U.S. Treasury To Issue Over 1 Trillion Dollars In Gross New Debt In Q2 | John Comiskey
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- Опубликовано: 2 июл 2024
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John Comiskey’s day job does not involve processing reams of data on the daily deposits and withdrawals of the U.S. Treasury’s bank account in order to predict how much the U.S. government will borrow and when. He does that at night. Comiskey joins Forward Guidance to share how he taught himself the workings of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet before realizing that most of the action was at the Treasury, not the Fed. Comiskey shares in great detail the predictions about how much the U.S.Treasury will borrow in 2024. Filmed on January 24, 2024.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:14 John's Start In Market Plumbing (Why Fed's Listed Balance Sheet Originally Didn't Go Down When Quantitative Tightening Started in 2022)
06:02 Debt Ceiling Ex Date In 2023
09:27 Treasurys: Coupons vs. Bills
15:30 The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) In November 2023
22:36 Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (1.1 Trillion of Gross Issuance, Comiskey Expects)
27:20 VanEck Ad
36:12 The Goals And Obligations Of The U.S. Treasury
43:51 Why Is The U.S. Deficit So Large?
53:19 Some States Have Been Very Late With Paying Their Taxes
59:34 The U.S. Fiscal Deficit in 2024 and Beyond
01:04:40 Comiskey's Doubts That The Fed Will End Quantitative Tightening (QT) As Early As Some Expect
01:11:49 Is This All Sustainable?
01:16:51 Concluding Thoughts
01:01:04 Private Credit And CLOs
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 
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I had my own retail business for 10 years with employees. I wrote a lot of checks made out to the U.S. Treasury. I finally closed the business when I realized it was the Treasury making most of the money from my business, not me. Broken down to the number of hours I spent on the business, I was basically making minimum wages myself. Never again.
And it still isn’t enough for Uncle Sam.
LOL, sure you did.
Jack, I appreciate your podcasts. You do a really good job.
Love you my man! Always love your material, and interviewing skills!!
Great catchup, you are both great!! ❤ miss you on the weekly roundup with mike , tyler !
Thank you !!
Thanks for doing this, this was so informative
Is it possible that George Carlin was correct when he stated that America is a freak show?
If grandma Yellen is funding the military by clipping coupons, well, you have your answer.
Thanks!
After programming other things are easy. I was a programmer and now I can follow economics and even medicine easily.
Perfect idea
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How many times do I need to report the fake AI Michael Saylor ad 🤦🤣
Why do you keep making this complaint as a comment to the channel? There's no Saylor ad baked into this recording. What you see is apparently coming from RUclips: not Jack's problem.
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thank you to the host for interpreting him, people need to stop using so much industry jargon and abbreviations when explaining something, unless this convo is just for a private group of people. if it's to teach general public or even someone just trying to learn...introduce what the abbreviation means FIRST then you can use it as much as you want and jargon is inappropriate at all times (again unless this isnt meant for a broad audience). this doesmt seem like a bar/pub setting so please tell your guests to remember their audience.
A totally fair critique and something Ill keep in mind in my future writings (or interviews should I be interviewed again). I agree Jack does a great job as an interviewer interpreting the material for the listener, which given most of the subject matter he covers (particularly when it spans the financial system plumbing/mechanics) is a pretty tall order. Anyways, appreciate the feedback.
@@johncomiskey1053 the problem is you know more than you think you know😂and those of us actually interested in understanding the bond market actually care about trading investing and insuring. thanks for the help, you gotta be patient with me and my fellow C students 😎
Thanks everyone I was able to add more to portfolio about 67 percent extra this week so far
This is a great Video! I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post, I would be glad if anyone here can explain a few things to me about investment, I believe it's my time to shine for a better future
I'll advise you to work with a financial advisor.....Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Fergus Waylen's support. This way you can get strategies designed to address your unique long/short-term goals and financial dreams .
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of his clients testimonies on CNBC news last week...
YES! that's exactly his name (Mr Fergus Waylen) I watched his interview on CNN News and so many people recommended highly about him and his trading skills, he's an expert and I'm just starting with him....From Brisbane Australia
Well, you are saying the fact. I invested $4,000 with fergus Waylen. and earned $12,000 .
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Is this data of 1T in Q2 accurate though?
we will see but the 1.1T figure refers to gross coupon issuance, not net issuance. it excludes bills and doesn't account for redemptions of U.S. debt
Q2 is Apr to Jun. The TBAC sheet says (71)b. That's negative 72 billion. Where are you getting 1 trillion???
i guess they expect a lot of taxes in April and maybe spend down some of the 750B ending balance.
Gross coupon issuance, not net borrowing. Latest info released today (Monday):
home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2054
John's numbers are pretty close to what was released. The QRA comes out in two days (Wednesday).
-Jack
Undoubtedly the total national debt is equal to the total interest paid since the Revolutionary War. !😂
They can tax back the interest they pay out on bonds, but people will keep buying them bonds .... clear
You are correct.... it is gross.
It's called a ponzi scheme
Wow bots are alive here hey 😂
Jack asked. lets look at the budget, and see why its so screwed up. And John ran his mouth for the next 10 minutes, talking about everything under the sun
Gross debt, not Gross new debt.
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks this year. Hope to make millions in 2024.
Who would buy a bond when the dollar is getting crushed? When you had your returns, you lost a ton of money when you consider inflation. Make 5 and lose 7 percent every year? What?
Who cares? We have a 20 trillion gdp. 1 trillion is nothing. That’s like grandma putting 1000 bucks on the card when her pension is 20,000. Big deal
Banks are making loans with no reserves. That’s a big deal.
That's a horrible analogy. In your comparison, how much debt is your grandma sitting on already?
We have $34 trillion in debt and growing currently by $2 trillion each year. Doubling the debt every 8 years,
And this is why the average American allows democrat politicians to steal from tax payers to buy votes, to empower and enrich themselves,. destroying the dollar, the country and your standard of living.
Wakeupdumbass and get educated.
Here's why deficits are larger now than they were in 2019. (This info is pulled from the congressional budget office as of about 9 months ago). The 2023 deficit is probably closer to $2 trillion.
This insane senile ole joe admin and the demcorats have continued to unnecessarily spend 50% MORE in 2021, 22, 23, 24,.. (all of it deficit spending adding trillions to the debt each year),...years after the pandemic is over,...... than was spent the year before the pandemic started,... and we're not even in a recession.
Getting our fiscal house in order isn't hard,..(Just like we have to do at home,..). it's just a matter of getting the demcorats to stop stealing from tax payers and deficit spending like drunken sailors on country destroying liberal pork and demcorat vote buying.
To do this, we first have to define the problem,.. Federal spending went up 50% from 2019 to 2020 because of covid. And then it has remained there years after covid is over.
Federal Government spending,.... Year.......Receipts.........Outlays.........Deficit
2019 3,463,364 4,446,960 -983,596 Prepandemic Trump
2020 3,421,164 6,553,621 -3,132,457 Pandemic Trump
2021 4,047,111 6,822,470 -2,775,359 Post Pandemic Biden
2022 4,897,399 6,273,324 -1,375,925 Post Pandemic Yr 2 Biden
2023 4,802,483 6,371,827 -1,569,344 Post Pandemic Yr 3 Biden
There is absolutely no reason the spending should continue to be 50% higher than in 2019 prepandemic, years after the pandemic is over. Spending should have returned to 2019 levels when senile ole joe took over.
Digging further into the details,... (This info is pulled from the congressional budget office)
2019 - Pre-Pandemic
Mandatory - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,.... about $2 trillion Other,...$650 billion
Descretionary- Defense,... $676 billion Nondefense,...$661 billion Net Interest Pmts - $375 billion.
Total $4.4 trillion
2020 - Pandemic
Mandatory - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,.... about $2.1 trillion Other,...$990 billion
Covid Related Mandatory - (But should have ended when 2021)
"Paycheck Protection",... $526 billion Unemployment Comp,... $473 billion (was inlcuded in the"other" total in 2019) "Recovery Rebates",...$275 billion
Descretionary- Defense,... $714 billion
Nondefense,...$914 billion
Net Interest Pmts - $375 billion.
Total $6.6 trillion
2021 - Post Pandemic
Mandatory - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,.... about $2.3 trillion Other,...$1.1 trillion
Covid Related Mandatory - (But should have ended )
"Paycheck Protection"... $290 billion Unemployment Comp,... $392 billion (was inlcuded in the"other" total in 2019)
"Recovery Rebates,"...$733 billion
Descretionary-
Defense,... $742 billion
Nondefense,...$895 billion Net Interest Pmts - $400 billion.
Total $6.8 trillion
2022 Post Pandemic 2 years
Mandatory - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,.... about $2.5 trillion Other,...$520 billion
Covid Related Mandatory - (But should have ended)
Paycheck Protection,... $290 billion
Unemployment Comp (Changed to "Income Security"),... $581 billion (was inlcuded in the"other" total in 2019)
Student Loan Forgiveness,...$482 billion
Descretionary-
Defense,... $751 billion
Nondefense,...$910 billion Net Interest Pmts - $500 billion.
Total $6.3 trillion
There's nearly a trillion in covid residue money and student loan foregivness votebuying money.,.. that still may be up for grabs iif senile ole joe gets his way.
And we spend 4 times what chinadoes ondefense. If we can't beat china with 4 times the spending,.. then we need to get a new military,..because this new protransgenderpedofile military is nothing but a useless money pit,.. that will in the end have us losing a very expensivewar withchina.
Wrt SS, medicare, medicaid,... means test, raise the retirement age for anyone under 30,.. close the pheckingborder and stop letting half the world's dregs hop on US tax payers' backs.
This can be fixed and we can get to a balanced budget,.. just need to get rid of the demcorats and the MMT deficit spending liberal deep state.
@@thebarryman none. She’s dead
Awful guest, extremely boring and monotonous
not all things of value will entertain you.
Georgetau3034 - I happen to agree with you. Not all 'expert' in their field have the ability to explain or articulate clearly the subject at hand. I was so looking forward to listening to this but it was incoherent and unclear. And that is in spite of Jack's sincere effort to elevate the conversation. Compare this to the interview with Michael Howell and you see what I mean. Terrible. I wish we could bring Micheal back for a second round of questions and clarifications maybe after the Fed QRA tomorrow.
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks this year. Hope to make millions in 2024.