keep everybody else away from Chinas border
Why is it sad?
@@matt69nice Because what was once a single population has been divided into two with such vastly different outcomes in almost every aspect of life. That divide grew and continues to grow because of fundamentally unfair and stupid reasons. Not sure how any normal person would look at that situation and not think it's sad.
@@patriarch7237the reunification is gonna be more sad. When South Korea loses the Korean War it probably wont be good for Kim’s new subjects.
@@christopherderp5535How would South Korea, Japan, and the US lose
6:40 Berlin might have the largest total GDP but per capita it only leads the east and is behind pretty much every city in the west. And that's only after receiving almost USD 100 bn in subsidies over the last 75 years. Only few years ago, Berlin was the only capital in the world that lowered the per capita income of the whole country.
In 2022 Berlin had a GDP per capita of 48k EUR while Germany had 46k EUR, so at least things are improving, even though the east no longer receives subsidies
Yeah and within Germany Berlin has a reputation of being poor.
There was some debate back when reunification first began that economically it would be better to keep the capital in Bonn. The desire to go back to Berlin was nostalgic or more about history.
It's good the capital doesn't receive too much economically from the country
@cristicristi6500 I remember when the Ukraine war started and people made statements like "imagine you had to give up your capital just so your neighbor stops killing you as often" and many Germans just joked like:"if we did that we would end up with more money for other stuff and hurt the neighbours economy by handing them the money drain"
Basically you’d have a situation where the north is just to serve the south through exporting raw materials and providing cheap labor, which will lead to resentment in the north and create political tension.
what would be a necessity for the North-South reunion is a period where North Korea operates separately as a market economy with South Korean investment and aid until it catches up.
That's unlikely because in the event the DPRK collapses, the South is required by their constitution to reunify.
INB4 the international community (western countries/ UN) protest about the treatment to treat NK as an internal colony (tho not that the SARs of china is not that either way...)
SK is basically the most technologically advanced country in the world and highly urbanised.
Whilst the North is stuck with basically 1980s tech in many areas that is not super urbanised.
The culture shock alone... 😂
The culture shock wil be severe. Up until now east germans trust institutions far less and tend to vote more authoritarian, based on their experiences 30 years ago. Its even some intergenerational trauma. And tbh, the east german dictatorship was hard, but no comparision to what north koreans live through right now.
Plus the 1990s was one of the worst times in Korean modern history only experienced by North Koreans maybe not as bad as the Korean War for Northern Koreans who had everything they knew destroyed by bombing and had to live underground to escape the bombings
Would Airbus be more sophisticated than Boeing if Airbus begin to manufactured commercial airplanes in South Korea?
More like the 1960s
@@barnacleboi2595 LOL!😂
Germany did it. And while there are still differences as a 21 y old german i feel like one united country
Well the divide between E & W Germany is much much much smaller than the two koreas. East Germany none the less is the most developed country in Soviet bloc and people of two Germany maintained some level of contact. But in the situation of two koreas, even their language is not 100% mutually intelligible anymore.
@@stevexracer4309I agree with you, but are the insults necessary?
You’d also have to convince the leadership of North Korea to give up their absolute power where they’re treated almost like living gods, or convince the people of South Korea to accept absolute rulership by the leaders of North Korea.
@@georgeadams1347 They whole thing based on a black swan even that expells the Kim family without a nuclear war.
Think of it as a thought exercise like what if the Soviet Union never collapsed.
@@georgeadams1347sadly, North Korea and East Germany are not similar at all. Life in East Germany in the 80s is probably better than North Korea today.
7:50 The best idea that I have is to leave the DMZ as is. Tunnel underneath it for highway and rail connections, but then leave the area as a nature reserve/exclusion zone. It would certainly be faster and likely cheaper than getting rid of the land mines
then comes the guessing game of "just how deep did they bury their landmines?" that no tunnel construction worker or engineer would want to play while on the clock
You should do a deep dive on why all the worlds most advanced economies are ending up below replacement rate.
One major issue is population ratio. Before German reunification: West/East = 4:1 .. . Korea now is : South/North = 2:1 ... There will be double the load on top of wider tech differential.
18:10 That was an incredibly interesting point that I had never considered. North korean education is relatively good, but they're up against south korea's standards, whose students rank among the best in PISA. Its going to be a challenge to reconciliate the south's industry with that fact.
North Korean education is no joke, they didn't build nukes and cyberattack schemes out of uneducated peasants. The only area that considerably lags behind is their understanding of the capitalist system. The hardest part for many NK defectors in the South is adapting to a society where the government doesn't tell you what to do.
I’ve been expecting a video on this matter from your channel! Thanks and greetings from Greece!
After letting this new dual-channel format sit with me for a while, I have to say that I am really enjoying it. I believe that I am learning more than the sum of the videos across the channels. Props on the the success of the new format and value add to EE.
I would say Romania and Moldova are more likely to unite, but even those countries are nowhere close. South and North Korea are centuries away from uniting!
Looking at the video and comments, i am glad that people are starting to understand that divided Germany and divided Korea are two completely different situations. German reunification was possible due to several lucky circumstances, circumstances which do not apply to the Korean case. Does Korea deserve reunification? Absolutely. Will it happen? Absolutely not.
If you had asked people about German reunification in 1985, they would also have said that it wouldn't happen. But things can change faster than you think, just like they did back then.
@@256shadesofgrey I think it will happened, but took a long time, the key is Kim's regime must be ready to step down, or get into democratic politics, like what happened in Taiwan, people back then wouldn't believed it that KMT would step down from dictatorship and entered democratic politic.
And now on bigger scale, CCP stepping down is the biggest impossibility than North and South Korean reunification.
I think if CCP became a bigger threat to both north and south, that might be the real key to reunification.
Uniting South Korea with North Korea would be like uniting Germany with the Roman Empire
didn't germans invade roman empire and collapsed it? That's unification... kinda.
Hey I really like your videos, keep up the great work! Maybe you could also show the borders of Luxembourg in your maps in the videos
Honestly, I think that to even dream of unification there'll need to be an intermediary step of the north and south working co-operatively side by side as independent nations for a while. This could be as a sort of Korean Union where they can start to share resources and unify policies and laws.
They'd also have to temporarily restrict permanent immigration until the north was stable enough for people to want to stay there. However, they could soften the borders by having visitor and study visas.
In terms of the educational differences mentioned in the video, I think this could work like the conversion exams many countries already use: people with non-transferable qualifications take an exam or a series of exams to prove their competency, if they fail only then do they need to requalify. The requalification course could be designed so northerners only need to do modules on the parts they failed.
This type of approach would reduce the retraining time. Also, if they took the co-operative, but separate approach for a while then this could happen prior to full unification.
Of course, even this is a pipe dream at the moment and the longer the two Koreas are separated the harder it will be for them to unify.
Kim gon be pissed you said North Korea instead of DPRK. 😂
Interesting topic. Heard theory talks about the reunification but not heard the economics of it as much. Great video topic!
Another good vid from one of my fav channels
Best of video of the year so far.
The best way for reunification is a soft reunification where their economies, government, and migration are separate but they share the same defense, foreign policy, kind of similar to how Hong Kong was supposed to be run after handover to China. To make this beneficial to both sides, the South would focus on developing the North, while the North would focus on supplying the South with cheap labour and natural resources (there's more resources in the north than the south). This is also assuming that this is in a world where the Kim dynasty is overthrown and North Korea becomes a democracy
I remember as a kid the Berlin Wall coming down, it would be a fitting end to life to see the DMZ taken down and Korea reunited.
love the content!
Very sad EE, you made Germany annex Luxembourg, this makes me cry
I think Luxembourg is pretty used to it by now... especially, they kept getting invaded by the Swiss...
Still hoping for a United Korea under Seoul one day.
I would really love to see a video about the economy of the russian city of Norilsk. It fascinates me because it is located in the Arctic and is basically run by a huge mining corporation called Nornikel as in some weird post-apocalyptic russian cyberpank universe.
A video about Estonia would be great too considering their stunning growth in recent decades and the way they have managed a steady restructuring of the whole country after the renewal of the independence.
@@stevexracer4309wow ok Stevie. You’re an awesome communicator- strong on empathy.
@@stevexracer4309 I am Russian myself, Steve. I`ve been to Siberia and have friends who come from there. I can definetely tell that YOU don`t know anything about this region. You are wrong
It would be so so so difficult. Thanks for posting this video!
To unify Korea there would have to be military action and suppression for decades like in the early days of South Korea it would be too much effort and Korea could get isolated by the international community
If we assume the NK regime is eaten by wild boars or otherwise blissfully leaves the world, which would the rest of NK need suppression? Essential to NK indoctrination working so well, is the ability of the NK government to keep the population in the dark about what the rest of the world is like. Take that away for a bit and see how well that works.
"Hello neighbour. Now your oppressive overlords have gone, here are your SK rations. No, that isn't to last you for a year; we will be back in a week with your next ration package. Here is your TV. We'll provide electricity so it can work. Feel free to flick around the hundreds of channels so you can see how we live in the south. Yes I know some are garbage; and some say rude things about our leaders; and I bet some are about our criminals and bad stuff in our society. Its up to you, watch what you like."
Sure, you can fake a version of life in paradise on a couple of TV channels, but on hundreds simultaneously? The resources needed to fake that would be enormous anyway, so clearly SK must be doing better that the society that the NK viewer knows, even if the SK are lying about it. If you show them a shot of the skyline of Seoul which they can believe, you've probably made your point.
Give that a few months. By then, how many of those people will be very keen to return to the good old days of paranoia, punishment beatings and boiling moss from stones in order to survive? Because anyone who still wants to go back will be the ones that would need "suppressing", and I don't think there would be very many of those.
I think that in the situation where SK had to supress the "holdouts", they'd get quite a lot of leeway from the international community (with one massive exception that matters, and a few more that don't). Most of the world isn't a fan of how NK is run or how it treats its citizens, and aren't going to be terribly concerned if SK gets (a bit) nasty in removing that system.
I don’t think the Kim dynasty would mind using military force and they are already isolated internationally. The only things stopping them is the south’s allies and time. After time the south’s allies will get pulled elsewhere and the south’s population will continue to fall until they are completely outnumbered by the north and unable to defend themselves.
The atrocities that the Korean victor of either side would be vehemently disgusting and possibly labeled genocidal. Yes even the South -- in reality the men are _way_ more dark-minded and violently macho, practically the opposite of a K-drama lead actor.
What always gets left out of these discussion is not the cost of reunification but the COST OF NOT UNIFYING. It is not just the economic cost, but the psychological-spiritual cost of a family being divided into two hostile camps that has to constantly prepare/squander resources for a war that never ends. The cost of being divided means that a huge amount of human resources(which is Korea's greatest resource) are diverted away from more constructive things. NK men and women have to spend a significant chunk of their prime years in the military, while SK men have to also interrupt their careers/education during their prime years to serve in the military. Furthermore, being divided means that they end as puppets to greater powers like China and USA. Lastly, the reunification issue goes far beyond economics, it is existential issue for the Korean people. The Koreas must avoid being assimilated out of existence. China has a clever strategy of Sinocizing entire ethnic groups out of existence by moving a lot of Chinese into the occupied territory(See Tibet and Xinjiang for example)
You note some very important points
It sure sounds like the benefits of unifying the two Koreas outweigh the risks.
About time someone made this video
Hello, it's very interesting seeing the analysis and comparison to the German reunification. I wonder how this would compare to North and South Vietnam unification post the Vietnam war
As a 26-year-old man who was discharged from the South Korean Army, I hope that there will come a day in my lifetime when I can freely walk around Pyongyang with the Taegeukgi(sk flag🇰🇷), but I know that it is realistically impossible.😢
It could have happened in the '90s when the Soviet Union fell, and China and North Korea were less weak. Unfortunately, the world overlooked that region. Nowadays, with China's rise, reunification is unattainable as they actively support and protect North Korea's resurgence.
true
You understand they can reunify as a country allied with China, right?
@@ImbalanxdAnd... You think South Korea is going to let that happen?
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 you think china is going to let an American puppet state be on its border?
It would be destabilized and brought in line, just like Russia did with Ukraine, and just like the US did with every country near it. That's how regional hegemons work.
Even if South Korea did want it, the US wouldn’t. China and the US use Korea for their own geopolitical purposes
6:00-6:20-I've never actually cried laughing at a youtube joke in my life. That was incredible
very interesting topic
The Soviet Union fractured and its sphere of influence followed suit. It would take the financial and political collapse of China (which would have a massive negative effect on the world's economy) for that to ever happen. N Korea is a buffer. Despots love their buffers.
One would think today technologies have already rendered the concept of buffers obsoleted.
@@zollen123authoritarian states haven't got the memo. It's incompatible with their ideologies.
@@zollen123No, certainly not. Geography is still incredibly relevant too war.
same way America needs Taiwan as a buffer to contain mainland China
@@prouddegenerates9056 Airborne troopers + vehicles (WW2 tech), submarine with ICBM near enemy shores, stealth jets and drones all these technologies renders the concept of buffer zones obsoleted.
DPRK has huge ground military while ROK has a large Navy and ship building capacity, so as a military power alone, Unified Korea would be incredibly powerful. Now you combine the GDP of ROK and the productive factors on the north, you will definitely see a huge increase in economic growth. Its also important to remember that the korean people do not have anything against each other, its the government in power on both sides that have a problem with each other.
DPRK only has a large military because their conscription term is very long, Wikipedia says 13 years but who knows if that’s accurate. I’m making this up but i think they use the military as a form of welfare and/or social control.
The graph at 13:45 doesn't make sense. The graph should not have a sharp upward turn at that high distance. The unloading costs are essentially constant regardless of the distance the ship travels, so the graph should be nearly flat at long dishances.
For those of us who are old and remember the unification of Germany, we remember when they discussed a potential confederation between the two states, at least until they could be equalized.
This would clearly have to be done between the two koreas, until the malnutritioned and underdeveloped North could be brought to a decent standard of living in health.
probably if they didn't reunify quickly, it might not have happened at all, at some point East Germany would have just joined the EU and would still be a separate state today
That all failed when the Berlin wall came down what's stopping millions of North Koreans to run across the DMZ
Everything I've read about the daily experience of north koreans has blunted my expectations about the viability of reunification. Mostly because of the fractal mental harm the Kim dynasty has inflicted for generations. Just getting a whole national population up to speed about the current state of affairs would be a lot, even with modern internet connections.
I don’t think they are completely out of touch North Korea has a pretty huge black market and have many people working abroad all over the world they have world class hackers and everything. North Korea gets allot of hate but it’s not somolia or something
@@christopherderp5535 I don't think that actually gets them very far. A population around 25 million with probably less than 200k working abroad still seems quite isolated.
@@briankuczynski6884 you would be surprised Kim Jung Uns regime is quite different from Kim Il Sungs or Kim Jung Ils. Many of them have access to western media and it is not even close to how it is generally represented in the west. Don’t get me wrong I still think the country sucks but it’s not as bad as many other countries. Also they are probably gonna win the Korean War.
Mate, I think we have to emphasize the possibility that the low cost of labor in the North could trigger a manufacturing booom and could make unified Korea an even bigger manufacturing and export powerhouse than the South currently is.
Except that there is almost no infrastructure and even though education is better than in comparable countries like Eritrea, it is nowhere near enough for any modern work I can think of.
If the Koreas are united the northern part will immediately plunge into poverty as they will have much to buy and almost nothing to sell resulting in money flowing out and leaving entire country with empty wallets.
The reason why today is better is that their half-a-century-out-of-date extremely inefficient industries remain "competitive" because there is no alternative.
It will be like Soviet Union collapse, but MUCH worse. Russians call that time "wild nineties" - time of much opportunity and even more tragedy as generations worth of savings evaporated in a few weeks, and highly-sought positions and skills that people worked all their lives to acquire became irrelevant. Time when top scientists had better luck sweeping streets or selling bubblegum. Every Russian family still has a sad story of losing everything and having to start from scratch, and Ukraine was hit even harder.
The subjects of the North do not have the skills necessary to trigger a manufacturing boom. What should they be producing? They'd either be starting so far down the value chain that it's a net drain on South Korea, or it'd be something completely beyond their abilities or capacity.
It's so wild to me that the internet is old enough to have news articles from three decades ago.
5:00: There’s a term for that: a social market economy. Konrad Adenauer put it in place.
Biggest reason Germany could unite is the USSR was willing to cooperate with America (USSR was also finically stressed) but China is now the main backer for North Korea vs before when it was the USSR and China has no interest in having a United Korea that backs America because it will give America a land bridge and closer striking access to China and after Japan took over and marched in, they are committed to that not happening again and that’s just some of the reasons. Obviously so much geopolitics are at play.
Neither scenario seems particularly likely, but I'd love to see your analysis of the Kim family somehow gifting DPRK to China. Would the larger Chinese economy be able to absorb and modernize easier/faster?
This is actually more likely than reunification.
@@jimmym3352 Why is that likely? Kim wouldn't willingly give up his current position without a fight, why would he gift his position to China or any other country? Or perhaps you mean unification with China won't happen and unification with S Korea won't happen either.
@@Mark_Bridges You are correct, he's not going to give it up. Neither will his sister. And if military generals seize power, they won't give it up either. The only scenario I see Chna taking control is if there's a complete collapse of all services in North Korea, someone would have to move in to fill the void. But even that is unlikely since the generals would probably just allow the population to starve as happened in the 90's and other famines. But even if the chance is small, it's still greater than reunification with S. Korea.
From a financial standpoint, the answer is probably yes just because China is so much larger, but socially and militarily there would be a huge amount of issues.
That would be a terrible political decision North Koreans would surely rebel. China hasn't controlled Korea since the Han dynasty. Under that communist robe, North Koreans are very nationalistic
Could you look at the same scenario for Ireland & Northern Ireland, please?
‘…a mixed approach, combining the best of voluntary association, with the very best of forced association under threat of violence.’
Sounds a bit different in such clear terms, doesn’t it.
Try that sort of ‘mixed relationship’ with the people in your life, and you’ll see exactly how well the coercive part works.
I think unification and globalization are super hyped by economists and geography lovers, but in reality it just forces populations that want to live differently to dominate and control each other in one way or another.
I think in this case you have it backwards.
I don't think the North Koreans want to live differently, they are forced to.
Nah it prevents wars and war does what you described but a thousand fold
Honestly, I think the best thing that could be done if North Korea was freed from its current dictatorship would be a long period (atleast a couple years probably) of rehabilitation of sorts so that they can "ease in" to and learn about and explore the modern world at their own pace. Limited foreigners (People and Gov's alike) going into NK, but allow NK'ers out to explore and learn. Once the North Korean realise that the world is very much not their enemy (especially the US), from there they could then decide how they want to move forward. Foreign aid from all nations could help support them through this transitional period (and probably one of the few times I'd truly support such a thing). Nothing should happen in NK itself during this time, to prevent any shock to the country and it's people, and to keep any bad-faith actors out looking to exploit them for gain.
Basically, the social needs need to come before anything economic, and the North Koreans would need to be treated with sensitivity and respect. They'd be extremely vulnerable to manipulation etc.
Oh the US is an enemy of any future NK government that comes after the Kim regime's inevitable collapse you forget who is NK neighbors some people couldn't give up the opportunity to mess with their rivals
So glad you covered this. Would be great if you can more videos on North Korea!
13:50 I don't think this graph is correct, the unloading and loading costs should not be distributed across distance like this. You would see the spike increase in cost regardless of distance but the slope of the graph would be lower for ship + truck.
Difference between Germany and Korea is that Koreans have been divided a lot longer than Germans. Furthermore, unlike Germans the Koreans do not wish to unite as the South does not want to pay the North any dime so that they can catch up. And that is not to speak about cultural diversity they have now (just watch first K-Pop concert in North Korea and you will see why).
I truly think its not only possible but it will likely happen that Korea will unify. I really dont understand why they wouldnt despite the point you and the video bring up. It is the government on both sides that are against each other, not the people. The north has cheap labor, rare earths, and productive capabilities while the south has modernization, financialization, tech and infrastructure. Working together would be to each others benefit and they can keep their systems of governance too, one country two systems (a la China)
@@edwinvargas7969 China and Russia want to keep the north in existence to act as a buffer against an American ally, and they are part of the reason why North Korea is still in existence today by providing most of the North Korean food and energy imports so that the regime does not collapse. If it did collapse, with weapons of mass destruction in their borders that could be held by a faction that could accidentally strike any of their neighbors, not just South Korea, it makes sense their allies would make sure they donèt collapse for at least their own safety. So if reunification to be possible, in this geopolitical atmosphere, you need to convince China and Russia to recognize an American ally with WMDs on their borders. So how can you convince themÉ
@edwinvargas7969 the people are against each other south koreans have had to deal with a naighbor that threatened to nuke them over the smallest of things like a balloon and as a result the people of the south are taking a harsher and harsher stance against the north where already seeing this play out as the south choose a leader who they felt would be tougher on the north
Bro I didn’t know K-pop groups went to North Korea. The video is so wild, it slayed me 😅
@@PerfectSense77the face of disgust
Interesting report.
Yes, reunification of Korea would be quite a shock to both countries.
It might slow Korea down for 10 or 20 years. but managed correctly they would come out no worse than they are now, and possibly better.
North Korea would definitely come out better lol...
Every other year we lose a Korean SC2 pro to the military service. They sometimes get back into their former career once their service is up but often times they're just gone forever. I wish they let us keep Dark 😭
At 3:15 you annexed Luxembourg into Germany :O
Now please help us reunite Mongolia with North and South Mongolia. Thank you.
the mongols should take back the outside mongols from china
Now make a similar video on Pakistan Bangladesh merging with India to form massive Indian subcontinent country
Then India become more poor because Bangladesh and Pakistan didn't have a natural resources
0:37 slight error, the island of tsushima is part of korea in the map
Even the "successful" unification of Germany had and still has its very dark sides. Shortly after the reunification, rich westernerners went in and grabbed the most valuable land or formerly state-owned businesses for themselves whereas Eastern Germans did not have a chance because they mostly lacked the private wealth. To this day, many Eastern Germans feel robbed. They are also still sorely underrepresented in politics and media. And this frustration with that "silent divide" is clearly one factor for today's struggles in Germany's domestic politics.
I could only fear how unfair a reunification would become for the regular Northern Koreans in the current economic climate and what kind of socioeconomically motivated unrest this would invite in the coming years and decades.
An interesting topic would be why North Korea can or can't repeat a mini Chinese miracle
Please get away from sponsor like betterhelp.
Why?
@@marciocruz4758 Please google betterhelp scandal if you are interested.
@@marciocruz4758they're shrouded in controversy, others can explain it better than I can but I remember that there was a huge issue with em.
Nice video, any chance you fancy doing a similar one for Irish reunification?
It has taken East and West Germany to almost finish combining their economes, and the work is still not finished. The koreaneconomies are much frtherapart than East and West Germany were in November 1989
The aging/declining population of South Korea is the major factor, imo, that the unification is becoming more likely again. We are already importing migrants from poorer asian countries to do work the highly educated natives don't want to do, like construction. We're also going to need more people in the service sector, nurses, elder care, shop staff, etc. Especially if we're going to have a decade or two of intense infrastructure work to get those railways and mines and electricity networks built across north korea, I think there will be plenty of jobs for the north koreans to do, with only a few weeks of training in some cases.
Of course, they're all going to need to be "re-educated" or "un-brainwashed", if you will, since they have been living in an insulated military dictatorship for many decades now.
Additionally, if you ask you Koreans "should we unify with North Korea?", most will say no... but if you ask, "when North Korea fails, should it be ours, or should we let China have it?", then most will say that of course we should take it, we can't let China have it.
And in that same vein, if North Korea fell and nobody took them? They would require enormous international aid, and knowing that we've been giving aid to them on and off even through warfare, you know we'll be giving them lots of money anyway. We might as well take them in and get the benefits as well.
That part about China is a good point others don’t mention. But at the same time, if the current re-education process still causes North Korean refugees to feel alienation and even express a desire to go home, imagine 25 million of those people now with voting power.
If Korea can’t even “re-educate” those small numbers of defectors + instill patriotism and loyalty in the
…What if the USA and Mexico united??? We need that video too
Bro tf are you high on
What about Saudi Arabia and iran
I remember my boss tried to hire a North korean to fill a packaging job, though a program that helps them find work here at the South, but every single one of them would not show up after a day or two, 😅. It was like they were not prepared for a real job. Later on, I've found out they needed to go to these jobs at least a day every couple month to keep the looks that they were trying to find a job and not lose a monthly government subsidy...
Love the fact that there's an unintentional German flag formed by a few containers near the center of the footage @9:54.
Great video as always but I strongly suggest avoiding lengthy discussions about industries that you know little about. Korea, China, and Japan manufacture the same types of vessels and they use the exact same designs most of the time, in yards that belong to one another, Yamabari owns yards in China as well as STX and Hyundai so there might be a tiny difference in quality (doubtful) but certainly not in the type. Also, no mainstream vessel takes years to build not even a VLCC.
The gulf between east and west Germany was one situation but North and South Korea could not be more different, its more likely North Korea would be subsumed into China.
East and West Germany were in constant contact and were only truly divided when the Berlin Wall went up. Before that people would go back and forth every day. North and South Korea are two different worlds with them almost having two separate languages.
This is definitely my prediction. I'd wager China will eventually subsume South Korea too, most-likely peacefully, once their aging population is no longer able to support themselves.
@dande3139 China won't do that only because its the same if not bigger issue than South Korea. They will start a major regional war if they puah into South Korea. Plus South Korea isn't exactly friendly with China.
@@dande3139 China has its own demographic problems related to an aging population and low birth rates.
The problem is not unification, is who will take over after.
I'm pretty sure that Berlin is not the wealthiest city in the country, it's probably Munich. And the map you showed while talking about it also colors Bavaria a "wealthier" shade than Berlin, which directly contradicts your statement.
thank you for your amazing analysis!! hopefully South & North Korea are going to be reunited in the future!
South Koreas demographic issues necessitate reunification, it’s that simple. They need young people and the north has that. The north also has decent primary education all things considered those young workers certainly have valuable skills to an advanced economy. Firms like Samsung would salivate at accessing that labor pool on their own shores. Are their risks? Absolutely, but the flip side is the demographic death of the south.
Ok so imagine S Korea offers visas to N Korean people. You think Kim will let them leave N Korea to work in the south and never come back? Actually, that is the simple part, nothing good will happen while one side has a dictator.
Now do an economic assessment of the benefits of Canada and the US merging.
Nice!
I think the other issue is when the germanys unified west Germany had been a democracy for all of its history. But the Korea’s have a much more limited history as democracies. You can only really say that the South has been democratic since 1987. Furthermore, for the majority of its history the north was the more productive Korea up until Kim Il Sung died in the 90s. The collapse of the Soviet Union and an enormous famine allowed the south to catch up and surpass the north with the growth of their Chaebol industries
EE crew I got a video idea could you do a video about the economy of Ecuador as is the only country outside the US that fully accepted the US dollar and since Argentina is thinking about doing that I think it would be interesting to see how it affected the country. As we know many Latin American countries struggled with hyperinflation and how that has hurt stability and confidence I would like to see the pros and cons on what it's done to Ecuador my mom is from there so we'd love to hear your take
Ok, just here me out on this one. I believe that especially if there was a peaceful Unification, countries like the US and its Allies and (in certain scenarios) even China would gladly provide cheap loans to Korea to assist with the unification cost.
At the moment, huge amounts are spent militarily against N. Korea with no end in site. Spending even the same amount or less than current expenditure but with a time table for loan repayments would suddenly make a lot of sense.
One notable thing is that South Koreans have been studying extensively and very closely the German reunification, for decades.
And their experts look at it as a _failure._
The economic divide between East and West and the burden the East still is on the German economy are seen as unacceptable.
This gives a pretty clear idea of how little South Koreans would be willing to accept the incomparably more dire scenario and great sacrifices that would come from unifying with the North.
Reuniting those countries could save S.Korea
By bankrupting it?
@@lolomgwtfbbqqqq S.Korea needs people. Its getting more and more depopulated and imigration is not an option. The most important asset the country has are its people. S.Korea needs human resources more than any other country in the World
@@wbfwbl8434And North Korea with its underfed and underskilled people is good for... What?
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 I did not say it would be easy. The fact is that S.Korea and its politicians are more than desperate to get people into having babies and nothing is working. SK is a closed country with very limited imigration. Depopulation is a fact and it is and will be brutal for SK.
If you look at the reunification in the short term it may look even like a nightmare but in the long term it could be more than a blessing. I'm in favor of the marathon way of thinking. Besides that USA would me more than happy to see both Koreas unified with SK as the leading party and would support it in many ways.
@@wbfwbl8434 let's hope they get plenty horny before they are wiping themselves out.. nk is like another planet, how can they look at reunification on an economic basis, it's just not happening under current circumstances
They can reunite, but not if the CPC is still ruling China. They won't allow it. They love having NK as a buffer state.
Whats wrong with a buffer state lol its better than havin the world biggest terrorist organization (u.s. military) right on your border
yeah, i also think china would rather invade north korea than let it unify with western friendly south korea
same way America needs Taiwan as a buffer to contain mainland China
buffer state logic is nonsense propaganda. They just need a poor Nkorea that they can exploit and Nkorea keeps falling for that trap.
same way America needs Taiwan as a buffer to contain mainland China
My Korean friends also emphasize a major social issue. Values such as equality, the freedom but also burden to decide for your own life and even women's rights are totally different in the North than South. Refugees from North Korea need years to adapt and integrate at least somehow to the industrial democratic environment of the South. Partially that's the result of another 30 years (or one generation) of separation as compared to Germany. I doubt, German reunification would work out similar today with much less social and family ties between the East and the West.
It is always funny to see peoples reaction to unification of N/S Korea vs Taiwan/China
If they dealt with the chaebols and tax in the sourh, and invested into the north for training in farming skills, equipment and mining, it would be good for everyone there
Not going to happen, without a whole lot of body bags.
Germany was able to unify with the cooperation of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union had countries to act as shields, Poland and Belarus. Even if you pass through Belarus, the distance to the capital is considerable. However, North Korea is adjacent to key regions of China. South Korea alone is about 800km from Beijing. China will never want unification.