Geopolitics AD 2024: Why Is The World In Chaos?
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- Опубликовано: 24 авг 2024
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I like the old background music a lot. Maybe bring it back? It was quite iconic. The perfect undertone...
Iraq and Afghanistan were definitely not a bad decision, as we took out the 3rd largest military buildup, if not for operation iraqi freedom this army would now be supplying our enemies. Don't be so quick to dismiss America. No one here is afraid of you
@@trentsuveges7622 no? Afghanistan was pointless, the situation is right where you came in plus hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians dead, and the chaos in Irak led to ISIS and it's fallout in the region plus an jihadi resurgence all over Africa. Those were absolutely catastrophic, idiotic, egoistic decisions. It's absolutely f'in disgusting and your statement shows your intellectual capacity which frankly is reason for worry.
Your incredibly wrong on multiple points
1.) America didn’t invade those regions as an judge but because lybia was killing its citizens and Iraq 2nd and 3rd highest officials said they were building nuclear weapons. And then the 1st highest official said he was
2.) The world under the Soviet Union would be vastly different a dictator would be the new normal and putting down civil protest gets expensally worse
Short answer: West was enabling China in last few decades and ignoring Russia in last decade. As result Axis of Evil grow, when West was entangled in petty disagreements over misguided US politics in Middle East.
One of the classiest channels on YT. Informative but not stuffy. I rarely do this but this channel deserves more love.
Word
I like the production and the level of detail but I dislike the obvious bias.
In one of the videos the creator said something like “we waited as long as possible until we had better news, but with a heavy heart we regret to inform you russia has made gains”
like wtf, don’t hide news and wait until you see something you like! what else are you hiding and distorting to something you like? I want to hear about what happened unfiltered so I can make my own judgements.
meh.. just repeating the official line isnt he though? No suprises is how you like it?
Do u expect "unfiltered" news? Please offer an example. Mate there is no unfiltered news. Given the YT platform and the American dominance this is a legit channel.@@azoury123
@@azoury123 He waited until better news came, but when that better news didn't come, he presented reality as it was. That's what I take from your comment.
As much as it makes sense for the US to lean into the current situation, I understand American frustration with many European states. Things like the EU promising 1 million artillery shells in 2023 but only delivering ~300 thousand shows that many European leaders are not taking the threat seriously.
........or they know something that we on the ground don't know and are getting their own houses in order before that "something" (which we don't know) occurs. Things only look irrational if you don't know the rationale.
Europe has a serious problem with pet projects eating hundreds of millions of Euros and they near universally consider their militaries a waste of money because the threats are so far away from their doorstep. when the USSR was dividing Germany in half places like France, west Germany, Belgium and Italy all were worried and took the threat seriously so they had much larger military programs but they decided to rest on their laurels after the collapse of the USSR and thought that they were never going to be challenged again.
now you see only those who are neighbors with Russia taking the threat seriously with Finland and Poland being some of the Leading "western" nations in military capabilities in the region and mostly former eastern bloc nations being the only ones to hold up their end of the bargain.
at this point I think this might cause some tensions between Central and western Europe as former USSR states begin to feel like they are going to get left high and dry being used as "buffer states" existing only to put distance between Russia and the western states.
@@dominuslogik484 europe has a serious problem with corruption. Look at Chancellor Scholz.
The scandal around wirecard is gigantic, its about billions of euros, just one month before election they halted investigations. Andreas Scheuer, german minister of traffic, has fcked up hundreds of millions of tax payer money for projects where EVERYBODY TOLD HIM ITS NOT POSSIBLE, but he still did it. Just today the german supreme court ruled that it wont further pursue the lawsuit surrounding his misdeeds.
Europe is ripe with corruption, I say it once more. RIPE.
If we can bring down russia in this war, it will be a true marvel. Not because europe cant, but because are politicians are so god damn CORRUPT that they wont do anything in service of the public. They only cater to their own damn desires and that of their industrial lobbyists.
Europe gives almost everything we currently have. We're far from ready living 80 years without a war.
Yeah, woke Europe is relying heavily on the US for support. Ukraine has tried that and now its economy, population is ruined. In my opinion, the best case scenario would be for Europe/EU fully support Ukraine with much more equipment and funding to deplete the Russian military whilst freeing up the US to focus entirely on China.
Corrupt American politicians are a very big problem here in USA 🇺🇸, both parties are terrible.
The reason for both parties is too shut the government down on their citizens.
every government is corrupt these days..reveals a lot about humanity
RFK Jr 2024!
Joe Biden!!! Is responsible
@@briancanfield5658 Not solely
Back in 2008 I saw a documentary or docu-drama called “The World Without Us” depicting the effects of the US becoming isolationist. Back then it was a piece of fiction, a thought puzzle for people interested in foreign affairs and the consequences of policy. We are now living the reality.
A world where the US isolates its self would force EU countries to combine their military powers together, in other words, they would likely be forced to take that role, which they've got the economy, manufacturing capabilities, skill set to do it but lack of need to do it, but the US isolating its self would be a massive incentive for Europeans in the EU to get their act together, after all, political will and direction changes on world events, just like the EU came about after the second world war.
But in truth, the US won't isolate its self for one simply reason, political and economic benefits to the US, the US isolating its self would actually hurt US political and economic interest, after all, the US doesn't have all these army bases around the world out of the goodness of their heart.
Much will depend on the results of the upcoming presidential election.
@@chrismoiser6477 Whoever gets in their, 1. It's 9 months away, believe me we don't have 9 months. 2. China is mass producing missiles. 3. Democrats also have flood us with a whole lot of Muslims since, 90s just a whole lot more since 12 till now. We are a Republic, its a contract as how the Constitution we are able to keep, because of the Declarations of independence We Americans have let them all overstep
4. More from illegals from the south and South America and our borders. Here everyone calling us white supremacy or whatever when their is more of them now, how long before they decide to call for White Genocide 5. UK is overflowing with Muslims everywhere now, like look around at Sweden. 6. Ukraine and Russia. 7 Israeli and Muslims. 8. Iran, and seriously, it's just a great big Shitshow honestly. 9. Then African its just a crap.
Just get right enjoy what you can, because it won't look the same within 2 year anyways. As we all knew that the Boomers going out would never leave us with anything, they were bent on destroying everything before they left this place anyways look, Putin, Our options both for POTUS, KC, and China leader they are all Boomers all 4 Powers is Boomers they said long ago, they'd leave us nothing well they're keeping that promise.
@@paul1979uk2000 whats that age old adage? "History repeats itself" or something similar. The USA has been isolationist before. This new project in post ww2 europe has been successful. they have been living under our nuclear umbrella for decades. That was part of the deal. They stop bickering and instead of funding their militaries to fight each other, they can focus on innovation and the economy while the US stands guard and takes on the military burden. They do NOT have the capactiy that we have to prepare and fuel a war. They gave that up when the USSR fell, naively. Its obvious they are learning from that short sighted policy, and the world better be grateful that the USA didnt follow suit and get complacent in a post USSR world the way Europe did.
Global Multiplayer War RPG
I never bought "the world was mostly at peace after WW2" narrative. Most of Africa and south Asia were engaged in countless conflicts. They only reason they did not matter was due to the fact it did not involve directly Western or Soviet countries. It only looks chaotic because now these conflicts are involving the West so now they can not ignore them.
That's fair, but even those wars were pretty low scale compared all things considered. If you take out Vietnam and Korea and a what many call the "African World War" it was relatively peaceful. Many of thos conflicts weren't the fault of America but the remnants of colonialism and ethnic or political division
Now compare those conflicts to WW2, and they don’t even hold a candle to the scale or causalities of that war.
Sure the numbers and candle analogy holds but also for a very different reason.
During ww1 and ww2 besides the western powers, their colonies had to go to war too on their side and resources were just extracted from those countries with utter disregard to colony populations. This in turn prolonged the wars, causalities and destruction. Its easier to fight a 6 year world war when 50 other countries are your colonies.
Situation is quite different now.
I did but post say 2001 the only constant now seems to be war.
Ongoing Wars: Israel-Hamas war, Myanmar civil war, Russian invasion of Ukraine, War in Sudan. So we have 4 wars currently ongoing. Not to mention the previous wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Azerbaijan etc.
@EatMyShortsAU There's only a couple of inter state wars going in rn. Civil Wars there are a few more but still
as a fin, i would bet that finland would not hesitate to defend estonia. not helping out would be too short sighted for us, since it is obvious that in this scenario russia would defeat all its' neighbors one by one
The problem is that this would have to be done in an unfavourable geographical situation, without strategic depth, with a real risk of losing a large part of the military potential. Poland or Finland could enter the war, but they might be inclined to launch offensive operations in their respective directions to tie up Russian forces. However, they would inevitably face nuclear threats.
@@GoodTimesBadTimes then everyone dies. Nuclear acts wont be ignored by US or China in all 3 scenarios mentioned in the video.
You honestly think Russia will invade a NATO country next instead of say Moldova? If so you got rocks in the heads, this is just a phys ops by the channel creator to get more funding for Ukraine.
@@GoodTimesBadTimes I would still argue the case of mutual defense since both the estonia and finland can close the gulf of finland quite tightly and because air force doesn't have to respect the geography the same way armies need to. The logistics of crossing over the gulf of finland would be a risky one, especially since there are so few suitable ports in estonia, but i'm guessing it would be doable if needed.What comes to nuclear weapons, as a citizen of a (new) nato member country, i feel that the nukes play less and less a significant role in these conflict scenarios. Anyway, awesome video once again!
@@TheKekkoslovakiai dont think anycountry directly joins helping estonia. But sure maybe 10.000 fin volunteers went there to fight against russia if they dont collapse within weeks.
As a turkish i know russia is huge threat for us since 1500s they took all turkic countries and humiliated ottomans. However i dont think many turks volunteered for ukraine.
But of course in case of russian invasion on turkey or finland these countries fight to death.
Stalin threatened turkey many times before and after ww2. Thanks to finnish resistance and operation barbarossa they didn't attack turkey. And later we joined nato in a condition sending korea 10.000 troops.
This is one of the most informative, neutral and realistic analyses of the current world state i have seen since ever. Thanks. Really enjoyed it. Journalism top form
This Chanel ain't neutral though is it 🙄
“Neutral” 😂😂😂
Well I would say informative and realistic but definitely not neutral
War is became normal this days
Looking at the comment section I can see how people is fed with bunch of information, thoughts about war
Everyone is talking about future war, like it’s a videogames
First it becomes an idea, then with enough amount of focus it becomes reality
Sadly it’s a whirlpool, where is no escape now
Noting to stop it(but there is solution)
Therefore focusing on wars will bring wars
The issue here for the West is twofold:
1) Fractuous internal politics have really crippled any long term geopolitical planning capacity. Especially within the US but also within the EU
2) Europe's military impotence makes it hard for Europeans to defend themselves should war happen and make America less keen on keeping the alliance system together. I think informed Americans know in their bones that Europe won't and/or can't help us if things go down in East Asia with China. We'll be forced to solely rely on the UK, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. With perhaps aid from Australia, New Zealand and maybe India as well. So it makes it hard to care about helping Europe when they won't or can't reciprocate the help because of decades of letting their militaries corrode. The only European country we can rely on is the UK
You can't compare Europe with the US in terms of military. The only threat to Europe since the second world war was/is Russia.
One luxury the US has that Europe doesn't have is its position. But the US can't possibly understand what it's like to have a vastly stronger country right next to them. The US has never been invaded or fought for its very existence like so many countries did in Europe during WW2. They've never had their cities demolished to rubble. Most European countries have seen enough of war and doesn't want to send their soldiers to half the world away when we are under threat from Russia. Especially when you live close to their borders.
I'm from Sweden and we've had several Russian planes and subs close to our borders. Wasn't too long ago when 2 Russian fighter jets armed with nuclear warheads was spotted right outside swedish airspace. And we're so far not in NATO. So why should we send the few men we have to the other side of the earth?
@@1991beachboy That’s not entirely true.
We were invaded by Britain in 1814… which was over 200 years ago.
Japan managed to snag a couple of islands off the Alaskan archipelago… that’s gotta count for something… right?
Pancho Villa attacked the capital of New Mexico in the 1910s…
Dude Poland is building its military up like crazy
@@chrissjduebochsjd3120 because Poland is next, not the Baltic states
@@chrissjduebochsjd3120 It's like there are two Europes , Old Europe and the Intermarium. Poland and the Intermarium are arming. It's interesting they are not receptive to Muslim immigration like old Europe was.
As for U.S. fractious politics .... the problem is very real as the world sees with the hold on Ukraine funds.
I think there are two main factors:
1. Afghanistan and Iraq wars. The US could interfere wth many conflicts and probably would had these two conflicts not been so messy and painful.
2. Proliferation of military capabilities and technologies. It's just easier nowadays for any random milita group or non-state actor or whoever to get their hands on weapons. Iran will fund it. Russia could fund it. Drug money could fund it. It's just easier than it used to be, more people are in positions to conduct military operations than before.
The first motive is due to the US thinking it could reshape the world at will after the end of the cold war.
To point #2: The proliferation of weaponry is true and available, but still not on the scale of American military power. These powers are still small, uncoordinated (generally), and inexperienced. While worldwide wealth has led to this proliferation, there's still plenty of arms controls in place to prevent the most advanced arms from getting into just anyone's hands...
your point number 2 is definitely a major factor in everything. most of the major players in geopolitics got comfortable with proxy wars and have proliferated weapons that otherwise would be impossible for non state actors to get a hold of. the thought of a terrorist cell having access to Anti-ship missiles, combat drones and missiles capable of shooting down high flying aircraft would have been insane to people back in 2003-2008 but today its considered pretty much widely expected.
Afghanistan was really the canary in the coal mine on this upcoming era when the US supplied Stinger missiles to the region, the US was definitely not the first to ever do something like this but it was definitely the tipping point showing what was to come.
Post-WW2 the USA was bribing everyone to NOT FIGHT (ala Bretton Woods). Now its no longer feasible to maintain these bribes so a more selective system of bribes/infrastructure will be built to maintain our need for precious metals and semiconductors.
I think to (everyone now) surprise, wars won't be as easily waged due to the fact that less people are going to want to die over nothing. Especially as technology progresses, and more technology becomes available to lesser of fortunate people. More and more people are gonna want to choose to live their life relatively peacefully, rather than running around with Mpads and machine guns, over causes that will never be fully understood or fulfilled anyway. And when you look at the United States professional military structure, that's exactly why the US gets stronger and stronger. And eventually all these holy wars and wannabe war lords will have less and less cannon fodder available for their causes. So as I was saying in the very beginning, I think world peace is around the corner. Like 2100's, if people living now were able to get a sneak peek into what life will be like in 100 years from now, we would all be really surprised. A lot of people predict more wars and more destruction and more fighting for world dominance. But I think as more time goes on, fighting someone else's war will become a meaningless dead end job that people just don't wanna do. Using religion to get cannon fodder motivated for their wars just won't have as much energy. And trying to use money to get broke cannon fodder motivated just won't have as much energy. Btw America is here to stay.
Great way to explain the world at this moment in time. The use of mapping and picture/flags to explain the different tension/war in the different areas of the world is great. It was easier for me to visualize and have a better understanding of todays reality.
Great job, first video, I am impressed.
To me ( a young gen z person from a country brutaly occupied during WWII) war lives on through family trauma, mostly conn eyed to food and money, and even I am affected by it
womp womp
@@sheikhmusa8442fr lmao
Interstate peace might be a new constant in post-war Europe, but I wouldn't universalize that. In Africa and Asia there were many wars during all this period. And in the americas we haven't had real wars since well before the 1940s. So that is a rather European vision
I think the reason why there are no real wars in the Americas anymore is because of the extreme power imbalance between neighbors. Nobody is going to start a war with Brazil over territory because Brazil is much more powerful than all of its neighbors but doesn't have any interest in the people or resources of their neighbors either so its seemingly balanced by its imbalance. nobody really believes they could gain anything from aggression and they all stand to lose everything if they tried it.
Not sure there were that many interstate wars not done as proxies to the superpowers at the time. The Middle East, yes. Africa, mostly civil wars supported by either superpower except for South Africa’s dealings in Angola? South America saw the Falklands war but that was limited in scope.
Europe is in decline thanks to deindustrialization by USA policy now Asia is the future
Europe is one of the most conflict-heavy regions on earth due to cultural diversity. "Peace" and "Europe" are rarely terms that should be used together.
@@LaFonteCheVi lmao Europe is the most conflict heavy region when the middle east and Africa exist 😂 there have been entire centuries in Europe devoid of major wars but Africa and the middle east are literally defined by warlords and death
Having studied Nuclear Battlefield within the US defense establishment, I would say the tacit understanding is nuclear weapons will not be used unless close allies or the homeland is invaded. Putin's continued statements about a nuclear Russia are interpreted as do not strike within Russia or the nuclear weapons will be deployed. The American restrictions on the Ukrainians are specifically done to prevent Russian nuclear escalation.
And such understanding may be treated as an asset by the Russians. In the event of war, e.g. Russia entering the Baltics - NATO starting offensive operations on other fronts, as Russia has non-defensible borders, might be much more effective deterrent. But this mechanism, as you describe, lets Russia pick the arena of confrontation, where they actually stand a chance. It would be much better for Poland or Finland to engage Russians in Karelia or Belarus, instead of defending Estonia on a tiny piece of land without strategic depth. All this creates significant security issues.
@@GoodTimesBadTimes U are underestimating the strategic importance of the baltics, the air superiority of Nato works best when they are supported by Navy. In case of a war, it is easier to take down the invading lines in the baltic area, take out Kaliningrad and move from there within Russia/Belarus.
@@GoodTimesBadTimes That is exactly why the cold war was dominated by proxy conflicts.
@@GoodTimesBadTimesAny NATO partner would be considered the homeland in this scenario.
lol, the "massacre in Chechnya", and the wars waged by the United States were "liberation", right?
As a European from a non NATO country I think part of the problem is that since 1991, European governments have disarmed (especially UK, France and Germany) and been very slow to realise the growth of non interventionism and in some cases even isolationism in the United States. The prospect of the U.S. actually leaving NATO is shocking for many. Looking at the Congress, vast majority did vote for a law requiring Congress to be consulted if a President decided to leave NATO. But we know from a precedent where Carter left a defence treaty with Taiwan in the 1970s that Trump - if he chooses - may be able to do this alone.
I think a second factor is the declining importance of the EU market, and the rise of China, India etc. This makes corporations more interested in Asia and less interested in Europe than in the past, though the US still exports 20% to the EU, not including Britain and Norway (a major oil producer). Soft-power (non military power) is about economics and trade routes. The Suez Canal is important on this too, and probably is a factor in US interest in the Middle East, as is supporting Israel because of the American Jewish and Evangelical vote.
Im not sure I would consider Afghanistan a "pointless war", given Osama Bin Laden was there when 911 happened. Iraq in 2003 was a pointless war.
That Congress passed that law means that Trump can’t abandon NATO like we withdrew out of the Taiwan treaty.
If the United States were really a powerful state, it would stop the conflict in Ukraine. And so, it looks only like cheap propaganda and justification of the hegemon on clay legs. One example, the Americans do not allow Ukrainians to use Abrams tanks so that the whole world does not see how quickly the Russians will reset these tanks (all destroyed leopard 2 tanks are proof of this). The author is scared and pours a fairy tale into the ears of his audience. The United States and NATO lost on February 24, and then it was just agony. PS and don't play with the Russians, because Rocket BUlava is keeping a close eye on the bad guys in the USA, EU.
Yeah, so waging a war against the whole Afghanistan just because of Bin Laden, who was chilling in Pakistan lol
He ain't president yet guys and no guarantee he will be. Hopefully RFK Jr wins it.
imho, it is a methodological mistake to claim, as you do at 0:45, that a dozen years ago we lived "in relatively peaceful times"...the aftermath of 9/11 was felt, in Iraq and Afghanistan; Russia was threatening NATO about expansion towards the East, back in 2009 already
It's a slowly increasing crescendo- the music started becoming audible with the collapse of USSR, Yugoslavia (also events in Africa) then after 9/11 it got louder, then 2011, 2014 and now since 2022 cumulative escalations.
Peaceful for you .. nothing peace for me. I lived in Iraq as a kid then raised with white supremacists as a teenager
America is becoming very dysfunctional & unstable. Our country seems to have zero interest in improving the lives of its own citizens. That is, our cities feel disconnected, soulless, bland, unaffordable, etc. I really don't like the direction modern America has gone. We could do so much better. I love this country. I just want to see things improve. i loved how in the 90's we at least had all sorts of places that people could live, unique things to do & places to go. Poor People, middle, upper class. There were places for anyone ~Nowadays we have universally unaffordable cost of living, rent prices, shop rent prices.. (unless you are wealthy) I don't understand how long we can continue to function in this extremely dysfunctional manner?? I hope things change. People stuck in poverty need places to live too.. it's ridiculous how our current system pretty much requires everyone to be financially well off 👍🏻 Yeah, that's so realistic (Not)👍🏻 it's completely impossible for everyone to be financially well off. We need living options. We need places that average people can live, poor people can live.. Raising wages just continually makes things worse because our country says "it Has to increase things" if minimum wage goes up. So it does nothing but make things worse. We need places people can live even if they make below average $ (look at all the rent prices right now? The same goes for the rent of local small businesses too. It's absurd. I know this because my mom runs a local small business in Oregon. So that's 2 insane rents to pay per month! It's the biggest challenge to afford rent. Profit isn't even really a thing. How stupid is that? What kind of quality of life is that?) This is Modern Day America 👍🏻 and when you look at our government, it doesn't seem like anything is going to be addressed or improved anytime soon.. Maybe multiple generations from now, idk?
Sounds like you need to explore your country a lot more. It could be a hell of a lot worse.
The 1990s was the last golden age of film, music, art, and dance. Everything turned to shit by the early 2000s.
@@juniorjames7076 Nah the 2000s were pretty good. Once we get to the mid 2010s things started to go down a bit more.
It has gotten bad with the political tribalism too, the amount of teeth pulling that needs to happen to get the left and the right to the same table just to try to solve the border crises is absolutely insane and its causing people to argue its a good thing that millions of people are showing up and burdening our institutions to their breaking point just so they don't have to admit there is a problem and that they would have to make an agreement with the "other side"
You're really just describing problems for those very dense coastal cities. Move to the interior, especially the Sun Belt, there's plenty of opportunity there. Your wage-to-rent ratio will be far more reasonable. You may even be able to afford a boat
We are living in truly interesting times. For us in Africa (Nigeria in my case), the geopolitical turbulence and shifts have always been happening but it is still surprising. We will all make it. I am sure.
Most of the countries that won’t make it are in Africa. Without an international, US enforced protection of maritime shipping, they will struggle to even feed themselves.
Yah I’m sure the people killed in those wars will make it too.
How's it there internally with the Christian south and Muslim north
@@lukewarm6369 Things with insecurity are bad but not largely due to religious tensions, I assure you. There are extremists on both sides but it is not so black and white. Christians, in the largely Mulsim north, are victims of islamic bandits and terrorist but the majority of the victims tend to be Muslims. Even in the largely Christian south, violent groups tend to target Christians and Muslims indiscriminately. Overall, our country tends to adopt a more secular view with regards to religion and politics mainly because we have no other choice and it's the only way to maintain civic nationalism here. Plus, thankfully, our armed forces, which has a slight Muslim majority, has been doing a decent job of pushing back islamic terrorists and maintaining neutrality in terms of religion or tribe, but they need to do more to reduce insecurity.
@@baneofbanesthis comment made zero sense
Lets not forget chaos is the default condition for the vast majority of human history, periods of global stability and peace experienced in the past 50 years is a complete anomaly as a consequence of American dominance after WW2.
Choose your ideology carefully as humanity can revert back into perpetual suffering if bad choices are make.
This video comments that Russia spent the first two decades of the 21st century "thoroughly modernizing it's military" - which is a ridiculous thing to say.
This video makes many true and interesting observations - and then adds highly generous and excessively optimistic observations about Russia. It also talks about American "autocrats" with no mention of public enemy no. 1, good ol' Vlad Putin.
This video is an example of an open society being barraged by propaganda from other countries.
Consume only with caution. It's quite clever... do not subscribe.
You have outdone yourself with this piece of accurate, logical and informative content.
This video and indeed this channel deserves more attention. Very well done.
True. Leaving a comment for the algorithm so more people can see.
Sorry to be that guy, but the very first sentence about Europe being at war. No.
Ukraine is at war.
Ukraine = Europe, is wrong.
Ukraine = One country in an arbitrary geographical region which we call 'Europe' is at war, would be more accurate.
If you say the first one (Ukraine=Europe) it sends children and Americans down all sorts of incorrect routes, and they come to all sorts of crazy conclusions. And then they rear-blast these errors all over the internet.
When we say 'Europe' we need to be careful, because there are a couple of understandings for that word.
There is political Europe, which may be understood as 'all westernized Europe, including UK and Switzerland'. Or just as the EU.
There is also geographical Europe which includes Ukraine, contested parts of the Balkans and parts of Turkey. Even Georgia too, iirc.
Europe is not at war, one constituent country of a randomly bordered region which we call 'Europe' is. Same was as a Canadian or a Mexican is technically "American". But still not American in the other sense.
@@tedcrilly46 "Well, technically we didn't have any world war. There were only wars involving arbitrary parts of the world!"
Jesus, you must be fun at parties!
@@mats8375 Not as much fun as when your /m0th-er gets the ping pong balls out.
Yes its a linguistic point. But one which is important. As we live in a world of ... well, you lil guys.
@@tedcrilly46 Dude my mom is dead. "And this is why we don't invite Ted!" 😄
I truly despise our, America’s, lawmakers who are bickering over whether to send Ukraine aid. Especially when its seemingly so easy to see that winning in Ukraine would be much better for us than a stalemate or their loss. Unbelievable that america has fallen so far
I think the increasing partisanship over the years are largely due to lack of an external adversary. The fall of USSR meant there are no longer any unifying political issues. This peace dividend means both parties and voters increasing looked to the other political party as a threat, hence the increasing partisanship. It's likely that a new cold war between US and China will likely result in greater cooperation between Republicans and Democrats.
its almost like Russia had been meddling with usa politics. putin has been fixing the republicans against America, you wonder why usa power decreased during trumps time
@@xiphoid2011I would like to add that liberal governments have always had a tough time dealing with proxy wars due to backlash of its own people. It is why our government seems to pull too many punches instead of going scorch earth. True reality is we can most definitely defeat most our enemies swiftly but our own people prevent us from doing that.
I agree 100%. Russia compromised Trump, and Trump as the most powerful politician in the Republican Party, has leaned on Republican politicians. Traditionally, the Republican Party was always strong on defense and deterrence; but now they want to give Putin the gift of large sections of Ukraine and forego broader deterrence directed not only at Russia, but also China. Reagan must be turning over in his grave (not to mention Eisenhower). It is absolutely foolish to cut off or significantly limit aid to Ukraine. We should be enhancing Ukraine's ability to take the fight to Russia to break out of this stalemated land war.
Как Украина может победить?
No more US led world doesn't equal to world in chaos
Option 1 is impossible, because no matter how much support the Americans and EU give Ukraine, they cannot give them manpower. Now the main and essentially unsolvable problem of Ukraine is precisely manpower.
This is one of the best videos I've seen on geopolitics in a long time. Relatively unbiased as well. Very well done.
its well designed, and i'd say its unbiased to a degree. But ill also say he's either in denial, or ignorant of NATO, the Euro aspect of it all.
NATO military forces have been training in all manner of combos for years, if not decades now. (pseudo example: Spanish, Greek, German, and Estonian Army forces meeting up in Poland to do military hasty defense drills. with UK and USA observers/advisers for AAR)
@@Gizziiusa The problem is not that our European soldiers are not trained well, the problem is that our militaries are absolutely tiny and we have absolutely no stockpiles to fight a war. Neither the UK, France, Germany or any western-European nation is even close to ready for fighting a full scale war. Finland, Poland and Ukraine are the only major countries taking their defense seriously.
@@eirikreigstad3649 never underestimate how fast it all ramps up if it comes to that. Look how fast the USA turned on a dime post Pearl Harbor.
And modern, developed countries are masters of it.
cmon, ya know the deal per Sun Tzu...appear weak.
Speculation=mental masterbation.
@@eirikreigstad3649 y'all should've tried to assimilate Turkey but you're to proud or racist to do that, or because they're muslim? Europeans have no one to blame for their mistakes except themselves, even the US managed to bring Saudi arabia, japan, south korea close to them, europeans simply too proud, racist to know that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and voila, by alienating Turkey for too long even tho they reached out for you, of course they will choose another friends, like the middle east, USA and Russia, if the Europeans wanted to, Turkey and Russia would've been very close allies, you created your own circle, now live with circumstances, not even Russia would cause troubles if they knew eastern europeans will die to fight for western europe
as an American i feel that the world often neglects that most Americans have the privilege of being ignorant and it not affecting them good examples being vivek currently who advocates the US abandoning its allies
Absolutely devastating if he wins
@@morecopemorerope4372 ? elaborate
@@endermarine1686abandoning our Allies would be the absolute dumbest move the US could make.
@@baneofbanes exactly its a horrible thing and we must stay a global power. but as a nation we are so lucky that our people dont have to care
@@endermarine1686 no we are not lucky, because we should care. People just choose not to.
@18:16 "The Pax Americana was stronger than it seemed to the main beneficiary, and guarantor, of this system, the United States." China, Iran, and other competing powers should take note - I'm no fan of the US, but despite the complaining you hear from Americans online, the US is hardly breaking a sweat fighting proxy wars in the Ukraine and the Middle East. A bit of inflation and political division is nothing. While continued global peace is in the US' best interest as global hegemon, like Revolutionary France, the US is easily capable of fighting simultaneously on several fronts.
The only things which prevents the Europeans from playing a role similar to US and China is their separation and their lack of will. If the Europeans really wanted, they could very well stand up for themselves against any invader because they got the capabilities, the infrastructure and the money to do build up a large and powerful army the russians would wish they had. Europe is such an economic powerhouse yet such a paper tiger. Its such a shame they arent a single state yet with equality for everyone and a military strong enough to do whatever the hell they want. Sadly, they focus still too much on the individual state rather than the whole continent.
IF they were to form a superstate and IF every EU citicen was okay with it and IF they could figure how everybody could be equal and IF they stop seeing each other as different and IF they wanted to play a major role, they certainly could. Its all in the heads of the people right now.
It's one hell of a false equivalency you're drawing between the US not getting militarily involved in Ukraine and not getting involved if Russia invades Baltic NATO states.
The same Americans who say, "What's Ukraine to us?" and "Why are we giving them so much money?" can say the same exact things about the Baltics. 😔
Eh not really. The arguments for not getting involved with Ukraine are mainly that it’s a poor eastern European nation that supposedly provides nothing for us.
@@baneofbanes The main argument(in comparison to the Baltic states) is that it's not a member of a defensive alliance with the US.
@@Rob_F8F I mean, they could, but it would hold far less weight if they were a member of a defensive alliance, wherein there was an agreement to defend each other in case of invasion.
@@todo9633 you think isolationists give a shit? They want the US to withdraw from NATO.
The countries that benefit from the US led global order need to do their part in maintaining it as well. This is the main complaint from the Americans. Almost no NATO nations care enough to spend their 2%.
Какая интересная система. Кто то извлекает выгоду, а кто то большая бензоколонка или страна фабрика, чьи граждане живут значительно беднее, если не за чертой бедности. Зато золотой миллиард нам рассказывает про "демократию". Ваши союзники выродились, они не готовы воевать за свои привилегии, а мы готовы.
There is plenty of blame to go around, but from an American perspective the last two decades haven’t exactly fostered an appetite for military interventions due to some really poor decisions and wars which undermined US reputation and standing with probably every country on the planet. The second Iraq war (motivated by actual lies) and the failure in Afghanistan emboldened Russia.
Trust me, Eastern Europeans are annoyed as fuck by this as well, maybe they think they are not in the front so they dont have to spend as much? i dont know but its fuck up
They dont understand that US can always just go into isolationism and this would be catastrophe for Europe, It's like they think world is full of birds and rainbows
Each country will always do what is better for them, so if US will feel EU is not doing as good job then US can just play for themself and leave and this scenario scare me. Empires rise and fall and I think Europe forgotten this lesson, At least the western Europe because every country who border russia spend at least 2% if not more now.
@@SuperAnimationer yeah, we in the USA know that nations that are in the direct line of China and Russia; Japan, South Korea, Taiwan for China, and Poland, Baltics etc for Russia, do their part and appreciate the US. Our problem is more with the Western Europeans who tend to free ride off us, and then also criticize us for our troubles in how we approched complex, difficult situations
@@AW-zk5qb Isn't it okay for the United States to go back to the Americas? It's useless to criticize China all day, after all, China hasn't been at war for a long time
I’m a proud Patreon supporter of this channel. Once again, this last video of 2023 proves it deserves it. Peace to all of you in 2024.
slime
Asalamu alaykum
No one learned from the fall of Rome the answer is greed
The unipolar moment was the moment of US hegemony in which they solved issues as they willed, not according to pré-established rules. The situation in Iraq makes it more obvious than any other, although examples abound.
I do think some of this came from the loss of a unified purpose with the collapse of the USSR which was for all people around the world a rather sudden occurrence. almost nobody in the west or the US thought in the 80s that the USSR would crumble in the next decade.
Power corrupts.
I mean, they ENFORCED the rules, but there was no one to make them follow the rules themselves. That's why I support a multipolar world with Europe as a second superpower, because we'd be able to, at least in theory, enforce the rules on one another. A multipolar world with Russia or China rising as a second superpower would be a disaster for the world.
@@braedonallen4291 historically speaking that hasn't worked... all the great powers of Europe and the majority of wars being fought against each other... a multipolar world means more conflict. Or at least that's my take.
@@braedonallen4291 Europe and the US are so closely aligned that it wouldn't really be multipolar. I don't really like India but at least they are a largely neutral party in all of this so economically speaking they do make a decent counter balance without being an existential threat like China and Russia are as India has no dreams of conquest against its neighbors that are plainly apparent.
As an American this also has alot to do with domestic issues as well. Republicans are calling for less aid to Ukraine and more isolationist policies not because they favor Russia or wish to retreat from the world stage, but because they see Europe as free riders and need to step up. The Republicans recognize these options presented and have chosen option 2. The democrats believe option 1 is possible however for that to work Europe would need to take responsibility and confront Russia which isnt happening. So the divide at home for America is accelerating this decline. Americans need to commit to a strategy or one will be made for them. Its either an empire or Isolationism they need to decide quick.
If America decides to isolate and let the rest of the world dismantle their achievements (option number Stupid), I wouldn’t mind them taking their time so that the rest of the West can have at least some time to adapt and unite when abandoned by American populists.
b.s. Republicans absolutely favor Russia *and* want to retreat from the world stage. The only war they want to fight is a civil war; not coincidentally, Putin's and Xi's dream come true. The whole free rider narrative is Kremlin propaganda. The US was fine having Europe dependent on it for decades and assumed massive power because of this dependency.
Based on America's likely candidates, the rest of the world--especially BRICS+, will force Option 3 and start replacing the U.S. Dollar with the Chinese Yuan.
No they’re calling for it because they either want to retreat form the world stage, or for a the most fringe minority, support Russia.
@@ChadSimplicio except BRICS doesn’t want to adopt the Yuan.
The world has always been in flux. These are relaxing times, in comparison with the past!!!
Study a little history!!!!! Books!!!!
Exactly lol
With ally like America who needs enemies... Greetings from Poland
Without any doubt, the best geopolitics chanel on youtube, thank you for everything that you do brother, fantastic content as always!
Hubert, this was a masterpiece. It is an honor to be your fellow European.
This video is bullshit that utterly and ridiculously diminishes Europea and portrays it as short-sighted American puppet. It is ridiculous and insulting. The idea that Russia will be able finish the war in Ukraine in a few years and then attack the Baltics is pure Russian fantasy.
This is the most difficult test of democratic regimes, where state decisions are not made without public opinion. Autocracies like Russia have learned how to manipulate mass opinion, honing their propaganda since the days of the USSR and bringing it to maximum effectiveness over the past 20 years. You can see the following results when Elon Musk says that "the eastern regions of Ukraine are Russian-speaking, and therefore Russia has the right to annex them", you can see how citizens of European countries refuse to support bleeding Ukraine, because now their burger costs 10 cents more. But what's up, you can see how in my native Ukraine, people sitting under Russian shelling in basements say that it was the Americans who quarreled us with russians.
Assuming the writing in this video was indeed original, and not plagiarized, it was done extremely well!! A blend of historical facts, mixed with a realistic view of potential futuristic outcomes. Using those historical facts as the basis of your predictions…. Well done sir !!! 👏
You cannot plagiarize facts.
There aren't many geopolitical channels that are not connected to the mass media.
GTBT is the biggest on YT. They have, I think 7 channels ( PL EN DE UK RU FR SP)
Yea realistic as declaring no one in NATO has no balls to defend NATO.
I'm from Latvia. Videos like these keep me awake at night. Especially when you predict that we will be abandoned by everyone in case of a Russian invasion.. and that the invasion is to be expected in the near future.
Путинская система может провалиться в себя, чисто из-за внутриполитической ситуации. Этот год многое покажет, если система в рф останется неизмененной, то риски будут и увы не малые.
It is being decided. But, in a negative cascade of events - yes that is possible. Probably, it is good to have a backup plan also on a personal level.
No offense but why would Russia invade your crappy little country and risk WW3 with NATO when they can simply take over Moldova and/or Armenia with little or no consequence?
It's better to be positively rather than negatively surprised so expecting the worst is a sound strategy for survival.
You are correct in that case the prudent thing to do would be to station troops there from countries like Poland, US, UK French and Germany plus Latvians before Russia invades. @@cyberfunk3793
Welcome to the Multi-Polar World. This is what everyone wanted, isn't it?
nah. We need it to stay a US led unipolar world
@@AW-zk5qbWhy ?
The West imperialists with globalist agenda aren't good for anyone.
what about the chinese attacking russia in their moment of weakness to conquer manchuria and siberia?
What needs to be corrected in this video is that China's rise actually started in 1949, from 1949 to 1978, China's industrialization was very fast, during this period, China established a number of industries such as automobiles, aircraft, aerospace, nuclear energy and so on. By 1978, China had developed a fully independent modern industrial system under Mao's industrial plan, becoming the fifth largest industrial country in the world.
In addition, in the 1950s, China began to popularize basic education and civil medical care, and built a large number of water facilities to irrigate farmland and prevent floods (China was the world's most severe country in floods and droughts before the 1960s).
Without Mao's foundation, second-generation Chinese leader Deng would never have been able to make China's economy soar.
This is a great overview of the year in geopolitics, but I think analysts often overinflate the power of Russia and China. To be clear, this isn't to dismiss the power and ambition they do have, but watching the limp Russian offensive barely going through a former colony has been pretty enlightening. There's also been a Chinese reapproachment towards the US, which, for any other liberal democracy (say the Phillipines), this would be a sign of hopeful sign of genuine cooperation... but for a totalitarian CCP, this is a sign of weakness. With that said, for as ambitious Russia/China is, the West seems - and I hate to say this - just as bored with global politics. And what global politics IS discussed, it's done through a partisan, ideological lens for the sake of partisan, ideology. It's depressing. Until liberal democracies resolve our own internal challenges, we're paralyzed. It's so depressing.
Agreed. Russian military power has shown they couldn’t possibly sweep across Europe. They can’t even take towns 300 km from Moscow.
Even with this, China is still overlooked for what they are, what they do and who they are
The Philippines a liberal democracy lol. You mean US puppet.
Anyone who thinks the CCP is "totalitarian" has never been to China.
To be fair to the ruskis they are essentially fighting the US and Europe through Ukraine, who currently hold Europe’s most powerful army by a considerable margin. Russia’s current winter offensive in Ukraine is having sweeping successes across all fronts, and the fact Ukraine is struggling to secure additional funding does not bode well for their ability to outlast the Russian war machine. If the US do decide to detach themselves from Europe and follow a policy of isolation, which is what Trump promises to pursue if he is re elected, then I fear Europe will be at the mercy of Putin, who has an military that is currently 3,000,000 strong and a male population of 66 million, which dwarfs all other European countries.
Also, the phallacy that Ukraine is experiencing any kind of dramatic advantage from its supposedly advanced NATO military equipment is also worryingly being proved false. Just look at the number of Bradleys currently littering the battlefield in Avdiivka.
In summary, I think people are quite justified to be worried about Russia’s potential in Europe.
Spoken like a true Pole. I do agree on the thesis and recommended action, but I don’t think it helps the case to (1) intentionally and pessimistically misread the US a smidge, and (2) do this whole thing without highlighting rising European giant Poland itself.
What do I mean by “misread the US”? Do Europeans realize how beholden to rules made in Brussels our businesses are (SWIFT, GDPR, etc)? You’d better believe Americans are more than aware on a daily basis that Europe has “woken up” to not only be in position to defend itself but also that it can itself wield “big sticks”. I’m a Blue ‘merican, but on this point I see where the Reds are coming from. They’re not making it up out of superstition. We’re happy to run our economies in conjunction with our Brussels partners, but we _know_ now that when we measure GDPs, Europe can’t honestly play the “poor little fragmented us” card anymore.
That said I don’t think most Americans appreciate Germany’s positive role so far, particularly in absorbing the energy hit. Germany had a very bad rep for defense free-riding among Americans. A reputation Japan doesn’t have, btw. Many haven’t shed that opinion yet. This opinion has been building up brick by brick for a long time - it can only be reversed with a lot of honest truth-telling.
If I can go one step further, whether its smart or not, a lot of ground-level Americans are jealous of European social safety nets. And so on. Point being - don’t oversimplify the “isolationist” impulse as genuinely “isolationist” - it’s more, “why are we giving away our cake when they seem to have cake over there already”.
Well put together. Will be interesting to see wheter the European military build up will be fast enough to start shifting the views of EU support from the US as "charity work" in a way.
Nice video essay. Would have been nice if you had added the perspective of Japan and Australia as well. They factor in for the upcoming issues in East Asia.
Why can't we, as a global society, invest these enormous amounts of money into improving living standards worldwide? Why don't those 'I want to be world leader' countries utilize their resources to create a better world to live in? I'm from Romania, Europe, bordering Ukraine, and living in post-Soviet/Communist poverty under a corrupt government that operates similarly but confines its actions to the nation due to the limit of their power. I face day-to-day struggles to improve my circumstances and now am threatened by the prospect of a war starting. Yay!
Humans have never been good at long-term planning.
People like you, and I, with these good ideas don't get into power because we aren't willing to step on people for it.
And, when you have never seen a poor person, why would you give a shit about them?
These are the perspectives of our leaders. They are all corrupt and will march straight into their own demise, and they will take us all with them.
But Russia didn’t “thoroughly modernize its army.” It merely reduced its manpower while maintaining Soviet military doctrine both in utilizing mass over precision in its weapons systems and how it employed infantry (without having mass in terms of men).
I have never said that it has been a successful modernisation ;)
Посмотрим как "цивилизованные европейцы" своими маленькими армиями наемников, профессионалов и добровольцев будут воевать в настоящей затяжной войне, где в конечном итоге решает количество, а не качество.
we currently see Russia loosing the war; break up of the Federation will likely follow. No one wants to be the last ones to be called Russian, as they will be paying the bill.
@@foss9455lol you cant even beat the ukrainians
even? lol@@peterheinzo515
I have lived in Russia all my life, 40 years. I used to have hopes that everything would be fine in the future and we would become a democratic country, sooner or later. however, now I have completely lost the sense of the future. When Ursula von der Lein made her first statement after the start of the war, she said “we are depriving Russia of a bright future and prosperity,” I wanted to cry. how can a woman say this to our women, children, and elderly people? How can you take an entire country, 150 000 000 people, and make everyone guilty at once? I see nothing here except Nazism. maybe the purpose of her statements was to raise an uprising in Russia, but how stupid you have to be to think so? As a result, now not a single normal person in Russia supports European policies.
I came to the conclusion that now in Russia you can function best when you imagine yourself as a corpse. nothing that happens bothers you or leads you astray, otherwise you can only sit crying from morning to evening, or commit suicide (as some of my friends did)
The best way to keep your sanity is to stop news watchin completely, that's what my girlfriend did. At the same time, many people continue to watch television out of habit, where they are attacked by propaganda 24/7, even through advertising and humorous programs, children's TV shows, and there are no alternative television channels. a normal person should give up television completely and either not read news on the Internet, or, like me, read and imagine himself as a corpse who doesn’t care (so the panic does not affect decisions made in life), but who always needs to hold a bag with things and documents at the ready to escape from the next mobilization (which last time was announced in the morning after the evening statement that mobilization was not required).
We can also add to this the fact that I cannot simply leave for a European country, firstly it is very expensive, secondly, I have a mother and older brother here, and thirdly, because many countries have closed their borders to Russians, so these countries are literally forcing me to stay in Russia and go carry out the orders of criminals. this world solves its problems in a rather strange way, sometimes it seems to me that all this is some kind of global plan, the goal of which is not world peace, but the total oppression of some people by others. and I found myself among the oppressed simply because I always voted for democratic politicians, love my country, played for 15 years in a rock band, and was always against Putin.
I dont understand how Venezuela could physically get to Guyana to invade. Theyd have to go right through a mountain range and rainforest. Good luck with that one.
Also is it weird I like nukes? I honestly think thats the only thing thats stopped WW3 so far, ironically.
Nukes r gud
It's Venezuela that wants to invade not Brazil. But Brazilian territory may be possibly used.
I think the neo-cons would love venezuela to invade guyana so they could finally topple the Bolivarian revolution and take all their oil
I meant Venezuela, but theres only one road into Guyana that avoids the mountains and rainforests and it goes south through Brazil. Brazil would never allow Venezuela to use it so how are they gonna GET TO Guyana?@@jirislavicek9954
@@jirislavicek9954 Then they'd be declaring war on Brazil in addition to Guyana. Does Maduro know about what happened when Paraguay decided to try and become a major power in South America if not then he's making the same mistake by attacking Brazil, also he does know that if he tries that the US will likely bomb Venezuala, the Biden Administration as shit as it is does not actually authorization to bomb Venezuela if Maduro does actually decided to invade Guyana.
Europe for too long has relied on the US to protect them. Same goes for Japan and South Korea. We have a good life here, and we can defend our own borders and that is all we should need to do. We are sick of losing our sons and our treasure over pointless conflicts that do us no good. We will not defend Taiwan, or Japan, or South Korea, or Europe. So you best work on your own defenses. As an American I can say we have ZERO appetite for your wars.
Our wars? What about your BS wars based on lies that you dragged Europe into? Bombing the middle east caused mass migration of illegals into Europe.
Do you understand the cause of the war in Ukraine at all? Russia told Kiev to stop shelling the Donbas region over 8 years ago, a region whim identified as Russian and were being punished for it. They decided to make good on their promise to act if the bombing didn't sop and liberated Eastern Ukraine (in their eyes.)
There is no reason for them to invade other nations like you theorise.
Geopolitics is one of the most complex rubrics cubes imaginable. Thank you for laying this out so clearly!! One of the best explanations Ive ever heard.
This channel overhypes the importance of Europe. Just taking for granted that the fall of Ukraine automatically means the fall of NATO as a whole. A coalition of the Baltics, Poland, Finland, and Romania could beat Russia.
Edit: Not to mention that Europe has been continuously declining as a percentage of global GDP, while East Asia has been rising.
You are underestimating Russia based on what you have seen in the first stage of the invasion. The are adapting to modern battle tactics and how to work agains western weapon systems.
No other army (except ukrainian) has such combat experience.
Last but not least, if Ukraine collaps politically (which is possible based on last news), Russia can achieve victory which will end up not only in taking ukrainian resources but to use feelings of ukrainians (West betrayed us) and give them a motivation to fight alongside russians against european countries.
The hate between ukrainians and russian will stay, but it will be a common enemy for both parts.
And the very last thing. Russia is not sensitiv for losses of people, the can afford to lose couple of millions for a great Russia. What about western societies, are they willing to fight and die in big nimbers? Pretty doubtfully...
@user-ir9ml6kz3s Considering the military capacity of just the nations I mentioned, if you then took all of the EU's might it could literally steamroller Russia. We mustn't forget that part of the reason neither side can push out the other is because of massive corruption within the former USSR.
On paper, Russia is not a threat for Europe at all.
But in reality, Europe lack coordination and combat readiness to avoid being surprised by a quick Russian offensive.
USA fill those gaps at the moment, but Europe could easily fill it themselves if they wished.
Sadly, mostly due to German government, it's not yet the case.
@@ArthurGencer It's wishfull thinking my friend.
Not one of the countries you listed has combat experience in classical conventional war. All of them have limited combat effectiveness, since they are primarily military-police forces capable of carrying out individual operations against opponents that are obviously weaker than them.
Which is understandable, even in its worst nightmare Europe could not imagine a conventional war in the European theater.
I am not yet talking about the military-industrial potential, which has degraded in Europe over the past 30 years, while Russia has largely restored it.
The Russian armed forces have electronic warfare systems that largely offset the technical superiority in the weapons systems of NATO countries. They learn and have resilience and, despite losses, are able to achieve their goals.
Not to mention the fact that they have their own allies and partners who are capable of transferring weapons to them in large quantities (Iran, China, North Korea).
The only country capable of resisting Russia in a conventional war (especially if the Ukrainians go with them) is the United States.
If the isolationists win in the states, Europe will have nothing to oppose to the pure military force of Russia.
You view Russia through an illusory picture imposed by the media, which does not show the full depth.
The situation is very serious.
@@mrsupremegascon What you're saying about Europe is what people thought would happen to Ukraine. Ultimately there are numerous capable NATO members that could easily thwart Russia. Including Turkey, France, Finland, and Poland. Although Russia certainly has a capable military, its inefficiency and corruption will not allow it to blitz into Central Europe as people think.
I love ❤️ the Dracula accent explaining WAR and geopolitics
We watch USA fall as a global hegemon in slow motion. They poured 4 000 billions into Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and hesitate to spend more than 50 billions into war against former USSR.
EU (member states) need to brace themselves and improve military capabilities by a lot. EU needs to support Ukraine to fight as long as they can, hoping for Russia's collapse, as Ukraine cannot win this war on the battlefield and regain pre 2014 borders without order of magnitude higher USA support.
Or there is something we do not know and USA is conserving military potential for something different. I don't know which of the option is worse for free Europe.
with comments like “china doesn’t care about human rights or democracy” the very same thing can be said for the US and the EU. This video is definitely framing as the west as the good guys like they haven’t been responsible for some of the most violent incidents in modern times.
The US and EU at least pretend to care about them. China doesn’t even do that.
And yah compared to China and Russia America and the west are the good guys.
no one is perfect but the US led West is definitely better than the other actors
@@AW-zk5qb yet we don’t strive to be better and our society is collapsing but hey we’re better than the other guys!
@@inteljumperxx 哈哈哈哈
A top class analysis from GTBT! As a Ukrainian I wish everyone the peaceful New Year! For Ukraine - victory first .
Jfyi... Ukraine cannot win...
@@4epa1012whatever russian bot
@@4epa1012Afghanistan will not defeat the USSR and the USA, probably said smart guys
@@Dar3MaxtaS that was then, this is now. Ukraine is losing, even the western media saying that Russia is on it's way to winning
@@Dar3MaxtaS You can't compare both wars. The war in Ukraine is fought for the very existence of Russia, and they will do anything not to lose, including using nuclear weapons as a last resort.
I am a proponent of the "hard no", though I used to be a proponent of Option 2.
Liberalism and democracy is proving year by year to be a colossal failure. Reality is beginning to catch up with us that these man-made secular ideologies are impractical at best, and downright evil at worst. WhatIfAltHist does a decent job at explaining the real pragmatic reasons why every government, including China, is severely struggling to keep power AND the civilization as a whole is on the verge of collapse by the 2030s.
Isolationism is inevitable, and it is the only way to guarentee our own survival. Europe and Asia need to pivot if they wish to defend themselves by the 2030s.
Even without nukes, a world war would mean everyone loses and nobody wins. Every government and system involved will fall.
Shut up shut up shut up insufferable authoritarian
The U.S. biggest problem is the current weak incompetent leadership, hopefully next election strong leadership will regain our place as #1 superpower.
The US should set priority number 1 for the CIA as regime change in Russia.
....are you so sure the FSB didn't beat them to it?
That wouldn’t be too pretty, could lead to political and economic turmoil in Russia and probably even a civil war. The USA goal shouldn’t be to collapse Russia that would make us no better than Russia trying to do the same in Ukraine, just like the USA goal shouldn’t also alienate China to a breaking point. It’s needs a balancing diplomatic strategy.
Russia, China and north Korea are all still major problems globally. all three of these states are relatively young and mostly products of the cold war so they still try to run the world like a century we left behind. basically relics of the century of global conflict doing all they know how to do.
@@juniorjames7076 the russians are incompetent at anything.
Well, in Russia, the devil you know is always better than the devil that you don't know.
So maybe is not the best idea.
Your calm, confident and Linguistic style made this so easy and comfortable to listen to.
Thinking NATO wouldn't defend NATO is dumb.
Europe was once plagued by war. I believe know well enough to prevent war from happening.
They should have their own individuality instead of simply listening to Europe
Just like almost 110 years ago, Russian imperialism supplied and trained Black Hand and supported Serbian eastward expansion because that way they could weaken Austria-Hungary before going against it, but that obviously didn't go where Russians planned.
Neither will this time.
100 years ago the first world war had two goals. Isolate Russia and break up the Austria. Hungary empire into manageable chunks. Which the west was successful at. But they did not consider communists being as difficult as they turned out to be. And the ensuing 100 years nearly brought us to extinction. Personally I'm afraid the West has a similar goal now. Break up Russia and isolate china. I'm concerned because I think that's what Putin is assuming. And if that's the case he and china would be more than willing to gamble everything to keep that from happening. Which means all our war with most of Asia. And that will be very very bad
I still wonder what the world would be like if the Russian empire never fell to the Soviets. so much culture and history of eastern Europe was annihilated and the power vacuum left by the collapse of the Empire resulted in things like the Turks genocide of the Armenians because they didn't fear retribution from the Czar's armies. The Czar had always considered all orthodox Christians to be a protectorate of the Russian Empire; this was enough for the ottomans to tone down their persecution of Christians and I imagine it would have been enough to prevent the genocide in the 20s.
Be careful for what you wish for when the god's wish to destroy you first they answer your prayers, when upsetting the established paradigm not all the changes will be to ones benefit
We will see
Все будет, главное иметь немного терпения.
Good luck to us all...
God Speed…. God Speed for us all
Good script, who wrote you that? Hollywood or MI6?
Poland sure love their friend Stephan Bandera 🤣🤣🤣
This video is actually genuinely underated and damm and this is actually the actual real China that the actual American and British BBC propaganda mainstream media actually don't show you is actually really like and actually capable of actually doing
personal opinion, I think a combination of option 1 and 3 is most likely. The amount of supports provided to Ukraine from US seems sufficient from US point of view which is sufficient supports from US and EU (which will slowly swift to more from EU) to keep Ukraine afloat and slowly bleeding Russia, while buying sometime to let US move supply/production chain back to new world and strengthen its influence in pacific region. while trying to strengthening other power in south Asia and creat a 'second' front for PRC. while for PRC, it maybe get into a very dangerous state: a wounded strong animal, which is strong enough to cause major chaos while it is eager to do some as fighting maybe the best chance to keep what it has. the only thing is certain is that a major conflict among major and medium power will create new unstable world and likely lead to another major conflicts, until the powers are balanced again
yeah well, the main reason Taiwan matters at all, in fact the entire Pacific theatre, is it's semi conductor industry incl. supply chains. A Chinese move on Taiwan would immediately end US technological capacity beyond its current stock (tiny) meaning the US would 100% intervene in Taiwan with full might. Japan is another critical supplier (wavers) thus having a similar effect. Again. This is at the heart of American technological prowess and they will fight to death to maintain that capacity. It's not even a question.
That being said, they are re-shoring production as we speak. In 10 to 15 years the US will produce cutting edge chips domestically and that's when they will completely withdraw from the Pacific. 100%. Slow at first but then very sudden (think Afghanistan).
I get the impression, at least from the US that they want the war in Ukraine to drag on to bleed Russia of its resources to hurt its economy, which happens on two fronts, man power and economic resources Russia is having to throw into the war effort.
Both the EU and US are more than capable of supplying the arms needed to Ukraine to end this war far sooner than it's likely going to be and really, both the EU and US needs to get their act together because things are getting unstable around the world, it's going to be costly for both the EU and US having to deal with the conflict in Ukraine whiles other wars are braking out and I know some will say we won't intervene but things are braking out in a lot of regions around the world that if we are not careful, things could escalate that it forces us into the war.
If there is ever a time where we need strong leadership from the EU and US, it's now, because I suspect a lot of these wars are braking out because of poor leadership from the powers that have the clout to do something about it, and I'm wondering, how far are we going to let things escalate before we put our foot down, basically, nip these things in the bud before it gets out of hand, which we are seeing early signs of that now.
An intriguing cover for sure! However I think an important factor emerging in Eastern Europe is Poland. If Russia wins in Ukraine, and threatens the Baltics, we could see Poland finally take the stage and stand up to Russia itself. I do believe though Ukraine is a critical moment and will decide the future of Geopolitics.
Poland simply occupies Lviv and other territories where Poles live. Hungary also occupies part of Ukraine. This is how it ends. This is only if Russia is in Kyiv. This scenario is unlikely. Poland may demand its former territories from Ukraine in exchange for assistance.
7:35 Yes the US did interfere in Chechnia, just not directly, but they were funding t-word's like they've done in other countries before.
From the US to the EU: build up ur damn military. Especially since American politics are so unpredictable, and at the drop of the hat we could abandon you all, and then what?
There's no money what can I say
@@dtekiddo8400 “there’s no money”. Yet we give billions to failing industries around the western world. Don’t tell me there’s no money, when the only limiting factor is our own inefficiency.
@@spacebar1008 Billion to who check it for yourself European countries are are in Deficit y'all wanted to play enforcers and advocate for decolonization of our possession all around the world after WWII *those possession where a guarantor of defence economic growth and development the loss of those territories meant economic lost lost of political power on the world stage and everything that comes with it now we play the role Assign by the US so y'all have nothing to say
*Geography plays a lot in economic prosperity And Europe compared to Russia, China or the United States is not very spoiled in Raw material or natural resources it's about efficiency it's about the deck of cards you have
so take a sit
I must have come across at least four channels asking why the world is in flames on my RUclips feed this week now
Yeah I have even seen people on the political left starting to ask why everything is on fire which is interesting because they are the side politically in control of pretty much everything globally for the last 4 years.
and, how did we go?
YT channels be slangin' fear.
I think that outside observers underestimate the American instinct towards isolation. We have everything we need in the Continental USA, we don't learn other languages, are an ex-colony not colonizer, and were made the guarantor after the collapse of the British empire. We really don't want to be the world's police even if we enjoy the benefits.
There is no hope that would happen today with the armament Poland built up. Poland is military much stronger than Ukraine.
Technically you are also a coloniser.
Remember, Christopher Columbus is the ancestor of modern americans, not for modern Brits. and him and his lackeys colonised "New England" and killed its natives.
As for having everything you need, that's also wrong. Many core components of technology are sourced from overseas in Asia and Europe, and manufactured there too.
You have point but also missed something crucial, the United States is part of the Globalized world without it everything else crumbles, worse yet even if the US wanted to pursue isolationist policy, i do not believe the rest of the world will allow it to do so, many countries have built themselves around US hegemony without it they too are gone so it is likely that they would do everything possible to not let the Americans become isolationist, in a way the American population and its voiced opinion will likely be overshadowed by the rest of the world opinion on issues.
The U.S. cannot maintain the lifestyle and standard of living of its citizens enjoying today without maintaining world order (while extracting benefits through the dollar).
@@BlueEyedVibeChecker Columbus never even set eyes upon North America.
As an American, you seem to be missing one critical factor in this analysis.
We don't want to pay for Europe's defense anymore. Western Europe got the 80 free ride and have done little to change this. The entirety of Europe's "high" standards of living goes through the shitter as soon as they have to start *really* paying for their own defense, even if that's at a minimum of what they're ***REQUIRED*** to be spending to be in NATO. It's quite literally just the Finns, Poles, and the Baltic states who meet or exceed this. Korea and Japan exceed this, so if Europe doesn't step up, I wish you luck. We will start watching from afar.
As a French, this is all we ask since we asked Americans to leave French soil in 1958.
To be fair, the only real offender is Germany, rest of Europe doesn't count on USA at all.
France and UK have their own projection forces
Spain and Italy are focused on the Mediterranean which is not covered by NATO or USA.
Nordic and Intramarum countries are well armed or in the process to be well armed.
Then there is small European countries, but we can't count on them anyway.
Germany don't care, there is 2 mid sized countries between them and Russia, and they know that Russia can't even invade Ukraine, let alone Poland.
By the way, the problem isn't money, European defense budget is 4x larger than Russian one, the problem is coordination and combat readiness.
One thing where I disagree is about secreficing the Baltics. Even if US western countries would not commit to the cause I am quite confident that eastern eurpean countries within NATO and Scandinavian countries would comit to the NATO principle. And considering that Poland is becoming an EU millitary powerhouse and russia is not doing so well I believe Poland would be the first one who would jump in and eliminate the question about suwalki gap and the engagement of the rest of the NATO.
The conclusions of this analysis leave out very important facts including demographics, economics, geography, and infrastructure therefore leaving it's conclusions untenable.
The unipolar system was always destined to end, it’s simply unsustainable. China may or may not have a accelerated the timeline but even if China never recovered from Mao the end of the current global order was always going to happen. Instead of asking why this is happening we should be asking who are going to be the winners, who are going to be the losers, and how our respective nations can best play our cards to give us our best respective positions. China has played its hand poorly, they’ve squandered their potential for short term benefits and put themselves in a bad position which will leave them incapable of acting when the current order fades and the new order comes into being. We are in for some interesting times my friends.
Had China played its hands right, most or all of Africa would be firmly in the BRICS+ Sphere, and expanding rapidly to Latin America. But the PRC could've done alot more than bring economic influence. It could've brought cultural influence too--make much of the world have an appreciation for Chinese art, music, and media. Ut could've been a real leader in moving to green energy. It could've influenced more leaders to adopt Putinism or even Chinese Communism, even make Miele or Lula follow Maduro's lead. If it had done that, then they would've had every right to build "UN 2.0" in Shanghai, among other things.
China plays hands for short term benefits? It’s not the longest continuous civilization standing (5000+ years) for nothing. Very few things China does is for short term gains, it mostly play the long game.
circling the drain,
dwindling resources,
time running out,
global warming,
war brewing,
nuclear winter
21:30 just to tell, next to the baltics in europes largest military force, POLAND
Pretty much anyway you look at it. Supporting Ukraine seems logical.
Completely disagree with the conclusion made in the video.
Europe will NOT be a reliable ally when the time comes for a US-China standoff, so there is no reason to bleed resources defending an ungrateful continent that cannot be depended upon to repay the favor of defending Ukraine when it comes to Taiwan (or even South Korea).
It would be far better to shift the entirety of our Atlantic resources to the Pacific, bolstering existing allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines and throwing around enough money to turn the entirety Southeast Asia in our favor.
He said that abandoning its allies once again will make the US unreliable. Europe will have to get along with Russia, which is currently siding with China. In such a case, how can you be sure that Taiwan, the Philippines or even Japan or Korea will want to side with the US at all instead of trying to negotiate with China and avoid war on the side of such an ally?
"Seeing as China had no interest in democracy or human rights." LOL.
Why are you talking more about Ukraine when the US is doing more for Israel?
Idk why. But I blame the french for all of this.
I think the French really could help by not being the fifth column all the time and undermining their allies over weird petty historical grievances from centuries ago.
@@dominuslogik484and then they wonder why everyone on the internet hates them lol
Once again great analytics, thank you.
Happy New Years everyone. good luck to all peoples of the world. May we all be spared the horrors of war.
32:00 What's wrong with population of 500m? It sounds very healthy. No need to expand territory.
The issue is age distribution.
@@petersinclair3997 Age distribution has been irrelevant since the age of mechanisation.
Why do you assume if the chinese coud order a one child policy when that was the problem, they cant order a multiple child policy if they feel that demographics threatens their interests?
Fr
They've tried to correct it but families aren't following through (and it's not something you can 'order'). It's no longer an agrarian society and they're more comfortable with 1 or 2 children.
Because the average Chinese citizen can’t afford to raise more than one child.
As a Romanian, I dread the future of my country, being at the frontier of Europe with Russia. Our leaders are incompetent and our European allies are totally uninterested in the security of the Eastern Front.
In any kind of conflict between Europe and Russia, whether small or big, my country will be among the first to get hit. We need to grow and modernize our military.
And I know it may sound controversial, but my country shouldn't have stopped its nuclear weapons program! Because I doubt USA will nuke Moscow if Romania is invaded! We can't rely on anyone for our own security.
I don’t think you need to be that pessimistic about Romania, you’re members of both NATO and the EU and have seen some really good economic progress. Sure, corruption is an issue.
I find it very hard to believe that countries like Poland or even Hungary would abstain from helping Romania if under attack.
And look at Lithuanian; if you do end up being a frontline state, it’s highly likely you get big detachments of west European ground forces stationed for added deterrence.
Just get better politicians. Play both the nato and russia. Enjoy advantages from both sides. Dont bother with the military angle. There is no way you will independently amass an army strong enough to scare russia. That shit is expensive as hell and l doubt nato would allow you to attain nukes.
In my honest opinion, just learn from hungary and you will be safe and play both sides.
@@alispeed5095 Romania is already in NATO, and I don't see what Russia could offer Romania to warrant playing both sides.
And I don't want Romania to build an army to scare Russia, but an army to make Russia to think of us as too problematic to be worth dealing with.
The only reason I say it's a shame Romania abandoned it's nuclear arms program is because I don't think other nuclear countries would use nukes to defend us.
@@Player-re9mo Russia has cheap energy. And simply having russia look at you favorably is better than the alternative.
Again simply look at hungary. They enjoy the best of both worlds. Why did you guys have to make russia your enemy? I will say it again
You need better politicians...
The only way romania can get militarily strong enough to threaten russia is if you guys allow the US to weaponize you like we see with Ukraine. And we can clearly see what that led to.
The US will never give you nukes and thats the only thing thats gonna scare away russia ;)
@@Player-re9mo As a Hungarian, i would support you guys. Even if our relations are not the best, we are still eastern europe, so we should fight together.
NONE of any of this wouldve been possible without the invention of electricity. Bar none.
As a Dane, Europe needs to wake the fuck up. The West has enjoyed a very rare displacement in power on the world stage, making us believe that we're near untouchable, and that no one would ever seek to harm or challenge us. As the video points out, a country like China has its own ambitions. If we're not strong both economically and militarily, we will be the losers when Chinese or Russian interests interfere with our own.
A combined Europe has a population of roughly 500 million people and a larger economy than China or even the US. We have modern industry, technology and natural ressources. In other words Europe as a block has the means to be a dominant world player capable of pursuing its own goals and also being a viable partner to the US and the rest of the Western/ democratic world. But if we do nothing and continue our current path of blind naivity, Europe will become a subject of non-democratic superpowers.
The West with the United States as its centre state, is much stronger than the United States, alone. Should we think Civilisation, rather than Country?
Wow you are still clueless. The US owns Europe, the EU can't have any interests outside of those of the US.
The US will cannibalize Europe in the next 10-20 years, and there is no one around who will do anything to help, because China and Russia are going their own way now. European 'leaders' are now openly mocked and humiliated on the world stage.
@@JamesSmith-ix5jdexactly my point
“Comfort of international peace the vast majority of the world has lived in”
I think these continents & regions beg to differ:😅
Africa
Asia
South America
Central America
Balkans
Caucasus
it's all relative
I'm always really impressed with your analysis. I wish more people would follow your channel.
This is such a Pro Western Video!!!
What is the need for a country to be the best at anything? So what if China, Japan, Ethiopia, Germany, Russia or whatever country gets a better economy than the US? Will this affect the people of those countries significantly outside of patriotic ideals? There is such a focus on being better than others I really get the sense many political leaders don't care about actually improving the lives of the citizens of the country they serve, but rather being better than another country. War is a waste of life, time, resources and incredibly stupid outside of preventing unwarranted aggression or significant injustice (such as a revolution against an oppressive regime, Ukraine defending itself from Russia, or defeating fascists and Nazi Germany). I'm half German and half Kiwi (New Zealander) and have grown up privileged in these two countries, all I want is for the people of both of those countries and all countries in the world to live in freedom and have opportunity to pursue the live path they choose (outside of causing harm to others) and I would love for politicians to focus on peoples welfare, wellbeing and freedom instead of this archaic political sabre rattling nonsense. I couldn't care less that Australia and China have a better GDP than New Zealand, or if France's gdp overtook Germany. Who cares who is better than you, lets care and focus on how you and the people around you are doing and support each other and push our politicians in this direction instead of looking at each other with suspicion, fear and anger at superficial differences. All humans smile, laugh, cry, live, love and exist as the same species. Time, we acted like it.
Yeah yeah.... So profound. 🙄
The fact is, this world is about power. Insignificant nations like New Zealand talk the talk, yet they still throw their lot in with Big Daddy USA.