My 🔝 5 are: 🥇 Finland 🇫🇮 🥈 Austria 🇦🇹 🥉 Spain 🇪🇸 4️⃣ Sweden 🇸🇪 5️⃣ France 🇫🇷 I just hope Ireland 🇮🇪 can qualify for the Grand Final. It has been an age since we got through a semifinal. 😬
Brunette's live is just so good ❤ she killed the rap part in preparties and the vocals is so on point 🫶 I like the other version with Kami Friends hope with some armenian instruments in there ( duduk & khanon ) overall I can see her in TOP 3 and she is my winner this year 🇦🇲❤️
@@meleeyn I believe the odds are going to change too, especially once we get to the eurovision week. It's safer to bet on Sweden, so that's where the money is at the moment.
You can vote for your own country in this scoreboard app so countries with bigger population can mask aperance of likeability/ranking of their own countries song, its is ussualy the case about members of countries that are at borderline qualification. That just gives them false hope
yes that is true also here you can vote all 37 songs at the same time but we know that there are 2 semi finals and in the final there will be only 26 songs so if your favorite does not qualify its obvious some votes will be different but i think you get the general idea of how each song is going.
vote for Käärijä in the SF1! him surprise NQing is the only thing I'm stressing out about in this edition because you just need enough people to think he's going to automatically qualify and not vote for him. he isn't qualified yet so he needs OUR votes in the SF1 so we could bring him to the GF.
I’m so excited for France, my favourite, I truly hope like you, they are able to sort out whatever is going on as it will be an big ashamed with the song they have this year if all goes pear shape, as always I appreciate your great knowledge about the contest
most viewers will listen to the songs for only 1 or 2 times during semis and final. first impressions are the most important ones, so i don't think these ranks by eurofans make any difference
@@ValS1111 i think a lot of people (myself included) gave them a lot of grace for the extremely low budget and small stage that the Czech NF had. i still think they can pull through and get that same somber / artistic tone that the video gave us but if they come with the vibes from the pre-parties they'll be in trouble
Their pre-party performances has only gotten better for each time. Sound mixing on TV is very different than a live setting. Their sound is difficult to mix with all those voices. I wished they skipped the rap section though…it kind of interrupts the flow of the song too much.
Hi Tom! Great statistics as always. I have to say my top 5 hasnt changed since my first vote but my top 10 has. Czechia has been really disappointing in the live shows I am really stuck on this one because the studio version is a top 5 for me but live it is out of my top 10. Spain and Cyprus have entered my top 10 (I so wanted to hear Andrew live but I have seen some tik tik videos it seems his voice is quite good), and sadly Norway and Denmark have fallen out of my top 10, Reiley due to his poor live performances and Alessandra I am not hyped about it as I was from the start. I think to win Eurovision you need a song that people can still enjoy after hearing it for a month but it also has to give that big first impact to the audience that hears the song for the first time during the show. I am still hoping Kaariya will win, let's see.
Just come back to this video and seen that the four biggest points gains since it was made (difference in total points between then and now) are as follows: 1. Finland 14,549 2. France 13,865 3. Austria 13,442 4. Sweden 9,091
Hi there! As always, very interesting video with some good takeaways from it. I just wanted to clear things up on what you said about La Zarra and the French delegation possibly having some sort of beef, as a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding got spread out because of French media. The journalist from "Le Parisien" originally reporting on this had no clue about the reasons why La Zarra couldn't perform at the Amsterdam PreParty, with her team refusing to give any kind of information to protect her well-being. Instead, he straight up assumed there were no reasons at all and it was just her throwing a tantrum and having a bad "diva" behaviour. Sadly, the press jumped on the occasion to shame her, write all sorts of nonsense and even speculate on her Eurovision participation, bringing an online wave of hatred at the same time. Her team later confirmed on Monday that La Zarra had received a call right before the show in Amsterdam, telling her bad news about one of her loved ones' health condition. She tried her best to come up on stage to perform but ultimately couldn't as she was too emotionally drained. As a result, they cancelled her appearances at both concerts so she could rest and digest it. In the meantime, said journalist apologized and wrote another article to explain the truth of what really happened, but unfortunately the harm is already done and can't be reverted. I hope we, as a community, will be able to show her our support and that she is loved. 🫶❤
ah ok im glad to hear that it sounds like there are no problems with her and the delegation. yes its very annoying when these journalists just make up stories from nowhere. i saw that she was getting a lot of hate from an online vote. terrible
Norway has been my favourite from the get go, and Austria my second. It's quite interesting that they've switched places in the ranking, and might be switching places for me a bit too. I'm hoping that Alessandra will pull off something big and new in the real thing to reignite the hype for her song a bit. But I'd be happy if either country won. Thank you for pulling all this data together- very interesting!
Kinda surprised and disappointed Marco Mengoni didn't use the opportunity to perform at the preparties. He's very experienced and really good at singing live.
I’m not sure what his situation is, maybe he already had stuff scheduled? Or maybe he already did that in 2013? But yea I think it’s an amazing opportunity to travel and meet great people so it’s a shame he didn’t do it
I try to not watch the rehearsals / live so that I can be super surprised on the day of the semis / final. This means my ranking pretty much is set. Thank you for your nerdy stats perspective and updates! Will you be going to Liverpool!? I hope I get to actually vote this year while I'm there! Sad about Georgia, it's my biggest grower.
@@Scheherasad I did not know that! I thought I've just been good at avoiding. Oh well! So far this year I've tried to also avoid the pre-party footages. The algorithm has other ideas though.
Thanks for the analysis! I don't think the pre-parties are particularly relevant to the ranking changes. As you said, most of the changes are down to people making first-time rankings on the app; the sort of people like us who pay attention to the pre-parties will have been making their rankings during NF season.
So what this shows us here, is a difference in the preferences of the fan base, compared with the people who are adding their rankings now, who are more likely to be the more casual fans who are only now going through the videos.
That means, I think, that the changes in points added now are actually more relevant, than the absolute totals. Remember that the fan base is a small minority of the people who will pick up their phones to vote for the contest itself. There are always "fan favourites" that fail to match expectations, and I think we can see from your analysis which ones those are. Czech Republic failing to qualify, and Sweden not winning the contest now seem much more likely. Finland and Austria will be the top 2 in the final televote?
I would suggest that you keep a record of the changes you presented here in ranking order of most points gained (i.e. 1 Finland, 2 Austria, 3 Sweden, etc.) and after the contest, see if that is a closer correlation to the final televote result, than the rankings of all the votes. In a similar way to what the likes of YouGov do with opinion polls, this would dilute the fan vote to more accurately match the televote, and therefore, the result. Most people vote for one country only in the televote, rather than ranking all the songs in order, so there will be some discrepancy. But wouldn't it be good to be able to find the best way of predicting the final result by doing something like this (especially if you like a flutter!)
I've finally submitted my rankings on the app! Happy to give Czechia and Georgia a bit of a boost (not just because you mentioned them). As you said, Armenia has come on strong under my radar since I heard it live on Armenian TV with the orchestra and choir. That was breathtaking. Armenia have a habit of excelling live, so this should be no surprise. They're still out of my top 10 based on the studio version though. Fingers crossed for a revamp on Spotify.
I haven't been very active online lately due to having two or three terribly busy weeks, but I took a look at the My Eurovision app this morning and was shocked and surprised by a handful of countries who have really started doing well. I'm SO happy that Belgium have started a small upward trajectory and have slowly been closing down on the countries in front of them. Only 6 or 7 weeks ago, they were 30th, and now they're up to 26th and closing down on 25th. Another favourite of mine (Australia) have closed right down on Germany, their fellow rock rivals! Don't care for the Armenian song, but im so happy to see them climb up in to the top 10, even if it does knock out Israel & Serbia! Such an interesting movement and I'm glad to see you cover it all!
@@ESCTom unfortunately been busy with work, and busy looking after my dad who has Alzheimers. Trying my best to engage as much as i can, but sometimes all I can manage are a few sneaky minutes online before I vanish back to reality. Always give you a thumbs up before I leave, even if I don't get much time to comment!
Hi Tom! Regarding the reasoning about supposedly jury-friendly songs like the Spanish, French, Armenian etc being in the final could be a disadvantage for Loreen in relation to Käärijä: isn't it possible that it's rather the opposite? The jury-friendly songs would squeeze in between Loreen and Käärijä and so increasing the gap?
Haha great minds think alike!!! I was literally thinking about that on the bus just as this video went live. I’m gonna do some more reflecting on it and talk about it in one of my future vids that’s coming up 😊
Surprised (not in a good way) that many pre party performances - for example of Australia and Germany - did not leave any impact. I mean, do Eurofans dislike Rock music? Is it all about female voices and/or dance & party songs? Australia did sooo much great stuff and Lotl at least had one great performance. Georgia really grew on me, loses points, France did nothing great… moves up.. and even Blanka moves up. Why? So my overall response to most of these new numbers is 🤷♀️😂
One of Tom’s previous videos talked about how the Euro-fandom overrates female singers and pop songs, and I also think Finland is probably stealing votes from Australia and Germany. They should do better with the general public though.
@@garryd7748 Yes, that’s possible. Obiviously this fandom has developed something like a „synchronized“ taste. I still hope for some surprises otherwise it would be terribly boring and too predictable.
Well there is quite a big rock/metal audience during Eurovision for sure, if you look at Lordi and Maneskin's results, so I think in the televote the rock fans will vote either Australia or Germany. At least that is what I hope. I love all music but it seems to me not all the younger generation want to hear new thngs are are always listening to the same type of music.
Yeah, exactly. The ESC fandom generally dislikes rock and folk, and they really love generic female pop songs, either if they are in the side of pop-ballad with powerful vocals (extra love if it's from Sweden) or in the side of cheap upbeat dance tracks with choreography. That's why Måneskin wasn't one of the big fan favourites before the show and didn't do well in OGAE poll, neither was Go_A, and also that's why Kalush wasn't a big fan favourite either and many fans complained that their win was just because of the war, and that's why that type of generic female pop songs that the fandom loves always do better in the semi-finals than in the final, where a much broader audience vote. So yeah I do think that Germany and Croatia and maybe Australia will do better than most people expect, but they will need a great performance to really stand out.
@@santiamarincalvoSimple, man go and look at Melfest and her performance. There autotune is strictly forbidden and if you use it you will get kicked out.
This is not because I'm spanish, but I really think you are underrating Spain's chances. By many odds is in 4th position, and from my point of view it is a win contender, just fighting Sweden and Finland. In this odds you talk about, La Zarra is in a better place, although her live performances have been meh! You also said that Blanca Paloma is a black horse, and I honestly thing it is not the label she deserves. Mixing both votes (jury and televoto) by now I'd say it could be: 1.🇫🇮 2.🇸🇪 3.🇪🇦 4.🇦🇲 5.🇦🇹 And the closer is the day the more I think 🇺🇦 doesn't even get top 10
@@hesiole7469 I wouldn't mind the top 3 being "Mother La zarra", "Daddy Karijää" and "Step Mother Blanca".... I think paternal grandmother loreen will be fine in lower top 10....
Tom did you see that Georgia is literally LOSING points???? Not even San Marino is losing points anymore, gagged by that. She lost like 300 points within a day. So Estonia, Latvia and Portugal should all be passing it up soon enough.
Im getting so irritated. Eurovision, from the beginning, was a song-contest that was built on live-performeces with a good voice. Had nothing to do with going into the charts. Just have it this way. Stop listening to the videos, or pre recording. Just watch LIVE, and youll all see, and understand. You go Loreen🥰
To be fairly honest I’m so disappointed, because everyone is bitching about how bed Vesna is doing…but no one talk about UK for example she was also not good in the pre-parties. I like that song as well, along with Moldova and The Netherlands, also Austria. Even tough Austria was doing better than Halo was last time but those vocals and harmonies also need improvement. So over all I don’t like these double standards. But okay it is what it is I still believe that we can crown an underdog winner, and it would be Czechia.
I think the amount of conversation about Vesna vs Mae is to do with Czechia being an early winner for a lot of people (and to me, the song is still a winner, i really do love it). actually my biggest worry with Vesna is not so much their vocals but their staging.. bands can be really tricky to stage in general because you can always end up with some people feeling static in the background, you can work around this by having everyone really dynamic (voyager is a great example) but since MSC's a bit lower tempo and more somber it's harder to get the right energy from the girls who are behind kits. i really, really hope they can figure out something amazing for liverpool because it's one of my favourites.
@@neconeconeco I get this but according to the comments and so more complaint we’re made due it is messy and the vocals are not perfect. First of all, it is a band where there are more singers if you miss just with a nano second it is not sound the same as on the recording. Which is fine by me I think they do really solid job with that if the technical part is there. Staging wise I’m not worrying because they are working on coreografie they posted some things previously on Instagram about it. Also the staging will be done by the same crew who did the staging for We Are Domi which was amazing in my opinion, actually one of the best, it was unfortunate that they came quiet low. Anyway I think also calling as shock non qualifier as also Tom called them in previous videos, i think it is super harsh. I don’t want to sound like a crazy fan here because I’m not just my opinion is that that song is really great and that’s a hard song vocally and also hard to perform. Also if you hear Loreen who everyone is talk about as great vocalist she is also not prefect in terms of vocals also she needs to change the staging as well no one worried about that. So I hope you get my point here.
@@balintkiss3841 i agree that some comment sections are really being way too harsh on our Vesna girls. i think maybe just the bar was really high from the studio version and missing the bar in a number of ways has sort of shaken what seemed like a solid foundation. i think it's a little fair to look at semi 1 with what we have now and worry a bit that Vesna might not resonate with the televote - but again, big emphasis on what we have right now. i think staging will indeed be really important here and getting the chemistry right between the members as well as the tone of the song. it's good to see they're actively working on improving the staging and I think if they bring staging like We Are Domi's we'll be in for a real treat!! in my opinion, Vesna is safer than a shock NQ but only because I actually think Serbia is at more risk :^( i think a key factor is that Loreen is really experienced and even if her vocals aren't for you, she has massive stage presence and confidence. Vesna as a group haven't had the same opportunities yet so it's natural for them to be less comfortable on stage. IMO, Czechia's song is far better than Tattoo in many many ways, which is why its still top 3 for me. i can't speak for everyone but my worry comes from a place of absolute love for the song and a hope that Vesna will get a great result that they can be proud of. i kid you not that I listened to that song on loop for days when it was released. trust me, i want them to do as well as possible
Tbh I'm a bit anxious as a Swede, that if we win. We will get so much hate from many hardcore eurovision fans, but mabey it's just a minority I'm overanlysing. We're just trying to produce music
Tbh i can’t think of a single year where there isn’t haters for the winner. I still see people posting that Salvador was the worst winner in history. Just ignore them and enjoy it if she wins. I’ll be very happy to go back to Sweden again, I really loved the hosting in 2016
I think, Czechia shouldn't be so high and so hyped in the first place. Agree, their studio version and video are quite interesting, but in terms of live performances they are completely disappointing so far. Their singing is quite off, out of sync, inappropriate dance moves, inappropriate clothing (expect something more traditional). Not even in top10 for me.
It almost looks like they don’t have much professional help with their journey to ESC ☹️ Someone should look after those things for them, clothing, choreography etc. It looks like they are complitely on their own and I don’t think that gives them a fair chance.
What do you have against the Käärijä? It's that he has the most entertaining, unique, funny, memorable, surprising, brave and genius song of ESC. Or the fact that he is arguably the most charismatic ESC performer.
@@artoturpeinen5140 i don’t hate him, i overplayed his song cuz i wanted him to win umk 😭he’s a sweet cute guy lmao i just rlly like austria lol. i also think it would be cool for a woman to win twice yk.
if Sweden bring back ABBA next year as special guest seeing as it will be 50 years since they won with Waterloo I might probably vote Loreen just to see this......
Not surprised that Finland is doing well his performance are always great plus he come across in interviews as a sweetheart
I say this in a positive way, your videos feel like lectures for a Eurovision degree!!
😂 📜 👨🏻🎓
Finland has all the winner vibes this year. Imo deserves to win
@@morrybo12 no they will not kill. Just think if kääriä loses cos jury!!! Its not possible. Or there will no jury after this year
Rooting for Finland all the way. 💚
🇫🇮 Cha cha cha is what we need ❤ Post pandemic anthem. Käärijä is iconic and song is banger!
My 🔝 5 are:
🥇 Finland 🇫🇮
🥈 Austria 🇦🇹
🥉 Spain 🇪🇸
4️⃣ Sweden 🇸🇪
5️⃣ France 🇫🇷
I just hope Ireland 🇮🇪 can qualify for the Grand Final. It has been an age since we got through a semifinal. 😬
Brunette's live is just so good ❤ she killed the rap part in preparties and the vocals is so on point 🫶 I like the other version with Kami Friends hope with some armenian instruments in there ( duduk & khanon ) overall I can see her in TOP 3 and she is my winner this year 🇦🇲❤️
She went from 8th to 3rd for me after seeing her live, I looove her now!!
Every day I open the app just to see how Käärijä is catching up on Loreen 8)
You just wait until actual Eurovision! Finland will take the crown!
@@jonathanbrett-warren2031 Hopefully so!
Me too. It surprises me that the distance between both countries is close in the eurovision scoreboard app but in the odds..... you know😔
@@meleeyn I believe the odds are going to change too, especially once we get to the eurovision week. It's safer to bet on Sweden, so that's where the money is at the moment.
@@Sipu97 i hope so!!! I would love to finally see a song in finnish win🥺
You can vote for your own country in this scoreboard app so countries with bigger population can mask aperance of likeability/ranking of their own countries song, its is ussualy the case about members of countries that are at borderline qualification. That just gives them false hope
yes that is true also here you can vote all 37 songs at the same time but we know that there are 2 semi finals and in the final there will be only 26 songs so if your favorite does not qualify its obvious some votes will be different but i think you get the general idea of how each song is going.
omg "its just about me and my pie!!" 8:43
please write Ireland's next entry with this lyric in mind thank you in advance xx
ok lol, im gonna with Eurovision with "Me and my pie 🥧"
@@ESCTom 🎵 me and my pie, me and my pieeeee, it's just about me, me and my pie 🎵
Does anyone recognize this? 😉
People always say: "Tom, this is going too far"
I'm not afraid to change my dreams
Just me and my pie
If Slovenia and Latvia qualify I can die happy. My over the moon scenario would be Finland coming away with the win.
AGREED 100% i think slovenia is definitely qualifying, but latvia has me worried 😭
vote for Käärijä in the SF1! him surprise NQing is the only thing I'm stressing out about in this edition because you just need enough people to think he's going to automatically qualify and not vote for him. he isn't qualified yet so he needs OUR votes in the SF1 so we could bring him to the GF.
In your absolute element here Tom.
Stats and a pie and you're on fire 🔥
And I'm here for it.
Keep up the great work!!
👏👏👍
🥰
I’m so excited for France, my favourite, I truly hope like you, they are able to sort out whatever is going on as it will be an big ashamed with the song they have this year if all goes pear shape, as always I appreciate your great knowledge about the contest
I've said it from the very beginning, Loreen is not the runaway winner everyone thinks she is
Still she has the overall package, that everyone has hard to come even close. It's boring, but true!
Austria also did an acoustic version and the vocals were very very good. That could also be a factor.
thanks for this analysis tom, very interesting🤗
most viewers will listen to the songs for only 1 or 2 times during semis and final. first impressions are the most important ones, so i don't think these ranks by eurofans make any difference
The video I’ve been waiting for💅
After watching the pre parties my love for Czechia's song declined😅 Their vocals just don't live up to the beautiful harmonized studio version.
Yea my gut is that they won’t qualify right now, but hopefully things change with rehearsals 😢
there was a live version before but it was ignored
@@ValS1111 i think a lot of people (myself included) gave them a lot of grace for the extremely low budget and small stage that the Czech NF had. i still think they can pull through and get that same somber / artistic tone that the video gave us but if they come with the vibes from the pre-parties they'll be in trouble
Their pre-party performances has only gotten better for each time. Sound mixing on TV is very different than a live setting. Their sound is difficult to mix with all those voices. I wished they skipped the rap section though…it kind of interrupts the flow of the song too much.
@@neconeconeco yes. At least they performed live unlike Israel representative that avoided the all preparties in fear of possible critisizm.
Hi Tom! Great statistics as always. I have to say my top 5 hasnt changed since my first vote but my top 10 has. Czechia has been really disappointing in the live shows I am really stuck on this one because the studio version is a top 5 for me but live it is out of my top 10. Spain and Cyprus have entered my top 10 (I so wanted to hear Andrew live but I have seen some tik tik videos it seems his voice is quite good), and sadly Norway and Denmark have fallen out of my top 10, Reiley due to his poor live performances and Alessandra I am not hyped about it as I was from the start. I think to win Eurovision you need a song that people can still enjoy after hearing it for a month but it also has to give that big first impact to the audience that hears the song for the first time during the show. I am still hoping Kaariya will win, let's see.
Käärijä ❤
Helsinki 2024🎉🎉🎉
Just come back to this video and seen that the four biggest points gains since it was made (difference in total points between then and now) are as follows:
1. Finland 14,549
2. France 13,865
3. Austria 13,442
4. Sweden 9,091
Hi there! As always, very interesting video with some good takeaways from it. I just wanted to clear things up on what you said about La Zarra and the French delegation possibly having some sort of beef, as a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding got spread out because of French media.
The journalist from "Le Parisien" originally reporting on this had no clue about the reasons why La Zarra couldn't perform at the Amsterdam PreParty, with her team refusing to give any kind of information to protect her well-being. Instead, he straight up assumed there were no reasons at all and it was just her throwing a tantrum and having a bad "diva" behaviour. Sadly, the press jumped on the occasion to shame her, write all sorts of nonsense and even speculate on her Eurovision participation, bringing an online wave of hatred at the same time.
Her team later confirmed on Monday that La Zarra had received a call right before the show in Amsterdam, telling her bad news about one of her loved ones' health condition. She tried her best to come up on stage to perform but ultimately couldn't as she was too emotionally drained. As a result, they cancelled her appearances at both concerts so she could rest and digest it. In the meantime, said journalist apologized and wrote another article to explain the truth of what really happened, but unfortunately the harm is already done and can't be reverted.
I hope we, as a community, will be able to show her our support and that she is loved. 🫶❤
ah ok im glad to hear that it sounds like there are no problems with her and the delegation. yes its very annoying when these journalists just make up stories from nowhere. i saw that she was getting a lot of hate from an online vote. terrible
Norway has been my favourite from the get go, and Austria my second. It's quite interesting that they've switched places in the ranking, and might be switching places for me a bit too. I'm hoping that Alessandra will pull off something big and new in the real thing to reignite the hype for her song a bit. But I'd be happy if either country won. Thank you for pulling all this data together- very interesting!
Kinda surprised and disappointed Marco Mengoni didn't use the opportunity to perform at the preparties. He's very experienced and really good at singing live.
yes I think he missed an opportunity here I am thinking he is not really interested in winning he just wants to partecipate and that's all.
I’m not sure what his situation is, maybe he already had stuff scheduled? Or maybe he already did that in 2013? But yea I think it’s an amazing opportunity to travel and meet great people so it’s a shame he didn’t do it
This might be completely off base, I’ve never met him, but he seems a little “above it all” if you know what I mean
@@WannabeBackbencher
Yea that seems to be the case with many italian eurovision contestants like Blanco last year or Ermal Meta/Fabrizio Moro in 2018.
I try to not watch the rehearsals / live so that I can be super surprised on the day of the semis / final. This means my ranking pretty much is set. Thank you for your nerdy stats perspective and updates! Will you be going to Liverpool!? I hope I get to actually vote this year while I'm there! Sad about Georgia, it's my biggest grower.
where would you see the rehearsals? EBU/ESC does not allow press this year at the rehearsals
@@Scheherasad I did not know that! I thought I've just been good at avoiding. Oh well! So far this year I've tried to also avoid the pre-party footages. The algorithm has other ideas though.
Thanks for the analysis!
I don't think the pre-parties are particularly relevant to the ranking changes. As you said, most of the changes are down to people making first-time rankings on the app; the sort of people like us who pay attention to the pre-parties will have been making their rankings during NF season.
So what this shows us here, is a difference in the preferences of the fan base, compared with the people who are adding their rankings now, who are more likely to be the more casual fans who are only now going through the videos.
That means, I think, that the changes in points added now are actually more relevant, than the absolute totals. Remember that the fan base is a small minority of the people who will pick up their phones to vote for the contest itself. There are always "fan favourites" that fail to match expectations, and I think we can see from your analysis which ones those are. Czech Republic failing to qualify, and Sweden not winning the contest now seem much more likely. Finland and Austria will be the top 2 in the final televote?
I would suggest that you keep a record of the changes you presented here in ranking order of most points gained (i.e. 1 Finland, 2 Austria, 3 Sweden, etc.) and after the contest, see if that is a closer correlation to the final televote result, than the rankings of all the votes. In a similar way to what the likes of YouGov do with opinion polls, this would dilute the fan vote to more accurately match the televote, and therefore, the result.
Most people vote for one country only in the televote, rather than ranking all the songs in order, so there will be some discrepancy. But wouldn't it be good to be able to find the best way of predicting the final result by doing something like this (especially if you like a flutter!)
ok cool, i will do. i have all the numbers for each date i recorded them saved on a spreadsheet so i can check it afterwards
Findland from🇱🇹♥️
I've finally submitted my rankings on the app! Happy to give Czechia and Georgia a bit of a boost (not just because you mentioned them). As you said, Armenia has come on strong under my radar since I heard it live on Armenian TV with the orchestra and choir. That was breathtaking. Armenia have a habit of excelling live, so this should be no surprise. They're still out of my top 10 based on the studio version though. Fingers crossed for a revamp on Spotify.
No comments, it's Great, amazing ❤❤❤❤❤Armenia
Serbia is in top 10!
BRUNETTE is an exceptional Artist! Just watch her career take off!
🚀🚀🚀 & THAT VOICE! ❤❤❤
I haven't been very active online lately due to having two or three terribly busy weeks, but I took a look at the My Eurovision app this morning and was shocked and surprised by a handful of countries who have really started doing well.
I'm SO happy that Belgium have started a small upward trajectory and have slowly been closing down on the countries in front of them.
Only 6 or 7 weeks ago, they were 30th, and now they're up to 26th and closing down on 25th.
Another favourite of mine (Australia) have closed right down on Germany, their fellow rock rivals!
Don't care for the Armenian song, but im so happy to see them climb up in to the top 10, even if it does knock out Israel & Serbia!
Such an interesting movement and I'm glad to see you cover it all!
haaaaay was wondering where you were 😂
fingers crossed for you for both BEL and OZ, hopefully they both make it 🙏🏻
@@ESCTom unfortunately been busy with work, and busy looking after my dad who has Alzheimers. Trying my best to engage as much as i can, but sometimes all I can manage are a few sneaky minutes online before I vanish back to reality. Always give you a thumbs up before I leave, even if I don't get much time to comment!
Hi Tom! Regarding the reasoning about supposedly jury-friendly songs like the Spanish, French, Armenian etc being in the final could be a disadvantage for Loreen in relation to Käärijä: isn't it possible that it's rather the opposite? The jury-friendly songs would squeeze in between Loreen and Käärijä and so increasing the gap?
Haha great minds think alike!!! I was literally thinking about that on the bus just as this video went live. I’m gonna do some more reflecting on it and talk about it in one of my future vids that’s coming up 😊
@@ESCTom Looking forward to that one (and the other ones coming). :)
Surprised (not in a good way) that many pre party performances - for example of Australia and Germany - did not leave any impact.
I mean, do Eurofans dislike Rock music? Is it all about female voices and/or dance & party songs?
Australia did sooo much great stuff and Lotl at least had one great performance. Georgia really grew on me, loses points, France did nothing great… moves up.. and even Blanka moves up. Why? So my overall response to most of these new numbers is 🤷♀️😂
One of Tom’s previous videos talked about how the Euro-fandom overrates female singers and pop songs, and I also think Finland is probably stealing votes from Australia and Germany. They should do better with the general public though.
@@garryd7748 Yes, that’s possible. Obiviously this fandom has developed something like a „synchronized“ taste. I still hope for some surprises otherwise it would be terribly boring and too predictable.
Well there is quite a big rock/metal audience during Eurovision for sure, if you look at Lordi and Maneskin's results, so I think in the televote the rock fans will vote either Australia or Germany. At least that is what I hope. I love all music but it seems to me not all the younger generation want to hear new thngs are are always listening to the same type of music.
Yeah, exactly. The ESC fandom generally dislikes rock and folk, and they really love generic female pop songs, either if they are in the side of pop-ballad with powerful vocals (extra love if it's from Sweden) or in the side of cheap upbeat dance tracks with choreography. That's why Måneskin wasn't one of the big fan favourites before the show and didn't do well in OGAE poll, neither was Go_A, and also that's why Kalush wasn't a big fan favourite either and many fans complained that their win was just because of the war, and that's why that type of generic female pop songs that the fandom loves always do better in the semi-finals than in the final, where a much broader audience vote. So yeah I do think that Germany and Croatia and maybe Australia will do better than most people expect, but they will need a great performance to really stand out.
What are your thoughts about the German live performance on eurovision in concert in Amsterdam?? I thought they performed very good.
they were awesome. super professional, really looking forward to their show in Liverpool
People are realizing that, without the staging, Tattoo can't stand on it's own.
@@evaldk1574 si pero con autotune
How? It's out-streaming every other Eurovision 2023 song. There's no staging on Spotify.
@@evaldk1574 no es verdad
@@santiamarincalvoSimple, man go and look at Melfest and her performance. There autotune is strictly forbidden and if you use it you will get kicked out.
@@lovemeamerica Exactly
I feel gaslight by Cyprus being in the top ten of the fan jury vote thing
Don't let them have power over you
This is not because I'm spanish, but I really think you are underrating Spain's chances. By many odds is in 4th position, and from my point of view it is a win contender, just fighting Sweden and Finland. In this odds you talk about, La Zarra is in a better place, although her live performances have been meh! You also said that Blanca Paloma is a black horse, and I honestly thing it is not the label she deserves. Mixing both votes (jury and televoto) by now I'd say it could be:
1.🇫🇮
2.🇸🇪
3.🇪🇦
4.🇦🇲
5.🇦🇹
And the closer is the day the more I think 🇺🇦 doesn't even get top 10
🇦🇲❤
thanks for this analysis !
Also Slovenia just reached 100,000💖
By the way, have you noticed that France moved from 9th to 7th place in odds in a few days? And that is before rehearsals 😊
I am soo excited ❤
Yeah same this is insaaaaane !!! Just imagine if MOTHER La Zarra wins, that would be tremendous ✨ ( who knows maybe she will slay in Liverpool ;) )
@@hesiole7469 I would not complain as she is my personal winner 😆
Same here 😊
@@hesiole7469 I wouldn't mind the top 3 being "Mother La zarra", "Daddy Karijää" and "Step Mother Blanca".... I think paternal grandmother loreen will be fine in lower top 10....
She's not winning
"Me and my pie" ahahah
Finland ❤ 💪 Vote him, he has deserved it!
what is the name of the app that you're mentionning?
My Eurovision Scoreboard
Tom did you see that Georgia is literally LOSING points???? Not even San Marino is losing points anymore, gagged by that. She lost like 300 points within a day. So Estonia, Latvia and Portugal should all be passing it up soon enough.
yea i dont get why shes lost SO much momentum!
Im getting so irritated. Eurovision, from the beginning, was a song-contest that was built on live-performeces with a good voice. Had nothing to do with going into the charts. Just have it this way. Stop listening to the videos, or pre recording. Just watch LIVE, and youll all see, and understand. You go Loreen🥰
Spain ftw
Meanwhile... in the odds...
🐛
To be fairly honest I’m so disappointed, because everyone is bitching about how bed Vesna is doing…but no one talk about UK for example she was also not good in the pre-parties. I like that song as well, along with Moldova and The Netherlands, also Austria. Even tough Austria was doing better than Halo was last time but those vocals and harmonies also need improvement. So over all I don’t like these double standards. But okay it is what it is I still believe that we can crown an underdog winner, and it would be Czechia.
I think the amount of conversation about Vesna vs Mae is to do with Czechia being an early winner for a lot of people (and to me, the song is still a winner, i really do love it). actually my biggest worry with Vesna is not so much their vocals but their staging.. bands can be really tricky to stage in general because you can always end up with some people feeling static in the background, you can work around this by having everyone really dynamic (voyager is a great example) but since MSC's a bit lower tempo and more somber it's harder to get the right energy from the girls who are behind kits. i really, really hope they can figure out something amazing for liverpool because it's one of my favourites.
@@neconeconeco I get this but according to the comments and so more complaint we’re made due it is messy and the vocals are not perfect. First of all, it is a band where there are more singers if you miss just with a nano second it is not sound the same as on the recording. Which is fine by me I think they do really solid job with that if the technical part is there. Staging wise I’m not worrying because they are working on coreografie they posted some things previously on Instagram about it. Also the staging will be done by the same crew who did the staging for We Are Domi which was amazing in my opinion, actually one of the best, it was unfortunate that they came quiet low. Anyway I think also calling as shock non qualifier as also Tom called them in previous videos, i think it is super harsh. I don’t want to sound like a crazy fan here because I’m not just my opinion is that that song is really great and that’s a hard song vocally and also hard to perform. Also if you hear Loreen who everyone is talk about as great vocalist she is also not prefect in terms of vocals also she needs to change the staging as well no one worried about that. So I hope you get my point here.
@@balintkiss3841 i agree that some comment sections are really being way too harsh on our Vesna girls. i think maybe just the bar was really high from the studio version and missing the bar in a number of ways has sort of shaken what seemed like a solid foundation.
i think it's a little fair to look at semi 1 with what we have now and worry a bit that Vesna might not resonate with the televote - but again, big emphasis on what we have right now. i think staging will indeed be really important here and getting the chemistry right between the members as well as the tone of the song. it's good to see they're actively working on improving the staging and I think if they bring staging like We Are Domi's we'll be in for a real treat!! in my opinion, Vesna is safer than a shock NQ but only because I actually think Serbia is at more risk :^(
i think a key factor is that Loreen is really experienced and even if her vocals aren't for you, she has massive stage presence and confidence. Vesna as a group haven't had the same opportunities yet so it's natural for them to be less comfortable on stage. IMO, Czechia's song is far better than Tattoo in many many ways, which is why its still top 3 for me.
i can't speak for everyone but my worry comes from a place of absolute love for the song and a hope that Vesna will get a great result that they can be proud of. i kid you not that I listened to that song on loop for days when it was released. trust me, i want them to do as well as possible
Croatia in 28th is a joke, a song like that has eurovision written all over it
Maybe 14-15 years ago, not recent Eurovision
Tbh I'm a bit anxious as a Swede, that if we win. We will get so much hate from many hardcore eurovision fans, but mabey it's just a minority I'm overanlysing. We're just trying to produce music
Tbh i can’t think of a single year where there isn’t haters for the winner. I still see people posting that Salvador was the worst winner in history. Just ignore them and enjoy it if she wins. I’ll be very happy to go back to Sweden again, I really loved the hosting in 2016
As a swede I think we have to avoid reading comments all together...
I think, Czechia shouldn't be so high and so hyped in the first place. Agree, their studio version and video are quite interesting, but in terms of live performances they are completely disappointing so far. Their singing is quite off, out of sync, inappropriate dance moves, inappropriate clothing (expect something more traditional). Not even in top10 for me.
It almost looks like they don’t have much professional help with their journey to ESC ☹️ Someone should look after those things for them, clothing, choreography etc. It looks like they are complitely on their own and I don’t think that gives them a fair chance.
I still can not understand the hype with Finlands song, he is just yelling and I don't get the meaning of it, not a winner to me :/
controversial but i hope the jury doesn’t like kaarija and either loreen or austria wins ❤️
What do you have against the Käärijä? It's that he has the most entertaining, unique, funny, memorable, surprising, brave and genius song of ESC. Or the fact that he is arguably the most charismatic ESC performer.
@@artoturpeinen5140 i don’t hate him, i overplayed his song cuz i wanted him to win umk 😭he’s a sweet cute guy lmao i just rlly like austria lol. i also think it would be cool for a woman to win twice yk.
@@mad3l3na OK. I respect your opinion.
Stockholm 2024
Malmö 2024, not Stockholm.. We have already been there 2016
if Sweden bring back ABBA next year as special guest seeing as it will be 50 years since they won with Waterloo I might probably vote Loreen just to see this......
@@johnny11415 it would be epic
Would it be in Stockholm again? Not Goteborg?
No Please. Too cold 🥶😅
Unicorn is the most unique... The rest is so mehhh...I go Noa this year!!!
It's like any other generic song hahaha. The only good thing is the dance break
Unicorn the most unique one? It's literally a rehas of every Eurovision cliché in one song. 😂
Yeah, it do unique so She avoided all preparties. Is it the Only song that we didnt see/hear live performance?
My personal top 5
1) France 🇫🇷
2) Israel 🇮🇱
3) Sweden 🇸🇪
4) UK 🇬🇧
5) Cyprus 🇨🇾
#1. Armenia 🇦🇲