Military Challenges China Faces if They Invade Taiwan
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- Опубликовано: 29 май 2024
- Find more analysis at Between the Lines: prestonstewart.substack.com/
There's been a concern for a while now that China will use military force to take Taiwan. Those fears are spiking recently as China has kicked off a new wave of military drills near the island. Should China make the decision to move forward with an invasion, there are a handful of items that will be incredibly difficult for them to overcome.
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#taiwan #military #invasion #china #war #navy #airforce #soldiers #dday
Reminder that Normandy was only possible due to allied air, sea, and undersea superiority, a state which took almost four years of total war to accomplish.
Not to mention the distance to Normandy was a lot shorter and the weather almost ruined the plans for operation Overlord, if memory serves me right.
and the allies had some practice with naval landings from the north africa and italian campaign
Hmmm It baffles me that nobdy what if the intelligence or coordination or experience to land an amphibious ...
What battle harden army vets means nothing too you? You all give *Sanlu* too much credit of what is *World* *Factory*
Do you really believe it could invent? A Sanlu?
There's only maybe 2 to 3 months window when the Taiwan strait has decent weather. Not to mention Taiwan is very mountainous. Furthermore, you can't stage that many troops and equipment without being noticed.
Slava 🇹🇼 Heroyam TAIWANese 🦾
I'm not a soldier, airman or even a real person. I'm just a talking blob on the internet. However, I think the keys to *anyone* fending off China at the range we are talking about is magazine depth and number of launchers. Being so close to China means that they can potentially launch IRBM's against defenders from protected positions. I think in a scenario where there is a prolonged conflict will put ammunition supplies of smart weaponry under huge strain. This will be basically a long-range artillery duel where instead of 155's we are talking about Tomahawks and the PLA equivalent being slung en masse across the strait.
And when I saw Tomahawk, I mean not just those but every kind of missile that you can imagine. I can imagine a US SSGN spending all of its missiles in a single day, making it combat-ineffective until it reloads stores. Same with Burke DDG's - once your ammo is spent you'll need to reload and even if the at-sea replenishment is a thing by then that takes time.
Thanks for the video, Preston.
I suspect there would be a big surge of launches over the first week/month, but a rapid fall-off after that, based on how other recent conflicts with IRBM/Cruise missiles/drones/SRBM/etc.
Well, there is of course the question of how deep the mainlands arsenal is and how reliable their weapons work (or not).
@@comentedonakeyboard Yes, that is another factor. You HAVE to honor the threat in peacetime, but on the other hand we know the Chinese cut corners and do sloppy work on all manner of other things.
If you look at Ukr/Rus or Israel/Iran... They usually send large volleys at a time. And then build up stocks. Then send over another volley. They monitor all the data so when they send over the next volley it can be more effective.
@@MM22966Not for their military, no.
Thanks for the update. Keep safe.
Wow. So comprehensive. Really helped me understand this situation better
One correction to the "re-unification" term, which is a Chinese distortion of historical facts because Taiwan has never been part of China and there will be no "unification". Taiwan was part of Japan until 1951 when it was separate from Japanese Empire at the San Francisco Peace Treaty. General Douglas MacArthur ordered Chinese contingents of the Allied Forces to set up a temporary administration on Formosa which lasts to this day as a result of the Nationalist defeat in China and the entire government exiled to Taiwan.
Taiwan for the Taiwanese. Winnie The Pooh - BUTT OUT.
Sounds great an all how you tell it but a quick search of the UN charter shows China and Taiwan are one country still. Taiwan is no more a country than Palestine. Guess what the Israeli are getting away with right now
Correct, “reunification” is the product of the cognitive warfare from China, to make people think Taiwan and China were together. This war, which already started - politically, economically, ideologically, etc, is simply just an “annexation”. A big country invading a small one with whatever resources it takes to achieve their goal
Thank you Preston, Another great report...
Great video! I really like the 10-20m format...
Australian general Mick Ryan published a really good book on this topic recently called "the white sun war". A really wonderful read or listen for anyone interested in the subject.
China’s biggest problem ultimately is that they’d be attempting to plan and win the Super Bowl with a team that’s never played in the equivalent of a high school football game. They have zero experience. You can criticize aspects of the US military and you can certainly do the same with the Russians but at least they both use their respective forces. Modern China hasn’t participated in anything greater than a minor border skirmish. Taking Taiwan whilst fending off the US in concert with Japan/S.Korea etc would be an incredibly difficult undertaking.
But they would be doing it with 1,000 players on the field
@@brandonhallam51 China military incompetent
I'm not yet convinced the Japanese or South Koreans would actively join the conflict. Between North Korea and Japan's constitution, those are serious issues
@@Erik_Ice_Fangoh yes they will
@@Erik_Ice_Fang
Japan already said they would.
you can't REunify with someone you were never unified with.
LOL...nicely put. Nicely put.
The Confederate States of America:WTF😅
The ROC territorial claims mirror those of the PRC regarding Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the 11 dash line in the South China Seas. Chiang Kai Shek was only interested in overthrowing the communists and returning to power on the mainland.
@@kevin2028When NATO bombed the Chinese Embassy Belgrade 1999 the Chinese burned the American flag in Taipei. Still a lot of Nationalists in Taiwan.
The situation is akin to Cuba being part of the USA since the 17th century. It joins the CSA and the Confederates evacuate to Cuba and are protected from invasion by a foreign naval power
This was a great breakdown of the situation. Thank you!
Great info Preston! Can’t get enough.
Appreciate that!
@@PrestonStewart*you didn't take an account of China blockading straits, conducting massive cyber and telecommunication attack, deployment of submarine around Taiwan coastline ready to strike cities if they strike on mainland , lots of factor count but at the end who bears highest casualties? China or Taiwan? It matters... China might loss few hundreds of thousand soldier but Taiwan will lose their country. China might have counted risk to reward ratio so preparing for this.*
Nice job, as usual.
Always expect the unexpected in any fight
Great analysis 👍
Congrats on 700k, I just noticed, probably hasn't been very long since you hit it.
Appreciate that!
What I fear is that the west generally and the US especially is getting more isolationist and appeasing to dictators to a cowardly degree. At a certain point waging war and winning war by any means necessary becomes paramount and must be done before it is too late.
Isolationism is a lot like libertarianism or anarchism in the sense that if you take it at a broad surface level it sounds super appealing. It's only when you start to bring in the real world outside of theory that you realize how untenable it is for running a society and dealing with the world.
the US and West have no problem with dictators as long they can benefit from them. Many Asia, Middle East, Africa, Latin America dictators are supported, or installed through coup engineered by West.
@@khairulhelmihashim2510 yeah, my country experience that thing.
@@seanbinkley7363 , isolationist position happened when you fail to get the world agree to your position, or you do not want to follow the position taken by rest of the world. US is slowly going the North Korea way.
Total opposite: The USA is more involved than ever. You're seeing opposing spheres of influence which have grown. Russia/China has always been outside the US sphere and they are butting up against interests.
I can't help but feel like this happens every year
Exactly.
It's all part of the US propaganda which they use to extract ever increasing funds from the government.
They keep pumping out "threats" to justify their endless requests for more money.
China has been belting about it for 70 years. Only very recently, however, has their capabilities begin to get to the point where they actually could launch a new invasion. China gave up that goal for decades, but never go rid of the object of desire. They could probably start a war now though, look at big China's navy has become. They are now mass producing troop transports. So far it doesn't look like enough but, they are building. So we just don't know when it's going to happen, but it doesn't appear to be an (if it will happen) anymore.
@@Knight_Kinnot only they might have the resources to pull it off now, there are other factors that make it more likely this time:
- Xi is in his 70s, he would like to solidify his legacy before dying
- China demographic collapse will be a huge problem around 2030-2035
- The CCP’s 100 years anniversary is in 2027
China has the intent and likely the means. But the clock is ticking…
I would wager that they would try at least a blockade in the next 5 years, preferably in an election year in the US…
Great analysis Preston thanks. 👏👏👏
Great video! Love the point on the will to fight. So hard to measure until it’s all actually happening, and even then it’s still difficult to assess in real time. Definitely a factor with the intensity and scale of the fighting that’d take place here.
Appreciate it man!
@@PrestonStewartdo you not have chinese speaking friends to help you watch taiwanese news and interviews with their ex generals? They love a good tv debate whenever this happens. The Will to fight is a big assumption you are making here.
alot of people miss our that taiwan topography is pretty much like switzeland when it comes to their mountains . Its a large vein in the central piece of the island. Natural spring water lakes, caves exist in top of military bunkers built into it
they might lose the beach head and the land force. but the mountains will tame any invading army
Not only that, but they've been building up their defenses for decades.
Also wouldn’t both South Korea and Japan join in besides the US?
@@hackyou3227probably and then china may have to defend against multiple retaliation angles
Doesn’t matter, it’s an island
No ports, no food
Dude chinas has most missiles and drones. Taiwan is too small it could wipe out during war
Fun Fact ! China has one air refueling squadron ! One .
Chinese air doctrine is totally different. Irrelevant
Its not like they will need it. its a short distance to taiwan
@@mrwhips3623 Its relevant if they wanna conduct operations outside china , cant do that without fuel , now go discuss tactics with someone else, professionals talk logistics
@@Nubbe999 right, for say one trip, and after that ?
@@Nubbe999most fully armed and fueled fighter jets have less than an hours flight time once they take off due to how much fuel they have to burn to get airborne.
Without aerial refuelling they would only be able to use their closest bases or have to take off with lighter payloads.
6:58 almost sounds like you are describing the Normandy beach heads.
I was in Taiwan about 40 years ago and remember thinking how well suited the terrain was for defense. Rugged does not even begin to describe it.
Great analysis Preston
Thanks!
I was wondering will us help taiwan and risk it all?@@PrestonStewart
@@ifazahmed9475 Of course the US will support Taiwan 💯% Period!!
@@BlueShark-kb6xg it's rather kinda stupid for me to send my country’s men to save a country that has nothing to offer or have in simillar.i think pentagon know this tok.even if us help its will too late because of civill unrest because us citizen dont wanna get dragged in a war with a peer.
I'm Filipino. Along with some of my close friends will be defending Taiwan as a foreign legionary and the Philippines doesn't even have a bilateral mutual defense agreement with the Taiwanese government unlike what we have with the US. If the US were under attack, it's not a question if Filipinos would help because it's our duty.
You're already a province of China 😂😂😂
@@BlueShark-kb6xgnever, Sinoes won't spend money on them
菲律宾的猴子先把中业岛还回来吧，哪来的脸在那大放厥词？
@@BlueShark-kb6xg Chinese Bot, Winnie the Poo supporterxslave
There are 250,000 Filipinos in Taiwan.
I think a lot of analysis tend to overlook the Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu islands as these will most likely be the tripwire. Kinmen is only a couple of kilometers from China's shore and can be subject to a quick blockade/takeover to test if Taiwan is willing to go to war over a small island. However, a war now is unlikely as both sides pretty much prefer the status quo and China would want to see reunification through economic/political means first.
Hey Preston, do you think there's any concern with a hypothetical conflict like this escalating into the Chinese provoking a second Korean war? would it be feasible for them to kick off a military campaign in south Korea if things were to go south in Taiwan?
We have a buffer state between China and SK. Said buffer state has nukes, so the PRC would have to swim to SK.
@ianshaver8954 your so called buffer state is a chinese proxy dumbass
@@ianshaver8954 You are as if SK itself is not a buffer state... 😂😂😂
That might be an disadvantage for China as they would have to spend alot of ressources towards Korea than. While the Allied forces would not be hampered by much. At least in terms of assets regarding the defence of Taiwan. South Korea and Japan planning for years for a conflict with North Korea. Unlike Russia China is far more dependend on Im-and Exports. A war with the West would lead to massive reduction in im-and exports and that would make the population suffer alot. Chinas ports would be blocked. Cutting off every trade partner not reachable by railroads. Also Inda might join the fight aswell.
@@18Krieger In what world is South Korea and Japan and even Taiwan, all island countries (SK is technically an island now), would be less reliant on imports and exports than China?? This is ridiculous... not to mention the vast energy supply coming from Russia and the oil-rich Central Asian states for China.
Taiwan for example, 98% of its energy supply comes from maritime imports of natural gas and oil.😂You're just making a lot of assumptions without even basic fact checking ...
China has already tested that if they position their invasion as a "practice drill", then Taiwan is going to hold back until they are certain it's an attack. That means that Chinese forces will be able to be on top of Taiwan before their active defense starts. To your point then, an effective defense that gives Taiwan and its allies time to react is questionable. All the munitions in the world are useless if unused. So, we'd be depending on the scale of the Chinese operation plus intel to tell us that the attack is likely real. It's terrifying on multiple levels that Taiwan cannot afford to wait. The US needs a major base on Taiwan ASAP.
TSMC will collapse the instant any conflict begins. Semi conductors are more than 50% of Taiwan's economy and the supply chains are so fragile, China can interrupt them without a land invasion.
China has to amass insane amounts of troops and equipment on the coast near Taiwan. This cannot go unnoticed.
@@peterflohr7827 Yep, it baffles me that nobody mentions this. It is clear that the US and allies would close in on Taiwan with their own fleet the moment they feel like a Chinese buildup is under way. That would work both as a means of deterrence and also to actually defend Taiwan from the start if a war breaks out.
@@User-jr7vfI think you think that the dragon are not smart people.
Has before
You're doing a good job!
Interesting points..
@8:25 that is the key question for Taiwanese. Their will to fight. Like all culturally Chinese people (even those who grew up in the west), they all know how to use their words & talk a good game up to the point shit hits the fan. So until shit actually hits the fan with Taiwan and the PLA invasion of the island actually kicks off, we don’t know if the ROC military would actually hold the line.
But yes, if shit hits the fan and the Taiwanese do decide to hold the line, it’s over for the PLA invasion even if the PLA are capable of taking over the island. That’s a very Chinese attitude you can observe when Chinese people try to barter; if they feel that the item they are trying to buy is too expensive they will refuse to buy it even if they technically could afford it. Likewise, even if the PLA could easily take over the island, if the mainland government feel that their attrition rate in their invasion is or would be too costly, it would be the mainland government who would lose their will to fight. And if we factor in Taiwan’s allies coming in to the rescue like the cavalry, the PLA invasion is doomed.
But Taiwanese need to first be willing and agree to hold the line if it actually kicks off.
All these books and talks about the chance of or the PLA planned invasion of Taiwan only help to bring about the conflict. China WILL NOT use force (including blockade) to take back the island unless the govt in Taiwan declares independent. I don't mean the island in its current form but getting rid of the name ROC and adopting a new constitution (namely stating Taiwan means the only island itself and a sovereign country). Then China will use force regardless of the time taken and cost. I hope you experts and keyboard warriors realize that what it means to world if such a war broke out. . The majority of the people in Taiwan see themselves as Chinese - as long they use Chinese characters, speak the same dialects and observe the same cultures (such as festivals) and they want to maintain the status quo. That is why the opposition parties together gained more votes in the last election than the DPP. It is the war mongers in the USA who want to turn the island into another Japan or Hawaii or a US carrier parks next to China. PLEASE GIVE PEACE A CHANCE.
美國其實忽略了真正嚴重的問題:台灣是台灣人唯一的家園，這裡是我們的一切所在，沒有戰鬥意志的問題存在，這是正在路上的東西，在培養中，台灣真正的問題是國民黨與黃埔將軍已經投共，這是100%的事實，台灣迫切需要美國的介入，否則台灣將進入無可翻轉的地步，到時候就來不及了。
你所關切的問題是錯誤的! 台灣民主自由的存在已經威脅到中共的生死存亡，台灣早已成為中共最優先最重要的敵人，台灣人一定早就買爆美國的武器裝備100%【這是一個事實100%】我在這裡像你請求，請將台灣人的心聲傳達出去，習近平野心的推動一定與台灣島內發生 的事情直接相關!戰爭早已在台灣打響了，而這是台灣人無法解決的問題，台灣人早就在這場生死鬥爭之中，而這些軍事演習事其中最後的戲份，這場統戰滲透是以國家之力全方面的鬥爭，看看它的規模有多大，台灣內部非常精彩卻沒有被人提到，美國AIT不知道有沒有掌握到訊息:台灣人買武器保衛自己越來越困難，台灣人已從內部被包圍，我要在重申一次，這是最後一次美國介入的機會，台灣將陷入無可翻轉的地步，台灣人將永遠消失，台灣人很清楚自己的命運，台灣長期以來就是一個被世界遺忘的人權窪地，但是台灣人很清楚能夠有尊嚴的生活完全是因為美國，台灣人權力的薄弱無人知曉，這是台灣人最新的挑戰，精彩又複雜，背後的暴力及野蠻，這一次台灣人失敗的代價將無法承受，美國應該有人曉得這個敵人，這一次台灣人是應該害怕，因為當時是日本人，台灣人沒有人認識，美國官員在中國工作許多年早已預料到今天的敵人!
@@user-fi5fk3qn1h 别闹了，兄弟，北京海淀试验小学有整班的所谓“台湾独立”子弟交换生，哪个嘴上喊“台独”的在北京上海广州没有房地产？ 甚至是山东东北的大片土地。
都是假的，台北演你们呢，这就是个局，目的是用东亚拖住西方的军事力量，来保障一带一路的一路畅通。这几年的局势还没看出来吗？ 欧洲在独立自主，中日韩在签署RCEP，俄罗斯在用本币结算对中国的原材料和能源出口。
中国古代道家有一个诈术叫“借假修真”。
台上的人在演戏，后台人的剧本在小蒋时期就已经写好了。 你看看民进党现在台面上的人物 哪个不是小蒋时期被提拔上来的或者是在小蒋时期发财的地方势力。你去看看蔡英文的资历，或者去看看赖清德是谁扶植起来的。
@@user-fi5fk3qn1h 看看你周边的有钱人，他们支持台湾独立的态度远比你要深刻的多。但是为什么财阀和地方势力会把子女送到北京读书，而不是像中产阶级一样把孩子送到英国或者美国？ 想的明白吗？ 朋友
Well said big bad Preston as always
I feel educated again
How? He said china may invade taiwan...
How can it invade it? It's not a foreign nation.
@@shafsteryellowWhat? Lol
@@SubjectiveFunny It can't be an invasion... Can the US invade Hawaii?
Did Britian invade the Falklands?
Is France currently invading New Caledonia?
anyone from china to verify?
@@chrisivan_yt Taiwan belongs to China, and China include mainland China and other islands in the sea near the mainland, and Taiwan is one of these islands. in the current time, China is administrated by 2 separated party, the CCP in mainland, and KMD in Taiwan. and both of them admit they are Chinese. so, both of them want to unite with each other to be one integrity country, the problem here is who should administrate the country after reunited.
It's no secret that Taiwan let it be known that come an invasion by China, the 3 gorges dam would be targeted by 1,000 missles. Their version of MAD
Also, question of how many hostile subs might be lurking in the water between China & Taiwan. Especially if there are more dangerous times due to sea conditions.
“The Million Man Swim”
Slava TSMC 🇹🇼
We already filled the channel with sharks!
@@Scorch428they will eat the sharks
@@Booz2020 Heroyam chips
Million drone is more likely.
Don’t mess with Taiwanese.
What would be the scene in West Philippine sea when the war starts?
EZPZ for CHINA 😂😂😂
It's always interesting to think of what the actual threshold is for China to be successful at such an operation. What conditions need to be met for them to do this thing? Which allies play a critical role, and which don't? Is there a capability that China is missing? Could the will to fight be squashed with a "siege" of the island?
Not sure what I'd do if I was recalled to serve should this happen.
what is this china you keep talking about? ive only heard of taiwan and west taiwan.
It’s where most of your Amazon orders originate
Wait wait wait, I thought amazon was brazil...@@fkxfkx
Winnie is not amused
I guffawed. Take your like - you earned it.
HA HA good one. The US would never tolerate reunification regardless. It is all about preserving US control over the planet.
I hope that the North Koreans will sit this one out.
North Korea won't join China in an invasion of Taiwan though word has it South Korea will help the U.S. and Japan defend Taiwan.
Too much water
Your missing a Port on the lower east side Taichung
Lets hope Taiwan keep safe and well thanks for the vid Preston
it is china
@@iy2318 no it's not. Taiwan was annaxed in 1629 in Qing Dynasty.
@@RUclipsDeletedmyF.B.Iaccount We know, that's the very claim that Beijing uses it's own casus belli (considering Taiwan government to be rogue and that they inherit all said claims). Taiwan clearly does not agree and will fight them.
@@RUclipsDeletedmyF.B.Iaccount it is the old china
@@iy2318 No its not. If thats how it works then mongolia is entitled to a large part of china, since genghis khan ruled them.
A completely untested military force enacting one of the most complex military and logistical operations at a scale not seen for almost 80 years...what could go wrong?
Against the most powerful & most experienced military on the planet
VAST MAJORITY of the US soldiers currently serving have not seen a real war (nation x nation) in their life, yet you AMERICANS are sure you can beat whatever nation in an all out war today. Why the same can't be true for the Chinese?
Hey
How’s that pier biden built in Gaza
The experience of the upper leadership is the most important part. Having hardened veteran soldiers is nice, but having generals who are tethered to reality and have experienced harsh challenges is more important.
@@ianshaver8954 The US thinks that fighting taliban and terrorist is the same as fighting the germans and japanese on ww2 or China today, all that "Experience" is on asymmetrycal war against poorly trained, poorly equipped, outdated and with no airforce, hold your horses before showing off
The checkmate to all of this is that China relies on 67% of its oil and a whopping 80% of it food to imports, the vast majority having to travel thousands of miles over open seas. China's navy has been designed to protect its boarder with few ships capable of traveling more than a thousand miles from its ports. That means a single US destroyer can wait outside the Persian Gulf for a tanker to show up headed for China, commandeer it, and that alone would put a halt to oil shipments because the insurance companies would no longer be willing to insure them. The infrastructure isn't anywhere close to being ready to increase exports of large amounts of crude all the way to China. Even the relatively close Russian reserves in Siberia require the ability to drill and set up a pipeline over permafrost, which is now out of the question because western tech and technicians are no longer available. And that's just oil.
Any disruption to the delivery of 80% of a nation's food would quickly turn catastrophic, with pretty much the only determinate to how much arrives on China's shores being permitted by the US navy being restricted only by humanitarian concerns. That's not a good position to be in. In fact nobody could potentially show up to defend Taiwan but merely choose to interdict its imports to compel the Chinese to abandon Taiwan.
You really think Russia need western technician to drill oil? 😂😂😂😂😂
an yet here in America everything is shipped from China. China can invade TPE today and no one would stop them.
@@anubizz3 , yes, russia needs foreign assistance and components to do the job properly.
caracoidwren, and as for oil from russia, china has just refused to pay russia for any proportion of the massive cost to build a pipeline from siberia. and china will need more than one pipeline.
Food import is massively exaggerated. Chinese is pretty self sufficient in terms of essential grain, such as rice and wheat. Chinese can live without fruit and avocados from foreign countries.
From my understanding, when it comes to China making a landing; the PLA & PLAN have the following assets:
8 type 071 * 800 troops = 6.400 men
36 type 072 * 250 troops = 9,000 men
11 type 073 * 500 troops = 5,500 men
18 type 074 * 350 troops = 6,300 men
4 type 075 * 800 troops = 3200 men
6 type 271 * 200 troops = 1200 men
2 Darong class * 2000 troops = 4000 men
7 roll on roll off ships (would require a port) * 3000 troops = 21,000
2 float on float off ships * 2000 troops = 4000
51,200 men by sea
67 Y-20 * 200 = 13,400
~80 y-9 * 106 = ~8,800
150 y-8 * 96 = 14,400
100 y-7 * 50 = 5,000
26 IL-76 * 130 = 3,380
=~45,000 potential paratroopers
Total number of troops possible on day one;
=~96,000
When you factor in a need for logistical and communications, command, etc asset landings as well, as well as the fact that not 100% of these assets would be available for a landing, the amount of troops to be potentially landed day one drops much more.
Considering the fact that from attrition alone, the same number of assets would not be available the next day, I just wonder if China still doesn’t have enough ships/aircraft….. for now…….
They would also have to amass that force without anyone noticing.
They will use ferry's and other civilian ships, something they have demonstrated in exercises where they launch amphibious armored vehicles from them.
Great points. What needs to be taken into account is the number of ships and aircraft that will actually make it to the island intact and the soldiers aboard alive. As Preston said, and Russia proved in 2022, manpads would make most of the air transports take a nose dive. Taiwan has also had 80 years planning and installing the necessary defenses. How many transport ships do you think will actually make the landing?
Also, the troops that do land will only have three days worth of food and less than that in ammunition. With so many ships and aircraft lost the re-supply would be massively decreased, meaning those soldiers who do make it will be in a bad shape in just a few days.
I watched a video from Lei's Real Talk and she made some interesting points.
1. China can take advantage of western regard for life and use civilian ships as human shields to invade.
2. Chinese society has a higher threshold for societal disruption than Americans. Meaning Americans would pressure the government to get out of the conflict before Chinese people would.
1. They’ll find out the west has no regard to civilians as long as Jews are not the ones who defend
2. The Chinese will turn on the government once their factories and cities look like Gaza
Depends on the context of the fight but I generally agree. I think it would have to take a major provocation from China to gain the vast majority of public support. Someone touching the boats most likely.
How do you think the civilians would feel though if they were forced to be human shields? I think it'd definitely cripple citizens' morale and support
@@Clorxowhy do you think the US would have boots on the ground?
US Navy would block some trade routes and watch the food riots start.
@@Clorxo Citizens don't have much agency in places like Russia and China. Voicing distress has a greater price than in the US or EU.
A carrier battle group is a LOT faster (when they need to be) than most people know. As long as Taiwan resists a Chinese invasion and requests US support, China has no shot of pulling this off.
West Taiwan needs to relax
China may use RORO ferries, or those car export ferries. Each ship can carry hundreds of tanks, plus thousands of troops. The ship has a mechanical ramp needing less loading/docking needs. These ships are civilian ships.
Yeah but the PRC cannot do this prep in secret. Hundreds of civilian ships being loaded with hundreds of tanks and thousands of troops, even the most prepared/ trained takes days to accomplish.Thats time for a Taiwan reserve callup, a carrier battleground to be diverted maybe even a US airmobile reinforcement. Part of the reason the Chinese are doing "drills" but this will be off the charts
Most probably. They really need a port to unload, though.
Civilian targets you mean.
@@MM22966They do not, they’ve already demonstrated using this ferries in a way where they do not need a port.
@@Flightman453 I guess I should be more precise: a port OR a mobile dock/lighter. They do not have the capability to shove non-amphibious vehicles/cargo right off a ramp onto a beach, as a true amphibious ship does. Their draft is too deep to approach a beach.
Thanks for challenging the trend of fear and cynicism! Very timely post.
You said true transports what happens if they use civilian transports?
If there's one lesson to take away from Russia-Ukraine, it's that we should never take authoritarian state's rhetoric about their own military's capabilities at face value. As others have pointed out, China's armed forces are great on the parade ground but it's a very open question how they'll perform once bullets, missiles, and shells start flying their way.
Looking at the US armed forces last experiences we can assume it's the same for them too
Russia really has managed to get their act together. The Russian armed forces are dramatically improved compared to a few years ago. 500k increase to their total size with a 10x increase in production capacity. Do not get fooled, they are nothing compared to 2022 when Russia looked ill-prepared. This is not the case anymore.
@@98riks Yeah the goal of Ukraine is not at all similar to any conflict the US has been involved in in recent time. When you get a goal similar to that, you get Desert Storm. Something Russia could never hope to replicate. If the goal of Afg. was the same of RU's goal in Ukr., all of Afganistan would look like Mariupol. Do not kid yourself.
@@98riks en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham
Thanks for the INTEL Preston. Do you think your team cover the US Border Issues
All western countries are being invaded but they only care about other countries borders.
Would it be the single largest military operation in human history? What would be bigger?
It's worth noting that the CCP own at least one massive port in Taiwan which is almost completely automated (therefore, little to no danger of Taiwanese employees witnessing much) and optimised for offloading of heavy cargo. They could stealthily move a lot of personnel, equipment and supplies over in advance, under the guise of commercial trade in shipping containers. I forget which one, but it's been mentioned by experts on the 'China Unscripted' podcast, a number of times.
It's also well known that CCP plans for Taiwan involve a lot of sabotage and assassination attempts of political leaders, before an invasion occurs. Of interest is that Russia did precisely that before the Ukraine conflict took place.
Everyone is a gangster until a US attack submarine starts launching tomahawks and mark 48 torpedoes.
Would US risk a submarine by pushing it in the shallow waters of SCS that are full of sensors?
@euunul Absolutely. Don't forget about the Nuclear subs we're giving Australia.
That isn’t happening till 2040
@@euunul you're talking about a machine that is designed to the apex of top secret engineering in the US industrial complex. They aren't losing sleep about some cheap, Chinese ocean sensors.
@@euunul oh don't Worry, US Navy will Definitely activate the Submarine mode of F-35 in SCS like a couple years ago.
/s
You're spot on regarding the will to fight and how crucial of a component it is for a long and bloody war.
However, this rule mostly applies to democratic nations that their populations have the capability to express their anti-war sentiments. China has an advantage that Russia lacks in Ukraine - It can completely block Taiwan from receiving any supplies, including food. China doesn't play according to international laws and providing food to the civilian population in a conflict zone, like Israel is in regards to Gaza.
China can cut off food and weapon supplies to Twain, and unless a strong navel power like the US gets involved, its hard to see anyone breaking a Chinese blockade
Well it's a given the u.s would get involved in this war not just off of ideals and treaties but it makes common sense we wouldn't want the largest chip manufacturer in the world to go under the control of a nation that hates us.
I see your point, but on the flip side I don't think the Chinese government and population would want to starve what they consider ''their own''. I feel like it's not really in China's economic, political and ideological interest to cause too much harm in Taiwan.
@@Olphoracaca China has no problem inflicting starvation and suffering on what it considers a dissident population... just look at any regions with minority populations or religious groups within the nation.
whoareyoufor, china wouldnt dare to attack us planes delivering food to taiwan. there was a fear of russia attacking allied planes delivering food to berlin after ww2. i'm sure russia thought about it.
@@vsvnrg3263 You are referring to the Berlin crisis, in which the USSR and the west were not in war, not with each other and not with any Germany, and the west airdropped aid to west Berlin, which was occupied by the west, and that was the point of contentious between both sides.
In this case, I doubt that the US would challenge China on a Taiwanese blockade during an active Chinese war on Taiwan, unless it will be mentally willing to go for an all-out-war
Mr. Stewart, recently there was a piece in the War on the Rocks about the fall of Crete during WWII, and its comparison with a possible invasion of Taiwan. I felt it was spot on. Experts can debate over how many casualities China will have during rhe attempted landing, but, as the piece argues, one fundamental fact is China has air superiority, and Taiwan will really struggle without at least some parity in air power
Talking about the will to fight and then showing a picture of Ma Ying-jeou is hilarious. He’s probably the most defeatist major voice in Taiwanese politics today 😂
So you know all this, but Chinese military leaders don't know?
Did Russia know a war with Ukraine will last 3 years now with Russia have damn near 6figure loses.
Hi Preston,
You spend a lot of time talking about "Will to Fight." I lived in Taipei in the 90s. While I've seen changes over the last 30 years, I'm sure that it is NO where near getting to Ukrainian levels in regards to the Will to Fight. 30 years ago anyone older than me (I was in my 20s) was guaranteed to have no desire to stick around if things got hot. Not in Taipei at least. Most people my age or younger saw themselves more as Taiwanese than Chinese (the older generations mostly thought themselves Chinese), but none of them had any idea of how to fight.
My brother in law did his military service (conscription) and I remember visiting him on the training base (family visit day or something) and I was struck by the fact that the ROC army had Political Officers explaining to the recruits that communists would rape their sisters and shoot their mothers if they invaded, so they had to fight. FFS, if you have to tell that to your recruits, you've already lost. No Esprit 'de corp, no will to fight.
Gun ownership is pretty much illegal, so nobody can practice with them. There are groups that use airsoft guns down south that I've heard of. And many are thinking about things they can actually train for, like first aid and medical assistance to wounded soldiers. But I don't know what the numbers are like.
Where I think they should train is in FPV drones. It would be detached enough from immediate kinetic reality of war, and leverage young men's video game skills enough that you could probably stop landing craft from coming within a mile of shore. Plus, there are so many tech companies filled with people who are making drones for Ukraine now already. And you could disperse the munitions to make it impossible for high end Chinese weapons from being able to hit them. But every time I read up on what's going on, the Taiwan military is fighting this paradigm shift with everything they've got. The last president started a program to make these kinds of changes, but from what I've read it's been shot down or derailed by the military who just want more big juicy and easy to destroy on the ground F-16s.
Taiwan could defend itself if it would decide to. I don't feel it has, and too many there are all still saying "méi yǒu bàn fǎ" Nothing can be done. The feeling that they are powerless and it's all up to the giants, China and the US to decide their fate.
When you talk about the will to fight, you only consider it for Taiwan and for China. You did not consider the USA's will to fight. After Israel was attacked on October 7th Biden said "Don't" and sent a couple of destroyer ships and a lot of supplies, but he did not send any of the military wings to participate in the fighting.
When you talk about China having the economic power to carry such an offensive, remember that they don't have free market. their whole economy is controlled by the government, and they can harness their whole economy for the war. Also, the economy of the rest of the world is connected to China, giving them another leverage on the economy of the war.
All this but not mentioning the capabilities of the PLA and the capabilities that they will have. The missiles ballistic and cruise, to knockout air defenses, RORO ferries, and more
Since when were casualties ever a concern for the PRC?
This is the same entity whose track record in the Great Leap Forward cost 30 million (?) lives, and who used human wave tactics to signicant effect during the Korean War..
There current population isn't exactly a militarily healthy one and many of the Soldiers that would be subject to such a meat grinder are likely an only child. Political ramifications for the ruling party are for more real now than they ever were for Mao.
You've been spreading rumors all your life as an American, and that's what you've been doing to attack other countries
No way it would be a blood bath. They have no real experience in war at this point from top to bottom
Theyre in Ukraine getting experience.
Same as us during dessert storm and d day
如果你所谓的战争经验是对阿富汗手无寸铁的牧童开枪的话，那中国确实是没有
It would also collapse the world economy.
good share
china has to go fast... while brandon is in power.
youre another foot licker...you forget Dark Brandon would throw up nukes...your door shooter Trump would make friends with Xi and let everything happen
1:28 I believe PRC don't really need to do amphibious assault.
Taiwan is only 1 island. What they need to do is full blockades of Taiwan from Air and Sea. Their military drill around Taiwan this past 2 years indicates they will do that instead of amphibious assaults. The question is how long they can do that.
2:35 while they do the blockade, there's a chance they will wait Taiwan to attack them first so US, Korea and Japan will not have enough reason to help since Taiwan attacking first.
Free to Answer and Correct me.
the first point...after doing that the entire reason they would want to occupy the island is gone...I'd see Russians fueled with irredentism being willing to do that (as we kinda see now) but I don't believe that this kind of motivation is so pervasive in the CCP (I would even say that its just external signaling that noone really cares about)
the second...well...life isnt a videogame with set rules on who can attack/help who for what reasons...but who knows how would that scenario play out
A blockade is an act of war in and of itself. If you start to deny a country of it's ability to feed their people you're actively causing them harm. I would argue that a total shut down of the island would count as a first strike. The question really is do the allies have the backbone to defend Taiwan? The USA has started a very expensive program the last 3 years to move high tech chip manufacturing out of Taiwan to other nations and domestically.
@@kalinmir sorry for not explaining it a bit deeper.
In the first point, by doing that blockades. They also doing it to force Taiwan government into negotiations for their "reunification"
That is probably the last peaceful way they can do for occupying Taiwan or what they say "reunification"
I really hope they will do that instead of full blown war
@@genxtech5584 I don't really know that answer. Even in Ukraine, other European country don't really want to help Ukraine by sending troops to fight Russia directly.
While a blockade is certainly possible (or even likely), I doubt Japan in particular would let China maintain a blockade.
Japan has a lot more riding on Taiwan than any other country due to geography. Taiwan puts a cap on the Ryuku island chain, and acts as a barrier between China and japan.
In addition, both Taiwan and Japan probably have enough Anti-ship missiles to sink a blockade before it can cause any substantial harm.
You are great. I trust your research.
The US objective in Taiwan is maintaining control of it. Doesn't matter whether China is capable of a successful military operation or even if a single shot is never fired - they're clearly preparing to take the island from the US. This means the US cannot afford to buy it's time.
It's worth keeping in mind that many countries see failed military offensives as legitimate means for gradually furthering political objectives. Israel's enemies, for example, have always been playing the long game and often express a tendency to view past "failure" as good investment.
The most economical thong the US can do now is to become more aggressive.
It is not that the chinese can't take land. It is that the chinese can not land their troops at all. Troop carriers would get devistated befor landing. If Tywan have fortified like Zwitserland did... there is no way they can get invaded. Tywan had time to prepare. My bet is the Chinese would never be able to capture that island.
Taiwan has more missiles than China has ships the PLA navy wont even makeit half way across before being sunk
By who
@@tomhenry897 not by the americans, they would take time to come over. The main assaults would be broken by taiwan themselves
@@AlphaohmegaAirsoft After a multi-week ballistic missiles, rocket, and serial bombing campaigns, it can be expected that many defense systems would likely be destroyed.
Not to mention the fact that Chinese warships have potent air-defense radars and systems, and a lot of long range drones.
It is quite simple, Taiwan has like Zwitserland just a few ways in to their country. If the Chinese would try to land thare, their landing ships would be turned into subs in no time. Yes they have a lot of planes, ships and rocket artillery. Bit that does nothing to defences that is hidden in mountens overlooking those entry points. If the Chinese would actually land, they would meet a meat grinder the world has never seen befor. This fact is the same in Zwitserland. There is a good reason why the Axis powers never tried to invade Zwitserland. And the same goes for the allies in WW2. Both knew that they would need suffer to high of a cost that it is better to move around. And for Taiwan, the same is treu. The only way Taiwan could join the main land China if Taiwan would chose to do so. The juice just is not worth the squeeze. The toll would be simply to high for China. And on top of that, China is not doing so hot internally with their property market blowing up on them and the pension plans of people getting vaporised because of it. China can simply not affort to take a huge loss on Taiwan.
China/Russia does an exersize on their border: They want to expand and invade another country!
US does an exersize on the other side of the planet: We are just defending democracy bro
Why do you speak our language if you love them so much? Go gargle and spit in Russian and Chinese instead.
Didn't Russia invade during a training exercise? When was the last time the United States did that?
@@MrPlummer10 The US doesn't need a pretense to invade, we just do it and tell everyone else to screw off.
Go Army! Great video as always, Preston.
Can we create an submersible that can transport troops . I mean paired with an anti mine ship and few other ships and we can transport troops without getting much resistance.
China has the largest manufacturing basis by far, and remember that was the same tool we used "MASS PRODUCTION" during WW2 and we won
China has lots of over capacity, the US is no slouch either even though China's section based upon GDP size is larger. It's not more sophisticated over all, but size matters and it's important. Grunts don't always need the latest tech, they just need to be 'good enough' as the latest wars have proven to us.
@@Knight_Kin
I agree 100% what worries me is when fellow Americans mock and underestimate Chinese capacity to manufacture "good enough" equipment. It doesn't have to be 21st century weaponry when you have 5 million of them. For example, 10 navy seals VS 100 grunts is still an ugly fight either way.
Thx for the comment. 👍🇺🇲🇺🇲
What us manufacture capacity
China is 35% of world’s manufacturing while USA is 12%.
Your looking to close at this issue. China is a major global exporter without a global navy. For them to act on any terms of war would cause unfathomable monetary loss with all the vessels they have around the world at sea carrying exported goods. The non military loss of life, equipment, goods, and ships would cripple China almost instantly. China is very aware of this so taking Taiwan vs the loss of their global merchant fleet doesn't pay out.
US gonna seize Chinese ships carring goods towards US? Towards EU? Towards other countries? You don't think that pissing off every country on earth by taking their goods gonna backfire?
Goal is to win
What would we do if the Chinese merchant ships don’t deliver to us
@@tomhenry897 the same as the Chinese if they could not deliver. That was my point in this. War is not a option to many people lose over a island.
@@tomhenry897 okay, but your response has nothing to do with the comment.
Don't forget, China has 2 million men in just their army and not counting reservists. They could lose what Russia has lost in Ukraine and not even blink.
Resurgent Imperial ambitions in China, Russia and Iran are causing most of the current turmoil in the world.
For the record, Taiwan, an island economy that *heavily relies on maritime imports for around 98% of its total energy,* and nearly 50% of Taiwan's overall trade happens with China. And even Taiwan's own government and Constitution is still to this day 'Republic of CHINA' 😅So what makes you believe that the Taiwanese are willing to to fight to the last man, as long as America expects them? Will they?
After all, in 1949, the same Republic of CHINA government (that still rules Taiwan today) literally gave up 99% of its total territory to the Communists during the Chinese Civil War. 😅
@@shareman1727 Funny. You really think using some acronym ROC would somehow help evade the fact that it is Republic of CHINA?? The entire Republic of China, from government to military, were founded by Chinese revolutionaries in mainland China in 1910s, when Taiwanese men were.... assisting the Japanese army in their fascist expansion?? 😅
I honestly don't know which parallel universe you've been in .. for you say such silly things as 'The Republic of China was never part of China' 🤣
You’re conveniently leaving out that the GMT is far different than it was after WWII.
It’s apples and oranges. The CCP is also far different from its founding yet it is still hell bent on the expansion of communism at any cost. For the people, yet fuck the people.
Either you are on drugs or you legitimately have absolutely no clue what you are barking .
War is a battle of logistics and the will to fight.
Thank you preston gravy another settlement needs your help! Ill let you know any other intel ive got? Impressive videos man ❤🎉 let hope facts and law guide us 🇺🇸🌎🏈
The U.S. considered, and rejected, an invasion of Taiwan (then Formosa) in WWII. It’s a tough nut to crack. Building up and sustaining combat power would make the Normandy invasion look easy.
I’m sure we have some Virginias around Taiwan. Most likely was shadowing china during their most recent dress rehearsal( military drills)
I was going to die laughing with this analysis😅😅😅.
Well if your knowledge/hypotheses is so superior, how about sharing it with us. We're all ears. Anything?..........no, thought not.
Taiwan for the Taiwanese. Winnie The Pooh - BUTT OUT.
WOAH!
They could cross the straight for another “drill” then attack from their “drill” positions. This would diminish Taiwan’s ability to defend an attack from sea.
Preston! You got the months when the sea is not choppy wrong! It’s April and October. That’s it. June is not the month, because typhoon season has started.
I assume the biggest issue for China would be to resupply their invasion army. As they lose a few of their bigger ships and transport aircraft then it's essentially game over.
Every vlogger has no real idea about how this war will happen. I think China will use their large missile arsenal before a land attack. Not sure about the involvement of US as they were very neutral on ukraine war
I didn't hear you talking about the taiwanese sub marines that constantly patrol the waters . For me that is the most difficult challenge china will need to overcome if there are to successfully invade Taiwan
How many ships does China have again
Taiwanese submarines...? Constantly patrolling the waters? You mean a total of FOUR submarines??? Two of them were retired US submarines from the 1950s....🤣🤣 Wake up....
It can’t be done. I’ve known this for a while
Well said and your points are valid. Just one point I would like to make.
The CCP or PRC will not reunify Taiwan they would annex Taiwan if successful.
Let us be clear. The Quing, Ming or whatever Chinese Dynasty has never conquered all of Taiwan. The Qing only managed to control 20% of the island on the western flatlands. The remaining 80% was controlled by the indigenous Taiwanese.
Japan was the first foreign country to conquer Taiwan therefore only Japan can use the term reunification.
Will the Philippines get involved in this scenario?
The whole “ready for war by” bs never ends. The year keeps changing
3 Gorges Dam...
2 Gorges Dam..
1 Gorges Dam.
0 Gorges Dam
No one is hitting that dam. Cope.
China - Taiwan situation kinda reminds me of how Ottoman - Constantinopel like. Both Byzantine and Taiwan had a pretty solid allies, rich enough to ensure their stability and it was just a small land but somehow makes those 2 giant nations estimated a lot before the can pull the invasion off.