Almost nobody is calling off equilibrium. In his mind villian only calls of KK,KQ and QQ on the river. AK probably pure barrels the turn and therefore there is maybe some crying calling Aces left. Preflop Ranges are probably narrowed down immensely aswell with a tight recreational player 3betting the small blind. I am playing almost a decade online professionally myself and population tendencies are a very real thing.
Lol, very rarely, someone gonna block bet with queens, kings or KQ. Just calling with when you know you have the best hand is a pure blunder. It doesn't matter whether your opponent gonna call or not. You basically leaving tons of money on the table with this defensive approach.
I think a river raise here is a heavily underbluffed line, so calling is not that crazy to me because people will consider folding AK here. Makes me think of a hand Chidwick played in a recent Triton where he valueshoves AJ vs a xr, bet bet line on JJ5K2 or something and gets 55 to fold for just a few chips more. Because of the title I thought he was going to fold, that's the only massive blunder imo.
This is why being a dumb fish like me is better I'm jamming all day long in that hand, why over think it to this level, if he has a K or Q then so be it...
I’ve always wondered if this is accurate: so when we say the preflop raiser has two paths, we mean he has to choose *before* considering what happens to be his particular hand, right? I.e. if he chooses a polarized line then he is obligated to check with his medium hands, he can’t bet small with his medium hands and polarize with his polar hands.
My logic on this would be to argue with minimum defense frequencies, compared to your own range. I have to defend the raise with some hands, and 88 is among my best hands in my range, so I would not fold. Is this a correct way of thinking or is it flawed?
He called the bet (IP), didn't check back. Nonetheless, obviously still a blunder. However, he might have thought that it is unlikely that he gets called by worse if he shoves.
He gets called by AK, and probably AA. There are more of these combos than KQ and QQ. Magnus just didn't think his opponent had JJ, TT or random bluffs like AJ, and/or he is too worried about 99.
i agree, the only worse hand thats calling a shove there is AK and even that is bluff catcher at that point...i am no solver genius but i completely disagree that this was a blunder i think he played it fine...now if magnus has a super agressive and bluffy image at the table then yes he should have gone for more value in this spot, otherwise its not woth the risk of running into qq.
Flatting river seems like a minor mistake, in reality players hugely underbluff this line, when villain has e.g. AK I think they seriously consider a hero fold. Sim includes things like Magnus floating 56s which might never happen, and mostly bluff shoving AQ. Weird that A8s and A9s are not really in there and are not considered good bluff candidates.
"Seriously consider a hero fold" seems kind of misleading. I think you're right but with any call that's essentially for your tournament life with a non nut hand folding is going to be seriously considered. It might be considered but AK is just so high up it seems pretty likely to get called. It's also 35k for 113k and if he folds he's handcuffed at 30bbs. I didn't catch anything about ICM or pay jumps, which seems extremely relevant. If they're far from any pay jumps AK seems like a slam dunk call. Edit: there's 477 left out of a field of 678. I don't think it's likely for many AK folds.
@@88mphDrBrown Another thing this video doesn't show is e.g. sb almost purely bet-calling A9o otr. Bluff catchers like this are pretty essential to making the EV difference between calling and raising so big. I looked at a marginally different sim (which can give all the same theory lessons, the hand selection is the same but the sizings and frequencies are slightly different) and the EV diff was 1.5bb between raise/call unlike 7.5bb in this video. Anyway, I'm not a great tourney player so take all this with a grain of salt, but my guess is it's not a big leak to fret over unless you're a very high level player, plus it's hard to comment on just how bad it is without knowing Magnus' thought process.
If people overfold then it makes sense to bluff a lot - but if you're too "scared" to value jam 88 in this spot and yet are overly aggressive in river spots in general it becomes very obvious that river aggression is heavily weighted towards bluffs. So when you jam with 88 - yeah, maybe they somehow always fold their AA, AK and AQ here and the 88 is actually generating any value from the shove - but what it does is ensure your range is protected in future spots - which makes up for the ev loss of the shove (which will be very small anyway given how infrequently we're actually up against a better hand) Putting aside the protection of range though - I really struggle to believe that we aren't getting called enough by worse unless your image is of someone that just doesn't bluff. AK might consider a fold but is probably going to "cry call" almost always and they really don't need many combos of it given how few combos they have of KK/QQ that also play like this.
You can shove 88 sometimes, like 10-25% or something. There is 0 or near 0 EV difference, the only reason it's not shoved more is to get a balanced overall strategy. It's the cusp though, shoving 77 at all is kinda bad, and 99 can shove 100%.
im askin in reddit but no one dont asnwer on my question. i repeat this here: what is a blunder in eq. loss %? what we can call a "blunder"? my question came from completely other game where is a "blunder" this is about 8% of eq. loss. so, maybe someone knows from some of GTO programs or somethin like that definition of big mistake("blunder") in terms of equity loss or somethin like that...thx for attention and sorry for my english *PS - im pretty sure poker is on mount Rushmore of theoretical game approach. but looks like -8% (-0.080) this is too much for poker)))
I don't know what "equity loss" means but I view blunders in terms of EV loss. Where the threshold lies is subjective but in this case it was over 7bb, which I think most will agree is a blunder.
@@FindingEquilibriumwhat % of the time does AA sigh-call off a river jam? That runout becomes really dicey for AA to be a call. What does solver say to do?
Awesome video with the visualization of the different range buckets
Almost nobody is calling off equilibrium.
In his mind villian only calls of KK,KQ and QQ on the river.
AK probably pure barrels the turn and therefore there is maybe some crying calling Aces left.
Preflop Ranges are probably narrowed down immensely aswell with a tight recreational player 3betting the small blind.
I am playing almost a decade online professionally myself and population tendencies are a very real thing.
Lol, very rarely, someone gonna block bet with queens, kings or KQ. Just calling with when you know you have the best hand is a pure blunder. It doesn't matter whether your opponent gonna call or not. You basically leaving tons of money on the table with this defensive approach.
What video on range morphologies is you referring to? I can't seem to find it
Fantastic video and great choice in the music.
I think a river raise here is a heavily underbluffed line, so calling is not that crazy to me because people will consider folding AK here. Makes me think of a hand Chidwick played in a recent Triton where he valueshoves AJ vs a xr, bet bet line on JJ5K2 or something and gets 55 to fold for just a few chips more.
Because of the title I thought he was going to fold, that's the only massive blunder imo.
This is why being a dumb fish like me is better I'm jamming all day long in that hand, why over think it to this level, if he has a K or Q then so be it...
I’ve always wondered if this is accurate: so when we say the preflop raiser has two paths, we mean he has to choose *before* considering what happens to be his particular hand, right? I.e. if he chooses a polarized line then he is obligated to check with his medium hands, he can’t bet small with his medium hands and polarize with his polar hands.
Great accompanying music. Was wondering when that track would make an appearance in one of your videos.
My logic on this would be to argue with minimum defense frequencies, compared to your own range. I have to defend the raise with some hands, and 88 is among my best hands in my range, so I would not fold. Is this a correct way of thinking or is it flawed?
a/k/a "monsters under the bed"
why is the norweigan championship in slovakia? or is that a city/state/region/province in norway?
Just google the gambling taxes in Norway to make it clear =)
Queen is a rotten river to raise that set of eights on.
He called the bet (IP), didn't check back. Nonetheless, obviously still a blunder. However, he might have thought that it is unlikely that he gets called by worse if he shoves.
May have been an exploit since the commentator said Forberg was playing snug.
He gets called by AK, and probably AA. There are more of these combos than KQ and QQ. Magnus just didn't think his opponent had JJ, TT or random bluffs like AJ, and/or he is too worried about 99.
i agree, the only worse hand thats calling a shove there is AK and even that is bluff catcher at that point...i am no solver genius but i completely disagree that this was a blunder i think he played it fine...now if magnus has a super agressive and bluffy image at the table then yes he should have gone for more value in this spot, otherwise its not woth the risk of running into qq.
It's not a point if you saw he was disappointed on showdown. He certainly thought AA won't fold to his shove.
He was trying to preserve his tournament life at the expense of EV. A common and understandable mistake from beginners and Phil Hellmuth.
Flatting river seems like a minor mistake, in reality players hugely underbluff this line, when villain has e.g. AK I think they seriously consider a hero fold. Sim includes things like Magnus floating 56s which might never happen, and mostly bluff shoving AQ. Weird that A8s and A9s are not really in there and are not considered good bluff candidates.
"Seriously consider a hero fold" seems kind of misleading. I think you're right but with any call that's essentially for your tournament life with a non nut hand folding is going to be seriously considered. It might be considered but AK is just so high up it seems pretty likely to get called. It's also 35k for 113k and if he folds he's handcuffed at 30bbs. I didn't catch anything about ICM or pay jumps, which seems extremely relevant. If they're far from any pay jumps AK seems like a slam dunk call.
Edit: there's 477 left out of a field of 678. I don't think it's likely for many AK folds.
@@88mphDrBrown Another thing this video doesn't show is e.g. sb almost purely bet-calling A9o otr. Bluff catchers like this are pretty essential to making the EV difference between calling and raising so big. I looked at a marginally different sim (which can give all the same theory lessons, the hand selection is the same but the sizings and frequencies are slightly different) and the EV diff was 1.5bb between raise/call unlike 7.5bb in this video.
Anyway, I'm not a great tourney player so take all this with a grain of salt, but my guess is it's not a big leak to fret over unless you're a very high level player, plus it's hard to comment on just how bad it is without knowing Magnus' thought process.
If people overfold then it makes sense to bluff a lot - but if you're too "scared" to value jam 88 in this spot and yet are overly aggressive in river spots in general it becomes very obvious that river aggression is heavily weighted towards bluffs.
So when you jam with 88 - yeah, maybe they somehow always fold their AA, AK and AQ here and the 88 is actually generating any value from the shove - but what it does is ensure your range is protected in future spots - which makes up for the ev loss of the shove (which will be very small anyway given how infrequently we're actually up against a better hand)
Putting aside the protection of range though - I really struggle to believe that we aren't getting called enough by worse unless your image is of someone that just doesn't bluff. AK might consider a fold but is probably going to "cry call" almost always and they really don't need many combos of it given how few combos they have of KK/QQ that also play like this.
I need to watch this like 5 times. So much to think about.
You have the best videos man
I'm jamming, jamming,
Hope you like jamming too.
I love your Channel !
I like these chess people! ❤
When you say checking back for Carlsen on the river you meant just calling
maybe he meant checking back the turn
@@lukebruce5234 I think I may have said checkback the river, but I meant call. It was still an error either way.
Adding to that he didnt open 2.5bb preflop
Plot twist : he actually did that on purpose to see how many people will pay attention and also benefit from the comments on the vid.
Woulda expected 88 to get 4b all in for co quite alot at 36bb. Maybe I'm a huge duster but im sending em.
You can shove 88 sometimes, like 10-25% or something. There is 0 or near 0 EV difference, the only reason it's not shoved more is to get a balanced overall strategy. It's the cusp though, shoving 77 at all is kinda bad, and 99 can shove 100%.
I guess it depends on your opponents range. If they aren't 3 betting wide enough you can fold.
Cool!
Magnus 2.25x open not 2.5x
Stupid chess players🤣😂 obviously he needs more of this channel in his life☝🏽🤙🏽💸💸
im askin in reddit but no one dont asnwer on my question. i repeat this here:
what is a blunder in eq. loss %? what we can call a "blunder"?
my question came from completely other game where is a "blunder" this is about 8% of eq. loss.
so, maybe someone knows from some of GTO programs or somethin like that definition of big mistake("blunder") in terms of equity loss or somethin like that...thx for attention and sorry for my english
*PS - im pretty sure poker is on mount Rushmore of theoretical game approach. but looks like -8% (-0.080) this is too much for poker)))
lol u internet kids are clueless. love it
hes making a pun/joke cus in chess making a mistake is called a blunder lol.
afaik a 1% is already significant enough to be noticed, 8% is a big mistake already
I don't know what "equity loss" means but I view blunders in terms of EV loss. Where the threshold lies is subjective but in this case it was over 7bb, which I think most will agree is a blunder.
@@FindingEquilibriumwhat % of the time does AA sigh-call off a river jam? That runout becomes really dicey for AA to be a call. What does solver say to do?
Well, it's not a surprise isn't it, that amateur makes big mistakes.
Who is that commentator? He's horrific.
Yawn