Nouriel Roubini on the Future of the UK's Economy
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- Опубликовано: 28 сен 2024
- Nouriel Roubini, chairman and CEO at Roubini Macro Associates, says the UK "is already in a severe stagflation," as he discusses his view of the nation's economy with Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance Early Edition."
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The problem for the UK is that besides the London financial market, there's nothing else going on. This is why people voted for Brexit. You can harp on about the markets and growth all you like. But outside of London there has been hardly any growth in years.
What about Boris and his 'oven ready' Brexit?
It blew out the stove.
What about 'who gives a S#!T about this EU propaganda'? It's like a dumped bunny-boiler dissing her ex and his new life.. None of my business - but why does't the EU just 'get a life'?
It worked. The gullible bought it and voted for the protocol to get brexit done.
It turned out to be a "boil in the bag" meal for one.
It definitely doesn't look anything like the picture on the front of the packet that's for sure.
it was may's deal. only idiots believed that blonde prick
A diverse portfolio spread across stocks, i-bonds and dividend stock funds is generally my ideal investment to beat inflation for the average investor it provides greater long term returns. it has worked out best for me in achieving a 7 figure on my portfolio also with the help of a FA handling my portfolio. smart investing is key.
That's quite impressive, you've surely made a good bit of money.
Wow, someone speaking the truth....
Where are we with project fear 😂
It's turned into Project Reality.
@@danielwood2901 no recession no mass unemployment no severe shock to the economy, that's project fear , non of it happened.
Not yet
leave england while you still can y'all..
Brevit didn't happen.
It has been undermined all the way along by entrenched interests in banking civil service and parliament
Is the bottom line " As a country we are completely shafted "
You need to reduce regulation, doesn’t mean you don’t need regulation at all.
I would stay away from this speaker’s stock.
👍👍👍
UK = :(
FDR had already demonstrated how to fix it: Not just monetarily, but use the money to directly hire people and build out of the problem. Don't dough money out to private sectors without heavy scrutiny and reviews.
Infrastructure..Infrastructure...Infrastructure.....Infrastructure. The UK needs it so now go out and build it.
WWII bailed FDR and the US out of the Roosevelt recession. Prolonged, high government spending causes an over reliance on it, so when the government inevitably has to reduce spending - everyone suffers.
Sadly Mr Roubini is talking rubbish. We’re fine.
😑😐😑
England is London...the rest is just landscape
Why? Thousands are risking their lives crossing the channel from supposedly the safe and happy EU.
the uk has trillions of pounds in reserve do you know why because the private sector and sharholders that have been dominating the working class lives are not interested in helping the economy but instead line there pockets on the suffering of the poor labour was not the best of governments but under a nationalised government there would be fairness thats why the tories dont want labour to win .
Brexit this or that,all we've ever done is export jobs to EU and import people to compete for whatever is left.
Import third world, become third world.
This is all about...$$$
Guy really hates us plebs.
All those doomsayers talking about Brexit take note:
1. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is a financial metric that breaks down a country's economic output per person and is calculated by dividing the GDP of a nation by its population.
1. GDP per Capita in European Union is expected to reach 32900.00 USD by the end of 2022, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations.
2. The European Union gdp per capita for 2021 was $38,234,
3. That’s a fall of 14%
4. UK GDP per capita last year was 47,334.36 USD (2021)
5. GDP per Capita in the United Kingdom is expected to reach 41900.00 USD by the end of 2022
6. That’s a fall of 11. 48%
7. So, EU GDP per capita fell by 2.5% MORE than the UK did…….
8. The GDP per capita of France in 2021 was 43,518.54 USD (2021)
9. That is USD 3,812 LESS than the UK or about 8% less GDP per capita than the UK had in 2021.
10. The UK had a 2021 population of 67.33 million (2021). France had a population of 67.5 million (2021). Almost the same population but 8 % less -so you can’t claim population factors. France simply produced less economy per person
11. In the six years 2015 to 2021 French and Germany productivity fell by 18%, from USD80 per hour to around USD 65 per hour (Germany fell from USD 80.6 to USD 64.4, France fell from USD 80.1 to USD 66.3 productivity per hour.
12. The UK FELL LESS - by 11%, from USD 67.7 to USD 58.1 productivity per hour.
And then we can look at wealth:
1. Mean wealth per person across those 440 million people in the EU is not constant. Most are at Developing Nation status - meaning the EU is a de facto empire run by Germany and France.
2. The UK accounted for 17% of the Average Mean Wealth of the EU pre Brexit.
3. The UK had a total mean wealth of US$14,341,029,241,000.00 at the time of Brexit.
4. The UK had the third highest Total Mean Wealth in the EU when it was a member.
5. Only Germany and France had a larger TMW, and France is only 3% higher than the UK
6. The UK had a Total Mean Wealth that is equal to the sum of the bottom 21 EU nations
7. The UK population has the equivalent to the TMW of 133 million EU citizens.
8. The UK has the second largest Median Wealth in the EU, behind France.
9. The UK has a Total Median Wealth that is equal to the sum of the bottom 22 EU nations.
Based upon the above leaving the UK would have to have harmed the EU MUCH more than it harmed the EU.
Kudos to your patience in collecting the information. It would be interesting to know where you get your information from. Surely not from official sources, there are just too many (biased) imprecisions. If you believe what you've written ... that doesn't praise your intelligence.
@@pmlt8973
Which piece of information are you disputing?
Gdp and growth data doesn’t match what either IMF or the World Bank data indicates. Same for productivity - the UK has a much lower hourly productivity than both Germany or France (and many other EU countries).Then the data of total wealth and mean wealth doesn’t match the Credit Suisse global wealth report. These are the official sources I use. I was therefore interested in understanding where did the above numbers come from.
It isn’t in any case that important: the intended perspective is “the UK is so great”. The reality is: the UK was a declining economy in 1973 (+- 15% lower per capita vs France, a country that had been destroyed 30 years earlier), deindustrializinf and uncompetitive. the UK recovered it’s economic power during its stay at the EU (for obvious reasons), and since 2016 it’s been again lagging and losing steam vs its peers. It still is a developed economy, no one disputes that, but its potential has been indefinitely reduced.
You’re free to disagree.
@@pmlt8973 👍
GDP per capita means nothing in Britain as most of the GDP is around the city of London, look at money velocity, then you will see the UK is well and truly beyond repair. The bankers sold us out long ago nothing to do with Brexit, Brexit was meant to be a fight back but can you honestly say we are out of the EU.
UK stagnation EU deflation. Check your facts, pound up against the dollar and the euro..inflation in the UK and the EU is too high expect higher interest rates. And the price of oil is dropping like a stone. UK/USA liquid gas deal signed. UK will deliver some gas to the EU.
Total rubbish I buy euros with sterling and currently that is on hold as the pound is worth peanut.Check your facts and remember exchange rates move daily as a knee jerk reaction to comments and actions of politicians, not a barometer of quality of life which is worse in the UK than most EU countries.
Try reading facts, and not short term minutes when you see a rise before a massive fall. The pound has fallen massively since 2016 and is still over valued and likely to hit parity with the Euro in the coming years.
I love the idea that the price of oil is dropping like a stone, that would wonderful for the price of petrol/diesel - oh of course not that is more rubbish. The price of oil is set mainly by opec countries and the Saudi will not increase production to lower the price. It will remain high as Saudi and middle east has a strangle hold. Russia was supposed to be Euopes Saviour over oil, then that went tits-up when Russian oil became toxic (politically as well as chemically). Europe is opening far more NPG terminals than UK, it is far more proactive than the UK, it still has its gas storage lasting in some cases 6 months, the UK closed its main gas storage and is desperately trying to open it again - I think we up up to a massive 5 days supply now. Wow, isn't that impressive !!!! The UK is heavily dependent on spot pricing of gas/oil as it has very little storage and the UK has been importing electricity most of the summer from France. Less so now.
UK is a basket case, and the rest of the world knows.
@@tomooo2637 the price of crude oil is 78 dollars a barrel that's half the, price it was 12 months ago the UK is supplying the EU with gas having converted it from liquified to its gaseous state and pumpped it into the EU via a pipe line from East anglia the reason is there, are, no ports, in the EU that are deep enough for the ships from America to offload, liquified gas as regardsxthe, currency rates the euro is nowhere near parity with the pound. Dream on as you are mIles out with your figs you also have no idea how much crude is today.
Again you have not looked at numbers and understood the world context. In 2020 the spot oil prices were around 40 dollar, and the began to rise during 2021 to 50 later in the year. With the invasion of Ukraine they went very high of course. The pressure on the oil price is easing as USA has increased production and Europe has filled it's gas reserves so total fuel contention is less. Oil is trading 70-80 now which is double 2020.
Again, you are looking at short term . The rest of the economics with OPEC and the control they have is too complex to discuss here
@@tomooo2637 your figs are correct but in 2018 the price per barrel was the same as today..at 70/80 the price of crude has varied widely from 140/150 a few years ago to as low as 35
Those fluctuations will continue for ever as oil is either sold or left in the ground as an investment. The richest reserves of oil are in Venezuela. And since most oil is brought into the UK by ship it matters little where it comes from there is no shortage of liquid gas, and we seem to use the ships as our gas storage with many ships moored of our coast.
You reap what you sow?
if the european integration in the 70s would have been managed differently and not through neoliberal thatcher style policies britain would have been a more equal society and most likely we woudn't have had this perception that eu is not working for the brits. some of the worse policy decisions of the last decades in the uk were taken in london not bruxelles.
Simple solution to the problem make it affordable and create more problem solved
where is the rest of interview
It's turned into click bait.they never re-air Abby joseph cohen interviews. Pathetic
This was always going to happen....but we will recover......Brexit is the best thing we have done since the war...but we have to get through the negative years of the EU treachery and USA attitude !!
I love this guy's accurate summary of the UK's current economic disaster.
Very Accurate.
@@paulthompson2486 .. and very obvious! You don't need a sage from NYU-Stern to tell you this!
What economic disaster? The eurozone is in recession the UK isn't.
£ is way up, FTSE way up, so we will get through it all !!
Damn, I might have to stay in the US for a bit longer than I want. I miss London.
never go 🔙
Why london? There are so many better places than London man.
@@davidmarjason4222 Not to me. I'm a big city person and London is the best big city for me personally. It's a massive cultural and business hub with so many things to do. It has an excellent public transport system- meaning that I'm not always forced to drive (which I dislike doing) and it has a large Nigerian community- which suits me coming from a Nigerian family.
@@sachin2842 I love the feelings of nostalgia
@@BabsW well london just belongs to everybody at this point, no longer an english city so I can understand why. I much prefer living in towns as I'm an introvert and cost of living is much lower but standard are still high. London is like one of those places where its nice and all with muti culture stuff, but the prices of a flat and housing is so expensive. Even a doctor complains that he can't afford a house with his 80k a year salary and I'm like God damn... move brother..
The Chancellor has a plan-he says. Can we all relax knowing that?
only if you are a tory donor.
Eurozone & UK are at risk of becoming frontier markets not emerging markets if unable to solve inflation issue soon and provide a plan for orderly deleverage. Civil disobedience and clashes not out of the realm of possibility.
Eurozone has severe issues but most are externally created. The UK has internal issues as well as external. The worst of these is that bunch of headless chickens in control.
@@stephenconway2468 hahaha Eurozone seems worse to me, but the UK is trending down really fast and getting near EU. At least you know who's liable for the Pound, the Euro we dunno... Monetary unions can break and many can get wiped out.
@@pmapires "seems worse to me", that is because you are using your feeling and not facts and figures. Media make headlines about the extreme issues, but ignore things which are working fine.
Regarding who is responsible for Sterling or the Euro, it is the same mechanism. The markets in the main decide the FX rates. The central banks (ECB or BOE) make decisions on interest rates which strongly influence the FX rate by determining interest costs. FX intervention by the central banks (buying or selling currency) is rarely done and if so you will find that the central banks work together.
That last sentence might confuse you. Let's imagine that we have a run on sterling. BOE will sell it's foreign currency reserve to buy sterling, the ECB will also sell it's foreign currency reserve to buy sterling...the Fed will do the same. Central Banks are not competitors. Their job is to keep the markets calm.
So while maybe you don't know who is responsible for Euro, that is your lack of knowledge only.
@@stephenconway2468Sovereignty dude. Say Germany leaves the Euro causing a massive depreciation in the currency, will an Italian/Spanish/etc lender be able to ask questions to the German Parliament and courts? At least in the UK, if you have a currency meltdown, you know who to ask questions to.
@@pmapires Germany won't leave the Euro though.
Next year this man should be on question time.
Give more money to Ukraine
Why to fight a longer war with more dead?
Dr Doom, at it again. Why bother having this guy on? He's literally been bearish ever since he stepped foot out of the womb.
Is he wrong?
@@anonymous7egend He's been bearish on the market since about the late 1990's, and if you'd believed him back then, you'd have missed the two biggest bull markets of all time.
He may be right this time because even a broken clock is right twice a day.
How can anyone be bullish about the UK economy? UK is finished. They went from a Great Britain to little Britain… to nothing. But they are the best at pageantry:)
😂😂😂
This man shouldn't be talking on TV, he should be using his time trying to understand bitcoin.
@Lies Tricks Correct. The pump will last until the end of capitalism. Don't miss it!
Germany is in far worse shape.
Brexit again, lol.
Nahrungsmittelbank (food bank) is not a word commonly used in Germany.
germany are doing far better than us right now. cant you read a graph?
@@conor1077 what's tragic is that younger people think foodbanks are a normal part of British society, but even I can remember when such a thing was unheard of growing up.
If you told me 12 years ago that foodbanks would be everywhere and that every major supermarket would have big collection points to donate in (funnily enough the supermarket still profiting from your purchases), I would have thought you were trolling and I was still a young adult then, not a naive child.
Conservatives and the older generations who know better are shameless for tacitly accepting this (whilst developing countries that they look down on move away from charity and into modern welfare states), welfare in such a wealthy country should be generous enough so that the unemployed AND all the idle strawmen these rightwingers imagine can afford their own food, not rely on the good will and charity of others. Working people use them too.
maybe you should live in Germany and see what a higher quality of life the people experiance than in the UK. Brexit caused it lol!
Your Funny.... hes talking about serious problems in UK... and you reply about Germany... your ridiculous, cheers 🍻