Duel Masters - 2023 - IDC 28 3rd place match - FN Rush (TheRaz) vs. FN Mykee Aggro (Spaulding)

IDC 28 3rd place match between TheRaz playing FN Rush and Spaulding playing FN Mykee Aggro commented by Spaulding.
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[@MrBazat]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the correct play at 7:19 to charge BAT and play Terrahorn to search out Jagalzor? You kill his gonta with locust and you have game next turn. This only loses to first or last shield Volcanic Arrows, which I think works out to ~25, so you have ~75% win rate.
The path you chose worked out because the opponent misplayed: he played Volcanic Arrows which did literally nothing in that situation. If he had 3 drop + 2 drop it was better to play that instead, if the had double speed attacker (which he did), it was better to charge arrows for 6 mana next turn. Either way, he would've had 1 extra attacker which means you needed a shield trigger in those 3 shields. And I don't know the list you run, so I'm not sure how many shield triggers you have, but I think it's highly unlikely you have enough to make those odds >75%. I only saw Swap in these games, and if that's the only trigger, then that's only ~31% to hit one.
P.S. I'm excluding outliers (that favor either side) like first shield Torcon, topdecking speed attacker or him drawing Gonta when he needed to charge for 6 mana. I'm also ignoring that Swap trigger could also mean guaranteed win for the Jagalzor play (if you can afford to swap for Cryptic). These factors overly complicate the maths, but all in all the numbers are looking much better for the alternative option.

[@TheOriginalRaz]

Yo, you just put my FN rush list in the video, instead of yours

[@germanduelmasters8387]

200 IQ move :D