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Hi Zeng, I'd love to see this 18yr cycle with wage and income growth on the same chart, as well as other factors such as inflation, interest rates, etc. Also, do you really believe we'll get a lot of migration with the cost of living and buying property being so high?
i just bought a home in truganina near schools 22ks to cbd 3 rooms 1 livingroom 2 toilets double garage land is rectangle 17 meter front land 490 square meters. House at 138 square meters. i paid 630k with needing small jobs like a good paint etc. I have have seen prices go up really fast there. Do you think i paid to much? Or average house is 13 years old.
Hi Zeng, I was wondering if you could comment on RBA stating that cash rate would kept low until 2024 however banks are still raising their own interest rates. Do you think it will price people out of the certain markets? It feels like everyone is rushing the market at the moment
The rates will go up once inflation reaches 2-3% and when unemployment and underemployment decreases to sustainable levels. And RBA has predicted it to be 2024 but could be sooner as employment rates have reached above predicted numbers. This is unprecedented times but I think Zeng is talking about the normal cycle. But you are right, we could see house price drops in 3-4 years
Yes, I agree with what has been said! The RBA had plans to increase rates in 2024, but due to inflation, our faster than expected recovery, and with the banks pricing in a sooner than expected rate rise, we could see rates increase in 2023.
What do you think about the Geelong market? It is still growing like crazy. I bought a house for $360k in Norlane in August 2020 and sold for $550k 2 weeks ago. Now I don’t know where to live! Cant find a home for myself!
Wow you did really well with that property? I was actually looking at Norlane recently and I quite like that area, as well as the Geelong market as a whole!
Love the Geelong market. I am building 3 properties there. The population growth is on par with Melbourne and there are major projects that the state government is investing in, so the Barron area is definitely a great place to buy
You should have waited a year because now you have to pay full capital gains tax. If it's your place of residence you wouldnt pay tax on any of the profits.
Considering this interest rate hikes , would you still think we are in the boom phase till 2026 or could it be that this cycle has cut shorter this time , let’s say we had the winners curse in 2021 and now we are having the crash for the next 4 years . What do you think ?
Hi Zeng, good content, can you please credit the source of your graphs? (there's a watermark in the pics so I assume it's been taken from somewhere), would be good to know where the original content is from so i can look more into it, thanks!
Sydney properties been going up for more than 18 yrs lol and the prices are rediculously overvalued, people are having to take out much bigger loans than they used to and incomes may have increased but data shows that they arent keeping up near as much. Chinese buyers made up a huge portion of the demand for sydney property with the visa incentives etc but now that there is this fued heating up between Australia and China i doubt that demand will continue over the coming years without the chinese i dont see who else we will immigrate and keep propping up our property prices
The feud is between the chinese gov and aus. It not chinese citizens. Chinese citizens are innocent and will always love to live in Aus. Your opinion is ignorant.
The property cycle is longer than 18 years we have been in a rising market for 35 years as interest rate have dropped. Once the rising interest rate cycle returns the property market will stop growing.
What are your thoughts on what is happening in Byron Bay? Huge boom, prices going up daily, ppl paying cash because the bank won’t finance the inflated price!
The cycle has really been 30 years. Rates have been dropping since the late 80's when they were 17%. (I know most young spruikers like you don't realise rates actually can go up!). Obviously this constant reduction has made prices go up in sync with rates going down. This is not possible anymore. Regardless if rates go up or not ( more likely up) this will have a devastating effect on prices. Don't believe these spruikers as they will dissapear soon. Don't be the fool to pay to much now and not to be able to pay off a loan on a depreciating asset in the future.
@@zengzhao-wealthcreation9813 a lot of people have recency bias or arent old enough. Cycles do turn. They have never been in a market where you have lowered your price a couple of times and its been six months. Still no buyers.
A very interesting theory, which has been quite accurate thus far! If his theory is correct, we will see a meltdown in 2016-2018, which is in line with this 18 year property cycle!
@@zengzhao-wealthcreation9813 the bloke was in jail for like 11 years running some 3 billion dollar ponzi scheme so tread cautiously. But he's been somewhat accurate.
Can’t sustain, common sense, people will default loans, rent won’t be paid, cheap debt easy trap, this is nothing new, wage & income growth will not happen, Sydney people have lost there marbles
Warm regards, I am a property youtuber from Indonesia, especially Sumatra, in Indonesia since the pandemic outbreak, the property market has fallen, but now it has started to rise again, because the Indonesian government has provided a lot of stimulus for economic recovery, especially in the property business, how about in your country? since the pandemic happened..okay good luck always for you and your family.
Hey Zeng, have been watching alot of your videos. As a student I've been trying to follow in your footsteps. Invested in my first property in Sydney. Also invested in gold miners, which I made quite a bit from small caps. I have a business idea, maybe we can collaborate? Lmk. :)
Any money gov gives in grants are eaten up by so called ore logic or real estate industry facts,bucket, this helps with the FOMO. The economy will take more than 10 years to recover not a few. No money making in property investment in Au, its been tooo costly in last 10 years, nothing to gain but pain.
Nice update Zeng. Will be interesting to see if Phil's 18 year cycle holds true this time round. How are things progressing in Maidstone? I'm keen to hear an update and forward projection on numbers. Can imagine this is tricky given the ramp up in construction costs and challenges finding tradies. Hopefully out of this lockdown soon!
Thanks LK! I’m writing up a script for that video right now! The numbers look quite good, thanks for this boom cycle. Let’s hope the market stays strong until the project is finished 🙏🏻
I've been devouring Fred Harrisons writing... undoubtedly there is a lot to be said for studying history under such a deeply insightful lens as that of Harrison. Anderson's contribution too, is outstanding. In the real world though, away from the pages heavy with theory... surely one must still weight up the risk reward of ones person goals/ambition using these wonderful books as references rather than gospel, combined with the privilege of hearing you share your thoughts and experiences, Zeng! Cheers! PfP
Thanks Timothy! Australia is one of the most desirable countries already. And with the Covid outbreaks, violence and riots we saw in the US and UK, it should make Australia even more attractive to migrants. The government just has to increase migrant intake!
@@zengzhao-wealthcreation9813 If only the Aus government would rather encourage organic population growth (like the South Korean government does), instead of taking the lazy route of opening up the floodgates of immigration.
There are definitely a lot of assumptions in this video, and those will need to be monitored closely going forward to determine to strength of this growth cycle!
It's extremely overvalued yes, but markets are all about human behaviour. Aussies seem to just believe housing only go up and that sentiment is being ridden along with low interest rates and favourable policies like Zeng mentioned. The budget announced the 2% deposit for SINGLE parents...a household can't pay back mortgages with 2 incomes let alone one with a huge principal payment. They're stretching this as far as they can until all their buddies get out of their positions and it'll tank and the over leveraged are left feeling the pain. A mortgage is essentially a leveraged "long" position on your house. I believe it'll continue rising as home loans for owner occupied have been going up but when it stops and turns down, it'll be extremely painful unlike any other time in history. Thoughts?
@@kenectd Overvalued indeed, and the irony is the price growth has nothing to do with the underlying value of the properties. Buyers are bidding each other using excessive leverage on the back of cheap money supply. In other words, the growth in property price is not a reflection of the increasing value of the asset - rather, it's a reflection of the devaluation of the dollar.
As long as there’s masses attending auctions and there’s 4-5 parties bidding for a house, we’ll see growth Not everyone buys the house at an auction so they’re onto the next auction. By then, another 50 people have entered the property market. Safe to say property is secure, at least for the next 3-4 years
@@danielson9994 Saying property is secure solely on the basis of its price growth is a bit misinformed, I'm afraid. After all, price growth is not always attributable to the growth in the underlying value of the assets - that's what creates overvaluation. The bidding/auction scenario you use is a good example of price vs value. The highest bidder would get exactly the same house as the next highest bidder, even if the highest bidder ended up paying way more than the second highest or excessively above the reserve price (in other words, it's likely the highest bidder is overpaying for the property).
![The Next 5 Years: My Real Estate Strategy [Property Investing Australia]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/lxSqM555r-g/mqdefault.jpg)
My Multi-Million Dollar Portfolio 👉 ruclips.net/video/Fut4zpcMG9Y/видео.html
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Hi Zeng, I'd love to see this 18yr cycle with wage and income growth on the same chart, as well as other factors such as inflation, interest rates, etc.
Also, do you really believe we'll get a lot of migration with the cost of living and buying property being so high?
Probably my 8th video ~ hubby and I are loving the content ~ we are new investors 🙌🏾🤩
i just bought a home in truganina near schools 22ks to cbd 3 rooms 1 livingroom 2 toilets double garage land is rectangle 17 meter front land 490 square meters. House at 138 square meters.
i paid 630k with needing small jobs like a good paint etc. I have have seen prices go up really fast there. Do you think i paid to much? Or average house is 13 years old.
Hi Zeng, I was wondering if you could comment on RBA stating that cash rate would kept low until 2024 however banks are still raising their own interest rates. Do you think it will price people out of the certain markets? It feels like everyone is rushing the market at the moment
The rates will go up once inflation reaches 2-3% and when unemployment and underemployment decreases to sustainable levels. And RBA has predicted it to be 2024 but could be sooner as employment rates have reached above predicted numbers. This is unprecedented times but I think Zeng is talking about the normal cycle. But you are right, we could see house price drops in 3-4 years
@@thefungiblemillennial-fina2207 Thats some really awesome insights, thank you so much :)
@@edenite Not a problem. I love talking about all things real estate!
Yes, I agree with what has been said! The RBA had plans to increase rates in 2024, but due to inflation, our faster than expected recovery, and with the banks pricing in a sooner than expected rate rise, we could see rates increase in 2023.
What do you think about the Geelong market? It is still growing like crazy. I bought a house for $360k in Norlane in August 2020 and sold for $550k 2 weeks ago. Now I don’t know where to live! Cant find a home for myself!
Wow you did really well with that property? I was actually looking at Norlane recently and I quite like that area, as well as the Geelong market as a whole!
Love the Geelong market. I am building 3 properties there. The population growth is on par with Melbourne and there are major projects that the state government is investing in, so the Barron area is definitely a great place to buy
You should have waited a year because now you have to pay full capital gains tax. If it's your place of residence you wouldnt pay tax on any of the profits.
😱 💫🌟 WOW 🤑
Considering this interest rate hikes , would you still think we are in the boom phase till 2026 or could it be that this cycle has cut shorter this time , let’s say we had the winners curse in 2021 and now we are having the crash for the next 4 years . What do you think ?
Hi Zeng, good content, can you please credit the source of your graphs? (there's a watermark in the pics so I assume it's been taken from somewhere), would be good to know where the original content is from so i can look more into it, thanks!
Hi Bonnie,
Thanks for the kind feedback!
The graphs are from propertyhub :)
How on earth did you speak for 16 min with no hiccups? 😊Well done 👍
I had heard a lot of guru promoting the beautiful story about properties. Where are there now.?
The good ones are still around :)
What year do you think I should buy a house as a first home buyer? Love your channel
Hi Danielle,
Thank you for the kind words!
I’d personally buy as early as possible
Sydney properties been going up for more than 18 yrs lol and the prices are rediculously overvalued, people are having to take out much bigger loans than they used to and incomes may have increased but data shows that they arent keeping up near as much. Chinese buyers made up a huge portion of the demand for sydney property with the visa incentives etc but now that there is this fued heating up between Australia and China i doubt that demand will continue over the coming years without the chinese i dont see who else we will immigrate and keep propping up our property prices
Some great points there! I personally see Sydney as the most dangerous market in Australia.
The feud is between the chinese gov and aus. It not chinese citizens. Chinese citizens are innocent and will always love to live in Aus. Your opinion is ignorant.
@@trev79 yeah becauze china is a democratic country that lets its citizens do whatever it wants
@@trev79 also where did i say chinese citizens are guilty of anything
The property cycle is longer than 18 years we have been in a rising market for 35 years as interest rate have dropped. Once the rising interest rate cycle returns the property market will stop growing.
What are your thoughts on what is happening in Byron Bay? Huge boom, prices going up daily, ppl paying cash because the bank won’t finance the inflated price!
Wow that is insane! I don’t know too much about the area but if the banks won’t finance it, then that’s a huge warning sign!
The cycle has really been 30 years. Rates have been dropping since the late 80's when they were 17%. (I know most young spruikers like you don't realise rates actually can go up!). Obviously this constant reduction has made prices go up in sync with rates going down. This is not possible anymore. Regardless if rates go up or not ( more likely up) this will have a devastating effect on prices. Don't believe these spruikers as they will dissapear soon. Don't be the fool to pay to much now and not to be able to pay off a loan on a depreciating asset in the future.
Thanks for sharing your opinion! Really appreciate it
@@zengzhao-wealthcreation9813 a lot of people have recency bias or arent old enough. Cycles do turn. They have never been in a market where you have lowered your price a couple of times and its been six months. Still no buyers.
Thanks Charlie, interesting video. Let’s hope we don’t see increased migration. We are swamped as it is.
Thanks Daniel! Let’s see what the government does in the coming year
What do you think of Martin Armstrong's property theory?
A very interesting theory, which has been quite accurate thus far! If his theory is correct, we will see a meltdown in 2016-2018, which is in line with this 18 year property cycle!
@@zengzhao-wealthcreation9813 the bloke was in jail for like 11 years running some 3 billion dollar ponzi scheme so tread cautiously. But he's been somewhat accurate.
Knowing my luck with investing, when I can eventually afford to buy my first house the market will crash and I'll lose everything
Buy buy buy now before it's too late!!!!
Provided that it is in the right type of property in the right market! :)
The fomo is real lol Do the exact opposite of what the mass is doing is often the best.
Can’t sustain, common sense, people will default loans, rent won’t be paid, cheap debt easy trap, this is nothing new, wage & income growth will not happen, Sydney people have lost there marbles
I definitely agree that the Sydney market is very dangerous!
What I'd like to see is some giving of credit to the people who developed this model and those that have built upon it for future vids.
Thank you for the suggestion, I will reference the data in my future videos.
Without wage growth how can it continue to double and triple?
I completely agree, I would love to see some wage growth in the coming months and years, otherwise this market is unsustainable.
Good quality content. Thanks! Subscribed.
Thank you so much Prem! 🙏🏻
Warm regards, I am a property youtuber from Indonesia, especially Sumatra, in Indonesia since the pandemic outbreak, the property market has fallen, but now it has started to rise again, because the Indonesian government has provided a lot of stimulus for economic recovery, especially in the property business, how about in your country? since the pandemic happened..okay good luck always for you and your family.
I think it is the same everywhere! The government stimulus has driven up property prices all around the world!
Thank you friends for viewing my channel, I wish you success always.@@zengzhao-wealthcreation9813
Best investing content in aus 😄🤘
This comment made my day! Thanks Rome! 🙏🏻
Thanks for commenting.For more info
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*+1 /9/7/2/5/2/8/9/7/8/1*.m
Hey Zeng, have been watching alot of your videos. As a student I've been trying to follow in your footsteps. Invested in my first property in Sydney. Also invested in gold miners, which I made quite a bit from small caps. I have a business idea, maybe we can collaborate? Lmk. :)
Hi James, thanks for your support and good to see you taking action and getting results! Been flat out lately but I'll check my messages now :)
Any money gov gives in grants are eaten up by so called
ore logic or real estate industry facts,bucket, this helps with the FOMO.
The economy will take more than 10 years to recover not a few. No money making in property investment in Au, its been tooo costly in last 10 years, nothing to gain but pain.
Thank you for sharing your opinion Mindie!
love it mate thanks for sharing
Thanks for the consistent support 👏🏻👏🏻
Nice update Zeng. Will be interesting to see if Phil's 18 year cycle holds true this time round.
How are things progressing in Maidstone? I'm keen to hear an update and forward projection on numbers. Can imagine this is tricky given the ramp up in construction costs and challenges finding tradies. Hopefully out of this lockdown soon!
Thanks LK!
I’m writing up a script for that video right now! The numbers look quite good, thanks for this boom cycle. Let’s hope the market stays strong until the project is finished 🙏🏻
Thanks for commenting.For more info
What>spp
*+1 /9/7/2/5/2/8/9/7/8/1*.m.
18 year cycle . Pull the other one.
Great content as always Zeng. Love it mate!
Glad you enjoy it! Thanks for the kind words :)
This bloke is asain, his maths makes sense.
Hahaha you know it!
I've been devouring Fred Harrisons writing... undoubtedly there is a lot to be said for studying history under such a deeply insightful lens as that of Harrison. Anderson's contribution too, is outstanding. In the real world though, away from the pages heavy with theory... surely one must still weight up the risk reward of ones person goals/ambition using these wonderful books as references rather than gospel, combined with the privilege of hearing you share your thoughts and experiences, Zeng! Cheers! PfP
Very well said, thank you for your comment!
Interesting video
Thank you Brian!
How on earth are we going to incentivize migrants to come to australia... great video mate, really interesting.
Thanks Timothy!
Australia is one of the most desirable countries already. And with the Covid outbreaks, violence and riots we saw in the US and UK, it should make Australia even more attractive to migrants. The government just has to increase migrant intake!
@@zengzhao-wealthcreation9813 If only the Aus government would rather encourage organic population growth (like the South Korean government does), instead of taking the lazy route of opening up the floodgates of immigration.
Reduce the cost of their eduction.
Sub'd. Nice one
Thank you very much! :)
Great video
Thanks! :)
i like that plate bro
Haha it’s quite a special one isn’t it!😂
Hi Zeng - great video. do u hv a whtsapp group I can join?
Hi champ,
Sorry but I don’t. You can always follow me on Instagram @investwithzeng for daily real estate content :)
Good job 👍
Thank you! :D
Peace n prosperity .. destruction
Hopefully not destruction! :/
You've based some key assumptions on propaganda.
There are definitely a lot of assumptions in this video, and those will need to be monitored closely going forward to determine to strength of this growth cycle!
Thanks for commenting.For more info
What>spp
*+1 /9/7/2/5/2/8/9/7/8/1*..m.m
Thanks for commenting.For more info
What>spp
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Are you joking. It way too over valued. It is going to crash.
I personally believe there won’t be a crash anytime soon. Just my personal opinion though! Could definitely be wrong
It's extremely overvalued yes, but markets are all about human behaviour. Aussies seem to just believe housing only go up and that sentiment is being ridden along with low interest rates and favourable policies like Zeng mentioned. The budget announced the 2% deposit for SINGLE parents...a household can't pay back mortgages with 2 incomes let alone one with a huge principal payment. They're stretching this as far as they can until all their buddies get out of their positions and it'll tank and the over leveraged are left feeling the pain. A mortgage is essentially a leveraged "long" position on your house. I believe it'll continue rising as home loans for owner occupied have been going up but when it stops and turns down, it'll be extremely painful unlike any other time in history. Thoughts?
@@kenectd Overvalued indeed, and the irony is the price growth has nothing to do with the underlying value of the properties. Buyers are bidding each other using excessive leverage on the back of cheap money supply. In other words, the growth in property price is not a reflection of the increasing value of the asset - rather, it's a reflection of the devaluation of the dollar.
As long as there’s masses attending auctions and there’s 4-5 parties bidding for a house, we’ll see growth
Not everyone buys the house at an auction so they’re onto the next auction. By then, another 50 people have entered the property market.
Safe to say property is secure, at least for the next 3-4 years
@@danielson9994 Saying property is secure solely on the basis of its price growth is a bit misinformed, I'm afraid. After all, price growth is not always attributable to the growth in the underlying value of the assets - that's what creates overvaluation.
The bidding/auction scenario you use is a good example of price vs value. The highest bidder would get exactly the same house as the next highest bidder, even if the highest bidder ended up paying way more than the second highest or excessively above the reserve price (in other words, it's likely the highest bidder is overpaying for the property).
Go home .....you know ..to 'ong Kong ...
Not too sure what you mean champ, but thanks for commenting!