Bigger Than Nvidia?! Price Target If Palantir Scales Infinitely...
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- Опубликовано: 24 фев 2024
- Create your own forecast: indomitable.app
Timestamps:
00:00 Important Introduction
03:35 Forecasting
09:45 Valuation
Twitter: / palantirvision
Website: www.PalantirVision.com
Tags: #Palantir #PLTR #PalantirVision
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Create your own Palantir forecast: indomitable.app
He never said 527 years he said ten to fifteen years.... Big differences
I agree that AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA last year.
I bought NVIDIA around September because my financial advisor recommended it to me. She said the company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return this year.
That's a great analogy and I love the insight. Professionals could make a really big difference in investing, and I think everyone should have one. There are aspects of market trend that is difficult for the untrained eyes to see.
@@maryHenokNft bravo! I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
*Gertrud Margaret Quinto* is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
People, calm down. A trillon dollars is an incredibly big number. The company needs to get to 100 billion first and then 10x from that point. That is not likely. NVIDIA is hitting insane numbers but that is an outlier. PLTR doesnt need to be a trillon dollar company to be hugely successful. If you have an expectation they will get to a trillion I fear you will be disappointed for a long long time.
Please I emplore people take a look at other enterprise saas companies like Oracle. Adobe, Salesforce, etc. Think about how big and ubiquitous these companies are and look at their market cap. I'm just trying to manage expectations. 1,000,000,000,000 is a very very rarified number to hit.
Right. If you can get a 10 bagger that’s already amazing. There are a lot of really impressive companies out there that would compete along the way. Even Nvidia’a lead won’t last.
@@TF-Times right!! Not to mention the law of big numbers means its much harder to go from one hundred billion to 1 trillion. The fact people are thinking this is probable makes me concerned for an upcoming bubble.
It all depends on the multiple the market is willing to give palantir and how much free cash flow they get
@@EmpireEnglishSchool if the multiple gets that high it would signal a time to take profits and wait for re-entry. I'm very bullish on the company and would hate to sell but a multiple expansion of that magnitude is the definition of a speculative bubble. They NEVER end well.
That may be true. It’s also how people used to talk about NVDA.
Thanks for the mention!
Loved the analysis, testing the hypothesis is a great way to have a sense of how the future could evolve and how much is already priced in 👏
Arny, please add some rationale. You know balance sheets and income statements. Maybe you could put out a video highlighting what type of customer count, revenue, and margins they would need to hit as well as P/E to trade at a trillon dollars. Additionally maybe add in how they would need to scale to that size without meaningfully adding to cap ex or other growth spending as that would also affect the balance sheets and net income.
P.S.
Love your work Arny!
@@nicholas5396 thank you so much Nicholas, great idea. I ll work on it!
@@ArnyTrezzi 🥳🥳 can't wait!
Valid and sensible points!! The fundamental, directional modelling makes sense and, ultimately, the future is unpredictable..
This is a good cautious viewpoint.
That said, AI could create income beyond our current comprehension, potentially speeding up growth. Achieving a $500 PT in 5 to 10 years might be possible, depending on their market penetration.
Absolutely agree with your POV re hyper forecasting.
It all comes down to the number of bootcamps they run and how many of the clients they can covert. We probably need 2-3 quarters to figure out how highly they can scale in terms off bootcamp and the conversion rate. I believe they did 600 bootcamp last quarter, while their aim was 500 by end of 2024. So probably 2400 in a given year as a base case. Then determining how many clients are invited to each boot camp and finding the conversion. If we are talking 10 clients per bootcamp, then we are looking at 24,000 clients attending bootcamp in 1 year and with just 10% conversion, we are getting 2400 clients. Now its hell of a different story if they scale the bootcamp to 5000 or more in a given year. Also note that people leaving these bootcamps are given a ready AI use case to implement into their business, so the conversion rate could be higher.
All the numbers above are base case, because they can have 50 clients per boot camp or 50% conversion. we just dont know how many people are attending per bootcamp and the overall conversions rate.
It’s bigger than “Their” boot camps. The boot camps will expand beyond the Palantir facilities in the future so they can be taught or presented on a much bigger scale in different locations abroad. That’s when the excitement really begins. This is the future of the boot camps.
The need for a quality AIP product is real and growing. PLTR has to be able to attract more qualified employees they can both train and retain through various incentives to keep up with demand and further grow, Politically the pendulum appears to be swinging more to the Right than the Left not just in the U.S. but throughout the Free World . This will also further impact the use of AI for military and other government purposes to scale up efficiency , cost savings and improve results . We can only hope that PLTR can tool up to meet the challenge ...this is soon going to be a different world that is hard to imagine in my opinion.
Important message!: The Q4 US commercial revenue growth of 70% is fairly misleading... Let me explain:
The US commercial revenue of past 7 quarters was (in millions):
Q1 22: $85
Q2 22: $86
Q3 22: $88
Q4 22: $77
Q1 23: $107
Q2 23: $103
Q3 23: $116
Q4 23: $131
The 70% YOY growth happens to refer to Q4 22, which was the exceptional bad quarter compared to the rest. This was the outlier, hence the 70% YOY now. If you compare the US commercial revenue of Q4 23 to even further back, for example Q1 22, you will get "only" 54% growth over that whole period. And that's seven quarters ago...
So expect that 70% to come down significantly next quarter. Because the bar will be raised much higher: the YOY will then be compared to $107.
True, but with AIP just being released we will potentially see that revenue in Q1 2024. I think they are sandbagging on the revenue, so we could potentially see the 50% as base case and 70%+ as bull case.
good point! thanks!
Yeah I think they put up 300+ new cust in Q1 from Q4 bootcamps, that 70% will get blown out of the water not go down sorry.
@@spdrmnmvl1 no need to say sorry. It's good to have a discussion.
Given reduced inflation signals and as the Federal Reserve has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $120K portfolio to enhance the overall performance of my portfolio this year
How much skin do you have in the game? How many shares at what cost basis?
Great video but your website nor the app is working????!!!! Also, what software are you using to do the simulations???
EDUCATIONAL-YES ❤
What if they create another product as hot as AIP?
How big is 1Trillion? If we consider time, specifically seconds, 1 million seconds is under 12 days. Actually, 11.57 days. Imagine a 12 day old baby. Now, what does 1Billion seconds calculate to? That 12 day old baby is now a little over 31 years 8 months old. So, at 1 Trillion seconds that person would be over 31,000 years old!
I do think it but I don't think it will happen anytime soon. They are slipping into every big sectors. Some of these sectors have 100s of billions of dollars moving around . I think it's really interesting that they are able to provide new services, have high growth and make profit at the same time. This rarely happens. If they can keep their name and reputation up as being the Messi of ai I believe we will not be disappointed.
Agreed.
I agree 100% it’s not realistic to think Palantir will be a trillion dollar company in 5 or even 10 years and I’ve been a PLTR bull since the DPL. Those are almost impossible expectations, but I hope I’m wrong. The boot camps are a much more efficient way to onboard customers and I believe it becomes almost gorilla marketing, exposing customers to other Palantir products like Apollo
You always write the most thoughtful comments. I thoroughly agree.
LETS GOOOOOOOOOO❤
Pltr is my top stock. But I am with you. I will be more than happy to see PLTR stock price reaches $60 in 5 years.
It will be over 60 by next year. Onboarding of new clients for AIP is blowing up and will make the price skyrocket. You’ll see at next earnings
PLTR, NVDA, TSLA and COIN baby 🎾💵💸💰
I hope this stock helps me catch up on my retirement savings. I did start until 10byears ago and gave 17 more working years left.... If I make it that long physically 🤯
They are already starting to do online bootcamps
really?
Grete video
🎉🎉❤❤❤
I always find it hard to click and watch a video when it has a rocket emoji in a thumbnail.
You know I normally do not. If you do make it through, interested to hear your thoughts!
Are there really 200000 businesses with 100M annual revenue in the US? And 1million with 50million annual revenue?
Good question!! Likely not in the US but internationally I would say yes
Isn’t AIP free right now?
No it's not free. Boot camps are free.... And most realise very quickly AIP works most effectively with foundry. We haven't seen any revenues from AIP yet... Give it a couple of further quarters and then we will see whether any excitement is justified
I was confused by Karp saying they have not figured out a pricing structure
Dilution is the issue😅
No brainer. Semiconductor and AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I have made more than 200% ROI from NVIDIA with the assistance of my fa, I won’t fail to mention. I agree the stock would go higher in the next couple of days.
I bought NVIDIA around September last year because my financial-planner recommended it to me…said the company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return this year.
That's a great analogy and I love the insight. Professionals could make a really big difference in investing, and I think everyone should have one. There are aspects of market trend that is difficult for the untrained eyes to see. I have made more than 350% through semiconductor stocks under coach by alternative investing. The portfolio comes with perks as well in terms of travel and liquidity.
One of my goals is to employ the service of a coach this year. I've seen some off LinkedIn but wasn't able to get a response. Could you recommend who it is you work with?
She goes by ‘’Natalie Noel Burns’ I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I filled her form and i hope she gets back to me soon.
Maybe 200B if you are lucky in the next 5 years.
Anything can happen in the markets even the improbable. If palantir can get to a market cap of $500 billion in the next 5 years I think most investors will be quite satisfied. But anything can happen, competition and whatever. One never knows what might come up but if things go according to the most favorable scenario, I can see a market cap of a half a trillion dollars in 5 years. From my mouth into the pockets of investors. LoL
Just think how many companies that are trillion dollars companies and how many companies are there in the world.
I would believe $200 billions in 5 years.
5 year if you expect a technological quantum leap from data storage to AI
Thats how a.i work
Do you see Palantir making a b2c product?
Highly unlikely, they have so many boot camps for businesses that PLTR can’t keep up with the demand.
Isn't Arny 100% invested in PLTR?
Idk but I know a lot of people are going all in….
@@ibrahimk.3227 I've been thinking so hard about this myself. Are you all in?
I went all in with my entire portfolio Q2 of last year. I truly believe this thing is going to explode over the next few years. I have not been disappointed so far.
@nickv8816 I believe this too. But I'm scared lol. I'm 70% in PLTR. Over $150k. Alot to lose there for me
@@johnnygrillo2290 that’s ok, I’m probably risking too much but I’m 15500 shares in so I get what you mean lol
Yeah if we reach that trillion it wont be until after 2040 the earliest.
nahhhh ur delusional. probably in next 5 years bro. He was so conservative on the numbers & stuff. not factoring in that they will do probably every NATO country + get the JADC2 contracts. watch what happens when total revenue goes to 50-60% YoY and they hold that for 2 years, The PE and multiples like that will go to the moon (probably PE somewhere in the 300's)
Bro it can definitely be a trillion dollar company but
how do we go from overvalued at $15 to this? lolllll
AIP launch in 2023
that was launched before we hit $15 again in 2023... this bullishness clearly has more to do with the price action than actual fundamentals.. not that i am against it but clearly this video would not be released if we didn't hit $25... just an honest take @@PalantirVisionOfficial
People wanted the video. I did it responsibly. Many caveats and explaining nothing’s imminent. Guarantee you won’t get that elsewhere. Then again I don’t watch other Palantir creators.
been watching your stuff since and maybe even before dpo... no hate...keep up the good work regardless... but many channels out there think a few rows and columns define a company... in terms of nvidia moment... i guess no one saw that coming either since this stuff is not as obvious as people thing it is@@PalantirVisionOfficial
🙏🙏
We could spend more time doing other things, what is the point of buying PLTR and talk about it everyday??? Unless someone has huge money and wants to buy it everyday 😂.
What things? Please enlighten
Palantir will be bought out way before it hits $500. Even $100. I could see Alex selling the company this year. Another reason to load up on PLTR shares.
Karp and Thiel will In no way sell pltr to any other entity. This is their main way to meaningfully impact the world in the most positive way
He's clearly on a mission. Why would they sell?
They will not sell plus Karp and other investors have special shares
No offense but this is an ignorant statement. Alex Karp is not the majority shareholder, plus the share class he and other founders have means outside shareholders will not be able to make a decision to sell. And why would they be bought at the price you've seemingly arbitrarily came up with. ServiceNow is much larger, never sold. Accenture much bigger market cap, never been sold. The list of enterprise SaaS companies is vast that are much bigger than PLTR and never sold.
Could they be bought or sold, sure, absolutely. I just haven't seen anything in their culture or leadership (which is full of founders) that points to this as a likely hood anytime soon.
Just my 2 cents
Agreed! I was afraid of a take over but the more I hear Karp in his ITWs, the more I realize that money is not an issue and he won't be bought out, PLTR is his baby and he clearly seems to be on a mission!
Actually the way inflation is going a trillion is not so far-fetched. Keep in mind 30 years ago the richest person you knew about was probably a millionaire, now we have billionaires, soon we may have trillionaires. It's just how the economy is making the value of money worthless. PLTR could actually get to half a trillion quite easily by 2030 and maybe 3 or 4 years later a trillion dollar company. Valuation doesn't really mean much we are living in a crazy bubble where clowns rule the world.
I'm not sure you understand how long it would take 1 billion dollars to reach 1 trillion at 3% compounded inflation rate. At 3% compounded rate 23.34 years will double your 1 billion dollars. Congratulations, you're still $998,000,000,000 inflation adjust dollars away still.
@@nicholas5396 Yes I understand completely how compounding works but the rich do not compound their money at a meager 3-5%. They make more businesses and double down which generates more income. 1 billion to 1 trillion is only 10 doublings...
I don’t think PLTR will get to a trillion dollar company by serving small companies. They need to own Fortune 500. You’re thinking too small IMHO.
Did you watch the whole video? Most projected revenue is coming from large companies