So... when did you last spend the weekend guessing the weight of oxen? Don't forget to check out a huge range of fantastic courses with a free trial at ow.ly/LhQV30r8uEv
This somewhat correlates with the whole idea that just ONE negative statement or ideas (we can say “One negative Yelp/Google/YP Review”) will heavily put way One HUNDRED POSITIVE statements or ideas. For whatever reason, humans are much more susceptible to believing & intently listening to the negative, even cynical ideas; and even come pleat falsehoods & fallacies no matter HOW fantastical it may be. We are more gullible than most want to believe. So, they CHOOSE to be ignorant, about it…hence this concept ITSELF. It’s a vicious cycle, this is. It’s based on “hope” - if not even “faith”, “desires”, etc - the world & potentially supernatural has more to offer than is really there. It could even be attributed to some level of EGO due to obsessing over the concept of “standing out from the crowd”, to be different, all just to try to show they are SMARTER & even more INTELLIGENT. They need some feelings of self-worth (more on that, in a second). Everyone wants individuality….even though they are listening to OTHER people, including GROUPS of people. I mean…these LITERALLY go against the definition of “Individual” ITSELF! Back on that “self worth” deal, which makes this whole thing come full circle - hence my somewhat sidetracking, after first mentioning what I’m about say say. Negativity. We listen to negativity because, for whatEVER reason, we feel the needs to PUT others DOWN…..to feel more self-worth. If someone ELSE fails, even if YOU have not succeeded (“you” being utilized in the general sense, not you individually & directly. My apologies, for seeming malicious or aggressive….[AHEM!!]…or ….NEGATIVE. Lol! Sorry…I had to do it. But, it is also true, being an example within itself, as WELL), then it stands to reason you’d feel “Better than them”. This COULD be attributed to “Survival of the Fittest”, passing on your Genes in your DNA, and Natural Selection. This is just a simple fact, and simple animalistic nature we have deep within us. It’s subconscious. The whole IDEA is the survival of the SPECIES more than anything else. To DO so, the best genes must be passed on….to “weed out” the worst genes, that cause us to be more vulnerable to death. So, naturally…most believe their OWN gene pool IS the best. It just had to be, for the betterment of the human species (I really don’t like “Human RACE”. No…we are a SPECIES, various races mixed within). This is to, obviously, “advertise” one’s own worth to our survival…or, as another perspective & way of generalizing this…to put DOWN the others. It is an attempt to convince even MORE people, to not be attracted to that individual. Think of it, on a basic scale, of a young woman seeking her best “Suitor”. A Man who can provide, for her…meaning she has a better chance of SURVIVING. And…that’s the entire idea. I’ve gone on enough here. So, I will try to just jump to my concluding statement(s) here. Lol! My apologies, for having such a lengthy & wordy reply…for such a “simple” context & premise. Okay….do, just wanted to end with this question, to ya: Just how MANY people have you seen or heard say “I’m so ‘WOKE’!” or “ I’m ‘Woke’, as FUCK!!” or anything to those effects, the last I don’t know…10 years or so(??)?? I’m willing to bet it’s quite a damn BIT. Lol! Yet, two people who BOTH calms to be “Woke as FUCK!” are on COMPLETELY different sides of any subject’s discussion & debate. How can that BE??? They LITERALLY believe the compete OPPOSITE of one another, in every single way. So, my follow-up question is simply: How can BOTH be “Woke”, if they don’t even believe the same thing? That’s impossible! Are Blue & Orange, Yellow & Purple, or Red & Green the same thing?! NOPE! They are, in FACT, complete OPPOSITES! (These are your 3 main complimentary colors. Yes, these 3 combinations stand out far-&-above any other color combinations. It’s a true FACT. I am a professional artist & study a lot of psychology). But…complimentary colors ARE that way Bc they are complete OPPOSITES, on the Color Wheel. Look one up, & even the concept of this, and you will find I am correct. Lol! Anyway…so…yeah. There ya go. lol! Again…my bad.
We have all seen this play out on the world stage and many of us unfortunately have seen it play out on the smaller stage of our own lives … over and over and over …
@@clairebeane3455 hey girl! We keep bumping into each other on different channels! You clearly have fantastic taste in YT content!😁👍 As for the serious comment… Yeah, social media has been both a blessing and huge curse on society as a whole. On the one hand, it makes it nearly impossible for very important information to be entirely snuffed out/suppressed from the public and the elites no longer have full control over the “nightly news” narratives…. However, it also makes it incredibly easy for those same corrupt elites to “muddy the waters” so severely with misinformation and disinformation-that it can legitimately take several hours to source/fact check a single article! (Which they know 99% of people don’t have the time, patience, nor desire to do😔). Weird times we live in. Weird times indeed.
If you're interested in learning, or even just curious, thoughty 2 is probably the most reliable source in this media today. His mustache is great, but his commentary is even better.
1st Title : How a crowd can predict the stock market 2nd Title: Is a crowd smarter than 1 genius 3rd Title: can you guess how much this Ox weigh 4th Title: How to weigh an ox by looking at it 5th Title: You already know the weight of this Ox. Here's how. 6th Title: The truth behind the 'Wisdom of the crowd' 7th Title: How powerful is the wisdom of crowd? 8th title: Can you guess how much this Ox weighs? 9th title: Why crowds are much smarter than you think 10th title: How a crowd can predict almost anything 11th title: What happened to these people at the 1906 Plymouth fair? Current title: NVM I stopped keeping track 🤣🤣🤣
I've seen him do this a lot, on his video about picky eaters there was an insect picture, then the smelting candy videos were popular and it changed to that.
"Nothing is more disgusting than the majority: because it consists of a few powerful predecessors, of rogues who adapt themselves, of weak who assimilate themselves, and the masses who imitate without knowing at all what they want." - Goethe
That quote very very much applies to the exploitation of the weakness of the entire horde. :( The conditions explained by thoughty2 pretty much requires no ill intent, a lot of faith in other humans, and a lot of courage to reset our consciousness. Else, the horde is a source of all things malevolent. :(
The British army taught me to rangefind by asking each person how far away the target is and taking an average to be damn close. The more people, the more accurate the range. It works for the time as well ;)
Crowds are only good for labor value. Intelligence is peak in the individual who understands self. That's why thousands of 'smart' scientists in 2020 still are studying what Einstein came up with decades ago.
The comment section is located right under a 18minute video that might/will influence the results. You will need to filter out those who have watched the video before commenting to come up with meaning full results.
Absolutely fascinating! I seriously could binge watch your videos all day. My husband is a behavioral phycology professor and I’m constantly telling him about your videos. Please don’t stop!! 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
I decided to get my daily dose of Arran very early today. It's only 8.25 AM here on Australia's beautiful Gold Coast and I've started my day learning 🙂
Guys look at this wisdomofthecrowd.co.uk/ predict the football score and let the power and 'wisdom of the crowd' reveal the score at 14:00 on Saturday, 1 hour before kick-off - We believe if it's an unknown match (league 2) and no outside influence, then we the collective crowd can accurately predict the score or at least predict which team gets the Win, Loss or Draw.
I love how he works in his ads/sponsors so seamlessly into his videos. I can’t stop laughing as he’s talking about something and then relates it to a game, course etc without missing a beat.
The one thing wrong with this video: IT ENDS. Really, the place where it ends sounds like he could've gone on for another 10 mins. Basically, it ends right when it starts getting good.
Reminds me of Enrico Fermi's technique of estimating when there is insufficient data. He once asked, "How many piano tuners does Chicago have?" Based on some reasonable guesses, the answer was close to the actual number. The idea is that your guesses are likely to be off, but some will be too high, others too low. To some extent they'll cancel out and your final estimate is likely to be at least reasonably close.
Hey, great videos as always T2. Looks like you're on a rather phycological tour. Would you consider taking a dive into the DSM-IV and having a comparative look at borderline personality disorder, schizophrenia, disassociative personality disorder, PTSD, or any of the top five most confusing for PHD's to diagnose?
So why hasn't this "Wisdom of The Crowd" been used to find Malasia Flight 370? Just substitute numbers for coordinates. But my gut instinct tells me it somehow won't work...I mean if it did they would've tried it right? Conspiracies aside, I need an answer.
all these 'proofs' of common knowlage valid only with guesses compared to expert opinion. they tend to spread along a trendline. if there is no trendline, like in the case of the Malaysian flight where the options are skattered in 360 degree this doesnt work. it works around normal distribution amd the channel of common knowlage
13:37 "A homogeneous crowd, even made up of experts, leads to [less accurate results]. We saw this in action [...] when sir Francis Galton found that the diverse crowd [...] did a better job [...] than the individual experts amongst them" Objection, your Mustacheness!! All we saw in your vid was that the crowd's combined guess was better than that of each _individual_ expert. Nowhere did we see whether the crowd's combined guess was actually better or no than the guess of _all experts combined_ So no, we did *not* see this in action I rest my case.
While I dont think this isolated incident proves that this is always the case we do see it in this example. If A) the average of the crowd votes came out to be within 1% of the correct number and B) if the crowd average was better than every single individual expert vote: Then no expert vote was within 1% of the correct answer That means even if every expert voted within 1.1% accuracy their average (1.1%) would still be worse than the crowds overall 1%
@@iam3gion204 the guess of _each individual _*_non-expert_* was (most likely) worse than the guess of of each individual expert. Only the _combination_ of the crowd was better than each individual expert, because the too high and the too low guesses cancelled each other out (as explained at 7:55) in an *average* within 1% Example: let's simplify things for a thought experiment and say there are 6 people at the fair. 2 experts (ex1 and ex2) and 4 non-experts (ne1, ne2, ne3 and ne4). The weight of the ox is *3030* pounds The guesses: ne1 - 4000 pounds ne2 - 1000 pounds ne3 - 2000 pounds ne4 - 5000 pounds ex1 - 3535 pounds ex2 - 2535 pounds Then the average of the crowd is 18070/6 = *3011⅔* pounds -> it's within 1% of the actual weight *and* it's closer than the guess of each _individual_ expert However! The _average_ of the experts is 6070/2 = *3035* pounds - *which is **_better_** than the crowd average of 3011⅔* This simplified example can be extended to a larger crowd and thusly showcases that the case of the Plymouth Fair does definitely *not* show that the crowd average is better than the average of a group of experts (Given, the Plymouth case doesn't show that the expert average is better than the crowd average either, but that claim isn't made anywhere. The only thing I'm trying to point out is that the Plymouth case does not display the claim that is made in the video)
@@kloassie it doesn't, but to play devils advocate here, we also can't state the opposite (if the collective expert opinion was on average better than the mass), as we simply don't have this data (at least not from this video)
@@hillferrari if you read my reply to Patrick, then you see that I am fully aware of that. The point is: the opposite claim isn't made in the video and hence I'm not arguing (neither pro nor against) about that in my post. The claim that is made in the video is that the Plymouth case shows that _the complete/uneducated group's average is better than the educated group's average_ . And what I'm saying is that that claim is incorrect. The Plymouth case does not show that, regardless whether the crowd's average actually _was_ better or no than the expert average
*Matt.7:* 13“Enter through the narrow gate. For wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to destruction, and many enter through it. 14But small is the gate and narrow the road that leads to life, and only a few find it.
whilst on simple tasks like guessing a weight corwds are more accurate than most people, on more complex matters they are nearly always off. The masses are tending to get average results, which, when guessing, is often right, the individual holds the power of outperforming them. That's why masses get decent results, but masses lead by an intelligent individual hit the ball out of the park
Unlikely. Suspect shorts or boxer briefs. If Thoughty2 is a tighty whitey guy, I'd be disappointed. This presentation was also a disappointment. Will have to take the under on this bet.
Been watching you for years but thought you stopped posting. Turns out RUclips unsubscribed me. Glad to see you again. I'll have to watch your archives to find when you switched from clean cut suit to 1850s farm hand ;)
I don't understand why this isn't your most viewed video. It's the best insight you've taught me. We need direct democracy, where everyone gets a vote on things.
Alternate title: *What if we all used 100% of our brain together simultaneously?* EDIT: Why don't we/they try to find Malaysian Airlines 370 by using Wisdom of the Crowd?
If I'm asked to take that survey, understand that I'm going to find an adequate map and throw darts at it until I land one somewhere in the Pacific, and that will be my guess. ;o)
There's a saying in China: "三个臭皮匠顶个诸葛亮." which basically means "Three Fools Are Wiser Than a Sage." and more often than not, I agree with that sentiment. Edit: I believe this ancient proverb was meant to show how it is almost always good to seek knowledge from many different people, rather than to study under one master.
Diversity of things like race, creed, culture, ability, nationality, orientation and identity inherently carry with it a difference of perspective and way of thinking.
I used this method when I was in 4th grade. My teacher had a jar of jellybeans she asked the class to guess how many were in it I went around asking my classmates for their guess I calculated the mean turned in the answer and to my surprise I was the closest with my answer being 673 and the correct amount 709. I won but my stomach lost...ALL OF THEM
What a fascinating topic!!! You guys do a great cross section of topics. So well researched!!!! Great channel!!!! And the narrator!!!! That guy's got a ton of that cool charisma!!! Nice work!!!
Collective vs. the individual... I was intrigued. Even kept my eyes off my own work to watch this. (No worries, I was roughly a week ahead.) A moment away helped me breathe. Thank you.
i can not be avoided that the wisdom of the crowd is far better that you can achieve alone but the same happens when one thing goes wrong and it can be avoided with a few simple steps! like 1.questioning before being influenced. 2.Know who you should hangout with, but never choose only to hangout with those who you share the same skills or mindset because your learning will be limited . 4.think and lay down points to backup your opinions 5.survive with the crowd but never lose the tactics to survive alone, in other words many have fallen and held back just because they are too afraid to be a lone wolf.
Thoughty2: There is intelligence in diversity radical left: You see, you alt right nazis? rightwing: Can I talk now? radical left: no. Your kind of diversity is unwanted.
Kacper Seltenreic, now how many people who live in Britain or almost anywhere in North America South America would know that? Thank you for sharing the correct pronunciation, but do you have to be a douche?
Same, this is starting to be a disturbing trend. Seen it a few times now and I find it highly manipulative and disingenuous. Makes me distrust the creator in general. Which is a shame as it's only from creators I like that I've seen doing this, why else would I be there so early.
Not to correct you O Great One, but it is "pot latch" dinner. Pot luck is a bird hunters term. It means that your hunt was lucky, and you have something for the pot that night. Pot Latch is a term from covered pots brought to a dinner party or other social event (common in early USA community dances and such). These pot were heavy cast iron, and had a hinged cover that you "latched" for moving the pot safely. Don't make this mistake again! Great videos!
It's weird seeing my home city on one of your videos. I thought you meant Plymouth in America until I saw Mount Edgecumb and Drake's Island. Keep up the good work!!!
The wisest thing that should be on every wise individuals list is to invest in different stream of income that don't depend on the government to bring money especially now the pandemic is hitting economy pretty hard .
@William A. Jones Wow that's great, I thought I'm the only one that knows him , Mr Kevin has been successfully managing my trading account for a very long time without any complain whatsoever till date
Have you done one on left-handed people and the ‘idea’ that they more intelligent and also shunned in earlier years? And just how they have basically adapted to just living in a right-handed society. So many examples! That would be cool!
Sir, you had the best channel on RUclips. Bar none. Thoroughly been enjoying your videos for the last month or so! I totally appreciate your insight and vast knowledge base.
3:02 I don’t know why, but this stock footage makes me ridiculously happy. .. maybe it’s the guy’s perfectly matching hair, eyebrows and beard? I dunno.🤔😆
So... when did you last spend the weekend guessing the weight of oxen? Don't forget to check out a huge range of fantastic courses with a free trial at ow.ly/LhQV30r8uEv
Brother. Can you do a fresh video on lucid dreaming?
Totally misleading title dude, I’ve watched several of your videos now with each and everyone having been misleading.
Done with that
Man, you suck at spelling polish surnames.
Can you do a vid on interviews for jobs or top universities- the hardest and unusual questions
Can you do a video about
the unexplained mystery of RUclips video titles changing 4 times within the first hour of upload?🙂
For those wondering, the ox was 1,198 lbs. 🙂
And the average of the crowd guesses was 1,197 lbs.
@DarkEchoes OMG Thank you my friend a thousand times thank you. You are a hero a real pillar of men.my good fortune find you well
Exactly what I was wondering, thanks!
Very inter-stating!
Well I would have said it’s gotta be more than 3
That would mean the guess was within 0.1% I wonder why he said 1.0%
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." - George Carlin
stupid people in large groups are still stupid tho
@@Joseph-yd3sq that was the point Carlin was making. I guess you'd have to know his brand of comedy to get it.
@@nturavrgchick6055 yeah, quote was off context
god, i miss that man and his wisdom.
Ahhhh 70s Carlin, before he became a dottering tool
My dad would often tell us to *”never underestimate the power of a loud fool”* ....and now I fully understand and appreciate those wise words. 😆❤️
This somewhat correlates with the whole idea that just ONE negative statement or ideas (we can say “One negative Yelp/Google/YP Review”) will heavily put way One HUNDRED POSITIVE statements or ideas.
For whatever reason, humans are much more susceptible to believing & intently listening to the negative, even cynical ideas; and even come pleat falsehoods & fallacies no matter HOW fantastical it may be. We are more gullible than most want to believe. So, they CHOOSE to be ignorant, about it…hence this concept ITSELF. It’s a vicious cycle, this is. It’s based on “hope” - if not even “faith”, “desires”, etc - the world & potentially supernatural has more to offer than is really there.
It could even be attributed to some level of EGO due to obsessing over the concept of “standing out from the crowd”, to be different, all just to try to show they are SMARTER & even more INTELLIGENT. They need some feelings of self-worth (more on that, in a second). Everyone wants individuality….even though they are listening to OTHER people, including GROUPS of people. I mean…these LITERALLY go against the definition of “Individual” ITSELF!
Back on that “self worth” deal, which makes this whole thing come full circle - hence my somewhat sidetracking, after first mentioning what I’m about say say.
Negativity. We listen to negativity because, for whatEVER reason, we feel the needs to PUT others DOWN…..to feel more self-worth. If someone ELSE fails, even if YOU have not succeeded (“you” being utilized in the general sense, not you individually & directly. My apologies, for seeming malicious or aggressive….[AHEM!!]…or ….NEGATIVE. Lol! Sorry…I had to do it. But, it is also true, being an example within itself, as WELL), then it stands to reason you’d feel “Better than them”.
This COULD be attributed to “Survival of the Fittest”, passing on your Genes in your DNA, and Natural Selection. This is just a simple fact, and simple animalistic nature we have deep within us. It’s subconscious.
The whole IDEA is the survival of the SPECIES more than anything else. To DO so, the best genes must be passed on….to “weed out” the worst genes, that cause us to be more vulnerable to death. So, naturally…most believe their OWN gene pool IS the best. It just had to be, for the betterment of the human species (I really don’t like “Human RACE”. No…we are a SPECIES, various races mixed within). This is to, obviously, “advertise” one’s own worth to our survival…or, as another perspective & way of generalizing this…to put DOWN the others. It is an attempt to convince even MORE people, to not be attracted to that individual.
Think of it, on a basic scale, of a young woman seeking her best “Suitor”. A Man who can provide, for her…meaning she has a better chance of SURVIVING. And…that’s the entire idea.
I’ve gone on enough here. So, I will try to just jump to my concluding statement(s) here. Lol! My apologies, for having such a lengthy & wordy reply…for such a “simple” context & premise.
Okay….do, just wanted to end with this question, to ya:
Just how MANY people have you seen or heard say “I’m so ‘WOKE’!” or “ I’m ‘Woke’, as FUCK!!” or anything to those effects, the last I don’t know…10 years or so(??)??
I’m willing to bet it’s quite a damn BIT. Lol! Yet, two people who BOTH calms to be “Woke as FUCK!” are on COMPLETELY different sides of any subject’s discussion & debate. How can that BE??? They LITERALLY believe the compete OPPOSITE of one another, in every single way.
So, my follow-up question is simply:
How can BOTH be “Woke”, if they don’t even believe the same thing? That’s impossible!
Are Blue & Orange, Yellow & Purple, or Red & Green the same thing?! NOPE! They are, in FACT, complete OPPOSITES! (These are your 3 main complimentary colors. Yes, these 3 combinations stand out far-&-above any other color combinations. It’s a true FACT. I am a professional artist & study a lot of psychology). But…complimentary colors ARE that way Bc they are complete OPPOSITES, on the Color Wheel. Look one up, & even the concept of this, and you will find I am correct. Lol!
Anyway…so…yeah. There ya go. lol! Again…my bad.
We have all seen this play out on the world stage and many of us unfortunately have seen it play out on the smaller stage of our own lives … over and over and over …
Your dad is wise :)
@@clairebeane3455 hey girl! We keep bumping into each other on different channels! You clearly have fantastic taste in YT content!😁👍
As for the serious comment…
Yeah, social media has been both a blessing and huge curse on society as a whole.
On the one hand, it makes it nearly impossible for very important information to be entirely snuffed out/suppressed from the public and the elites no longer have full control over the “nightly news” narratives….
However, it also makes it incredibly easy for those same corrupt elites to “muddy the waters” so severely with misinformation and disinformation-that it can legitimately take several hours to source/fact check a single article! (Which they know 99% of people don’t have the time, patience, nor desire to do😔).
Weird times we live in.
Weird times indeed.
@@asarishepard8171 thanks! I think he is! ☺️
"Not all crowds are created equal." I'm so glad he said that! 😂
If you're interested in learning, or even just curious, thoughty 2 is probably the most reliable source in this media today. His mustache is great, but his commentary is even better.
1st Title : How a crowd can predict the stock market
2nd Title: Is a crowd smarter than 1 genius
3rd Title: can you guess how much this Ox weigh
4th Title: How to weigh an ox by looking at it
5th Title: You already know the weight of this Ox. Here's how.
6th Title: The truth behind the 'Wisdom of the crowd'
7th Title: How powerful is the wisdom of crowd?
8th title: Can you guess how much this Ox weighs?
9th title: Why crowds are much smarter than you think
10th title: How a crowd can predict almost anything
11th title: What happened to these people at the 1906 Plymouth fair?
Current title: NVM I stopped keeping track
🤣🤣🤣
I Saw it titled as "can you Guess how much this ox weigh?." 😂😂
"How to weigh an ox by looking at it" 20 56 london time
5How to weigh an ox just by looking at it,
6You already know the weight of this ox
"The Truth Behind 'The Wisdom of the Crowd'"
How Powerful Is The "Wisdom Of The Crowd"?
Title was "Is a crowd smarter than 1 genius" lol
@KtotheD85 How rude. He's seeing how the analytics do for multiple titles and picking the most successful. You seem to be the only troll here.
also: "How a Crowd Can Predict The Stock Market"
I've seen him do this a lot, on his video about picky eaters there was an insect picture, then the smelting candy videos were popular and it changed to that.
Its changed 3 times
@@Leogrooo I caught that to
"Nothing is more disgusting than the majority: because it consists of a few powerful predecessors, of rogues who adapt themselves, of weak who assimilate themselves, and the masses who imitate without knowing at all what they want." - Goethe
I'll treasure those words. Thank you. A great summary of the human condition. So apt for current woes...
wait that´s literally what Hitler wrote in Mein Kampf
@@Lenn869 He was just reiterating Goethe....a fellow German ..........I know Hitler was an Austrian but it was all once the Austro/Prussia.
@Brandon Neifert wait what hitler was inspired by the guy who wrote the story that inspired the portrait of dorian grey.... Shit.
That quote very very much applies to the exploitation of the weakness of the entire horde. :( The conditions explained by thoughty2 pretty much requires no ill intent, a lot of faith in other humans, and a lot of courage to reset our consciousness. Else, the horde is a source of all things malevolent. :(
The British army taught me to rangefind by asking each person how far away the target is and taking an average to be damn close. The more people, the more accurate the range. It works for the time as well ;)
WOW !
“You will find all types of people, at the fair, from royalty to mouth breathing fornicators on the teacups..”
That escalated quickly..
Lol
"Feeling all smug, about beeing an accountant" LOL
I already know the weight of the ox just by looking at it...
Heavy
Can a Crowd Be Smarter Than a Single Genius?
Well, just look at this comment section...
Yes
Crowds are only good for labor value. Intelligence is peak in the individual who understands self. That's why thousands of 'smart' scientists in 2020 still are studying what Einstein came up with decades ago.
The comment section is located right under a 18minute video that might/will influence the results.
You will need to filter out those who have watched the video before commenting to come up with meaning full results.
Half of all people are below average intelligence. 🤓
@@coldbear8538 Most people don't understand the difference between average and median.
Absolutely fascinating! I seriously could binge watch your videos all day. My husband is a behavioral phycology professor and I’m constantly telling him about your videos. Please don’t stop!! 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
The singing of a crowd is another good example
What makes this difficult in today’s society is being blasted by fear 24/7 via every media outlet.
The propaganda outlets are doing their job very well.
*I WANT THOUGHTY2: THE MOVIE* 10/10
Yes
I'd buy that for a dollar 🤑
Don't you mean ten out of two?
@@mursuhillo242 40/2
@@fenn_fren Fought that twoo, fweller.
Can a Crowd Be Smarter Than a Single Genius?
Not at this time.
Absolutely not.
😖Damn them snowflakes
Not if it's an American crowd. :)-
Not if they're conservatives, no
@the Emperor of man It Truly is a 'Sad-State' of affairs.
I decided to get my daily dose of Arran very early today. It's only 8.25 AM here on Australia's beautiful Gold Coast and I've started my day learning 🙂
Repeat after me, "We are all individuals!" 😂
Also, 12 Angry Men is a brilliant movie. 👍 Nice vid, Thoughty. 👍
Current title: "How a crowd can predict the stock market." Let's see how long that lasts.
only 20 minutes
Mannn that was at least 2 titles ago... Lol
A crowd (very large crowd, albeit) does determine the stock market, technically speaking.
The stock market is a crowd
Guys look at this wisdomofthecrowd.co.uk/ predict the football score and let the power and 'wisdom of the crowd' reveal the score at 14:00 on Saturday, 1 hour before kick-off - We believe if it's an unknown match (league 2) and no outside influence, then we the collective crowd can accurately predict the score or at least predict which team gets the Win, Loss or Draw.
Current title: “How Powerful is the Wisdom of the Crowd?”
Without watching the video, "Stupidity concentrates in a crowd" is the correct formula.
That's the one I clicked on. I would have ignored the current one (Can You Guess How Much This Ox Weighs?). Just doesn't seem as interesting.
@@Jrelli Me too
How wise is the power of the crowd?
haha now its There Was a Secret Science Experiment at the 1906 Plymout Fair
“He had a superb pair of mutton chops”
*Mutton chops start glowing*
I love how he works in his ads/sponsors so seamlessly into his videos. I can’t stop laughing as he’s talking about something and then relates it to a game, course etc without missing a beat.
The one thing wrong with this video: IT ENDS.
Really, the place where it ends sounds like he could've gone on for another 10 mins.
Basically, it ends right when it starts getting good.
9:27 The tilde in the name "Pinã" is on top of the wrong character. It should be "Piña".
Also, he misspelled "Plymouth" in the title.
"What do we do with witches?
"Burn them!"
"What do we burn besides witches?"
"More witches!" Lol
Lol
-Monty Pyrhon and the Holy Grail
LeAnne Brammann so early in the morning
Now raise your hand in solidarity against the witches or we'll burn you too...
"How do we tell she's made of wood?"
"Build a bridge out of her!"
Adius Darkstone “ahh but can you not also make bridges out of stone?”
Who else wants to hear the following question on a game show:
'What is the air speed velocity of an unladen swallow?'
Here before he changes the title and here before all other people say "here before he changes the title"
He changed the thumbnail too
whats the title before?
@Orville Alexander I don't know but it seems to be working
@@япростоигрок-к6щ something like 'can 1 man be smarter than 2000 people'
Reminds me of Enrico Fermi's technique of estimating when there is insufficient data. He once asked, "How many piano tuners does Chicago have?" Based on some reasonable guesses, the answer was close to the actual number.
The idea is that your guesses are likely to be off, but some will be too high, others too low. To some extent they'll cancel out and your final estimate is likely to be at least reasonably close.
Really great video! Thank you. Also my copy of your book arrived from Unbound. Very much looking forward to getting started on that.
" The crowd can't be smart if no one is smart "
-Me 2020
Not bad
lmao good quote
Actually no.
As long as a crow doesn't contain utter idiots, they don't need geniuses.
Why
@@iBMcFly Because
Love your content! You keep me entertained during this pandemic. Thank you!
Hey, great videos as always T2. Looks like you're on a rather phycological tour. Would you consider taking a dive into the DSM-IV and having a comparative look at borderline personality disorder, schizophrenia, disassociative personality disorder, PTSD, or any of the top five most confusing for PHD's to diagnose?
This is really one of the best and interesting videos I've seen from your channel.
I think the best part of this whole video was the skeptical old lady shaking her head in skeptic disapproval haha 😂
7:03. After this scene a McDonalds commercial came on. 😂
Crystal Kitty Kat mine had no McDonalds ads
Jeff Oliver that was my point!!!!
"I love democracy" - crowd
“I love democracy” - the senate
"I AM Democracy" - China
The crowd also liked Hitler.
@@Tim4196 And Stalin
@Dick Samson I'd rather smart, wealthy people run the country than starve with some commi running it.
The dislikes are from the experts
The dislikes are from people who are tired to see the clickbait titles.
@@Okurka. Oh yes
So why hasn't this "Wisdom of The Crowd" been used to find Malasia Flight 370? Just substitute numbers for coordinates. But my gut instinct tells me it somehow won't work...I mean if it did they would've tried it right? Conspiracies aside, I need an answer.
all these 'proofs' of common knowlage valid only with guesses compared to expert opinion. they tend to spread along a trendline. if there is no trendline, like in the case of the Malaysian flight where the options are skattered in 360 degree this doesnt work. it works around normal distribution amd the channel of common knowlage
Your a lad mate. Probably the only bloke in the whole generation that actually deserves and has purpose for the moustache.
I respect this channel so much that its the only one were I don't skip ads.
I’m not sure why you do respect Thoughty2 so much.
Does it negatively impact thoughty? I'll stop skipping if it puts more in his pocket.
@@lukethompson5825 if you don't skip it puts a lot more in his pocket 😁
Let's make this man rich
13:37 "A homogeneous crowd, even made up of experts, leads to [less accurate results]. We saw this in action [...] when sir Francis Galton found that the diverse crowd [...] did a better job [...] than the individual experts amongst them"
Objection, your Mustacheness!!
All we saw in your vid was that the crowd's combined guess was better than that of each _individual_ expert. Nowhere did we see whether the crowd's combined guess was actually better or no than the guess of _all experts combined_
So no, we did *not* see this in action
I rest my case.
While I dont think this isolated incident proves that this is always the case we do see it in this example.
If
A) the average of the crowd votes came out to be within 1% of the correct number and
B) if the crowd average was better than every single individual expert vote:
Then no expert vote was within 1% of the correct answer
That means even if every expert voted within 1.1% accuracy their average (1.1%) would still be worse than the crowds overall 1%
@@iam3gion204 Thats absolute bollocks, as opposite false guesses negate themselves. OP's original case stands.
@@iam3gion204 the guess of _each individual _*_non-expert_* was (most likely) worse than the guess of of each individual expert. Only the _combination_ of the crowd was better than each individual expert, because the too high and the too low guesses cancelled each other out (as explained at 7:55) in an *average* within 1%
Example: let's simplify things for a thought experiment and say there are 6 people at the fair. 2 experts (ex1 and ex2) and 4 non-experts (ne1, ne2, ne3 and ne4). The weight of the ox is *3030* pounds
The guesses:
ne1 - 4000 pounds
ne2 - 1000 pounds
ne3 - 2000 pounds
ne4 - 5000 pounds
ex1 - 3535 pounds
ex2 - 2535 pounds
Then the average of the crowd is 18070/6 = *3011⅔* pounds -> it's within 1% of the actual weight *and* it's closer than the guess of each _individual_ expert
However! The _average_ of the experts is 6070/2 = *3035* pounds - *which is **_better_** than the crowd average of 3011⅔*
This simplified example can be extended to a larger crowd and thusly showcases that the case of the Plymouth Fair does definitely *not* show that the crowd average is better than the average of a group of experts
(Given, the Plymouth case doesn't show that the expert average is better than the crowd average either, but that claim isn't made anywhere. The only thing I'm trying to point out is that the Plymouth case does not display the claim that is made in the video)
@@kloassie it doesn't, but to play devils advocate here, we also can't state the opposite (if the collective expert opinion was on average better than the mass), as we simply don't have this data (at least not from this video)
@@hillferrari if you read my reply to Patrick, then you see that I am fully aware of that. The point is: the opposite claim isn't made in the video and hence I'm not arguing (neither pro nor against) about that in my post. The claim that is made in the video is that the Plymouth case shows that _the complete/uneducated group's average is better than the educated group's average_ . And what I'm saying is that that claim is incorrect. The Plymouth case does not show that, regardless whether the crowd's average actually _was_ better or no than the expert average
Anyone who sees this i hope you have an amazing day much love from Sacramento California
There's still people living in california?
Post-Riot-alyptic California?
@@googleuser9383 yep I'm in San Diego.... We have fire, and good vibes.
Much love sac town and the rest of the world too!!!!😘
AND may you not run out of weiners, buns, chocolate bars, marshmallows, or graham crackers!!! ;o)
*Matt.7:* 13“Enter through the narrow gate. For wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to destruction, and many enter through it. 14But small is the gate and narrow the road that leads to life, and only a few find it.
whilst on simple tasks like guessing a weight corwds are more accurate than most people, on more complex matters they are nearly always off. The masses are tending to get average results, which, when guessing, is often right, the individual holds the power of outperforming them. That's why masses get decent results, but masses lead by an intelligent individual hit the ball out of the park
2:07 Think of that before saying that you have 2 degrees, both in finance xD
The brand of a sucker for the convoluted and expensive. Have to wonder what the EROEI on that degree is.
"the crowd is always right" so says the crowd lol
I just have one question: does he wear pants when he records?
Unlikely. Suspect shorts or boxer briefs. If Thoughty2 is a tighty whitey guy, I'd be disappointed. This presentation was also a disappointment. Will have to take the under on this bet.
Are you wanting a crowd opinion or photo proof ?? TgT
Those suspenders would lead me to believe that, yes, he is indeed wearing pants. Unless they are connected to his.... well... you know..
he has overalls so most likely.
No. He is like Donald Duck. Doesn't wear pants.
Been watching you for years but thought you stopped posting. Turns out RUclips unsubscribed me.
Glad to see you again. I'll have to watch your archives to find when you switched from clean cut suit to 1850s farm hand ;)
I don't understand why this isn't your most viewed video. It's the best insight you've taught me.
We need direct democracy, where everyone gets a vote on things.
This really goes to show that you have to think for yourself, so that your community may be a wiser crowd.
9:24 You were able to pronounce "Piña" way better than the average english-speaking person
@Leandro Aude Portugal. I know it's a spanish name but we also use the "ñ" sound quite often.
@Leandro Aude Exactly. Even though, in portuguese "Pinha" doesn't mean the same as "Piña" ahah
@Leandro Aude Yes it is!
@alphadawn2015 lennon he must be referring to pina coladas.
Ahh yes now we see the crowds 'Wisdom' while playing Among Us. I told you guys I wasn't the imp🙂 ^says sadly while flying is space^
This channel changed my life. Thank you for everything
Love your channel dude!!
You have the BEST voice for this type of video. You rock dude!!
Among Us proves that no.....no they can't, unless the crowd also has a genius.
well iq scores are higher then ever so whatever
@@imortalones actually no
@@umaru1942 there are more in college then ever before. if the schools suck then thats on them.
My boi Thought2 really changed the thumbnail and title 10 times
"The oxen weighs as much as 2 normal cows, or that of a small car." - America
An American ox does indeed weigh as much as a small car.
It can go at a velocity of 56 bald eagles per hamburger
American here - You shouldn't use SI units. We have no idea what a "Small Car" is!
Man, I wish I could make elegant, hypnotic gestures with my hands whenever I spoke to people. But Thoughty2 does it all the time!
Definitely one of the best videos I’ve seen in a while, not only here but overall. Truly mind opening results, and it all makes sense. Thanks!
To summarize the video
"Apes strong together"
Ants are smart
yes
Under rated comment
Alternate title: *What if we all used 100% of our brain together simultaneously?*
EDIT: Why don't we/they try to find Malaysian Airlines 370 by using Wisdom of the Crowd?
They tried and came up with a USA conspiracy.
If I'm asked to take that survey, understand that I'm going to find an adequate map and throw darts at it until I land one somewhere in the Pacific, and that will be my guess. ;o)
@@gnarthdarkanen7464 matter of fact is, that will work somehow
@Lalalola much like: "Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes"
@@TotalImmort7l It better, because that's what I'll be doing. ;o)
There's a saying in China: "三个臭皮匠顶个诸葛亮." which basically means "Three Fools Are Wiser Than a Sage." and more often than not, I agree with that sentiment.
Edit: I believe this ancient proverb was meant to show how it is almost always good to seek knowledge from many different people, rather than to study under one master.
Are you saying 3 drunk fools are better than ufc champion in a fist fight?
@@kenikerflores5878 you are severely underestimating drunk people. Do you know what drunken style is?
Dave Orange hahahahaha! That Drunken Fist be deadly bruh 🥴🤜🏼
@@Dave_of_Mordor it is unpredictable, fighting styles can get repetitve, not with a drunk.
@@kenikerflores5878 yeah that's totally what they said 🙄
12:40 An example of monumentally stupid crowds is every single episode of the Apprentice 😂😂😂
Diversity of things like race, creed, culture, ability, nationality, orientation and identity inherently carry with it a difference of perspective and way of thinking.
Crowd wisdom is exactly why I always value the user review ratings more than the expert critic ratings for a movie/show/videogame.
it only works if you convergevto the commkn taste. but the pro reviews unfortuntely could be biased by affiliation and self-kmterest
there are so many fake reviews now they have become basically worthless
I used this method when I was in 4th grade.
My teacher had a jar of jellybeans she asked the class to guess how many were in it I went around asking my classmates for their guess I calculated the mean turned in the answer and to my surprise I was the closest with my answer being 673 and the correct amount 709.
I won but my stomach lost...ALL OF THEM
"Who is this 'they' you speak of?"
"They...them...everyone....idiots, if we look at them as a whole."
"A person is smart, people are dumb panicky dangerous animals and you know it" - Agent K, MIB.
What a fascinating topic!!! You guys do a great cross section of topics. So well researched!!!! Great channel!!!!
And the narrator!!!! That guy's got a ton of that cool charisma!!! Nice work!!!
You should really make a podcast. I really like to listen to your wierd, interesting facts while lying in bed taking a nap or something
Osmosis rules!
Original title: Here's why a crowd of people is smarter than one genius
not really lol. u r late
It was "can a crowd be smarter than a single genius"
@D Moll how many times did the title change in last 30 minutes?
3 times?
@@koraptd6085 Holy shit again, already? Next title was "can a crowd predict the stock market" wasn't it?
Current “ you already know the weight of the this ox. Here’s how?
Ah I have an idea to predict elections! Make an event in that country that surveys everyone!
Oh wait...
Let me save you some time.
NO.
R u ok
@@raminmoosaee i know, i got thr notification
This explains the "ask the audience" lifeline on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire hahahahahaha
"Human swarming".....(that's the beginning of my *new knowledge of the day*....I had to save this; it's really intriguing. Thank you Thoughty2?
I have always thought it sounded like he was saying “...42 here” and knowing that I’m not alone in this, I’m convinced he genuinely is saying 42
42; the total number of dots on a pair of dice and also, the meaning of Life
He *is* saying 42 because he pronounces th as f. There's no difference in sound.
When I think " mustache wielding maniac " I think Hitler.
Or Stalin
Hey, 42 here
Collective vs. the individual... I was intrigued. Even kept my eyes off my own work to watch this. (No worries, I was roughly a week ahead.) A moment away helped me breathe. Thank you.
i can not be avoided that the wisdom of the crowd is far better that you can achieve alone but the same happens when one thing goes wrong and it can be avoided with a few simple steps! like 1.questioning before being influenced.
2.Know who you should hangout with, but never choose only to hangout with those who you share the same skills or mindset because your learning will be limited .
4.think and lay down points to backup your opinions
5.survive with the crowd but never lose the tactics to survive alone, in other words many have fallen and held back just because they are too afraid to be a lone wolf.
herd mentality has me thinking otherwise. it all depends on who makes up the crowd.
Thoughty2: There is intelligence in diversity
radical left: You see, you alt right nazis?
rightwing: Can I talk now?
radical left: no. Your kind of diversity is unwanted.
Kenji Wright 😂😂😂
12:55 James SuroWIECKI FFS
Su-ro-vee-ets-kee if you will, dear Brit.
Kacper Seltenreic, now how many people who live in Britain or almost anywhere in North America South America would know that? Thank you for sharing the correct pronunciation, but do you have to be a douche?
Aaron's is the correct pronunciation in Britain. If the owner of such a name wishes to pronounce it differently elsewhere, they are welcome to.
Commenting before the video ends and the "experts" start commenting
Rumor has it, if you fix the video title you will smash the algorithm again.
@ Thoughty2 I love your channel I can listen to you all day LOL.
Here when the title was "Can a Crowd Be Smarter Than a Single Genius"
Ye
Does he change the title often or what?
Same, this is starting to be a disturbing trend. Seen it a few times now and I find it highly manipulative and disingenuous. Makes me distrust the creator in general. Which is a shame as it's only from creators I like that I've seen doing this, why else would I be there so early.
The Epstein "suicide" seems like a great example of this
I showed this to my teacher and he said “interesting”
"Interesting, F to everyone"
Not to correct you O Great One, but it is "pot latch" dinner. Pot luck is a bird hunters term. It means that your hunt was lucky, and you have something for the pot that night. Pot Latch is a term from covered pots brought to a dinner party or other social event (common in early USA community dances and such). These pot were heavy cast iron, and had a hinged cover that you "latched" for moving the pot safely. Don't make this mistake again! Great videos!
It's weird seeing my home city on one of your videos. I thought you meant Plymouth in America until I saw Mount Edgecumb and Drake's Island. Keep up the good work!!!
"AI how bout A US"
USSR Anthem intensifies
* cough * China
hehehe
If it's 4chan, then yes. Otherwise, no.
The wisest thing that should be on every wise individuals list is to invest in different stream of income that don't depend on the government to bring money especially now the pandemic is hitting economy pretty hard .
60% of all my investment are cryptocurrency especially bitcoin and I'm still planning on purchasing more... 😃
I'm considering starting up a bitcoin investment but i don't know if its really gonna be boom just like the prediction says
It happened earlier this year, and its gonna happen again, don't miss out on this one, if you eventually do, then you have yourself to blame
You trade with Expert Kevin Gilbert too?😲😲
@William A. Jones Wow that's great, I thought I'm the only one that knows him , Mr Kevin has been successfully managing my trading account for a very long time without any complain whatsoever till date
Have you done one on left-handed people and the ‘idea’ that they more intelligent and also shunned in earlier years? And just how they have basically adapted to just living in a right-handed society. So many examples! That would be cool!
Sir, you had the best channel on RUclips. Bar none. Thoroughly been enjoying your videos for the last month or so! I totally appreciate your insight and vast knowledge base.
"Stock Market Bubbles and Hitler?" why not "Stock Market Bubbles and the Demonrat Party?"
First
I laughed
I’m from Plymouth and that is really fascinating that experiment like that happened here
3:02 I don’t know why, but this stock footage makes me ridiculously happy. .. maybe it’s the guy’s perfectly matching hair, eyebrows and beard? I dunno.🤔😆