Welsh Parliament Election: Could Labour Win the Welsh Senedd? - TLDR News
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- Опубликовано: 28 июл 2024
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On May 6th the people of Wales will cast ballots in the Welsh Parliamentary election. The representives they select will not only impact how Wales handles issues from health to education but also the countries attitude towards the rest of the Union. So in this video we explain the election and what outcome we're expecting.
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1 - www.labour-party.org.uk/manife...
2 - senedd.wales/how-we-work/hist...
3 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Na...
4 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senedd_...
5 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_We...
6 - www.instituteforgovernment.or...
Thank you for covering Wales! Devolved politics is barely covered by mainstream media as it is (especially Wales) so this video was really needed
Thats because the right honourable Mark Drakeford doesnt have his head up his arse like sturgeon
@@djstona5284your a bit of a fanny mate
@@DP-qm6qe No insulting
Really? Jimmy krankie seems to be on BBC news every day.
Praise
I really wish you'd posted this video before the deadline to register to vote had passed! Could have been good to convince some more folks to sign up
You should always register to vote. Then go and tick all the boxes if everybody that did not vote spoiled their papers instead then they might do something about people not voting. To save going down the polling station I have a postal vote and I have already cast my vote for the London Mayor so videos like this are already to late to swing my vote.
Election Day registration is the solution. In Minnesota and about 20 other states they have same day registration
To be fair if you’re not registered to vote at this point, I doubt you’d be watching TLDR political videos.
If someone relies on youtube for how to register, they are already failing.
@@sackeshi No, the ones seeking information from multiple avenues are not failing. The ones limiting their information on a matter by means of prejudices are the ones failing.
Thanks for doing a video about devolved politics in Wales. It gets very little attention in the UK media. Minor note, Senedd is pronounced more like 'Seneth'. 'dd' is a digraph in the Welsh language that makes a 'th' sound like the end of words like 'bathe' in English.
It's my first time voting here in Wales, I'm very exited.
I find it interesting they'll drop the age to 16, but I doubt many that age area will make it out.
@@1234saunds oh shit, too much Brexit on my mind
I wish I could vote on what goes on back home even tho I live in australia. Plaid Cymru needs all the help they can get, after all :p
Welcome to the club! We have Welshcakes
@@000Dragon50000 I’m glad you can’t then lol
I wouldn’t say a coalition with Plaid would be incredibly unlikely because they have before.
Plaid have an Independence referendum in their manifesto, which Labour completely oppose. This could ruin any chance of the two going into coalition.
@@tomosprice8136 : polling aside, that is often totally wrong anyway, tories may or may not pick up labour seats ,as westminster sleaze of cameron and johnson may or may not affect wales..
as for plaid, gwlad and propel , are running against them, making the 16-21 yrs vote very important, for those who consider themselves welsh nationalists, split into 3....
same goes for brexit= reform uk, ukip and abolish all either standing to remove, scrap or reform devolution, splitting the vote 3 ways..
lazy labour, who assume they already have won, are now begining to give road maps, opening dates and panicking for the record on nhs, lockdown etc
libdems who, were in government, have 1 seat may or may not loose that seat ..
welsh greens, freedom alliance, cons all hope too make gains, as some like : welsh labour:
carwyn jones *former first minister is stepping down in bridgend, labour hope to retain the seat, the cons who won it in the UK dec 2019 election will hope too take it,...
same goes for kirsty williams- welsh lib dems and others...,
mark drakeford may or may not loose his own seat... , any talks of coalitions and agreements, after the election...
welsh labour have worked with plaid cymru before, not impossible but dangerous , labour voters against indpendence and plaid for it..., means very strange compromises, before any government is formed...
welsh conservatives, reformuk and others is not unthinkable either, depends on the results and compromises, possible labour minority or tory minority government...., polling predicts labour being short of majority..
the regional votes, for plaid, propel, reformuk, and many other parties will determine the labour loss, possible cons gain, plaid being stagnant and others making up the numbers....
@@jardon8636 Thank you, they won't listen it's like brexit, Plaid and Labour think it never happened. That's tipical of politics today, the people count for nothing until it's voting time , then it's back to before being ignored, what idiots we all are. By the way have you noticed how eager they are for us to have a postal vote, my perseption of this kindness is they have some control by assessing the mood on the day so they can delay or deliberately loose our votes data, it happened for Trump remember, the opposing party had control of the contractor who delivered the postal votes, be very aware of help from politicians, it always favours them, that's enough secrets given away for free.
Wonderful
CMON PLAID 🏴 🌼
Plaid cymru and Labour are extremely similar, just 1 wants full independance and the other almost
Well that is no small nor negligible difference, even if they did agree on literally everything else.
Uk is a bad joke, independence is the only option
Well done guys! Best work yet. Thank you for representing Wales :).
Is there a Wales pin? would love to see one!
Also I'd love badges/magnets without legs so you could fit them together next to each other!
@@Iestynity They probably won't go for the no-leg badges though, since there's a high chance those wouldn't age well.
@@Iestynity I've been suggesting it for a while, but they didn't seem to be up for it. Such a shame though.
Spanish slate on Welsh roofs, I've seen it all now, care of Plaid Cymru.
From the outside looking in, the question doesn’t seem to be “Will the UK break apart?” it’s more like, “How long until the UK just dissolves away?”
When Empire ended the last and only reason for the UK ended as well.
I think that was always an inevitability.
I'm currently just awaiting my postal ballot, so as soon as that arrives I'll be casting my vote.
"Bring democracy," how can that be when Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour want to rejoin the federal intentions of the European Union? It won't happen, P/C and W/L coalition plans will see us shackeld to federalism and we wont be free I assure you.
@@taffywales2143 Plaid Cymru have actually said the matter of EU membership is now set as per the 2019 General Election and us leaving the EU. The decision to rejoin would be the decision of Wales, not politicians. (Personally I don't want us to rejoin, I'd rather see the EU dissolve to non-existence and be no more than a collaborative trading agreement across Europe, but there we go). I also don't want to see a coalition out of this election because that ultimately leads to disaster, I absolutely despise coalition governments.
@@InstaSim6 I appreciate your reply, I am also very concerned, Plaid and Labour are up to something for sure, they hate begging for funding from Westminster, Plaid especially does't like the English system, they rather beg to Brussels,plus the trips to negotiate in Brussels are a very pleasant experience, chauffeur from the airport, a merc and that's not a free gift from Germany very luxurus, then 5 star accommodation to soften the delegates, all for free not air miles or a toy from the trip , guess who is paying? you are right, all of us, it's the same all the way throughout the EU Piramid Franshising Corporation, yes for those at the top of politics it is good, always paid by us twice and controlled by the unelected fat Eurocrats, believe me they will not relinquish this freebie, that's why the wheels of Brexit turn very slowly.
@@taffywales2143 Oh grow up. Federalism FFS.
Glad it’s not just me that hasn’t had my postal vote!
It's worth mentioning that this time EU citizens with settlement or pre-settlement status can vote to Senedd.
Yeah labour have been gerrymandering Welsh elections since the Welsh assembly was created
Been waiting for this one! Good job as always guys 🏴🏴
One point that you mentioned: Labour and Plaid being unlikely to do a deal - they managed that and a successful 4 year term as a Coalition between 2007-2011 and with the how the numbers look, I wouldn't be surprised if there's such an arrengement (whether Coalition or Confidence and Supply), to keep the Conservatives out. It's going to be extremely interesting next week!
If you don't like any of the candidates, then it's far better to spoil your ballot than to not vote.
Childish tantrums.
Welsh nationalism is growing, who knows if in a few years it will be the majority in the country as it happened in Scotland.
Not entirely sure of the numbers but I think somewhere around 30% of people living in Wales don't consider themselves Welsh, remember it is easy to commute to major cities in England from Wales and many English have settled on the Welsh side of the border. Liverpool, Manchester and Bristol are all within commuting distance with good road and rail connections.
@@davidwiiliams1656
And then they consider themselves as english?.
I don't see any contradiction between being welsh and supporting the union with england, nor between being welsh and wanting independence.
@@gottmituns813 I agree with you it is not growing at all and if the pools are right Plaid cumry wont gain higher vote share. Welsh people actually voted to leave the EU by okay large margin and if you look at the first National Assembly election and compare it to now plaids Camry has actually lost votes.
@@frederikjrgensen252
We will see it next week, logically nationalism in Wales is not close to the support it has in Scotland or Northern Ireland but in the future who knows, Brexit will change many things, the SNP was a minority in 2003 and in 2011 it won by absolute majority.
@@gottmituns813 Wales is a lot more dependent on England compared to Scotland. 1/3 of Wales population was born in England a lot welsh people probably commute to the bigger English cities to work. Dont forget that Wales voted to leave.
When someone repeatedly gets the name of the First Minister wrong in a video where he's somewhat of a central figure (DraKeford, not Draeford), it does call in to question the quality of the research that went into the making of the video. After the basic history lesson, this video does seem halfheartedly thrown together, as if it was a chore, rather than giving any actual insight into the matter e.g. explaining why either coalition would be unpalatable for Labour. Compare this video to the detailed policy discussion on the London mayoral election video for example. Barely a peep about Plaid either, which seemed odd, being a unique feature of this election compared to the others covered on this channel. I do appreciate any message that encourages going out to vote however. Perhaps I'm being harsh, but constructive feedback should always be welcomed I guess. I do enjoy this channel and glad to hear you're growing.
8:42 Could someone explain why the coalition between Plaid Cymru and Labor is so unlikely?
Plaid want an independence referendum within the first term if they win, but labour are unionists so they won't agree to it if they need a coalition. Plaid are aiming to win and this is the most unpredictable election ever due to covid, brexit and 16+ votes, plus it doesn't take a lot of votes to swing most seats, I'd say no party will say what they'll do for a deal until they've seen the votes counted and know who has the leverage.
It's actually not unlikely at all, it's what most people are predicting would happen. Labour and Plaid have been in coalition before too. Also Drakeford and Adam Price both haven't ruled it out when questioned on it so I think a Labour/Plaid coalition is actually the most likely outcome of the election.
It could well happen if Labour fail to win enough seats. They just say at the moment that they won't make up a coalition because they're both trying to win outright.
While they have different aims, when you watch the Senedd in action, there's a very different tone of response from Mark Drakeford towards Adam Price than there is towards any of the Tory or Abolish lot. I think there's some respect there and they can work together, even if they have different aims.
@bujin1977 @J P @MajorSpoiler Thank you for answers. I'm from a country where coalition governments are the norm rather than an exception and here the "coalition puzzle" is very flexible. Almost all parties can cooperate (and have cooperated in the past) with each other. It's only natural that parties don't announce their preferred coalition partners before the elections because that would make things akward in the following coalition negotiations.
I don't know much about Welsh politics, but my intuition says that it should be more easier for Labor and Plaid to find common ground compared to labor and conservatives.
@@daa3930 Yeah no one has ever won a majority in the Welsh parliament so coalitions are the norm here too.
But UK elections use the first past the post system where coalitions are less likely which is why people from England talk about coalitions as exceptions and puzzles
Also seems weird to end the video suggesting that the Tories and Plaid Cymru are equally unlikely candidates for a Labour coalition - Plaid Cymru seem infinitely more likely to join with Labour than the Tories................
Plaid Cymru have formed a coalition before with Labour. There is absolutely no reason why they wouldn't want to form another coalition.
Anything is possible. In Scotland Labour are the most strident and bitterly angry Unionist party.
Welsh Labour make go down the route of being the Tories bitter cousins in Wales as well.
Hey 😄 very glad you're covering Welsh politics! Just a little note: the dd in Senedd is not a hard D sound, it's more like a th sound but very soft rather than the hissed sound English speakers would use. I appreciate you're doing a lot for these videos already, but there are plenty of short and approachable videos on RUclips that teach basic Welsh pronunciation and point out that it's a phonetic language so these days there's not really any excuse for a person living on the island of Britain to not know how to pronounce Welsh words. I say this as a Welsh person who lives in Aotearoa/New Zealand and has learned how to pronounce Māori words, which are also phonetic, despite not being fluent to any level in Māori. The gap between learning the entire language and just learning its basic pronunciation is vast, so I'm sure you could get your tongue around Welsh syllables without learning the whole language 💖
I'm an American looking to migrate to Wales. I've considered picking up the language too, it's fascinating.
Any good suburbia locations worth moving to?
@@bazzfromthebackground3696 West Wales for sure
Should probably add it's a voiced "th"-sound as in 'that' rather than thing.
@@bazzfromthebackground3696 I don’t see any real point most people speak English and every that speaks Welsh can speak English
Nice long, boring message for people to read Geraint, fair play.
You should do a video on the new mayor for West Yorkshire, which will be elected on 6th May too
I wouldn't watch.
West Yorkshire isn't important. You're thinking of East Yorkshire
God I hate the regional mayor shit, just give us proper devolution not the dumb regional mayor stuff
i can tell you who will win labour no election needed this is labour heart land and me a conservative knows it granted i don't dislike labour co op just the not a fan of the way the party as a hole is going its going hate corbin
@@rhysmassey5457 I wouldn't be so sure. The Tories have made ground in Wales recently and Drakeford isn't exactly popular at the moment
@@ricardosmythe2548 And if we vote Plaid Cymru or Welsh Labour in Wales we will be tied down to deprived areas handouts like the last 20 years, it's these grants and lottery support that's been carrots for votes,I remember free bully beef and out of date butter, suckers all of us, now the EU own us, we deserve better, our young deserve stability and security not social security, a solid plan to bring industries back, long term employment not zero hours supported with benefits, a decent wage to give us the will to do well, our politicians earn thousands and are secure because they have stiched us good and proper, brexit frightens politicans because they will be accoutable and have to deliver their promises.
thanks for this
If you want some more information on the independence movement in Wales I'd be happy to oblige. I haven't seen anyone report on it accurately.
If "you haven't seen anyone report on it accurately", have you considered the possibility that it is actually your information that is faulty, and everyone else's is fairly accurate?
@@alexpotts6520 the flooding of deweryn hasn't been mentioned by anyone. Or anything about owain Glyn dwr and cultural history of English oppression. As far as I'm aware there things are objective fact? I can link you Wikipedia articles if you want?
@@alexpotts6520 The policy and arguements for Wales being self sufficient aren't ever bought up either. Liverpool Manchester and Birmingham all get there water from Wales and the Welsh don't see any of that money. Villages were flooded to bring water to England and when the villagers went to protest in Liverpool and Manchester they were spat on. Am I still the one who is ill informed?
@@dafuzzymonster "Why don't other people have exactly the same pet obsessions as me?"
@@alexpotts6520 you sound like posher and more repressed mark Corrigan lol
How much do you think it would cost to send your fridge to the Caribbean lol 😂 🤣
Should be an interesting outcome. The regional vote 4th spots are very much at play in 4 of the 5 regions (mid Wales not so much). Gunna write a blog prediction about it next week.
For some further context of the independence movement now in YesCymru membership:
February 2020 - 2,500
October 31st 2020 - 15,000
Novemeber 1st 2020 - 16,000
Its increasing at a rapid rate, and its increasing every time Westminster does something concerning (spikes with the Barnard Castle fiasco, denial of furlough to Wales, England denying feeding poor children, etc).
just curious how will wales support itself if it becomes independent?
@@Wroe im guessing you mean in the context of economics - if you go onto the YesCymru website they have a whole set out worked out my economic experts :) its too long an explanation to put in a yt comment x
If there is no majority then a coalition between labour and Plaid has to be extremely likely doesn't it?
Thats exactly what happened lol
I would have liked a small presentation of plaid cymru as we don t often hearablut them, at least from my perspective
Yeah, I have no idea where they stand on the political spectrum, and after this video I still have no idea.
@@JimCullen They are a bit more to the left than the SNP and if they win the election they're promising a indy referendum by 2026
@@JimCullen like labour but slightly less authoritarian and slightly more stupid (anglophobic, indy, regressive).
Still a better pick than labour.
@@dww6 Can we cut out the "anglophobic" bullshit please?
welsh fanatics, who want independence
Would you be able to do a video covering the Northern Independence Party? They're currently coming in third in Hartlepool behind Conservatives and Labour, I think it's an interesting new facet of English politics that's being heavily overlooked
Will be very interesting to see how results are affected with the voting age down to 16.
I mean turnout* not results.
I suspect there just aren't enough 16- and 17-year-olds for the patterns to be visible among other voters. Will have to wait a few months for pollsters to work it out by asking those young people directly.
apparently there isn't a lot of that age that has registered to vote, but there's no clear proof yet
Most folk when they're that young just share the political views of their family. Most don't fully understand the world yet, let alone to vote on it. So, my guess is we'll see a low turnout with most voting Labour/Greens.
@@madness1931 You’d be surprised.
thanks so much for this video! seen so many videos still refering to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) as the 'Welsh Assembly' so it's great to see the correct terms being used, keep up the good work!
Also, my guess is we'll see a Labour-Plaid coalition or maybe a confidence and supply arrangement on May 6th, they have already been in a coalition in the 2007 Senedd election so wouldn't be suprised if it happened again! Very different political landscape today conpared to 2007 though will be very interesting to see!
Thank you for that.
Please note that the father (Henry VII) and grandfather of Henry VIII were Welsh.
Part Welsh, but under a Welsh name, yes. Is Tudor the most famous Welsh last name?
@@davidpeterson5647 probably either that or Jones
Tudor is an anlinization of Tudur
Do you think Netflix will be interested in us?
Could you guys do a rundown on the local mayoral elections? In particular, West Yorkshire is having its democratic mayor elected, so that might be something to focus on
Yay thank you for covering Wales
Tories in coalition with Labour, i have never seen such cooperation since Atlee's Labour Parliamentary Coalition with Churchill's Tories in WW2.
That was a coalition with the Liberal Party as well.
I am glad you saying please make sure you vote. I say to people remember people died to give you the right to vote.
A vote for Plaid Cymru is a vote against Brexit. A lot of people don't realise that they owe their lives to Brexit, if we hadn't left the EU when we did we would still be waiting for a vaccine appointment well into next year, by then thousands more would still be dying. The beauracrats of Brussels are more concerned about losing their salaries than their citizens.
Clown. That's moronic. We're getting on fine here in Ireland and a way lower death toll than in Britain Per head.
@@taffywales2143 Europese vaccinations is now actually going faster then Britain's
@@thepinebros.1873 More B_____T from Brussels, and the gullible believe, never learn.
@@thepinebros.1873 What a pineapple.🥴
Labour is an English funded, Westminster based political party. Welsh-born will NOT vote Labour. The problem is that more and more English are living in Wales.
Ah yes, I wonder, kick out the English? Because of course, the best political movements in history always pursued xenophobic policies, I remember now. Twat.
Great video!
Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru have been in coalition previously (2007-2011) and have had deals over budgets and legislation since then (no party has ever won a majority), so they have a history of working together. So I would not rule out another Welsh Labour-Plaid coalition. There certainly be some kind of deal between the two in anycase.
Jack where’s the Wales pin badge ? :(
"Every primary school child's favourite historical figure"
More recent polling suggests that Labour might win more seats than previously projected and be able to get a majority in the same way as last time. If they don't, a coalition with Plaid Cymru is plausible and has in fact happened before, in 2007
will polls I tend to treat it as +3% or -3% so who knows at this point
Not a single mention of the growing support for independence?
More Decentralized government - The UK’s looking more like a republic.
You still have a monarch, so by definition you are the exact opposite of a republic.
Not a republic but more and more like a federation. Which we aren't, but we are confusingly fractured for a unitary state.
A coalition between Labour and Plaid isn’t unthinkable, they haven’t been in coalition within the Senedd before now.
Independence is now a major issue in Wales for the first time and Plaid and Labour have completely opposing views on the matter. This could be enough of a disagreement to kill any chance of a coalition
@@tomosprice8136 with half of Labour voters supporting independence I wouldn’t say it’s a big enough issue to stop them working together. And Drakeford is pro a referendum is Plaid wins a majority so again wouldn’t hinder them working together.
@@AndrewCreak1996 Drakeford is not pro referendum, he and his entire party voted against Wales being allowed to hold one last year. Many of Labour's supporters are pro indy, but the party leadership is dead set against it
When will you be getting more Season 2 pins with legs?????
Blair is still a fool.
@@mihangelap-williams9871 "Bring democracy," how can that be when Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour want to rejoin the federal intentions of the European Union? It won't happen, P/C and W/L coalition plans will see us shackeld to federalism and we wont be free I assure you.
Brilliant video, it is important for people in Wales to vote in this election.
yes as turnouts in Wales over the years have been incredibly low
@@OwainGaming
Sadly there are lots in wales who don't see a point in the Senedd.
@@thatoneguy3058 there have been some debate over this and someways to encourage youths like the youth parliament etc
And if you vote Plaid Cymru or Welsh Labour we will be tied down to deprived areas handouts like the last 20 years, it's these grants and lottery support that's been carrots for votes,I remember free bully beef and out of date butter, suckers all of us, now the EU own us, we deserve better, our young deserve stability and security not social security, a solid plan to bring industries back, long term employment not zero hours supported with benefits, a decent wage to give us the will to do well, our politicians earn thousands and are secure because they have stiched us good and proper, brexit frightens politicans because they will be accoutable and have to deliver their promises.
could u do a video on the manifestos of each party?
Spanish slate on Welsh roofs, I've seen it all now, care of Plaid Cymru.
@@taffywales2143 That doesn't answer anything.
@@internetual7350 It answers a lot, nearly 5years since the Welsh gave their answer and Plaid Cymru's politicans are still colluding with their masters in Brussels to give preference to inferior slate on social housing estates while a locally based slate quarry struggles to keep their employees in work. It is vital that voters get to know what our local Plaid Cymru's politicans are willing to do to keep the EU sweet.
@@taffywales2143 He was asking about the parties manifestos...
i do think plaid will do well this election. i was more interested in labour coz if we have no idea what they said theyd do we cant tell if they did well
Just a suggestion for the typography. Use small letters and increase the leading. The bolden Capital letters just made it very hard to read for long texts. Which is not helped by your tight leading.
And if you are doing a bullet point, aligned left don’t centralised, you can’t see anything.
Why can’t they use Rank-choice instant runoff voting for the constituency vote?
I think at that point it sort of gets a bit too complicated.
At that time, having AMS was already quite advanced. Notice the UK general election still uses FPTP. Adding that extra level of complexity was probably too ambitious. I do agree they could try adding it now. Some constituencies are won with just pluralities, some in the low 20% range which is insane.
Electoral reform in the UK usually sends people to sleep. Those in power tend to not want to change things that propelled them to power - even if it might be smart for them in the long run.
@@theuglykwan As a non Brit it was extremely stupid in hindsight for Labour to campaign against alternative voting. It could have prevented all the Brexit and Scottish independence shenanigans.
@@Paranoid_Found Labour could have instituted it when they were in power and they pledged to do some electoral reform. They got drunk on power due to their landslides and thought they were unassailable.
The party still doesn't have PR as a policy platform, that's the place we are at. With Scotland gone, Labour will find it even less likely to be in power. Maybe they will get control one day when Conservatives screw up enough, at that point I wonder if Labour will change the voting system or if they will still tempt fate.
8:40 I wouldn't say it's accurate to call a possible Plaid-Labour coalition 'incredibly unlikely' given that they've been in government together before and neither party has ruled out a coalition with each other after this election.
Can you do a video about jersey elections?
My parents would have is story too. "We showed them how to sing and now we can show them how to govern", my Dad said. I hope.(Good luck from beyond the sea)
American here. Could someone please explain to me why Plaid Cymru couldn't form a coalition. I understand that Plaid Cymru wants more autonomy if not outright independence from the UK. However, don't they match up fairly well on most economic and social issues? Is the independence issue too big for them to join together and form a coalition? Or is there other issues dividing them? As an American all I know coalition building is how to use them to drop 2000 lbs of freedom on unsuspecting insurgents.
Thank you for covering us! Weird mix here: I'm a proud Welshman, Liberal and Unionist. So glad you covered Drakeford. He's boring and predictable right now, which is nice because it's mostly fueled by science. The only problem is it feels very unaccountable as the Parliament is being pretty useless and powers aren't defined enough.
I'm so confused as to how to vote and I think most people are!
Plaid Cymru will tie us down to deprived areas handouts like the last 20 years, it's these grants and lottery support that's been carrots for votes, we deserve better, our young deserve stability and security not social security, a solid plan to bring industries back, long term employment not zero hours supported with benefits, a decent wage to give us the will to do well, our politicians earn thousands and are secure because they have stiched us good and proper, brexit frightens politicans because they will be accoutable and have to deliver their promises.
I never realised how weak the Welsh Assembly was compared to the Scottish Parliament as recently as 2011. I thought their status was in sync until the Scotland Act 2016
We would sink if it was not for England.Scots have whisky,Harris tweed,Paisley,Argyle and the Lock Ness beastie,You can survive easy on youre tod,All be got is uh hum hum!!
They didn't talk about the potential composition of parliament for very long LOL
If you don’t want cars for private people vote Labour and drakeford and if you want public transport vote Labour Party and drakeford it that simple.
Ahh yes, great idea encourage people to vote after registration to vote has closed. Big brain move.
Vote for the only non English party. Vote Plaid.
Video on welsh independence?
ruclips.net/video/qGT-A3YUHwE/видео.html
@@TLDRnews Scotland ENGLAND border should move SOUTH to River Tees ~ River Kent !!!
It's also *really* important to note that this is the first election where not just 16&17 year olds can vote but *anyone* living in Wales!
Yes, even if they're from another country outside the UK!
This was introduced by Jeremy Miles MS to make *everyone* in our country a part of our democracy; one of the first in the world.
Also, a pedantic point but:
there's only one Senedd, lads - it's officially 'Senedd Cymru/ Welsh Parliament' and known as the Senedd. To say 'Welsh Senedd' is like saying 'Irish Dail'; a tautology.
Understandable that you might call it the Welsh Assembly back when it was called that but now it's called either 'Senedd' or 'Welsh Parliament'.
Does anyone have a link to that results?Video because I can't find it?
The Welsh Senedd is only really representing South Wales. You only have to look how many Senedd members are in South Wales. It should be called the South Wales Senedd.
6:13 what is the difference between addictions member system and proportional system? I though these two are almost the same thing.
A couple things
first past the post is still used in both votes, so tactical voting still can come into effect.
This system is almost a balance between a proportional system and the Main UK parliamentary system. So I might really like my local labour candidate, but in party politics like Plaid more, so I vote locally for the labour guy and regionally for Plaid
Additional member system is basically this.
You have two sections to the vote, constituency seats and list seats. Each is voted on separately, though there's nothing stopping you selecting the same party for both votes (and most voters do).
The constituency seats are just first-past-the-post, like in UK general elections. Simple enough.
The list vote divides Wales up into five regions. The list vote in each region is proportional, like the EU elections, but with one key difference - it takes into account the constituency results for the region. That means if (say) the Labour Party wins all the constituencies in the region (which it tends to do in the valleys in particular), then that will make it much harder for them to win list seats. The aim of this is to make the overall result more proportional.
These systems are much better than FPTP in terms of fairness, but they are not perfectly proportional. For example, in 2011 the SNP scored an overall majority in Holyrood, despite the party getting only 45% of the vote in constituencies, and 44% on the list (ie less than half).
Additional member system, half are elected proportionally, half are elected by region. When you make your vote, you get two choices one for your local constituency which is chosen on a plurality, and another for a larger region where the vote is divided up.
@@alexpotts6520 Is that because of electoral threshold? Smaller parties didn’t get any seats because they fail to hit the threshold?
@@Steven-fv8xw It might simply be because the first vote is still first past the post. Some UK seats have been won by the mid 20% range due to fragmented support. In my constituency for the Scottish Parliament, the last election had 3 parties with a vote share in the 30% range.
Labour used to be dominant in Scotland. The rise of SNP has split the vote from the left as SNP slowly replaces Labour. That means that some races that were between 2 parties are now between 3 parties.
So two options for coalition: A Social Democratic Coalition (Lab-Plaid Cymru) or A Unionist Coalition (Lab-Con)
I think the former is at least more likely, (aside from the independence promise) most of plaids plan lines up with that of labours and Labour has formed a coalition with plaid once before
@@slayersam1 Yep plus there's no real need for a unionist coalition unless Plaid end up being the largest party which is extremely unlikely. Plus even if that did happen I don't think Drakeford would be happy to work with the tories considering the way he's talked about the Westminster gov during the pandemic
@@jproud6 and considering the fact that (at least where I am) the leaflets from conservatives actively attack labour
With the boost in independence and yes cymrus increased social media presence, I can imagine a boost to Plaid. Now that brexits over, I cannot see conservatives taking any major gains.
Tories are likely to take several extra seats versus 2016, if only because UKIP aren't a thing any more and those right-wing voters have to go somewhere.
oh buddy are you in for a shock :/
Some seats which fell to the Conservatives in 2019 are touted to potentially be won by the Tories in the Senedd, as many UKIP members move to the conservatives and Plaid gains votes from Labour but not enough for the seat, hence many seats where the tories have the most votes as the left is split between Plaid and Labour.
Generally the Tory gains were very much over brexit. Throw in younger voters which tend to lean more left Vs the older generation, I'd suspect less ukip and Tory overall. Younger people tend to vote left wing and with the surge in independence even right wing may end up going plaid if they are nationalistic towards Wales. Obviously this is all us guessing on the current lay of the land so there is that.
@@garethhillary2302 I don't see the Conservatives losing all their support this quickly. And I also think that the whole YesCymru thing can be an echo chamber making it seem more popular than it actually is (and I say that as a supporter and a member myself). If independence was as popular as all the polls seem to suggest, you would see a very strong shift towards Plaid Cymru at this election, and I just don't see any evidence for that happening - certainly not in large enough numbers. A lot of people, particularly Labour supporters, claim to be pro-independence, but independence isn't as important to them as voting Labour.
Labour has formed a coalition with Plaid Cymru once before iirc
England invaded Wales and annexed Scotland. Some voluntary political union Eh?
You clearly know nothing about history.
This was a good summary of the Senedd but It would have been useful to hear more about the issues in this election - the balance was too much towards explaining the history of devolution rather than the current situation.
I don't agree with the statement at 8:45 about as possible coalition with Plaid Cymru being 'incredibly unlikely' - Labour was in coalition with Plaid Cymru between 2007 and 2011 so I don't see why it would be unlikely to happen again. In fact, it's widely assumed that is what will happen if Labour falls well short of a majority.
No-one bought the sofa yet, then?
Coalition with plaid is not unlikely, its happened before.
"Bring democracy," how can that be when Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour want to rejoin the federal intentions of the European Union? It won't happen, P/C and W/L coalition plans will see us shackeld to federalism and we wont be free I assure you.
@@taffywales2143 i think you've replied to the wrong person as none of that made the slightest bit of sense.
@@taffywales2143 It is currently only policy of Plaid Cymru to rejoin the European Union through the Independence of Wales. Not gonna comment on whether the EU is federalist (but it being federalist is better than the “Superstate” touted by Brexiteers, so an improvement I guess). Plus if the UK doesn’t reform (potential become a federation itself) it may break up, so Fed may save the UK, but idk. Indeed issues with a PC / WL coalition is over a independence referendum wanted by PC making a coalition potentially harder to form. As Labour is currently unionist, although there are increased support for Welsh independence in Labour and Wales as a whole, with some Labour candidates actively promoting Independence. But compared to a WL / Tory coalition, a PC / WL is more likely or another election.
Plaid Cymru is acting harder this election, they’re saying that they won’t be just a junior partner in a coalition. They have prepared to strongly negotiate a coalition, likely demanding a independence referendum in return for a coalition. In addition the previous coalition arrangement didn’t work too well for Plaid Cymru as they lost seats in 2011 despite being in coalition. Tldr PC / WL coalition is the most likely but it will be a harder one to form than the previous (One Wales) coalition.
@@dankjae Adam Price has already said that an independence referendum is not the price of a coalition.
Two mistakes. Firstly, the Acts of Union under Henry VIII were not acts uniting Wales with England, but acts uniting the Principality of Wales with some of the Welsh Marcher lordships, replacing their individual legal systems with English Common Law, and having the whole of Wales minus Monmouthshire become one single self-administering unit in judicial matters, with the centre of this administration based in Ludlow. This would continue to be the case until the 19th century. To say then that Wales became just another part of England under Henry VIII is therefore incorrect. Secondly, although a coalition between Labour and the Conservatives is unthinkable, a coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru has happened before (it's what gave us that 2011 referendum you mentioned) and can hardly be described as "unlikely".
It's pronounced SEH NETH
With the 'dd' the equivalent of 'th' as in 'there'.
@@andrewjones-productions I think in this case the 'th' sound is a bit softer. Like feaTHer.
It’s better than the last video so give them some credit, but yeah not fully there yet.
I just hope everybody remembers to vote, people like Lloyd George wanted the Welsh Senedd
Vote Liberal then!
None of the recent polls show Labour anywhere near 7 seats short of a majority. Most show them 2-4 seats short (I haven’t seen any recent projections where Labour are on
Polling has gone up and down constantly as it is unclear how Covid and Brexit have an impact on turnout, leading to underestimating or overestimating certain groups of people, in addition to uncertainty of how many 16 to 17 year olds turn up. It is clear that Labour is likely to fall short of a majority and lose seats tho.
What is wrong from the start no proportionate representation voting system.
Our system is completely different. We use ticks.
So why is a colaition of Labour and Plaid Cymru unlikely? Aren't they both social-democratic?
Maybe a bit more background on their political goals and differences would be interesting.
See in 'Murica. That Independent and single Liberal, would've been bought before Labor could get to them.
Our politicians have price tags, and we rollback prices like Walmart.
High quality content in 4K 60fps :)
Why is a Labour - PC coalition out of the question? Their policies don't seem that far apart
They disagree about independence
Sure, though there are 'bigger fish to fry' right this minute, and they'd probably both rather work together than work with the Cons or minority rule. They could probably compromise on calling for a bit more devolution for now.
@@MichaelWarman I could definitely see them agreeing to vote together on many key issues, but I don't think a formal coalition will happen this time
The first minister done well, its a shame he's a unionist
You didn't convince me ;)
16 year old? We are seriously having children vote?
They are not children. Some 16 year olds pay taxes and some are in the military, they have a right to vote.
So when will the Welsh Greens breakaway from the English Greens and work the D'Hondt system for them instead of against ?
Greens have recently announced they support Welsh indy and the polls show they are extremely close to winning regional seats over Abolish
The D'hondt system was invented in Belgium; you don't pronounce the "h". Besides that, your pronunciation was good.
So is it ‘dont’ or more like ‘de-ont’?
I’m assuming the latter?
@@gamriii it's the first actually. The name originates basically from "de hond" meaning the dog. Through time, the name got shortened and was pronounced more and more compact, ending up with this honestly odd spelling and phonetically unusual pronunciation.
In this word, when pronouncing the "h" is non-existent.
Why no Welsh pin? You have a Scottish one, An Ireland one but no Welsh or Northern Ireland.
Who will be first to leave the UK Scotland, Wales, or N Ireland?
Os dych chin byw yng nghymru, pleidleisio plaid cymru.
Dim diolch. Dw i'n pleidleisio am Abolish neu Ceidwadwyr. Yn bendant nid Plaid (Brenin y Wokes) Cymru. Er gwaetha pawb y phopeth!
Can you make a Welsh pin badge plz
Is Senedd related the word Senate, or is it just a false cognate?
Yes it's related. Welsh adopted the word from Latin.
@@Psyk60 thank you. It makes sense I suppose, Wales was part of the Roman Empire.
The 'dd' at the end is pronounced more like a 'th' sound. So proper pronunciation would produce a 'Sen-eth' , exactly as you suppose.
@@CaersethVarax what I do know about Welsh is that I don't know enough to even attempt to pronounce things from seeing them spelled. :D
For any Welsh people who are unsure of who they're going to vote for, google "myvotechoice" (all 1 word) - it's a free platform that asks you a series of questions to determine your standing (similar to the Political Compass)
cornwall next?
What is the manifesto of political parties in this election?
Basically:
Labour - Nothing Changes
Plaid Cymru - Independence
Conservatives - Do what England does
Abolish - Become England
I don’t see why people want Welsh independence. Wales pays £29.5 billion in tax but the U.K. spends £43 billion so wales is gaining £13billion from tax alone
We have practically no power over tax currently and do not keep the profits from natural resources sourced in Wales. Also we pay (as a proportion of UK spending) an astronomically huge amount on defence for a country our size as well as contributing to English vanity projects like HS2, refurbished Westminster and Buckingham Palace. As an independent country our spending could be dramatically reduced almost overnight with little to no negative consequences for people living in Wales.
@@tomosprice8136 well if wales makes £30 billion in tax’s and it costs £43 to run wales I don’t see how it’d have no effects and how could we afford our own defence, nhs, research, education (bad enough now with funding from the U.K.) and we pretty much have no Industry here.
@@jamesvincent1567
1) Defence spending would be slashed (we would no longer be paying for nukes, submarines, aircraft carriers and overseas bases) we'd probably only need a small defence force like Ireland has.
2) The 40bn figure you quote is an estimate, nobody knows exactly how much tax is raised in Wales because many businesses that operate in Wales are registered in England, so pay they tax in England (Wales is not a separate tax authority like Scotland so they don't have to register how much they raised in Wales) this makes a large portion of the Welsh economy effectively invisible.
3) The rest we'd borrow, like every other country on planet Earth does (including the UK, which has a debt worth more than the entire economy)
@@tomosprice8136 so we’d just go in debt nice and no it’s it’s a figure from 2016 wales tax payers paid 30 billion and the U.K. paid 43 billion is what it cost for wales but it’s cheaper to live in wales than England so a lot of people live in wales but work in England paying tax to wales
@@jamesvincent1567 every country on Earth is in debt. It isn't necessarily a problem
Cymru incorrectly pronounced also.
The only way Labour will remain in power in Wales is if the opposing vote is split between the Tories and abolish the Welsh assembly. The right are normally more savvy than to split there vote like that
That is amazing how Brexit won by more of a margin than that of Wales devolution.
Could you make a video about and the campaign's, coalitions, and media stunts that must have gone on for years about the people who voted NO and tried to overturn the result or to have a another reffurendum? I genuinely think you should because it would be incredibly interesting to see!
Or did it not happen.
I think it's important because so much damage has been done to this country due to strong and powerful anti Brexit campaigns.
I like to know what happened after the Wales' even closer devolution result came through 👍