So ~$250k in 8 months for a ~$5T market cap which would surpass all remaining assets except gold. 🚀 Doable, but it will be up to the big boys and girls to decide whereas all previous cycles were mostly retail. If the U.S. immediately goes for the SBR, we can hit $250k. If not, I'm thinking $150k.
I have a similar thought process, this type of analysis is highly speculative so will be seeing how overheated the market looks at lower prices before setting my sights on $0.25m+ prices!
Every time I meet a friend who is into bitcoin, we talk about the next peak and make predictions. I can't stop talking about this lol. Appreciate this video! Do it EVERY WEEK!
It is good fun, although definitely better to react than predict so keep an eye on the on-chain stuff! But glad you enjoyed will definitely do more in the future!
thank you Matt for this update , this is just awesome number crunching !!!! yes please to updating this every few monthsso helpful :) amazing update thanks again
Dear Matt, please take into account that there is a downtrend visible which has the effect that the two moving avarages overlap less and less each cycle. This could mean the overlap will be less than 1 this cycle.
Very true, I also think due to how accurate it's been previously we might get some front-running. When we're 99% of the way to a cross lots of people probably sell to make sure they're not too late which may also prevent a cross from happening.
Matts Mathematical Predictions throughout 2024... DEC 17 - $242,000 by AUG 2025 OCT 31 - $200,000+ by mid 2025 to early 2026 JUL 22 - $200,000+ by APR 2025 JAN 09 - $150,000 by AUG 2024 Thanks for all of your hard work Matt!
Hello Matt, I would like to see the Pi Cycle Chart once a week as when the top arrives it could turn down quickly so the earlier the signal the better for returns. Tick for the video.
Glad you enjoyed! As we get closer to the top I'll definitely be trying to showcase all the data supporting overheated conditions, I definitely don't want to be holding too much all through the next bear and I don't want any viewers too either!
Very true, I also think due to how accurate it's been previously we might get some front-running. When we're 99% of the way to a cross lots of people probably sell to make sure they're not too late which may also prevent a cross from happening.
Would love to see these every week or month. I've been plugging the transcripts from your video into my favorite AI client and having it build a BTC investment strategy based on the data. I'm working with a Crypto financial advisor to implement it now and am thankful for your time and effort on these videos. I know its all speculative and never financial advice, but I can't find more solid analytics and data out there.
Awesome, thank you! These videos are definitely very speculative, I have a full on-chain roundup video planned for tomorrow that will be a lot more real-time data driven that you might enjoy!
Wow Matt, genius and very well explained. Maths makes total sense and as always, understand it's just a model and it's probably better to follow the onchain indicators for real time signals. I hate to say it, but for my own good I hope this channel doesn't get too many subscribers otherwise the market will front run your predictions and top out early ;)
Thank you Matt. Amazing Vid. Regarding the BTC metrics combined indicator you are working on, could you consider adding the MACD? Also, it would be amazing if each metric could be toggled on/off so you could "build your own" metric based on the indictors the user favours. And user could compare different combinations. For instance, my favourite indicators are MACD, RSI, MVRZ and "Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple". Would be killer feature imo. Be great is available for Advanced members. Just a suggestion. Thank you
We've actually had suggestions for adding the RSI before which I've looked into but I've not checked out the MACD yet so will look into it, thanks for the suggestions! I also think togglable data could be interesting so will see what's possible!
Amazing take ! So a faster oscillator rate of change from past cycles (when nearing tops), would essentially mean a lower/earlier terminal price. And in contrast a slower rate -> higher/later terminal price. That's the only assumption I think would be interesting to tweak for different scenarios (Q1/Q2/Q3) Since other indicators are heating up, would a faster rate of change be more fitting ?
Glad you enjoyed! Yes a slow and steady grind would be much healthier and probably lead to higher prices. This early in a cycle it would only take a couple weeks of consolidation or drawdown to change the forecast of this analysis by a couple months! Hard to gauge currently so will revisit!
Interesting. But why did you chose these indicators? Surely there are some indicators that say we have topped already. You will make me miss the top with this bullishness :D
This is one of the only ones we can really track the trend as it's based purely on price action. Using something like the Value Days Destroyed for this type of analysis is impossible as a number of whales could choose to sell at any time and influence the on-chain data. *Just as I was super bullish at the bear cycle bottom I'll try be brutally honest and even bearish when the data suggests to do so!
I'd guess $50k - $70k as the bottom throughout the next bear, but hard to predict now as we don't know how high the bull will go! I'd put the chances of us ever revisiting $30k as incredibly close to 0% and $8k essentially impossible.
Everyone screamed supercycle last cycle so until there's lots of evidence of that being by far the most likely outcome we have to assume the same thing that has happened every cycle is most likely to happen again this cycle.
I thought if you sell in May you typically come back in November... Either way I never really trust blind seasonal predictions, go away when the data says not the calendar!
Predicting price day by day is practically a coin flip... Although I did call for a $100k retest on Monday: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-research/can-btc-now-remain-in-six-figure-territory/
S'il vous plait , pourriez vous proposer une traduction vocale en francais et ou autres langues , car les sous titres mal traduits qui se deplacent tout le temps sont un enfer à suivre 😟 Merci
Not sure if we can provide voice translated versions currently as we just don't have the resources. And apologies for the poor RUclips auto subtitles but as someone that doesn't speak much French it's hard to verify how accurate it is!
Love these Matt. Every 2 months or so would be awesome as we’re getting into the meat of the bull market.
Thanks a lot and definitely more to come!
So ~$250k in 8 months for a ~$5T market cap which would surpass all remaining assets except gold. 🚀 Doable, but it will be up to the big boys and girls to decide whereas all previous cycles were mostly retail. If the U.S. immediately goes for the SBR, we can hit $250k. If not, I'm thinking $150k.
I have a similar thought process, this type of analysis is highly speculative so will be seeing how overheated the market looks at lower prices before setting my sights on $0.25m+ prices!
Every time I meet a friend who is into bitcoin, we talk about the next peak and make predictions. I can't stop talking about this lol. Appreciate this video!
Do it EVERY WEEK!
It is good fun, although definitely better to react than predict so keep an eye on the on-chain stuff! But glad you enjoyed will definitely do more in the future!
He does it around a monthly basis
thank you Matt for this update , this is just awesome number crunching !!!! yes please to updating this every few monthsso helpful :) amazing update thanks again
Glad you enjoyed it will do!
Dear Matt, please take into account that there is a downtrend visible which has the effect that the two moving avarages overlap less and less each cycle. This could mean the overlap will be less than 1 this cycle.
Very true, I also think due to how accurate it's been previously we might get some front-running. When we're 99% of the way to a cross lots of people probably sell to make sure they're not too late which may also prevent a cross from happening.
@BitcoinMagazineProalmost sounds like Mid July is when most will sell.
Matts Mathematical Predictions throughout 2024...
DEC 17 - $242,000 by AUG 2025
OCT 31 - $200,000+ by mid 2025 to early 2026
JUL 22 - $200,000+ by APR 2025
JAN 09 - $150,000 by AUG 2024
Thanks for all of your hard work Matt!
Good effort putting them all together! Will be interesting when we get closer to the top to see how much these predictions continue to converge.
Lol very much doubt that. But be amazin if it does
LOVE THIS!! Can we do one on the 1st of every month?
Let me see what I can do!
Great work Matt !
Keep these coming every month or so..
Thank you! Will definitely make them a regular video after this!
This was by far your best video. Very informative and easy to follow. Congrats and thanks for sharing.
Thanks that means a lot!
This is very useful. Thank you. If we can have this kind of video every month will be great!
Glad you enjoyed it! Will make an updated version in the new year!
Hello Matt, I would like to see the Pi Cycle Chart once a week as when the top arrives it could turn down quickly so the earlier the signal the better for returns. Tick for the video.
Glad you enjoyed! As we get closer to the top I'll definitely be trying to showcase all the data supporting overheated conditions, I definitely don't want to be holding too much all through the next bear and I don't want any viewers too either!
@BitcoinMagazinePro Thank You for the feed back.
Very interesting! Please do this every month.
Glad you enjoyed!
@BitcoinMagazinePro This is awesome!
Matt my man love these videos definitely the best and my favorite out there!
Thanks for the kind words and glad you enjoyed!
Have you considered that those 2 MAs might not cross this cycle? If you look at the pattern of the ratio, it shows diminishing peaks.
Very true, I also think due to how accurate it's been previously we might get some front-running. When we're 99% of the way to a cross lots of people probably sell to make sure they're not too late which may also prevent a cross from happening.
Perfect explanation, great video m8
Much appreciated! Sometimes not the easiest concept to explain haha.
Just from looking at the current charts i dont think we are overbought at the moment , would you agree ? always value your thoughts :)
I agree and have a video planned for Thursday that'll go over all the on-chain data supporting that!
@BitcoinMagazinePro lovely look forward to that :)
@BitcoinMagazinePro look forward to that for sure :)
Would love to see these every week or month. I've been plugging the transcripts from your video into my favorite AI client and having it build a BTC investment strategy based on the data. I'm working with a Crypto financial advisor to implement it now and am thankful for your time and effort on these videos. I know its all speculative and never financial advice, but I can't find more solid analytics and data out there.
Awesome, thank you! These videos are definitely very speculative, I have a full on-chain roundup video planned for tomorrow that will be a lot more real-time data driven that you might enjoy!
Wow Matt, genius and very well explained. Maths makes total sense and as always, understand it's just a model and it's probably better to follow the onchain indicators for real time signals.
I hate to say it, but for my own good I hope this channel doesn't get too many subscribers otherwise the market will front run your predictions and top out early ;)
Yep always good fun to do but I'll be watching what's really happening on-chain when I begin profit taking!
Thank you Matt. Amazing Vid. Regarding the BTC metrics combined indicator you are working on, could you consider adding the MACD? Also, it would be amazing if each metric could be toggled on/off so you could "build your own" metric based on the indictors the user favours. And user could compare different combinations. For instance, my favourite indicators are MACD, RSI, MVRZ and "Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple". Would be killer feature imo. Be great is available for Advanced members. Just a suggestion. Thank you
We've actually had suggestions for adding the RSI before which I've looked into but I've not checked out the MACD yet so will look into it, thanks for the suggestions! I also think togglable data could be interesting so will see what's possible!
Amazing take !
So a faster oscillator rate of change from past cycles (when nearing tops), would essentially mean a lower/earlier terminal price.
And in contrast a slower rate -> higher/later terminal price.
That's the only assumption I think would be interesting to tweak for different scenarios (Q1/Q2/Q3)
Since other indicators are heating up, would a faster rate of change be more fitting ?
Glad you enjoyed! Yes a slow and steady grind would be much healthier and probably lead to higher prices. This early in a cycle it would only take a couple weeks of consolidation or drawdown to change the forecast of this analysis by a couple months! Hard to gauge currently so will revisit!
Great video Matt! I would love to see monthly updates.
Thanks and glad you enjoyed! I've had a lot of requests so will definitely have to do these more often!
Excellent work.
Much appreciated!
@BitcoinMagazinePro 🌞
Hey I appreciate the analysis, but it needs a bit of cleaning up so that we can visually digest it properly.
Yeah valid point, will improve it for future episodes!
Excellent.
Many thanks!
fun exercise; i've done something similar (comp'n 2020) and got similar results.
If there's any other fun exercises you've done with interesting results and would like to see me try and recreate then let me know!
Good one.
Thanks!
How closely does the PiCycle bottom coincide with the MVRV Zero bottom?
Pretty noticeable amount of crossover interestingly enough!
Interesting. But why did you chose these indicators? Surely there are some indicators that say we have topped already. You will make me miss the top with this bullishness :D
This is one of the only ones we can really track the trend as it's based purely on price action. Using something like the Value Days Destroyed for this type of analysis is impossible as a number of whales could choose to sell at any time and influence the on-chain data.
*Just as I was super bullish at the bear cycle bottom I'll try be brutally honest and even bearish when the data suggests to do so!
@BitcoinMagazinePro Ah, OK. Well there are other ways to speculate on other indicators and try to extend their lines further for sure :).
Will see if there's others we can add in to get an averaged predicted peak!
I think $200k next 3 mounth
I certainly wouldn't complain! Who knows how crazy things get next year.
Predict the low 30 to 8k that's my guess
I'd guess $50k - $70k as the bottom throughout the next bear, but hard to predict now as we don't know how high the bull will go! I'd put the chances of us ever revisiting $30k as incredibly close to 0% and $8k essentially impossible.
Hi
Hello
My current extrapolations are pointing to November 19, 2025.
I also don't have August as my base case, also probably October/November time.
🎉🎉🎉😊😊. Happy if Bitcoin can reach $150,000 by July or August 2025 🎉🎉🎉
Fingers crossed! Personally I think $150,000 is a more realistic target than $300,000 for summer next year but who knows!
btc will be 150k in august after it had its peak in april at 300k and only going down from there till the next bullrun 😂
Wow, I fell asleep watching this 😴😴😴
Ha my bad! Hope it was a good sleep.
Retail is irrelevant
It’s a super cycle
Black rock
UAE etc
NFA
Everyone screamed supercycle last cycle so until there's lots of evidence of that being by far the most likely outcome we have to assume the same thing that has happened every cycle is most likely to happen again this cycle.
Just in time for go away may
I thought if you sell in May you typically come back in November... Either way I never really trust blind seasonal predictions, go away when the data says not the calendar!
Did he predict todays dump
Predicting price day by day is practically a coin flip... Although I did call for a $100k retest on Monday: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/bitcoin-research/can-btc-now-remain-in-six-figure-territory/
@BitcoinMagazinePro Did he call for a 96k?
LOL yeah nice one brrrrrrrooooooooooooo
👍
You ashoom too much ser.
I hope I made it clear enough I don't think this exact outcome is the likeliest, just a fun experiment!
S'il vous plait , pourriez vous proposer une traduction vocale en francais et ou autres langues , car les sous titres mal traduits qui se deplacent tout le temps sont un enfer à suivre 😟
Merci
Not sure if we can provide voice translated versions currently as we just don't have the resources. And apologies for the poor RUclips auto subtitles but as someone that doesn't speak much French it's hard to verify how accurate it is!
@BitcoinMagazinePro Dommage, mais merci quand-même.
Amazing 🎉🎉🎉🎉. 👏
Many thanks brutha. 🎉🎉
No problemo 👍
Definitely helps, please continue 🙏 🎉🎉🎉
Glad it helped and will definitely continue!
@BitcoinMagazinePro many thanks